What are the odds

[BulldogBelle]

Looks like it is a bit quiet on the board. Lets look at some bookies odds.
These below are from Betfair, IAS Sportsbet and TABOZbet.

Premiers
Fremantle .. 4.2 to 5.4
Sydney ..... 4.7 to 5.7
Hawthorn ... 5.0 to 5.3
Western Bul 101 to 200

The biggest odds are usually from Betfair but usually for small outlays (less than $15). I did get odds of 300 to 1 on the Bulldogs being premiers, but that's gone now.

Make the Top 8
Fremantle .. 1.1 to 1.1
Sydney ..... 1.1 to 1.1
Hawthorn .. 1.1 to 1.1
Geelong .... 1.2 to 1.2
Western Bul 4.0 to 5.2

Best odds I could get for the Bullies was 8's. But not much taken.


Grand Final Quinella
Haw & Freo .. 7.8 to 8.0
Geel & Haw .. 8 to 9.8
Freo & Syd ... 9.8 to 10.0
Geel & Syd .. 11 to 12
Western Bul ?

Not even a market for the Western Bulldogs. If you could pick a quinella you would be wanting odds of close to 1000 to 1.


Wooden Spoon
GWS .......... 2.0 to 2.0
Melbourne .. 3.0 to 3.5
St Kilda ...... 3.5 to 4.5
Essendon ... 19.0 to 21.0
Western Bull 21.0 to 50.0

Look at the odds for Essendon. Bookies taking into consideration possible suspensions.


Brownlow
Ablett ...... 7.0 to 8.6
Pendels ... 10 to 10
Selwood .. 10 to 13.5
Dangerfie. 11 to 14
Ryan Griff 23 to 36
Libba ...... 80 to 81
Mat Boyd . 81 to 170
A Cooney . 81 to 220

I managed to get Libba at 130 and 120 to 1. But he has now firmed right in. Look at Matthew Boyd, The Bookies give him some chance.

Rising Star Award
Jack Martin ...... 5.5 to 5.7
Brodie Grundy . 10 to 11
Jesse Hogan .... 12 to 14
Mitch Grigg ...... 12 to 15
Jake Stringer ... 12 to 17
Jed Anderson ... 14 to 15
Nathan Hrovat .. 14 to 15.5
Lachie Hunter ... 26 to 27
M Bontempelli ... 40 to 41

The Punters know about Nathan Hrovat and Jake Stringer and have them among the favorites. We have a lot of highly rated youngsters.

First match Bulldogs vs Westcoast in Perth.
Bulldogs ... 2.6 to 3.15


Can anybody find better odds around the place? Nice to see how the opinions move as we get further into the pre-season.

[BulldogBelle]

The first match vs Westcoast in Perth

We beat them in our last encounter. It was round 18 at the Docklands and we won by 22 points. They didn't have Glass, Nic Nat, Le Cras and a few others but it was a game they had to win as they were still hopeful to make the finals series.

This is our team from that match:

Addison, Dylan
Boyd, Matthew
Cooney, Adam
Dahlhaus, Luke
Dickson, Tory
Giansiracusa, Daniel
Grant, Jarrad
Griffen, Ryan
Hunter, Lachie
Jones, Liam
Liberatore, Tom
Macrae, Jack
Minson, Will
Morris, Dale
Murphy, Robert
Picken, Liam
Roughead, Jordan
Stevens, Koby
Talia, Michael
Tutt, Jason
Wallis, Mitch
Young, Tom

Addison Kicked 2, Grant 3 and Dolly 4. Cooney, Griffen, Libba, Wallis, Murph and Stevens were all dominant. Minson played well.

The only one out of selection possibility is Addison who has been delisted. We also have the following players who will be vying for a spot:

Higgins
Williams
Goodes
JJ
Cordy
Campbell
Hrovat
Stringer
Bonte
Fuller
Wood

Its a long way to go to round 1 and we may even see one of our players not mentioned above vie for a spot.

So far, I'm thinking that odds of $3.15 are pretty good.

[DragzLS1]

The first match vs Westcoast in Perth

We beat them in our last encounter. It was round 18 at the Docklands and we won by 22 points. They didn't have Glass, Nic Nat, Le Cras and a few others but it was a game they had to win as they were still hopeful to make the finals series.

