View Full Version : Now What for talls?
bulldogtragic
01-10-2013, 12:46 PM
Buddy almost certain to Sydney.
This means Patton is unlikely, as is Boyd being traded.
So there's White, Gumby, Thorp, Brown & Mitchell.
Do we stick with 22 for Stu?
Do we downgrade picks?
I.e. 4 and 22 for 10 & 28 Docherty and then 28 for 33 and Jesse White. 33 used as trade or in ND?
I.e. Bontempelli, Docherty, White and Crameri with first two picks?
Will be another trade period without our key big man!!!
Bloody Sydney and Franklin, just turned trade week on its head.
LostDoggy
01-10-2013, 12:47 PM
Who cares. If Sydney can gain all these KP's from AFL handouts then what's the point?
As the facilities improve and we get on track, the train leaves and we're left behind.
always right
01-10-2013, 12:51 PM
Buddy almost certain to Sydney.
This means Patton is unlikely, as is Boyd being traded.
So there's White, Gumby, Thorp, Brown & Mitchell.
Do we stick with 22 for Stu?
Do we downgrade picks?
I.e. 4 and 22 for 10 & 28 Docherty and then 28 for 33 and Jesse White. 33 used as trade or in ND?
I.e. Bontempelli, Docherty, White and Crameri with first two picks?
Will be another trade period without our key big man!!!
Bloody Sydney and Franklin, just turned trade week on its head.
I keep saying it...we don't necessarily need a key big man if we have a forwardline containing several "third tall" types. I like the idea of us developing a forwardline that is a bit like the forwardline we had pre-Bazza yet a bit taller. And of course there is big Tom in the goal square.
bulldogsthru&thru
01-10-2013, 12:55 PM
Buddy almost certain to Sydney.
This means Patton is unlikely, as is Boyd being traded.
So there's White, Gumby, Thorp, Brown & Mitchell.
Do we stick with 22 for Stu?
Do we downgrade picks?
I.e. 4 and 22 for 10 & 28 Docherty and then 28 for 33 and Jesse White. 33 used as trade or in ND?
I.e. Bontempelli, Docherty, White and Crameri with first two picks?
Will be another trade period without our key big man!!!
Bloody Sydney and Franklin, just turned trade week on its head.
Once again there is really no option. Dont want to go after an 'average' tall. We will have to make do with what we are realistically able to obtain. The AFL has turned this league into the has and has nots. Its fast becoming the premier league. What chance does our club have of landing big names when we are competing in an unlevel playing field. I mean if collingwood feel they are getting screwed then what hope in hell do we have?
ReLoad
01-10-2013, 01:13 PM
I think you need to look at other options, throw in Reid from the swans, given tippett and Buddy, there is no way he is on big money. Get him home where he belongs.
Hawks will get Mumford for sure now.
bulldogtragic
01-10-2013, 01:17 PM
I think you need to look at other options, throw in Reid from the swans, given tippett and Buddy, there is no way he is on big money. Get him home where he belongs.
Hawks will get Mumford for sure now.
I wouldn't chase Reid, he is a Jones clone. We don't want two of them.
azabob
01-10-2013, 01:24 PM
I think you need to look at other options, throw in Reid from the swans, given tippett and Buddy, there is no way he is on big money. Get him home where he belongs.
Hawks will get Mumford for sure now.
But Reid is on good money. He signed a five year deal.
LostDoggy
01-10-2013, 01:29 PM
To be honest I think I best option now is to continue with big Soup in the goalsquare, and with another pre season under his belt learning the forward craft and improvement with our young mids he could have a massive year in 2014.
bulldogtragic
01-10-2013, 01:33 PM
To be honest I think I best option now is to continue with big Soup in the goalsquare, and with another pre season under his belt learning the forward craft and improvement with our young mids he could have a massive year in 2014.
We need another tall. Jones and Cordy had bad years. Campbell showed a bit, but we need another tall IMO. If it's cheap, then Thorp or Brown. Or do we explore cheap manoeuvres for White or someone else. But I hope and expect we won't pay overs for a mid range spud. It's now a cheap option.
LostDoggy
01-10-2013, 01:38 PM
We need another tall. Jones and Cordy had bad years. Campbell showed a bit, but we need another tall IMO. If it's cheap, then Thorp or Brown. Or do we explore cheap manoeuvres for White or someone else. But I hope and expect we won't pay overs for a mid range spud. It's now a cheap option.
That's a good point. Could Shaun McKernan be another option?
bulldogtragic
01-10-2013, 01:43 PM
That's a good point. Could Shaun McKernan be another option?
Could be, I personally don't rate him highly. Maybe a swap for Howard and third round picks. Won't happen, but I just don't see all that much in him. But that's exactly the point, it's a McKernan or White fringe ruck/forward or a state player. If we want another tall, what should we do?
Greystache
01-10-2013, 01:45 PM
If Patton is off the table then I hope we don't chase anyone. Going after guys like White and McKernan with cheap picks is what we've been doing for 20 years and it's never delivered. I don't want some second rate hack just because he's tall, if he's not quality then forget him.
Mofra
01-10-2013, 01:45 PM
I keep saying it...we don't necessarily need a key big man if we have a forwardline containing several "third tall" types.
As much as I hate the term "third tall", I do like this thinking.
Grant is a unique type at AFL level.
Crameri is unique with his combination of strengh and speed
Jake Stringer should be DNA tested - he's probably related to Chuck Norris
Jones can park himself somewhere and rely on his contested marking ability to kick his 1-2 per game as well as provide a contest
There is four players who have decent marking ability and it's doubtful that an opposition defence can adequately cover them all (just see what happened to Freo's 4th defender once Gunstan got off the leash).
Guys like Campbell, Dahl, Hunter, Smith, Addision and resting mids will also press for selection depending on match ups/opposition.
bulldogtragic
01-10-2013, 01:52 PM
If Patton is off the table then I hope we don't chase anyone. Going after guys like White and McKernan with cheap picks is what we've been doing for 20 years and it's never delivered. I don't want some second rate hack just because he's tall, if he's not quality then forget him.
I tend to agree our form guide in pretty underwhelming. What about an outside chance like Thorp, Mitchell or Brown?
G-Mo77
01-10-2013, 01:54 PM
Who cares. If Sydney can gain all these KP's from AFL handouts then what's the point?
As the facilities improve and we get on track, the train leaves and we're left behind.
It's demoralising isn't it.
Greystache
01-10-2013, 02:03 PM
I tend to agree our form guide in pretty underwhelming. What about an outside chance like Thorp, Mitchell or Brown?
Mitchell, Brown, Gumbleton or anyone else equally as mediocre are likely to offer us less than Jones and Campbell. If we want into the market then for once do it properly and put in a decent offer for a gun player, not a token pick for a fringe player that'll just clog up the list.
Thorpe I don't see as a key forward, he might be worth a gamble, but he won't be our next great white KPF failure.
bulldogtragic
01-10-2013, 02:08 PM
Mitchell, Brown, Gumbleton or anyone else equally as mediocre are likely to offer us less than Jones and Campbell. If we want into the market then for once do it properly and put in a decent offer for a gun player, not a token pick for a fringe player that'll just clog up the list.
Thorpe I don't see as a key forward, he might be worth a gamble, but he won't be our next great white KPF failure.
Sorry GS, I meant Ben Brown. I.e. Should we hit the state leagues in lieu of dredging the AFL spud forwards.
Templeton31
01-10-2013, 02:14 PM
I've got 3 words:
"GET SAM REID"
LostDoggy
01-10-2013, 02:14 PM
If Patton is off the table then I hope we don't chase anyone. Going after guys like White and McKernan with cheap picks is what we've been doing for 20 years and it's never delivered. I don't want some second rate hack just because he's tall, if he's not quality then forget him.
Exactly right, my thoughts too!
Eastdog
01-10-2013, 02:14 PM
I reckon that Eddie would be annoyed with Sydney getting Buddy. I just do not understand why they get a bigger salary cap than other clubs. Apparently it's because of the Sydney lifestyle but that to me is a weak reason. Our lifestyle is just as good if not better.
Remi Moses
01-10-2013, 02:18 PM
If Patton is off the table then I hope we don't chase anyone. Going after guys like White and McKernan with cheap picks is what we've been doing for 20 years and it's never delivered. I don't want some second rate hack just because he's tall, if he's not quality then forget him.
This^^^^^.
Third party deals and cost of living allowance, what's the point if having a salary cap?
Twodogs
01-10-2013, 02:28 PM
I keep saying it...we don't necessarily need a key big man if we have a forwardline containing several "third tall" types. I like the idea of us developing a forwardline that is a bit like the forwardline we had pre-Bazza yet a bit taller. And of course there is big Tom in the goal square.
As much as I hate the term "third tall", I do like this thinking.
Grant is a unique type at AFL level.
Crameri is unique with his combination of strengh and speed
Jake Stringer should be DNA tested - he's probably related to Chuck Norris
Jones can park himself somewhere and rely on his contested marking ability to kick his 1-2 per game as well as provide a contest
There is four players who have decent marking ability and it's doubtful that an opposition defence can adequately cover them all (just see what happened to Freo's 4th defender once Gunstan got off the leash).
Guys like Campbell, Dahl, Hunter, Smith, Addision and resting mids will also press for selection depending on match ups/opposition.
Put Hrovat on the list of goal kickers too. The kid has a knack for finding himself with the ball in his hands in the forward line.
The worry with a predominantly smaller forward line is whether it holds up when the going gets really tough and precise ball use becomes more difficult. I think this time around we have a couple of genuine tall prospects with Jones and Campbell (who I think will develop into a very good forward.) Cordy too. Maybe.
LostDoggy
01-10-2013, 02:46 PM
I know its unlikely but wouldn't it be great if somehow Tom Williams could stay on the park and be the extra tall we need.
Mofra
01-10-2013, 03:01 PM
The worry with a predominantly smaller forward line is whether it holds up when the going gets really tough and precise ball use becomes more difficult. I think this time around we have a couple of genuine tall prospects with Jones and Campbell (who I think will develop into a very good forward.) Cordy too. Maybe.
Between Jones (196cm) Stringer (191cm) Crameri (190cm) and Grant (192cm, plays small but has sticky hands) there is enough marking power to upset at least one (possibly two) experienced AFL defenders.
That's before we consider a second gorilla forward (Campbell/Cordy or someone else) and a Dickson or Hunter playing small. Less predictability can be a good thing.
bulldogtragic
01-10-2013, 03:04 PM
Between Jones (196cm) Stringer (191cm) Crameri (190cm) and Grant (192cm, plays small but has sticky hands) there is enough marking power to upset at least one (possibly two) experienced AFL defenders.
That's before we consider a second gorilla forward (Campbell/Cordy or someone else) and a Dickson or Hunter playing small. Less predictability can be a good thing.
But when we start bombing the ball in the dying minutes of a prelim, I'm not so confident that this small forward line will hold up. We need another tall, but it's not this year.
Sedat
01-10-2013, 03:18 PM
Do we have faith that Campbell and, err, Cordy, can develop into the Hale prototype 2nd ruckman/dangerous tall forward? If one of them comes good, then we really don't need another tall forward for the sake of it - I'd much rather add a Crameri to our forward set-up for $450k a season and see him develop into a dangerous high half-forward in the Ryan O'Keefe vein. Of critical importance in this is that one of Campbell and Cordy actually steps up in the 2nd ruck/forward role.
I've been a fierce critic of Cordy for a while now, but after seeing Hale play so well for Hawthorn in a clearly defined role, after he completely spudded it up in his first 5-6 AFL seasons, could Cordy show a similar rate of improvement as his career progresses? I have my doubts, but then again I thought Hale was the biggest potato in the AFL a few years ago.
