PDA

View Full Version : Match Preview- Round 16 Western Bulldogs vs Essendon



Greystache
12-07-2013, 03:03 PM
When and Where

Etihad Stadium
Sunday July 14
3:20pm

Ladder Position

Western Bulldogs- 16th

4 wins 10 losses- 76.90%

Essendon- 3rd

11 wins 3 losses- 129.86%


Last 5 games head-to-head

Round 14 2012- WB 8.8.56 lost to Essendon 23.12.150

Round 21 2011- WB lost to Essendon 16.17.113

Round 1 2011- WB 8.10.58 lost to Essendon 16.17.113

Round 22 2010- WB 17.5.107 defeated Essendon 11.12.78

Round 10 2010- WB 14.6.90 lost to Essendon 15.9.99


Selected Teams

WESTERN BULLDOGS
B: Picken Roughead Morris
HB: Cooney Talia Goodes
C: Tutt Liberatore Murphy
HF: Giansiracusa Jones Hrovat
F: Addison Grant Dahlhaus
FOLL: Minson Smith Griffen
I/C FROM: Macrae Dickson Wallis Stevens Cross Hunter Young
IN: Cross Addison Grant Picken Hunter Young
OUT: Cordy Stringer (soreness) Johannisen (shoulder)

ESSENDON
B: Dempsey Fletcher Pears
HB: Baguley Hooker Hibberd
C: Goddard Heppell Melksham
HF: Myers Hurley Stanton
F: Merrett Carlisle Kommer
FOLL: Ryder Zaharakis Winderlich
I/C FROM: Howlett Jetta Colyer Hardingham O’Brien Bellchambers Lovett-Murray
IN: Lovett-Murray Jetta Hardingham O’Brien
OUT: Watson (shoulder)


Recent Form

Western Bulldogs

The Bulldogs recent form has been moderate, winning 2 of their last 5 games with wins against GWS and Port Adelaide, but also very disappointing losses to Melbourne by 3 points and Richmond by 60. It’s a transition year for the Dogs with the make up of the side from week to week including between 12 and 16 players with less than 50 games. Kicking goals has been an issue for the Dogs with only GWS and Melbourne scoring less for the season, but stopping the opposition has proved difficult too with only 3 teams conceding more scores against.

These two issues combined point to why the Bulldogs sit in 16th place.

Essendon

Despite preseason controversy and the constant cloud of a performance enhancing drug investigation hanging over their heads the Bombers have continued to defy the odds. Essendon has won 4 of its 6 games against fellow top 8 sides, and other than a shock loss to Brisbane in round 8, the Bombers have easily accounted for the lower ranked teams.

One thing that has stood out in 2013 is Essendon’s ability to win tight contests and to come from behind late in games to get the win. Despite intense media scrutiny and the calling for the head of James Hird and the resignation of CEO Ian Robson, Essendon seem to have used it all to help galvanise the team.


Key Match Ups

Hurley vs Talia

Hurley is a vastly overrated forward based on his output and recent form suggests he’s better suited to playing in defence, however last time out against the Bulldogs Hurley equalled his career high 5 goals, and is coming off 3 goals last week. Talia has been a sensation in his second season in the AFL culminating in a Rising Star nomination during the week. Talia has blended a strong one-on-one defensive capability with the ability to accumulate large amounts of possession.

Not overly tall nor especially quick, Hurley looks an ideal match up for Talia, and with the likely avalanche of supply he will receive, Talia’s performance will go a long way to keeping the margin down.

Bellchambers/Ryder vs Minson

Bellchambers was outstanding last week kicking 5 goals and taking 10 marks, and it is this ability to hit the scoreboard that has been the big improvement in his game. He has 19 goals for the season and can provide a genuine marking target when pushing forward. Ryder has been effective at times in the ruck but his work around the ground and up forward has been patchy in 2013 averaging only 13 disposals and 4 marks.