This is our team from that match:

Addison, Dylan
Boyd, Matthew
Cooney, Adam
Dahlhaus, Luke
Dickson, Tory
Giansiracusa, Daniel
Grant, Jarrad
Griffen, Ryan
Hunter, Lachie
Jones, Liam
Liberatore, Tom
Macrae, Jack
Minson, Will
Morris, Dale
Murphy, Robert
Picken, Liam
Roughead, Jordan
Stevens, Koby
Talia, Michael
Tutt, Jason
Wallis, Mitch
Young, Tom

Addison Kicked 2, Grant 3 and Dolly 4. Cooney, Griffen, Libba, Wallis, Murph and Stevens were all dominant. Minson played well.

The only one out of selection possibility is Addison who has been delisted. We also have the following players who will be vying for a spot:

Higgins
Williams
Goodes
JJ
Cordy
Campbell
Hrovat
Stringer
Bonte
Fuller
Wood

Its a long way to go to round 1 and we may even see one of our players not mentioned above vie for a spot.

So far, I'm thinking that odds of $3.15 are pretty good.


Ill take anything over $3. If the line is over 30 then ill be all over it.

Getting on Libba and Griffen for brownlow for usre ;)

Hrovat and Stringer for rising stars with a little hedge on Jack Martin

[LostDoggy]

If the hype is accurate, any odds higher than $1.05 for Jack Martin as Rising Star are a bargain. If the Rising Star was decided on anything other than what game Sheehan watched this week, perhaps Stringer and the Rat would be worth a look. I see it as about equivalent to the Herald Sun Player Of The Year Award. The process is so corrupted it's amazing we're allowed to bet on it.

On the Brownlow, Libba's odds are very attractive, might have a crack at that price.

The match in Perth? It's in Perth. Round 1. $3.15 is too low IMHO, we're going to struggle to beat them there. If the odds get to about $5-6 I'll have a bite.

[KT31]

If the hype is accurate, any odds higher than $1.05 for Jack Martin as Rising Star are a bargain. If the Rising Star was decided on anything other than what game Sheehan watched this week, perhaps Stringer and the Rat would be worth a look. I see it as about equivalent to the Herald Sun Player Of The Year Award. The process is so corrupted it's amazing we're allowed to bet on it.

On the Brownlow, Libba's odds are very attractive, might have a crack at that price.

The match in Perth? It's in Perth. Round 1. $3.15 is too low IMHO, we're going to struggle to beat them there. If the odds get to about $5-6 I'll have a bite.

Our preseason form will most likely dictate a rise or fall in our odds.

[ledge]

Our preseason form will most likely dictate a rise or fall in our odds.

And West Coasts as well

[Scraggers]

Our preseason form will most likely dictate a rise or fall in our odds.


And West Coasts as well


West Coast's first game under a new coach too.

[DragzLS1]

We may come out flying you never know. I think west coast game is too unpredictable actually. I would rather get on us against the tigers and north.. Think we got a great chance against them. How many retired from west coast this year?

Libba for brownlow im all over it!

[Bulldog Joe]

We may come out flying you never know. I think west coast game is too unpredictable actually. I would rather get on us against the tigers and north.. Think we got a great chance against them. How many retired from west coast this year?

Libba for brownlow im all over it!

I would rate our chances against North as much lower than West Coast.

We do have to back up from a late finish in Perth while North have an extra 2 days for recovery. Young teams struggle with that turnaround.

[Scraggers]

We may come out flying you never know. I think west coast game is too unpredictable actually. I would rather get on us against the tigers and north.. Think we got a great chance against them. How many retired from west coast this year?

Libba for brownlow im all over it!

Daniel Kerr
Andrew Embley
Mark Nicoski
Adam Selwood

That's all I can think of from the top of my head ... there may be one other

[boydogs]

Daniel Kerr
Andrew Embley
Mark Nicoski
Adam Selwood

That's all I can think of from the top of my head ... there may be one other

http://www.afl.com.au/news/features/retirements-and-delistings

On a side note, interesting that we had the fewest list changes of any team this year, despite finishing bottom 4

[Remi Moses]

Early doors, but weather will play a part.
Usually pretty hot until about May in Perth

[DragzLS1]

Daniel Kerr
Andrew Embley
Mark Nicoski
Adam Selwood

That's all I can think of from the top of my head ... there may be one other


Hrmm not liking our chances on such a big ground we usually get sliced up. We just seem to like playing north who I think may be a top 6 side, which doesnt mean we cant beat them.

