2013 vs 2014 and how 2015 and beyond is looking

[Webby]

Post the St Kilda game I noted that we're on 7 wins with three games to go. We should get over GWS and that'll match last year's tally of 8 wins... I also note that we're on 85 percentage points. That's pretty much as "even Steven" with last year as you can get.. On paper, anyway..

However, I had a look at our top 8 from the 2013 b&f count and it's immediately clear to me that we have very much made progress. Last year's top 8 were: Griffen, Libba, Minson, Murphy, Morris, Dahlhaus, Cooney & Gia. 6 of the 8 were 27+ and the average age 29...

Of course we don't know what our top 8 will be this year, but I'd expect to see Macrae, Wood, Libba, Crameri, Morris, Dahlhaus and Stringer in the mix. Whilst Stevens, Roughie and Hrovat are half a chance to be thereabouts. if there was a b&f for the second half of the year, Bontempelli would surely crack the top ten, whilst Mitch Wallis's game on Joel Sellwood a few weeks back showed he can make a player. He and Clay Smith were stiff with their injuries. If Clay Smith can get over his knee, he'll also be handy. He was beating down the door in the VFL when his knee went again. Fingers and toes crossed on his recovery this time.

We've managed to hold steady despite dropping the average age of our team this season. We'll get pick 5 or 6 as well as a pick for Higgins. We should nab Zaine Cordy as well as a decent early first rounder (hopefully on par with Macrae, Stringer and Bonts) and then trade for a decent, homesick young tall from an upstart team in the north. Meanwhile, Cordy and Campbell's development in the VFL has been stark and both Honeychurch and Darley have shown very good signs. The most important two players for me are Talia and Roberts. Those two really need to push themselves over the pre-season. Big development from those two is crucial. I hope they take the responsibility for both their own careers and the fortunes of the club. They are two players we really need to come on.

The key for us is also obviously a quality tall forward. The question is do we try to land a good young one via a trade or the Draft, or do we continue to develop around that missing piece and the nab a ~27 year old free agent when we're clearly on the cusp around 2017 or so?

As we further develop Hunter, JJ, A Cordy, Campbell, Jones, Z Cordy, perhaps one traded in young KPP and a quality pick 5 or 6 next year, I think we'll begin to see a very young team that's winning 10 or so games in 2015, pushing for finals in 2016, making finals in 2017 and then looking at prelims and GFs from 2018 onwards.

So next year I doubt very much that we'll see finals, but we will see the future staring us in the face. It's going to be fun! Meanwhile, we might just see our young blokes pinching a VFL flag...! Those finals will be a blast. I hope our supporters turn up in droves and that Roberts, Talia, Cordy, Campbell, Redpath, Darley and Honeychurch star!!

The big success of 2014 is our VFL team. If I were a 20 year old looking to choose a VFL club to play for, I'd have to be attracted to Footscray. We've provided the biggest crowds, the best atmosphere and I'd say the club has the best facilities along with Geelong.. This is potentially a huge competitive advantage for the club in the coming years. With any luck, it'll nab us a couple of the Barlow, Boyd, Morris or Podsiadly types over the next 2-3 years..

I'm Looking forward to the future. It's been a pretty good 12 months for the club.

[Remi Moses]

Excellent points made Webby.
Last year we were carried by our senior guys, and had outstanding seasons from Griff and Will.
Some media types lazily look at the win loss tally without looking deeper into it , and it is obvious our younger guys have stepped up.

[LostDoggy]

We've lost four or five games by less than two goals according to a stat someone put up a few weeks back? We've staying in games longer it seems compared to 2013.

[ledge]

I don't think Higgins will go and after yesterday it's obvious he still has a lot to give.

[The Bulldogs Bite]

Next year will be interesting.

We simply must keep improving, but our defense looks terrible given we still rely heavily on Morris and Murphy. If they hold their form and we can develop Talia/Roberts and a few others, then finals should be on the radar. If they don't develop and Morris/Murphy decline, we could stagnate.

It's a tight competition which makes it difficult. I tend to think the aim should be to play finals, but having said that, we could have 10-11 wins miss finals and still improve.

2016 we absolutely need to make finals, no excuses. I think you're letting us off way too lightly to suggest otherwise.

[Webby]

Next year will be interesting.

