If we keep winning, do we have face a problem in 5+ years?

[bulldogtragic]

Firstly, I'm not advocating tanking.

I've been reflecting for well over a year about how teams need to successfully 'bottom out'. For great sides like Hawthorn, Sydney & Geelong where they can top up with kids in the late first round, for other teams the prized picks, especially pick 1, seem to me to be necessary in rebuilding from a low base.

My concern is in 2012 we played a decent first half of the season, and then awful second half. Consequently we didn't get our hands on pick 1 or even 2. Then 2013 we had a dreadful first half, but excellent latter half. Consequently again we did not get our hands a top 1 or 2 pick.

These picks represent players you can build a team around, like Riewoldt and Roughead, or emerging guns like Patton, Boyd and arguably Cameron or Hogan.

Because we haven't bottomed out traditionally in one season (take the 2012-2013 mid points I think we had 4 wins) by spreading our performances which would ordinarily lead to a selection like above we are relying on our mids in Macrae, Bonts and Stringer where ever he ends up playing.

The issue is apparent again this year. There are 3 or 4 very talented KPF's not least of which hype will no doubt come on Wright, McCartin & Goddard. If we climb ourselves up past these kids again it puts us another year back without a top prized pick KPF.

As I say, i'm not suggesting we tank, with Grant back i'm expecting some more wins for sure, but come 5 years time are we going to be regretting not getting down low enough to get a prized KPF??

[LostDoggy]

I'm cool with missing all 4 as our backline needs more work than our forward line. Morris and Murphy are gone inside 3 years. Read that again. That's a MASSIVE pair of holes down back. At least our forward line is working somewhat with Crameri in there now. Tommy W shows promise as a bonus player when we get him on the deck. I'm happy to trade for one of GWS's 45000 talls in a couple of years and would be happy to either grab a rebounding 2/3rd tall like lever (draft) or plowman (trade). Get them in there first and worry about a tall forward next year when the feeding frenzy for a tall forward dies down a little. Could also go after Membrey or Reid from Sydney (prefer the former). There was no way of getting pick 1 or 2 in '10, '11 or '12 without us being such basket cases we would face a melbourne scenario coming out. That may well have killed our club. We seem to have done very well with the picks we've had. Dahlhaus was a rookie, pick 20 rookie at that, in 2010. That's freakin genius right there. In fact redo the 2010 draft and we got 3 top 25 picks in hindsight when we used 22,44 and pick 20 rookie draft. We are doin' ok I think.

[boydogs]

As I say, i'm not suggesting we tank, with Grant back i'm expecting some more wins for sure, but come 5 years time are we going to be regretting not getting down low enough to get a prized KPF??

I think our Father/Son picks and compensation for Ward, Reid & Harbrow will help us

[bulldogtragic]

I think our Father/Son picks and compensation for Ward, Reid & Harbrow will help us

My sarcasm radar is off today, I'm under the weather, but my first reaction was to laugh, I hope i got it right? :)

Ayce and Mitch in the magoos, Prudden hasn't played this year and Harbrow's pick was spent on Sherman.

Did i get it right? :)

[boydogs]

My sarcasm radar is off today, I'm under the weather, but my first reaction was to laugh, I hope i got it right? :)

Ayce and Mitch in the magoos, Prudden hasn't played this year and Harbrow's pick was spent on Sherman.

Did i get it right? :)

I was thinking more of Macrae, Libba & Hunter. It was a serious post

[bulldogtragic]

I was thinking more of Macrae, Libba & Hunter. It was a serious post

My bad sorry mate. When you put it like that its a persuasive point. Apologies.

[bulldogtragic]

I was thinking more of Macrae, Libba & Hunter. It was a serious post

My bad sorry mate. When you put it like that its a persuasive point. Apologies. But anything to do with Justin Sherman and pissing away that high pick makes me laugh or cry. :)

[G-Mo77]

Is this the first clean draft since the plastic teams came in? I'm pretty sure all have been compromised until this year, last years was a little better but still missing some underage recruits. It should be a little deeper this year so some of those players you listed may fall. Could you honestly see GWS taking another KPF with their highest pick? Either way we'll get another high pick and we've just got to nail it. If it's 5, 10 or please god make it happen pick 18 it's got to be spot on.

I don't like the idea of bottoming out personally. There is always someone available who can vastly improve your squad with the first pick you take and it's certainly no guarantee that a player drafted higher will be a star. Making the right choice is the hardest and most important part for us.

