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View Full Version : Round 8 Preview - Gold Coast v Western Bulldogs



boydogs
14-05-2013, 10:38 PM
When and Where

Saturday 18th May
Metricon Stadium 4.40pm

Last 5 Times

Round 8, 19 May 2012 TIO Western Bulldogs defeated Gold Coast 72-34
Round 14, 25 Jun 2011 Metricon Western Bulldogs defeated Gold Coast 110-88
Round 3, 9 Apr 2011 ES Western Bulldogs defeated Gold Coast 122-51



Key Stats

Gold Coast Stat Western Bulldogs

52.7 Inside 50s 46.4

152.7 Contested Possessions 148.6

198.9 Uncontested Possessions 184.4

246.1 Effective Disposals 228.4

70% Effective Disposal % 68.6%

51.3 Clangers 47.7

10.1 Contested Marks 12.1

11.6 Marks Inside 50 7.6

39.7 Clearances 40.9



Form leading in

Gold Coast $1.59 LLWLW

The Suns in their 3rd year are starting to account for some of the competition's easy beats, with wins over St Kilda, GWS and Melbourne, and a narrow 2 point loss to Brisbane. They sit 13th on the ladder, but equal on wins with 9th placed Adelaide. They are coming off their first win in Melbourne, a 10 goal thumping of the Demons, and will have their tails up heading back home trying to beat the Dogs and go 4-4.

Western Bulldogs $2.35 LLLLL

You know you're struggling when your losing streak is expressed across multiple seasons, with the Dogs having lost 17 of their last 18 games since Round 12, 2012. Much of the public pressure however has been on the Demons, who have been less competitive - their percentage of 55% is much lower than the Dogs' 71.1%. However, the Dogs will surely come under the spotlight if they are accounted for by the Suns this week as easily as they accounted for Melbourne last week.



Line Ups (Round 7)

Gold Coast

B: T.McKenzie T.Murphy S.Day
HB: D.Swallow R.Thompson G.Broughton
C: M.Shaw G.Ablett J.Harbrow
HF: H.Bennell TJ.Lynch J.Lonergan
F: B.Matera S.May A.Hall
R: Z.Smith J.O'Meara D.Prestia
I/C from: C.Brown, J.Brennan, D.Stanley
Emg: J.Hutchins, C.Cameron, L.Russell, T Sumner

Western Bulldogs

F: D.Morris J.Roughead L.Markovic
HB: L.Picken T.Young J.Johannisen
C: T.Liberatore M.Boyd N.Lower
HF: C.Smith L.Jones D.Giansiracusa
F: L.Dahlhaus R.Murphy D.Addison
R: W.Minson, A.Cooney R.Griffen
I/C: M.Wallis D.Cross J.Tutt M.Austin
EMG: K.Stevens, C.Howard, T.Campbell



Key Matchups

Picken v Ablett
Surely Picken has to go to the little master, Lower does his best work on the inside mids and will be burnt by Gary for pace. I haven't rated Picken's work down back this year, I think we get more out of him in this role.

Addison v Harbrow
Our half forward line has been a springboard for a while, but much more so this season and since the loss of Higgins and Dickson. Murphy and Gia back last week helped, but Jones is being forced to lead a long way up the ground and a lack of marking targets inside 50 will mean Addison's forward pressure will be key in locking the ball in.

Prestia v Griffen
Prestia did a number on Nathan Jones last week, keeping him to 20 possessions whilst he collected 30 himself. We need Griff to get off the leash again and work both ways to disrupt their attack

Thompson v Jones
Rory Thompson is having a terrific year for the Suns, Liam Jones will once again take their best defender and be forced to work hard to win the ball. We need him to keep presenting and crashing packs to bring our smalls into the game



Where the game will be won and lost

Half-Forward Line- The Dogs have made an artform of winning the hitouts, winning the clearances, and winning the contested ball, yet getting killed on the scoreboard. How may you ask? By failing to hit a target going forward. We must be clean with our disposal and our forwards must find space and present.

Spread - If the ball is turned over at our half-forward line, we must pressure the ball carrier and his options to win it back. We need to start trusting our players to win the ball instead of swarming the contest unnecessarily and having no options to kick to and no-one defending.

Gary Ablett - There is no doubt Gary can win a game off his own boot, we must limit his impact if we are to take home the 4 points. Simple as that.



Verdict

The Dogs will be desperate for a win and I expect them to come out hard. The patches of good footy we saw against Brisbane, for the last 3 quarters against Freo, in the last quarter against Geelong and for the first 2.5 quarters last week against North Melbourne might be enough to get us the win against lesser opposition.