LostDoggy
01-10-2013, 03:31 PM
Do we have faith that Campbell and, err, Cordy, can develop into the Hale prototype 2nd ruckman/dangerous tall forward? If one of them comes good, then we really don't need another tall forward for the sake of it - I'd much rather add a Crameri to our forward set-up for $450k a season and see him develop into a dangerous high half-forward in the Ryan O'Keefe vein. Of critical importance in this is that one of Campbell and Cordy actually steps up in the 2nd ruck/forward role.
I've been a fierce critic of Cordy for a while now, but after seeing Hale play so well for Hawthorn in a clearly defined role, after he completely spudded it up in his first 5-6 AFL seasons, could Cordy show a similar rate of improvement as his career progresses? I have my doubts, but then again I thought Hale was the biggest potato in the AFL a few years ago.
I don't even have faith Jones will make it. He's played 55 games for 55 goals. All very well for talls to get more time but compare that return to Gunston and you start to feel abit queasy. Yes Gunston has better delivery at Hawthorn but didn't at Adelaide and he still performed. Jones on his third strike this year and we need to plan a what-if-he-doesn't future. Think we need to do at least one of (in my order of preference):
Trade for Jaksch - would be an agile back if Jones makes it anyway
Draft McCarthy - Trust we can develop him on with it
Draft Mitch Harvey - Can play deep FF or CHF - only question is if he can stand up at AFL standard
Draft Ben Brown or Mitch Thorp who both are "maybe they'll make it" options in my opinion.
If Cordy can't deliver this year I'd pay out his contract and offer him a role in our VFL side. Shoulders - just a terrible story he had promise and it sucks.
bulldogtragic
01-10-2013, 03:48 PM
Jackson Paine from Colingwood reminds me a little of Tom Young in terms of the trade week scenario from last year. Tallish, Collingwood, has performed well, but seems a bit back in the pecking order. I'd take him for pick 71 too.
Maddog37
01-10-2013, 03:56 PM
I don't even have faith Jones will make it. He's played 55 games for 55 goals. All very well for talls to get more time but compare that return to Gunston and you start to feel abit queasy. Yes Gunston has better delivery at Hawthorn but didn't at Adelaide and he still performed. Jones on his third strike this year and we need to plan a what-if-he-doesn't future. Think we need to do at least one of (in my order of preference):
Trade for Jaksch - would be an agile back if Jones makes it anyway
Draft McCarthy - Trust we can develop him on with it
Draft Mitch Harvey - Can play deep FF or CHF - only question is if he can stand up at AFL standard
Draft Ben Brown or Mitch Thorp who both are "maybe they'll make it" options in my opinion.
If Cordy can't deliver this year I'd pay out his contract and offer him a role in our VFL side. Shoulders - just a terrible story he had promise and it sucks.
Gunston has never had the number one defender like Jones has.
Mofra
01-10-2013, 04:07 PM
But when we start bombing the ball in the dying minutes of a prelim, I'm not so confident that this small forward line will hold up. We need another tall, but it's not this year.
Simple answer - don't be stupid enough to bomb the ball in the dying minutes of a prelim, and if you do - Jones at 196cm is the target.
Freo's only decent forward in the GF was Pav - he's comparable in height to Stringer/Grant/Crameri/Scharenberg
Mofra
01-10-2013, 04:09 PM
I don't even have faith Jones will make it. He's played 55 games for 55 goals.
Wow, the kid's 22 years old playing as the no 1 forward in a bottom 4 side are you're pulling the pin on him?
Shaysus :eek:
always right
01-10-2013, 04:10 PM
But when we start bombing the ball in the dying minutes of a prelim, I'm not so confident that this small forward line will hold up. We need another tall, but it's not this year.
That's the point....it is not a small forward line. It's a tall(ish) forwardline with agility, pace and marking ability. Much more dangerous when the ball is coming in haphazardly.
always right
01-10-2013, 04:15 PM
Wow, the kid's 22 years old playing as the no 1 forward in a bottom 4 side are you're pulling the pin on him?
Shaysus :eek:
Exactly.....surround him with good forwards and a cohesive structure and see wht he can do. He no longer plays as the main target but one of four or five targets. Imagine all the focus being on Crameri, Grant and Stringer on the lead, with Tom in the square....all of a sudden Jones has the freedom to take those big marks.
LostDoggy
01-10-2013, 04:17 PM
Wow, the kid's 22 years old playing as the no 1 forward in a bottom 4 side are you're pulling the pin on him?
Shaysus :eek:
Nope not pulling the pin; I live in constant hope. Wouldn't you like a backup plan though or are you happy to risk it all on one guy? At best he's been ok. At worst he's been aweful. He's been played as the number 1 forward and I don't think he's upto it. Maybe number 2. But then we still need another option.
whythelongface
01-10-2013, 04:30 PM
Nope not pulling the pin; I live in constant hope. Wouldn't you like a backup plan though or are you happy to risk it all on one guy? At best he's been ok. At worst he's been aweful. He's been played as the number 1 forward and I don't think he's upto it. Maybe number 2. But then we still need another option.
Do we need a number one forward. I would rather have us have 4 or 5 forwards that complement each other. If we get Crameri and then Jones, Grant, Campbell and Stringer continue to develop we will be a hard team to match up on. Throw in the likes of Dahl and Dickson and we start to develop a forward line that has many options rather than just having the one target.
Nuggety Back Pocket
01-10-2013, 04:44 PM
Do we have faith that Campbell and, err, Cordy, can develop into the Hale prototype 2nd ruckman/dangerous tall forward? If one of them comes good, then we really don't need another tall forward for the sake of it - I'd much rather add a Crameri to our forward set-up for $450k a season and see him develop into a dangerous high half-forward in the Ryan O'Keefe vein. Of critical importance in this is that one of Campbell and Cordy actually steps up in the 2nd ruck/forward role.
I've been a fierce critic of Cordy for a while now, but after seeing Hale play so well for Hawthorn in a clearly defined role, after he completely spudded it up in his first 5-6 AFL seasons, could Cordy show a similar rate of improvement as his career progresses? I have my doubts, but then again I thought Hale was the biggest potato in the AFL a few years ago.
Macca has thoughts on both Crameri and Stringer playing in the midfield no doubt inspired by having able bigger bodied players in the action where it counts. Our problem ATM is that Minson and Campbell are similar types with Campbell poised to eventually take over in the ruck. I have doubts on Cordy's future at the WB. We have tried to turn him into a key forward when he lacks mobility. It is hard to compare Hale with Cordy, with Hale now being very much a good established ruckman cum forward at Hawthorn.
bulldogtragic
01-10-2013, 04:53 PM
The list as it is today won't win a premiership, as is. It needs some enhancements. Crameri is a good start, but a genuine KPP is necessary. If it's not this year so be it, but we had a much better forward line late last decade at the same size and every single observer acknowledged we needed a Buddy, Riewoldt, Hawkins, Cloke etc etc.
But that doesn't mean overpaying for a spud, it means I think we need this type of player to complete the package. Get a cheap option like Thorp and wait for this KPP to come our way. Hopefully sooner rather than later.
JohnGentStand
01-10-2013, 05:33 PM
I threw it out there on another thread, but I expect Sam Reid's name may come up in talks now the the Bud has landed in Sydney. It frees up some moolah and he hasn't developed as rapidly as expected....
Is he a worthwhile target?
What would we give ? Pick 4 ?
bulldogtragic
01-10-2013, 05:42 PM
I threw it out there on another thread, but I expect Sam Reid's name may come up in talks now the the Bud has landed in Sydney. It frees up some moolah and he hasn't developed as rapidly as expected....
Is he a worthwhile target?
What would we give ? Pick 4 ?
Please no.
Scorlibo
01-10-2013, 05:43 PM
The list as it is today won't win a premiership, as is. It needs some enhancements. Crameri is a good start, but a genuine KPP is necessary. If it's not this year so be it, but we had a much better forward line late last decade at the same size and every single observer acknowledged we needed a Buddy, Riewoldt, Hawkins, Cloke etc etc.
And then we got Hall and had a worse season than in '09.
Good midfields and back lines win premierships, not key forwards.
Eastdog
01-10-2013, 05:45 PM
And then we got Hall and had a worse season than in '09.
Good midfields and back lines win premierships, not key forwards.
Hall was a good pick up but we got him 1 year too late and we didn't structure well around him. A key target up forward is still very important as well as a strong midfield and strong defence. Pretty much in all areas you got to be good to win the flag.
bulldogtragic
01-10-2013, 05:51 PM
And then we got Hall and had a worse season than in '09.
Good midfields and back lines win premierships, not key forwards.
Doesn't address the key deficiency. We didn't win without Hall either...
Every club should aim to have a talented key tall forward. That's my dream. I think they're important for a whole range of reasons. I'd rather have one than not, so just because it looks like we won't get one I'm not going to say they're not important.
Eastdog
01-10-2013, 05:52 PM
Doesn't address the key deficiency. We didn't win without Hall either...
Every club should aim to have a talented key tall forward. That's my dream. I think they're important for a whole range of reasons. I'd rather have one than not, so just because it looks like we won't get one I'm not going to say they're not important.
Good post BT.
GVGjr
01-10-2013, 07:00 PM
We need to build via the draft. Crameri is our one luxury.
Grant, Campbell, Jones, Stringer and Crameri can do the job. Williams will be back as well.
I'm still confident that Jones can make it.
Lets draft other tall forwards if that is what we believe we need.
The Bulldogs Bite
01-10-2013, 08:49 PM
We need to build via the draft. Crameri is our one luxury.
Grant, Campbell, Jones, Stringer and Crameri can do the job. Williams will be back as well.
I'm still confident that Jones can make it.
Lets draft other tall forwards if that is what we believe we need.
Agreed, although there a few concerns to be had.
Jones is still a long way off being a quality KPF. The deficiencies he had in his first year are still prevalent; he doesn't get enough of the ball/can't do the easy things to stay involved in a game, isn't a reliable disposer of the ball by hand/foot (perhaps improved - still not great) and he isn't a good decision maker - still struggles to read the play at times too.
I am confident Jones can be solid with a good group around him but I don't think he'll reach the heights that some predicted earlier on.
Williams is lucky to be on the list, and although talented, will never play 22 games + finals so I think including him in any plans is pointless.
GVG, who and what type of KPF would you look to draft? Apparently next year's crop is a little better than this year's - would you wait? Would you target a gorilla KF capable of ruck relief or a mobile, leading forward?
F'scary
01-10-2013, 09:38 PM
We need to build via the draft. Crameri is our one luxury.
Grant, Campbell, Jones, Stringer and Crameri can do the job. Williams will be back as well.
I'm still confident that Jones can make it.
Lets draft other tall forwards if that is what we believe we need.
No go a young outside midfielder like that Josh Kelly. As a number of others have pointed out, we now have the tall forward line. Campbell, Williams, Jones, Crameri, Stringer, Grant. You won't even be able to fit them all in at the same time because you need a couple of smalls as well at least. Dahl, Dickson, Gia, Hunter, Higgins, etc. etc. Hmmm, the plethora of smaller forward/mid rotators we have might indicate where we might choose to player swap in trade week - Higgins.
Scorlibo
01-10-2013, 09:47 PM
Doesn't address the key deficiency. We didn't win without Hall either...
Every club should aim to have a talented key tall forward. That's my dream. I think they're important for a whole range of reasons. I'd rather have one than not, so just because it looks like we won't get one I'm not going to say they're not important.
