2015 The Shape Up or Ship Out List

[The Doctor]

Who needs a big year in 2015 to save their AFL career or prove they are worthy or more time? Here is my view;

Jarrod Grant - 2014 was awful . I'm not interested in excuses in this case. He's had plenty of time. The flash in the pan periods of form are not good enough. the 2014 batch of recruits seem to be multi dimensional players who can kick a goal and some of these guys will press for a forward line spot. Will this make Grant obsolete given he is unlikely to fill a KP spot?Grant seems to have limited flexibility but he does have x factor and his best is match winning ability. Unfortunately it comes around as often as Hailey's comet or a Bulldog premiership. I think he's in the firing line.

Matthew Boyd - as great a warrior and loyal servant he has been, I thought he was lucky to get another year. Father Time is catching up.

Tom Campbell - I thought he was the key inclusion in our improved run of form at the back end of the 2013 season where he gave us a forward target, brought our smaller forwards into the play, kicked crucial early goals and relieved in the ruck, but 2014 was well short of that kind of output. What happened? In his last senior appearance he was all at sea. I think he has a lot to offer but he better start delivering.

Josh Prudden - I really don't know what to make of Prudden. He spends so much time on the sidelines. So if he can't get on the paddock this year to prove his worth it may be time to cut our losses.

Tory Dickson - As I stated in the Grant assessment the new recruits from 2014 may place his position in jeopardy if he doesn't have a good year in 2015. He's capable and a handy goalkicker but I've felt he was either a Macca pet or a short term option. If he's playing reserves for extended periods next year at his age he will be in trouble

Michael Talia - I hate including him here as I think he can play but he deserves a nomination for the fact he didn't step up at senior level in 2014 and we have now brought in some serious competition in Hamling and Cordy for the taller positions in the back half. Another so so year then questions should be asked.

Matthew Fuller - I was gobsmacked when we chose him ahead of Ben Brown but apparently our recruiters know best. He has struggled even at VFL level and is another short half back flanker. We have plenty of options in this area including Lucas Webb. Seems a certain delisting to me unless something miraculous happens.

Jason Johannisen - this will surprise most but I am yet to be convinced. He brings things we are greatly defficient in such as leg speed and run and carry but is really AFL quality?

Liam Picken - like Boyd a great warrior and loyal servant but I'm not sure that what he brings is better than what a similar sized pacy good ball user would bring. We are a slow side that lacks kicking penetration. Is Liam's time up as we look to regenerate with our new draftees. Remember we are talking about a spot in 2016.

Jack Redpath - I'll be honest, I am surprised he is on the senior list as I think he should have been released altogether. for all his critics Liam Jones is a far superior player and we let him go, for whatever reason. I just can't see big Jack making it. Can he get the ball often enough at AFL level to make the most of his aggressive body work and sharp kicking?

Lin Jong - I've been a critic in the past and called for his delisting previously. Yet he gives me the impression of someone who will work his butt off to make it and prove doubters like me wrong. Does he have the kicking skills?

Ayce Cordy - Surely this is his last chance? Or will he be saved that by the fact that Dalrymple hates recruiting anyone above 190cm? He has only recently started to establish himself as a VFL player but still seems a long way from AFL level. Personally I've never seen the attraction. The time has come. No more excuses. Shape up or ship out

[bulldogtragic]

Who needs a big year in 2015 to save their AFL career or prove they are worthy or more time? Here is my view;

Jarrod Grant - 2014 was awful . I'm not interested in excuses in this case. He's had plenty of time. The flash in the pan periods of form are not good enough. the 2014 batch of recruits seem to be multi dimensional players who can kick a goal and some of these guys will press for a forward line spot. Will this make Grant obsolete given he is unlikely to fill a KP spot?Grant seems to have limited flexibility but he does have x factor and his best is match winning ability. Unfortunately it comes around as often as Hailey's comet or a Bulldog premiership. I think he's in the firing line.

Matthew Boyd - as great a warrior and loyal servant he has been, I thought he was lucky to get another year. Father Time is catching up.