We simply must keep improving, but our defense looks terrible given we still rely heavily on Morris and Murphy. If they hold their form and we can develop Talia/Roberts and a few others, then finals should be on the radar. If they don't develop and Morris/Murphy decline, we could stagnate.

It's a tight competition which makes it difficult. I tend to think the aim should be to play finals, but having said that, we could have 10-11 wins miss finals and still improve.

2016 we absolutely need to make finals, no excuses. I think you're letting us off way too lightly to suggest otherwise.

I think you hit the nail on the head re Morris and/or Murphy coming out of the side at end 2015 or 2016 (or during 2016). This is my issue. They'll be very, very hard to replace. Murphy and Morris are club greats. The enormity of their looming retirements mean that I wouldn't be expecting finals in 2016. We're still two more years of introducing 20-21 year olds before we're a finals team. Although I'd be delighted to be proven wrong!

The terrible state of our list in 2010 shouldn't be underestimated. It was very very old by our third prelim year... It really should've had a mini-overhaul (similar to Collingwood's current one) from the end of 2009. However we just didn't have the 2005-2009 draftees to come through.... So we were in a position where we might as well have one last crack at a GF with a very old list... But what would be left at the end of 2010 was always going to be a big, big worry. So it's been a long road back!

We're at a point now where we'll probably have a 19 year old and a 22 year old finishing 1&2 in our b&f. Potentially another 22 year old finishing 4th. We've got three rising star nominees and another who's not far off a nomination. However we have very little in the 26-29 age group and 4 or 5 guns who are 30+. The 30+ retirements will hold us down in 2016, IMO, but we'll be primed by 2017.

As I say, I'd be delighted to see us in finals in 2016, but I certainly wouldn't expect it.

[Go_Dogs]

Good post Webby.

I mentioned something similar in another thread recently, that looking at the numbers doesn't explain the change in reliance we've had over the course of this season and the age of the players who have really been driving our performance.

I'm somewhat optimistic about our chances at finals next year, if a couple of close ones had gone our way this year, ie. both Bombers games, the Crows, etc, we'd be right in the mix this year.

[The Bulldogs Bite]

Fair response, Webby. Enjoying the input this thread has generated thus far.

What it does solidify is that our drafting over the next two years is still absolutely critical. We have done very well since 2010, and whilst the bulk of the work is done, it'll be all for nothing if we don't add another batch of quality players (both kids and through trading/free agency).

It will require us to be cut throat with our list management decisions too, and it's why I think the likes of Pearce, Young, Prudden, Cordy, Roberts, Talia and co. need to show something in the next 12 months. I hope we don't fall into the trap of holding onto players too long like we have in the past.

If we don't make finals in 2016 then I will put that down to poor drafting/list management. We've had long enough to plan for the decline/retirements of Morris and Murphy.

[LostDoggy]

Had a really strange feeling since the crap happened with Harbrow and Ward, and now with free agency, etc, that no matter how well we draft we are just going to get pilfered of all our best players.

[comrade]

Had a really strange feeling since the crap happened with Harbrow and Ward, and now with free agency, etc, that no matter how well we draft we are just going to get pilfered of all our best players.

I'm confident that the personnel and structure we have in place now is much better prepared to ward off (pun intended) rival bids. Yes, we may lose a player here and there but I'd be shocked if we lost one of our real guns.

It does suck watching Callan Ward tear it up each week, though.

[The Bulldogs Bite]

I'm confident that the personnel and structure we have in place now is much better prepared to ward off (pun intended) rival bids. Yes, we may lose a player here and there but I'd be shocked if we lost one of our real guns.

It does suck watching Callan Ward tear it up each week, though.

It makes it easier to 'take' losing Ward when you realise we got Macrae out of it.

Ward's very good, but I know who I'd rather, and what type of player is more difficult to find.

[Remi Moses]

On SEN at the moment is a promo of "crunch time" and Crazy Vossy saying we should "pay overs" for a key forward.
;) what's fev up to Crazy Vossy?

[Webby]

I'm somewhat optimistic about our chances at finals next year, if a couple of close ones had gone our way this year, ie. both Bombers games, the Crows, etc, we'd be right in the mix this year.

The only thing about the old "bank our wins and add the close ones" approach is that one also has to consider the fact that we won a few tight ones, too. It's a swings and roundabouts thing. If we're talking about Adelaide and Essendon games, we also have to consider the Richmond and Melbourne games which went our way. Plus, we actually had a relatively soft draw this year. A lot of the teams we played twice were pretty poor.

