The First 8 Rounds Can Set up the Season

[Bulldog Joe]

Just an idea that came from the Where will we finish thread.

The first 8 rounds can build confidence and establish some real belief.

I believe the fixture is kind and really creates a chance to get some momentum for the season

Round 1
West Coast at Etihad.
We almost got the points at Etihad in the horrible year that was 2011 and I see a real chance for a win here. West Coast are a different proposition away from Perth.
I know this will be tough but we should approach this with real enthusiasm as the 1st game under Macca.

Round 2
Adelaide in Adelaide
We have won our last 4 against Adelaide including 2 in Adelaide. They have lost 2 KPD to expansion clubs and I believe we have their measure.

Round 3
St Kilda at Etihad
I see this as eminently winnable. St Kilda may have the most to change with the new coach and have given few chances to their youth over the Lyon reign. Scott Watters may pay the penalty for Lyon's recycling policy. I see St Kilda as more likely to fall away than any of the 2011 finalists.

Round 4
Melbourne at the G
While I expect Melbourne to improve with better coaching and fitness they remain dependent on a young core of players. I think our experienced players should get us over Melbourne.

Round 5
Greater Western Sydney at Manuka
Does anyone seriously think we can't win this one.

Round 6
Collingwood at the G
While I am prepared to concede this game with a 6 day break compared to Collingwood with a 9 day break, we can still give this a shake if we are up and about. Collingwood may also be suffering big-gamitis after meeting Hawthorn and Carlton prior to their ANZAC blockbuster

Round 7
North Melbourne at Etihad
There are plenty talking up North and they did get over us last year, but I see this as a 50/50 contest and a real winning chance.

Round 8
Gold Coast in Darwin
While I expect Gold Coast to be an improved team I also expect us to beat them. We have done pretty well in Darwin and we have players well experienced in those onditions.

So I see wins over
Adelaide, St Kilda, Melbourne , GWS and Gold Coast. One win then from the other 3 (West Coast, North, Collingwood) would give us a 6 from 8 start.

This would set up the season.

It would also get rid of a lot of supporter pessimism.

I BELIEVE.

[westdog54]

Just an idea that came from the Where will we finish thread.

The first 8 rounds can build confidence and establish some real belief.

I believe the fixture is kind and really creates a chance to get some momentum for the season

Round 1
West Coast at Etihad.
We almost got the points at Etihad in the horrible year that was 2011 and I see a real chance for a win here. West Coast are a different proposition away from Perth.
I know this will be tough but we should approach this with real enthusiasm as the 1st game under Macca.

Round 2
Adelaide in Adelaide
We have won our last 4 against Adelaide including 2 in Adelaide. They have lost 2 KPD to expansion clubs and I believe we have their measure.

Round 3
St Kilda at Etihad
I see this as eminently winnable. St Kilda may have the most to change with the new coach and have given few chances to their youth over the Lyon reign. Scott Watters may pay the penalty for Lyon's recycling policy. I see St Kilda as more likely to fall away than any of the 2011 finalists.

Round 4
Melbourne at the G
While I expect Melbourne to improve with better coaching and fitness they remain dependent on a young core of players. I think our experienced players should get us over Melbourne.

Round 5
Greater Western Sydney at Manuka
Does anyone seriously think we can't win this one.

Round 6
Collingwood at the G
While I am prepared to concede this game with a 6 day break compared to Collingwood with a 9 day break, we can still give this a shake if we are up and about. Collingwood may also be suffering big-gamitis after meeting Hawthorn and Carlton prior to their ANZAC blockbuster

Round 7
North Melbourne at Etihad
There are plenty talking up North and they did get over us last year, but I see this as a 50/50 contest and a real winning chance.

Round 8
Gold Coast in Darwin
While I expect Gold Coast to be an improved team I also expect us to beat them. We have done pretty well in Darwin and we have players well experienced in those onditions.

So I see wins over
Adelaide, St Kilda, Melbourne , GWS and Gold Coast. One win then from the other 3 (West Coast, North, Collingwood) would give us a 6 from 8 start.

