Bulldog4life
11-06-2015, 11:47 AM
http://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-premiership/why-the-5-5-western-bulldogs-have-been-more-impressive-than-7-3-collingwood-thanks-to-the-fixture/story-e6frf3e3-1227389942116
THE common wisdom in the footy world right now is that the Magpies are flying.
Sitting at 7-3 and in the top four after finishing 11th last season, Collingwood must have made a big jump this season, right?
But what if we were to tell you that all seven of their wins have come against the bottom seven?
It’s true — the Pies have beaten North Melbourne (12th), Essendon (13th), St Kilda (14th), Melbourne (15th), Brisbane (16th), Carlton (17th) and Gold Coast (18th).
Meanwhile, their losses have come against Adelaide (7th), Richmond (8th) and Geelong (10th).
We’re not having a go, Pies fans. But an analysis of their draw so far shows that they’ve had an easy run. The easiest, in fact.
Compare their draw to that of the Western Bulldogs. After an exciting start to the year, the Dogs are now languishing in 11th spot, mid-table at 5-5 on the season.
But each of the Bulldogs’ five wins has come against a current top eight side — Sydney (2nd), West Coast (3rd), GWS Giants (5th), Adelaide (7th) and Richmond (8th).
Losses to St Kilda and Melbourne haven’t helped them, but an objective look at those results would suggest that the Bulldogs at 5-5 have been more impressive than the Magpies at 7-3.
So as we enter the bye rounds, it’s a perfect time to take a real look at the ladder, and who’s had a dream run so far — and who’s had a shocker.
MAY BE BETTER THAN YOU THINK
Western Bulldogs (5-5, 11th)
Average ladder position of opponents so far: 7 (hardest)
The Bulldogs have had the hardest draw so far in 2015, facing every current top eight side except Collingwood. So their 5-5 record is a testament to their incredible form this season. They’ve posted two more wins than any other team against top eight sides — Fremantle is alone in second, with three.
Where they’ve disappointed is in very winnable games against Melbourne and St Kilda. The fear for Luke Beveridge has to be that the Dogs are going to in a way pull a 2014 North Melbourne — a team that beat every other top eight side, but dropped games to those in the bottom 10.
But if the Bulldogs can pull it together in rematches against the Demons and the Saints coming later this season, along with taking the points in three winnable games against the Queensland sides (two against the Lions, one against the Suns), they’ll just need to post a couple more upsets to reach that magical 12 win mark that almost always means finals footy.
Teams they play twice this year: Port Adelaide, West Coast, Brisbane, Melbourne, St Kilda
Melbourne (3-7, 15th)
Average ladder position of opponents so far: 7.1 (2nd hardest)
Paul Roos’ Demons have been lauded at times for their improvement this season, and it’s deserved considering their fixture so far. They’ve faced every top eight side except West Coast, although with one win in those games (against Richmond).
So we’re not saying that they should be challenging for finals this year — but if they can perform as well as we’ve seen them do in their upcoming games against the teams around them, it’s not out of the realms of possibility for them to reach 8 wins for the first time since 2011.
With games against St Kilda (twice), Brisbane and Carlton still to come, they’re at the very least a strong chance of surpassing last year’s win total of four.
Teams they play twice this year: Fremantle, Collingwood, Western Bulldogs, GWS Giants, St Kilda
North Melbourne (5-5, 12th)
Average ladder position of opponents so far: 7.7 (3rd hardest)
The AFL’s box of chocolates has made a bit more sense this season, but they’re still prone to producing those awful outings that lead Brad Scott to threaten mass changes to his side, which at this point seems to happen four times a year.
Wins against Geelong and West Coast appear to be marks of quality for a side with premiership aspirations based on their list make-up. They’re only a game out of the eight, but thrashings by Fremantle and Hawthorn aren’t the mark of a flag fancy, and neither are poor outings against teams they need to beat to make the top four in Adelaide and Collingwood.