[LostDoggy]

Daniel Kerr
Andrew Embley
Mark Nicoski
Adam Selwood

That's all I can think of from the top of my head ... there may be one other

No Josh Kennedy in that list? Damn. We be hard up.

[BulldogBelle]

Here are some statistics on last year's Brownlow Medal place-getters. Some stats are indicative of how well they played for the year, not necessarily how well they played in their Brownlow vote-getting games.

The number after their name is the odds just prior to the Brownlow count. The number in brackets is the odds prior to the season start. What they show quite clearly s that if you want to get the best odds. Get on now, if you wait then the odds will shorten. All the matter of what you like at the moment.

1. Gary Ablett - 1.70 (9.00)
28 Votes
Age 29
Games: 21
Wins 8
Disposals / game: 31
Goals: 28
2. Joel Selwood - 4.75 (31.00)
27 votes
Age 25
Games: 22
Wins 18
Disposals / game: 25
Goals: 28
3. Dane Swan - 13.00 (11.00)
26 votes
Age 30
Games 20
Wins 14
Disposals / game: 31
Goals: 22
4. Patrick Dangerfield - 51.00 (11.00)
22 votes
Age 23
Games: 20
Wins 10
Disposals / game: 23
Goals: 31
5. Scott Pendlebury - 12.00 (13.00)
21 Votes
Age 26
Games: 22
Wins 14
Disposals / game: 30
Goals: 18
5. Daniel Hannebery - 67.00
21 Votes
Age 23
Games 21
Wins 15.5
Disposals / game 25
Goals 9
5. Tom Rockliff - 41.00
21 votes
Age 24
Games 21
Wins 10
Disposals / game 27
Goals 7
8. Trent Cotchin - 51.00 (9.00)
19 Votes
Age 23
Games 21
Wins 15
Disposals / game 26
Goals 4
8. Kieran Jack - 36.00 (51.00)
19 Votes
Age 26
Games: 22
Wins 15.5
Disposals / game: 25
Goals: 22
10. Jobe Watson - 67.00
17 Votes
Age 29
Games 19
Wins 14
Disposals / game 28
Goals 16
11. Sam Mitchell - 6.00 (17.00)
16 Votes
Age 31
Games: 21
Wins 19
Disposals / game: 28
Goals: 5
11. Dustin Martin 101.00
16 Votes
Age 22
Games 22
Wins 15
Disposals / game 24
Goals 22
11. David Mundy 125.00
16 Votes
Age 28
Games 19
Wins 16.5
Disposals / game 24
Goals 7
14. Luke Hodge 100.00
15 Votes
Age 29
Games 20
Wins 19
Disposals / game 22
Goals 11
14. Rory Sloane 151.00
15 Votes
Age 23
Games
Wins 10
Disposals / game 24
Goals 12
16. Ryan Griffen 41.00 (101.00)
14 Votes
Age 27
Games 20
Wins 8
Disposals / game: 29
Goals: 14
16. Tom Liberatore
14 Votes
Age 21
Games 22
Wins 8
Disposals / game: 26
Goals: 3
16. Michael Barlow - 31.00 (126.00)
14 Votes
Age 26
Games 21
Wins 16
Disposals / game 27
Goals 10
16. Andrew Swallow
14 Votes
Age 26
Games 17
Wins 10
Disposals / game 24
Goals 2
16. Josh P Kennedy -
14 Votes
Age 25
Games 22
Wins 15.5
Disposals / game 27
Goals 13

The bookies got the odds about right at the end.

Looks like the Brownlow is becoming a midfielder-only medal nowadays. None of the high goal-kickers got anywhere. Also some high possession-getters such as Jarrad McVeigh and Matthew stokes got nowhere. X-factor players such as Goddard, Franklyn, Roughhead, Steve Johnson and Nathan Fyffe also had relatively few votes.

