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View Full Version : Match Preview: Round 18 Western Bulldogs vs St.Kilda



Nuggety Back Pocket
24-07-2012, 04:47 PM
Where and When
Sunday 29 July
3.15pm
Etihad Stadium

Last time they met
Round 3 2012, St. Kilda by 63 points

Recent Form
St.Kilda LLWWL (edit)
Western Bulldogs LLLLL

Western Bulldogs
The major problem has been an ineffective attack with average points for being 71 to the Saints 105. Average possessions has seen us with 370 to St. Kilda's 350, indicating our ability to win the ball, whilst laying 63 tackles to the Saints 68, should make us competitive around the contest. Poor disposal and lack of penetration up forward, where the experiment of playing Cordy at full forward hasn't worked, suggests a lack of imagination by the MC. Similarly the decision to play Murphy in a back pocket has limited his value as an attacking half back.

St. Kilda
The Saints, whilst just short of the elite level, has been a very committed and competitive outfit as evidenced by their bold showing against ladder leaders the Sydney Swans at the weekend. The introduction of young talent in Saad, Simpkin, Siposs, Milera and Dunell has helped revitalise their line up.
A star studded midfield of Dal Santo, Hayes and Montagna ensures plenty of ball supply to the likes of Milne and Riewoldt.
With the prospect of making the final 8 this loops as a must win for them.

Key Match Ups

Picken v Milne
I have opted to play Picken on Milne because of his hardness and preparedness to put maximum pressure on Milne who will be chock full of confidence after his brilliant 5 goals against the Sydney Swans. My hope is that the MC doesn't fail again by playing Murphy in this role.

http://img138.imageshack.us/img138/9128/pickengwilt.jpg

Williams v Riewoldt
There will be a temptation to continue with Williams in attack. Williams is our best CHB and will be required to quell the talented Riewoldt. Lake to hold Koschitzke and to provide some run off him.

http://img254.imageshack.us/img254/9094/williamsriewoldt.jpg

Wallis v Dal Santo
After using Wallis in the tough role of blanketing the Hawks Sam Mitchell I can see Wallis being given a tagging role on Dal Santo who invariably plays well against the Bulldogs. This will be another steep learning curve for Mitch who has done well this year.

Murphy v Montagna
I have pitted Murph against Montagna out on the wing, where his pace and skill will ensure good supply into our forward line. Murphy did well when used in this position against Collingwood and the change should give him a new lease of life.

Jones v Fisher
Jones at CHF looms as the best prospect of matching the dangerous Fisher. It will be important for Liam to play a close checking role on Fisher who with Gilbert generate significant attack out of the Saints half back line.

Griffen v Jones
Griff's form has tapered off in recent weeks and he can again expect tough opposition from one of the best taggers in Jones. Earlier in the year Cooney was used to good effect in a blocking role for Griffen and this task could be given to Cross who would revel in this role in clearing a path for a resurgent Griffen.

http://img210.imageshack.us/img210/505/crossjones.jpg

Who will win and why?
This match could well be decided at the selection table. I would bring in Jones, Dickson (assuming he’s OK), Hargrave and Roughead at the expense of Cordy, DJ, Pearce and the injured Higgins. Grant, a good inclusion last week, could alternate with Dickson at half forward and full forward, with Roughead or Minson becoming the marking forward when resting.

Boyd's ability to match Hayes will be a key to the outcome.

http://img407.imageshack.us/img407/5215/boydhayes.jpg

I am expecting an improved showing after 5 losses by the Dogs with a more flexible attack and dare I say it, quicker ball movement with more precise disposal.

St. Kilda to win by 11 points, with the Bulldogs capable of an upset if they get their match ups right.

bornadog
24-07-2012, 04:57 PM
Excellent preview. One small error, Saints lost their last match.

Murphy went to Milne last time and kept him quiet, but that is a negative move as it stops our rebound 50's. Not sure who Picken will go to.

Do you think Libba will follow Hayes around as part of his development?

Greystache
24-07-2012, 06:04 PM
Great preview NBP, really enjoyed reading it.

I like some of the match ups, mixing up some player's roles and trying to better balance the team.

LostDoggy
24-07-2012, 06:15 PM
Murphy wont play wing, I havent seen him there all year.

SlimPickens
24-07-2012, 06:30 PM
Thanks NBP

Last time against the Saints was an absolute disaster here is hoping for a better performance.

I would also like to see Murphy a little further up the ground but not sure it will happen.

If we are any chance of winning this game we must win the midfield battle. Lenny Hayes has to be shut down as a priority which hasn't happened in our recent matches against the Saints.

