Match Preview - Round 14 - Western Bulldogs vs Melbourne

[G-Mo77]

Match Preview - Round 14 - Western Bulldogs vs Melbourne

Where & When:

MCG

Saturday, 29nd June

7.40 pm

Weather Forecast: 6 - 16 possible showers in the evening.

Official Preview: http://www.afl.com.au/match-centre/2013/14/melb-v-wb


Recent Scorecards:

http://img20.imageshack.us/img20/747/b2w0.jpg (http://img20.imageshack.us/i/b2w0.jpg/)

http://img542.imageshack.us/img542/3104/q7bw.jpg (http://img542.imageshack.us/i/q7bw.jpg/)

http://img703.imageshack.us/img703/5701/53sf.jpg (http://img703.imageshack.us/i/53sf.jpg/)


Last 5 Results (Oldest to Newest):

Bulldogs - LWWLL
Demons - LLLLL


Key Statistical Indicators:

Disposal Efficiency

Bulldogs Rank: #12 (70.4)

Demons Rank : #10 (70.9)

Contested Possessions

Bulldogs Rank: #6

Demons Rank: #18

Uncontested Possessions

Bulldogs Rank: #10

Demons Rank: #18

Clearances

Bulldogs Rank: #3

Demons Rank: #17

Marks Inside 50

Bulldogs Rank: #16

Demons Rank: #17

Inside 50s

Bulldogs Rank: #16

Demons Rank: #18

Tackles

Bulldogs Rank: #5

Richmond Rank: #16


Possible Changes:

In: Wallis, Dickson, Cordy, Howard

Out: Goodes, Markovic, Hrovat, Lower


Lineup:

Will be added when announced


Where the game will be one and lost:

Midfield is where it will be won. The Dee's ruck stocks are low. Jamar is out for at least another 4 weeks and Spencer has been hit with a 3 match ban. Gawn should come in with Fitzpatrick to back up. In short Minson should dominate in the rucking duels and give our mids first use of the ball at the stoppages and I think there will be a lot of them. Griffen has been unstoppable and I expect that to continue Saturday, McKenzie will be back to try and contain him but I think we have enough winners at the stoppages to get first use of ball. Our ball use has got to be much better though.


The key assignments:

Griffen vs McKenzie
McKenzie was out last week but I expect him to be rushed into the team for this matchup. Griffen is white hot right now and needs to be slowed down for Melbourne to be a chance.

Picken/Lower vs Sylvia
I don't expect us to take both Picken and Lower into the game Saturday night. It might be a bit condescending but I don't think it's needed. The only one who I would focus on before the game starts is Sylvia.

Frawley/McDonald vs Jones/Stringer
Not sure who'll stand who. I'm guessing McDonald to go with Jones after a good effort against Riewoldt last week and Frawley (assuming he is back) to go with Stringer. Pederson and Dunn also played back last week and could stand in to help free up Frawley. Neither of those players are guaranteed to hold their spots though.

Minson Vs Gawn/Fitzpatrick
Gawn should be first ruck and Fitzpatrick to help out. Minson should not have any issue with either. IMO Will has shown some signs of fatigue in his last 2 games

Watts/Dawes vs Roughead/Morris
From all reports Melbourne's star recruit looked like he was still injured so he may not even take his place. Watts will play forward this week and will have a tough time against the Glove

Prediction:
I'm always a little sceptical going into games like this. Melbourne are in a real mess but with a new coach who will bring in new tactics and a lot of unpredictability makes me a little nervous. On paper we should be able to do this comfortably but games aren't won there. Having AA form players like Griffen and Minson make me feel a little more comfortable. I find it hard to see how the Dees can slow down either and think they'll be the class that will get us over the line if it's tight.

There will be lots of stoppages and contested ball which will favour us. Looking through the stats 2 areas that heavily favoured us were Contested Possessions and Clearances. We should have enough to get through Melbourne should they come to play when you break it down.

Dogs by 38 points.

PS: AFL Women's Exhibition game

Don't forget there is a curtainraiser for Saturday's game. If you're going to the game try and get there a little earlier and support the Bulldogs.

[G-Mo77]

Pretty tough preview, a lot of unknowns about Melbourne right now. I'd love some input and may add more to it when teams are selected.

[Go_Dogs]

Great work G-Mo, thanks for that. Contested ball and clearances certainly seems to be the areas we'll hold a strong advantage so we need to ensure we can translate that into more F50 entries and marks inside F50. Would be great to see one of Jones or Stringer kick a small bag on Saturday night.

