Dogs throw pigeon among the Cats with Tom Boyd

[Bulldog4life]

Consider for a moment you are Geelong. You have Tom Hawkins out of contract at the end of next year. He is a free agent when his contract expires and you want to avoid all that messiness and get things going on a new deal now.

Where do you start? A week ago, you might have known where to start. A week ago, Hawkins and his manager might have known where to start. Not now. Not since the Western Bulldogs committed to paying Tom Boyd millions for what they hope he will do and not for what he has done.

If Boyd after nine games and eight goals can be paid between $6 million and $7 million, then what is Hawkins worth? What is the right price to pay for a player who has won two premierships, been All-Australian, won the club's best and fairest and has three times been its leading goalkicker? What do you pay the player who led the competition for contested marks last season? How much for the man who, at 26, is in his prime after 147 games and 286 goals?

Is it three times Boyd's contract? Four times? Half? Nothing seems quite fair or appropriate any more, not when set against Boyd's contract.



The Bulldogs had their reasons for chasing Boyd as hard as they did and they were understandable. There was the determination to land a big-name player for what such a move would say about the broader club. There was the determination to land a key forward for what it would say and do for a young and emerging list. There was the determination to land (an emerging) big-name key forward because they had failed so often in the past.

This determination demanded a radical plan to do what had evaded them in the past ... and if it is nothing else, this is clearly a radical plan.

What the Boyd contract has done - despite having been crafted in apparently unique and, for Boyd, serendipitous circumstances - is corrupt the existing pay scales to distort or reshape assumptions of player value.

One question with the Boyd contract, which is unanswerable at this point, is whether this was a rogue contract derived from unique circumstances or is it the new normal?

As sports journalist Jake Niall noted, the Buddy Franklin contract last year was the real game changer in redefining what were accepted as normal terms or appropriate remuneration. But while the Franklin contract was alarming, the player at least had proven bona fides. Boyd's credentials are against juniors.

It is wrong to think the Boyd situation was a product of free agency, as he was seven years away from that freedom. But it is also wrong to think it was irrelevant. If the smaller club could not attract a free agent the way the bigger clubs did, then it had to be innovative and to pay over the odds to compete. Free agency has emboldened players and clubs alike to believe everything is possible now.

The Bulldogs will have their own challenges when their other young players come out of contract and ask for new terms, but right now it is a question being asked at other clubs and by other player managers. Post-Boyd, post-Buddy, they are not only asking what it will take to re-sign their own players but what it will take to noodle a player out of another club.

So how much now is a Tomahawk worth? And how much a Bontempelli?

http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/dogs-throw-pigeon-among-the-cats-with-tom-boyd-20141019-118di3.html?eid=email:nnn-13omn604-ret_newsl-membereng:nnn-04/11/2013-real_footy-dom-sport-nnn-age-u&campaign_code=13ISP006&promote_channel=edmail&mbnr=MTAzNzM1MjM

[Ozza]

I feel like the journo's, possibly on the back of having not that much to write about in between trade week and draft day, are making a far bigger deal of the Tom Boyd deal than need be.

The term - well giving the most highly touted key forward prospect in the land 7 years is not really that outrageous. It would be an extraordinary case for the club to be looking to have Boyd on the list for anywhere shorter than him being a 26 year old. We've had Ayce and Grant on the list until 24-25 years old, with significant question marks on both of their output to date.

And the cost - yes, it looks exorbitant - but is a million dollars really going to be the same in 3-4 years when Boyd theoretically, is really emerging? No doubt it will still be huge money, but it will become the going rate for an AFL clubs most valuable player.

The journo's are trying to compare contracts like they're apples for apples. This is a special scenario. We are a team with significant cap space. We have just lost our highest paid player - and have also lost Cooney, Higgins and Lake is recent times (all well paid) as well as having some of the upper echelon veterans retire, or soon to retire. It took a significant deal, to secure a significant talent that we are punting on (in an educated/researched way) will be key to our structure for a long time.

Yes, I agree that Tom Hawkins (for instance) is worth more RIGHT THIS SECOND, but as a known commodity, and seven years older, in an environment he (Tomahawk) is comfortable with and was drafted to as a father/son - it is clearly not as simple as saying that he is worth '3 or 4 times more'.

[Maddog37]

The Boyd contract will either be seen as a disaster or visionary in time. There are a few journos out there that will be hoping some of their ravings are not recalled if it turns out to be the latter

[Sedat]

Jesus, he's 19yo and will be at the peak of his physical powers through most of the entire term of the contract (serious injuries notwithstanding). Comparing the Boyd situation to Buddy Franklin is idiotic - for starters, Buddy will be using a zimmer frame to get through the race towards the end of his contract. Wow, massive call to suggest that Boyd hasn't achieved as much in the game as the likes of Hawkins or Cloke - that's what a futures market is chaps, you know, an eye to the future :rolleyes:

To call some of these scribes moronic would be doing all morons out there a complete disservice.

