The Wednesday WOOF Armchair Coaches Strategy Session - Round 2

[bulldogtragic]

I thought I'd try something a little different if it's OK with the mods. The great thing about WOOF was the weekly preview threads, but as life get's busier it's harder to keep it going for a full season it would seem. So I'm thinking that we could start this thread every Wednesday to have a good mid week discussion (leading into game day) after injury and training reports are in from both clubs and ask that participants in the thread try to bring an interest key stat, historical stat, opinion and thoughts about the specific game. If we all add a little bit on value and info, we might get some cracking threads and learn some new things. As for Wednesday, I like Wednesday because there's nothing good on TV and you haven't had your social sports team practice so you're not too tired.

So armchair coaches, it's business time. Lets set up the win:

So after some thought this week, VFL reports, review of the game and injury reports. Looking at the opposition match ups too, do we offer any change to the side. Has your mind changed since posting immediately after the last round? -

My Changes:Hrovat is far too good to have playing VFL. So Hrovat for Goodes. Stevens could play a lock down role down forward on a Grigg or Houli. Stevens or Honeychurch on them - flip of the coin for different reasons.

My key match up & why - Roughy on Riewoldt. Self explanatory really. See my stat below:

My 1 Plan A & Plan B across the lines:
(Defence) A - Roughy on Riewoldt - B- Morris on Riewoldt
(Midfield) A - Wallis on Martin - B - Picken on Martin
(Forward) A - Redpath at CHF - B - Grant at (high) CHF

Most Important KPI: Tackles and pressure in back half.

My key/historical stat - Jack Riewoldt has played 9 games against the dogs. Of all the teams he has played 9 (or less) games against, the team he has kicked the most goals against is the WBFC (28.12). However, Richmond in those games only won 3 of the 9 encounters against the WBFC.

My Strategy - (This week i'm copying from the other threads) -

MJP: Richmond are talented but this isn't an impossible task.

Step 1 is to slow down their ball movement from inside defensive 50...basically, don't allow them to get us going the other way (which we couldn't really do vs West Coast). West Coast and Richmond forward setups are not dis-similar with Reiwoldt playing the Kennedy role and Martin playing the part of LeCras.

Step 2 is to take our chances. Obvious I know but need to cut down on the easy misses from last week.

All of this assumes our tackling/contested ball/etc are all maintained from the last two outings.


Jeemak: As others have said we need to defend Richmond as a team much more comprehensively than we did West Coast. Individual match ups will of course play a part, but it's up to the team as a whole to refuse to allow themselves to collectively be caught out of position when we lose the footy in our forward 50m.

When we win the ball in our defensive 50m we need to be prepared to use the corridor rather than get caught wide, to give our forwards as much clean ball as possible. At the G you're looking at 1.5 less kicks to get to goal if you move the ball on a more direct basis.

Whilst winning the contested ball doesn't necessarily have a material impact on the final score, we need to be competitive in this area and also pull out all stops to reduce the amount of uncontested ball the Tigers win. If we let the Tigers win the contested ball easily they'll be a much better chance of feeding to the outside and cutting us up with their run.

My verdict: Dogs by 18 points

[Ozza]

Good write up.

A few comments on some of the areas you've covered. Although I'd like Hrovat in the side, I'm a fraction worried that a straight swap for Goodes sees us with too many light framed/short players. Having said this, agree Hrovat is class, and Honeychurch was good on the weekend - albeit ran a bit out of puff in the second half.

With the defensive match ups - seeing as Morris hasn't gone that well on Riewoldt in the past, and with our preference generally, to have Morris on the mid sized players;
I would propose that Roughie and Talia take Riewoldt and Griffiths - where Roughead will take whoever is deepest (closest to goal) and Talia higher up. Griffiths started deepest on Thursday night - and I'd prefer Rough in those top of the goal square contests. Whereas I'm comfortable with Talia running with Riewoldt if he is working up and back.

Richmond use their 3 good mids (Martin primarily, and Deledio and Cotchin often) to rotate forward. I would reserve Morris for Martin and Cotchin when they are forward. Martin is just too big, powerful and dangerous for anyone bar Martin when he goes forward. When Martin is on ball, Jongy may be a good size/speed match up for him. Its a bit risky given Jong's inexperience, and I'm not suggesting a hard tag - but I'd prefer Wallis to run with (not hard tag either) Cotchin.

In attack, they get a heap of drive from Houli off half back - so Picken is the obvious match up here.

