No Sitting On The Fence - Where Will We Finish?

[The Coon Dog]

Where do you think we'll finish this season? Just pick one number, see how close you are if we look back at the end of the season.

I think we'll finish 14th, above GWS, Gold Coast, Port Adelaide & Brisbane. Can't see who kicks the goals & we lack speed, both by foot & in ball movement.

[GVGjr]

Good thread TCD.

I'll go with 12th.

- I've been concerned about the quality of our list for 3 years.
- Like TCD, I can't see how we can keep the scoreboard ticking over consistently enough.
- A lack of leg speed.

I'm confident that the Bulldog spirit will improve this year and that we will pick teams more around form and ethic rather than names and past achievements.

[The Underdog]

I've been thinking somewhere between 10th and 14th, so I'll say 13th, mainly for the reasons outlined by both GVG and TCD. I think too much relies on improvement of kids who aren't quite there and the comeback of guys like Cooney and Lake. There is a particular lack of elite class in the team which seperates the really good teams from the average. Plus not being sure what impact Morris will have on the season given where he's coming back from and it's not looking great. However I don't think it's going to be all negative. This will be a season where some kids start to get some games into them and hopefully we start building a base for a turnaround, particularly with a couple of early picks in the draft next year.

[always right]

I'm with you .......14th....but an encouraging 14th:)

[chef]

15th for me, I can see GC finishing above us.

[Ghost Dog]

Good thread.
- have some tough match ups before by.

- After the By - Port, Freemantle, Brisbane Melbourne and so on. (ets easier (maybe)

- younger players, some key injury hangovers

- good height in team. Good midfield. Average pace.

- As GVG said, a more balanced selection and some surprising position changes perhaps as BMAC stamps his authority.

9th. New coach to give us a bit of a lift.

[Daughter of the West]

15th for me, I can see GC finishing above us.

Ugh, how embarrassing would that be?

I say 10th. On a hunch.

[bornadog]

I will go with 11th, can't see us making the finals this year.

[Yankee Hotel Foxtrot]

Like most here so far, I expect a rough year results wise. I think 14th is around the mark.
I think we have a lot of promising talent, but concerned they are still one or two seasons away from being consistent performers.

[G-Mo77]

I picked 14th in the Ladder Predictor. (http://www.woof.net.au/forum/showthread.php?p=254443#post254443) I haven't seen anything from this squad that would change my mind from the start of the year so I'll stick with that.

I don't think our injured guns will be of much service this season. Everyone talks about Lake and Cooney but I think Morris is the biggest loss and I can't see him doing what he has done all his career after that horrible injury. We still rely far to much on the older section of our list and the younger section isn't anywhere near ready to carry. The gap seems very wide between the two and this season will bridge it closer but won't help our chances of winning more games in 2012. We'll win about 6 - 8 and % will keep us down if we are level on points with another team.

[OLD SCRAGGer]

I'm a "GLASS HALF FULL" kinda girl, so I'm saying (hoping) 6-8:D

[Ozza]

I think we'll be better than;

GWS, GC, Port, Brisbane, Adelaide, Melbourne - so by process of elimination - 12th.

[Dancin' Douggy]

I'm saying 14th as well. And I almost think we need it.
Not just for the draft picks either.
Although I guess we all know that the Callan Ward comp pick is linked directly to our 1st round pick.
ie. If we end up with draft pick number 4, the Judas pick becomes pick 5.

We need a good pruning of the list.
A spring clean.

[Sedat]

With no LTI's, a brutal pre-season that has the list in very good shape, and a favourable early draw, I can see us doing exactly what Essendon did last year - get off to a flyer and then struggle to find the line later in the season. Pencil in 8th for me.

[strebla]

I still expect to make it to 7th i our forward line Will get some help from our mids and am also thinking we will get a good year from Cooney.

[immortalmike]

10th for me. We'll win a few we shouldn't and lose a few we shouldn't and we'll finish about middle of the road. Unlike some I don't rate leg speed (it looks cool but rarely wins games) I'm more concerned about our skill level and the inexperience of our forwards but in saying that I feel we still have a fair bit of class to work with and if all goes right I can see us playing finals. If all goes wrong however the ladder could read;

16.Western Bulldogs
17.Port Adelaide
18.GWS

So in the MJP spirit of things are never as bad or good as they seem I'm sticking with 10th.

[Greystache]

10th for me, I don't think we'll be as bad as many think.

I'll think we'll be more aware of our limitations, play with more structure to accommodate for it, and rely less on individual brilliance which is actually our weakest area.

[BulldogBelle]

8th. But I think we'll have an extremely low percentage though which could just put us out of the finals.

We do have some good medium sized forwards with improvement in them immediately. Higgins, Sherman, Grant, Dahlhaus, Dickson (at a stretch)

Obviously our tall forward issues are well documented. Jones obviously looks fantastic, but we're asking far too much of him to pull us over the line at this stage.

Our midfield will struggle, but at least I don't think we'll get blown away anymore. We may have the slowest midfield in the competition if Cooney isn't playing and Griff is being belted from pillar to post. But if we can continually get it first, and wither down teams, we could perhaps gloss over some of our weaknesses.

Libba's elite hands and vision in traffic could be pivotal.

Our defense always looks quite reasonable, despite the tremendous loss of Morris and his up-hill battle to salvage the year at his best. Addison's disposal in the 1st NAB cup game was very clean and effective. Hargrave will really add another dynamic. We can expect more improvement in Williams, his confidence was high last year and he looked great. Markovic to build on his good year, and even half a Lake would add heaps. Hopefully Tutt takes off.

I try just to remain optimistic.

[BornInDroopSt'54]

We'll finish about 9th. Lake's sublime reading of the play and flight through the air will still help even if his body is not so fit. Higgins, Cooney to improve on 2011, as will team ethic and game plan under McCartney.

[Cyberdoggie]

I'm going for 6-7th.

In that large group of 6 or 7 teams that are 1 game apart and percentage.

A lot depending on injuries and how much we get out of Cooney and Lake but i think we showed last year that we were still able to compete without them, and i can't see us getting any worse than we were.

I think we've added to key areas and addressed our major weaknesses in our game plan,
whether that will be a success remains a concern, but i think we will have a better balance this year.