Go_Dogs
24-07-2012, 06:35 PM
Love your work NBP, terrific preview - some well reasoned matchups and hard to disagree with what you propose.

I agree that it's time to switch a few things up, and hopefully Murph having a bit more licence/freedom is one of them because if we can get him and Griff more ball outside of the contest, we may just be able to deliver enough quality ball inside 50 to kick a winning score.

Nuggety Back Pocket
24-07-2012, 07:39 PM
Excellent preview. One small error, Saints lost their last match.

Murphy went to Milne last time and kept him quiet, but that is a negative move as it stops our rebound 50's. Not sure who Picken will go to.

Do you think Libba will follow Hayes around as part of his development?

Thanks for your comments Bad which is appreciated. The club needs to be careful that it doesn't place too much pressure on youngsters like Libba in putting him up against strong bodied players like Lenny Hayes. Both Liberatore and Wallis have done remarkably well but still need protecting.

Sedat
24-07-2012, 09:56 PM
Excellent preview NBP.

For anyone that likes a flutter, get on Lenny Hayes to be BOG - nobody in the history of VFL/AFL has owned a team like Lenny has against us.

Saints will win by 50+ points. We were absolutely deplorable earlier in the season against them - we were 2.8.20 approaching time on in the last qtr under the roof at Etihad, which unfortynately was a precurser of things to come later in the season.

Sockeye Salmon
24-07-2012, 10:38 PM
Murphy wont play wing, I havent seen him there all year.

He haven't, but he should.

Murphy has been down all year, a bit of being dragged away from the action and a bit of being given defensive jobs (WTF would you do that?).

We could do with getting his ball use back further up the ground.

LostDoggy
25-07-2012, 12:30 PM
He haven't, but he should.

Murphy has been down all year, a bit of being dragged away from the action and a bit of being given defensive jobs (WTF would you do that?).

We could do with getting his ball use back further up the ground.

I remember Murphy leading out at HF, taking a mark on the lead, playing on imediately via a sidestep and drilling the ball into forward 50 with precision multiple occasions in a match.

I miss this.

LostDoggy
25-07-2012, 01:54 PM
Nice preview. Would love to see Picken smash that little germ Milne but I think Picken will go to Hayes or Dal Santo.

Can't see us getting close unfortunately. St Kilda are a team that we always seem to struggle against even when we are playing well.

I think it will be 40+ points but I hope I'm wrong.

Remi Moses
25-07-2012, 04:18 PM
If we've got one more win I hope it's this game

Eastdog
25-07-2012, 07:02 PM
If we've got one more win I hope it's this game

I hope so to get that winning feeling back again which we haven't had in a while but against the Saints it's going to be another tough one as the are pushing for the top 8.

jeemak
26-07-2012, 12:54 AM
I remember Murphy leading out at HF, taking a mark on the lead, playing on imediately via a sidestep and drilling the ball into forward 50 with precision multiple occasions in a match.

I miss this.

The mantra for him not fulfilling this role has been one of pushing his creativity, but also preserving his body.

Personally, I don't think playing a leading half forward role is that hard on the body, and our side has suffered greatly without someone of his calibre not fulfilling this role.

Unfortunately we robbed Peter to pay Paul by putting him back, and now that Paul is out of cash Peter is left high and dry. If we hadn't have lost Harbrow putting Murphy forward wouldn't be as unrealistic as it seems now, as we'd have someone to move the ball forward with some semblence of creativity.

Good work on the preview though NBP. Thanks.

DragzLS1
26-07-2012, 11:43 AM
The mantra for him not fulfilling this role has been one of pushing his creativity, but also preserving his body.

Personally, I don't think playing a leading half forward role is that hard on the body, and our side has suffered greatly without someone of his calibre not fulfilling this role.

Unfortunately we robbed Peter to pay Paul by putting him back, and now that Paul is out of cash Peter is left high and dry. If we hadn't have lost Harbrow putting Murphy forward wouldn't be as unrealistic as it seems now, as we'd have someone to move the ball forward with some semblence of creativity.

Good work on the preview though NBP. Thanks.


Agree with this! We need Harbrow back stat!

Eastdog
26-07-2012, 11:50 AM
Harbrow and Ward thinking about were big losses for us as they were both important players going forward. That's done now and we have to go on and develop a competitive team again.

bornadog
26-07-2012, 01:40 PM
Harbrow and Ward thinking about were big losses for us as they were both important players going forward. That's done now and we have to go on and develop a competitive team again.

Harbrow and Ward are long gone. What we have to think about is the future and finding players to replace them.