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View Full Version : Match Preview - Round 12 - Collingwood vs. Western Bulldogs - Etihad Stadium



The Underdog
12-06-2013, 10:28 PM
WHERE AND WHEN: Etihad Stadium, Sunday June 16, 4.40pm

TEAMS:
COLLINGWOOD v WESTERN BULLDOGS

Collingwood
B: Nathan Brown, Ben Reid, Heritier O'Brien
HB: Heath Shaw, Nick Maxwell, Marley Williams
C: Steele Sidebottom, Brent Macaffer, Luke Ball
HF: Jamie Elliott, Quinten Lynch, Dane Swan
F: Ben Kennedy, Travis Cloke, Josh Thomas
Foll: Darren Jolly, Scott Pendlebury, Jarryd Blair
Int (from): Kyle Martin, Ben Sinclair, Paul Seedsman, Sam Dwyer
Emer: T.Broomhead, Alan Didak, Adam Oxley
In: S.Dwyer, J.Elliott
Out: A. Didak, A. Oxley

Western Bulldogs
B: Brett Goodes, Jordan Roughead, Michael Talia
HB: Jason Johannisen, Dale Morris, Dylan Addison
C: Adam Cooney, Matthew Boyd, Jack Macrae
HF: Robert Murphy, Liam Jones, Ryan Griffen
F: Daniel Giansiracusa, Jake Stringer, Luke Dahlhaus
Foll: Will Minson, Tom Liberatore, Nick Lower
Int (from): Lukas Markovic, Liam Picken, Koby Stevens, Clay Smith
Emer: Tom Campbell, Mitch Wallis, Nathan Hrovat

In: M.Boyd, A.Cooney, L.Markovic,
Out: T.Williams (shoulder), M. Wallis, N. Hrovat,

LAST FIVE TIMES
R6, 2012: Collingwood 15.8 (98) d Western Bulldogs 11.11 (77) at Etihad Stadium
R6, 2011: Collingwood 15.15 (105) d Western Bulldogs 8.9 (57) at the MCG
1QF, 2010: Collingwood 17.22 (124) d Western Bulldogs 8.14 (62) at the MCG
R11, 2010: Collingwood 17.11 (113) d Western Bulldogs 16.7 (103) at Etihad Stadium
R1, 2010: Collingwood 19.15 (129) d Western Bulldogs 13.15 (93) at Etihad Stadium
(Sad isn’t it?)

KEY STATS:
All stats are averages per game


Stats Collingwood
Disposals 373.1
Clearances 35.2
1% 43.2
Contested possessions 140.2
Uncontested Possessions 229.7
Inside 50’s 55.2
Rebound 50’s 33.9
Marks inside 50 13.9
Effective Disposals 72.2
Points For 95.73
Points against 90.64
Tackles 62.6
Frees For 18.0
Frees Against 17.3


Stats Bulldogs
Disposals 348.9
Clearances 40.3
1% 46.9
Contested possessions 150.2
Uncontested Possessions 197.4
Inside 50’s 47.3
Rebound 50’s 37.8
Marks inside 50 7.7
Effective Disposals 69.2
Points For 78.9
Points against 102.7
Tackles 65.6
Frees For 21.3
Frees Against 21.4

Stats sourced from afl.com.au


FORM:
Collingwood: The Pies come off predictably convincing wins against Brisbane & Melbourne which are probably slightly more impressive for the amount of younger players being injected into the side, mainly through necessity. These followed a couple of disappointing losses to the Swans and Dockers which were sandwiched around their most impressive win of the season, a 6 point defeat of Geelong at the MCG. Missing key players like Dale Thomas, Dayne Beams, Ben Johnson and Alan Toovey hasn’t helped. Seem to have dropped off from the top tier of teams at the moment although they still have serious quality through all lines.