I'm quietly optimistic, but i also know too well that we aren't yet good enough to compete with the top 4 teams. Middle of the table once again but will enjoy watching the side this year without high expectations.

[Murphy'sLore]

I'll say 11th.

It was a bit disheartening to hear the Western Front radio ad this morning, featuring Cooney & Morris, neither of whom will probably manage stellar performances this year. :(

[Mantis]

I'm thinking about 14th.

Just think we have too many problems with our list at present. I think 2013 will be much of the same, possibly worse, before we start climbing again in 2014.

[Bulldog4life]

After only seeing two mini practice matches in slippery conditions it is a hard call. But I believe that the new game plan and the new voices...coaches...can see us fall into the eight. It all depends if we can get a good start to the season and if that is the case I say we will finish 7th to 8th. Heck we were favourites this time last year.:eek:

[Dazza]

13th

[Desipura]

11th, a couple of old guys will be playing 2nds by the end of the year as part of a push to get some more pace in the side.

[LongWait]

12th - while the club can't really say it publicly, I think that teaching the new game plan and developing our talent is more important than ladder position and that approach might cost us a couple of games. That said - we'd all love to see the team in the finals.

[hotdog]

We will finish above GWS and Port and maybe GC (but I would not be suprised if they improve out of sight) so I will say 16th. Despite this I am probably more interested in the development this year than I was hoping our aging team would be up for one last challenge last year. Bring it on!

[DragzLS1]

I am pretty confident that we will finsh 9th but will be pushing for 8th.

A top 4 team doesnt just drop to the bottom half of the table overnight.

I dont think our forward line will struggle as much as everybody is predicted either.

I think we will suprise a few teams and a few of our young players will step up due to the added responsibility.

AM looking forward to this season and just enjoy watching them give it a crack.

[Remi Moses]

12th
I see a few others just below moving ahead.

[The Bulldogs Bite]

15th.

-- Our skill level is probably the worst in the competition.
-- Limited goal kicking options
-- Over reliance on injured players (Lake, Cooney, Morris) and younger players who aren't quite ready yet.

I think we can improve quickly if we draft well this year.

[The Underdog]

I am pretty confident that we will finsh 9th but will be pushing for 8th.

A top 4 team doesnt just drop to the bottom half of the table overnight.I dont think our forward line will struggle as much as everybody is predicted either.

I think we will suprise a few teams and a few of our young players will step up due to the added responsibility.

AM looking forward to this season and just enjoy watching them give it a crack.

Which would be relevant if we were a top 4 team but we're not, we finished 10th. Which means we were a top 4 team that dropped to the bottom half in one year. And just to argue the point, in 2007 Port and West Coast finished 2nd and 3rd after rd 22. In 2008 13th and 15th respectively. Not overnight but proof that teams can fall off pretty quickly.
To agree with you though I am looking forward to this season and seeing what transpires.

[Topdog]

13th maybe 14th. Still ahead of Port, GC and now the GWS. Not sure who else will finish below us.

[Scraggers]

I'm hoping 8th, but realistically 10th.

I think there is a big drop from the top of the league to the bottom, but I don't see us right down the bottom this year.

In saying that ... Like Mantis, I think we will get worse before we get better.

[Bulldog Joe]

Again too much pessimism from the faithful.

I am tipping FIFTH with a chance of better.

We have a significantly better fixture than 2011 and I expect 6 wins from the first 8 (minimum)
We have (I think) less pre-saeson injury with Cooney and Lake just about ready to go and Hargrave an adequate replacement for Morris. Shaggy did look good in the NAB cup.
We will get improvement from Jones, Libba, Sherman, Tutt and Howard to name a few.

....and we will finish the home and away ahead of Collingwood.

[boydogs]

7th, Cooney and Lake back to make a big difference

[chef]

....and we will finish the home and away ahead of Collingwood.

Really?

I can't see that happening.

[Mantis]

....and we will finish the home and away ahead of Collingwood.

You're too funny BJ.

[Sedat]

We have a significantly better fixture than 2011 and I expect 6 wins from the first 8 (minimum)
Whilst I think we're a big chance to surprise a few teams in the first couple of months and hit the ground running, I can't see us maintain this momentum over the course of a long and punishing season. In order to make top 4-5, we'll need to win at least 14 games which IMO is beyond this group. We can certainly get 10-11 wins if we get a good run with injuries.

[Bulldog Joe]

....and we will finish the home and away ahead of Collingwood.


Really?

I can't see that happening.


You're too funny BJ.

Just remember where you saw it first.

I certainly hope the team aren't thinking along the lines of most of the supporters.

They need to believe.

Why can't we ?

[LostDoggy]

8th :)

[Maddog37]

Fifth for me. Behind cats hawks pies and a couple of interstaters or Carlton.

Or second last. Depends on injured players and their collective input. If finals are out of the picture early I expect a full on cull of older players and the kids to be thrown to the wolves.

[Eastdog]

I predict that will finish in 11th position. To be realistic I think we have lots of question marks (e.g. Forward Line) that will be shown up this season. This season I think we are in a rebuilding stage. There will be games I reckon that we are not expected to win but will win. It will be that kind of season I think. Im hoping though that we can return to the finals once again this season.

[AndrewP6]

12th-14th for mine. Too many ifs ("IF" Cooney comes good, "IF" Briza can repeat his AA form, "IF" Dale Morris can get back anywhere near his best, "IF" Higgins makes good on his potential.... etc etc etc. I can't see us kicking enough winning scores, and IMO we're in for a long year. *sigh*.

I keep reminding myself "The sun will still come up in the morning"... :)

[Go_Dogs]

I'm going with 10th.

If things go our way with key players form returning from injury and a few kids step up we'll be in contention for the 8, if things go badly it could get ugly. It'll probably be somewhere in the middle area.

[Before I Die]

I believe we will finish 5th. Not going to try and justify it as I don't believe that is the spirit of the thread. It is about making a bold prediction and revisiting it after the final round when the reasons for our success will be obvious to all. :)

[DOG GOD]

Im going with 13th...just cant see us kicking a winning score on too many occassions unfortunately. wouldnt surprise to see us drop to 16th though.

So 13th it is.