They double-up against Essendon and Richmond this season based on the bracketing system of fixturing the AFL uses, which will surely be crucial in determining the order of the bottom half of the top eight. Which, unfortunately for them, appears to be where they are as a club at the moment.
Teams they play twice this year: Geelong, Fremantle, Essendon, Richmond, Brisbane
MAY BE WORSE THAN YOU THINK
Collingwood (7-3, 4th)
Average ladder position of opponents so far: 13 (easiest)
The counters to arguments about Collingwood’s draw this season are simple; you can only play who’s in front of you, and a win banked early counts just as much as one late in the season.
But that doesn’t mean that Pies fans shouldn’t be concerned about their post-bye run. A clash with fellow surprise packets GWS will be a fascinating one this coming weekend, before the Magpies face off with Fremantle, Hawthorn, Port Adelaide and West Coast in four straight weeks — the games with the Dockers & the Power both being interstate on Thursday nights.
If they can win two of those, they’re surely certain finalists. If they can win one, they should be satisfied. If they don’t win any... well, last season the Pies started 8-3 before going 3-8 to finish all square. Just thought we’d point that out.
Teams they play twice this year: Geelong, Essendon, Richmond, Carlton, Melbourne
West Coast (7-3, 3rd)
Average ladder position of opponents so far: 11.3 (2nd easiest)
The tricky thing when trying to judge the Eagles is that they don’t do what their fellow House of Pain tenants do — take their feet off the pedals.
Purely on percentage, West Coast finished 6th last season, and this year on that measure they sit second. That’s not a criticism — they’re safely in the top eight right now because of it, as even if they lost a few games and plummeted down the table, they’d lead teams on the same record as them. But the question becomes how much value can you put in four wins at home against Carlton, GWS, Gold Coast & Geelong by a combined 304 points?
Their loss to North Melbourne this past week was telling. If the ladder is to be believed, that’s a team they should definitely beat. But when you consider that West Coast’s top eight opponents - all two of them - have been their local rivals and GWS, who before this season had won two games on the road ever, there’s definitely more to be learned about the Eagles.
But Eagles fans, we give you full permission to call us parochial when it’s a derby in the Grand Final.
Teams they play twice this year: Fremantle, Adelaide, Gold Coast, Western Bulldogs, St Kilda
GWS Giants (7-3, 5th)
Average ladder position of opponents so far: 10.9 (equal 3rd easiest)
Analysing the Giants is about trying to figure out how much better they are than last season, when they won six games.
Last year, they beat Melbourne, Carlton, Brisbane, the Bulldogs and Sydney. This year, they’ve done the first three already, while getting close to beating the Swans and disappointing against the Dogs. Add in wins against St Kilda and Gold Coast, who aren’t finals contenders, and the season as a whole looks a lot less impressive.
But then you look at the wins against Hawthorn and Adelaide. The win over the reigning premiers was brilliant, of course. But Adelaide is the one that really looked like a finals contender beating another finals contender.
If that form persists, then they’re a chance to debut in September. And with rematches to come against the Blues, Demons and Saints, 10 wins appears likely. Keep impressing and get two more victories, and they’re probably in.
But it’s never that simple. And that’s where they have to be at least somewhat concerned.
Teams they play twice this year: Sydney, Gold Coast, Carlton, Melbourne, St Kilda
AND AN INTERESTING ONE…
Hawthorn (6-4, 6th)
Average ladder position of opponents so far: 10.9 (equal 3rd easiest)
What you can do with the Hawks is look at their four losses and explain them away. Essendon? ASADA relief. Port Adelaide? INXS belief. GWS? No Hodge or Lewis. Sydney? Thriller.
Not only that, but the average margin in those losses was a single goal. So you can’t say that the Hawks really look like a mid-table side right now.
But the point here is more to say that it’s not going to get a whole lot easier. Yes, they probably should win their next three after the bye with Adelaide, Essendon and Collingwood. But they’ve lost at the Oval this year already. They’ve lost to the Dons this year already. And Collingwood are above them on the ladder! And then they’ve got the Dockers and Swans after that! It could be a disaster!
