Stats confidential: Western Bulldogs desperately need a gun forward

[Hotdog60]

http://resources3.news.com.au/images/2012/05/06/1226348/088295-liam-jones.jpg


DEFENCE wins premierships, the wise heads of football always say.


But it is the polish and poise of forwards that wins you games week in, week out.

Without a mix of both, you have little hope of challenging - and that is the painful reality confronting Western Bulldogs coach Brendan McCartney.

McCartney and his Dogs are doing so much right, holding teams to manageable scores and winning enough hard ball through the midfield to create forward thrusts, but the good news stops at the 50m paint.

The Bulldogs have this season converted only 20.7 per cent of forward-50 entries to goals, ranked last in the competition.

The conversion rate is the lowest recorded by Champion Data since it started keeping the statistic in 1999.

The Dogs were No.1 in the stat as recently as 2009, converting 29.3 per cent of all entries to goals. In 2010 and last year, they were ranked fourth.

But McCartney, who put a Dogs team on the park against Collingwood bristling with hunger and intent on Friday night, is working with a forward line learning on the job.

Footy moves so quickly, it is easy to forget the comings and goings at clubs, but loss of natural goalkickers at Whitten Oval has been extraordinary.
“

McCartney and his Dogs are doing so much right, holding teams to manageable scores and winning enough hard ball through the midfield to create forward thrusts, but the good news stops at the 50m paint.
”
In 2009, the Dogs' top 10 goalkickers were, in order: Jason Akermanis, Mitch Hahn, Brad Johnson, Josh Hill, Shaun Higgins, Lindsay Gilbee, Daniel Giansiracusa, Scott Welsh, Nathan Eagleton and Callan Ward.

Only two - Higgins and Giansiracusa - played against the Pies.

Barry Hall arrived the following year, and he is gone too.

Liam Jones is a powerful athlete with the invaluable asset of making contested marking look easy but, without the support of Hall, he is struggling to bring much else to the table.

He will be a player, but is probably still two years from being able to have an impact to the extent of kicking five goals in a game.

Ayce Cordy and Jordan Roughead have also been trialled as targets. Again, they need time.

Jarrad Grant was recruited as a potential key target, but is more of a flanker and needs to start delivering on his ample talents consistently.

The Dogs desperately need a mature-age "bridging" player to help Jones and Co. out over the next two to three years.

Ed Barlow was hardly a superstar power forward, but he had a big tank and could mark overhead. He seemed stiff to be given the chop in the off-season.

Club legend Doug Hawkins wanted Brendan Fevola to be that bridging player, but he was deemed too risky.

The Dogs will have two first-round picks in this year's super draft, but no doubt their focus will be on claiming a fringe forward from another club who could make a difference.

MORE STATS CONFIDENTIAL

If you don't mind

IT was a poor bouncing display in Friday night's Collingwood-Bulldogs game at Etihad.

A series of false starts, and second bounces, re-ignited debate about the worth of the centre bounce - an incredibly difficult skill.

Do we just bounce it to start quarters? Maybe.

The downside is, it would give leaping machine Nic Naitanui a gold pass to dominate if the ball is thrown up predictably each time.

Pause/rewind

SYDNEY had the ball inside its forward half for 60 per cent of the game against Adelaide, winning the inside 50 count 67-45. It was the highest inside 50 count by a losing team since Geelong had 67 in Round 1, 2003, and lost to the Bulldogs.

THIS season, 75 per cent of teams winning the contested possession count in a game have collected the four points.

Geelong continues to defy logic. It has won four of six despite not winning the contested battle once.
LINK (http://www.heraldsun.com.au/afl/stats-confidential-western-bulldogs-desperately-need-a-gun-forward/story-fn7si05c-1226348090669)

[G-Mo77]

Hmm. OK what does Steveo use as a user name in here. :)

[Rocco Jones]

Hmm. OK what does Steveo use as a user name in here. :)

Haha.

With all due respect, it doesn't take a genius to realised we desperately need a gun forward. Just watch us for a couple of minutes and you will get that.