[GVGjr]

Where do you think we'll finish this season? Just pick one number, see how close you are if we look back at the end of the season.



12th-14th for mine.

So 13th for you?

[Flamethrower]

It will take half the season to get Macca's new game plan down pat, and missing the Glove early on combined with Lake taking a while to recapture his best form will see us struggle early on before coming home with a wet sail to just miss the finals - 10th for me.

[Ghost Dog]

I believe we will finish 5th. Not going to try and justify it as I don't believe that is the spirit of the thread. It is about making a bold prediction and revisiting it after the final round when the reasons for our success will be obvious to all. :)

Good on you. Let's hope so.

[Hotdog60]

I'm the eternal optimist, 5th for me for no particular reason. In my mind we can beat all the other teams any day of the week. It just depends on who turns up to play.:D

[kruder]

An industrious 12th for me....

I think there are so many Ifs and buts with our group at the moment in which I wouldn't be suprised If we finished anywhere between 8-15.

[LostDoggy]

1st. More hope than any logic.

[F'scary]

From reading the reports of posters on the pre-season, it seems that we will most likey be a more defensive, lower scoring side that works the boundary and our winning strategy will be to keep the opposition's score lower than ours as opposed to the our score higher than the opposition's which was Eade's strategy. Therefore we won't have a great percentage and we are not likely to blow the competition's mind and capture imaginations as we did several times in the past 7 years. GWS, Gold Coast, Port definitely worse than us. Hmmm, that's about 15th. But I feel we have the potential to surprise so am not ruling out sneaking into the 8.

[LostDoggy]

10th for me. We'll win a few we shouldn't and lose a few we shouldn't and we'll finish about middle of the road. Unlike some I don't rate leg speed (it looks cool but rarely wins games) I'm more concerned about our skill level and the inexperience of our forwards but in saying that I feel we still have a fair bit of class to work with and if all goes right I can see us playing finals. If all goes wrong however the ladder could read;

16.Western Bulldogs
17.Port Adelaide
18.GWS

So in the MJP spirit of things are never as bad or good as they seem I'm sticking with 10th.

This 10th would be a good performance for us this year, and provide a good stepping stone for 2013.

[AndrewP6]

So 13th for you?

Haha... yes, OK, I'll take that!

[LostDoggy]

Somewhere below Geelong. Somewhere above GWS.......if you want me to be specific.

[FrediKanoute]

Range of 12th to 5th. We will struggle to kick big scores, but similarly I think wew ill become harder and harder to score against, so the 2 cancel each other out. We should beat win 8 games comfortably and up to 12 games realistically. I don't think we are as bad as some have us at, though much will depend on a few.

[OLD SCRAGGer]

1st. More hope than any logic.

love this :d:d

[bornadog]

1st. More hope than any logic.

Love it:)

[DragzLS1]

From reading the reports of posters on the pre-season, it seems that we will most likey be a more defensive, lower scoring side that works the boundary and our winning strategy will be to keep the opposition's score lower than ours as opposed to the our score higher than the opposition's which was Eade's strategy. Therefore we won't have a great percentage and we are not likely to blow the competition's mind and capture imaginations as we did several times in the past 7 years. GWS, Gold Coast, Port definitely worse than us. Hmmm, that's about 15th. But I feel we have the potential to surprise so am not ruling out sneaking into the 8.

St Kilda was playing this defensive style and it took them to the finals.

The press is soo high up the ground now that it leaves big space past half way. If we are hard at the ball and defend well then I dont see why we cant kick it over the back of the press when hitting the opposition on the counter attack letting grant and dalhause use there pace in a foot race with there bigger, heavier backs to win the ball.. I like our odds if we do this :)

If we are able to win a few games against the better opposition with this kind of attack then I see us sneaking into 8th.!

Bring on the season already!!

[LostDoggy]

Heart says we can make top 8, but the head says otherwise. Ill go 13th

[Mantis]

St Kilda was playing this defensive style and it took them to the finals.



They also had Riewoldt and Milne playing up forward who would kick 100 goals between them each year.

Who will do that for us?

[Sedat]

They also had Riewoldt and Milne playing up forward who would kick 100 goals between them each year.

Who will do that for us?
Even when they were almost unbeatable, they never did get much scoreboard return from their midfielders. Cooney and Griffen alone pose more of a scoreboard threat than the plethora of Saints mids. Your point about our forward line lack of goal scoring power compared to St Kilda during their defensive heyday is very valid though.

[Perthwoofa]

I will go 8th I think they will just scrape through.

[DragzLS1]

They also had Riewoldt and Milne playing up forward who would kick 100 goals between them each year.

Who will do that for us?

Gia for 1, the other is an unknown.. I would hope our midfield may be able to provide that little bit extra on the score board but we will just have to wait and see..

Still Riewoldt and Milne took St Kilda to the top 4! I am only talking about making it to 8th so I wasnt expecting to be as damaging as they were in there prime.

[immortalmike]

They also had Riewoldt and Milne playing up forward who would kick 100 goals between them each year.

Who will do that for us?

This year I think it's obvious we need to spread the goals around i.e., Gia(35-40), Sherman(25-30), Higgins (25-30), Jones(25-30), Dahlhaus (15-20), Grant (15-30). All these numbers are within each player's capability. It's unlikely to happen that way but I guess it's not completely beyond the realms of possibility that at least three of the aforementioned players have very good years. Especially consdering, Gia has had those kind of numbers 2 years running, Higgins and Sherman have done it before also, Jones kicked 19 goals last year, Dahlhaus averages a goal a game, and Grant kicked 29 in his first year of senior football and 16 in a horrible year. Definitely makes for an interesting year...

In future the club would probably hope Dahlhaus and Jones end up our Milne and Riewoldt. You know without all the alleged rape and penis photos...

[LostDoggy]

I think the list is starting to have a solid look to it with a few talls REPORTEDLY coming through, but none of them have really done it in a H&A season yet, and there's just too much of an injury cloud over our best players (Coons, Lake and Morris) for me to have any certainty about anything. Finals is probably a bridge too far, although next year may see us get closer, especially with another two first round picks and more time into the younger brigade.