I think that eleven wins next year would really test us and eleven wins probably wouldn't nab us 8th. What I'm looking for is Talia and Roberts beginning to chop out Morris. Also Wallis, Bonts and Hunter getting more time in midfield. Perhaps even Clay Smith in the second half of the year if his knee heals well. I want to see JJ imposing himself from a back flank and perhaps Darley making a similarly big step. I want to see Campbell and Cordy taking some load off Will and I want to see Zaine Cordy and Jayden Foster developing in the VFL side - along with a couple of draftees and perhaps another KPP from a trade.

Having said that, if we win 8 again, I'll be a bit disappointed. Twelve wins to make finals is a stretch. I think ten to eleven wins and a finish of 10th or so should be about par next year, with finals a good bonus.

Thinking back to 2006, our developing team got those bonus wins, snuck into the eight and, with nothing to lose, knocked off Collingwood. A great day. However we got smashed the following week and 2007 was a let down before we were primed in 2008. We might pinch finals next year, but I think we'd be stretched to do it. Nonetheless, I think we're a genuine finals team in 2017 and a chance to pinch 8th by 2016. Come what may, our window should be front and centre in 2018-21.

Of course, this is just my take on it.

[bornadog]

I see things a little differently, but Webby is probably more realistic than I am.

By next year Macca will be in his fourth year at the club and should be starting to talk about making finals, ie bottom of the top 8. Guys like Libba, Roughead, Wallis, Dahl would have been at the club long enough to takeover leadership roles and be our young core group to take us to the next level. In the middle to upper age bracket, Higgins has had a very good season, Crameri is 26 years old, Grant 25, Stevens, Dickson will all cover the 100 plus games bracket. We will still have Cooney, Murphy, Minson and Morris as the mature players and the younger players such as Macrae, Stringer, Hrovat, Hunter will be in their third year. I am not expecting too much from last years recruits, but they will also be contributing. Campbell/Cordy will be taking over more and more ruck duties. The key will be Roberts and Talia in the backline and Jones needs to step up.

8 wins last year and this, with at least 5 games under 10 points this year, I feel is not unrealistic in 2015 to get 12 wins and make finals, otherwise, Macca is in danger of failure.

[LostDoggy]

I think it's easy to say we should be better next year, but our midfield lapses and defensive mistakes seem to be down to inexperience as much as anything else. Knowing where to be and what to do in constantly changing and challenging circumstances comes with experience, and being durable and strong enough to endurance run out and survive the knocks from bigger sides over a whole season also comes with time in the game and building up the body.

And introducing new inexperienced players as the experienced ones fade away will not make it easy for us. I'd give it another 2-3 years before we have a group of talented players approaching their mid twenties that are battle ready to challenge top 4.

[Mantis]

The key for us is also obviously a quality tall forward. The question is do we try to land a good young one via a trade or the Draft, or do we continue to develop around that missing piece and the nab a ~27 year old free agent when we're clearly on the cusp around 2017 or so?



As others have mentioned the key is building a defence.. We look dangerous going forward and have some developing types who will improve, but our defence is a huge concern.

[Bulldog Joe]

Interesting thread.

I think the alleged soft draw this year is overstated because of the actual timing. Our opening 2 games were efectively unwinnable despite being against sides missed finals in 2013. West Coast in the Perth heat in March was never winnable and then to come up against North Melbourne on an effective 6 day turnaround where they had 2 weeks was also close to impossible, particularly for a young group like ours.

We will again finish bottom 6 and my understanding is that guarantees us at least 2 (or is it 3) games against other bottom 6 teams. That means we almost certainly play Brisbane and St Kilda twice, so we will be assessed again as having a soft draw.

How the fixture goes with timing and travel may well determine if it is actually soft.

However, we should be aiming at finals and that really does require 13 wins. To get that we need Griffen fit for the year and Libba, Wallis, Macrae, Bonts, Stringer to continue on with their improvement. Jarrad Grant fit and playing like the end of 2013 wouldn't hurt either as would Liam Jones playing consistently close to what he showed against Collingwood.

Whether Campbell and Cordy can step up and even force Minson out could also add a lot to the prospects. We also need one of Roberts/Talia to take control of a key back post and get Roughy back on track.