They’re probably going to be fine. We know.
Probably.
THE common wisdom in the footy world right now is that the Magpies are flying.
Sitting at 7-3 and in the top four after finishing 11th last season, Collingwood must have made a big jump this season, right?
But what if we were to tell you that all seven of their wins have come against the bottom seven?
It’s true — the Pies have beaten North Melbourne (12th), Essendon (13th), St Kilda (14th), Melbourne (15th), Brisbane (16th), Carlton (17th) and Gold Coast (18th).
Meanwhile, their losses have come against Adelaide (7th), Richmond (8th) and Geelong (10th).
We’re not having a go, Pies fans. But an analysis of their draw so far shows that they’ve had an easy run. The easiest, in fact.
Compare their draw to that of the Western Bulldogs. After an exciting start to the year, the Dogs are now languishing in 11th spot, mid-table at 5-5 on the season.
But each of the Bulldogs’ five wins has come against a current top eight side — Sydney (2nd), West Coast (3rd), GWS Giants (5th), Adelaide (7th) and Richmond (8th).
Losses to St Kilda and Melbourne haven’t helped them, but an objective look at those results would suggest that the Bulldogs at 5-5 have been more impressive than the Magpies at 7-3.
So as we enter the bye rounds, it’s a perfect time to take a real look at the ladder, and who’s had a dream run so far — and who’s had a shocker.
MAY BE BETTER THAN YOU THINK
Western Bulldogs (5-5, 11th)
Average ladder position of opponents so far: 7 (hardest)
The Bulldogs have had the hardest draw so far in 2015, facing every current top eight side except Collingwood. So their 5-5 record is a testament to their incredible form this season. They’ve posted two more wins than any other team against top eight sides — Fremantle is alone in second, with three.
Where they’ve disappointed is in very winnable games against Melbourne and St Kilda. The fear for Luke Beveridge has to be that the Dogs are going to in a way pull a 2014 North Melbourne — a team that beat every other top eight side, but dropped games to those in the bottom 10.
But if the Bulldogs can pull it together in rematches against the Demons and the Saints coming later this season, along with taking the points in three winnable games against the Queensland sides (two against the Lions, one against the Suns), they’ll just need to post a couple more upsets to reach that magical 12 win mark that almost always means finals footy.
Teams they play twice this year: Port Adelaide, West Coast, Brisbane, Melbourne, St Kilda
Melbourne (3-7, 15th)
Average ladder position of opponents so far: 7.1 (2nd hardest)
Paul Roos’ Demons have been lauded at times for their improvement this season, and it’s deserved considering their fixture so far. They’ve faced every top eight side except West Coast, although with one win in those games (against Richmond).
So we’re not saying that they should be challenging for finals this year — but if they can perform as well as we’ve seen them do in their upcoming games against the teams around them, it’s not out of the realms of possibility for them to reach 8 wins for the first time since 2011.
With games against St Kilda (twice), Brisbane and Carlton still to come, they’re at the very least a strong chance of surpassing last year’s win total of four.
Teams they play twice this year: Fremantle, Collingwood, Western Bulldogs, GWS Giants, St Kilda
North Melbourne (5-5, 12th)
Average ladder position of opponents so far: 7.7 (3rd hardest)
The AFL’s box of chocolates has made a bit more sense this season, but they’re still prone to producing those awful outings that lead Brad Scott to threaten mass changes to his side, which at this point seems to happen four times a year.
Wins against Geelong and West Coast appear to be marks of quality for a side with premiership aspirations based on their list make-up. They’re only a game out of the eight, but thrashings by Fremantle and Hawthorn aren’t the mark of a flag fancy, and neither are poor outings against teams they need to beat to make the top four in Adelaide and Collingwood.
They double-up against Essendon and Richmond this season based on the bracketing system of fixturing the AFL uses, which will surely be crucial in determining the order of the bottom half of the top eight. Which, unfortunately for them, appears to be where they are as a club at the moment.