I can't see us getting much better than last year, but I don't think we'll be much worse. My heart says 10th (well, actually 4th if Coons and Lake get back to their best), my head says 12th (well, actually 14th if Coons and Lake do nothing), so I guess I'll go with 11th, although I'm quite sure I'm dead wrong.

This is the least certain I've been about the team in a long time.

[the banker]

I feel the same level of confusion expressed by fellow woofers. Generally I think it will be a season of unpredictibility with surprise performances both negative and positive from a variety of teams. We are one of a block of about 10 teams that could have interchangeable seasons. So much depends on the health of your list (witness us last year) and the development of first, second, third and fourth year players. We along with other clubs have the unpredictabilty of a new coaching panel and the quality of their game plan and how the players are able to adapt and secure a game style with confidence. On paper we look better than last year. Barry is a loss but there were negatives to him as well.

Who's to know? - anywhere from 6th to 13th.

8th.

[LostDoggy]

On paper we look better than last year. .

You really think so? Not having a go, a genuine question. We were premiership favourites this time last year, so if on paper we're looking better, then we should still be a top 4 chance. After all, some people do think that the only reason we were crap last year was Rocket's outdated gameplan and losing Coons and Lake.

We'll see, won't we? If Coons and Lake come back in and we jump back up to third or something then we'll know that it WAS Rocket's fault and injuries all along.

[Ghost Dog]

I feel the same level of confusion expressed by fellow woofers. Generally I think it will be a season of unpredictibility with surprise performances both negative and positive from a variety of teams. We are one of a block of about 10 teams that could have interchangeable seasons. So much depends on the health of your list (witness us last year) and the development of first, second, third and fourth year players. We along with other clubs have the unpredictabilty of a new coaching panel and the quality of their game plan and how the players are able to adapt and secure a game style with confidence. On paper we look better than last year. Barry is a loss but there were negatives to him as well.

Who's to know? - anywhere from 6th to 13th.

8th.

Good to see a bit of optimism The Banker and 8th would be a great result.
More than anything, I hope we get through without any major injuries, just to get some continuity.
some great character in our group and coaching team Interesting times.

[Eastdog]

You really think so? Not having a go, a genuine question. We were premiership favourites this time last year, so if on paper we're looking better, then we should still be a top 4 chance. After all, some people do think that the only reason we were crap last year was Rocket's outdated gameplan and losing Coons and Lake.

We'll see, won't we? If Coons and Lake come back in and we jump back up to third or something then we'll know that it WAS Rocket's fault and injuries all along.

Im getting that impression this season that we might struggle as well Lantern. Coons and Lake we hope get back to there best but thats hoping. Cooney's knee is a problem and Lake is just coming back again after a long time out. We have young talent coming through but they need games before they make their mark on the AFL.

[LostDoggy]

Anywhere between 8-12

[The Coon Dog]

It will take half the season to get Macca's new game plan down pat

I see this often, so not having a go at you Flamethrower, but Geelong had a new coach last season & won nearly all of their games, Collingwood have a new coach this season & I don't expect them to take half a season to adapt.

[Sedat]

I see this often, so not having a go at you Flamethrower, but Geelong had a new coach last season & won nearly all of their games, Collingwood have a new coach this season & I don't expect them to take half a season to adapt.
You can add Essendon to that list as well. With little change in personnel, they very effectively overhauled their entire game plan in one pre-season, from the Knights-free-for-all to the ultra defensive forward pressure model under Hird/Thompson/McCartney. We actually saw it first-hand from Round 22 in 2010 to Round 1 in 2011.

[The Bulldogs Bite]

I see this often, so not having a go at you Flamethrower, but Geelong had a new coach last season & won nearly all of their games, Collingwood have a new coach this season & I don't expect them to take half a season to adapt.

Geelong weren't exactly coming off a poor season though, and neither is Collingwood.

Neither sides did (or in Collingwood's case, will) go through dramatic changes/transition periods.


You can add Essendon to that list as well. With little change in personnel, they very effectively overhauled their entire game plan in one pre-season, from the Knights-free-for-all to the ultra defensive forward pressure model under Hird/Thompson/McCartney. We actually saw it first-hand from Round 22 in 2010 to Round 1 in 2011.

I think Essendon is a good mention, much moreso than Geelong/Collingwood because they were so ordinary the year before, and with an entirely different game plan.

Our list is in serious transition though, so it's hard to see us mirror the Dons efforts unless Cooney and Lake got back to their best.

2014 could be VERY interesting if we draft well this year.

[Eastdog]

It's hard to predict how will go this season right now. To me my best indicator is to look where we are on the ladder after around 7-8 games into the season and that early on will give us an idea of what we need to do for the rest of the season in order to make the finals.

[Scraggers]

It's hard to predict how will go this season right now. To me my best indicator is to look where we are on the ladder after around 7-8 games into the season and that early on will give us an idea of what we need to do for the rest of the season in order to make the finals.

Splinter Bum !!! ... This is fence sitting personified ... Give a number; have a stab !! :D

[Ghost Dog]

I see this often, so not having a go at you Flamethrower, but Geelong had a new coach last season & won nearly all of their games, Collingwood have a new coach this season & I don't expect them to take half a season to adapt.

I guess the difference is, those new coaches had quite a bit to go on in terms of momentum of success.

[Eastdog]

Splinter Bum !!! ... This is fence sitting personified ... Give a number; have a stab !! :D

I did in an earlier post in this thread Scraggers. I predicted that we would finish in 11th position.

[LostDoggy]

I will go for 4th, if the players adopted the defeatist attitude, we do not have a hope.
With my rose coloured glasses on I'am thinking if we can get one of Lakey, Coons or Shaggy back to near their best, ths would make a big difference, two of them WOW, all three raise the flag now !

[w3design]

10TH at best

[LostDoggy]

10TH at best

Agree.

North/Richmond/Melbourne fighting for 8th with us a step or two behind.

[LostDoggy]

Agree.

North/Richmond/Melbourne fighting for 8th with us a step or two behind.

Hmm. This makes me think.

I know everyone talks up Richmond at this time every year, but we should beat Richmond, and I do see us potentially being in the same bracket as North and Melbourne, who aren't exactly flush with superstars. This makes me think that we're closer to the 8 than we think.