[azabob]

Devils advocate time. Everything goes well, infact Boyd exceeds expectations as does the club.

How do we manage Boyd's salary come negotiations?

Secondly will he or won't he be a free agent of some sort?

[1eyedog]

Devils advocate time. Everything goes well, infact Boyd exceeds expectations as does the club.

How do we manage Boyd's salary come negotiations?

Secondly will he or won't he be a free agent of some sort?

If we win a premiership in the next 7 years I won't give a shite because I will live out the rest of my days happy.

[Remi Moses]

I still think there is a "know your place" mentality with some in the football fraternity.
They keep labouring the point on how we're going to renumerate our young guns.
I'm pretty sure without being a fly on the wall that was the first point made on the white board.
Of course it's high risk ( bleeding obvious) but it's a futures market we're investing in, and the silly comparison to the Franklin contract
The Buddy purchase is a massive win for Sydney in more ways than footy, and of course he isn't going to fulfil his contract.

[westdog54]

Devils advocate time. Everything goes well, infact Boyd exceeds expectations as does the club.

How do we manage Boyd's salary come negotiations?

Secondly will he or won't he be a free agent of some sort?

Must have played at least 8 years with the one club to be eligible for Free Agency.

So if he only signs a 1 year deal at the end of 2021 we'll have a fair idea of what's coming

[Ozza]

Devils advocate time. Everything goes well, infact Boyd exceeds expectations as does the club.

How do we manage Boyd's salary come negotiations?

Secondly will he or won't he be a free agent of some sort?

Sydney manage to keep Buddy AND Tippett (and Reid on plenty, Goodes on plenty - and presumably Kennedy, Jack, McVeigh, Grundy and Hanneberry on good money) in today's salary cap. I suspect we will be able to work it out if it comes to that.

But to some degree you just have to say, as a club, 'get the big bloke for whatever it takes, and work out the rest later'.

[LostDoggy]

If we win a premiership in the next 7 years I won't give a shite because I will live out the rest of my days happy.

This is the scientific diagnosis for my feelings on the matter also.

[hujsh]

Boyd's worth 1mil cause we offered it to him. If clubs offer Hawkins a mil or more the Cats will have to come close to matching that or find another way to deal with it

[Greystache]

Sydney manage to keep Buddy AND Tippett (and Reid on plenty, Goodes on plenty - and presumably Kennedy, Jack, McVeigh, Grundy and Hanneberry on good money) in today's salary cap. I suspect we will be able to work it out if it comes to that.

Don't forget Tom Mitchell geting $450K to play reserves. Carlton were chasing him until they realised they couldn't fit him in their salary cap.

But yeah their COLA is only 9.8% :rolleyes:

[Happy Days]

Devils advocate time. Everything goes well, infact Boyd exceeds expectations as does the club.

How do we manage Boyd's salary come negotiations?

Secondly will he or won't he be a free agent of some sort?

If he exceeds the expectations we'd probably pay him the same or more money because the expectations are that he will be dominant eventually, no?

[Greystache]

I can't help but think if it was Hawthorn or Geelong that made this deal happen the media would be lauding them for being ahead of the rest of the competition, and further proof of why they're a powerhouse club.

[Topdog]

Must have played at least 8 years with the one club to be eligible for Free Agency.

So if he only signs a 1 year deal at the end of 2021 we'll have a fair idea of what's coming

Pfft those are current rules. No chance it will be the same in 7 years time. This is the AFL we are talking about :)

[mjp]

The Boyd contract is great for us. The article is right though-it has a massive flow on effect 'potential'. Whately wrote last week about how much someone *should* offer Cameron, this article talks about Hawkins, Kennedy will be in the same boat...big, key forwards can only be found at the very top of the draft and are worth mega bucks. Remember, Brisbane started all this with the 10-year offer to dunstall way, way, way back (lynch got the contract when dunstall stayed at the Hawks). What was astronomical in year 1 was a bargain in year 7 as the Lions romped to 3 flags with a dirt cheap key forward patrolling the goal square.

[LostDoggy]

Traditionally the salary cap grows at between 3% and 4% per annum. The 2015 Salary cap exceeded $10M for the first time at $10,120,000. Assuming the salary cap grows at 4%, by 2018 it will be $11.38M, and by 2021 (Boyds final contracted year) the salary cap will be approx $12.8M. We have locked in certainty over that time.

Im also not 100% certain (based on Garlicks comments) that the figure is $1M per year (averaged), I think it will be around the $800k mark.