Tom Campbell - I thought he was the key inclusion in our improved run of form at the back end of the 2013 season where he gave us a forward target, brought our smaller forwards into the play, kicked crucial early goals and relieved in the ruck, but 2014 was well short of that kind of output. What happened? In his last senior appearance he was all at sea. I think he has a lot to offer but he better start delivering.

Josh Prudden - I really don't know what to make of Prudden. He spends so much time on the sidelines. So if he can't get on the paddock this year to prove his worth it may be time to cut our losses.

Tory Dickson - As I stated in the Grant assessment the new recruits from 2014 may place his position in jeopardy if he doesn't have a good year in 2015. He's capable and a handy goalkicker but I've felt he was either a Macca pet or a short term option. If he's playing reserves for extended periods next year at his age he will be in trouble

Michael Talia - I hate including him here as I think he can play but he deserves a nomination for the fact he didn't step up at senior level in 2014 and we have now brought in some serious competition in Hamling and Cordy for the taller positions in the back half. Another so so year then questions should be asked.

Matthew Fuller - I was gobsmacked when we chose him ahead of Ben Brown but apparently our recruiters know best. He has struggled even at VFL level and is another short half back flanker. We have plenty of options in this area including Lucas Webb. Seems a certain delisting to me unless something miraculous happens.

Jake Johannisen - this will surprise most but I am yet to be convinced. He brings things we are greatly defficient in such as leg speed and run and carry but is really AFL quality?

Liam Picken - like Boyd a great warrior and loyal servant but I'm not sure that what he brings is better than what a similar sized pacy good ball user would bring. We are a slow side that lacks kicking penetration. Is Liam's time up as we look to regenerate with our new draftees. Remember we are talking about a spot in 2016.

Jack Redpath - I'll be honest, I am surprised he is on the senior list as I think he should have been released altogether. for all his critics Liam Jones is a far superior player and we let him go, for whatever reason. I just can't see big Jack making it. Can he get the ball often enough at AFL level to make the most of his aggressive body work and sharp kicking?

Liam Jong - I've been a critic in the past and called for his delisting previously. Yet he gives me the impression of someone who will work his butt off to make it and prove doubters like me wrong. Does he have the kicking skills?

Ayce Cordy - Surely this is his last chance? Or will he be saved that by the fact that Dalrymple hates recruiting anyone above 190cm? He has only recently started to establish himself as a VFL player but still seems a long way from AFL level. Personally I've never seen the attraction. The time has come. No more excuses. Shape up or ship out

Seems about right. We have 'potential' and what deprecates genuine ladder rises and perennial plodders is reaching our potential. The slate is clean, so hopefully some take the opportunity.

[boydogs]

Fair enough list and assessments, I think probably about half will step up and half will go, but that's par for the course really.

Also it's Jarrad Grant, Jason Johannisen & Lin Jong

[Remi Moses]

Hopefully Liam Jong has a better tank than The other Liam.

[Remi Moses]

Fair call on most of those players, but the facts they all won't be shipped out.

[Bumper Bulldogs]

Thats 11 guys that are on our playing, Hard to understand how we have got our club in this position as I'm sure that you could chop most of these guys without a blink of the eye.

That would have to be the most turnover of any club in the last 3 to 4 years.

[soupman]

Thats 11 guys that are on our playing, Hard to understand how we have got our club in this position as I'm sure that you could chop most of these guys without a blink of the eye.

That would have to be the most turnover of any club in the last 3 to 4 years.

Not really.

Just this year Brisbane and Carlton have moved on 12 players, Melbourne 11 and us 12.

The year previous Melbourne lost 11.

And the have been numerous clubs cut 9 or 10.

And really I would expect most bottom 8 clubs to have about a quarter of their list with big question marks over their head. That's why they are bottom 8 sides.

And in the list above many of them are unlikely to be cut this year even if they have average seasons, it isn't exactly a show something immediately or you're out situation. I'd argue even with average years Campbell, JJ, Jong, and Picken would be better than 50-50 shots of remaining at the club.

