Match Preview: Round 17 Western Bulldogs vs Carlton

[azabob]

When and Where

Saturday, July 21st
7:40pm
Etihad Stadium

Last time they met

Round 16 2011

Western Bulldogs 14.12 (96) Defeated
Carlton 9.15 (69)

Form leading in

Western Bulldogs- LWLLL

Carlton- LLLWL

Western Bulldogs

2012 began as the year of hope, a new dawn if you will, but 2012 has slowly become the year of demise and despair with some supporters now comparing our current situation to the Rhode era. Starting the season off relative well the Bulldogs were competitive in all games for most parts (bar one or two). However since round ten the club as a whole has looked to be going through the motions and has been smashed from pillar to post on the field and off the field.

The main focus for 2012 has been to win the contested possession which they have mastered, but as a result the bulldogs are continually struggling to run and spread to the next contest, coupled with poor skill level and a lack of quick ball movement has made the bulldogs a very easy team to score against.

On the flip side, poor skills and slow ball movement has made it extremely difficult for the forwards to kick a score, let alone a winning score. Over the last 5 weeks the dogs have averaged a poultry 59.2 points per game, even more damning is in last 3 outings the dogs have not kicked over 8 goals.

Carlton

After winning the 2011 elimination final (their first final win in 10 years) and narrowly losing the next week by less than a kick to the Eagles in Perth, going into the 2012 season expectation was high for the Carlton football club to finally push back into the top four.

Early on in the season from the outside looking in they were on track only losing one game in their first six (round 4 loss to Essendon). Since then the wheels have well and truly fallen off, wining only 2 out of their last 9 games and now it is likely coach Brett Ratten will be looking for a new gig come the end of 2012. Injuries to key players Marc Murphy (before his injury close to the best player in the league), Jarrod Waite, Andrew Carrazzo and role players Jerrmery Laidler and Lachie Henderson have exposed Carlton’s lack of quality depth.

With Waite hardly getting on the park Carlton have toyed with a make shift forward line, rotating 3 ruckman deep forward with limited success (sound familiar?)
As per previous seasons Carlton have had to rely on quick ball movement & clean skills (think Yarran, Murphy, Duigen, Gibbs) and using their leg speed (think Yarran, Gartlett, Betts, Walker) to advantage across the ground and to try and kick a winning score.

Key Match Ups

Cross V Murphy

With no Waite and Judd there is no doubt Murphy is Carlton most important player. Our 3 options to go with Murphy are either Boyd, Cross or Picken. For the bulldogs to have any chance of kicking a winning score we need to take the game on more which means Cross gets the gig which will allow Boyd to hurt Carlton offensively (fingers crossed) and Picken will be required to curb Yarran’s run from defence.
This will be Murphy’s second game back after a long layoff and may be a bit worse for wear. Cross will have no trouble keeping up with Murphy aerobically and may even be able to hurt Murphy offensively later in the game as Murphy tires.

Picken V Yarran

When Carlton plays well normally it is due to Yarran’s run and carry off the half back line. For the dogs to win it is critical we don’t allow Yarran any time or space and the best man for that job is Liam Picken. When Yarran see’s Picken coming for him Yarran will know he is in for a tough night and this will play on his mind.

Hargrave / ?? V Betts/Gartlett

Trying to contain Betts and Gartlett will be our biggest issue. Don’t be surprised to see photos of Betts and Gartlett in the Sunday papers after kicking 8 between them and getting Carlton over the line. Hargrave in the past has been ideally suited to pick up Betts, now perhaps not, but reality is he is currently our best option. We really are struggling for agile small defenders who have the ability to go with the small forward who is either quick or a strong mark.

Griffen V Carrazzo
Carrazzo is Carlton’s best stopper, so expect him to go to Griffen. The big worry for Griffen is Carrazzo is also a ball magnet in his own right so Griffen will have to also worry about Carrazzo when Carlton have the footy. This is a major challenge for Griffen to not only work hard going offensively but also to work just as hard defensively.


Who will Win and Why?