Western Bulldogs: Two game win streak you say? What has impressed me most in the last 2 games has been the ability to start hanging in, in games, while the other team has momentum. The 2nd half of the 2nd quarter against St.Kilda would have been where a team blew us away prior, but hanging in there kept us close enough to have a chance in the 2nd half. To be fair, Port Adelaide let us off the hook in the first half in Darwin but the fortitude the team showed, when essentially a man down in the 2nd half , was very impressive. Our skill level is still appalling at times and we’re worst in the league for effective disposal. This week should see the return of Boyd & Cooney, while Tory Dickson should be available to make a return for Williamstown. The somewhat predictable loss of Tom Williams has re-opened the gap for a tall forward/2nd ruck which with the injuries to Cordy & Roberts probably leaves a return open for Lucas Markovic. Koby Stevens should be available to play after a fairly heroic past 2 weeks.

Match-ups (Some likely, some, not so much):

Lower vs. Pendlebury: The conundrum every time against Collingwood, to tag Swan or Pendlebury? Swan beats you with constant movement and accumulation. Pendlebury beats you with quality finishing. Neither are super fast so Lower isn’t a terrible match for either. I’d start Lower on Pendlebury and leave Boyd to go head to head with Swan. If it’s not working you could go the other way but restricting Pendlebury’s capacity to deliver is crucial.
Griffen vs. Ball: Ball seems to be taking the run with roles since his return, although I don’t see the match-up with Griff as a great one for him. Griff has the pace and strength to make things hard for Ball, although Ball can certainly make a nuisance of himself winning his own ball and being a part of Collingwood’s forward movement.
Roughhead vs. Cloke / Talia vs. Lynch: With Tom Young out for a few more, Talia stays in, after his impressive performance in Darwin. Morris probably starts on one of the smaller forwards unless the Pies bring back Witts or Hudson and leave Lynch forward. You’d give the advantage to the Pies here but I like the options we have to swap blokes around if someone is getting soundly beaten. Morris is also an option for Jamie Elliott if he gives Picken the run around. Pretty glad we’re unlikely to see Krakouer out there. Regardless, supply will need to be restricted otherwise we could be in trouble.
Smith vs. Shaw: Collingwood have traditionally killed us exiting our 50 and Shaw and O’Brien are the guys who have cut us up the worst. I like Clay Smith to start with on Shaw, as he can provide physical pressure and will work hard both ways. Again Shaw isn’t super-fast so won’t burn Smith off too easily, although Shaw probably has it over Smith in the air. Probably leaves Dahlhaus or Murphy as the best option for Harry O, although Collingwood will clearly try to get match-ups that work for them (yes I mean Gia). Addison to Shaw could also be on the cards if he is selected.

Result: I’m not confident at the best of times but the Pies are a top 8 team and we’re pretty solidly bottom 5 (or worse). They’ve got too much class and run and their tall defenders Reid and Brown look far too strong for our tall forwards, whoever they may be. On the other hand we still have trouble scoring and turn the ball over like we were giving away presents to sick kids. Still these aren’t your Mick Malthouse Magpies anymore, so we should be able to hang in there if we can continue our effort of recent weeks.
Collingwood by 34 points

boydogs
12-06-2013, 10:40 PM
Collingwood by 34 points

That would be a good result I think.

The Underdog
12-06-2013, 10:53 PM
That would be a good result I think.

Trying to be optimistic:)

The Bulldogs Bite
12-06-2013, 11:47 PM
Good review.

The stats are interesting. We are ahead on clearances, 1%ers, contested possessions and tackles. These are key indicators, it's a good sign we are competing well in these areas. Really surprisingly, we're also ahead of Collingwood on rebound 50s.

The stats suggest what we already know. Our outside spread is poor, as evidenced by our uncontested possessions, our use of the ball is average which shows we aren't taking advantage of the stats above, and obviously our forward half is struggling.

The challenge is to improve in the areas we are weak in, which will obviously include new personnel in the next 1-3 years, but also structures and improving our skill level. One would think that if we can do this and still maintain good numbers in the statistics above, we'll be in good shape.

In terms of this game, I think we can be competitive, although Collingwood has beaten up on the lower sides whilst struggling against the better ones. It's a good test, we should be confident.

Remi Moses
12-06-2013, 11:51 PM
I think we're a sneaky chance in this.
I reckon they'll get us by 15 PTs.