Teams they play twice this year: Geelong, Fremantle, Essendon, Richmond, Brisbane
MAY BE WORSE THAN YOU THINK
Collingwood (7-3, 4th)
Average ladder position of opponents so far: 13 (easiest)
The counters to arguments about Collingwood’s draw this season are simple; you can only play who’s in front of you, and a win banked early counts just as much as one late in the season.
But that doesn’t mean that Pies fans shouldn’t be concerned about their post-bye run. A clash with fellow surprise packets GWS will be a fascinating one this coming weekend, before the Magpies face off with Fremantle, Hawthorn, Port Adelaide and West Coast in four straight weeks — the games with the Dockers & the Power both being interstate on Thursday nights.
If they can win two of those, they’re surely certain finalists. If they can win one, they should be satisfied. If they don’t win any... well, last season the Pies started 8-3 before going 3-8 to finish all square. Just thought we’d point that out.
Teams they play twice this year: Geelong, Essendon, Richmond, Carlton, Melbourne
West Coast (7-3, 3rd)
Average ladder position of opponents so far: 11.3 (2nd easiest)
The tricky thing when trying to judge the Eagles is that they don’t do what their fellow House of Pain tenants do — take their feet off the pedals.
Purely on percentage, West Coast finished 6th last season, and this year on that measure they sit second. That’s not a criticism — they’re safely in the top eight right now because of it, as even if they lost a few games and plummeted down the table, they’d lead teams on the same record as them. But the question becomes how much value can you put in four wins at home against Carlton, GWS, Gold Coast & Geelong by a combined 304 points?
Their loss to North Melbourne this past week was telling. If the ladder is to be believed, that’s a team they should definitely beat. But when you consider that West Coast’s top eight opponents - all two of them - have been their local rivals and GWS, who before this season had won two games on the road ever, there’s definitely more to be learned about the Eagles.
But Eagles fans, we give you full permission to call us parochial when it’s a derby in the Grand Final.
Teams they play twice this year: Fremantle, Adelaide, Gold Coast, Western Bulldogs, St Kilda
GWS Giants (7-3, 5th)
Average ladder position of opponents so far: 10.9 (equal 3rd easiest)
Analysing the Giants is about trying to figure out how much better they are than last season, when they won six games.
Last year, they beat Melbourne, Carlton, Brisbane, the Bulldogs and Sydney. This year, they’ve done the first three already, while getting close to beating the Swans and disappointing against the Dogs. Add in wins against St Kilda and Gold Coast, who aren’t finals contenders, and the season as a whole looks a lot less impressive.
But then you look at the wins against Hawthorn and Adelaide. The win over the reigning premiers was brilliant, of course. But Adelaide is the one that really looked like a finals contender beating another finals contender.
If that form persists, then they’re a chance to debut in September. And with rematches to come against the Blues, Demons and Saints, 10 wins appears likely. Keep impressing and get two more victories, and they’re probably in.
But it’s never that simple. And that’s where they have to be at least somewhat concerned.
Teams they play twice this year: Sydney, Gold Coast, Carlton, Melbourne, St Kilda
AND AN INTERESTING ONE…
Hawthorn (6-4, 6th)
Average ladder position of opponents so far: 10.9 (equal 3rd easiest)
What you can do with the Hawks is look at their four losses and explain them away. Essendon? ASADA relief. Port Adelaide? INXS belief. GWS? No Hodge or Lewis. Sydney? Thriller.
Not only that, but the average margin in those losses was a single goal. So you can’t say that the Hawks really look like a mid-table side right now.
But the point here is more to say that it’s not going to get a whole lot easier. Yes, they probably should win their next three after the bye with Adelaide, Essendon and Collingwood. But they’ve lost at the Oval this year already. They’ve lost to the Dons this year already. And Collingwood are above them on the ladder! And then they’ve got the Dockers and Swans after that! It could be a disaster!
They’re probably going to be fine. We know.
Probably.