The difference with North is easily just Petrie, but if Lakey gets back that's nullified. Melbourne don't go that deep, and Richmond.. everyone is in love with Riewoldt and Hardwick, but one swallow doesn't make a summer. I'm yet to be convinced Hardwick can coach at this level.

I guess the same question marks hang over our coach, which is where some of my caution and confusion is coming from.

[LostDoggy]

Realistically I reckon 10th or 11th but its a funny game.

[LostDoggy]

Realistically I reckon 10th or 11th but its a funny game.

Wow -- I think this is the post that best sums up the billion or so words I've poured into thinking about this.

Beautiful economy of words that says it all -- Hemingway would have been proud.

[jeemak]

11th for me.

Teams on the way up tend to be quick and skillful, teams on the way down tend to be slow with deteriorating skills. We're the latter.

Our grunt mids are as good as anyone's as are our key defenders if fit, but the players that hold down the periphedal positions within our team aren't, and I am concerned with the reliance on players like Hargrave, Gilbee, Cooney, Minson and Lake all having good seasons for us to be competitive.

The competition is very even, and it might come down to a game or a game and a half between teams that make the eight, or don't. Due to our lack of pace and skill, I just can't see us having that little bit extra to fall in to that 7th or 8th position on the ladder.

I hope the team adapts to the game plan well, and I'll give almost a full season before I put an assertion towards us progressing or otherwise, but realistically I can't see more than a bottom middle of the road finish for us.

[DragzLS1]

11th for me.

Teams on the way up tend to be quick and skillful, teams on the way down tend to be slow with deteriorating skills. We're the latter.

Our grunt mids are as good as anyone's as are our key defenders if fit, but the players that hold down the periphedal positions within our team aren't, and I am concerned with the reliance on players like Hargrave, Gilbee, Cooney, Minson and Lake all having good seasons for us to be competitive.

The competition is very even, and it might come down to a game or a game and a half between teams that make the eight, or don't. Due to our lack of pace and skill, I just can't see us having that little bit extra to fall in to that 7th or 8th position on the ladder.

I hope the team adapts to the game plan well, and I'll give almost a full season before I put an assertion towards us progressing or otherwise, but realistically I can't see more than a bottom middle of the road finish for us.

Tutt
Dalhouse
Sherman
Grant
Cooney
Murphy
Wood

You are telling me these guys are not fast enough?

Cooney fit and firing would be lightning, Tutt and Dal some of the quickest players in the competition. The rest I listed are quick no doubt but not the fastest. Enough to make top 8 I would think

[the banker]

You really think so? Not having a go, a genuine question. We were premiership favourites this time last year, so if on paper we're looking better, then we should still be a top 4 chance. After all, some people do think that the only reason we were crap last year was Rocket's outdated gameplan and losing Coons and Lake.

We'll see, won't we? If Coons and Lake come back in and we jump back up to third or something then we'll know that it WAS Rocket's fault and injuries all along.

On paper having Lake and Cooney in the line up adds a lots of structure and quality. Performance is another thing. Hargrave back as well can cover Morris to a degree.
Expect Sherman can build on his first year with us ditto Libba. Ward is our biggest loss but we have a few option there.

Forward structure, plan and performance will probably be our season deciding factor. Still not sure what the coaching panel has in mind here. Barry was fantastic but not sure that structure suited us, a bit Fev in a way. Grant, Panos and the resting rucks seem to be the key and none of them have form, so it is a bit of a wish and a prayer. Confident in Gia, dahlhaus, Sherma, Cooney, Griff, and even Higgins to produce goals.

[LostDoggy]

Wow -- I think this is the post that best sums up the billion or so words I've poured into thinking about this.

Beautiful economy of words that says it all -- Hemingway would have been proud.

Thanks Lantern, I BS with BSer's all day...

Without 3 weeks, an Ishikawa diagram, monte carlo and risk analysis I really dont think I can do justice to all the factors that go into one teams ladder position.

[westdog54]

Realistically I reckon 10th or 11th but its a funny game.


Wow -- I think this is the post that best sums up the billion or so words I've poured into thinking about this.

Beautiful economy of words that says it all -- Hemingway would have been proud.

I agree, very succinct.

I'll say 11th, I just dont see where the improvement beyond that will come, at least not this year. I see next season as the one we're well be a truly genuine contender.

I think it was Neale Daniher that said 'Footy sucks sometimes' after a narrow loss. I'm sure the opposite applies as well though.

[bornadog]

I'll say 11th, I just dont see where the improvement beyond that will come, at least not this year. I see next season as the one we're well be a truly genuine contender.

Unless players in the age bracket 24 to 28 show some serious improvement, next year could be even worse for us. In 2013 we could see an exodus of quiet a few 30 year olds which we currently rely on.

[Sedat]

On paper having Lake and Cooney in the line up adds a lots of structure and quality. Performance is another thing. Hargrave back as well can cover Morris to a degree.
We got nothing from Cooney and Lake last year and we finished 10th - both will surely offer more in 2012 than they did last year. None of our 28-30yo players will get worse in 2012 compared to 2011 (even Gilbee, he was a non factor in 2011 anyway) - it's not as if they are already 31-33, when they could easily start hitting the wall. Morris is a big, big hole but Shaggy's return counters that partially. And none of this is to mention the expected improvement from our under 22 brigade.

For these reasons I can't see us becoming bottom 4 competition fodder in 2012 - we might well fall in a hole in 2013-14 if our youth doesn't come on and our 28-30 brigade do star hitting the wall, but there is enough talent at the 28-30yo level, and much stronger expected contributions from two of our most vital players structurally (who the opposition will have to put time and resources into every week) for us not to at least match our 2011 season output.

[Nuggety Back Pocket]

We got nothing from Cooney and Lake last year and we finished 10th - both will surely offer more in 2012 than they did last year. None of our 28-30yo players will get worse in 2012 compared to 2011 (even Gilbee, he was a non factor in 2011 anyway) - it's not as if they are already 31-33, when they could easily start hitting the wall. Morris is a big, big hole but Shaggy's return counters that partially. And none of this is to mention the expected improvement from our under 22 brigade.