I am optimistic, but there are lots of parts to the puzzle.

[LostDoggy]

Interesting thread.

I think the alleged soft draw this year is overstated because of the actual timing. …

How the fixture goes with timing and travel may well determine if it is actually soft

I'm not really a believer in "soft" or "hard" fixtures as an absolute. Sure, in terms of 6 day breaks, etc. it's important in that regard, but there's nothing to be gained from accepting your fate before you've taken the field. Teams like Port Adelaide, whose fortunes differ wildly over the course of a season, make any assessment of a fixture before the season is under way little more than fodder for pre-season newspaper inches. Like the old timers say, you just play the team before you on the day, in the circumstances given you, and do what you must to win.

To go slightly off-topic (my favourite hobby): In my own perverse Bulldog fashion, I actually like that the odds are stacked against us. It makes beating the bastards all the more worthwhile. This really hit me at a function last Wednesday where I met Ross Oakley. The animosity was still there, but was much diminished, and primarily because we beat him. Not just the club, but all Bulldogs people, defeated the bastard. We're still kicking on, and he's a has-been writing books about the glory days with such humble titles as "The Phoenix Rises". It wasn't easy to beat him, it was a "hard" draw, but we did it anyway, and that's what adds to the glee.

Back on topic, I have to say, Webby, that I really enjoy reading your posts, keep up the good work.

[Happy Days]

As others have mentioned the key is building a defence.. We look dangerous going forward and have some developing types who will improve, but our defence is a huge concern.

I really believe that a team's forward line can be created by the tools at its disposal; a crew of mid sized forwards can work if you play to their strengths (I.e: kicking to leads, quick movement, not kicking it on the heads of 175cm guys, etc.). Same goes if you have a tall, or a bunch of smalls (Freo almost won the flag with a forward line all shorter than Bontempelli last year). You can make it work if you shape your game style to work it (at least to some degree).

Defence, however, is dictated by the other team. We can't look to go up against teams with these aerobic guns and not have someone to go with them. The closest teams can come to dictating terms is if they get the ball to guys they want to have it in defence, and that only happens if they can stop the other team (Gibson/Stratton/Spangher (HAHAHAHA) at Hawthorn, Richards/Grundy at Sydney). We need guys like this to make guys like Murphy and, um, Darley (?) look good, and therefore make us look good.

Basically defence > offence. Or at least more important.

[Nuggety Back Pocket]

I think you hit the nail on the head re Morris and/or Murphy coming out of the side at end 2015 or 2016 (or during 2016). This is my issue. They'll be very, very hard to replace. Murphy and Morris are club greats. The enormity of their looming retirements mean that I wouldn't be expecting finals in 2016. We're still two more years of introducing 20-21 year olds before we're a finals team. Although I'd be delighted to be proven wrong!

The terrible state of our list in 2010 shouldn't be underestimated. It was very very old by our third prelim year... It really should've had a mini-overhaul (similar to Collingwood's current one) from the end of 2009. However we just didn't have the 2005-2009 draftees to come through.... So we were in a position where we might as well have one last crack at a GF with a very old list... But what would be left at the end of 2010 was always going to be a big, big worry. So it's been a long road back!

We're at a point now where we'll probably have a 19 year old and a 22 year old finishing 1&2 in our b&f. Potentially another 22 year old finishing 4th. We've got three rising star nominees and another who's not far off a nomination. However we have very little in the 26-29 age group and 4 or 5 guns who are 30+. The 30+ retirements will hold us down in 2016, IMO, but we'll be primed by 2017.

As I say, I'd be delighted to see us in finals in 2016, but I certainly wouldn't expect it.
The infusion of Bonti Macrae and Stringer has helped paper over some of the cracks in our list, which still lacks depth. The inability of Jones Grant Roberts Talia and Cordy to become consistent and good senior players is a major concern. Whilst our attack on the ball has been a feature since Macca took over we still lack the necessary skill to match it with the quality sides going forward. Our need of a KPF and KPD is still most glaring such as the decision to play Morris as our second best tall defender which is a worry. Players like Howard Fuller Pearce Goodes Young and Tutt need to be put under the microscope at season's end, if we are going to again become a final 8 contender. The expected retirements of Gia Boyd Murphy Morris and Picken in the next year or two will require astute recruitment to further improve our playing list which is still in need of an overhaul.