Like you say, on paper it's a game we should win comfortably but it's not going to be a walk over. We need to come to play and hopefully we can exert our dominance from the first bounce and make it a horrid night for Dees fans.

[Hotdog60]

I think we will win but I think I would also like for it to be close. The reason being I don't want us to endorse the AFL's gift PP by giving Melb. a flogging.

[Doc26]

Thanks G-Mo for your effort. Looking at all the key statistical indicators really have Melbourne in terrible shape and bottom of the barrel. We still need to bring intensity and a willingness to apply pressure to them to create our opportunities. I always worry about these type of games.

[G-Mo77]

Thanks G-Mo for your effort. Looking at all the key statistical indicators really have Melbourne in terrible shape and bottom of the barrel. We still need to bring intensity and a willingness to apply pressure to them to create our opportunities. I always worry about these type of games.

It's pretty awful. Here are some of the key stats for Melbourne

Ranked 18th in Kicks Per Game
Ranked 18th in Handballs Per Game
Ranked 18th in Disposals Per Game
Ranked 18th in Points Per Game
Ranked 16th in Tackles Per Game
Ranked 18th in Inside 50s Per Game
Ranked 17th in Marks Inside 50 Per Game
Ranked 18th in Goal Assists Per Game
Ranked 17th in Clearances Per Game
Ranked 18th in Contested Possessions Per Game
Ranked 18th in Uncontested Possessions Per Game

[bornadog]

It's pretty awful. Here are some of the key stats for Melbourne

Ranked 18th in Kicks Per Game
Ranked 18th in Handballs Per Game
Ranked 18th in Disposals Per Game
Ranked 18th in Points Per Game
Ranked 16th in Tackles Per Game
Ranked 18th in Inside 50s Per Game
Ranked 17th in Marks Inside 50 Per Game
Ranked 18th in Goal Assists Per Game
Ranked 17th in Clearances Per Game
Ranked 18th in Contested Possessions Per Game
Ranked 18th in Uncontested Possessions Per Game

Thanks for a great review. I know I shouldn't be, but I am still worried about this game, despite those stats.

[Dry Rot]

Great review.

Craig is coaching for his career, and would fancy a chance. Could he try something different and surprise us?

[Remi Moses]

Craig won't be coaching Melbourne next season .

[Remi Moses]

Thanks for a great review. I know I shouldn't be, but I am still worried about this game, despite those stats.

This week and next are danger games.
You think GWS are going to get someone along the way.
They've showed patches but being young they can't sustain it.
Gold Coast improved significantly in the back end of last season.

[Ghost Dog]

GWS and Melbourne will have this game circled as very winnable.

[Dry Rot]

GWS and Melbourne will have this game circled as very winnable.

Yep, agree with this. Have they rested any players for this game?

[Greystache]

Great job G-Mo, looking at the two teams we do some things quite well while we struggle still in other areas, whereas Melbourne are terrible in nearly every area of the game. I'm sure they'll be up for this one but they just don't have the skill to win in my opinion.

[LostDoggy]

I think Melbourne under Craig are a threat. He has the footy brain for sure, didn't take Adelaide to top two in consecutive years without some coaching ability.
He did strike as a coach who likes to build a long term gameplan (similar to macca) rather than a Terry Wallace Match day coach who was very good at pulling off upsets, so would've thought 2 weeks isn't long enough for him to build his gameplan.

Dogs by 4-5 goals

[SlimPickens]

Great preview G-Mo.

Dogs comfortably for mine.

Would like to see Talia get a crack at Dawes. Glove to Watts and Roughy to either Gawn or Fitzpatrick.

Unfortunately wont be there as ill be at the Wallabies game, but looking forward to watching a victory on replay.

[Happy Days]

It's a real reflection on just how awful Melbourne are in that we are not a good side and every indicator seems to suggest that they can't possibly beat us.

I'd be really disappointed if we lose because there is no way we really should.

FWIW I'd play both of Picken and Lower, with Picken going to Davey and Lower going to Jones. I know Davey is pretty terrible now but he still needs to be neutralised totally. Plus it gets Picken into the forward line which still has some credence.

[1eyedog]

It's a real reflection on just how awful Melbourne are in that we are not a good side and every indicator seems to suggest that they can't possibly beat us.

I'd be really disappointed if we lose because there is no way we really should.