[Sedat]

Ed Barlow was hardly a superstar power forward, but he had a big tank and could mark overhead. He seemed stiff to be given the chop in the off-season.No arguments from me, although Stevo is generous with his assessment that Cheesy could mark overhead :D

[Hotdog60]

every picture tells a story, Jones with 3 defends jumping with him and Higgins isn't front and centre.:D

[Rocco Jones]

No arguments from me, although Stevo is generous with his assessment that Cheesy could mark overhead :D

Haha yep. I think guys with wonderful tanks are underrated by the general footy public as they think they are just getting easy touches. Barlow's ability to offer a consistent outlet around HF was well worth his rookie spot IMO.

We went after Bate pretty strongly during the trade period so obviously we felt a need for that type, really unsure as to why we dumped Ed after we failed in our bid for the Master.

[Rocco Jones]

every picture tells a story, Jones with 3 defends jumping with him and Higgins isn't front and centre.:D

Interesting call.

I mentoned in the Liam thread that I think Gia and Higgins make Jones' role harder. They aren't typical modern smalls, offering pressure and the like. They are almost like little KP forwards who do little offer than score a goal or two a game. Don't get me wrong, I think they are worth their spot but they don't really help the guys around them.

[Ghost Dog]

Brian, forward march.

[LostDoggy]

General Mac and the coaching staff are fully and completely aware that our forward line is inexperienced and undermanned , right from the start when he began to mould the game plan going into season 2012 General Mac knew that the oversize midfield part of the game plan would have to score 2/3rds of the goals and the final 1/3 from defenders moving forward , the rotating ruckman and the two forwards
By having this mindset right from the pre-season the players knew what was expected from them and that it would take time to build momentum before the game plan could be fluid and dynamic over four quarters
The one balancing point is that the oversize midfield must push forward to the 50m arc and make a decision to either hit a target or kick the goal , given that the game plan only uses two forwards the decision first and foremost should be to kick the goal
Now in order for the oversize midfield to push forward to be in a position to make a decision to score or hit a target everything goes back to the core of the game plan , win the ball at any cost , protect the ball carrier , protect the zones , use numbers behind the ball to spread and stretch the opposition zones , attack with numbers any gaps in the opposition zones
By understanding General Mac's and the coaching staffs objectives we clearly see that by building this game plan for 2012 they have taken into account the inexperienced and undermanned forward line as they try to make the team a cohesive and flexible unit , and that it requires a full rebuild of the team work ethic
Our current list may be short of one or two experienced tall forwards but General Mac and the coaching staff know development takes time , knowledge takes time , and rebuilding takes time , and that the time would be well spent if by the end of season 2012 our development of our young forwards was a bonus on top of the teams development


.

[Ghost Dog]

Interesting call.

I mentoned in the Liam thread that I think Gia and Higgins make Jones' role harder. They aren't typical modern smalls, offering pressure and the like. They are almost like little KP forwards who do little offer than score a goal or two a game. Don't get me wrong, I think they are worth their spot but they don't really help the guys around them.

Great observation

[Remi Moses]

Interesting call.

I mentoned in the Liam thread that I think Gia and Higgins make Jones' role harder. They aren't typical modern smalls, offering pressure and the like. They are almost like little KP forwards who do little offer than score a goal or two a game. Don't get me wrong, I think they are worth their spot but they don't really help the guys around them.

That is so true it isn't funny.

[Remi Moses]

The interesting thing is going to be...
Do we trade? Develop our own? Thoughts?

[chef]

Haha yep. I think guys with wonderful tanks are underrated by the general footy public as they think they are just getting easy touches. Barlow's ability to offer a consistent outlet around HF was well worth his rookie spot IMO.

We went after Bate pretty strongly during the trade period so obviously we felt a need for that type, really unsure as to why we dumped Ed after we failed in our bid for the Master.

He'll be a free agent(restricted) this trade period coming, so there's a fair chance he'll be on our list next year IMO as he was very keen to come here.

[G-Mo77]

He'll be a free agent(restricted) this trade period coming, so there's a fair chance he'll be on our list next year IMO as he was very keen to come here.