[G-Mo77]

My bad sorry mate. When you put it like that its a persuasive point. Apologies. But anything to do with Justin Sherman and pissing away that high pick makes me laugh or cry. :)


I miss the Sherminator. :p

[bulldogtragic]

I miss the Sherminator. :p

:) Yeah, I'm not sure where he's playing this year either. I'm not sure how his trade to us fits in with Rawlings (Veale) or Street, or Vez for Everitt, etc. What were we thinking, other than a cool nickname teenagers of the 90's knew :)

[GVGjr]

Is this the first clean draft since the plastic teams came in?

I think there are still a compensation pick or two to be finalised but now with the compensation for players lost during FA it's a moving target.


I
I don't like the idea of bottoming out personally. There is always someone available who can vastly improve your squad with the first pick you take and it's certainly no guarantee that a player drafted higher will be a star. Making the right choice is the hardest and most important part for us.

Same here. We can't afford it and it just creates a whole tanking speculation scenario which isn't healthy.

We simply need to be prepared to trade for draft picks but given our list at the moment that won't be easy. There are some interesting players coming out of contract at GC and GWS that we might be able to leverage into a positive outcome.

[AndrewP6]

:) Yeah, I'm not sure where he's playing this year either.

He was released from his 2014 contract with Williamstown, with a knee injury. So we could make another play for him:p

[GVGjr]

I guess the bigger question is along the lines of how badly do we want to get and early pick so that we could secure an early pick from another club?

Just a hypothetical question but would you trade someone like Clay Smith and our first round pick this season (maybe pick 7) for pick 3 knowing it's going to secure a key position player?
Lets not worry about potential modifications to an offer like this but essentially a player we have pumped 3 years of development into and a first round pick for superior pick around the number 3 mark

Clearly tanking games isn't the answer so we would need to give up something very good to position ourselves around the mark BT is talking about.

[bulldogtragic]

I guess the bigger question is along the lines of how badly do we want to get and early pick so that we could secure an early pick from another club?

Just a hypothetical question but would you trade someone like Clay Smith and our first round pick this season (maybe pick 7) for pick 3 knowing it's going to secure a key position player?
Lets not worry about potential modifications to an offer like this but essentially a player we have pumped 3 years of development into and a first round pick for superior pick around the number 3 mark

Clearly tanking games isn't the answer so we would need to give up something very good to position ourselves around the mark BT is talking about.

Interesting. Although I may have been unclear, after a bad run of form the draft rules are that you get the pick in accord with your ladder position. Ordinarily, if we had our bad run in one season we would have had 3 wins (2012-2013) and thus got a Patton or Boyd. But history being what is, we didn't follow the normal pattern and instead of getting a pick 1 or 2 we got picks 4 through 6. And thus not a KPF that looks the goods. I guess it's more a thought in 5 years time and we wish our picks through these drafts were higher. No one advocates losing, but take late 2012 and 2013 and our draft pick would be pick 2, not 5. We were bad enough for over 20 straight games to deserve a top 1 or 2 pick, but as we didn't do it in a single year. No one wants to lose.

But to the main argument, if we think we can't get a good KPF this year in the draft and trade weeks are slim, we need to think about all options. This being a very interesting thought.

[boydogs]

Just a hypothetical question but would you trade someone like Clay Smith and our first round pick this season (maybe pick 7) for pick 3 knowing it's going to secure a key position player?
Lets not worry about potential modifications to an offer like this but essentially a player we have pumped 3 years of development into and a first round pick for superior pick around the number 3 mark

The modifications are important. Clay Smith no, Mitch Wallis yes

[GVGjr]

The modifications are important. Clay Smith no, Mitch Wallis yes

And which bottom 3 side would accept that offer? You can't just pay unders

[boydogs]

And which bottom 3 side would accept that offer? You can't just pay unders

A team after a mid might not care about going from 3 to 7 if they get a decent player for it

[bulldogtragic]

And which bottom 3 side would accept that offer? You can't just pay unders

This is the issue. You've got to be prepared to have the fans and media say you overpaid. Look at GWS and Melbourne, both are benefiting from a win-win, depending on how they played that week. I think our fans have been burned so often in trades that we are pathologically scared now, but trading is a business and to get a good return the market demands a return back. We can't win a premiership with 20 midfielders, 10 half back flankers, 1 ruck and a few spare parts.