Minson has lead the AFL in hitouts in 2013 averaging 42 per game. He has contested more ruck contests than any other ruckman in the competition contesting over 90% of all Bulldog stoppages. Averaging only 2 marks a game and kicking just 3 goals Minson has focussed his game purely to moving from stoppage to stoppage and utilising his strength as a tap ruckman. The Essendon ruck combination has the ability to hurt the Bulldogs on the scoreboard and Minson will have his work cut out for him in reducing their effectiveness.

Hooker/Carlisle vs Jones

Carlisle has had a breakout season as a key defender, he has negated some of the best key forwards while also taking intercept marks. Hooker has excelled this season in sagging of his opponent to take intercept marks, he is currently leading the competition in this area and is a key to Essendon’s rebound out of defence.

Jones has a tough job as the primary target in a battling team, and while at times inconsistent, he has also been able to take some strong contested marks and is second on the Bulldogs goal kicking tally. It’s a tough ask but Jones needs to provide a contest up forward and prevent uncontested marks being taken deep in the Bulldogs forward line.

Griffen vs Goddard

Griffen has been immense in 2013 and is easily the club’s best player. He is relied upon every week to be a match winner and if the B&F was counted today he would win by a record margin. With Essendon missing Brownlow Medalist Jobe Watson and doubts over the fitness of Stanton this midfield head-to-head match up may be a fascinating battle. Griffen could be the key to the Bulldogs causing an upset and Goddard is the most experienced midfield replacement option. Goddard has struggled throughout his career to be the number one midfielder but Essendon need him to step up, he is known for losing his temper when things get tough and I'd like to see some of the Bulldogs players get into him if the Griffen is getting on top.

Where the game will be won and lost

It’s hard to make a case for the Dogs to be competitive in any area of the ground, they are slower and less creative through the midfield, have less established targets in attack and with the loss of young gun JJ they have few option to rebound the ball out of defence and to counter attack. The best hope is realistically a competitive effort across the ground to keep the final margin respectable.


Final verdict

Jobe Watson out helps, but the Bulldogs will be outclassed all over the ground. Essendon by 60+

Ozza
12-07-2013, 03:23 PM
Very good write up GS - albeit a bit depressing looking at all our match up concerns.

One thing is - I don't think Hocking is playing. Unless I'm missing something, I think he is still out - and that is a small win for us - as Griffen should be able to have more influence.

Greystache
12-07-2013, 03:24 PM
Very good write up GS - albeit a bit depressing looking at all our match up concerns.

One thing is - I don't think Hocking is playing. Unless I'm missing something, I think he is still out - and that is a small win for us - as Griffen should be able to have more influence.

Right you are, I put the teams in after I wrote it up. I'll edit it, thanks

bulldogtragic
12-07-2013, 03:33 PM
Good work GS. Only takes a cursory glance at your write up to realise we are outgunned across the board. I just want to see fight and Grant to channel EJ and "stick it right up them".

Ozza
12-07-2013, 03:42 PM
I think its a particularly good point about Jones this week. Essendon are very good in the air down back - so I'm not expecting Jones to take many marks - with Carlisle, Fletcher, Hooker and Pears working against him - but its so important for him to bring the ball to the ground.

Cyberdoggie
12-07-2013, 04:39 PM
Stringer and Cordy out of the forward line and Grant in will be interesting. We will definitely struggle to mark the ball if we deliver it slow and high to Grant and Jones. I can only see us trying to hurt Essendon on the rebound with our quicker forwards using space.

Perhaps we can pull out an Agar surprise? :p

LostDoggy
12-07-2013, 05:09 PM
Emergencies released, Macrae rested, Hunter into the 22.

bornadog
12-07-2013, 05:33 PM
Emergencies released, Macrae rested, Hunter into the 22.

IN
Dylan Addison, Liam Picken, Lachie Hunter, Jarrad Grant

OUT
Jason Johannisen (Shoulder) , Ayce Cordy (Omitted) , Jake Stringer (Soreness) , Jack Macrae (Rested)

G-Mo77
12-07-2013, 07:37 PM
Good write up Greystache


It seems we've gone a little shorter in the forward line. Essendon are a big backline, we could cause them a few headaches.....