I'd also prefer to have one than not, and I'm certainly not saying they're not important purely because we don't have one. What I am saying is that we can drive ourselves crazy looking for a key forward, just as we have for the last ten years, or we can observe that there's a number of deficiencies in our talent pool and there's no reason to focus on fixing the key forward issue before any of the others.
The urgency just perplexes me BT.
Also, I'm not a big fan of plugging holes rather than letting the team develop organically. Like GVGjr said, Crameri is our buy, now let's settle and see what we can get out of the draft.
I'm not convinced that given the growth of Stringer, Grant and Crameri as players that we will need a match-winning focal point in the forward line. Someone like Tom Campbell or Liam Jones could well be enough to provide the contest and bring the ball to ground.
GVGjr
01-10-2013, 09:50 PM
GVG, who and what type of KPF would you look to draft? Apparently next year's crop is a little better than this year's - would you wait? Would you target a gorilla KF capable of ruck relief or a mobile, leading forward?
I think we already have a good selection of forwards. Grant plays as a flanker, Stringer can move between a KY or FP role. Jones FF/CHF capable on moving into the ruck. Campbell still has a long way to go but showed some promise and assuming the Crameri deal gets done it tops off our tall forward options nicely.
This doesn't mean we shouldn't look at this years draft options as well. McCarthy look an exciting option with his athleticism and skills plus he could develop into a part time ruck option.
Apeness is a ruckman/forward that I rate highly. He's a very competitive type. Marsh is that exciting and mobile forward that would compare to Andrew Walker and there are some other decent forwards that could be selected later in the draft.
I'd favor selecting forwards that can provide some versatility and the likes of McCarthy, Apeness and Marsh offer that.
If the Crameri deal is done and Patton isn't a realistic chance then I think going to the draft table is a positive for us. It doesn't just have to be trades.
Frogga12
01-10-2013, 10:18 PM
The list as it is today won't win a premiership, as is. It needs some enhancements. Crameri is a good start, but a genuine KPP is necessary. If it's not this year so be it, but we had a much better forward line late last decade at the same size and every single observer acknowledged we needed a Buddy, Riewoldt, Hawkins, Cloke etc etc.
But that doesn't mean overpaying for a spud, it means I think we need this type of player to complete the package. Get a cheap option like Thorp and wait for this KPP to come our way. Hopefully sooner rather than later.
I agree with this strategy. Unfortunately the cards are unlikely to fall our way so lets keep our round 1 and go for a Thorp type as a cheap option with potential upside and let's wait until next year.
LostDoggy
02-10-2013, 01:22 AM
... there's no reason to focus on fixing the key forward issue before any of the others.
The urgency just perplexes me BT.
There is a reason for urgency. If we draft a KPF it will take three to five years before he has the body to be of value. Hawks won their premiership 4 yrs post drafting Franklin and Roughead. If we wait to next year to draft a KPF it will be 2018 when that KPF is going to contribute. If we wait longer then our mids will have peaked, Griffen and Minson will be gone or nearly gone, GCS and GWS will be up and about...it will be tough.
Alternatively, you do a Sydney and just buy them, but clearly we aren't Sydney...
And in my view 1 or preferably 2 good KPFs are just as important as a good midfield or backline. Premiership teams without good KPFs are the exception rather than the rule.
Jones was dropped this year, and if he ends up as good as Gunston, yay. If Campbell ends up as good a Hale that would be great. That leaves at least one KPF as a gaping hole in our list.
LostDoggy
02-10-2013, 04:13 AM
Wow, the kid's 22 years old playing as the no 1 forward in a bottom 4 side are you're pulling the pin on him?
Shaysus :eek:
Exactly.....surround him with good forwards and a cohesive structure and see wht he can do. He no longer plays as the main target but one of four or five targets. Imagine all the focus being on Crameri, Grant and Stringer on the lead, with Tom in the square....all of a sudden Jones has the freedom to take those big marks.
What is it that impresses you so much about Jones?
He doesn't take the leading marks, will run under 8 balls before taking the come from behind screamer. Then his kicking is quite questionable when he does get it.
Yes he has had a bad run with getting the #1 defender but has also had his far share of not being the main man and still fails to turn it on.....the Carlton game comes to mind, not only getting beat but being consistently out muscled buy a player 15kg lighter than him.
As it is put, I'm not going to pull the pin on him but he is running out of chances. Especially after seeing the likes of Grant step it up late in the season, or the glimpse of Stringer we got this year, leading (and sometimes diving) marks, out muscling people then can bang a few down from the 45-50m range. I can see the weapons these guys are packing and can understand where it can go. I'm just failing to see it with Jones.
And then we got Hall and had a worse season than in '09.
Good midfields and back lines win premierships, not key forwards.
This.
always right
02-10-2013, 07:47 AM
What is it that impresses you so much about Jones?
He doesn't take the leading marks, will run under 8 balls before taking the come from behind screamer. Then his kicking is quite questionable when he does get it.
Yes he has had a bad run with getting the #1 defender but has also had his far share of not being the main man and still fails to turn it on.....the Carlton game comes to mind, not only getting beat but being consistently out muscled buy a player 15kg lighter than him.
As it is put, I'm not going to pull the pin on him but he is running out of chances. Especially after seeing the likes of Grant step it up late in the season, or the glimpse of Stringer we got this year, leading (and sometimes diving) marks, out muscling people then can bang a few down from the 45-50m range. I can see the weapons these guys are packing and can understand where it can go. I'm just failing to see it with Jones.
Isn't this the exact reason we should persevere with Jones? For a club apparently crying out for a key forward you don't just discard someone like Jones just because he hasn't developed at the rate supporters would like to see. Let's reserve judgement until we see how he goes with a better forwardline structure.
LostDoggy
02-10-2013, 09:01 AM
Isn't this the exact reason we should persevere with Jones? For a club apparently crying out for a key forward you don't just discard someone like Jones just because he hasn't developed at the rate supporters would like to see. Let's reserve judgement until we see how he goes with a better forwardline structure.
100%.
Which is why I say I am close to giving up on him. However the opposite can be true.......the emerge of Gant, Stringer and Campbell result in FWD positions in the team being a "lock in" week in week out, leaving Jones somewhat fighting for the scraps. His chances now to develop could be on a path of a radioactive half life?
But my question to the Jones fans was, what are the weapons that impress you? What do you see in him that makes you want to pump game after game into him to develop?
I know he can take a hanger, but if we gave Zeph Skinner 50 games he probably would have taken the last three marks of the year by now too. He doesn't kick the ball well, he isn't strong, his fwd pressure isn't fantastic. Please don't take this as anger towards him but I'm thinking if he has another year like this season I can't see why we would keep him in 12 months.
always right
02-10-2013, 09:14 AM
100%.
Which is why I say I am close to giving up on him. However the opposite can be true.......the emerge of Gant, Stringer and Campbell result in FWD positions in the team being a "lock in" week in week out, leaving Jones somewhat fighting for the scraps. His chances now to develop could be on a path of a radioactive half life?
But my question to the Jones fans was, what are the weapons that impress you? What do you see in him that makes you want to pump game after game into him to develop?
I know he can take a hanger, but if we gave Zeph Skinner 50 games he probably would have taken the last three marks of the year by now too. He doesn't kick the ball well, he isn't strong, his fwd pressure isn't fantastic. Please don't take this as anger towards him but I'm thinking if he has another year like this season I can't see why we would keep him in 12 months.
I've seen a significant improvement in his kicking....both for goal and in general play. Certainly not a strength but no longer the basket case it once was. Have no reason to think it won't continue to improve.
You've already mentioned his marking. One of his biggest weaknesses is being outpositioned but I have no doubt he can address this by continuing to work with Mooney who has recently committed to spending more time at the club in his role.
For a KPF he has enormous pace and has no problem burning off opponents. He just needs to run smarter, at the right time and to the right spots. Again this can come with more intensive coaching. It is an asset he can also use to put defensive pressure on defenders. Another pre-season will continue to build his tank to do this more often.
I think there is plenty to work with but the area of greatest concern is his lack of poise. My son pointed this out to me when he mentioned that Jones is perhaps the worst player on our list when he has time and space, the ball is loose and an easy goal beckons. He gets over-anxious and invariably stuffs up. He's kind of the opposite to Murphy. I'm not sure how you can coach poise into a player.
bulldogtragic
02-10-2013, 10:11 AM
I'd also prefer to have one than not, and I'm certainly not saying they're not important purely because we don't have one. What I am saying is that we can drive ourselves crazy looking for a key forward, just as we have for the last ten years, or we can observe that there's a number of deficiencies in our talent pool and there's no reason to focus on fixing the key forward issue before any of the others.
The urgency just perplexes me BT.
Also, I'm not a big fan of plugging holes rather than letting the team develop organically. Like GVGjr said, Crameri is our buy, now let's settle and see what we can get out of the draft.
I'm not convinced that given the growth of Stringer, Grant and Crameri as players that we will need a match-winning focal point in the forward line. Someone like Tom Campbell or Liam Jones could well be enough to provide the contest and bring the ball to ground.
There is no urgency at all on my part. I've said in every post lets not get mid range spuds and if it doesn't happen this year again, so be it.
What I'm saying is that JMac shouldn't be pitching to the board that we shouldn't have a big FF. If he's pitching talented small and mid forwards he should look back 6 years ago. A talented big bodied skillful FF is a wonder. Yes, they are very hard to get, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't stop the hunt.
We will have a varied forward line for sure, but give me a good FF any day. If it's not this year, fine, but if we wanted any forward line in our imagination I'm sure it would involve a tall forward, not 6 small and mids. Whatever happens this off season happens, but I for one don't advocate the best forward line does not involve a big bodied tall forward.
As for what we have Campbell is still to raw to call him the next Beasley and if Will goes down he's our number one ruckman, and it pains me to say Jones had a nothing year. Grant plays small, Stringer and Crameri are probably earmarked for midfield duties too. Higgins and Williams are a bonus, not certainties. Gia has one year. Hunter, Dahl and Hrovat are the genuine smalls. So we have variety, but I still think a genuine FF will add another dimension. Trade, FA, draft, this year, next year, whatever. I just see an area where we could improve.
OLD SCRAGGer
02-10-2013, 10:12 AM
I agree with this strategy. Unfortunately the cards are unlikely to fall our way so lets keep our round 1 and go for a Thorp type as a cheap option with potential upside and let's wait until next year.
This ^^^^
Mofra
02-10-2013, 10:35 AM
Nope not pulling the pin; I live in constant hope. Wouldn't you like a backup plan though or are you happy to risk it all on one guy?
Risking it all on one player? Now you're just making stuff up.
Jones is AFL standard - I don't even agree with comparing him to Gunston who gets the 4th defender, given Jones takes the best or second best defender every week.
Jones will make it - he's shown more than many, many 22 year old kids playing in the toughest spot on the paddock. Butcher & Sam Reid were the comparison last year, and he's comfortably overtaken both.
All he needs to do is contribute - which for the most part he does - and he earns his spot in the forward six.
Eastdog
02-10-2013, 10:38 AM
Risking it all on one player? Now you're just making stuff up.
Jones is AFL standard - I don't even agree with comparing him to Gunston who gets the 4th defender, given Jones takes the best or second best defender every week.
Jones will make it - he's shown more than many, many 22 year old kids playing in the toughest spot on the paddock. Butcher & Sam Reid were the comparison last year, and he's comfortably overtaken both.
All he needs to do is contribute - which for the most part he does - and he earns his spot in the forward six.
What happened to Butcher? I remember at one stage for Port Adelaide he was very good.