For the Bulldogs to have any chance they need to be able to score a minimum of 12-15 goals, which on recent form will be difficult. If the Bulldogs can move the ball quickly into their forward line on a regular basis they have smart enough players (think Higgins, Giansiracusa, Dickson) to put the Carlton defense under pressure. Tom Williams should start forward again as he was lively last week presented well and made space for his fellow forwards. With Kruzer as Carlton’s only recognised ruckman, (my understanding Warnock is still suspended) this is a great opportunity for Minson to really work Kreuzer over and push forward at every opportunity. As always the midfield for either side will be the key and whoever is able to provide their forward line with continual supply most likely will win the game.

The bulldogs have a real opportunity to win this game, Carlton is not in great form and are missing key players through injury and suspension, however due to our very poor performances recently I cannot see our ball use improving dramatically enough to kick a winning score.

Carlton by 23 points.

[Hotdog60]

Great writeup azabob.

I think you nailed the match ups very well, I think this week the selection table may be the key for the dogs. Do we persist with our rucks as Full forward or do we give the job to a player that has play that postionfor most of their careers.

I would like to see Panos get the gig at Cordy's expense or even Hill who although hasn't play VFL seniors knows how to play the role and could kicking nothing be any worse than Cordy kicking nothing. At lest Hill has made double figures at FF although the quality of FB maybe questioned. But it does show he can play the position.

It's time to throw these guys to the wolves and see if they are up to it and who knows they may be different players when in the Seniors, with more focus and determination to perform.

[Go_Dogs]

Great work on the preview azabob.

Another tough game this week, but against an opponent that is struggling with form. I'm at least hopeful of a closer game.

A good opportunity to have another look at Williams up forward.

[Ghost Dog]

Quality write up. Going to send it to my Carlton mate.

This is a good game for smaller backmen to learn a thing or two.
If we have any ambitions to keep Vezpremi next season, he needs to be played.
Like to see Roberts given a go as well; a better option in terms of leg speed in the backline.
Murphy gets toweled up by small forwards like Betts, so better off throwing him down forward for a bit.

[Maddog37]

We need to focus on getting someone else off the leash when Griff gets tagged. Someone needs to be designated a role that won't be focussed on cracking in. Sherman or Tutt come to mind or even Gilbee.

[Sockeye Salmon]

We need to focus on getting someone else off the leash when Griff gets tagged. Someone needs to be designated a role that won't be focussed on cracking in. Sherman or Tutt come to mind or even Gilbee.

Murphy.

B: Smith, Lake, Hargrave
HB: Higgins, Austin, Gilbee
C: Griffen, Boyd, Murphy
HF: Dahlhaus, Williams, Picken
F: Dickson, Jones, Giansiracusa
R: Minson, Liberatore, Wallis
I: Cross, Tutt, Grant, Johannesen

[G-Mo77]

Great preview Aza

In regards to the Betts match up it is a real concern.

Addison completely shut down Betts last time we played them, think it was NAB cup. I remember him kicking 2 or 3 before Dylan moved onto him and he hardly got near it after that. I don't see a good matchup for him at all from our current team and don't really have a good small defender down at Willy. Pearce could get a call up but he got eaten alive by Motlop against the Cats.

[bulldogsman]

Thanks for the preview azabob.
Hargrave I feel, has to play on Betts.

As terrible as we have been, I think we may actually win this one.

[Go_Dogs]

Thanks for the preview azabob.
Hargrave I feel, has to play on Betts.

As terrible as we have been, I think we may actually win this one.

Hargrave is out.

I really hope our plan isn't to play Vez or Howard on Betts??!

[bulldogsman]

Ok so Hargrave is not playing, I'm guessing Murphy will have to play on Betts. Not ideal.

[Go_Dogs]

Ok so Hargrave is not playing, I'm guessing Murphy will have to play on Betts. Not ideal.

Agreed, not ideal. Potentially robs us of most of our drive from defence if Murph has to go to him, but our other options would most likely get slaughtered so perhaps this is our thinking. I guess then Vez/Pearce are in to cover the loss of run with Murph being more defensively minded. The jobs our small defenders face will, in general be a good test for them.