[always right]

Surprised so many acknowledge Lin Jong's rapid improvement but continue to put him in lists like this. If you had another list for players with the most exciting upside, he would be near the top. His VFL finals series was exhilarating and he has attributes we screaming out for. Sure his kicking is still a concern but his power and acceleration is impressive.....and he is as brave as they come. Really looking forward to seeing if he can go up another level or two in 2015.

[GVGjr]

There was a lot of speculation and angst on why Grant was initially only offered a one year deal after his exciting finish to the 2013 season but I think his performance during this highlighted why there was hesitation. In another contract year I wonder if he has the ability to lift again.
He needs to make the most of what ever chances he receives.

With the players we lost we needed Matthew Boyd to be on the list for the 2015 season but I think that is as far as he will go.

We need to persist with Tom Campbell because like many ruckman it's typically a longer term investment.

Prudden needs to get on the park and if he can't next season then I don't think we can maintain him beyond the season.

Dickson is a wait and see for me. I think his goal kicking ability is something that we need but I find it difficult to have him close to our best 22.

Talia has it all in front of him next season, a new coach and the opportunity to play enough games to prove his worth.

With Fuller it's the same as Prudden and if hew can't get on the park and then get some senior games then we can't maintain him on the list

I don't think Johannisen is in the firing line at all and I think he is the sort of player we need to take another step forward. He can open up games with his pace and skills which are attributes we need.

I think Picken is also a required player. A couple of limitations but he does more than enough to play beyond 2015 albeit potentially with a reduced role.

Redpath has a 12 month deal. I think that is enough time to if he can offer us something

I'll admit to having some doubts about Jong but I think he needs two more seasons before we could possibly make the hard call. To me he is a bit like Picken with a few limitations but he has plenty of upside.

Ayce Cordy offers us depth for the rucks. I thought he played some very good games for Footscray but I tend to agree that it will be hard to have him on the list in 2016 unless something special happens next season.

[stefoid]

Think the list will require a period of consolidation, with perhaps only a 4 or 5 player turnover, inclusive of a trade for a quality player. Mostly because I cant see us cutting any players that are both (a) over 24yo and (b) capable of playing AFL in some capacity. We need some older guys around the club.

Fuller - delist
Grant - trade to carlton

After that it comes down to whichever younger 2 or 3 players have showed no improvement and/or 30yo+ players who suffer a season-ending injury.

What about Honeychurch? If Daniel and Hrovat get ahead of him, is there any point to having him on the list?

[GVGjr]

What about Honeychurch? If Daniel and Hrovat get ahead of him, is there any point to having him on the list?

Are you serious?
If so, why have you already jumped Daniel over Honeychurch? What is that based on?

I'm not sure why you would suggest this after just one season at the club for Honeychurch. I thought he had a good debut season.

[Go_Dogs]

Good post, Doc.

For mine, of those you mentioned the following are safe:-

Campbell - has shown a bit, we haven't quite been able to get him game time in his best role (main ruck, resting forwards) and he has further scope for improvement. We also lack a ready made replacement for him/Minson on our list.

Johannisen - I had a look at our R17 win over GS this morning, and JJ stood out quite a few times. I'm still not quite sure where his best spot is, but he is now a very important player on our list with Griffen, Cooney and Tutt gone. I suspect he'll have a strong year, but he's also worth continued investment.

Talia - despite not making significant progress last season, I thought he was generally good or better at VFL level and whilst we have added some more developing players, I'm pretty optimistic about Talia and like most developing talls, unless he's not applying himself, he likely earns a fifth year on the list.

Picken - as GVGjr mentioned, he has some limitations, but his experience and ability to play a few different roles down back and through the midfield mean he will certainly play beyond next year. He may no longer be a walk up start though.

Of the others:-

Boyd will presumably retire.

Prudden, Dickson and Fuller need to stay fit and get some continuity. The former, perhaps VFL level and a senior game or two would be a good return, the latter two, probably need to play 15+ games to demonstrate they have something to offer moving forwards.

Jong and Redpath, as upgraded rookies, will get opportunity, and their performance will again dictate if we persist with them. I'm quite optimistic about Jong, and Redpath, whilst he is a bit further off, has shown good improvement over the past couple of seasons, which if it continues, could finally become a consistent performer.