Mofra
02-10-2013, 10:41 AM
What is it that impresses you so much about Jones?
Aside from Jeremy Cameron, how many kids 22 or under played the majority of the year as the main target in the F50?
He's quick for his height, with his freakishly short legs he's balanced and he can take contested marks.
He is our best tall forward and he's only 22. Dale Morris was rookied at age 22.
LostDoggy
02-10-2013, 10:59 AM
What happened to Butcher? I remember at one stage for Port Adelaide he was very good.
Injury-prone and can't kick to save his life. But apart from that he's a gun. :D
always right
02-10-2013, 11:37 AM
What happened to Butcher? I remember at one stage for Port Adelaide he was very good.
Played one good game...against us:rolleyes:
Greystache
02-10-2013, 11:43 AM
Played one good game...against us:rolleyes:
Kicked a bag of 6 against Williams and Wood (who was giving up 12 cm), hardly quality opposition either. Put him on a good defender like Roughead or Lake that day and he'd never have been heard of.
Eastdog
02-10-2013, 11:44 AM
Played one good game...against us:rolleyes:
I remember he played more than 1 good game against a few teams and then just faded out of the limelight. People were really going on about how good he was.
always right
02-10-2013, 11:47 AM
I remember he played more than 1 good game against a few teams and then just faded out of the limelight. People were really going on about how good he was.
Would instantly become the worst kick in our side if he joined us. No thanks.
bulldogtragic
02-10-2013, 11:51 AM
Twitter reports Jacksch wants back to victoria. Thoughts?
always right
02-10-2013, 11:58 AM
Twitter reports Jacksch wants back to victoria. Thoughts?
Apart from his pre-draft highlights package I know nothing about him. Has anyone seen him play since he joined GWS? Just because he was a relatively high draft pick doesn't automatically make him someone we should chase. The same argument could be made for Patton...but to a lesser extent.
bulldogtragic
02-10-2013, 12:14 PM
Jaksch's manager says he is unsigned but not expecting a move.
F'scary
02-10-2013, 12:39 PM
I am in the keep developing Jones camp too. Early in the season, there was a lot of enthusiasm as he showed strong improvement on 2012 efforts. By the end of the season we had got used to this level of performance and were looking for more from him. We have to persevere with him in 2014, he has shown enough such that the downside risk of ditching him at this stage needs to be weighed carefully. Specifically, the risk is that he improves again and starts starring at CHF...for someone else who got him as a cheap discard from WB.
bulldogsman
02-10-2013, 12:50 PM
Maybe just draft Ben Brown. Seems like his injury free now and he's starting to show a bit of his potential. I don't really want White, Gumby, McKernan or Mitchell. I like Cam Conlon later in the draft too.
bulldogtragic
02-10-2013, 12:53 PM
Maybe just draft Ben Brown. Seems like his injury free now and he's starting to show a bit of his potential. I don't really want White, Gumby, McKernan or Mitchell. I like Cam Conlon later in the draft too.
Twitter saying brown testing well. Price may have gone up a little.
LostDoggy
02-10-2013, 01:53 PM
Risking it all on one player? Now you're just making stuff up.
Jones is AFL standard - I don't even agree with comparing him to Gunston who gets the 4th defender, given Jones takes the best or second best defender every week.
Jones will make it - he's shown more than many, many 22 year old kids playing in the toughest spot on the paddock. Butcher & Sam Reid were the comparison last year, and he's comfortably overtaken both.
All he needs to do is contribute - which for the most part he does - and he earns his spot in the forward six.
Really? What am I making up? Jones is the only player of his size and type on our list. All I'm advocating is that we draft another in case he continues at 1 goal per game for another 50 games. I'm not saying trade him. I've never said I give up on him which you have accused me of in a previous post. I'm simply saying I believe, In my opinion, For what's its worth, there is as good a chance he won't make up a part of any premiership tilt as that he will. He's ok. Yes he's had good moments but if you deny he is an active part of running under the mark again and again and again then you sir, are the maker-upperer! I hope he makes it; I sincerely hope we don't rely on the "hope" that he makes it and we make a play for a forward who could play a similar role like a McCarthy or a Jaksch. It will be another 4 years before either hits their own straps so waiting to see how Jones ends up is a flawed strategy. Can I say I sincerely, SINCERELY, hope you are right. I don't own my own pair of rosé-lensed glasses however and I have doubts. Having said that; I would support he's gone past Butcher and he's probably on par with Sam Reid for mine. Sydney also have Tippett et al to use - we do not.
Dry Rot
02-10-2013, 02:55 PM
IIRC next year's draft is a good one NB for tall forwards and maybe we should be patient depending on how you predict our 2014 season going.
Crystal ball gazing is dangerous, but here goes...
GWS to come last, will pick a midfielder (assuming they keep Boyd).
Brisbane (club is falling apart), Saints (now overtly rebuilding and shopping senior players) and Dees (Roos will find that miracles don't happen) to make up the rest of the bottom 4. Let's say that Brisbane and Saints possibly pick a tall forward, Dees don't. That's 1-2 tall forwards gone.
At the other end of the table, I'd say at least the Hawks, Freo, Swans, Cats, Port and the Tigers will make the finals, so forget about them. Let's also leave the Bombers out of this.
That leaves 7 teams. IMO WCE and North under achieved, and will do much better in 2014.
Which leaves 5 teams: GC, Carlton, Crows, Pies and us. GC will continue to improve with their star young midfield, and the Pies will probably be fringe 8. Both probably will finish above us.
Which leaves 3 teams Dogs, Blues and Crows with picks 5-7 next year. If there's 5 or 6 good tall forward picks in the first round, we are likely to get one.
Maybe we should be patient for now, and get one or two of Thorp, Conlon or Brown this year.
Mofra
02-10-2013, 03:47 PM
Really? What am I making up? Jones is the only player of his size and type on our list.
You said I'm putting all my eggs in one basket -"happy to risk it all on one guy".
He is not the only player of his type and size on the list - Williams and Roberts are similar size and move relatively well, it's just that Jones is much better than both of them as a forward and is more durable as well.
All I'm advocating is that we draft another in case he continues at 1 goal per game for another 50 games. I'm not saying trade him. I've never said I give up on him which you have accused me of in a previous post.
Wait, you don't have faith that he'll make it and he's on his "third strike" - how else is anyone supposed to read it?
I'm simply saying I believe, In my opinion, For what's its worth, there is as good a chance he won't make up a part of any premiership tilt as that he will. He's ok. Yes he's had good moments but if you deny he is an active part of running under the mark again and again and again then you sir, are the maker-upperer! I hope he makes it; I sincerely hope we don't rely on the "hope" that he makes it and we make a play for a forward who could play a similar role like a McCarthy or a Jaksch. It will be another 4 years before either hits their own straps so waiting to see how Jones ends up is a flawed strategy. Can I say I sincerely, SINCERELY, hope you are right. I don't own my own pair of rosé-lensed glasses however and I have doubts. Having said that; I would support he's gone past Butcher and he's probably on par with Sam Reid for mine. Sydney also have Tippett et al to use - we do not.
I think he's shown more than any other 22 year old KPF we've had since Chris Grant, albeit the cupboard has been pretty bare over the years.
Nobody is suggesting he has to be a star - but he's playing his role and is still many years off his best - I disagree fundamentally that a 22 year old developing KPF who has endured terrible F50 supply for a large chunk of his career and is playing in a bottom 4 side should be "on his third strike".
TBH I see Jones as a Drew Petrie type - not a superstar, but generally does enough to build a forwardline around if there is quality around him. As a 22 year old, Jones is ahead of him at the same age. If we get 244 games & 309 goals from Jones over the journey (Petrie's stats to the end of this year) I'd call that a win fro a second round draft pick - it certainly beats Minson & Hahn being our two talls. Does that mean I wouldn't want us to draft a tall forward to develop? Hell no, nor have I said we shouldn't - but by all accounts next year is the draft to do it and the likelihood is that with improved composure with ball in hand and the addition of Crameri our F50 should function better than in 2013 anyway.
Dry Rot
02-10-2013, 04:07 PM
The problem with Jones is that Morris has better forward's instincts.
Should be trialled at CHB.
LostDoggy
02-10-2013, 04:52 PM
I've seen a significant improvement in his kicking....both for goal and in general play. Certainly not a strength but no longer the basket case it once was. Have no reason to think it won't continue to improve.
You've already mentioned his marking. One of his biggest weaknesses is being outpositioned but I have no doubt he can address this by continuing to work with Mooney who has recently committed to spending more time at the club in his role.
For a KPF he has enormous pace and has no problem burning off opponents. He just needs to run smarter, at the right time and to the right spots. Again this can come with more intensive coaching. It is an asset he can also use to put defensive pressure on defenders. Another pre-season will continue to build his tank to do this more often.
I think there is plenty to work with but the area of greatest concern is his lack of poise. My son pointed this out to me when he mentioned that Jones is perhaps the worst player on our list when he has time and space, the ball is loose and an easy goal beckons. He gets over-anxious and invariably stuffs up. He's kind of the opposite to Murphy. I'm not sure how you can coach poise into a player.
Firstly let me say I don't disagree with you, with his size and athletic ability there is something to work with. I guess my next question is how long do we work with it?
You are right about poise. I guess to bring you where my frame of mind is let's compare him to Stringer (I know not the same type of player). From the little we have seen from him we know 1. He has the body, 2. He has consistently punched home some 45-50m set shots, 3. Has poise, eg. Dribble goal v WCE, or Ripper against Richmond. 4. Can lead to the ball and 5. Make the best of a poor delivery (something most people use as an excuse for Jones). So You can see all the building blocks with someone like Jake, where Liam seems to be at a wall for some reason? So again (calm question) How long do you see the club persisting with putting the effort into Jones?
He is our best tall forward and he's only 22. Dale Morris was rookied at age 22.
That doesn't say much though, you could also say that the cupboard is bare dwn at the Whitten oval as far as good tall forwards go?
Good point you make Mofra about he gets a lot of #1 defenders week in week out, and I take that onboard. I guess that then raises the next question, what do we do if he continues to draw the key defender and gets bath after bath? That can't help his development surely? I know with the youngsters they put in the hard yards in the Magoos as a way to restore their fath in their ability. Is Jones staring at a stint with Footscray (that's the first time I have written that name fr a while, and it felt good) to keep him progressing?
Scorlibo
02-10-2013, 05:00 PM
You said I'm putting all my eggs in one basket -"happy to risk it all on one guy".
He is not the only player of his type and size on the list - Williams and Roberts are similar size and move relatively well, it's just that Jones is much better than both of them as a forward and is more durable as well.
TBH I see Jones as a Drew Petrie type - not a superstar, but generally does enough to build a forwardline around if there is quality around him. As a 22 year old, Jones is ahead of him at the same age. If we get 244 games & 309 goals from Jones over the journey (Petrie's stats to the end of this year) I'd call that a win fro a second round draft pick - it certainly beats Minson & Hahn being our two talls. Does that mean I wouldn't want us to draft a tall forward to develop? Hell no, nor have I said we shouldn't - but by all accounts next year is the draft to do it and the likelihood is that with improved composure with ball in hand and the addition of Crameri our F50 should function better than in 2013 anyway.
Drew Petrie is a star. He's overcome injury to be one of the most consistent marking targets in the competition. I rate him very highly and looking at his career games/goals is misleading - he's played at CHB and in the ruck almost as much as he's played forward over the years.
For a full-time key forward, a goal a game return is not good enough.
Having said that, I'm of the opinion that Jonesy can be our forward target without being our forward star. He's a good character and that goes a long way.