Western Bulldogs by 25 points

bornadog
14-05-2013, 10:55 PM
Thanks Gogriff, nicely done preview.

Can you check your stats, are GC better than us in contested possessions? I haven't checked the others but are they the right way round?

SonofScray
14-05-2013, 11:05 PM
This is a big game for my sense of belief in the coach's system and my general optimism for the future. The feedback after a loss often points to discrepancies in physical maturity and experience between the teams.

On face value you'd have GC and FFC in a similar bucket for list maturity and the like so we should expect to see a Bulldog side which is "hard to play against," will "crack in for long periods of the game," and "score off the back of winning contested ball." In no way do I wish to sound like a smart alec but these are the circumstances which we have been promised to see these things happen.

Ideally Jones hits the scoreboard again, we get good value from a medium fwd and the midfield/HBF chip in as well. So long as the scores get on the board I think the result will favour us but it hasn't been a great strength to date and we are a bit susceptible to given up big scores quickly and without any visible urgency or ability to stem the flow.

boydogs
15-05-2013, 12:10 AM
Thanks Gogriff, nicely done preview.

Can you check your stats, are GC better than us in contested possessions? I haven't checked the others but are they the right way round?

Confirmed. GC are 3rd in the league for contested possessions, we are 5th.

Go to http://www.afl.com.au/stats, select Advanced Options, untick something and tick contested possessions.

LostDoggy
15-05-2013, 06:44 AM
Confirmed. GC are 3rd in the league for contested possessions, we are 5th.

Go to http://www.afl.com.au/stats, select Advanced Options, untick something and tick contested possessions.

Read an article from AFL that we are 4th GC is 3rd. Regardless, with our few extra experienced players we should win this. We also need to win so we don't look as under developed as Melbourne. We are theoretically at about the same development level as GC, but as we still have experience in our list we should win.

Ghost Dog
15-05-2013, 07:25 AM
Good Write up
While our fitness and experence may give us the edge, they understand the conditions better and may be a more skillful side. Hard to play up there.
How honest is our group? Are they going to show the Suns the respect they deserve?
They outclass us. Home turf. If we have any passengers, we're going to get sizzled by the suns.

Blokes like Griffen and Cooney have to earn their pay - this is the sort of game where they can get the space they need.
Have to have our top shelf come out firing to cancel the effect of Ablett.

Sedat
15-05-2013, 09:22 AM
This is a big game for my sense of belief in the coach's system and my general optimism for the future. The feedback after a loss often points to discrepancies in physical maturity and experience between the teams.

On face value you'd have GC and FFC in a similar bucket for list maturity and the like so we should expect to see a Bulldog side which is "hard to play against," will "crack in for long periods of the game," and "score off the back of winning contested ball." In no way do I wish to sound like a smart alec but these are the circumstances which we have been promised to see these things happen.
I agree. Against a similarly inexperienced and developing team we should expect to win and win comfortably. They have players that need attention put into them but surely we have many more that will be difficult match-ups for GC. The likes of Griffen, Murphy, Libba, Jones, Coons and even Gia should be looking at this match as a chance to dictate the contest. It is alarming to see an acceptance of losing this week 5 days prior to the game actually being played. What next? Hang our hats on beating GWS and Melbourne and draw the line there?

IMO, to validate the coaches mantra and methodology we simply need to win games like this against opponents at a similar level of inexperience, end of.

Greystache
15-05-2013, 09:23 AM
Great job gogriff.

The statistics on style of play are interesting, the perception is Gold Coast are a team of skinny kids that play an outside uncontested style, but their clearance and CP stats argue they're not. It will be interesting to see how it plays out, I think we can and should win, but GC has some dangerous players we need to keep in check.

LostDoggy
15-05-2013, 10:07 AM
Lucky for me I have Monday off work, so in the case we do lose I won't cop it at work for at least one day.

LostDoggy
15-05-2013, 10:12 AM
My key match up for this game: Ablett Vs Lower and Picken. Around ten minutes each, the whole game, rotating positions.

Lower and Picken to both annoy the hell out of him and not go more than half a meter from his side.

Sounds simple and not revolutionary, but if they can shut him down to 20 possessions and get him frustrated we'll win.

One interesting move I wouldn’t mind seeing is JJ on Harbrow. To learn and to counter his defensive run. Harbrow will get away from most others, but he'll struggle with JJ and if he can pressure him with every kick then that's (including above) two of their major ball users nullified for not much sacrifice from our team.

