Membership and Match Attendances 1997-2013

[LostDoggy]

Hi guys,

With WAY too much time on my hands, and inspired by some of the threads over the past few days, I've run some stats on our average match day attendance, both for home and away games, compared to the overall AFL average. I've laid this graph over our final ladder position for that year (bear in mind we went from 16 to 18 teams so it skews slightly from 2010 onwards) and I've also entered in the membership figures.

http://www.simplicitywebdesign.com.au/docs/WB-Match-Attendances-1997-2013.jpg

The solid grey in the background represents our ladder position, the blue line home game average, the red away game average. The green is the AFL average and the purple bars are our membership figures, which very conveniently fit in the same scale.

You can see the attendances fluctuating with the ladder form, not surprisingly, but there are some interesting points to note:


Whilst we built up from a very low base in the post-1996 era, and enjoyed a better turn-out during the 2006-2010 years, we are now sliding back towards that low, if the current trend continues.
Whilst obviously the average away attendance factors in games against Collingwood, Essendon, etc. I do think it's telling that we've never exceeded it, ever, in a year.
Whilst attendance has dropped during this rebuild period, the membership hasn't dropped as far. That's comforting in one way, but one must wonder where these fans are? They attended from 2008-10, but aren't coming now. Endless debates about scheduling aside, I think the fair weather comments may bear fruit.


What do you guys think? (Other than that I need a hobby)

[bulldogtragic]

Thank You.

I'll read this now, but that's a great contribution to our little board. :)

Edit: great analysis.

First things it looks like our membership hasn't moved greatly in the raw numbers between 2007 to now. This is a problem after 7 years with moderate success and exciting things happening, it's a problem.

Whilst I imagine subconsciously I knew our hone games weren't being supported, to see it like that is a reflection that as a movement of people, we are not doing enough beyond those who are members. To never get above the away is very concerning, I imagine when we get the draw every year the AFL give them a graph like this.

Whilst it shows some 'bandwagon' effect, it's not statistical important enough to explain our circumstances I don't think. I think if it was another 3,000 to 5,000 more than these figures represent I think we could say when the wheel turns on field we will get a solid injection of membership and gate receipts. On these numbers I wouldn't bet the house on this being enough to change anything.

Thanks again!

[Webby]

A little known fact is that the Dogs posted both the highest membership and the highest overall attendances in the VFL in 1955. Success certainly does put bums on seats. People go to the footy for an outlet. It's far more pleasant to forget the weekly woes by watching a winning team than a losing team. It's just human nature.

Over time, if your team provides you with additional frustrations to your 9 to 5 job etc. you'll probably find other outlets on your weekends. It's just human nature. Nonetheless, we're not the smallest club going around. We have more 'fans' than both North and Melbourne - despite having 1 flag to their combined 16 or so. Our fan to member conversion ratio is not great, so we do have upside there.... We just need to start winning!

[Nuggety Back Pocket]

A little known fact is that the Dogs posted both the highest membership and the highest overall attendances in the VFL in 1955. Success certainly does put bums on seats. People go to the footy for an outlet. It's far more pleasant to forget the weekly woes by watching a winning team than a losing team. It's just human nature.

Over time, if your team provides you with additional frustrations to your 9 to 5 job etc. you'll probably find other outlets on your weekends. It's just human nature. Nonetheless, we're not the smallest club going around. We have more 'fans' than both North and Melbourne - despite having 1 flag to their combined 16 or so. Our fan to member conversion ratio is not great, so we do have upside there.... We just need to start winning!

I have thoroughly enjoyed your research on our membership base as compared to other AFL Clubs. Traditionally clubs such as Collingwood Carlton Essendon and Richmond for the most part have had a strong membership base now joined by Hawthorn and Geelong given their sustained success since the 70/80's period.
I wonder whether the poor facilities at the Western Oval as we knew it, the move to Optus and the expected financial windfall which never occurred at Etihad hasn't hampered our progress.
Collingwood and Hawthorn have gone from strength to strength since moving to the 'G'.
The WB also struggle to attract the best from other Clubs. Hall and Akermanis were draw cards but came too late. Hawthorn by comparison have been exceptional.
The likes of Ottens Mooney Burgoyne Goddard Franklin etc were always going to Clubs that have a different appeal. Crameri was a good get but still a work in progress.
Your analysis is correct in so far that it is only through a sustained period of success leading to a premiership ultimately that will see any significant increase in memberships.

[Scorlibo]

Can't believe I missed this thread a couple of weeks back - great stuff BAS, much appreciated! With a bit more success those attendance figures will head back up.