Mofra
02-10-2013, 05:00 PM
That doesn't say much though, you could also say that the cupboard is bare dwn at the Whitten oval as far as good tall forwards go?
Good point you make Mofra about he gets a lot of #1 defenders week in week out, and I take that onboard. I guess that then raises the next question, what do we do if he continues to draw the key defender and gets bath after bath? That can't help his development surely? I know with the youngsters they put in the hard yards in the Magoos as a way to restore their fath in their ability. Is Jones staring at a stint with Footscray (that's the first time I have written that name fr a while, and it felt good) to keep him progressing?
I think it says as much about our expectations as it does about Jones. He still finished 3rd on our goalkicking list taking the no 1 defender every week, often playing up the ground as well.
He is developing, yet he is being judged as a finished product - I think given the circumstances it's more than a little unfair.
We have issues more pressing than Jones' development - a lack of genuine line-braking re-bounder from the HB line, a pacy mid, a genuine second tall (in lieu of the multi-mid forward line that got Freo to the GF which is probably another topic for debate in itself) and the development of kids who are probably behind where we thought they'd be at this stage.
always right
02-10-2013, 05:26 PM
So again (calm question) How long do you see the club persisting with putting the effort into Jones?
I see the club persisting with him for at least a couple more years but he needs to make some strides next season. For the first time it appears he may be part of what on paper looks to be a far more threatening forwardline where he won't always draw the opposition best defender. I think the club (and most supporters) will be keen to see how he develops in this structure next year and the one after.
always right
02-10-2013, 05:28 PM
Drew Petrie is a star. He's overcome injury to be one of the most consistent marking targets in the competition. I rate him very highly and looking at his career games/goals is misleading - he's played at CHB and in the ruck almost as much as he's played forward over the years.
For a full-time key forward, a goal a game return is not good enough.
Having said that, I'm of the opinion that Jonesy can be our forward target without being our forward star. He's a good character and that goes a long way.
I'd be delighted if Jones turned out as good as Petrie.
LostDoggy
02-10-2013, 05:48 PM
I see the club persisting with him for at least a couple more years but he needs to make some strides next season. For the first time it appears he may be part of what on paper looks to be a far more threatening forwardline where he won't always draw the opposition best defender. I think the club (and most supporters) will be keen to see how he develops in this structure next year and the one after.
This is probably why I am not "pulling the pin" on him yet. His role and pecking order will not be he same next year, his inclusion into the side will not be a given and he will be heading into the start of his optimum years as a footballer. So unfortunately expectations he is required to meet will also increase. Good news is the Western Bulldogs are not knocking on the door of a premiership tilt yet and can afford probably one more year to see. God luck Jonesy, proove me wrong, I'll be happy to eat my words.
Happy Days
02-10-2013, 08:04 PM
Scorlibo is right, KPFs are overrated.
In 09, when we were just "OMG THEY WORK HARD AND THEY ARE FAST AND EXCITING BUT I JUST THINK THEY NEED ONE BIG KEY TARGET TO HANDLE THAT FINALS PRESSURE", we were also the highest scoring team in the league. As in, the best.
We were not missing a key forward, but rather composure, which is not a surprising missing element from a team ingrained its a culture of humiliation. If Gia kicks that goal we win and we have revolutionised the game forever with our exciting mosquito fleet of guys who can't ride a roller coaster.
The last few premiership teams: Roughy and Bud sucked on Grand Final day, the year before so did Reid. Geelong used a combination of a hack Mooney, a fat Hawkins, and a senior citizen in Podsiadly, all of whom have spent more time in their professional careers being bad than good; Geelong would have had just as much service from a tree planted 10m out. And Collingwood have Cloke, but their midfield were the ones who won them their flag.
I'm not saying that they're not valuable, they are! Its just that they're no more valuable than a gun anything else.
comrade
02-10-2013, 08:42 PM
The flipside is that Roughy and Buddy take the focus away from Gunston who gets off the leash and wins them the game.
Mooney, Hawkins and Pods allowed mid sized forwards like SJ and Chappy to take on lesser defenders who aren't as good in the air.
soupman
02-10-2013, 08:47 PM
The flipside is that Roughy and Buddy take the focus away from Gunston who gets off the leash and wins them the game.
Mooney, Hawkins and Pods allowed mid sized forwards like SJ and Chappy to take on lesser defenders who aren't as good in the air.
Surely the idea of having multiple forwards who can all mark, kick goals and have pace (but are mid sized) works the same. One of them will eventually get off the chain in that scenario too.
1eyedog
02-10-2013, 09:00 PM
Scorlibo is right, KPFs are overrated.
In 09, when we were just "OMG THEY WORK HARD AND THEY ARE FAST AND EXCITING BUT I JUST THINK THEY NEED ONE BIG KEY TARGET TO HANDLE THAT FINALS PRESSURE", we were also the highest scoring team in the league. As in, the best.
We were not missing a key forward, but rather composure, which is not a surprising missing element from a team ingrained its a culture of humiliation. If Gia kicks that goal we win and we have revolutionised the game forever with our exciting mosquito fleet of guys who can't ride a roller coaster.
The last few premiership teams: Roughy and Bud sucked on Grand Final day, the year before so did Reid. Geelong used a combination of a hack Mooney, a fat Hawkins, and a senior citizen in Podsiadly, all of whom have spent more time in their professional careers being bad than good; Geelong would have had just as much service from a tree planted 10m out. And Collingwood have Cloke, but their midfield were the ones who won them their flag.
I'm not saying that they're not valuable, they are! Its just that they're no more valuable than a gun anything else.
That fat Tom Hawkins won them that Grand Final in the space of 10 minutes with incredible individual efforts against Reid. Without Hawkins, that result was a coin toss.
And I'm not sure what you're on re. Roughie's Grand Final performance; 20 touches, 12 contested, a handful of clearances and 2.3 is a major contribution on the day, especially so if he had of kicked straight.
A gun key forward (a real gun) is worth two gun mids any day of the week for mine.
bulldogtragic
02-10-2013, 09:05 PM
So if you could have had one of the Saints forwards 6 years ago, you'd have Milne over Riewoldt?
soupman
02-10-2013, 09:32 PM
So if you could have had one of the Saints forwards 6 years ago, you'd have Milne over Riewoldt?
Don't twist it, that's not what he's saying.
I think he raises good examples, and it's true. In our prelims we would have won at least one, possibly two if we just took our chances even with our midget forwardline.
always right
02-10-2013, 09:34 PM
So if you could have had one of the Saints forwards 6 years ago, you'd have Milne over Riewoldt?
Silly comparison. Riewoldt is simply a better footballer regardless of size and position.
1eyedog
02-10-2013, 10:02 PM
Don't twist it, that's not what he's saying.
I think he raises good examples, and it's true. In our prelims we would have won at least one, possibly two if we just took our chances even with our midget forwardline.
We would have stood an even better chance if St. Kilda didn't have Riewoldt. Riewoldt was BOG and kicked 4 in 08. In 09 he kicks 3 and is BOG again. Key forward the difference in 2 of our prelim losses.
The Bulldogs Bite
02-10-2013, 10:09 PM
We would have stood an even better chance if St. Kilda didn't have Riewoldt. Riewoldt was BOG and kicked 4 in 08. In 09 he kicks 3 and is BOG again. Key forward the difference in 2 of our prelim losses.
From memory we kicked something like 2.5 in the first quarter. If it was 5.2 and we took our chances late (ie. Gilbee's miss) then the simple fact is we play in a Grand Final, regardless of Riewoldt. None of the misses were overtly difficult IIRC.
1eyedog
02-10-2013, 10:24 PM
From memory we kicked something like 2.5 in the first quarter. If it was 5.2 and we took our chances late (ie. Gilbee's miss) then the simple fact is we play in a Grand Final, regardless of Riewoldt. None of the misses were overtly difficult IIRC.
Yep thanks for reminding me. Our goal kicking was terrible but it was what it was and back to my response to the OP in the end it was the value of the opposition's key forward on both occasions that got them over the line. You could just as easily say that regardless of our goal kicking efficiency we probably would have won had Riewoldt not played.
Bulldog Joe
03-10-2013, 06:47 AM
We would have stood an even better chance if St. Kilda didn't have Riewoldt. Riewoldt was BOG and kicked 4 in 08. In 09 he kicks 3 and is BOG again. Key forward the difference in 2 of our prelim losses.
Alternative universe perhaps.
I can't recall playing St Kilda in 08 finals although I do recall a loss to Geelong in that prelim.
We did lose to the Saints in 09 when 2 of Riewoldt's goals were highly questionable. We had plenty of chances including a miss from Gilbee from 35 or 40 and a more difficult snap from Gia straight after. both those in the last qtr after we had dominated the 1st quarter without sufficient scoreboard reward.
In 2010 we were well and truly shot by the prelim but actually had a big forward in Baz.
always right
03-10-2013, 07:55 AM
Alternative universe perhaps.
I can't recall playing St Kilda in 08 finals although I do recall a loss to Geelong in that prelim.
We did lose to the Saints in 09 when 2 of Riewoldt's goals were highly questionable. We had plenty of chances including a miss from Gilbee from 35 or 40 and a more difficult snap from Gia straight after. both those in the last qtr after we had dominated the 1st quarter without sufficient scoreboard reward.
In 2010 we were well and truly shot by the prelim but actually had a big forward in Baz.
Factual information has no place on this forum:)
bulldogtragic
03-10-2013, 08:42 AM
Silly comparison. Riewoldt is simply a better footballer regardless of size and position.
How is it silly???
Milne has played 275 games for 574 goals
Riewoldt has played 259 games for 570 goals
Yeah, silly comparison.... Apart from being statically identical.
Anyway, I'd take Riewoldt despite history showing them equal as goal kickers.
But hey let's bang on about how we don't need talls, because these stats shows Milne is equal to Riewoldt, I'm sure St Kilda would have done just as well with 2 Milnes and no Riewoldt. We don't need talls.
Mofra
03-10-2013, 10:13 AM
I'd be delighted if Jones turned out as good as Petrie.
Jones is ahead of him at the same age
Greystache
03-10-2013, 10:24 AM
Scorlibo is right, KPFs are overrated.
In 09, when we were just "OMG THEY WORK HARD AND THEY ARE FAST AND EXCITING BUT I JUST THINK THEY NEED ONE BIG KEY TARGET TO HANDLE THAT FINALS PRESSURE", we were also the highest scoring team in the league. As in, the best.
We were not missing a key forward, but rather composure, which is not a surprising missing element from a team ingrained its a culture of humiliation. If Gia kicks that goal we win and we have revolutionised the game forever with our exciting mosquito fleet of guys who can't ride a roller coaster.
The last few premiership teams: Roughy and Bud sucked on Grand Final day, the year before so did Reid. Geelong used a combination of a hack Mooney, a fat Hawkins, and a senior citizen in Podsiadly, all of whom have spent more time in their professional careers being bad than good; Geelong would have had just as much service from a tree planted 10m out. And Collingwood have Cloke, but their midfield were the ones who won them their flag.
I'm not saying that they're not valuable, they are! Its just that they're no more valuable than a gun anything else.
The "highest scoring team in the league. As in, the best" makes a nice story looking back, but it just highlights the small forward set up could cut up mediocre teams during the H&A season but could barely score against the best teams. Putting aside the elephant in the room that our record during those up years against top 4 teams was circa 10 wins from 72 games, this high scoring team averaged a whopping 7.3 goals a game in its 3 prelim finals and 8.3 in its 6 finals against fellow top 4 finishers.