For these reasons I can't see us becoming bottom 4 competition fodder in 2012 - we might well fall in a hole in 2013-14 if our youth doesn't come on and our 28-30 brigade do star hitting the wall, but there is enough talent at the 28-30yo level, and much stronger expected contributions from two of our most vital players structurally (who the opposition will have to put time and resources into every week) for us not to at least match our 2011 season output.

I like your optimism but given the quality of our list a lot would seem to hinge on any real improvement coming from Lake and Cooney. There has been very little reference made to the big losses of Ward and Hall and to a lesser extent Hudson who were all strong players to replace. I do not think we have ever adequately replaced Harbrow from the previous year. Our recruiting/drafting in recent years has been questionable.The loss of Morris for the opening 6 rounds is a huge one as he and Murphy are our two most reliable defenders. We need one or two of our younger players to really step up.
You always live in hope but being realistic it would appear that the club is in for a really tough year.

[jeemak]

Tutt
Dalhouse
Sherman
Grant
Cooney
Murphy
Wood

You are telling me these guys are not fast enough?

Cooney fit and firing would be lightning, Tutt and Dal some of the quickest players in the competition. The rest I listed are quick no doubt but not the fastest. Enough to make top 8 I would think

I guess it depends on where the pace is located. If Cooney doesn't have a decent run at fitness then you're going to be left with Gia, Higgins and Wallis rotating through the middle alongside Cross, Boyd, Liberatore and Griffen, leaving the latter (who surprisingly you left off your list) as our only quick on ball player. That worries me.

Some of the players you have mentioned genuinely affect the game with their pace around the contest and carrying the ball, but guys like Wood and Grant have a long way to go in that area, while Tutt and Dahl have a long way to go in terms of development.

I'll be at the game on Sunday, and it will be interesting to see how we fare against Carlton who have the potential to do us over for pace. I'm not expecting to match them in this area.

[Before I Die]

I like your optimism but given the quality of our list a lot would seem to hinge on any real improvement coming from Lake and Cooney. There has been very little reference made to the big losses of Ward and Hall and to a lesser extent Hudson who were all strong players to replace. I do not think we have ever adequately replaced Harbrow from the previous year. Our recruiting/drafting in recent years has been questionable.The loss of Morris for the opening 6 rounds is a huge one as he and Murphy are our two most reliable defenders. We need one or two of our younger players to really step up.
You always live in hope but being realistic it would appear that the club is in for a really tough year.

I expect our ruck division to be stronger this year than last year. I believe Libba and Dahlhaus will step up a level and that at least one of Smith, Dickson or Wallis will make some contribution in the middle. This negates the loss of Ward. I also believe it is quite possible that Tutt will show that he is not just a flash in the pan, which will give us an outside runner we lacked last year. Hall is not so easily replaced. However, we will have a multipronged attack with a good spread of marking targets and clever mid sized players and I won't be surprised if it is much more successful than a number of posters predict.

Morris is a big loss for at least 6 rounds and maybe much longer. But Shaggy is back and if Lake can also come back strongly then realistically, it would appear that the club should be in for a significantly better year.

[jeemak]

When we look at Ward as a loss, I think we need to do so not on the basis of what he has provided to our side over the last couple of years, but what he would have provided this year due to him being likely to mature further as a player. None of Wallis, Smith or Dickson will go close to negating the loss of Ward in 2012, and potentially it will be the same in 2013.

Agree with you in terms of our rucks developing, I thought playing Hudson held our list development back a touch last year (although you couldn't discount his effort), and I'm looking forward to seeing Minson take control with Cordy and Roughead fighting it out for the number two spot.

Tutt has a lot of work to do, but I see in him a very classy player in the making. This year for him is one in which he should aim for more than 15 games. He needs to work very hard to get this number up, particularly if we're able to maintain a reasonable level of health on our list. I'm really looking forward to seeing how he develops.

[Sedat]

There has been very little reference made to the big losses of Ward and Hall and to a lesser extent Hudson who were all strong players to replace. I do not think we have ever adequately replaced Harbrow from the previous year.Ward was excellent last season and I should have made mention of him. Certainly Libba's improvement will go some way to off-setting Ward's loss. Hall did very little in 2011 until season junk time. And Huddo was cooked, and likely stalled development elsewhere as alluded to by others.

[F'scary]

I'm back - I went away and thought about what was asked by the originator. So, I tried to apply a bit of Bayesian Probability Theory to our 2012 fixture. My result: 9th. I've attached my crude msExcel 97-2003 model if you want to try your own version. Basic idea for those not familiar with it is to assign probabilities for winning each game (decimal fraction of 1), add them up and multiply total by 4 (4 points for a win) to get a raw seasons points outcome. I then constructed a table showing average points per ladder position for the past 5 years and matched my modelled points outcome against that.

If anyone has a better modelling idea, lay it on us if you want or if you find my attempt's crudity laughable, that's ok too.

But maybe you might like to input your own probabilities and see what you get.

cheers

[LostDoggy]

Agree.

North/Richmond/Melbourne fighting for 8th with us a step or two behind.

Mate, no way we will ever be a step behind that lot :D.

I had us in 10th until I watched us and the Blues from last year this morning, now Ive got us in the 8 scraping in.

Having Lake back is huge and I have a good feeling about him, that and Hargy back will cover Morris. If someone can step up and cover Murphy that would release him forward to cover Hall, with Murphy forward i'm expecting Higgins to do a Richo (Last year of a contract) and have a blinder through the middle which might just cover Cooney.

Having Cooney in the same Forward line as Murphy, Dahl, Gia and Jones is Magic to my ears and very potent.

Bring on the season proper so we can stick it to the lot of em!

[MrMahatma]

12th

[Dry Rot]

IMO there's more known variables for this season than I can remember.

If everything goes right, then 9 - 12th.

If many known things go wrong (and there's a major risk they will) then bottom 4.

[GVGjr]

IMO there's more known variables for this season than I can remember.

If everything goes right, then 9 - 12th.

If many known things go wrong (and there's a major risk they will) then bottom 4.

I think that is a good analogy for the season ahead. If we perform at our best then a finals spot will be had. If we have a lot of problems with injuries then we might finish around 15th.

I think we will be competitive and just need a bit of luck in the closer games throughout the season.