LostDoggy
12-06-2013, 11:56 PM
Working in a supermarket I run into some people who I regularly talk to. I ran into one person tonight who is a bulldogs supporter and we made general conversation about this Sunday's game. He believes that there are will be about 7 omissions from the Pies team due to some sort of rotation policy that the pies are trying out. Does anyone know about it, and if it has any truth to it?

The Underdog
13-06-2013, 06:52 AM
Working in a supermarket I run into some people who I regularly talk to. I ran into one person tonight who is a bulldogs supporter and we made general conversation about this Sunday's game. He believes that there are will be about 7 omissions from the Pies team due to some sort of rotation policy that the pies are trying out. Does anyone know about it, and if it has any truth to it?

With their injury list & unavailable players I can't see how they could rotate that many. Would be to our benefit.

Go_Dogs
13-06-2013, 08:20 AM
Great work Underdog.

Shapes as an interesting game for mine. As you say, Collingwood aren't quite at their best at the moment although should still have enough talent to account for us. I caught the second half of their game against Melbourne and the pressure they applied to Melbourne when Melbourne had possession was fierce. If they do the same against us, I fear we'll turn the ball over too often and they'll slaughter us on the rebound. We need to apply the same intense pressure when they have possession and find ways to try and maintain possession and slow the game down when we need to.

We also need to be mindful in our D50 of not allowing them the little 20-30m kicks they love to leading players. They have a great ability to spot up easy marks one out in their F50 so our mids will need to work especially hard to push back into space and not allow them easy opportunities.

LostDoggy
13-06-2013, 09:45 AM
Whilst most would find it easy to tip the winner, I reckon it's the hardest game of the round to predict. Could go either way.

whythelongface
13-06-2013, 10:35 AM
Great write up Underdog.

I think that DFA will stay in the team as he adds hardness around the forward line and he showed against the Saints that he is definitely another attacking option. It will be interesting to see when Dickson is fit if they play both him and Dickson as to me they play similar roles.

Markovich looks like the man to come in and play FF.

Whilst Talia appears as the obvious match up on Lynch do you think he can stay with him as Lynch seems to play a fair bit up the ground? Would Morris be better suited on Lynch? Maybe Talia on Cloke and Roughie is the swing player, depending on how the game goes, who may play part of the game at FF and part of the game at FB.

We are a definite chance although I think the Pies will win.

DragzLS1
13-06-2013, 12:20 PM
Really looking forward to this 1!

If you notice we always get exposed at the MCG, but Etihad games are generally closer. I am tipping a closer game this season with the pies injury list and our competitive game style that allows us to hang in games.

We forgot 1 thing though. Jolly broke even against Jamar last week, and Jamar is by no means an elite ruckman. If Jolly plays (they say he is sore and may be rested) Minson will eat him for breakfast on his current form. If they play Huddo or Witts then it is probably even easier. We will win the clearances and the only reason we have a chance of winning this game or even staying competitive is because of Minson giving us first use. Need to really make it count going forward though.

We are in with a chance and I am predicting a 14 point win to the pies. I am hoping we nail a 1 point win coming from behind though.. Ohh yeah!

Ghost Dog
13-06-2013, 01:43 PM
In 2005, North Melbourne were second on the ladder only be percentage. Collingwood were second or third from the floor. The pies took it right to North, and Laidley's troops had to pull out all stops to defeat the filth by a goal. Ignore the ladder, take the game on!

Eastdog
13-06-2013, 01:48 PM
Great preview The Underdog. Unfortunately I wont be able to go as im currently busy with Uni but will be going next week once Uni stuff dies down against the Tigers. This match will be more of a challenge than our last 2 but if we can show that competitiveness then I reckon we can give the Pies a run for their money. We need to make sure we make the most of our opportunities going forward and get the rewards because if we don't it will hurt us. Our skill level needs to be a lot better than it is.

Bulldog Joe
13-06-2013, 03:42 PM
I think we're a sneaky chance in this.
I reckon they'll get us by 15 PTs.

I also think we are a sneaky chance.

Expect Macaffer to have first crack at Griff.

Hoping Lower is sent to Pendles.

Minson to dominate the ruck and us to win the clearances. What we do with it from there will decide the game.