[Greystache]

Great preview Aza.

Selections have been interesting, they have lost a lot of good players, and we look no mote likely to kick a score than any other week.

[azabob]

Ok so Hargrave is not playing, I'm guessing Murphy will have to play on Betts. Not ideal.

Agree, another interesting selection.

[G-Mo77]

Ok so Hargrave is not playing, I'm guessing Murphy will have to play on Betts. Not ideal.

I think we'll try Pearce or Howard on him looking at the Ins and Outs which is not ideal either.

[Mantis]

I think we'll try Pearce or Howard on him looking at the Ins and Outs which is not ideal either.

:eek:

What are odds for Betts most goals?

[G-Mo77]

:eek:

What are odds for Betts most goals?

There's not much competition. Not worth the bett.

[jeemak]

Thanks for writing that up, well done.

I agree that somebody needs to shut down Murphy, though on the other hand I believe that Carrazzo is the Blues most improtant midfielder this week due to the protection and hard ball wins he offers the Carlton team respectively.

I'd actually get Boyd to do it, Cross would be too slow for mine (though, it's not a sprinter race between the two).

Picken on Yarran is a good call.

[Bumper Bulldogs]

It should be a close game with the outs that the Blues currently have. IMO the game will be won in the midle and with the Blues not having a ruck man Minson should dominate and give our mids first use of the pill. With our midfield on top it surely should give our forwards a much needed change on the way the ball enters the forward fifty. I can see the dogs going with a tall forward line as we did against the power for a similar result.

A must win game for the dogs to take some pressure of the Club, Coaches and players.

I really think that we have a lot more to loss than Carlton in this game as with their outs we will be expected to win. The blues will use the outs to defend a loss against the dogs, while we will not have any excuses not to knock of a side full of second rate players.

[Murphy'sLore]

I'm just not expecting to win anything any more.

[Mantis]

Thanks for writing that up, well done.

I agree that somebody needs to shut down Murphy, though on the other hand I believe that Carrazzo is the Blues most improtant midfielder this week due to the protection and hard ball wins he offers the Carlton team respectively.

I'd actually get Boyd to do it, Cross would be too slow for mine (though, it's not a sprinter race between the two)

When was the last time Boydy effectively shut down a player?

[Bumper Bulldogs]

I'm just not expecting to win anything any more.

Oh come on we still have the young blokes to think of, don't loss the faith.

[Murphy'sLore]

Young 'blocks' is what worries me!

[bornadog]

great preview Aza, this game is now looming as the one that we clutch defeat from the jaws of victory:D

I really don't like the way Macca has been playing Murphy this year. Especially when he plays him on a dangerous forward that he needs to shut down, we lose all our drive from the backline. Betts towled up Murph in the NAB cup, so I hope he doesn't go to him. I guess we have to throw Pearce or Howard in the deep end.

[DragzLS1]

great preview Aza, this game is now looming as the one that we clutch defeat from the jaws of victory:D

I really don't like the way Macca has been playing Murphy this year. Especially when he plays him on a dangerous forward that he needs to shut down, we lose all our drive from the backline. Betts towled up Murph in the NAB cup, so I hope he doesn't go to him. I guess we have to throw Pearce or Howard in the deep end.

Please, not howard :s Betts is having a great season and no point throwing murphy on him coz he will still kick a handful of goals..

Lets just hope we win the midfield battle and dont give them enough chances ;)

[jeemak]

When was the last time Boydy effectively shut down a player?

Probably 2008 when he purposefully shut down Kerr at Docklands!

I think he's capable of doing it, and I would be extremely disappointed if he thought he was above sacrificing his own game if it was thought the team would benefit from him doing so.

[Ghost Dog]

Please, not howard :s Betts is having a great season and no point throwing murphy on him coz he will still kick a handful of goals..

Lets just hope we win the midfield battle and dont give them enough chances ;)

I would be putting Dahlhaus on Betts or Griffen ( sounds odd I know but he can be changed around too ) and have them striking back on the turnover through halfback.
It makes me furious when small forwards just walk over us every single bloody time.
Milne, Malera, Betts, Garlett and the list goes on.