Year TB Earnings Salary Cap % of Salary Cap
2015 200,000 10,120,000 1.97%
2016 1,800,000 10,524,800 17.10%
2017 800,000 10,945,792 7.31%
2018 800,000 11,383,623.68 7.03%
2019 800,000 11,838,968.63 6.76%
2020 800,000 12,312,527.37 6.49%
2021 800,000 12,805,028.47 6.25%

This does not account for any contractual mechanisms that we may or may not have in place to further mitigate our risk such as: performance KPI's, injury clauses etc

[LostDoggy]

I still think there is a "know your place" mentality with some in the football fraternity.
They keep labouring the point on how we're going to renumerate our young guns.
I'm pretty sure without being a fly on the wall that was the first point made on the white board.
Of course it's high risk ( bleeding obvious) but it's a futures market we're investing in, and the silly comparison to the Franklin contract
The Buddy purchase is a massive win for Sydney in more ways than footy, and of course he isn't going to fulfil his contract.

Every time they bring up the Buddy contract I think of a lunch in August I went to with Bobby Skilton present. He spoke about how furious he was when they signed Buddy. He contacted the club and let them know he thought it was utter madness, that they were selling out the club for such a massive amount over a long time. By the start of the season, he still held true to his position — then he was shown the membership figures, increased revenue, etc. He started to come around. By August, at this lunch? He said it was one of the canniest moves Sydney ever made.

I think/hope that our situation will be the same. In a few years' time, nobody except Robinson is going to be stupid and/or petty enough to be harping on about a million dollars when young Boyd is ripping defenders new arseholes.


I can't help but think if it was Hawthorn or Geelong that made this deal happen the media would be lauding them for being ahead of the rest of the competition, and further proof of why they're a powerhouse club.

But they're "special".

[Mofra]

Every time they bring up the Buddy contract I think of a lunch in August I went to with Bobby Skilton present. He spoke about how furious he was when they signed Buddy. He contacted the club and let them know he thought it was utter madness, that they were selling out the club for such a massive amount over a long time. By the start of the season, he still held true to his position — then he was shown the membership figures, increased revenue, etc. He started to come around. By August, at this lunch? He said it was one of the canniest moves Sydney ever made.
That is Sydney, in their window.

Now consider the Bulldogs - much closer to the bottom, losing the Captain and the Coach - and all the talk has been about Tom Boyd.
Our membership department must have been doing cartwheels when the contract was signed. Tom Boyd is worth so much to us in membership sales this year it isn't funny, and this is before we consider how difficult it would be for us to get to 95% of the cap in the next year or two.

[Sedat]

Sydney needs to win at least 1 flag for the Buddy deal to be a success. Their best possible chance was this year - with no trading in of any players allowed for the next 2 years and with quality personnel and good depth players lost in that time, they will have to draft out of their skins to get another bite at the cherry while Buddy, Kennedy and others are still at or near their peak. From a list management perspective, retaining Goodes and losing Malceski this year was complete madness.

[wimberga]

Sydney needs to win at least 1 flag for the Buddy deal to be a success. Their best possible chance was this year - with no trading in of any players allowed for the next 2 years and with quality personnel and good depth players lost in that time, they will have to draft out of their skins to get another bite at the cherry while Buddy, Kennedy and others are still at or near their peak. From a list management perspective, retaining Goodes and losing Malceski this year was complete madness.

Getting two under 18 top-5 talents this year and next will certainly help.

[Dancin' Douggy]

Surely Tom's contract is Front ended (or however you say it).

He Soaks up a lot of salary cap expenditure early, then it tapers off as the other players contracts come up for renewal.

I would have thought that was pretty basic.

[LostDoggy]

I didn't realise the Swans were hit for trading in for 2 years. Ouch.

The 'just offer them' theory will take care of itself. If there's a cap only increased by CPI (which there currently is) then there's only a certain extent a single/or couple of players salaries can be pushed to until it has a detrimental impact on the rest of the playing squad composition. This will self-correct, but teams, including ours, will continue to be raided. It's going to be part and parcel of the game.

[boydogs]

Sydney needs to win at least 1 flag for the Buddy deal to be a success. Their best possible chance was this year - with no trading in of any players allowed for the next 2 years and with quality personnel and good depth players lost in that time, they will have to draft out of their skins to get another bite at the cherry while Buddy, Kennedy and others are still at or near their peak. From a list management perspective, retaining Goodes and losing Malceski this year was complete madness.


Getting two under 18 top-5 talents this year and next will certainly help.

Yeah their academy will keep them going just fine

[Ghost Dog]

The Boyd contract is great for us. The article is right though-it has a massive flow on effect 'potential'. Whately wrote last week about how much someone *should* offer Cameron, this article talks about Hawkins, Kennedy will be in the same boat...big, key forwards can only be found at the very top of the draft and are worth mega bucks. Remember, Brisbane started all this with the 10-year offer to dunstall way, way, way back (lynch got the contract when dunstall stayed at the Hawks). What was astronomical in year 1 was a bargain in year 7 as the Lions romped to 3 flags with a dirt cheap key forward patrolling the goal square.

Off topic but young Boyd has many similarities to Lynch in the way he moves.
Remember the massive lift drafting Barry Hall gave our club? We were a bunch of pushovers up until that point. He made everyone stand a bit taller and we had someone to fear.