Cordy, and to a greater extent, Grant, have both had a long time to get their bodies right, their fitness right and become consistent performers. If neither take the next step of commanding a best 22 spot, or show they'll be able to in 2016 (more so for Cordy, on the basis of a ruck/forward spot opening up, post-Minson) they will be under pressure to retain their places.

A lot can change over the course of the next 10 months, but at the moment I'd suggest we will only be looking at 4-5 senior list changes at the end of 2015.

[Rocco Jones]

Are you serious?
If so, why have you already jumped Daniel over Honeychurch? What is that based on?

I'm not sure why you would suggest this after just one season at the club for Honeychurch. I thought he had a good debut season.

I am with you here. I thought Honeychurch did really well.

I must say I don't get the too many flankers argument a few posters are coming up with. The gun sides have an army of these types who compliment the elite batch/top 10 stars group. The Hawks and Swans had about 5-6 players in their GF 22 who were at least once seen as limited to HFF types. If Honeychurch, Daniel, Hunter, Hrovat, McLean, Webb and Dahl all are good enough, we will fit them in.

[F'scary]

Great post, good thread for this time of the year.

I do not agree with you with on including Jong, Johannisen and Picken on that list as I think that they would survive an ordinary season and be given further chances. And Campbell should be safe unless he has a shocker and Ayce suddenly blossoms.

And if Talia is on the list, so should Roberts be too.

[F'scary]

I think quite a few on the list will survive another year even with ordinary form because of the 9 external recruits, there is only one who is guaranteed to get a senior game, Junior.

[Remi Moses]

Food for thought post
For me
Redpath- needs to make every post a winner next season, and I think he'll struggle with Tom Boyd's arrival.
Cordy- needs more senior games next season, and I reckon he was unlucky not playing more senior footy this season.
But Minson still being there I don't see how he fits in.
Campbell - must be kept and has shown enough positive signs, but with Will being there can't see him playing every week.
Just hope Luke B picks our ruck dept on form , as Minson should have been dropped a few more times.
Jong - still got my doubts on his disposal, but his positive attributes and upside is pretty strong.
JJ - needs to improve his composure and decision making , which will come with more experience. Needs more time for me.
Prudden- another one in the more time category. Let's see him get a run at it. They kept Williams for an eternity even though he was always hurt.
Boyd - going to retire obviously
Talia- will play more next season, and the new coach brings a fresh start for Michael. Wonder if the murmurings were right with himself and B McCartney
Roberts - needs to play more often next season, and if he falls behind Zaine and Hamling it might be goneski

[Remi Moses]

Grant - I think he is done, and it should have been a 1 year deal.
Picken - keep for me( just to annoy the bejesus out of that little toe rag Harvey)

[boydogs]

Surprised so many acknowledge Lin Jong's rapid improvement but continue to put him in lists like this. If you had another list for players with the most exciting upside, he would be near the top. His VFL finals series was exhilarating and he has attributes we screaming out for. Sure his kicking is still a concern but his power and acceleration is impressive.....and he is as brave as they come. Really looking forward to seeing if he can go up another level or two in 2015.

As with Redpath, he was coming from a long way back. He needs to show he can do it at AFL level

[LostDoggy]

I'm afraid Cordy is a real disappointment and a great pity that we wasted a first round draft pick on him.

[FrediKanoute]

Redpath for me is an interesting one. What I liked about him was what he did he generally did well at AFL level. He chased, he pressured, he put his body on the line. He is good on a lead and a good kick for goal. To me he is someone who will put in a shift every week and whilst he may not be the best in his position you will get a more consistent effort. I think he will surprise a few people.

[always right]

As with Redpath, he was coming from a long way back. He needs to show he can do it at AFL level
The fact he has come so far already is cause for optimism. Few have improved as much as this bloke in such a short time.

[stefoid]

Are you serious?
If so, why have you already jumped Daniel over Honeychurch? What is that based on?

I'm not sure why you would suggest this after just one season at the club for Honeychurch. I thought he had a good debut season.

Hrovat, Daniel and Honychurch are similar players - small, not particularly quick, not particularly suited to the forward line.