This would set up the season.

It would also get rid of a lot of supporter pessimism.

I BELIEVE.

Now that I look at it, I'll take a 5-3 start with open arms.

Gold Coast and GWS are inexcusable if we lose, Melbourne is very winnable, Adelaide and StKilda are a bit of an unknown. Of the other 3, I see North as our biggest chance for a win.

No LeCras will hurt West Coast big time, and if Lake is back to full fitness by Round 1 I can't see Kennedy kicking 10 for them again, though I can see Cox and Naitinui running riot against our ruckman. Ditto for Goldstein and McIntosh.

Out of those 8 games, all are winnable. Even Collingwood, and I don't say that from a 'you've gotta be in it to win it' stance. 4 of our opponents will also have first year coaches, so when you factor in all those variables I think its more than just hope speaking when I think we should be fancying our chances.

[chef]

I think we will be 3 & 5 with our wins being over Saints(not very confident of this one but), GWS and GC.

Love to share your optimism BJ, but to me we are still on the downhill slope and a couple of seasons being we will start heading back up.

[Bulldog Joe]

I think we will be 3 & 5 with our wins being over Saints(not very confident of this one but), GWS and GC.

Love to share your optimism BJ, but to me we are still on the downhill slope and a couple of seasons being we will start heading back up.


So you don't think we can beat Adelaide or Melbourne.

What have they got that we can't match or better?

[chef]

So you don't think we can beat Adelaide or Melbourne.

What have they got that we can't match or better?

Better lists and home ground advantage. Can't really comment on the coaching set ups yet.

[Bulldog Joe]

Better lists and home ground advantage. Can't really comment on the coaching set ups yet.

I feel they lack the core of experience that we possess.

I just don't see anywhere that Adelaide have an advantage over us. We have beaten them in Adelaide the last 2 and they have lost 2 Key defenders to expansion clubs.

I feel we are better around the ball ...including the ruck.

We are concerned about our forwards but at Adelaide I would be concerned about their backs.

Melbourne I feel have a long way to go. They dumped so much of their experience and they have more to learn about contested footy than anyone.

[Ghost Dog]

Laugh if you will, but I think a lot of people will underestimate GWS this season. They will fade later in the season, but will come out running hard and may take a few opponents by surprise. May see them getting to within a winning margin or even pipping a couple of teams at the post.

I truly hope we are not disrespectful to GWS or GC this season and put them to the sword with 4 quarters of footy.

[LostDoggy]

Laugh if you will, but I think a lot of people will underestimate GWS this season. They will fade later in the season, but will come out running hard and may take a few opponents by surprise. May see them getting to within a winning margin or even pipping a couple of teams at the post.

I truly hope we are not disrespectful to GWS or GC this season and put them to the sword with 4 quarters of footy.

I wholeheartedly agree. I think GWS will do FAR better than Gold Coast did.

[Ozza]

I wholeheartedly agree. I think GWS will do FAR better than Gold Coast did.

I can't share your view there. Gold Coast's young kids seemed to have bigger wraps on them - and GC also had Gary Ablett (best player in the league), Rischitelli (coming of a Club B&F), experience in Bock down back (at this point still better than Phil Davis) and Harbrow.

My guess is that GWS don't match or exceed the 3 wins Gold Coast had last year.

[Cyberdoggie]

The first 3 games are obviously the key.

The first one the most important.

WCE will be very difficult round 1. Adelaide in Adelaide even more so.
The Crows may not be premiership contenders this year but early in the season with a full list at home and with a high moral, this one will be tough, especially if we don't win the first one.

If we lose the first two i can't see us beating the saints, Lenny Hayes will add much to their midfield and he, Dal Santo and Montagna can rip us apart easily.

I'm actually fairly positive about our season but if we don't win 1 of the first two games then things could get ugly.

[Sedat]

I think we'll get off to a flyer as well, but I also think we'll run out of steam as the season progresses. We are obviously going to play a far more stoppage-heavy and defensive-oriented game style than our playing group has previously been accustomed to - this game style is undeniably more labour-intensive, so I think our younger bridage will start to feel the pinch from around late June onwards.

