Compensation Picks Strategy?

[bulldogtragic]

Mid/Late first rounder for Ward and mid/late third rounder for Reid.

Is the draft deep enough? Should we be holding on them for future opportunities?

Thoughts?

[Yankee Hotel Foxtrot]

I thought I read somewhere that compensation picks from this year cannot be used in this year's draft.
Even if this is not the case, I definitely would not be activating them this year with GWS already having had a healthy slurp from the talent pool plus their slew of picks.

[Sockeye Salmon]

I thought I read somewhere that compensation picks from this year cannot be used in this year's draft.
Even if this is not the case, I definitely would not be activating them this year with GWS already having had a healthy slurp from the talent pool plus their slew of picks.

They can be but first rounders will be taken after the first round regardless. Not worth it.

[chef]

Hope we hold onto them for a couple of seasons.

[Scraggers]

Definitely hold on to both ... This draft is way too compromised.

[mjp]

I would be tempted to use the Reid pick now.

[Drunken Bum]

I would be tempted to use the Reid pick now.

What's your reasoning for that mjp?

[mjp]

It is a 3rd rounder - normally it is going to be between 40 and 60-odd in any case (allowing for father-sons, priority picks etc). Using it now will make a difference of 10 players or so...at that point in time, you are rolling the dice anyway...so why wait?

[Greystache]

I would be tempted to use the Reid pick now.

Agreed, with every team waiting for the first uncompromised draft to use their compensation picks, the Reid pick will be worth about as much this year as next. Also with a number of senior players coming to an end in the next year or two we need to start rebuilding now otherwise we'll completely fall away.

[w3design]

I would be tempted to use the Reid pick now.

Hold them both this year Reid's pick would be 58 but in a normal draft it would pick 44 and everyone says that next year draft goes deep.

[Remi Moses]

Judging by the more draft savvy amongst us are saying I'd say keep it

[w3design]

If want to use any of the picks we need to notify the AFL by the 11th of november the year before we want to use it so it limits Tanking.

[azabob]

Judging by the more draft savvy amongst us are saying I'd say keep it

What I find interesting is that someone who works in the industry said to use the Reid pick this year.

[stefoid]

Use it next year.

Someone said they heard some recruiter say that this years draft had five '4 star' players in it whilst next year had ten '5 star' players. Some other recruiter was also rumoured to have said that after pick 30, this draft was bust.

Cant vouch for any of that, but thats what I read.

So a 9th or 10th position finish next year could potentially see us with two '5 star' players with our first two picks, Hunter with our second rounder and a crack at a couple more decent players with our 3rd rounders.

[Drunken Bum]

Although i don't think it will happen I'd be tempted to hold onto both our compo picks for a few years even. I just hope the club makes a realistic appraisal of where we are going to finish and has a good look at the talent on offer before they decide to use them just because we have them. Especially if the majority of compo picks are going to be activated next year as we all suspect they will.
The Ward compo pick especially has the potential to get us a champion player that we can build a premiership side around if activated at the right time even if there would be some element of luck involved. I pray we don't piss it away.

[Sockeye Salmon]

It is a 3rd rounder - normally it is going to be between 40 and 60-odd in any case (allowing for father-sons, priority picks etc). Using it now will make a difference of 10 players or so...at that point in time, you are rolling the dice anyway...so why wait?

I doubt we'll delist that many.

We also have pick 70 if we want another pick.

Keep it til next year.

[Maddog37]

I would keep it as it may be useful in future trade negotiations with the new clubs.

[The Cowshed]

Save it next year when we finish second bottom...

[GVGjr]

Save it next year when we finish second bottom...

Expecting an extremely poor year?

[mjp]

I doubt we'll delist that many.



...and that is what worries me the most.

[Sockeye Salmon]

...and that is what worries me the most.

We have to leave someone to delist next year

[mjp]

Use it next year.

Someone said they heard some recruiter say that this years draft had five '4 star' players in it whilst next year had ten '5 star' players. Some other recruiter was also rumoured to have said that after pick 30, this draft was bust.



Does that mean that Coniglio and Patton and Longer and Wingard aren't '5 Star' players? And now O'Meara is in as well - supposedly the best 94 birthday going around - and he isn't 5 star either?

Comments like this drive me crazy...look back at the draft history - there are only 30 players (at best) in EVERY draft...and they are rarely selected with the first 30 picks. Look at our own list - aside from Cooney and Griffen who were top 5 selections, where were the rest of our good players chosen? Cross? Morris? Boyd? Lake?

All of the kids have thorns - pick 1, 21 or 51 - in every draft.

[Sockeye Salmon]

Does that mean that Coniglio and Patton and Longer and Wingard aren't '5 Star' players? And now O'Meara is in as well - supposedly the best 94 birthday going around - and he isn't 5 star either?

Comments like this drive me crazy...look back at the draft history - there are only 30 players (at best) in EVERY draft...and they are rarely selected with the first 30 picks. Look at our own list - aside from Cooney and Griffen who were top 5 selections, where were the rest of our good players chosen? Cross? Morris? Boyd? Lake?

All of the kids have thorns - pick 1, 21 or 51 - in every draft.

I have no idea if this draft is any good or not - read the phantom drafts, there's 100 gun kids out there - but some drafts absolutely are duds. There were about 5 decent players in 2003.

[mjp]

I have no idea if this draft is any good or not - read the phantom drafts, there's 100 gun kids out there - but some drafts absolutely are duds. There were about 5 decent players in 2003.

I agree with that...but you don't find that out for 5 years. Look at the 'legendary' draft of 2001...the top 10 featured Ball, Hodge, Judd and Bartel...along with Sam Power, Luke Molan, Graham Polak, David Hale, Ash Sampi and Xavier Clarke. And yep, Dal Santo, Stevie J, James Kelly and Sam Mitchell could be found...along with 29 other blokes you have never heard of.