Maddog37
13-06-2013, 04:07 PM
If we can put a score on the board early we will be a chance. Once they get a lead and can run forward of the ball we will be toast.

Eastdog
13-06-2013, 04:23 PM
If we can put a score on the board early we will be a chance. Once they get a lead and can run forward of the ball we will be toast.

We need to get on top in the midfield and get good delivery to our forwards. If they put pressure on us like they did against Geelong then will be in for a tough afternoon.

Nuggety Back Pocket
13-06-2013, 06:50 PM
Swan, Pendlebury and Shaw have been most damaging against us in recent years and it will take a supreme effort to curb their high output in ball winning. The return of Boyd and Cooney will add more depth in the mid field and help reduce the pressure on Griffen and Liberatore. Minson's ability to win the rucking contests against Jolly could well be the difference in the final result. The Collingwood defence has proved vulnerable this year and whether our attack is good enough to match and get on top of the Pies defence is the big question mark. Both Jones and Stringer need to lift. This will be a lot tougher than the Saints and Port but a win would not surprise.

boydogs
13-06-2013, 09:15 PM
Working in a supermarket I run into some people who I regularly talk to. I ran into one person tonight who is a bulldogs supporter and we made general conversation about this Sunday's game. He believes that there are will be about 7 omissions from the Pies team due to some sort of rotation policy that the pies are trying out. Does anyone know about it, and if it has any truth to it?

0 outs, strike him off your source list! :p

F'scary
13-06-2013, 09:31 PM
Excellent: Stringer at FF.

The price of real estate in our goal square will be going up.

BornInDroopSt'54
13-06-2013, 10:41 PM
Excellent: Stringer at FF.

The price of real estate in our goal square will be going up.

Love your work.

Remi Moses
13-06-2013, 10:52 PM
I also think we are a sneaky chance.

Expect Macaffer to have first crack at Griff.

Hoping Lower is sent to Pendles.

Minson to dominate the ruck and us to win the clearances. What we do with it from there will decide the game.

We're 6 bucks:eek:
Might have a nibble at that!!

Ghost Dog
13-06-2013, 11:26 PM
Cursed I didn't lay a bet on the Port game.

DragzLS1
13-06-2013, 11:35 PM
I did @ $4.75 ;)

ALread got us at the line of +39.5 but will get something on us for this Sunday! With our seniors in firing after a good rest I'm confident of a chance for an upset. Pies have been found out so hopefully we can get an early lead.

Dogs

craigsahibee
14-06-2013, 08:47 AM
We're 6 bucks:eek:
Might have a nibble at that!!

Got 7's from Samuel L Jackson.

I'm considering going this weekend. Any objections from you guys based on my attendance / win-loss record this year?

I'll be looking out for you Twodogs.

Remi Moses
14-06-2013, 11:58 PM
The big worry I have is we resort to that bombing from our back 50, O'Brien, Shaw, Maxwell will have a field day.

Remi Moses
15-06-2013, 12:01 AM
Bit surprised Didak's been dropped. Thought he played his best game last week!
( admittedly against Melb)

The Underdog
15-06-2013, 06:27 AM
Bit surprised Didak's been dropped. Thought he played his best game last week!
( admittedly against Melb)

Yeah, same. Thought he looked good last week. Not disappointed about that. Elliott worries me though, can definitely hurt us.

DragzLS1
16-06-2013, 12:50 PM
Having a good feeling today think we will come out firing!

bornadog
16-06-2013, 01:26 PM
Yeah, same. Thought he looked good last week. Not disappointed about that. Elliott worries me though, can definitely hurt us.

Does JJ go to Elliott?

Eastdog
16-06-2013, 01:44 PM
Having a good feeling today think we will come out firing!

Need to make sure we are switched on from the get go.

The Underdog
16-06-2013, 03:48 PM
Does JJ go to Elliott?

Picken seems to be given the hard shut down roles on the opposition's most dangerous small forward, so I wouldn't be surprised if he goes to him. Morris or JJ also chances.

The Underdog
16-06-2013, 08:02 PM
Collingwood by 34 points

Well I may not have got much right but I nailed the result