Is this coming from personal knowledge or speculation?

[Ghost Dog]

Time to start looking at our own. Just keep trying Minson, Roughy, Campbell, Cordy in there until something clicks.

[Maddog37]

General Mac and the coaching staff are fully and completely aware that our forward line is inexperienced and undermanned , right from the start when he began to mould the game plan going into season 2012 General Mac knew that the oversize midfield part of the game plan would have to score 2/3rds of the goals and the final 1/3 from defenders moving forward , the rotating ruckman and the two forwards
By having this mindset right from the pre-season the players knew what was expected from them and that it would take time to build momentum before the game plan could be fluid and dynamic over four quarters
The one balancing point is that the oversize midfield must push forward to the 50m arc and make a decision to either hit a target or kick the goal , given that the game plan only uses two forwards the decision first and foremost should be to kick the goal
Now in order for the oversize midfield to push forward to be in a position to make a decision to score or hit a target everything goes back to the core of the game plan , win the ball at any cost , protect the ball carrier , protect the zones , use numbers behind the ball to spread and stretch the opposition zones , attack with numbers any gaps in the opposition zones
By understanding General Mac's and the coaching staffs objectives we clearly see that by building this game plan for 2012 they have taken into account the inexperienced and undermanned forward line as they try to make the team a cohesive and flexible unit , and that it requires a full rebuild of the team work ethic
Our current list may be short of one or two experienced tall forwards but General Mac and the coaching staff know development takes time , knowledge takes time , and rebuilding takes time , and that the time would be well spent if by the end of season 2012 our development of our young forwards was a bonus on top of the teams development


.

Interesting reading. Hw do you know this Westdog?

[chef]

Is this coming from personal knowledge or speculation?

Speculation

[G-Mo77]

Speculation

Yeah I can't remember the articles exactly and can't be bothered looking. I know we chased him and he expressed interest to come here, Melbourne wanted a 2nd Rounder from memory as well.

[BulldogBelle]

General Mac and the coaching staff are fully and completely aware that our forward line is inexperienced and undermanned , right from the start when he began to mould the game plan going into season 2012 General Mac knew that the oversize midfield part of the game plan would have to score 2/3rds of the goals and the final 1/3 from defenders moving forward , the rotating ruckman and the two forwards
By having this mindset right from the pre-season the players knew what was expected from them and that it would take time to build momentum before the game plan could be fluid and dynamic over four quarters
The one balancing point is that the oversize midfield must push forward to the 50m arc and make a decision to either hit a target or kick the goal , given that the game plan only uses two forwards the decision first and foremost should be to kick the goal
Now in order for the oversize midfield to push forward to be in a position to make a decision to score or hit a target everything goes back to the core of the game plan , win the ball at any cost , protect the ball carrier , protect the zones , use numbers behind the ball to spread and stretch the opposition zones , attack with numbers any gaps in the opposition zones
By understanding General Mac's and the coaching staffs objectives we clearly see that by building this game plan for 2012 they have taken into account the inexperienced and undermanned forward line as they try to make the team a cohesive and flexible unit , and that it requires a full rebuild of the team work ethic
Our current list may be short of one or two experienced tall forwards but General Mac and the coaching staff know development takes time , knowledge takes time , and rebuilding takes time , and that the time would be well spent if by the end of season 2012 our development of our young forwards was a bonus on top of the teams development


.



Western Bulldogs: Giansiracusa 3, Griffen 2, Higgins 2, Lake, Wood, Boyd, Hargrave.



So apart from Gia, how many of our 'full time' forwards scored goals against Collingwood?

(I cant remember if Higgins played in the forward line for most of the game)

The instructions you detailed above are evident as we scored quite a goals from outside of the 50m arc (Lake, Wood etc) - defenders and mids taking pot shots from a distance given our forward line isnt mature or aren't capable creating a suitable option or taking many marks

[BulldogBelle]

The interesting thing is going to be...
Do we trade? Develop our own? Thoughts?