[bulldogsman]

Please, not howard :s Betts is having a great season and no point throwing murphy on him coz he will still kick a handful of goals..

Lets just hope we win the midfield battle and dont give them enough chances ;)

I think we should smash them in the midfield since Carlton are without a designated ruckman and Judd. Also apart from Betts, Carlton's forward line is hardly dangerous. Lake should be able to cut off many attacks.

I'm confident we can win this one and I'm tipping the dogs for the first time since the Port game.

[Dancin' Douggy]

Let's hope Will tears them several new ones.

[Nuggety Back Pocket]

great preview Aza, this game is now looming as the one that we clutch defeat from the jaws of victory:D

I really don't like the way Macca has been playing Murphy this year. Especially when he plays him on a dangerous forward that he needs to shut down, we lose all our drive from the backline. Betts towled up Murph in the NAB cup, so I hope he doesn't go to him. I guess we have to throw Pearce or Howard in the deep end.

The good sides also effectively have dragged Murphy back deep to cut off his drive from half back. The loss of Morris and now Addison and drop off in form of both Gilbee and Hargrave hasn't helped. I would still love to see Murphy at half forward to lift our poor attack.

[Ghost Dog]

The good sides also effectively have dragged Murphy back deep to cut off his drive from half back. The loss of Morris and now Addison and drop off in form of both Gilbee and Hargrave hasn't helped. I would still love to see Murphy at half forward to lift our poor attack.

Gilbee surprised me in his return game actually. Despite a horrid clanger that gifted a goal, he did some good things.

[Greystache]

The good sides also effectively have dragged Murphy back deep to cut off his drive from half back. The loss of Morris and now Addison and drop off in form of both Gilbee and Hargrave hasn't helped. I would still love to see Murphy at half forward to lift our poor attack.

I agree. Teams are setting up to limit Murphy's defensive rebound and have been successful in exploiting his defensive weaknesses. It's difficult as we don't really have many options to combat small quick forwards with Morris' injury and our general lack of pace and athleticism on the list, but I think Murphy's output has been pretty limited this year and it's time to move him back to the forward line for a period.

[Sockeye Salmon]

I agree. Teams are setting up to limit Murphy's defensive rebound and have been successful in exploiting his defensive weaknesses. It's difficult as we don't really have many options to combat small quick forwards with Morris' injury and our general lack of pace and athleticism on the list, but I think Murphy's output has been pretty limited this year and it's time to move him back to the forward line for a period.

Move him into the midfield rather than forward.

[The Bulldogs Bite]

I think we should smash them in the midfield since Carlton are without a designated ruckman and Judd. Also apart from Betts, Carlton's forward line is hardly dangerous. Lake should be able to cut off many attacks.

I'm confident we can win this one and I'm tipping the dogs for the first time since the Port game.

Likewise.

My only concern is Betts and Garlett -- with the likes of Howard, Pearce and Veszpremi as our small defensive options, I could see them kicking 5 each.

Garlett has been horrible this season, but naturally we'll play him back into form.

Hold these two and we'll win IMO.

[Greystache]

Move him into the midfield rather than forward.

He's never been a prolific ball winner through the midfield and his accountability is questionable at best. Transition from halfback, lead up options across half forward, and the final kick into the forward 50m have been major issues all season. Murphy moving to half forward could help to improve that area of the ground (and hopefully make us a bit more watchable)

[azabob]

Likewise.

My only concern is Betts and Garlett -- with the likes of Howard, Pearce and Veszpremi as our small defensive options, I could see them kicking 5 each.

Garlett has been horrible this season, but naturally we'll play him back into form.

Hold these two and we'll win IMO.

I touched on our lack of agile backman to hold Betts and Garlett. Garlett hasn't had a sniff all year, but likely he will kick a few tonight and if Betts and Garlett kick a few each, we will struggle to win.

[Rocco Jones]

I wouldn't mind seeing Grant on Garlett for a bit. Grant has the raw pace and it's not like Garlett is physical. Howard and Gilbee just are too slow.