Its also pretty important that Minson plays well. Maric torched him twice in 2013 (Maric was injued in last years contest...when we won).

My biggest worry is our inexperience at the G. I think we will have plenty of players looking lost out there - hopefully they can adjust early.

They will be concerned about some of our forwards and don't have obvious match ups for a few of them. Although Redpath was hopeless on Saturday night - I'd like to see us keep the faith, and him play again.

I think we can be competitive, but not win at the MCG against Richmond at this stage.

[1eyedog]

Do most people think Roughie is the right match up for Riewoldt? So Talia on the bigger Griffiths who has been playing deep -and kicking goals, 3 against Carlton). Can Roughie go with Riewoldt for 4 quarters?

Richmond starting scoring freely against Carlton after quarter time due to risky counter attacks so I'm assuming they will try the same against us. Hopefully we learnt a few lessons with regard to this from the West Coast game.

[always right]

Roughy should play on whichever forward plays deep. If that's Riewoldt so be it.

We need Roughy to play on the opposition best forward rather than continually throw Morris the challenge. It may not end well but it's critical for our future that we develop the younger guys to take the responsibility.

On a separate note....who do we think Richmond will send to our guns? I'm tipping the big bodied McIntosh to have first crack at Bonts, Taylor Hunt to go to MacCrae, Morris to Murph and Rance to Stringer. The tiges actually match up alright against us IMO.

[1eyedog]

Roughy should play on whichever forward plays deep. If that's Riewoldt so be it.

We need Roughy to play on the opposition best forward rather than continually throw Morris the challenge. It may not end well but it's critical for our future that we develop the younger guys to take the responsibility.

On a separate note....who do we think Richmond will send to our guns? I'm tipping the big bodied McIntosh to have first crack at Bonts, Taylor Hunt to go to MacCrae, Morris to Murph and Rance to Stringer. The tiges actually match up alright against us IMO.

Grimes to Grant if Grant starts and plays forward so who gets Crameri? Grimes to Crameri if Grant is sub or does not play forward? Who covers Boyd and Redpath?

[LostDoggy]

Rance is quality and it will be a tough afternoon for whoever he is matched up on.

I agree he will go to Stringer first up. I actually think Stringer is a tough matchup for Rance. If Stringer can cause spillages and not let Rance take contested grabs I would back Jake once the ball hits the deck.

Carlton smashed Richmond in the clearances last week. Our clearances during the NAB challenge and Round 1 have been a massive strength for us, particually stoppages around the ground.

Against Collingwood we won the stoppages 39-22
Against West Coast we won the stoppages 35-19

If this dominance around the ground can continue we can generate enough inside 50's for our talented forward line to convert a winning score and if we bring the tackle pressure again (94 against the Eagles, most by any team in Round 1 by some margin) then I'm struggling to find any reason why we won't roll the Tiges and be 2 & zip.

[LostDoggy]

Grimes to Grant if Grant starts and plays forward so who gets Crameri? Grimes to Crameri if Grant is sub or does not play forward? Who covers Boyd and Redpath?

I would say Grimes and Chaplin would get first cracks at Redpath and Boyd. Leaving Crameri with a Batchelor/Vlastuin type.

[comrade]

Let's hope Rance goes to Stringer and has such a torrid time of it that he decides to join us rather than spending his career getting rag dolled by Jakey.

[boydogs]

Against Collingwood we won the stoppages 39-22
Against West Coast we won the stoppages 35-19

That's impressive without Libba, Griffen & Stevens, and playing guys like Jong, Honeychurch & Goodes instead who have limited experience as AFL mids

I can help out with a match preview or two if the site is struggling to find people to do them

[Bulldog Joe]

I would expect Roughy to go to Griffiths and Talia for Riewoldt.

We do need to have someone lock down on Edwards.

[bornadog]

Against Collingwood we won the stoppages 39-22
Against West Coast we won the stoppages 35-19 .

AFL Stats for round 1 show:

* 3rd in Cont Poss.
* 3rd in Clearances
* 1st in Tackles
* 3rd in Stoppages
* 4th in Total Disposals
* 5th for inside 50's
* Last in rebound 50
* 17th in cont marks

We still need to rebound quicker out of defense and take more marks around the ground and inside 50.

[Mofra]

I'm a little concerned over our drive from the backline - S Morris seems to be quite good in his role, and he will obviously go to Murph.
Does Boydy become our go-to man to try and get off the leash?