[G-Mo77]

2 wins I will pencil in. We may sneak away with another against Adelaide, Melbourne or North. 3 wins, 4 at a stretch.

[Mantis]

Let's hope it's atleast 4-4 because rd 9 & 10 are likely losses.

[LostDoggy]

No confidence we can beat Collingwood (Have lost last 4) or St Kilda (Lost the last 6).

If we came out 4-4 I would be pleasantly happy. But I too would be set on 3-5.

[Bulldog Joe]

Let's hope it's atleast 4-4 because rd 9 & 10 are likely losses.

Round 9 does look unwinnable with a 6 day turnaround from Darwin to play Geelong.

Would be a good time for some better players to have general soreness and be put on ice for round 10.

I would not be conceding Round 10 in Sydney to the Swans too quickly.

[Mantis]

Round 9 does look unwinnable with a 6 day turnaround from Darwin to play Geelong.

Would be a good time for some better players to have general soreness and be put on ice for round 10.

It will be to see how we manage our players through this period as we also have a bye in rd 11 so I'm not sure who would only want to play one game in a month... Assuming we rest players for the Geelong game.


I would not be conceding Round 10 in Sydney to the Swans too quickly.

Says the guy who thinks we will finish above Collingwood.

[bornadog]

No confidence we can beat Collingwood (Have lost last 4) or St Kilda (Lost the last 6).

If we came out 4-4 I would be pleasantly happy. But I too would be set on 3-5.

I agree with you Alex. The key to this year is going to be can we kick winning scores? Under Rocket, the games we won were all high scoring and we tended to lose the the low scoring matches. Maybe under Bmac this will change

[westdog54]

I wholeheartedly agree. I think GWS will do FAR better than Gold Coast did.

I'm not sure I agree, I think that Sheedy has recruited with a view to being highly competitive in 3 years time, by taking players like Davis, Ward and Scully who haven't peaked, as well as Power, Brogan, Cornes and McDonald who won't be there but can help the rest to develop.

I believe they'll win 2-3 games. It remains to be seen who the opponents are.

[Mantis]

I'm not sure I agree, I think that Sheedy has recruited with a view to being highly competitive in 3 years time, by taking players like Davis, Ward and Scully who haven't peaked, as well as Power, Brogan, Cornes and McDonald who won't be there but can help the rest to develop.

I believe they'll win 2-3 games. It remains to be seen who the opponents are.

You actually think that Sheedy had anything to do with it?

He is just the nominated figurehead who I doubt very much has much pull at all. Choco & Gubby are the ones pulling the strings.

[westdog54]

You actually think that Sheedy had anything to do with it?

He is just the nominated figurehead who I doubt very much has much pull at all. Choco & Gubby are the ones pulling the strings.

Irrespective of who is doing it the direction is clear. Write the next 2 years off and have a rip-roaring strong list in 3-5 years time.

[Dry Rot]

Round 1
West Coast at Etihad.

LOSS, bad loss

Round 2
Adelaide in Adelaide
50/50> Good new coach, home adv, toss the coin

Round 3
St Kilda at Etihad
LOSS, better side

Round 4
Melbourne at the G
50/50 Good new coach, interesting list, toss the coin

Round 5
Greater Western Sydney at Manuka
WIN

Round 6
Collingwood at the G
LOSS, bad loss

Round 7
North Melbourne at Etihad
LOSS, they are on the elevator up, we're taking the lift down

Round 8
Gold Coast in Darwin

50/50. If they get a lot of improvement and fitness, they'll win.



1- 4 wins for me. Probably two.

[Remi Moses]

I'd be happy with 4 and 4
More likely 3 and 5

[Hotdog60]

Naysayers, 8 from 8 and who knows from there.:D

[soupman]

With regard to GWS I think they'll really struggle to win games. They simply don't have any matchwinners, will have too many kids, are carrying a bloke like Folau up forward who I think will be terrible and their better players aren't of high enough quality to compensate for their lesser players.

