Daughter of the West
15-04-2015, 08:54 AM
How Bottom Teams Miss Out on Champions
If they are prone to change direction suddenly, the AFL's prevailing winds of April suggest that Fremantle's Nat Fyfe is the game's premier player, and that Bulldog Marcus Bontempelli stands apart as a teenager who can influence results.
That pair are rivalled for adulation by Patrick Dangerfield, the AFL's most prized free agent, while Dyson Heppell has emerged as the Bombers' top gun. At various stages, Heppell and Bontempelli have been likened to Collingwood skipper Scott Pendlebury, who increasingly resembles the lone ranger in the eviscerated Magpie midfield.
The aforementioned feted five have more in common than exceptional ability to play in the midfield. All of them are tall midfielders, with Bontempelli creating a new model – the Mercedes Bont? – as a 192-centimetre midfielder who can win clearances and then float forward to out-size smaller mids. Dangerfield, who is listed at 189, also has explosive speed and power.
Like Geelong's champion Joel Selwood, these five super midfielders were not selected inside the top three in the national draft. Yet, they are viewed as the best player from their draft year. This quintet, plus Selwood, were selected somewhere between picks 4 and 20. The same applies to Lance Franklin, a freakish forward rather than midfielder, who was pick 5 in 2004.
There were reasons why the competition's very best midfielders were not selected at picks 1, 2 or 3 and some of these reasons made sense – even if that's no consolation to the likes of Melbourne (2009), Carlton (2005, 2006, 2007) and Gold Coast (2010), who had first call. The ramifications of why these players were picked at 4 (Bontempelli), 5 (Pendlebury), 7 (Selwood), 8 (Heppell), 10 (Dangerfield) and 20 (Fyfe) are important in a competition that is striving for socialised equality. The shared characteristics of the fab five (Selwood is a different story) tell a tale that should be examined by whichever clubs finish with top three picks this year.
One common trait was their size – none is shorter than 189 centimetres. Another theme is that none of the five played the bulk of their draft year in the midfield proper. Bontempelli, as recruiters recalled, played half-back in 2013 until he was moved on to the ball late that year. Heppell, too, was a half-back who went into the middle in the course of 2010, while Pendlebury and Fyfe played outside the centre square as wing and wing/half-back respectively. Fyfe also played forward for Western Australia in the national under 18s, when he was all arms and legs, more scrawn than brawn.
Dangerfield played forward for the Geelong Falcons until the latter stages of 2007 and, as with Pendlebury, Danger was a bottom-age 17-year-old, whose latent talents were still precipitating.
This raises another important trait of the draft bargain champions – an injured Selwood excepted, they weren't as fully formed or consistent at the junior level as those picked ahead of them. More comparable to thoroughbred Derby winners than precocious Golden Slipper champs, they were drafted on the basis of what they might do, not what they'd done.
In recruiting-speak, they were "less exposed" than those selected in the top couple. Pendlebury, Fyfe and Heppell did not make the AFL's Australian Institute of Sport squad in their draft year; Bontempelli, who barely made the AIS squad, was still playing school footy with Marcellin.
"There appeared to be significant upside on their previous performances," said Collingwood recruiting manager Derek Hine of these discount champions, adding that most of them – certainly Heppell, Pendlebury and Bontempelli – "performed well during the relevant draft years' finals series".
Recruiters agree that one reason why players with such immense upside are overlooked is that the teams on the bottom are less apt to take risks.
By definition, the bottom teams – unless they've had horrendous injuries – need certain 200-gamers, and are less able to gamble on Pendlebury, Bontempelli and Dangerfield becoming the "anything" they became. No.1 picks tend to be safe choices, such as Brett Deledio, David Swallow, Bryce Gibbs, Marc Murphy or, more lately, power forwards who aren't easily found. Hawthorn picked steady Jarryd Roughead (No.2) over freaky Franklin (No.5), after all.
Carlton had such a horrendous playing list from 2005 until 2007 that they couldn't afford a gamble on Pendlebury morphing into an elite inside player, on Dangerfield's kicking, or on Selwood's wounded knee. If the Dees didn't have Fyfe assessed correctly, then that's true of all clubs – he was drafted as Freo's second choice.
Richmond preferred Reece Conca, supposedly a better kick, over Heppell.
The moral of the story? The champions aren't necessarily "morals" to succeed when they're taken.
From http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/how-bottom-teams-miss-out-on-the-champions-20150414-1ml542.html
I love the notion of the Mercedes Bont, I think it might be my new favourite description!