Our total and complete inablility to kick goals when pressure was applied to the ball carrier was as much of a reason we couldn't beat good teams as anything else, including our lack of defensive effort. We didn't have a target in the forward line who could take contested marks, or at least guide the ball to ground for smaller players to crumb and give us some structure, we just had 6 small forwards all individually trying to mark with no plan B.
All of the teams who beat us had at least 2 credible forward targets, including fat Hawkins who should have been the 2011 Norm Smith medalist.
bulldogtragic
03-10-2013, 10:28 AM
The "highest scoring team in the league. As in, the best" makes a nice story looking back, but it just highlights the small forward set up could cut up mediocre teams during the H&A season but could barely score against the best teams. Putting aside the elephant in the room that our record during those up years against top 4 teams was circa 10 wins from 72 games, this high scoring team averaged a whopping 7.3 goals a game in its 3 prelim finals and 8.3 in its 6 finals against fellow top 4 finishers.
Our total and complete inablility to kick goals when pressure was applied to the ball carrier was as much of a reason we couldn't beat good teams as anything else, including our lack of defensive effort. We didn't have a target in the forward line who could take contested marks, or at least guide the ball to ground for smaller players to crumb and give us some structure, we just had 6 small forwards all individually trying to mark with no plan B.
All of the teams who beat us had at least 2 credible forward targets, including fat Hawkins who should have been the 2011 Norm Smith medalist.
Stache, if you start using facts, common sense and proof to make points this thread will get pretty one sided pretty quickly.
1eyedog
03-10-2013, 10:31 AM
Alternative universe perhaps.
I can't recall playing St Kilda in 08 finals although I do recall a loss to Geelong in that prelim.
We did lose to the Saints in 09 when 2 of Riewoldt's goals were highly questionable. We had plenty of chances including a miss from Gilbee from 35 or 40 and a more difficult snap from Gia straight after. both those in the last qtr after we had dominated the 1st quarter without sufficient scoreboard reward.
In 2010 we were well and truly shot by the prelim but actually had a big forward in Baz.
Correction 2010. The Post stands and all you've added is a duplication of the one I responded to. He was awarded two BOGs for a reason. Riewoldt was in his prime Hall was approaching his zenith and was underwhelming for us in that PF.
Scorlibo
03-10-2013, 10:40 AM
We would have stood an even better chance if St. Kilda didn't have Riewoldt. Riewoldt was BOG and kicked 4 in 08. In 09 he kicks 3 and is BOG again. Key forward the difference in 2 of our prelim losses.
Presuming you're talking about '09 and '10... Roo kicked 4 but of those 4, one was gifted to him with the softest free kick I've witnessed live and the other was a lucky toe-poke touched (by Harbrow IIRC) but given a goal. Take those two away and he's kicked 2 goals and had a good game without being 'the difference' by any stretch of the imagination.
That fat Tom Hawkins won them that Grand Final in the space of 10 minutes with incredible individual efforts against Reid. Without Hawkins, that result was a coin toss.
And I'm not sure what you're on re. Roughie's Grand Final performance; 20 touches, 12 contested, a handful of clearances and 2.3 is a major contribution on the day, especially so if he had of kicked straight.
A gun key forward (a real gun) is worth two gun mids any day of the week for mine.
You think that Buddy Franklin is worth Gary Ablett and Scott Pendlebury?
Nick Riewoldt = Lenny Hayes and Brendon Goddard circa 2010?
Tom Hawkins played well in that Grand Final but so did many others and you could just as easily pick out moments from other players that, if they hadn't have happened, one could say "well that won them the Grand Final".
How is it silly???
Milne has played 275 games for 574 goals
Riewoldt has played 259 games for 570 goals
Yeah, silly comparison.... Apart from being statically identical.
Anyway, I'd take Riewoldt despite history showing them equal as goal kickers.
But hey let's bang on about how we don't need talls, because these stats shows Milne is equal to Riewoldt, I'm sure St Kilda would have done just as well with 2 Milnes and no Riewoldt. We don't need talls.
BT, Riewoldt is a champion of the game. Milne is a good goal sneak. You can't just look at games and goals. Roo: 5 best and fairests, Milne: none.
A fair comparison for Riewoldt is with someone like Brad Johnson. I don't think anyone on this forum would swap for Riewoldt's career in a heartbeat.
If we're talking about what got St Kilda so close to a premiership in '09 and '10 then look no further than Lenny Hayes, absolute beast of a player in tight finals.
westdog54
03-10-2013, 10:48 AM
How is it silly???
Milne has played 275 games for 574 goals
Riewoldt has played 259 games for 570 goals
Yeah, silly comparison.... Apart from being statically identical.
Anyway, I'd take Riewoldt despite history showing them equal as goal kickers.
But hey let's bang on about how we don't need talls, because these stats shows Milne is equal to Riewoldt, I'm sure St Kilda would have done just as well with 2 Milnes and no Riewoldt. We don't need talls.
There's an awful lot of twisting of words happening on both sides of this argument.
I don't think anyone is saying 'We don't need talls'.
Saying that Milne and Riewoldt are 'statistically identical' is simplistic and misleading.
Average disposals over career: 16.4 for Reiwoldt, 11.9 for Milne
Marks: 8.7 to 3.6
I don't have stats available for Kms run in a game, but we know who will win that one by a fair margin. The only clear advantage that Milne has is in tackling.
Look, Milne was a seriously good crumbing forward. For a player his size his goal instincts are unmatched in this era. But its not a stretch to say that a Reiwoldt/Milne comparisn
BTW, in relation to the tall/short argument, Reiwoldt is only 3cm taller than Crameri, 2cm taller than Stringer and only 1cm taller than Grant. Jones is 3cm taller.
Just sayin...
Scorlibo
03-10-2013, 10:49 AM
The "highest scoring team in the league. As in, the best" makes a nice story looking back, but it just highlights the small forward set up could cut up mediocre teams during the H&A season but could barely score against the best teams. Putting aside the elephant in the room that our record during those up years against top 4 teams was circa 10 wins from 72 games, this high scoring team averaged a whopping 7.3 goals a game in its 3 prelim finals and 8.3 in its 6 finals against fellow top 4 finishers.
Our total and complete inablility to kick goals when pressure was applied to the ball carrier was as much of a reason we couldn't beat good teams as anything else, including our lack of defensive effort. We didn't have a target in the forward line who could take contested marks, or at least guide the ball to ground for smaller players to crumb and give us some structure, we just had 6 small forwards all individually trying to mark with no plan B.
All of the teams who beat us had at least 2 credible forward targets, including fat Hawkins who should have been the 2011 Norm Smith medalist.
10 wins from 72 games? You mean to say that we played 72 games in total over three seasons, played top four teams in roughly 20 of those games and won 10? By my reckoning, that's a 50% w/l record. Did you actually go back and count the number of wins and losses against top four sides or are you pulling figures out of the air? I think you're correct in saying that we performed far worse against top four sides, but the figure you gave is misleading.
You have to note that in 2010 we had Barry, one of the best key forwards in the league - even then.
bulldogtragic
03-10-2013, 10:51 AM
Presuming you're talking about '09 and '10... Roo kicked 4 but of those 4, one was gifted to him with the softest free kick I've witnessed live and the other was a lucky toe-poke touched (by Harbrow IIRC) but given a goal. Take those two away and he's kicked 2 goals and had a good game without being 'the difference' by any stretch of the imagination.
You think that Buddy Franklin is worth Gary Ablett and Scott Pendlebury?
Nick Riewoldt = Lenny Hayes and Brendon Goddard circa 2010?
Tom Hawkins played well in that Grand Final but so did many others and you could just as easily pick out moments from other players that, if they hadn't have happened, one could say "well that won them the Grand Final".
BT, Riewoldt is a champion of the game. Milne is a good goal sneak. You can't just look at games and goals. Roo: 5 best and fairests, Milne: none.
A fair comparison for Riewoldt is with someone like Brad Johnson. I don't think anyone on this forum would swap for Riewoldt's career in a heartbeat.
If we're talking about what got St Kilda so close to a premiership in '09 and '10 then look no further than Lenny Hayes, absolute beast of a player in tight finals.
The thing is you have to though. Same games, same goals, same team, same era.
The reason Riewoldt is more important is because he is a KPP which gives him more dimensions as a player. If Milne could take courageous pack marks thing might be different. Would Riewoldt be a champion of the game if he was 8cm smaller?
They have both contributed equally as a goal scoring forward, one is tall, one is small. I'd take both players of that quality, but the big one first.
westdog54
03-10-2013, 10:52 AM
Tom Hawkins played well in that Grand Final but so did many others and you could just as easily pick out moments from other players that, if they hadn't have happened, one could say "well that won them the Grand Final".
For me one player whose contribution goes largely unnoticed in that game is Travis Varcoe. Ran hard all day and flogged an unnaccountable Leon Davis.
LostDoggy
03-10-2013, 10:52 AM
You said I'm putting all my eggs in one basket -"happy to risk it all on one guy".
He is not the only player of his type and size on the list - Williams and Roberts are similar size and move relatively well, it's just that Jones is much better than both of them as a forward and is more durable as well.
Wow. OK. Williams is broken. I love watching him play and he's one of my favourites players but his body is one busted unit. If we are going to rely on him as our back up man for the finals we are already in trouble. I refer you to the bung shoulder he recieved via port adelaide politely asking him if he would like fries with that.... Jones is much better than Roberts this far correct. So our 1 goal a game forward is better than our back up plan. AWESOME!
Wait, you don't have faith that he'll make it and he's on his "third strike" - how else is anyone supposed to read it?
Read it as I mean't it. He needs to show significant improvement this year or we need to consider a new plan. This year he will have Crameri (hopefully), and Stringer off his second preseason to take the heat off. If Campbell continues on as well he gets no more excuses about being the guy having to carry the whole load.
I think he's shown more than any other 22 year old KPF we've had since Chris Grant, albeit the cupboard has been pretty bare over the years.
God yes! Preaching to the choir. Sing it out brother Amen.
Nobody is suggesting he has to be a star - but he's playing his role and is still many years off his best - I disagree fundamentally that a 22 year old developing KPF who has endured terrible F50 supply for a large chunk of his career and is playing in a bottom 4 side should be "on his third strike".
Fine. I'm suggesting he will never be that star. No problem then. He's our Sam Reid. Lets draft for a Tippett as well. And just in case, lets get another Jones type who can play his role if if he doesn't take the next step. They can always take Williams spot down back when his shoulder goes again and yes I know we have Roberts as well but I refer you to your own assessment above.
TBH I see Jones as a Drew Petrie type - not a superstar, but generally does enough to build a forwardline around if there is quality around him. As a 22 year old, Jones is ahead of him at the same age. If we get 244 games & 309 goals from Jones over the journey (Petrie's stats to the end of this year) I'd call that a win fro a second round draft pick - it certainly beats Minson & Hahn being our two talls. Does that mean I wouldn't want us to draft a tall forward to develop? Hell no, nor have I said we shouldn't - but by all accounts next year is the draft to do it and the likelihood is that with improved composure with ball in hand and the addition of Crameri our F50 should function better than in 2013 anyway.
If Jones becomes Drew Petrie then you win this debate. As other posters have stated Drew's numbers don't tell the story of his career. He's a game changer. I've yet to see Jones go close to that even at VFL level. The closest I saw this year was his 3 or 4 goal hauls - 1 AFL and 1 VFL so he's on the up. Whether he continues on is the question. He needs to improve this year, he is currently in and out of best 22 (Macca's vote not just mine) and we need him to establish himself as a regular member of what is currently a bottom 4 side. If he can't do that then I can't see him contributing much to a flag tilt. Clearly, I think we should at least hedge our bets and draft a back up plan. You seem to agree with that. Great then.