FWIW I'd play both of Picken and Lower, with Picken going to Davey and Lower going to Jones. I know Davey is pretty terrible now but he still needs to be neutralised totally. Plus it gets Picken into the forward line which still has some credence.

Good summary G-Mo, cheers.

Picken in the forward line has no value at all for mine but I'd have him on Davey as he's the type of player who can damage us. I'd leave Jones to his own devices. He's going to get his hands on the ball anyway and his disposal efficiency is/appears terrible. He doesn't really hurt you very much. I wouldn't honour Jones with a tagger at all.

[lemmon]

Good summary G-Mo, cheers.

Picken in the forward line has no value at all for mine but I'd have him on Davey as he's the type of player who can damage us. I'd leave Jones to his own devices. He's going to get his hands on the ball anyway and his disposal efficiency is/appears terrible. He doesn't really hurt you very much. I wouldn't honour Jones with a tagger at all.

I'm the opposite way, have watched a heap of the Dees and Jones is a gun. Wins important ball in the clinches and will burrow in as an in and under. Take him out and they have nothing left in the stoppage winning department. On the outside as you say he doesn't really hurt you but that's not the type he is anyway. They run shallow so if we stop their best they haven't got much else to take up the slack.

[LostDoggy]

http://www.westernbulldogs.com.au/news/2013-06-27/trio-recalled-to-face-demons

In: Cordy, Wallis, Dickson

Out: Markovic, Goodes, Picken.

[Go_Dogs]

In: Cordy, Wallis, Dickson

Out: Markovic, Goodes, Picken.

Shame to see Picken go out but hard to disagree with the ins.

[bornadog]

http://www.westernbulldogs.com.au/news/2013-06-27/trio-recalled-to-face-demons

In: Cordy, Wallis, Dickson

Out: Markovic, Goodes, Picken.

I thought Picken did well on the weekend, and Lower was beaten badly.

[GVGjr]

Stevens obviously still isn't right and I think Dahlhaus and maybe Hrovat are fortunate

To me dropping Markovic for Cordy and Goodes for Wallis made sense. Dropping Picken is a bit of a surprise to me.

[The Bulldogs Bite]

Picken's outing is another step in the right direction. His decision making and disposal alone is atrocious, nevermind the fact that he simply cannot play as a defender. I called this one a while ago, good to see the coaching panel prepared to make these kinds of decisions.

Whether Lower is better than Picken as a midfield tagger is another debate.

[Go_Dogs]

Stevens obviously still isn't right and I think Dahlhaus and maybe Hrovat are fortunate

To me dropping Markovic for Cordy and Goodes for Wallis made sense. Dropping Picken is a bit of a surprise to me.

Agreed. I think we had to add Dickson as well though as we just need more players who can impact the scoreboard. Like you say, it may have made more sense to drop a like for like, but going in with one tagger against Melbourne seems sound to me.

[Remi Moses]

Good changes
We don't need both Picken and Lower in the line up.

[F'scary]

I guess dropping Picken on milestone game 100 sends a message. If Dahl has another lame game, it will be him next week.

[LostDoggy]

Picken's outing is another step in the right direction. His decision making and disposal alone is atrocious, nevermind the fact that he simply cannot play as a defender. I called this one a while ago, good to see the coaching panel prepared to make these kinds of decisions.

Whether Lower is better than Picken as a midfield tagger is another debate.

I think Lower does the job on the big body inside midfielders, while Picken typically makes quicker outside players look silly. But both have done the job against both types and been beaten by both types at times I guess.

[G-Mo77]

I thought Lower would have been the one dropped not Picken.

I had a feeling Cordy would have been rushed back, IMO Marko has been playing by default and Cordy can give Minson a lot more help and more often.

Great to see Wallis back, took his omission on teh chin and worked his way back into the team. He'll be better for it.

Dickson straight back is no surprise either.

Wrapped that Hrovat didn't get dropped. He had a shocker on Saturday and I'm glad to see he wasn't brought back one week, dropped the next. Good to see the MC showing confidence in the kid.

[LostDoggy]

I thought Lower would have been the one dropped not Picken.

I had a feeling Cordy would have been rushed back, IMO Marko has been playing by default and Cordy can give Minson a lot more help and more often.

Great to see Wallis back, took his omission on teh chin and worked his way back into the team. He'll be better for it.

Dickson straight back is no surprise either.