We should be able to match them for run for once - Bonti, JJ, Dahl all need to spend decent amounts of time in the midfield. If we get caught wide it should hurt us less than in previous years as Toyd will anchor himself to the goalsquare - all he needs to do is ensure he is never outmarked by his opponent and we'll be fine (Stringer is a fantastic crumber as well as a mark).

[Happy Days]

I would expect Roughy to go to Griffiths and Talia for Riewoldt.


Agree with these matchups - if Richmond are allowed to move the ball quickly between the arcs then Riewoldt will kill Roughy dead. We need to be diligent matching up Talia on him too, and be ready to witch Morris onto him.

I'd have Roughead on Griffiths, Talia on Riewoldt, Morris on Martin (if he plays forward as much as I think he will/he did last week)/the resting mid, Wood to Edwards and JJ on Lloyd/Gordon/Lambert (?), with their Morris going to Murphy.

I obviously don't rate Edwards as much as you; why do you think we need to put attention into him? IMO there's several more players that need stopping, and you can't tag out everyone.

[1eyedog]

I would expect Roughy to go to Griffiths and Talia for Riewoldt.

We do need to have someone lock down on Edwards.

I think it needs to be Picken.

[always right]

I think it needs to be Picken.

I think Picken is needed for Houli....unless we think Dickson can play a defensive role and also become dangerous.

Interested in people wanting Talia to go to Riewoldt due to Roughy lacking the speed to go with him. Is Talia really any quicker?

[Ozza]

I think it needs to be Picken.

I would be keeping Picken at half forward. Negative role on Houli. And Murphy goes to Edwards. Bob could really set us up the other way on Edwards.

[Bulldog Joe]

I would be keeping Picken at half forward. Negative role on Houli. And Murphy goes to Edwards. Bob could really set us up the other way on Edwards.

Expect Morris of Richmond to be playing defensively on Bob.

[1eyedog]

Yes Morris will almost certainly play on Bob. If it's Picken on Houli fair enough but Edwards is their contested ball machine and their best clearance player.

[Happy Days]

Yes Morris will almost certainly play on Bob. If it's Picken on Houli fair enough but Edwards is their contested ball machine and their best clearance player.

Seriously what am I missing with Edwards? He looked good the other night I guess but Cotchin and Miles are far superior clearance players. Cotchin outcleared (?) him by 3:2 last year, and Miles had ~10 more clearances than Titch in about half the games.

[1eyedog]

Watch him again on Saturday. Super hard working, brings others into the game, is quick, kicks goals. They rate him very highly.

[GVGjr]

Great thread BT. Thanks

[Go_Dogs]

I noted with interest that Champion Data rated Edwards as elite. Admittedly, I haven't been aware of his transition from small forward who can play high to contested ball winning mid, but I still think more attention needs to go to Martin and Deledio. Cotchin I'm happy for a head to head with Wallis based on my perception his disposal won't hurt us as much.

I think we're a real chance this week if we bring our intensity and kicking boots.

[lemmon]

We'll need to be very clever with how we match up on their mids who rotate forward, especially Dusty Martin. Easton Wood would be well suited 1v1 but I'd even consider sending Dale to him such is his impact. If he kicks goals they seem to win.

Whoever Rance goes to will have a tough day and may even be more effective attempting to drag him up to the wings and flanks, he's the best defender in the competition at the moment. Absolutely toweled up Henderson on the weekend. Is a wonderful athlete, strong in the air and quick on the ground and is starting to build his running game, he cut through half back a few times and his disposal seems to be getting there finally. It will be tough dragging him away from the danger zone but I'd happily sacrifice one of our big guy's games if it means Rance is taken away from as many contests as possible.

[1eyedog]

Our set up during their kick ins will be critical. They scored heavily against Carlton when Carlton scored a behind. They play on at kick ins at every opportunity, usually led by Lids who will be out. Lids is a pretty good player for them now and is a big out.

[ratsmac]

I noted with interest that Champion Data rated Edwards as elite. Admittedly, I haven't been aware of his transition from small forward who can play high to contested ball winning mid, but I still think more attention needs to go to Martin and Deledio. Cotchin I'm happy for a head to head with Wallis based on my perception his disposal won't hurt us as much.

I think we're a real chance this week if we bring our intensity and kicking boots.

I'm pretty sure Delelio has been suspended.

[1eyedog]

Lids isn't playing.

I think they'll bring in Astbury for Grimes as well. Astbury has been in good touch through the preseason and I think they'll need him down back.