LostDoggy
15-05-2013, 10:48 AM
Picken must go to Bennell. He's very dangerous and clearly there second best player. Doesn't cope well with a tag.

Ablett is just a beast and he will rack up 35+ touches. Lower can go to him and the stoppages but he will need help from the whole team on the outside.

comrade
15-05-2013, 04:02 PM
Happy to take a piece of the $2.50 on offer for the Doggies this week. I think we'll win this reasonably comfortably, especially if Cooney, Griff and Boyd play well.

wimberga
15-05-2013, 06:15 PM
Happy to take a piece of the $2.50 on offer for the Doggies this week. I think we'll win this reasonably comfortably, especially if Cooney, Griff and Boyd play well.

Agree, IMO we should definitely not be this long and this is purely a mis-pricing. If GC had played anyone but Melbourne last week and the end margin of our game reflected the full 4 quarters and not just the last, we should be closer to even money.

boydogs
15-05-2013, 06:55 PM
Read an article from AFL that we are 4th GC is 3rd.

Was that from last week?

bornadog
15-05-2013, 10:56 PM
Confirmed. GC are 3rd in the league for contested possessions, we are 5th.

Go to http://www.afl.com.au/stats, select Advanced Options, untick something and tick contested possessions.

Thanks, yes I know how to do, I was just surprised, and I must admit didn't check.

We are second in Centre Clearances and they are 16, so we should be able to captilise on that. However, at stoppages, they are second and we are 7th. I guess Ablett wins alot of these.

Ghost Dog
15-05-2013, 11:09 PM
Gold coast are going to be the springboard for the rest of the season.
Let's give a beating for a change. Lord knows we've learned how to take one.

Don't buy all the crap in Theage about us being as bad as Melbourne. Stat man rubbish.
Anyone who actually goes to the footy and watches the teams knows we have some good players and can kick a decent scoreline.
That in itself is a victory - many were wondering where our goals were going to come from.
Discovered them in unlikely hands - Clay Smith, Markovic etc.

boydogs
16-05-2013, 02:33 AM
Thanks, yes I know how to do, I was just surprised, and I must admit didn't check.

We are second in Centre Clearances and they are 16, so we should be able to captilise on that. However, at stoppages, they are second and we are 7th. I guess Ablett wins alot of these.

I wouldn't pay too much attention to the stats, as Gold Coast have had an easier draw than us. They lost to Brisbane who we beat, and beat St Kilda, Melbourne and GWS, none of which we have played.

You can see their strengths and weaknesses, but I would suggest their numbers are inflated across the board. Likewise, ours are deflated from the games without Murphy, Griffen and Gia who are back now.

Our best is a class above the Gold Coast, it's all about the B Mac-ism of doing it for longer. The Perth trip and 6 day break is behind us, and I think they will be up for a big effort this week to get a win on the board.

Go_Dogs
16-05-2013, 06:55 AM
Nice work on the preview gogriff, cheers.

DragzLS1
16-05-2013, 03:53 PM
We will win this game! Mark my words! DOnt even go into this game expected to lose we need to hit them hard and show them what contested ball is really all about! Jones needs ot show them how to fly and Cooney needs to show ablett hes got nothing on himm even with a banged up knee ;)

Maddog37
16-05-2013, 06:40 PM
Something in maccas message resonates with me at ths point. I get the feeling the players are getting sick of losing and will take it on some poor team soon. Hopefully it is the GC.

Ghost Dog
16-05-2013, 07:29 PM
I wouldn't pay too much attention to the stats, as Gold Coast have had an easier draw than us. They lost to Brisbane who we beat, and beat St Kilda, Melbourne and GWS, none of which we have played.

You can see their strengths and weaknesses, but I would suggest their numbers are inflated across the board. Likewise, ours are deflated from the games without Murphy, Griffen and Gia who are back now.

Our best is a class above the Gold Coast, it's all about the B Mac-ism of doing it for longer. The Perth trip and 6 day break is behind us, and I think they will be up for a big effort this week to get a win on the board.

Good game to win back that 20 bucks I lost on the dogs a few weeks ago...

DragzLS1
17-05-2013, 02:33 PM
Good game to win back that 20 bucks I lost on the dogs a few weeks ago...


Get on at over 15.5 @ $3.75. We have been rubbish playing away this season but have nearly a full strength side and should win by 6 goals imo.

Ill be outlaying a bit on that bet

LostDoggy
17-05-2013, 07:53 PM
Get on at over 15.5 @ $3.75. We have been rubbish playing away this season but have nearly a full strength side and should win by 6 goals imo.

Ill be outlaying a bit on that bet

$4.20 with Sportsbet