Which is the issue I've inelegantly tried encapsulate. Because we haven't had our bad form in one season proper we haven't been afforded a pick 1 or 2 and get hands on a KPP of any quality. With the investment of time needed (3 or 4 years) we are running out of time to draft our own and history says big reputation KPPs don't pick the dogs to be traded to. There are a few good sorts this year, we really need a top 3 pick to make it certain.

[GVGjr]

A team after a mid might not care about going from 3 to 7 if they get a decent player for it
I would think we would offer a lot better than that to move up the order.

[Remi Moses]

Just reading this thread and déjÃ* vu
Just remember a young key position player is going to take a while to develop.

[boydogs]

I would think we would offer a lot better than that to move up the order.

Pick 7 + Pick 25 for Pick 3?

[1eyedog]

This is the issue. You've got to be prepared to have the fans and media say you overpaid. Look at GWS and Melbourne, both are benefiting from a win-win, depending on how they played that week. I think our fans have been burned so often in trades that we are pathologically scared now, but trading is a business and to get a good return the market demands a return back. We can't win a premiership with 20 midfielders, 10 half back flankers, 1 ruck and a few spare parts.

Which is the issue I've inelegantly tried encapsulate. Because we haven't had our bad form in one season proper we haven't been afforded a pick 1 or 2 and get hands on a KPP of any quality. With the investment of time needed (3 or 4 years) we are running out of time to draft our own and history says big reputation KPPs don't pick the dogs to be traded to. There are a few good sorts this year, we really need a top 3 pick to make it certain.

It will be interesting to see how Hawthorn's list stands up to finals footy this year as I don't see them with a real traditional gun forward. They have a makeshift target in Hale and a third tall in Gunston but Roughie really is pretty much a big on-ball utility now. Can the Hawks win the flag with Gunston and Hale up there? Most of Hawthorn's goals come from their runners.

[jeemak]

The modifications are important. Clay Smith no, Mitch Wallis yes

Neither for mine. We're going to need Mitch to play a similar role to the one Boyd does and did before he became a less than accountable accumulator (2009-2012).

He's shown he can do shut down quite well, now he's got to learn how to get it while shutting down.

Clay's an offensive midfielder who's tough. You don't give those up, especially when Cooney and Griffen are drawing their careers to a close.

For mine, stripping down a midfield you've been building for a few years to land a KPF is counterintuitive.

[jeemak]

To elaborate on that, I'll pose a question.

Did any of the sides we lost to in prelims in 2008-2010 have weaker midfields than we did, and did we lose out by not giving up midfield strength in order to land a strong key forward?

[boydogs]

To elaborate on that, I'll pose a question.

Did any of the sides we lost to in prelims in 2008-2010 have weaker midfields than we did, and did we lose out by not giving up midfield strength in order to land a strong key forward?

Riewoldt beat us in 2009. Barry Hall a year earlier would have been handy

[Remi Moses]

Hayes in 09 was the difference in that last term.
As well as the arse end of the officiating, and Riewoldt the diving cheat.
I'm not convinced Barry would have been the difference, and as we witnessed the ball was kicked in Barry's vicinity to often

[Remi Moses]

Neither for mine. We're going to need Mitch to play a similar role to the one Boyd does and did before he became a less than accountable accumulator (2009-2012).

He's shown he can do shut down quite well, now he's got to learn how to get it while shutting down.

Clay's an offensive midfielder who's tough. You don't give those up, especially when Cooney and Griffen are drawing their careers to a close.

For mine, stripping down a midfield you've been building for a few years to land a KPF is counterintuitive.

Also doesn't send a great message to the playing group.
We'll coach and train you up then trade you .

[Sedat]

Hayes in 09 was the difference in that last term.
As well as the arse end of the officiating, and Riewoldt the diving cheat.
I'm not convinced Barry would have been the difference, and as we witnessed the ball was kicked in Barry's vicinity to often
Baz would have clunked enough of the 57 inside 50's we generated in that game to kick a big enough score to win.

Just on that game, one of the little-discussed reasons we didn't get up was Raph Clarke pulling the only excellent game of his career out of his arse. If only he played like he did the week after in the GF

[chef]

If we had of traded the Cordy pick we would have had him a season early too, one of life's great 'what ifs'.

[Remi Moses]

Baz would have clunked enough of the 57 inside 50's we generated in that game to kick a big enough score to win.

Just on that game, one of the little-discussed reasons we didn't get up was Raph Clarke pulling the only excellent game of his career out of his arse. If only he played like he did the week after in the GF
The only issue I have is that they'd look for Barry and Lyon would have put numbers back on him.
The chaos kick, and Barry would come into his own. Raph Clarke playing the only decent game of his career killed us .