I would also like to see Picken go to Yarran and really bully him. Added bonus of Liam's goal nous.

[Rocco Jones]

It makes me furious when small forwards just walk over us every single bloody time.
Milne, Malera, Betts, Garlett and the list goes on.

In his one game they beat us by 63 points, pretty easy game for a small forward. He got 15 touches, 2 tackles and didn't even bother the scorers. His direct opponent, the mighty Dylan Addison, had 18 touches, 2 tackles and scored a behind.

[F'scary]

The good sides also effectively have dragged Murphy back deep to cut off his drive from half back. The loss of Morris and now Addison and drop off in form of both Gilbee and Hargrave hasn't helped. I would still love to see Murphy at half forward to lift our poor attack.

This is yet another of the suggestions I was throwing around before Round 1 that should have been taken up by the coach.

I am really pleased to see Williams named at full forward. Might be the go to try and make this his permanent spot. If he knows how to lead and can convert at a rate of about 67%, FF problem solved for the next 2 years or so. At least we're trying a class player there this time.

For me, its getting a bit make or break with Cordy as a forward. I'm almost convinced he's a ruckman and that's that. Because of the sub rule, Minson and the second ruckman can just take turns to hide in the forward pocket. Any input they have there is a bonus - generally expect nothing.

So Gilbee gets another game. I really don't understand how this contributes to rebuilding our side. Sorry but for me, its now the same with Gia.

Thanks for the top preview Azabob, better than MSM as I say. Also, Picken must be in the running for b&f this year. Captain next year?

[bornadog]

So Gilbee gets another game. I really don't understand how this contributes to rebuilding our side. Sorry but for me, its now the same with Gia.

Gia/Gilbee and other senior players are mentors to young players and help them on the ground. Like it or not that is how the coach has structured it.

[Ghost Dog]

In his one game they beat us by 63 points, pretty easy game for a small forward. He got 15 touches, 2 tackles and didn't even bother the scorers. His direct opponent, the mighty Dylan Addison, had 18 touches, 2 tackles and scored a behind.

You take my point though. Our backline is slow. Krakouer, Betts, the list goes on

[Hotdog60]

Gilbee had a reasonable game against freo. Pace is a issue but he has been out of the seniors for a long while and he maybe a useful player once he gets back to the pace of the game.
While on Gilbee could we offer him a coaching role next year as a kicking skills coach. Didn't have a junior kicking school a season or two back. God knows we need someone to tutor the youngsters like clay. Imagine if he had Gilbee's kicking skills he would be a real weapon.

[Bumper Bulldogs]

Gilbee had a reasonable game against freo. Pace is a issue but he has been out of the seniors for a long while and he maybe a useful player once he gets back to the pace of the game.
While on Gilbee could we offer him a coaching role next year as a kicking skills coach. Didn't have a junior kicking school a season or two back. God knows we need someone to tutor the youngsters like clay. Imagine if he had Gilbee's kicking skills he would be a real weapon.

No need to pay him as a coach next year, he shouldbe doing this now with any spare time they get, this is the model that MBac is bedding down into our club now.

[BulldogBelle]

Thanks for the top preview Azabob, better than MSM as I say. Also, Picken must be in the running for b&f this year. Captain next year?

What's wrong with Boyd? Can't make changes just for the sake of making changes.

[KT31]

Thanks for the top preview Azabob, better than MSM as I say. Also, Picken must be in the running for b&f this year. Captain next year?

Boyd will still be a well desevant Captain next season.
What sort of message would it send out to the group if a bloke who bleeds for us and puts it all on the line each week in and week out gets the take the captaincy taken away from him ?
Picken should end up in the top players but IMO it will come down to Boyd and Griff.

[F'scary]

Boyd will still be a well desevant Captain next season.
What sort of message would it send out to the group if a bloke who bleeds for us and puts it all on the line each week in and week out gets the take the captaincy taken away from him ?
Picken should end up in the top players but IMO it will come down to Boyd and Griff.

Ok, but maybe 2014 if he (Picken) keeps playing like he does.