[Before I Die]

C'mon folks, read the title of the thread. NO SITTING ON THE FENCE !! This thread isn't about variables or luck, it is about putting your head on the block and making a strong prediction. No each way bets, no ifs and maybes, this is single number in a sealed envelope stuff. Where will we finish! Put up or shut up and at the end of the season we will see what we will see.

[Dry Rot]

C'mon folks, read the title of the thread. NO SITTING ON THE FENCE !! This thread isn't about variables or luck, it is about putting your head on the block and making a strong prediction. No each way bets, no ifs and maybes, this is single number in a sealed envelope stuff. Where will we finish! Put up or shut up and at the end of the season we will see what we will see.

So we don't sit on the fence about whether Cooney's bad knee comes good? Morris returning as a good a a player after such a leg break? etc

[Dry Rot]

I think that is a good analogy for the season ahead. If we perform at our best then a finals spot will be had. If we have a lot of problems with injuries then we might finish around 15th.

I think we will be competitive and just need a bit of luck in the closer games throughout the season.

Early guess would be that we'll harder to score against, but find scoring harder ourselves.

Whether that gives us the edge in a close game or not I don't know.

[Bulldog Joe]

I'm back - I went away and thought about what was asked by the originator. So, I tried to apply a bit of Bayesian Probability Theory to our 2012 fixture. My result: 9th. I've attached my crude msExcel 97-2003 model if you want to try your own version. Basic idea for those not familiar with it is to assign probabilities for winning each game (decimal fraction of 1), add them up and multiply total by 4 (4 points for a win) to get a raw seasons points outcome. I then constructed a table showing average points per ladder position for the past 5 years and matched my modelled points outcome against that.

If anyone has a better modelling idea, lay it on us if you want or if you find my attempt's crudity laughable, that's ok too.

But maybe you might like to input your own probabilities and see what you get.

cheers

Like your methodology, just disagree with your results.

You have us as only a 90% chance against GWS and Port Adelaide. You also have us as an 80% chance against Brisbane at Etihad. I would consider us 100% to win all 3.

I also see us as better chances in a few other games and only against Geelong (Rd 9) and Freo (Rd 15) do I rate our chances less than you do.

Putting in my winning probabilities I come up with 14 wins.

[Before I Die]

So we don't sit on the fence about whether Cooney's bad knee comes good? Morris returning as a good a a player after such a leg break? etc

Not in this thread we don't. There are other threads where that would be an appropriate discussion such as the "Will 2012 see a resurgence like 2008" thread. What is the point of having separate threads if posters just disregard the thread title. "No sitting on the Fence" the title of the thread states. Doesn't this answer your question?

[Dry Rot]

I'm back - I went away and thought about what was asked by the originator. So, I tried to apply a bit of Bayesian Probability Theory to our 2012 fixture. My result: 9th. I've attached my crude msExcel 97-2003 model if you want to try your own version. Basic idea for those not familiar with it is to assign probabilities for winning each game (decimal fraction of 1), add them up and multiply total by 4 (4 points for a win) to get a raw seasons points outcome. I then constructed a table showing average points per ladder position for the past 5 years and matched my modelled points outcome against that.

If anyone has a better modelling idea, lay it on us if you want or if you find my attempt's crudity laughable, that's ok too.

But maybe you might like to input your own probabilities and see what you get.

cheers

Thanks for that. Good fun.

Got 7.5 wins = 13th place

[F'scary]

Like your methodology, just disagree with your results.

You have us as only a 90% chance against GWS and Port Adelaide. You also have us as an 80% chance against Brisbane at Etihad. I would consider us 100% to win all 3.

I also see us as better chances in a few other games and only against Geelong (Rd 9) and Freo (Rd 15) do I rate our chances less than you do.

Putting in my winning probabilities I come up with 14 wins.

cool - that would be 5th spot after the home and away season :cool:

[F'scary]

Thanks for that. Good fun.

Got 7.5 wins = 13th place

more pessimistic than me but fair enough - would be interested in the differences if you want to post back.

[GVGjr]

C'mon folks, read the title of the thread. NO SITTING ON THE FENCE !!

I've already stated what position I think we finish with but I do agree with others that it's potentially a wider season for us than the last few seasons. Point taken though.

[Dry Rot]

more pessimistic than me but fair enough - would be interested in the differences if you want to post back.

Some key differences and opinions:

We won't get near the Swans at either venue

IMO Saints should start firm favourites

Brisbane will improve and beat us at least at the GABBA

If Freo are injury free, we won't get near them at their home

[Dry Rot]

Not in this thread we don't. There are other threads where that would be an appropriate discussion such as the "Will 2012 see a resurgence like 2008" thread. What is the point of having separate threads if posters just disregard the thread title. "No sitting on the Fence" the title of the thread states. Doesn't this answer your question?


OK, I'll go with MS Excel and say 13th. :)

[Greystache]

Good stuff F'scary.

I had us on 10.5 wins and in 8th place. I think this season 10.5 will probably finish 8-10, which is about where I have us. I see our percentage being pretty poor so 10th seems about right. Obviously variables such as Lake, Cooney, young forwards, and a new game plan could alter the results.

[LostDoggy]

Morals to play finals

[SlimPickens]

I have us finish 10th. Reasonably confident we can get off to a strong start, thinking around 9-10 wins for the year.

[Bulldog Joe]

Some key differences and opinions:

We won't get near the Swans at either venue
IMO Saints should start firm favourites

Brisbane will improve and beat us at least at the GABBA

If Freo are injury free, we won't get near them at their home

The Swans have never beaten Western Bulldogs in Melbourne :D

[The Bulldogs Bite]

Some key differences and opinions:

We won't get near the Swans at either venue

IMO Saints should start firm favourites

Brisbane will improve and beat us at least at the GABBA

If Freo are injury free, we won't get near them at their home

Why?

Sydney rarely blow sides away and are no world beaters in Melbourne. They are a solid side, but by no means are we incapable of getting near them.

St. Kilda? They're finished. Why wouldn't we fancy ourselves? I'd be surprised if they started firm favourites. Hayes is coming back from a knee and who knows if Riewoldt and Goddard will get back to their best form. Their defence looks a little shakey too.

Not sure how you can say with any confidence that Brisbane can beat us, let alone any other side outside of GWS. They're not exactly overflowing with talent.