Greystache
03-10-2013, 10:55 AM
10 wins from 72 games? You mean to say that we played 72 games in total over three seasons, played top four teams in roughly 20 of those games and won 10? By my reckoning, that's a 50% w/l record. Did you actually go back and count the number of wins and losses against top four sides or are you pulling figures out of the air? I think you're correct in saying that we performed far worse against top four sides, but the figure you gave is misleading.
You have to note that in 2010 we had Barry, one of the best key forwards in the league - even then.
I saw it quoted that under Eade we played 72 games against top 4 teams and won 10- That's 13%. I haven't broken it down further over seasons.
The point of my post was our dysfunctional forward line against top 4 teams in finals. The 0-6 record and goal average are exact.
Scorlibo
03-10-2013, 10:55 AM
The thing is you have to though. Same games, same goals, same team, same era.
The reason Riewoldt is more important is because he is a KPP which gives him more dimensions as a player. If Milne could take courageous pack marks thing might be different. Would Riewoldt be a champion of the game if he was 8cm smaller?
They have both contributed equally as a goal scoring forward, one is tall, one is small. I'd take both players of that quality, but the big one first.
You're reducing a forward's contribution to how many goals they kick. By that logic, Lockett was 187% the player that Carey was because he kicked 1360 goals to Carey's 727.
Brad Johnson is a champion of the game and he was about 12cm smaller than Roo.
soupman
03-10-2013, 10:57 AM
How is it silly???
Milne has played 275 games for 574 goals
Riewoldt has played 259 games for 570 goals
Yeah, silly comparison.... Apart from being statically identical.
Because its irrelevant to the argument. The argument is not "should we have 6 smalls up forward or 6 talls", the argument is "is a star key forward the difference between winning and losing finals".
This is what Happy Days wrote:
Scorlibo is right, KPFs are overrated.
I'm not saying that they're not valuable, they are! Its just that they're no more valuable than a gun anything else.
I agree with this.
There is no one saying that we don't need key forwards, and no one is saying don't get one. We all realise that key forwards are valuable, and can be matchwinners, but finals have shown that you don't require a gun key forward to perform on the day to win, as demonstrated in Happy Days examples.
We would have stood an even better chance if St. Kilda didn't have Riewoldt. Riewoldt was BOG and kicked 4 in 08. In 09 he kicks 3 and is BOG again. Key forward the difference in 2 of our prelim losses.
Yep. But who is to say he was the difference and Lenny Hayes wasn't? And we would have been a much worse chance if we removed Brian Lake, or Ryan Griffen.
I maintain that even if we don't get a Patton, and are left developing with just guys like Campbell and Jones that we can still be premiership contenders. They don't need to be stars if they are surrounded with other quality players, which I believe we have. They just have to play their role.
The reason Riewoldt was such a big influence on St.Kilda is because they built their side around him. Now as long as we don't build our side around Liam Jones then I don't think we are out of contention. Yeah it would be great if we could upgrade Jones into a Riewoldt, but equally it would be great if we could upgrade Koby Stevens into Joel Selwood.
But hey let's bang on about how we don't need talls, because these stats shows Milne is equal to Riewoldt, I'm sure St Kilda would have done just as well with 2 Milnes and no Riewoldt. We don't need talls.
Nobody has ever stated or even implied that Milne is, was or ever has been more valuable than Riewoldt, so please refrain from sidetracking the key points with stupid examples.
bulldogtragic
03-10-2013, 10:57 AM
There's an awful lot of twisting of words happening on both sides of this argument.
I don't think anyone is saying 'We don't need talls'.
Saying that Milne and Riewoldt are 'statistically identical' is simplistic and misleading.
Average disposals over career: 16.4 for Reiwoldt, 11.9 for Milne
Marks: 8.7 to 3.6
I don't have stats available for Kms run in a game, but we know who will win that one by a fair margin. The only clear advantage that Milne has is in tackling.
Look, Milne was a seriously good crumbing forward. For a player his size his goal instincts are unmatched in this era. But its not a stretch to say that a Reiwoldt/Milne comparisn
BTW, in relation to the tall/short argument, Reiwoldt is only 3cm taller than Crameri, 2cm taller than Stringer and only 1cm taller than Grant. Jones is 3cm taller.
Just sayin...
If Riewoldt was 8cm smaller he couldn't play CHF. He gets the marks because he is a KPP and has a massive frame which wouldn't get smashed in packs.
It's because he is a genuine KPP that makes him better.
If Milne and Riewoldt swapped bodies the argument would be reversed. So you must look at goals per game, because a forward pocket cannot take 5 contested marks every game. Goals per game is on the only fair comparison because Riewoldt can't do what Milne does and vice versa.
bulldogtragic
03-10-2013, 11:03 AM
You're reducing a forward's contribution to how many goals they kick. By that logic, Lockett was 187% the player that Carey was because he kicked 1360 goals to Carey's 727.
Brad Johnson is a champion of the game and he was about 12cm smaller than Roo.
Good point. There is a difference in goals between the leagues best ever full forward and CHF. Milne is the best pocket and he's 574. So I guess your point is a good full forward is better than other forward types. I'll accept that.
Scorlibo
03-10-2013, 11:04 AM
For me one player whose contribution goes largely unnoticed in that game is Travis Varcoe. Ran hard all day and flogged an unnaccountable Leon Davis.
Yep, he played a huge game. My memory from that game is of a very even spread of players at the top for Geelong. Selwood, Bartel, Varcoe, Johnson, Hawkins - they all played very impressive games and had their moments when it was their turn.
For Collingwood: Pendlebury, Thomas, daylight.
I saw it quoted that under Eade we played 72 games against top 4 teams and won 10- That's 13%. I haven't broken it down further over seasons.
The point of my post was our dysfunctional forward line against top 4 teams in finals. The 0-6 record and goal average are exact.
Fair enough. On the finals 0-6 record, for mine '08 and '10 we were simply not good enough to challenge the best. '08 we limped into the finals with a very unimpressive end to the season, '10 we only just got past Sydney in the semi. 2009 was our year and it was a case of 'not quite' both against Geelong in the QF and St Kilda in the PF. Whether Barry Hall would have made a difference in those games, I'm not so sure.
Scorlibo
03-10-2013, 11:13 AM
Good point. There is a difference in goals between the leagues best ever full forward and CHF. Milne is the best pocket and he's 574. So I guess your point is a good full forward is better than other forward types. I'll accept that.
I'm not really sure what you're getting at here.
BT, I'm with soupaman - the argument isn't whether the best forwards historically have been key forwards or small forwards, it's whether we need a gun key forward to win a premiership and moreover whether the key forward position is more important than other positions on the ground.
I contend that it's not and that players from everywhere on the ground have historically made significant contributions in premiership sides and in successful sides.
soupman
03-10-2013, 11:14 AM
Good point. There is a difference in goals between the leagues best ever full forward and CHF. Milne is the best pocket and he's 574. So I guess your point is a good full forward is better than other forward types. I'll accept that.
This depends on the type of forwardline though doesn't it?
A key forward is as valuable because of the structure they provide as they are because of the quality of player they are. Sydneys have been a good example of this, as forwardline without a star key forward but with quality forwards working around a kpp as a unit.
The bolded is only relevant when you consider goals only and only on an individual basis. When Fevola kicked 99 Carlton didn't have a forwardline that would win finals. jack Riewoldt this year another case in point.
I want a forwardline that is dangerous and will perform in finals. Lookng at our current setup and thinking how it may develop I don't think we need a gun key forward for it to work. One would help, but we are just as capable of having a finals winning forwardline with a key forward from the category beneath (ie. the good category), as long as we setup the rest of the side correctly.
bulldogtragic
03-10-2013, 11:26 AM
This depends on the type of forwardline though doesn't it?
A key forward is as valuable because of the structure they provide as they are because of the quality of player they are. Sydneys have been a good example of this, as forwardline without a star key forward but with quality forwards working around a kpp as a unit.
The bolded is only relevant when you consider goals only and only on an individual basis. When Fevola kicked 99 Carlton didn't have a forwardline that would win finals. jack Riewoldt this year another case in point.
I want a forwardline that is dangerous and will perform in finals. Lookng at our current setup and thinking how it may develop I don't think we need a gun key forward for it to work. One would help, but we are just as capable of having a finals winning forwardline with a key forward from the category beneath (ie. the good category), as long as we setup the rest of the side correctly.
I don't think we differ all that much. I'm absolutely not in the camp of selling the farm or doing 9 year deals for a KPF. But I do think history shows Premiers generally have one or two KPFs and finish top 4. Yes you can win without either, but history is what it is.
I think KPFs are worth more than another type and we should be pursuing them at all times. But what I can't accept is bringing up our last finals tilts as justification for feeling better about not having a decent KPF. We will go with what we have, but I'm firmly in the view a KPF needs to be a part of the grand plan.
Scorlibo
03-10-2013, 11:49 AM
I don't think we differ all that much. I'm absolutely not in the camp of selling the farm or doing 9 year deals for a KPF. But I do think history shows Premiers generally have one or two KPFs and finish top 4. Yes you can win without either, but history is what it is.
I think KPFs are worth more than another type and we should be pursuing them at all times. But what I can't accept is bringing up our last finals tilts as justification for feeling better about not having a decent KPF. We will go with what we have, but I'm firmly in the view a KPF needs to be a part of the grand plan.
No one is saying that you don't need someone to play that role. To have players on your team playing as marking targets is non-negotiable. But do we settle with Liam Jones or Tom Campbell with another three okay marking targets in Crameri, Grant and Stringer or do we go out of our way to get a gun?
The last 3 pages in this thread have been about showing that in tight finals, gun key forwards have been at most only as influential as gun midfielders, defenders and general forwards.
You keep on saying 'a' KPF BT, we have many players who can play that role.
Happy Days
03-10-2013, 12:02 PM
How is it silly???
Milne has played 275 games for 574 goals
Riewoldt has played 259 games for 570 goals
Yeah, silly comparison.... Apart from being statically identical.
Anyway, I'd take Riewoldt despite history showing them equal as goal kickers.
But hey let's bang on about how we don't need talls, because these stats shows Milne is equal to Riewoldt, I'm sure St Kilda would have done just as well with 2 Milnes and no Riewoldt. We don't need talls.
Man I just didn't word my point like this.
Happy Days
03-10-2013, 12:03 PM
I saw it quoted that under Eade we played 72 games against top 4 teams and won 10- That's 13%. I haven't broken it down further over seasons.
The point of my post was our dysfunctional forward line against top 4 teams in finals. The 0-6 record and goal average are exact.
I think we shit the bed more often than not in finals, rather than it being due to no good talls.
bulldogtragic
03-10-2013, 12:08 PM
No one is saying that you don't need someone to play that role. To have players on your team playing as marking targets is non-negotiable. But do we settle with Liam Jones or Tom Campbell with another three okay marking targets in Crameri, Grant and Stringer or do we go out of our way to get a gun?
The last 3 pages in this thread have been about showing that in tight finals, gun key forwards have been at most only as influential as gun midfielders, defenders and general forwards.
You keep on saying 'a' KPF BT, we have many players who can play that role.
I loved Jones since I saw his first 10 minutes in his first VFL ressies match. He's a tall target and when he doesn't run under the ball, is an excellent mark. But he's not a goal kicker for mine.
Campbell is still too raw to rule out getting someone else. He could very well continue to develop next year, but I won't bet the farm on it just yet, and if Will goes down he's number 1 ruck next year, not FF. And Williams just can't be relied on to be fit.