[bornadog]

A little known fact is that the Dogs posted both the highest membership and the highest overall attendances in the VFL in 1955. Success certainly does put bums on seats. People go to the footy for an outlet. It's far more pleasant to forget the weekly woes by watching a winning team than a losing team. It's just human nature.

Over time, if your team provides you with additional frustrations to your 9 to 5 job etc. you'll probably find other outlets on your weekends. It's just human nature. Nonetheless, we're not the smallest club going around. We have more 'fans' than both North and Melbourne - despite having 1 flag to their combined 16 or so. Our fan to member conversion ratio is not great, so we do have upside there.... We just need to start winning!

Too bad we screwed it up by not being successful in the 60's and people just dropping off like flies.

[The Pie Man]

Great thread!

32K members in 2010 - win the pre-season comp with Barry Hall kicking 7 and we all thought we were going to the big dance didn't we?

Too big a drop in attendance figures - any thought I might have had that scheduling like Sunday twilight has an impact is countered with 17K turning up on a sunny Sunday afternoon to watch us play the Crows a fortnight ago. With figures like that, we'll stay irrelevant until we're in the 8 regularly again. Long game to play

[LostDoggy]

Sundays, generally, suck to be scheduled on and we have a plethora this year.

This analysis gives me hope that when we get good again our attendances will rise.

It's only via sustained success we will gain new members or supporters to grow with. I suspect our membership is dying off year by year or is at risk of doing so shortly.

I'd be very interested to see a graph that showed average member age since 1980 to now.

[LostDoggy]

Love the graph, what tool did you create it with?

Memberships are a positive but Sunday twilight games are killing us.

[Webby]

Too bad we screwed it up by not being successful in the 60's and people just dropping off like flies.

Correct, however a few things contributed to that in the years around our flag. The west becoming a hub for chemicals along with mass population turnover in the area, along with a fall off of support from our VFA glory years. We won nine or so flags in a 27 year stretch 30-57 years prior to '54, so many of that glut of success-driven supporters were literally dying off!

I know many Vietnamese and, apart from a few, most just aren't into Aussie Rules. That said, there are peaks and troughs for all footy clubs. If you'd told the average man in the 1940's that mighty Fitzroy would be dead within 50 years and the basket case, Hawthorn, a powerhouse, you'd have been ridiculed! If the lowest attended club in the league at that point, Geelong, were singled out for a bright future, it'd have raised eyebrows, whilst if you'd predicted the other basket case of the 1960's (North) to play off in 6 grand finals in the 1970's, brain doctors would've had you committed! Things do turn.

Tragically, the early-mid 70's should've been a launching board for the Dogs. As it panned out, the FC and Social Club had a bust up and we lost the plot as a result. Then in the '80's we were close once. In the '90's we were close twice and in the '00's we were close three times...

We might not be there just yet but we ARE still standing. We have 1989 to thank for that. As they say, it's not the size of the dog in the fight, but the size of the fight in the dog! And things can and do turn! The west as a whole is on the cusp of a prolonged boom. If this team can be successful (and I think it can), we can really capitalise. There are no quick fixes, but keep the faith. We will do it someday! And when it comes, it'll be manic!

[LostDoggy]

Sundays, generally, suck to be scheduled on and we have a plethora this year.

This analysis gives me hope that when we get good again our attendances will rise.

It's only via sustained success we will gain new members or supporters to grow with. I suspect our membership is dying off year by year or is at risk of doing so shortly.

I'd be very interested to see a graph that showed average member age since 1980 to now.
Yeah, that's the interesting thing for me from the graph: the membership figures. I mean, ladder position dictated attendance, no surprise right? But our membership has held up. It's not growing very much, but it's held up. The issue is that the members aren't going to games, and probably just buy one to support the club without actually turning up. It's good, but real support is colour in the stands, noise to drive the players onward. Whilst we all bemoan no free to air games, it might be a poisoned chalice at the moment anyway.

Edit: before I get flamed by posters in WA, overseas, etc. I'm not singling people out. So chill.

The real answers will come over the next few years as the team rises again.

Love the graph, what tool did you create it with?

Memberships are a positive but Sunday twilight games are killing us.
Adobe Illustrator, gives you more control over the appearance. That was an issue given how many figures are represented on one graph.

Correct, however a few things contributed to that in the years around our flag. The west becoming a hub for chemicals along with mass population turnover in the area, along with a fall off of support from our VFA glory years. We won nine or so flags in a 27 year stretch 30-57 years prior to '54, so many of that glut of success-driven supporters were literally dying off!