Given McCartney's influence and his experience at Geelong (and their hesitation to bring players in via trade), I doubt we will be big players at the trade table and simply choose to develop our own

If we do I doubt we will be involved in any big trades

Between Cordy, Hill, Grant, Roughead, Jones, Panos, Dickson etc we have quiet a few forward prospects to focus on developing

[bornadog]

Given McCartney's influence and his experience at Geelong (and their hesitation to bring players in via trade), I doubt we will be big players at the trade table and simply choose to develop our own

If we do I doubt we will be involved in any big trades

Between Cordy, Hill, Grant, Roughead, Jones, Panos, Dickson etc we have quiet a few forward prospects to focus on developing

I hope we stick to picking up young players in the draft and developing our own.

[Happy Days]

I hope we stick to picking up young players in the draft and developing our own.

Agreed; a wise man once said "trading is the work of the devil".

Unless of course we can fall into an outrageous deal like the Swans got for Kennedy/McGlynn, I'm happy to stick with cultivating our own.

[Sedat]

Agreed; a wise man once said "trading is the work of the devil".Clearly the devil hasn't been to the Harbour city for a holiday lately ;)

Trading overs for players that are overhyped and overrated is certainly the work of the devil. Addressing structural weaknesses via the trade table with low-value players who have under-achieved/are surplus to requirements at their present club is something that all clubs should do, in conjunction with consistent regeneration of the list via the ND.

[Remi Moses]

Given McCartney's influence and his experience at Geelong (and their hesitation to bring players in via trade), I doubt we will be big players at the trade table and simply choose to develop our own

If we do I doubt we will be involved in any big trades

Between Cordy, Hill, Grant, Roughead, Jones, Panos, Dickson etc we have quiet a few forward prospects to focus on developing

Think so as well. Basically have to sell the ranch to get a decent Key Forward.

[Murphy'sLore]

If we import a gun forward (even supposing we could get our hands on one), we run the risk of becoming "Barry-centric" again and Jones misses out on valuable experience. Let's focus on developing our own.

[LongWait]

Clearly the devil hasn't been to the Harbour city for a holiday lately ;)

Trading overs for players that are overhyped and overrated is certainly the work of the devil. Addressing structural weaknesses via the trade table with low-value players who have under-achieved/are surplus to requirements at their present club is something that all clubs should do, in conjunction with consistent regeneration of the list via the ND.

Agree completely Sedat - Sydney are the masters of the "moneyball" trade and never pay overs.

I hope that we develop our own and, if we trade, we receive draft picks rather than players. Lets spend two years developing our list from within and via the draft and if in two years we still have a pressing need for a key forward (or any other player type), only then should we trade for players.

[Eastdog]

Agree completely Sedat - Sydney are the masters of the "moneyball" trade and never pay overs.

I hope that we develop our own and, if we trade, we receive draft picks rather than players. Lets spend two years developing our list from within and via the draft and if in two years we still have a pressing need for a key forward (or any other player type), only then should we trade for players.

I believe that is the best way to go about. Do you reckon it could of been different had we got Barry Hall earlier. I don't think anyone will know.

[Driver Leader]

I mentoned in the Liam thread that I think Gia and Higgins make Jones' role harder. They aren't typical modern smalls, offering pressure and the like. They are almost like little KP forwards who do little offer than score a goal or two a game. Don't get me wrong, I think they are worth their spot but they don't really help the guys around them.

Interesting call.

I think this correct and as a result one of Gia and Higgins is one too many. Jones I think is a higher up the the ground forward who capable of receiving the releasing kick from half back however through necessity is being forced to play deep. We need him higher up and a bigger body player deep (Redpath would be good but a Rookie and a while off yet) so we have the ruckmen and will so for a while. Panos needs to play forward for Willy for a few weeks to get a chance at the post as he is being thrown everywhere currently and this is harming his chances at senior promotion.

[bornadog]

Panos needs to play forward for Willy for a few weeks to get a chance at the post as he is being thrown everywhere currently and this is harming his chances at senior promotion.

Firstly welcome to Woof with your first post.