LostDoggy
12-07-2013, 07:54 PM
We are certainly quicker up front with Grant, Hunter and even Addison is quite a bit quicker these days.

Nuggety Back Pocket
12-07-2013, 09:31 PM
Thanks Greystache. Less established targets up forward is certainly a major weakness. I am surprised that Young isn't in the team to allow Murphy to play forward. Apart from Gia we do not have a recognized goalkicker and against a strong Essendon defence it is hard to see where the goals are going to come from. The recall of Grant Addison and Hunter and Dickson last week doesn't inspire you to suggest we can kick a winning score. Jones needs to lift if we are to be competitive. The key to our chances will probably be whether Minson Griffen Liberatore and hopefully Cooney can take control in the midfield to provide our forward line with enough opportunities.

jeemak
12-07-2013, 09:47 PM
Great write up 'stache. Haven't been able to get on Woof as much as I'd like recently, and as a result haven't gotten into the previews as much as I'd like. Don't watch a lot of non-Bulldogs games as I used to, so these are great.

I really struggle to see how we can be competitive in any area of the ground, well at least enough for the game to be in doubt anyway.

This week and the next couple will be all about watching out for effort from players on limited chances (Addison and Grant), as well as developing players taking another step forward against a quality opponent.

The Bulldogs Bite
12-07-2013, 10:32 PM
Good changes. Young has been out for too long to come straight back, needs a few weeks at VFL level IMO. Both Stringer and Macrae looked due a rest, so I don't mind that. Glad to see Hunter in and Grant's performance is perhaps the most interesting part of the game for mine.

It could get extremely ugly.

Remi Moses
12-07-2013, 10:41 PM
Look for Carlisle and Hooker to have plenty of intercept marks .
We won't kick more than 8 goals

AOD's by 53 pts

bornadog
12-07-2013, 10:45 PM
Good changes. Young has been out for too long to come straight back, needs a few weeks at VFL level IMO. Both Stringer and Macrae looked due a rest, so I don't mind that. Glad to see Hunter in and Grant's performance is perhaps the most interesting part of the game for mine.

It could get extremely ugly.

Young played one week for Willi and then they had the bi so hard for him to get back into it. Another game tomorrow and hopefully he is back next week.

LostDoggy
13-07-2013, 01:53 AM
Reminder that Hunter kicked 3 goals against a Bombers B team (including some big names) and earned himself his debut not long ago. Looking for a repeat from the youngest fella at the Big Show.
Carve them up Lachie!

DragzLS1
13-07-2013, 02:42 AM
Think we wont be disgraced for the first half but they will pull away late in the 3rd and 4th for a big win. We have a Good young team but the young will eventually give too much space in the 2nd half which will result in us getting punished on the score board

boydogs
13-07-2013, 06:00 PM
Think we wont be disgraced for the first half but they will pull away late in the 3rd and 4th for a big win. We have a Good young team but the young will eventually give too much space in the 2nd half which will result in us getting punished on the score board

That sums up what we were like last year, I hope we get a 4 quarter effort like BMac has said we should expect

Eastdog
13-07-2013, 08:33 PM
That sums up what we were like last year, I hope we get a 4 quarter effort like BMac has said we should expect

I hope we really put in a 4 quarter effort like you said gogriff. Ill be going tomorrow and hope to see a lot of Bulldogs supporters come out for this match against a 'bigger' Victorian club in Essendon.

Go_Dogs
14-07-2013, 08:39 AM
Nice preview GS, cheers.

Not too enthused about this game as the outcome seems predictable. Hopefully we don't get blown away and the guys who've come back in perform.

Ghost Dog
14-07-2013, 09:54 AM
I think its a particularly good point about Jones this week. Essendon are very good in the air down back - so I'm not expecting Jones to take many marks - with Carlisle, Fletcher, Hooker and Pears working against him - but its so important for him to bring the ball to the ground.

I'd like to see us go with a small forward line or do something at least from the coach's box to compete.