I know many Vietnamese and, apart from a few, most just aren't into Aussie Rules. That said, there are peaks and troughs for all footy clubs. If you'd told the average man in the 1940's that mighty Fitzroy would be dead within 50 years and the basket case, Hawthorn, a powerhouse, you'd have been ridiculed! If the lowest attended club in the league at that point, Geelong, were singled out for a bright future, it'd have raised eyebrows, whilst if you'd predicted the other basket case of the 1960's (North) to play off in 6 grand finals in the 1970's, brain doctors would've had you committed! Things do turn.

Tragically, the early-mid 70's should've been a launching board for the Dogs. As it panned out, the FC and Social Club had a bust up and we lost the plot as a result. Then in the '80's we were close once. In the '90's we were close twice and in the '00's we were close three times...

We might not be there just yet but we ARE still standing. We have 1989 to thank for that. As they say, it's not the size of the dog in the fight, but the size of the fight in the dog! And things can and do turn! The west as a whole is on the cusp of a prolonged boom. If this team can be successful (and I think it can), we can really capitalise. There are no quick fixes, but keep the faith. We will do it someday! And when it comes, it'll be manic!

Good post. It's one thing I say to my Essendon/Hawthorn mates: when it comes, bada-boom! Remember Geelong in 2007?

[Nuggety Back Pocket]

Correct, however a few things contributed to that in the years around our flag. The west becoming a hub for chemicals along with mass population turnover in the area, along with a fall off of support from our VFA glory years. We won nine or so flags in a 27 year stretch 30-57 years prior to '54, so many of that glut of success-driven supporters were literally dying off!

I know many Vietnamese and, apart from a few, most just aren't into Aussie Rules. That said, there are peaks and troughs for all footy clubs. If you'd told the average man in the 1940's that mighty Fitzroy would be dead within 50 years and the basket case, Hawthorn, a powerhouse, you'd have been ridiculed! If the lowest attended club in the league at that point, Geelong, were singled out for a bright future, it'd have raised eyebrows, whilst if you'd predicted the other basket case of the 1960's (North) to play off in 6 grand finals in the 1970's, brain doctors would've had you committed! Things do turn.

Tragically, the early-mid 70's should've been a launching board for the Dogs. As it panned out, the FC and Social Club had a bust up and we lost the plot as a result. Then in the '80's we were close once. In the '90's we were close twice and in the '00's we were close three times...

We might not be there just yet but we ARE still standing. We have 1989 to thank for that. As they say, it's not the size of the dog in the fight, but the size of the fight in the dog! And things can and do turn! The west as a whole is on the cusp of a prolonged boom. If this team can be successful (and I think it can), we can really capitalise. There are no quick fixes, but keep the faith. We will do it someday! And when it comes, it'll be manic!

A great read and summary. We have a real challenge at the moment of dealing with a 10 million dollar debt. Full marks to Peter Gordon in putting up his hand again and the fight he is prepared to take on regarding equalization. Our playing list still needs a major over haul before we can become truly competitive. Clubs like Hawthorn Geelong and the Sydney Swans have stolen a march in the recruiting stakes. The decision to lock ourselves into Etihad has also been a huge financial burden. As much as I like to say it being from the Outer East, both Skilled stadium at Geelong and Tasmania with the Hawthorn deal only contracted for a year or two offer far greater financial benefits. The problem with relying heavily on the Western suburbs where I grew up has mean the slow membership take up of the large migration movement into this region and also the shrewd move of the more wealthier AFL clubs such as Hawthorn Essendon and Collingwood with licensed Pokie clubs. Sixty years is a long time to wait for our second flag but 1989 reminds us never to give up hope.

[Go_Dogs]

Nice work on the graph, a good visual summation.

Whilst we haven't gone boom in the membership stakes, this at least says to me we have improved and are holding ground with our core supporters. Given our performance over the past few years, it would've been easy for that number to dip significantly. If we can get some strong on-field results over the next couple of years, I think we can improve it.

[ledge]

Sunday twilight kill family membership. I bet a lot of supporters look at the draw before buying membership and that's what they judge buying membership on.
If the club wants to grow young membership it needs to play at times junior football is not being played.
The problem is that's Friday nights or Daturday nights when the AFL give those times to the big clubs.
PS in my opinion any club could be a big club if you give them Friday night and Saturday night games on tv every week for 10 years.

[Bulldog4life]

Great work BAS. As has been mentioned hopefully sustained success over a long period can spike our membership upwards.