On Panos, this is not correct. You need to read this article (http://www.westernbulldogs.com.au/westernbulldogsnewsfeatures/newsarticle/tabid/4112/newsid/134903/default.aspx)

[stefoid]

Yeah, interesting article - it goes along with what someone was saying about new new setup where basically we only have 2 stay at home forwards (tall ones who can contest the long ball I presume) and the other forwards charge up and down the ground obeying Macs mantras of 'numbers around the ball" and "defence first".

As Panos is a leading type, I guess he isnt deemed suitable to be one fo the stay at home forwards, one of which is probably going to be a resting ruck and the other Liam Jones.

[LostDoggy]

Time to start looking at our own. Just keep trying Minson, Roughy, Campbell, Cordy in there until something clicks.

I think Minson has been tried to death. He is never going to be a forward, no matter how much you shove the square peg in it just doesn't fit.


I hope we stick to picking up young players in the draft and developing our own.

So do I, but we have a certain window to do that — which luckily is now! :) Once the rest of our list is in another position to have a tilt, we may need to bring in that forward to get us over the line, much in the same way as Jolly or Ball.

[Sockeye Salmon]

I know everyone loves Panos but the reality is he is right in the gun for delisting

[Eastdog]

I know everyone loves Panos but the reality is he is right in the gun for delisting

Yeah there weren't to many positives on the weekend for Williamstown. Panos I was ordinary according to what people said from that match. Disappointing after everyone was looking forward to seeing him play in the Seniors.

[LostDoggy]

General Mac and the coaching staff are fully and completely aware that our forward line is inexperienced and undermanned , right from the start when he began to mould the game plan going into season 2012 General Mac knew that the oversize midfield part of the game plan would have to score 2/3rds of the goals and the final 1/3 from defenders moving forward , the rotating ruckman and the two forwards
By having this mindset right from the pre-season the players knew what was expected from them and that it would take time to build momentum before the game plan could be fluid and dynamic over four quarters
The one balancing point is that the oversize midfield must push forward to the 50m arc and make a decision to either hit a target or kick the goal , given that the game plan only uses two forwards the decision first and foremost should be to kick the goal
Now in order for the oversize midfield to push forward to be in a position to make a decision to score or hit a target everything goes back to the core of the game plan , win the ball at any cost , protect the ball carrier , protect the zones , use numbers behind the ball to spread and stretch the opposition zones , attack with numbers any gaps in the opposition zones
By understanding General Mac's and the coaching staffs objectives we clearly see that by building this game plan for 2012 they have taken into account the inexperienced and undermanned forward line as they try to make the team a cohesive and flexible unit , and that it requires a full rebuild of the team work ethic
Our current list may be short of one or two experienced tall forwards but General Mac and the coaching staff know development takes time , knowledge takes time , and rebuilding takes time , and that the time would be well spent if by the end of season 2012 our development of our young forwards was a bonus on top of the teams development



Interesting reading. How do you know this Westdog?


http://www.westernbulldogs.com.au/westernbulldogsnewsfeatures/newsarticle/tabid/4112/newsid/135271/default.aspx


And remember I posted what I said yesterday before the article was posted

.

[Ghost Dog]

I think Minson has been tried to death. He is never going to be a forward, no matter how much you shove the square peg in it just doesn't fit.



So do I, but we have a certain window to do that — which luckily is now! :) Once the rest of our list is in another position to have a tilt, we may need to bring in that forward to get us over the line, much in the same way as Jolly or Ball.

Now and then, it has worked.

[The Bulldogs Bite]

I know everyone loves Panos but the reality is he is right in the gun for delisting

I disagree.

He's still pretty young and they are trying to develop a well rounded game. It's obvious he has talent, but he has areas of his game that he will need to improve if he is to make it as a key defender or a key forward.

Should get 2013 too, particularly when you consider how many years we have given to our other talls.

Walsh, Wiggins, Skipper, Mulligan, Wight and even Cordy have been given ample time to show something. I don't see why Panos would be any different, particularly when on talent alone he is ahead of a few of those guys.

[LongWait]

Yeah there weren't to many positives on the weekend for Williamstown. Panos I was ordinary according to what people said from that match. Disappointing after everyone was looking forward to seeing him play in the Seniors.

