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F'scary
20-01-2013, 03:43 PM
Greetings fragile earthling supporters of WB.

I have been pondering the subject of team selections in 2013 – who will get how many games and where.

Obviously, players will be selected on form, fitness and suitability for strategic & positional needs of the team.

Beyond a handful of safe bets (injuries not withstanding), it is impossible to really get any thorough sense from this perspective at this time of the year as to who are going to be the main players for the year.

Nevertheless, for fun and to aid analysis & speculation, I have put a model together for who ever wants to download it and have a play.

Basically, I have taken the team list and added a few columns (the green columns) so that you can put in an estimation of how many games each player will get and where they will generally line up (back, forward, midfield). The % games played column (column R) is the basic input column that drives the number of games played column (column S). But if you want you can type over the formula in S to directly input the number of games. You can change what part of the ground they will play in as well (column T).

There is a yellow-coloured summary area that shows whether or not you have exceeded the total games by positions available (22 games * 22 positions). As alluded to above, a further refinement is added so that you can designate the general role for each player (back, forward, midfield – note that bench spots are treated as midfield in this simple model).

The worksheet is protected. But if you want to really change/enhance it, the password is “doggies”.

The current values in the green columns reflect my attempt at getting an idea of the general ‘shape’ of team in 2013. I have assumed no player will get more 90% of total games due to injuries. Some other assumptions, like Stringer won’t be left in the reserves for long, have been entered in the comments column (which is editable – put in your own as you please). I have put a slant on getting games into the younger players. In doing so, to remain within the total games limit, I have had to cut back on games for a few of the stalwarts over the past 5 to 10 years.

Anyway, if anyone has some fun with this and wants to post back or say the whole idea is a nebulous meandering through the vale of fruitlessness, etc., you are most welcome.

GVGjr
20-01-2013, 06:14 PM
Love your work, just having a good look at it now.

always right
20-01-2013, 06:19 PM
Good stuff. I just need to be in the right mood to play with the model.:)

F'scary
20-01-2013, 07:26 PM
thanks guys. It's all grist for the mill for crazies like us.

LostDoggy
21-01-2013, 12:46 AM
Outstanding work, F'scary! Will be interesting to revisit at season's end to see how accurate your crystal ball is. :)

F'scary
21-01-2013, 02:36 PM
Outstanding work, F'scary! Will be interesting to revisit at season's end to see how accurate your crystal ball is. :)

Thanks RWB54.

It is not meant to be a prediction (although, come to think of it, why not? All fun), just simply an aid to trying to get some insight on implications of various factors, including selection policy (I have assumed in my allocation that the priority is to get games into younger players, all other things being equal - which they will not be, e.g., readiness of younger players, incidence of injuries across the list, form of various players, balancing need to be competitive against development, etc).

Having fiddled around with the allocations in the model, it seems to me that a big issue for WB coaching staff & selection committee is that if you want younger players, particularly those that were higher draft selections or have shown positive signs, to get more experience, older players are going to have to be dropped! Furthermore, second tier players like Goodes, Lower, perhaps Marko, etc are also going to have to be used as backfill or stop-gap. In other words, their career development comes a distant second!

The model really helps one to see that there is an opportunity cost for each selection choice!

cheers