Grant, Higgins, Gia and others play small. Stringer and Crameri are earmarked to play midfield in future years, which will be awesome, and Cordy went backwards this year.
So I think we are short a really good KPF, ie not Gumbleton etc, etc.
I would "go out of our way" for a gun, yes, if we could get one. I think they're worth their weight in gold and will make us even more dangerous. I wouldn't sell the farm, but I would support the club in aggressively prising a serious goal kicker off a club at some expense.
Scorlibo
03-10-2013, 12:31 PM
I loved Jones since I saw his first 10 minutes in his first VFL ressies match. He's a tall target and when he doesn't run under the ball, is an excellent mark. But he's not a goal kicker for mine.
Campbell is still too raw to rule out getting someone else. He could very well continue to develop next year, but I won't bet the farm on it just yet, and if Will goes down he's number 1 ruck next year, not FF. And Williams just can't be relied on to be fit.
Grant, Higgins, Gia and others play small. Stringer and Crameri are earmarked to play midfield in future years, which will be awesome, and Cordy went backwards this year.
So I think we are short a really good KPF, ie not Gumbleton etc, etc.
I would "go out of our way" for a gun, yes, if we could get one. I think they're worth their weight in gold and will make us even more dangerous. I wouldn't sell the farm, but I would support the club in aggressively prising a serious goal kicker off a club at some expense.
I don't think this is a black and white kind of thing. Grant takes a lot of marks on the lead when he's on - that's one half of being a marking forward. He then pops up and takes contested marks every now and then too so for mine he's quite an underrated aerialist. Certainly I wouldn't say that he plays small.
On Stringer and Crameri, they'll play where we need them to play. At this stage, I can't envisage Stringer being a full-time midfielder. He will be more of a Pavlich type for mine (not suggesting he will be as good) where he plays a key role in the forward line and has some bursts in the midfield. I haven't heard Crameri mentioned in the same sentence as midfield before you mentioned it, I would have thought a player whose greatest strength is his goal kicking nous would be more likely to play in the forward line than midfield.
We've already got a great young midfield - no room for Stringer and Crameri!
westdog54
03-10-2013, 12:39 PM
I don't think this is a black and white kind of thing. Grant takes a lot of marks on the lead when he's on - that's one half of being a marking forward. He then pops up and takes contested marks every now and then too so for mine he's quite an underrated aerialist. Certainly I wouldn't say that he plays small.
On Stringer and Crameri, they'll play where we need them to play. At this stage, I can't envisage Stringer being a full-time midfielder. He will be more of a Pavlich type for mine (not suggesting he will be as good) where he plays a key role in the forward line and has some bursts in the midfield. I haven't heard Crameri mentioned in the same sentence as midfield before you mentioned it, I would have thought a player whose greatest strength is his goal kicking nous would be more likely to play in the forward line than midfield.
We've already got a great young midfield - no room for Stringer and Crameri!
Do we have a great midfield? Yes.
Should we rule out throwing these two in there at times? Absolutely not.
Sometimes plans C and D mean that you throw a wrecking ball into the middle.
Stringer and Crameri are wrecking balls with skill.
Scorlibo
03-10-2013, 12:54 PM
Do we have a great midfield? Yes.
Should we rule out throwing these two in there at times? Absolutely not.
Sometimes plans C and D mean that you throw a wrecking ball into the middle.
Stringer and Crameri are wrecking balls with skill.
I agree, like I said, I see Stringer as an impact/burst player through the middle but mainly resting up forward. Crameri the same but more time forward.
1eyedog
03-10-2013, 02:37 PM
[QUOTE]Presuming you're talking about '09 and '10... Roo kicked 4 but of those 4, one was gifted to him with the softest free kick I've witnessed live and the other was a lucky toe-poke touched (by Harbrow IIRC) but given a goal. Take those two away and he's kicked 2 goals and had a good game without being 'the difference' by any stretch of the imagination.
I disagree. I was also at the game at Lake was nervous about Riewoldt all night. It was actually Riewoldt's big pack mark that put them in front by a point with 3 minutes left that was the decider. After having all the momentum for the first 20 minutes of the last quarter we couldn't touch it after then and when Gia missed a golden opportunity we were done for. Riewoldt's toe poke sealed the deal but it wasn't needed because we were done.
You think that Buddy Franklin is worth Gary Ablett and Scott Pendlebury
No to Ablett, he's a 1 in 50 years footballer. I would give up Michael Tuck and John Platten for Jason Dunstall though. I would also give up any midfield combination that Tony Lockett played with for Tony Lockett. I would give up Swan and Pendlebury for KT in his prime or Carey and I would give up Akermanis or Voss / Lappin for Jon Brown.
Nick Riewoldt = Lenny Hayes and Brendon Goddard circa 2010?
That's a close one in my books. I am trying to get across that gun forwards and so much rarer than gun mids. I would take Tom Boyd over both Aish and Scharenberg I reckon. Mids can be found (drafted/traded) later, try trading for a gun key forward, doesn't happen any more.
Tom Hawkins played well in that Grand Final but so did many others and you could just as easily pick out moments from other players that, if they hadn't have happened, one could say "well that won them the Grand Final".
No one but Tom Hawkins won those one on one contests against Reid and kicked those goals. Again, without him it is a 50/50 contest, for mine he turned the game.
LostDoggy
03-10-2013, 04:48 PM
Great post - agree with all of it^^^^
Very good-great forwards turn games on their heads, create shock and awe in the opposition much more readily than great mids in my opinion. There is no doubt you need a good engine room; we've got that. We need at least one 30-40 goal forward on top of Crameri for mine. I still like the look of Harvey this draft if we may no other trading plays. Otherwise, as others have pointed out, you would hope we would be in the hunt for one of the strong tall timber likely to shine for next years draft.
Scorlibo
03-10-2013, 06:11 PM
I disagree. I was also at the game at Lake was nervous about Riewoldt all night. It was actually Riewoldt's big pack mark that put them in front by a point with 3 minutes left that was the decider. After having all the momentum for the first 20 minutes of the last quarter we couldn't touch it after then and when Gia missed a golden opportunity we were done for. Riewoldt's toe poke sealed the deal but it wasn't needed because we were done.
No to Ablett, he's a 1 in 50 years footballer. I would give up Michael Tuck and John Platten for Jason Dunstall though. I would also give up any midfield combination that Tony Lockett played with for Tony Lockett. I would give up Swan and Pendlebury for KT in his prime or Carey and I would give up Akermanis or Voss / Lappin for Jon Brown.
That's a close one in my books. I am trying to get across that gun forwards and so much rarer than gun mids. I would take Tom Boyd over both Aish and Scharenberg I reckon. Mids can be found (drafted/traded) later, try trading for a gun key forward, doesn't happen any more.
Rough top ten key forwards in the competition:
Taylor Walker - NSW Scholarship Selection
Travis Cloke - F/S
Jeremy Cameron - under age recruit
Lance Franklin - #5
Drew Petrie - #23
Jack Riewoldt - #13
Nick Riewoldt - #1
Kurt Tippett - #32
Josh Kennedy - #4
Jarryd Roughead - #2
Rough top ten midfielders in the competition:
Gary Ablett - F/S
Scott Pendlebury - #5
Dane Swan - Rookie
Joel Selwood - #7
Patrick Dangerfield - #10
Chris Judd - #3
Jobe Watson - F/S
Ryan Griffen - #3
Nathan Fyfe - #20
Kieren Jack - Rookie
It's just as difficult to get elite midfielders outside of the first round.
Your comparisons aren't fair for mine, you're picking key forwards who are legends of the game then comparing them to the best midfielders of today's game.
If it's Carey for Ablett jnr. and Chris Judd then I'll take the latter in a heartbeat. Those two together would launch any side into the top 4, Carey depends on the midfield and defence supporting him.
Happy Days
04-10-2013, 01:23 AM
I want to avoid going in circles here but just on Hawkins, the GF was his first good game ever. Besides the point, is him taking over the game any more valuable than Stevie J or Bartel taking over the game as occurred in their other flags?
1eyedog
04-10-2013, 09:12 AM
It's just as difficult to get elite midfielders outside of the first round.
Yes but what I am saying is that they are more readily available (i.e. there are more of them). I would have classed Pendles, Swan and Beams as elite with Sidebottom and Wellingham close behind. That's a pack of elite or near elite mids right there at one club. How many elite KPP has Collingwood got? One.
Same with the Saints and Riewoldt and all of Hayes, Dal Santo, Montagna, Goddard.
Same with Richo and all the mids that ran through the middle of Richmond during his 12 year tenure.
Key forwards are like endangered animals, they're important, valuable and significant because they're rare.
Your comparisons aren't fair for mine, you're picking key forwards who are legends of the game then comparing them to the best midfielders of today's game.
Perhaps I skewed it. But my Boyd for Scharenberg and Aish arguement stands and so does my Voss/Lappin for Jon Brown argument - which is a valid example. I would wager Dane Swan will be a Collingwood legend and one of the best players of the past 30 years when he retires. He may well win another Brownlow also as he is always close. Dual Brownlow medalists go down in history.
If it's Carey for Ablett jnr. and Chris Judd then I'll take the latter in a heartbeat. Those two together would launch any side into the top 4, Carey depends on the midfield and defence supporting him.
Ablett Jnr will be the best the game has seen so now your making an unfair comparison. I would take Ablett Snr over any other two midfielders you could name though, probably Carey too.
Scorlibo
04-10-2013, 11:21 AM
Yes but what I am saying is that they are more readily available (i.e. there are more of them). I would have classed Pendles, Swan and Beams as elite with Sidebottom and Wellingham close behind. That's a pack of elite or near elite mids right there at one club. How many elite KPP has Collingwood got? One.
There are 2 KPF spots on the ground compared to 6 midfield spots, so of course elite midfielders are going to be more prevalent, that doesn't make them any less important.
I'd argue that truly elite midfielders are hard to come by. We have one in Griffen, many clubs don't have any. Collingwood as you've said have 2 and sometimes 3 when Beams isn't injured. Swan and Pendlebury have held Collingwood together over the last 5 years, their winning record when Pendlebury and Swan both perform is nothing less than formidable - they're one of the great combinations in football. Don't underestimate how rare it is for one club to have two elite midfielders of a similar age. West Coast was a powerful side circa 2006 because Judd, Cousins and Kerr were a trio of elite midfielders. Richmond are now beginning to reap rewards for consistently drafting midfielders with early picks. Very successful sides have great midfields.
Same with the Saints and Riewoldt and all of Hayes, Dal Santo, Montagna, Goddard.
You've picked out two very successful sides - coincidence?
Same with Richo and all the mids that ran through the middle of Richmond during his 12 year tenure.
Not sure which mids you're talking about. They had Wayne Campbell and Matthew Knights in the nineties, each of those players elevated themselves to elite status for a year or two. Beyond that, Kane Johnson stands out as their best mid and he was never elite.
Perhaps I skewed it. But my Boyd for Scharenberg and Aish arguement stands and so does my Voss/Lappin for Jon Brown argument - which is a valid example. I would wager Dane Swan will be a Collingwood legend and one of the best players of the past 30 years when he retires. He may well win another Brownlow also as he is always close. Dual Brownlow medalists go down in history.
It's up to you I suppose. Myself - I wouldn't give up Voss by himself for Jonathan Brown. Lappin maybe, Black no. Lynch was the primary key forward during their threepeat anyway.
Ablett Jnr will be the best the game has seen so now your making an unfair comparison. I would take Ablett Snr over any other two midfielders you could name though, probably Carey too.
Ablett jnr is a contemporary player, being compared to other contemporary players.
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