2003 was a bad year I agree - but we got Cooney...and down after pick 50 you will find Sam Fisher, Daniel Jackson, Ben Hudson, Shane Tuck, Craig Callahan, Michael Rischitelli, Michael Johnson, Jacod Surjan, Josh Mahoney - all 100 game players I reckon and a couple of club B&F winners in there as well. So in what many believe was the WORST draft ever, I have just given you 9 blokes after pick 50 who have gone on to make significant contributions.

Don't know about you, but having Sam Fisher and Michael Rischitelli on our list right now I would have thought of as 'GOOD NEWS'. I wish I could find our 2002 playing list somewhere to give you a couple of extra blokes we could have gotten rid of to grab these two players in that terrible draft...

[Remi Moses]

Very Valid Points^^. Don't treat picks like confetti, beef up the recruiting dept Simon Garlick

[Topdog]

I wish I could find our 2002 playing list somewhere to give you a couple of extra blokes we could have gotten rid of to grab these two players in that terrible draft...

Not all but a good amount are here.

http://stats.rleague.com/afl/stats/2002.html#7

2003 so you can see who wasn't delisted (Hi Mr. Harrison)

http://stats.rleague.com/afl/stats/2003.html#7

also @ finalsiren

http://finalsiren.com/Fixture.asp?TeamID=7&SeasonID=2003&Go=Go
http://finalsiren.com/Fixture.asp?TeamID=7&SeasonID=2002&Go=Go

[stefoid]

Does that mean that Coniglio and Patton and Longer and Wingard aren't '5 Star' players? And now O'Meara is in as well - supposedly the best 94 birthday going around - and he isn't 5 star either?

Comments like this drive me crazy...look back at the draft history - there are only 30 players (at best) in EVERY draft...and they are rarely selected with the first 30 picks. Look at our own list - aside from Cooney and Griffen who were top 5 selections, where were the rest of our good players chosen? Cross? Morris? Boyd? Lake?

All of the kids have thorns - pick 1, 21 or 51 - in every draft.

Dont know. I think the minidraft players are considered as part of 2012, or maybe not part of either?

But drafts can be clearly massively different in quality, even if only in hindsight. Would you rather two mid first round picks in 2003 or 2008?

And the overwhelming consensus is that 2011 sucks and 2012 is sooper dooper.

However, Emma Q says the first 20 or so in 2011 are pretty safe bets - not so many superstars but a decent chance to get a good solid player.

I see what your saying, but we are talking about recruiters perceptions here and they are saying not that there categorically wont be gems picked late in this draft, but if there are, they will be unforseeable lucky strikes, and there will be less of them than in other drafts where the immediately identifiable talent runs deper.

[stefoid]

I think they are looking at 2012 to be similar if not better than 2008.

Have a look down the 2008 list and see what damage you can do with two mid-1st round picks, a 2nd round pick and two 3rd round picks.

say picks 9, 10, 35, 48, 49 youd have a good chance of picking 2 or 3 quality players I reckon.

But I think from what they are saying about 2011, the first 20 or so are decent chances and afer that...? lucky dip. Thats sounds in retrospect a lot like the 2007 draft.

With those picks listed above, you would have a good chance of picking up 1 or 2 decent players with your first two picks, and after that - random, low probability luck.


Heh, heh, just looking at 2007, we did very very very well to get rid of Jordan Macmahon for a pick inside the 'decent' top 20.

[mjp]

I am comfortable in saying that 1994 WA birthdays are a better 'group' than 93 WA birthdays - and I think the SA guys would say the same (based on u16's results)...but then again, the SA group at the 16's (we are talking the 2010 16's carnival here) had a bit of the man-child look about them.

I think the Vic Metro kids '93 group is better - and VC about the same.

Given twice as many kids get taken from Vic as anywhere else, all these comments about the 2012 super-draft are completely overblown.

[1eyedog]

Dont know. I think the minidraft players are considered as part of 2012, or maybe not part of either?

But drafts can be clearly massively different in quality, even if only in hindsight. Would you rather two mid first round picks in 2003 or 2008?

And the overwhelming consensus is that 2011 sucks and 2012 is sooper dooper.

However, Emma Q says the first 20 or so in 2011 are pretty safe bets - not so many superstars but a decent chance to get a good solid player.I see what your saying, but we are talking about recruiters perceptions here and they are saying not that there categorically wont be gems picked late in this draft, but if there are, they will be unforseeable lucky strikes, and there will be less of them than in other drafts where the immediately identifiable talent runs deper.

I think there is a decent chance to get a good solid player between picks 20-40 in any draft. Most of our good players are outside pick 20.

[1eyedog]

I think they are looking at 2012 to be similar if not better than 2008.

Have a look down the 2008 list and see what damage you can do with two mid-1st round picks, a 2nd round pick and two 3rd round picks.

say picks 9, 10, 35, 48, 49 youd have a good chance of picking 2 or 3 quality players I reckon.

But I think from what they are saying about 2011, the first 20 or so are decent chances and afer that...? lucky dip. Thats sounds in retrospect a lot like the 2007 draft.

With those picks listed above, you would have a good chance of picking up 1 or 2 decent players with your first two picks, and after that - random, low probability luck.


Heh, heh, just looking at 2007, we did very very very well to get rid of Jordan Macmahon for a pick inside the 'decent' top 20.

I wonder what Richmond (and Mark Stevens) think about our compensation pick next year:p

[Remi Moses]

I wonder what Richmond (and Mark Stevens) think about our compensation pick next year:p

There's more pain in the jordy pick yet Stevo!