Gold Coast however are going to be a lot better than people think and I think they are in the mix for 8-10. The kids that have already shown a bit are only going to get better and are pretty good (Swallow, Smith, Dixon, Matera, Bennell, etc.) and with a side that includes some very good players (Ablett and Rischitelli) I think they'll be a lot better than people expect.

[Sockeye Salmon]

With regard to GWS I think they'll really struggle to win games. They simply don't have any matchwinners, will have too many kids, are carrying a bloke like Folau up forward who I think will be terrible and their better players aren't of high enough quality to compensate for their lesser players.

Gold Coast however are going to be a lot better than people think and I think they are in the mix for 8-10. The kids that have already shown a bit are only going to get better and are pretty good (Swallow, Smith, Dixon, Matera, Bennell, etc.) and with a side that includes some very good players (Ablett and Rischitelli) I think they'll be a lot better than people expect.

Dixon is a potato. Do you mean Lynch?

[bornadog]

1- 4 wins for me. Probably two.

Thats optimistic for you, I would have thought you would have us at 0-8:D

[AndrewP6]

BUMP. This thread could make for some interesting reading at this point in the season.

[AndrewP6]

Let's hope it's atleast 4-4 because rd 9 & 10 are likely losses.

Good call!

[AndrewP6]

I'd be happy with 4 and 4
More likely 3 and 5

You'd have been happy last week then!

[Remi Moses]

You'd have been happy last week then!

Happy with 4 and 4.
Think most are happy with the way the club is heading.
Still reckon we'll be 12 13th region

[AndrewP6]

Happy with 4 and 4.
Think most are happy with the way the club is heading.
Still reckon we'll be 12 13th region

Same.

[Greystache]

Good bump Andrew,

4-5 isn't great, but given our starting point, the clear improvement on our weaknesses, the rounding out of the output of or senior players, and the obvious development of our young players, I think it's been a good year so far. I actually think we'll get better as the season goes and as McCartney has more time to teach the group, and while we may not make the 8, we will be in a good position to make a push next year. Many people questioned the club's view that this is a refresh rather than a rebuild, but I'm starting to see the evidence they might be right. Assuming we keep trending in the same direction, next year could be pretty exciting, and and least this year our supporters can go to matches knowing they'll see an honest effort.

[westdog54]

I still don't we will make the 8 this year but given that we're almost halfway through the season and our improvement seems fairly constant I think that 10 wins is a very realistic target, and would surpass my expectations for the year (From what I remember I predicted we'd win 8 games).

Longer term I don't think we're as far off finals action as I thought we were. BMac is looking like a good fit for our club.

[LostDoggy]

The way the season is unfolding , with teams expected to be strong and dominant but faltering and our draw its going be really interesting to see where we finish

From now till Round 20 is a solid part of the season , away to Sydney , the bye , then 3 straight games at Etihad where we could get points against Port and Brisbane and Essendon might be a fight we just lose, then away to Freo not sure depends on how we went against the Bombers , then a 7 day break before 4 straight games at Etihad , Hawthorn Carlton St Kilda North , tough block of 4 but we could get the points against St Kilda and North and Hawks and Blues won,t be easy for them or us , and Round 20 is Richmond at the MCG if they keep improving from now knocking off the Hawks till August they could be in the 8 really need to take the points to cap off the block of games

So away , bye , 3 straight Etihad , away with 7 day break , 4 straight Etihad , MCG

June 3rd till August 12th , for me thats the most important period to see if we can get to 8th and hold onto it , at the rate we are making improvements as the game plan rolls on like a King Tiger Tank we are a great chance to do it

.

[Bulldog Joe]

I know I am accused of being too optomistic, but just had a look at the fixture and see us as capable of getting to 12 or 13 wins.

That would have us 8th or 9th.

We are definitely improving and just need to finish off the grunt work.

I know plenty won't agree but I now believe we will finish ahead of Geelong. Obviously we need to maintain the improvement we have been seeing.