Freo I agree with.

[LostDoggy]

I think we will finish 7th.

No spreadsheets or formulas used. I dont think we are as bad as alot of people on here are thinking.

[Ghost Dog]

After seeing us at the NAB, def think we can go higher than my original prediction!

[LostDoggy]

I think we will finish 7th.

No spreadsheets or formulas used. I dont think we are as bad as alot of people on here are thinking.

I will stick my neck out and go for 7th place.

[Bulldog4life]

After seeing us at the NAB, def think we can go higher than my original prediction!

Too late.:D

[The Pie Man]

There are too many 'if's for me to predict a high finish - though some of these finishing in the positve are plausible.

* Lake and Cooney having injury free/inlfuential years
* Morris coming back first half of the year and playing well
* Hargrave playing a full year
* Minson stepping up
* Roughead/Cordy holding down R.2 spot and hitting the scoreboard
* Grant fulfilling potential
* Jones taking the next step
* Dahlhaus continuing his improvement
*Gia/Higgins providing goals when the young bigs are down

I could go on.

If more than half of the above are positive, we could finish in the 7-11 range. I'm going to go the mid point of that range and say Richmond. Forward line is a concern, though I wouldn't be surprised if we claim a big scalp or two along the way.

The pre-season committment to contested footy has been promising - we'll at the very least be competitive in most games, and when it clicks (like Gilbee kicking 6 vs Tigs 2011) we can win games we might not think we should.

First 2 weeks are very important too - momentum early could be crucial - the Adelaide game round 1 08 is a great example. Really looking forward to the Eagles game.

[LostDoggy]

There are too many 'if's for me to predict a high finish - though some of these finishing in the positve are plausible.

* Lake and Cooney having injury free/inlfuential years
* Morris coming back first half of the year and playing well
* Hargrave playing a full year
* Minson stepping up
* Roughead/Cordy holding down R.2 spot and hitting the scoreboard
* Grant fulfilling potential
* Jones taking the next step
* Dahlhaus continuing his improvement
*Gia/Higgins providing goals when the young bigs are down

I could go on.

If more than half of the above are positive, we could finish in the 7-11 range. I'm going to go the mid point of that range and say Richmond. Forward line is a concern, though I wouldn't be surprised if we claim a big scalp or two along the way.

The pre-season committment to contested footy has been promising - we'll at the very least be competitive in most games, and when it clicks (like Gilbee kicking 6 vs Tigs 2011) we can win games we might not think we should.

First 2 weeks are very important too - momentum early could be crucial - the Adelaide game round 1 08 is a great example. Really looking forward to the Eagles game.

This post is the definition of sitting on the fence! :)

[whythelongface]

Tough question. I reckon 4th.

[The Pie Man]

This post is the definition of sitting on the fence! :)

Hmmm yep guilty :)

I tip 9th - just wouldn't be surprised to see us higher or lower based on where we're at after 5 rounds.....shivers I'm doing it again aren't I? :o

[AndrewP6]

Hmmm yep guilty :)

I tip 9th - just wouldn't be surprised to see us higher or lower based on where we're at after 5 rounds.....shivers I'm doing it again aren't I? :o

:D You're firmly entrenched on the aforementioned fence!

[The Coon Dog]

Interesting to look back at the optimism/pessimism from posters at the start of the year.

[chef]

15th for me, I can see GC finishing above us.

Half right:(.

[Sedat]

With no LTI's, a brutal pre-season that has the list in very good shape, and a favourable early draw, I can see us doing exactly what Essendon did last year - get off to a flyer and then struggle to find the line later in the season. Pencil in 8th for me.
Well I got the 'struggle to find the line later in the season' bit right - actually couldn't have been more right on that score :(

[G-Mo77]

I picked 14th in the Ladder Predictor. (http://www.woof.net.au/forum/showthread.php?p=254443#post254443) I haven't seen anything from this squad that would change my mind from the start of the year so I'll stick with that.

I don't think our injured guns will be of much service this season. Everyone talks about Lake and Cooney but I think Morris is the biggest loss and I can't see him doing what he has done all his career after that horrible injury. We still rely far to much on the older section of our list and the younger section isn't anywhere near ready to carry. The gap seems very wide between the two and this season will bridge it closer but won't help our chances of winning more games in 2012. We'll win about 6 - 8 and % will keep us down if we are level on points with another team.


1 position off on the ladder guess and roughly 1 win off what we've achieved in the W/L column. I don't think it will be much better in 2013.

[LostDoggy]

This post is the definition of sitting on the fence! :)

dreaming........:D

[Hotdog60]

I'm the eternal optimist, 5th for me for no particular reason. In my mind we can beat all the other teams any day of the week. It just depends on who turns up to play.:D

I was close if there was 100 teams playing.:D

[LostDoggy]

There are too many 'if's for me to predict a high finish - though some of these finishing in the positve are plausible.
* Minson stepping up


You got that right. Stepping up / Stepping down on Kieran Jack's ankle ;)

[The Pie Man]

There are too many 'if's for me to predict a high finish - though some of these finishing in the positve are plausible.

* Lake and Cooney having injury free/inlfuential years
* Morris coming back first half of the year and playing well
* Hargrave playing a full year
* Minson stepping up
* Roughead/Cordy holding down R.2 spot and hitting the scoreboard
* Grant fulfilling potential
* Jones taking the next step
* Dahlhaus continuing his improvement
*Gia/Higgins providing goals when the young bigs are down

If more than half of the above are positive, we could finish in the 7-11 range. I'm going to go the mid point of that range and say Richmond. Forward line is a concern, though I wouldn't be surprised if we claim a big scalp or two along the .

Can I count North as a 'scalp?'

Well less than half of my 'if' column turned positive, and that's where we are.

Nice call on Minson & Mr Jack alexxx

[Maddog37]

Fifth for me. Behind cats hawks pies and a couple of interstaters or Carlton.

Or second last. Depends on injured players and their collective input. If finals are out of the picture early I expect a full on cull of older players and the kids to be thrown to the wolves.



We have thrown the kids to the wolves so I am claiming a small victory on this one.:D

[Dry Rot]

We won't get near the Swans at either venue

IMO Saints should start firm favourites



Got those 2 right.