He might not be the worst player on the list, or even the 10th worst, but he might end up being the most redundant.

[GVGjr]

Hrovat, Daniel and Honychurch are similar players - small, not particularly quick, not particularly suited to the forward line.

He might not be the worst player on the list, or even the 10th worst, but he might end up being the most redundant.

I think that basic logic is flawed but it also doesn't explain why you have Daniel over Honeychurch?

[stefoid]

I think that basic logic is flawed but it also doesn't explain why you have Daniel over Honeychurch?

I did say "if" they get ahead of him.

[LostDoggy]

I think Grant might finally convince me that free agency can work for our club. Happy to take the compo pick. I've no doubt he'll put in a good year as his contract is up, but I have even less doubt that if renewed, he'll go right back to his old ways. Has the talent, we all know that, but doesn't have the drive.

I'm hoping we'll look after Ayce with a role in the club or something, but let him go at the end of the year if he doesn't have a miracle season. And it's going to take a miracle.

Boyd retiring is a given now Gia is gone.

I think all those other players mentioned have still got time to show something and be retained though. Young list, still developing, the opportunity is still there.

I find Talia the most interesting. Now that the coach is gone, he'll get a fresh start, but it also means the pressure is on to perform, because the excuse is gone too.

Hanging out for Round 1. I've no illusions of finals, but it's going to be one hell of a good year to watch our boys come together. In 2018 there'll be posts saying “Yeah, we saw that start to develop in 2015, didn't we?”

[Mofra]

Redpath for me is an interesting one. What I liked about him was what he did he generally did well at AFL level. He chased, he pressured, he put his body on the line. He is good on a lead and a good kick for goal. To me he is someone who will put in a shift every week and whilst he may not be the best in his position you will get a more consistent effort. I think he will surprise a few people.
To be honest I still don't; see it.

Yes it's nice when forward chase and tackle - but I also like it when they get to the right positions and kick goals.

[Go_Dogs]

To be honest I still don't; see it.

Yes it's nice when forward chase and tackle - but I also like it when they get to the right positions and kick goals.

Whilst he didn't take many marks, he generally was OK at impacting a contest. Took a nice little lead up mark early in the GC game when we lowered the eyes coming in - showing he can get to the right positions.

He will need to continue to improve no doubt, but he has started to show glimpses.

[LostDoggy]

It was hard for anyone to kick bags of goals last year with the way we playing, he has only played 3 AFL games and showed enough in them for me to be happy watching him play seniors next year. He won't be a world beater but hopefully he can hold down a position forward or back.

[FrediKanoute]

To be honest I still don't; see it.

Yes it's nice when forward chase and tackle - but I also like it when they get to the right positions and kick goals.

Yeah it is. 3 games played. no where near enough to get used to the pace of the game. He did ok. Not a world beater by any stretch, but enough to suggest for the next season and a half he could help Boyd ease into his role.

[The Underdog]

To be honest I still don't; see it.

Yes it's nice when forward chase and tackle - but I also like it when they get to the right positions and kick goals.

Yeah I kind of don't get it. I see Trent Bartlett most of the time.
Hopefully wrong but he's the player on the list I have the least expectations of.

[The Bulldogs Bite]

Not convinced Redpath can make it either but we made the correct decision in giving him a year to prove himself on the main list. He has improved in almost every area - he dropped bulk and went from somebody struggling at VFL level to being a leading goal kicker of the Premiership side. It's a pretty solid effort.

The step up is huge but he has a few traits which could turn him into a serviceable player - namely his aggression, which was absolutely fantastic in the VFL Grand Final and something most of our key forwards have never had (including players like Walsh, Skipper, Wight, Cordy, Jones etc.). He appears to have OK hands but it's something he needs to improve because he does seem to drop a couple. He's arguably the best kick for goal on our list and he has a presence when he leads.

I understand the doubts, and I do agree with the modest to low expectations, but I am not prepared to completely write him off. Having Boyd might help him as much as he'd help Boyd.

[LostDoggy]

Maybe a resting ruckman forward would help aswell, could be getting the 3rd tall defender. Where this year he was being picked up be the best backman