[The Bulldogs Bite]

Can't see a highly rated KPF falling to our pick - it's likely to be pick 5 or even later. Just about every side needs a gun KPF aside from GWS.

Our best alternative is to throw money at one and poach a key forward IMO.

With pick 5 (or whatever it may become) I would be looking at the best defender (preferably key defender, or rebounding HB).

[Hot_Doggies]

Can't see a highly rated KPF falling to our pick - it's likely to be pick 5 or even later. Just about every side needs a gun KPF aside from GWS.

Our best alternative is to throw money at one and poach a key forward IMO.

With pick 5 (or whatever it may become) I would be looking at the best defender (preferably key defender, or rebounding HB).

Melbourne might not need one - Hogan and Dawes

[bulldogtragic]

Melbourne might not need one - Hogan and Dawes

Then Melbourne come to us and put pick 2 or 3 on the table for 5 and Hrovat/Smith/etc like the they did to GWS.

[The Bulldogs Bite]

Melbourne might not need one - Hogan and Dawes

Both are a bit injury prone, one is very young with 8-10 years of service while the other has around 4-5.

I think after losing Clark, they would definitely be interested in a gun KPF.

[Remi Moses]

Then Melbourne come to us and put pick 2 or 3 on the table for 5 and Hrovat/Smith/etc like the they did to GWS.

Not sure The Dees are going to finish that low!
How far is the key position depth in this years draft?

[jeemak]

Baz would have clunked enough of the 57 inside 50's we generated in that game to kick a big enough score to win.

Just on that game, one of the little-discussed reasons we didn't get up was Raph Clarke pulling the only excellent game of his career out of his arse. If only he played like he did the week after in the GF

I suppose part of the issue in playing against the Saints at that time was not so much the frequency of forward entries you were able to tally against them, it was more so the quality of (or lack of) them.

Haven't watched the game since, so perhaps we were entering the forward 50 better than I remember and having Hall would have made a difference. As Remi rightly points out, Hayes smashed that night and as you also correctly point out, Raph Clarke played a very un-Raph Clarke game!

[jeemak]

Both are a bit injury prone, one is very young with 8-10 years of service while the other has around 4-5.

I think after losing Clark, they would definitely be interested in a gun KPF.

If a gun KPF is available then they'd take him. Even GWS would probably take another one if he was clearly the best player in the draft.

[wimberga]

GWS has to be the team we target, they just have to. We are in a good spot as we will likely finish slightly too high to take one of the gun KPP this year, so we will potentially have the earliest tradeable pick for this kind of player. The only competition will come from teams offering experienced players, but thats something we should be able to beat with a package.

If GWS has access to Wright/McCartin/Durdin this year and they already have Boyd, Patton, Cameron, Tomlinson, McCarthy, Jacksch, then surely one of those can slip out. There will likely be some kind of go home factor, and the fact that all these boys have now seen Tyson return to the home of football and become a force at a new club where he is just about the man of the moment, well that's doing us some great PR

[Hot_Doggies]

Not sure The Dees are going to finish that low!
How far is the key position depth in this years draft?

According to MJP, this year is light on for KPF.

[Mofra]

According to MJP, this year is light on for KPF.
There seems to be a few saying this - Wright's back issues and Durdin being better suited to KPD may be part of the issue.

At this stage of the year the field is wide open - our last two first rounds have included Macrae & Bonti, both "bolters" taken because of their coachability and rate of improvement.
It's likely that our first round pick this year isn;t even on the radar.

As an aside, was McCarthy (GWS pick in the teens, KPF) on the first-round radar this time last year?

[Ozza]

There seems to be a few saying this - Wright's back issues and Durdin being better suited to KPD may be part of the issue.

At this stage of the year the field is wide open - our last two first rounds have included Macrae & Bonti, both "bolters" taken because of their coachability and rate of improvement.
It's likely that our first round pick this year isn;t even on the radar.

As an aside, was McCarthy (GWS pick in the teens, KPF) on the first-round radar this time last year?

Its a good point. 17 year olds can progress quite quickly and/or suddenly - so it will be interesting to see which players are right there in the frame come August/September. In any case - hopefully none of the teams below us on the ladder lose a star player to free agency and are compensated with a first rounder - pushing us further down than wherever we start.