[chef]

You weren't far off the mark BJ as we had reasonable chances to get a result in 3 of our loses.

[bornadog]

You weren't far off the mark BJ as we had reasonable chances to get a result in 3 of our loses.

We hit the front against Adeliade but couldn't sustain it and lost by 3 goals, We were up against Collingwood and still in it with 15 minutes left in the last and lost by 21 points and with ten minutes to go we were 3 points down against Geelong. BJ wasn't that far off.

As for the rest of the season, I predict:



Sydney SCG loss
Port Adelaide Etihad Stadium Win
Brisbane Etihad Stadium Win
Essendon Etihad Stadium Loss
Fremantle Patersons Stadium Loss
Hawthorn Etihad Stadium Possible
Carlton Etihad Stadium Possible
St Kilda Etihad Stadium Loss
North Melbourne Etihad Stadium Win
Richmond MCG Loss
Sydney Etihad Stadium Possible
Geelong Simonds Stadium Loss
Brisbane Gabba Win

4 more wins, 3 possibles and 6 losses

[w3design]

Pre season I predicted a finish of 9th. I am happy we are still on target for that kind of finish. But this is dependent on the kids not running out of legs late in the year, and no more key injuries. I would feel that would be a creditable outcome, and a good spring board for the next couple of seasons.
From there a hell of a lot depends on draft, trading and retirements. And of course the continued development of the newer boys.

[Eastdog]

This year 2012 we are a middle tier team (Not the best, but not the worst either) but there is a lot to like about us going forward. The kids coming through look exciting (Dahlhaus, Libba, Wallis) and the competitiveness of our side is very good. The weakness for us is our forward line which needs to improve but overall with the current list we have we are going ok.

[azabob]

This year 2012 we are a middle tier team (Not the best, but not the worst either) but there is a lot to like about us going forward. The kids coming through look exciting (Dahlhaus, Libba, Wallis) and the competitiveness of our side is very good. The weakness for us is our forward line which needs to improve but overall with the current list we have we are going ok.

Do you think players such as Jones, Cordy, Roughead have improved enough?

[Eastdog]

Do you think players such as Jones, Cordy, Roughead have improved enough?

Jones, Cordy and Roughead are still young and early in there careers. Jones and Roughead both have one thing in common and that is bad kicking. Minson is well ahead of Cordy in terms of the number 1 ruck position. Cordy still needs more games.

[azabob]

Jones, Cordy and Roughead are still young and early in there careers. Jones and Roughead both have one thing in common and that is bad kicking. Minson is well ahead of Cordy in terms of the number 1 ruck position. Cordy still needs more games.

I agree, I thought they should have been listed in with your younger players such as Liberatore, Wallis and Dahl.

[Eastdog]

I agree, I thought they should have been listed in with your younger players such as Liberatore, Wallis and Dahl.

What do you think of Vez. I think he hasn't been too bad but its obvious that parts of his game need improving.

[azabob]

What do you think of Vez. I think he hasn't been too bad but its obvious that parts of his game need improving.

I like Vez a lot, if he can continue to improve his fitness he will be a valuable player for us. He likes to run and carry and take the game on, and he is also a good field kick.

[Twodogs]

Bearing in mind I am an eternal optimist this is my take;


Sydney SCG Loss
Port Adelaide Etihad Stadium Win
Brisbane Etihad Stadium Win
Essendon Etihad Stadium Loss
Fremantle Patersons Stadium Possible
Hawthorn Etihad Stadium Win
Carlton Etihad Stadium Loss
St Kilda Etihad Stadium Possible
North Melbourne Etihad Stadium Win
Richmond MCG Win
Sydney Etihad Stadium Possible
Geelong Simonds Stadium Loss
Brisbane Gabba Win


6 wins-Richmond and Hawthorn dont impress me. 3 possibles-Still dont know what to make of Freo and Sydney's form in Melbourne is appalling. 4 losses-although us beating one of Carlton or Essendon wouldnt suprise me. So we could have six more wins and seven more losses or if everything goes right we could have ten more wins and three losses.