Wrapped that Hrovat didn't get dropped. He had a shocker on Saturday and I'm glad to see he wasn't brought back one week, dropped the next. Good to see the MC showing confidence in the kid.

I'm with you on all points GMo.

Perhaps Picko has a subtle injury or just needs to clear his head. I prefer Liam but its probably not a change that will decide the game.

I am super excited to see Cordy and Wallis get another chance to prove themselves and continue their development. Both guys will be so important moving forward.

Dickson will add some much needed goal kicking power and smarts in the forward line.

I'm keen to see a younger player with the kick outs too. Not sure that will happen.

[chef]

Good changes.

[LostDoggy]

I'm with you on all points GMo.

Perhaps Picko has a subtle injury or just needs to clear his head. I prefer Liam but its probably not a change that will decide the game.

I am super excited to see Cordy and Wallis get another chance to prove themselves and continue their development. Both guys will be so important moving forward.

Dickson will add some much needed goal kicking power and smarts in the forward line.

I'm keen to see a younger player with the kick outs too. Not sure that will happen.

JJ has been taking a lot of the kickouts when Goodes has been injured or off the ground.
Murph will probably take them when he is back there though.

[Remi Moses]

I guess dropping Picken on milestone game 100 sends a message. If Dahl has another lame game, it will be him next week.

It's about what is best in a club regard.
Milestones like 100 games should be inconsequential.
On the flip side I like farewell games for club stalwarts ( not everyone though)

[Remi Moses]

Stevens obviously still isn't right and I think Dahlhaus and maybe Hrovat are fortunate

To me dropping Markovic for Cordy and Goodes for Wallis made sense. Dropping Picken is a bit of a surprise to me.

Glad they didn't drop Hrovat . Pointless a young player being in and out continually.

[bornadog]

Should Wallis take Goodes spot in the backkine?

[Remi Moses]

We have 14 players with 50 games or less!
Lower has played 54. I know this gets bandied around a fair bit, but that is a bloody young team.

[Remi Moses]

Like a throwback to the 80's
Cordy,Libba, Hunter and Wallis

[bornadog]

Like a throwback to the 80's
Cordy,Libba, Hunter and Wallis

I can't recall four father sons playing for us before. Throw in Talia as grandfather/son as well.

[F'scary]

It's about what is best in a club regard.
Milestones like 100 games should be inconsequential.


Agree. It boosts Macca's stocks with me that he can continue to make hard calls.

[Cyberdoggie]

Great job G-Mo, looking at the two teams we do some things quite well while we struggle still in other areas, whereas Melbourne are terrible in nearly every area of the game. I'm sure they'll be up for this one but they just don't have the skill to win in my opinion.

I Agree, I think we will be too strong in the middle.

I just hope we can get the ball cleanly to our forwards and they convert, if Melbourne are still in the game by 3/4 time then i'll be worried.

[Maddog37]

We need our mids to kick goals.

[comrade]

We need our mids to kick goals.

Same as every week.

We've got more avenues to goal this week with the inclusion of Cordy and Dickson. Cordy might not kick many himself but he should at least help spread the defensive group and open up opportunities for guys like Jones and Stringer.

[1eyedog]

Same as every week.

We've got more avenues to goal this week with the inclusion of Cordy and Dickson. Cordy might not kick many himself but he should at least help spread the defensive group and open up opportunities for guys like Jones and Stringer.

With Cordy in the team Stringer will get the third tall. Should go ok on Saturday young Stringer.

[LostDoggy]

With Cordy in the team Stringer will get the third tall. Should go ok on Saturday young Stringer.

Garland seems a very good match up for stringer, be surprised if they didn't go with that. Frawley on Jones obviously with Cordy getting Tom McDonald. Something like that. Overall they would be pretty happy with that I would think.

[G-Mo77]

Garland seems a very good match up for stringer, be surprised if they didn't go with that. Frawley on Jones obviously with Cordy getting Tom McDonald. Something like that. Overall they would be pretty happy with that I would think.

McDonald will take Jones, I've got no doubt on that. The other backman is a toss up on who they want to free up. On current form you'd think Garland will play Cordy and try to play a little loose.

FWIW I'm predicting these matchups in our forward half.

Jones V McDonald
Stringer V Frawley
Garland V Cordy
Dunn V Murphy
Dickson V Terlich

[Remi Moses]

Just watching Jesse Hogan slot his fifth for casey and young Dominic Barry run around.
Melbourne SHOULD NOT be getting a priority pick!