I agree Eastdog, however I'd ask that you remember that Panos was All Australian as an 18 year old and was bloody good for Willi in a losing Grand Final when he was still one of the youngest players on either team.

I'd be disappointed if we were looking to delist Panos at years' end. It seems from the recent article that Bornadog posted that the coach has identified Panos' deficiencies and the club (and Williamstown) are prepared to give him the experiences up the ground and in defence so that he understands and practices the things the coach expects of him. We all know he can kick the bloody thing. Unfortunately that is not enough in the modern game (it's a bloody good start though!)

[Eastdog]

I agree Eastdog, however I'd ask that you remember that Panos was All Australian as an 18 year old and was bloody good for Willi in a losing Grand Final when he was still one of the youngest players on either team.

I'd be disappointed if we were looking to delist Panos at years' end. It seems from the recent article that Bornadog posted that the coach has identified Panos' deficiencies and the club (and Williamstown) are prepared to give him the experiences up the ground and in defence so that he understands and practices the things the coach expects of him. We all know he can kick the bloody thing. Unfortunately that is not enough in the modern game (it's a bloody good start though!)

I think like with Jones we have persist with Panos as well. There both still young. Jones we have gone on and on about has lots of potential he needs to improve his kicking game.

[BulldogBelle]

I agree Eastdog, however I'd ask that you remember that Panos was All Australian as an 18 year old and was bloody good for Willi in a losing Grand Final when he was still one of the youngest players on either team.

I'd be disappointed if we were looking to delist Panos at years' end. It seems from the recent article that Bornadog posted that the coach has identified Panos' deficiencies and the club (and Williamstown) are prepared to give him the experiences up the ground and in defence so that he understands and practices the things the coach expects of him. We all know he can kick the bloody thing. Unfortunately that is not enough in the modern game (it's a bloody good start though!)



We have kept Muli-grub on our list for 4 years?

[LongWait]

I think like with Jones we have persist with Panos as well. There both still young. Jones we have gone on and on about has lots of potential he needs to improve his kicking game.

If only we could find a way to combine the fast moving, contested marking Jones with the deadly accurate Panos to create the perfect power forward!!!!

[Eastdog]

If only we could find a way to combine the fast moving, contested marking Jones with the deadly accurate Panos to create the perfect power forward!!!!

That would be good.

[Maddog37]

http://www.westernbulldogs.com.au/westernbulldogsnewsfeatures/newsarticle/tabid/4112/newsid/135271/default.aspx


And remember I posted what I said yesterday before the article was posted

.

I appreciate that but was wondering how you came to those conclusions?

[LostDoggy]

I appreciate that but was wondering how you came to those conclusions?

There are no conclusions , none whatsoever , this is the first season under General Mac , we are still in the first stage after the pre-season, to presume that I have come to a series of conclusions means that you presume that the process is being concluded , just for your own benefit review the pre-season and NAB Cup games and the Rounds so far and chronologically arrange the progress of the team and the game plan on an individual and team basis along with the press statements from the Club and General Mac , and you will be all to aware that my post would be the mirror image of your review , basically my post was three months of compressed hard data

.

[LostDoggy]

Walsh, Wiggins, Skipper, Mulligan, Wight and even Cordy have been given ample time to show something. I don't see why Panos would be any different, particularly when on talent alone he is ahead of a few of those guys.

I must disagree on Cordy, though you're bang on the buck with the rest you named. Cordy's had some injury setbacks and he was always going to take years to get the right type of body, with or without the injuries. He has shown many glimpses this season that he's going to be a very good player for us when he's a few years further down the track.


If only we could find a way to combine the fast moving, contested marking Jones with the deadly accurate Panos to create the perfect power forward!!!!

The Frankenforward!

[G-Mo77]

If only we could find a way to combine the fast moving, contested marking Jones with the deadly accurate Panos to create the perfect power forward!!!!

Haha. Love it!

I've not given up on Panos yet. He's had a few set backs so far this year and think he'll get some time at senior level at some stage.