[GVGjr]

According to MJP, this year is light on for KPF.

I'm not speaking for MJP but perhaps he means there are no players in the ilk of Boyd or Hogan and if so I agree.
I think there is some depth this year but there may not be the star power that a Boyd, Hogan or Martin would have provided last year if the draft wasn't compromised.

[Remi Moses]

According to MJP, this year is light on for KPF.

I think we go with best available to be honest.
No reaching please

[mighty_west]

If we keep winning.... We'll win Premiership's.

look at Melbourne who have clearly been tanking for the best kids in the draft and where it got them at, a losing culture over quite some time, Paul Roos walks in and bam, his prized number 2 pick sold for 2 extremely talented kids who have shown to be more valuable than one Josh Kelly IMO.

Brave clubs with the courage to who make big calls win flags, not tanking ones : Melbourne, Carlton.

[Greystache]

look at Melbourne who have clearly been tanking for the best kids in the draft and where it got them at, a losing culture over quite some time, Paul Roos walks in and bam, his prized number 2 pick sold for 2 extremely talented kids who have shown to be more valuable than one Josh Kelly IMO.

And so ridiculous is the "what's in the box" excitement of an unknown kid that people who were outraged Melbourne gave up a "guaranteed gun" to get some recycled GWS kid seemed to forget that Tyson was a #3 pick 2 years earlier who those same people declared a guaranteed gun you would never give up for some recycled kid. Draft picks are like new cars, the moment they've been used they drop 20% in value.

Tyson is already a much better player than Trengove who was a previous #2 pick for Melbourne.

[Ozza]

And so ridiculous is the "what's in the box" excitement of an unknown kid that people who were outraged Melbourne gave up a "guaranteed gun" to get some recycled GWS kid seemed to forget that Tyson was a #3 pick 2 years earlier who those same people declared a guaranteed gun you would never give up for some recycled kid. Draft picks are like new cars, the moment they've been used they drop 20% in value.

Tyson is already a much better player than Trengove who was a previous #2 pick for Melbourne.

Not to mention being better than the #1 from the same draft as Trengove also!

[LostDoggy]

There's one kid who hasn’t been mentioned, but would fit our mould for leadership, talent and propensity to pick players who aren't perceived as 'next best', but fit our model.

Jake Lever who's out for the year (in all likelihood) with an ACL done late last year IIRC captained Vic Metro in 2013, as an under-ager. Early/mid 190's and 82 kg's+.

If we slip out the top five first draft picks of KP players there's every likelihood Jake would fit the new Bulldogs mantra.

[The Bulldogs Bite]

And so ridiculous is the "what's in the box" excitement of an unknown kid that people who were outraged Melbourne gave up a "guaranteed gun" to get some recycled GWS kid seemed to forget that Tyson was a #3 pick 2 years earlier who those same people declared a guaranteed gun you would never give up for some recycled kid. Draft picks are like new cars, the moment they've been used they drop 20% in value.

Tyson is already a much better player than Trengove who was a previous #2 pick for Melbourne.

Spot on. It was only 3 or 4 weeks ago that the media and supporters were banging on about how Melbourne had stuffed it up by not taking Kelly. Whilst Kelly looks like a future gun, Tyson is already an extremely good player, and Salem looks terrific too - smartest move Melbourne have made in the last decade.

Just on Trengove, I know he's had some injuries but he's never been able to translate his junior form over into the AFL. He has looked so far out of his depth that I don't even think he can make the standard as a fringe player. The club hasn't helped him (expectation plus captaincy), and now with his long term injury, he's coming from a long way back.

[Go_Dogs]

Trengove is one of the best juniors I've seen out of SA. I'm a fan, but injuries have really hurt his development.

Over the journey I think it's unfair to suggest he may only be a fringe player at best - I'm still backing him in to become quite a bit better than that.

[lemmon]

Trengove is one of the best juniors I've seen out of SA. I'm a fan, but injuries have really hurt his development.

Over the journey I think it's unfair to suggest he may only be a fringe player at best - I'm still backing him in to become quite a bit better than that.
Needs to get his fitness and strength right. Looked slow this year and I don't think I can recall him kicking over 40 metres.

[The Bulldogs Bite]

Needs to get his fitness and strength right. Looked slow this year and I don't think I can recall him kicking over 40 metres.

Been a problem for him from almost day one, as far as I can recall.

I don't see any strengths to his game. He isn't quick, strong, skillful or an accumulator so I am not sure how he carves out a career at this point.