If they are prone to change direction suddenly, the AFL's prevailing winds of April suggest that Fremantle's Nat Fyfe is the game's premier player, and that Bulldog Marcus Bontempelli stands apart as a teenager who can influence results.
That pair are rivalled for adulation by Patrick Dangerfield, the AFL's most prized free agent, while Dyson Heppell has emerged as the Bombers' top gun. At various stages, Heppell and Bontempelli have been likened to Collingwood skipper Scott Pendlebury, who increasingly resembles the lone ranger in the eviscerated Magpie midfield.
The aforementioned feted five have more in common than exceptional ability to play in the midfield. All of them are tall midfielders, with Bontempelli creating a new model – the Mercedes Bont? – as a 192-centimetre midfielder who can win clearances and then float forward to out-size smaller mids. Dangerfield, who is listed at 189, also has explosive speed and power.
Like Geelong's champion Joel Selwood, these five super midfielders were not selected inside the top three in the national draft. Yet, they are viewed as the best player from their draft year. This quintet, plus Selwood, were selected somewhere between picks 4 and 20. The same applies to Lance Franklin, a freakish forward rather than midfielder, who was pick 5 in 2004.
There were reasons why the competition's very best midfielders were not selected at picks 1, 2 or 3 and some of these reasons made sense – even if that's no consolation to the likes of Melbourne (2009), Carlton (2005, 2006, 2007) and Gold Coast (2010), who had first call. The ramifications of why these players were picked at 4 (Bontempelli), 5 (Pendlebury), 7 (Selwood), 8 (Heppell), 10 (Dangerfield) and 20 (Fyfe) are important in a competition that is striving for socialised equality. The shared characteristics of the fab five (Selwood is a different story) tell a tale that should be examined by whichever clubs finish with top three picks this year.
One common trait was their size – none is shorter than 189 centimetres. Another theme is that none of the five played the bulk of their draft year in the midfield proper. Bontempelli, as recruiters recalled, played half-back in 2013 until he was moved on to the ball late that year. Heppell, too, was a half-back who went into the middle in the course of 2010, while Pendlebury and Fyfe played outside the centre square as wing and wing/half-back respectively. Fyfe also played forward for Western Australia in the national under 18s, when he was all arms and legs, more scrawn than brawn.
Dangerfield played forward for the Geelong Falcons until the latter stages of 2007 and, as with Pendlebury, Danger was a bottom-age 17-year-old, whose latent talents were still precipitating.
This raises another important trait of the draft bargain champions – an injured Selwood excepted, they weren't as fully formed or consistent at the junior level as those picked ahead of them. More comparable to thoroughbred Derby winners than precocious Golden Slipper champs, they were drafted on the basis of what they might do, not what they'd done.
In recruiting-speak, they were "less exposed" than those selected in the top couple. Pendlebury, Fyfe and Heppell did not make the AFL's Australian Institute of Sport squad in their draft year; Bontempelli, who barely made the AIS squad, was still playing school footy with Marcellin.
"There appeared to be significant upside on their previous performances," said Collingwood recruiting manager Derek Hine of these discount champions, adding that most of them – certainly Heppell, Pendlebury and Bontempelli – "performed well during the relevant draft years' finals series".
Recruiters agree that one reason why players with such immense upside are overlooked is that the teams on the bottom are less apt to take risks.
By definition, the bottom teams – unless they've had horrendous injuries – need certain 200-gamers, and are less able to gamble on Pendlebury, Bontempelli and Dangerfield becoming the "anything" they became. No.1 picks tend to be safe choices, such as Brett Deledio, David Swallow, Bryce Gibbs, Marc Murphy or, more lately, power forwards who aren't easily found. Hawthorn picked steady Jarryd Roughead (No.2) over freaky Franklin (No.5), after all.
Carlton had such a horrendous playing list from 2005 until 2007 that they couldn't afford a gamble on Pendlebury morphing into an elite inside player, on Dangerfield's kicking, or on Selwood's wounded knee. If the Dees didn't have Fyfe assessed correctly, then that's true of all clubs – he was drafted as Freo's second choice.
Richmond preferred Reece Conca, supposedly a better kick, over Heppell.
The moral of the story? The champions aren't necessarily "morals" to succeed when they're taken.
From http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/how-bottom-teams-miss-out-on-the-champions-20150414-1ml542.html
I love the notion of the Mercedes Bont, I think it might be my new favourite description!