You can see that Ablett opened up at 9.00 in October 2012. Not long after the season started and after some great games , his odds were slashed. Ablett was the red-hot favourite with Selwood given some chance, and that's how it panned out. Such is not always the case though, for example when Cooney won his medal I don't think he was in the first couple of favourites. I got onto Cooney very early in the piece at 120-1 or there-abouts and came home with a wad of fifties I couldn't wrap my hand around.

We have a small membership base and less people will therefore bet on our players and this will keep the odds high, this will also be true of the odds for regular matches. This is to our advantage.

If you like Libba, I would get on him now. Do you notice something special about Libba. There is something special about him isn't there.

[Maddog37]

Stevie J got quite a few votes but was ineligible wasn't he?

[BulldogBelle]

Stevie J got quite a few votes but was ineligible wasn't he?

Yes, my bad. He was in fact one of the leaders but he was ineligible.

[DragzLS1]

The more and more I review Libbas season the more I want to back him in. He is the typical inside mid that just beats his opponent and never stops trying. His skills are first class and even though he doesnt have that explosive Griffen like speed, he gets the job done week in week out.

He will be our number 1 vote getter this season if he backs it up (which I think he will).

Getting on Libba but not at $51/1, there are better odds out there. TAB are a rip off but if you call to tell them about another bookies odds, they can sometimes match it ;) heres to Libba at $81/1

[always right]

Speaking of "what are the odds?"........sad story with the name of the alleged offender a little close for comfort.


A TEENAGER charged with murdering homeless man Wayne "Mousey" Perry has appeared in court for the first time.

Easton Woodhead, 19, faced the Melbourne Magistrates Court this morning charged over the alleged killing dressed in a blue police-issued jumpsuit


http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/law-order/teenager-charged-with-killing-homeless-man-wayne-mousey-perry-appears-in-court/story-fni0fee2-1226796530001

[Remi Moses]

Speaking of "what are the odds?"........sad story with the name of the alleged offender a little close for comfort.


A TEENAGER charged with murdering homeless man Wayne "Mousey" Perry has appeared in court for the first time.

Easton Woodhead, 19, faced the Melbourne Magistrates Court this morning charged over the alleged killing dressed in a blue police-issued jumpsuit


http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/law-order/teenager-charged-with-killing-homeless-man-wayne-mousey-perry-appears-in-court/story-fni0fee2-1226796530001

I can feel a "poor little rich boy sentence coming on"
How gutless

[Eastdog]

Speaking of "what are the odds?"........sad story with the name of the alleged offender a little close for comfort.


A TEENAGER charged with murdering homeless man Wayne "Mousey" Perry has appeared in court for the first time.

Easton Woodhead, 19, faced the Melbourne Magistrates Court this morning charged over the alleged killing dressed in a blue police-issued jumpsuit


http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/law-order/teenager-charged-with-killing-homeless-man-wayne-mousey-perry-appears-in-court/story-fni0fee2-1226796530001

Terrible news.

[BornInDroopSt'54]

Our preseason form will most likely dictate a rise or fall in our odds.

You're only as good as your last game.
The woman in many offices who knows nothing about footy but usually wins the footy tipping, uses this principle.

[westdog54]

Speaking of "what are the odds?"........sad story with the name of the alleged offender a little close for comfort.


A TEENAGER charged with murdering homeless man Wayne "Mousey" Perry has appeared in court for the first time.

Easton Woodhead, 19, faced the Melbourne Magistrates Court this morning charged over the alleged killing dressed in a blue police-issued jumpsuit


http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/law-order/teenager-charged-with-killing-homeless-man-wayne-mousey-perry-appears-in-court/story-fni0fee2-1226796530001

Guys,

Can't see how this is relevant to the thread or appropriate for discussion.

[DragzLS1]

Guys,

Can't see how this is relevant to the thread or appropriate for discussion.


Not even close to being relevant.

On a brighter note, I will be trying to multi north into the 8 and saints for the spoon. Just dont jump on it yet until I get on it :p

[Eastdog]

Guys,

Can't see how this is relevant to the thread or appropriate for discussion.

Agree WD54. Very sad story but not revelant to the thread.