So what does our percentage tell us?

[bulldogtragic]

1645 points for

3rd highest scoring teams. WCE and Hawks are better and have a genuine KPF worth about the difference in extra scoring above us (2 goals a game from Kennedy and Roughy). When Tommy Boyd gets there, we should be able to make this ground and more. But 35 goals in the last 3 quarters in the last two weeks tell us we can score quick and heavy. Already.


1405 points against

6th best in the league. We've had injuries to Hamling, Roberts and Roughie yet still been good. If we can get a genuine defender with natural development of those and Zaine etc. We could expect this to drop too. Why we need to shop for a key back.


Things are good.

[LostDoggy]

Our defence was scratchy early but excellent over recent rounds. Because we play at Etihad a lot, will tend to be in more higher scoring games.

[azabob]

Our defence was scratchy early but excellent over recent rounds. Because we play at Etihad a lot, will tend to be in more higher scoring games.

Don't quote me, but I don't think that necessarily rings true. It should, but doesn't.

[LostDoggy]

In the first 10 rounds of the year, we conceded 89 points per game, which is the performance of a midtable defence. Since the bye, over 8 games, we have conceded 65 points per game, which is top 4 team levels.

I don't think this is because individuals have improved as much as it is about the team gelling better and better.

[LostDoggy]

Bevo mentioned in his post-game press conference that we'd seen a 28-point turnaround. 8 points in attack and 20 in defence. Sums it up nicely, really.

[bulldogtragic]

Dogs: Points For 2101 Ag 1825 (115%)
Crows: Points For 2106 Ag 1821 (115%)

Crows: 2 premiership points behind (cancelled match)

How close a statiscal matching is this!?

[LostDoggy]

Dogs: Points For 2101 Ag 1825
Crows: Points For 2106 Ag 1821

Crows: 2 premiership points behind (cancelled match)

How close a statiscal matching is this!?

Given they played 1 less match, I guess it shows overall they're better offensively, we're better defensively. But, yeah, remarkably similar numbers.

[bulldogtragic]

Given they played 1 less match, I guess it shows overall they're better offensively, we're better defensively. But, yeah, remarkably similar numbers.

True, both around 115%.

[Bulldog Joe]

Interesting when we compare to Adelaide.

There is a stat floating around that only West Coast, Hawthorn and Adelaide meet a premiership criteria of scoring 100pts per game and conceding less than 86.

We have averaged 95.5 points for and conceded 83.
Adelaide have scored 1 point in total over 100 pts per game so effectively 4.5 pts ahead in scoring. They have conceded 86.7 so lose 4.2.

So we are win/loss difference 0.3 pts per game adrift of Adelaide.

[Murphy'sLore]

Gee, lucky we've got that home ground advantage to nose us over the line.

[1eyedog]

Gee, lucky we've got that home ground advantage to nose us over the line.

Exactly what are Adelaide's numbers in Melbourne? That's all that matters.

In 10 away games Adelaide has score more than 100 points twice, including a 177 point final score against a lack lustre Essendon at Etihad. They scored more than 100 points at home on 6 occassions.

They're a 4-6 goal better team at home. Playing in Melbourne full stop is a massive advantage for us.

[LostDoggy]

With regard to that Premiership equation, it would surprise most, given our attacking style and high proportion of Etihad games, that we meet the defensive criteria (even more comfortably than Adelaide) but fall short with our offensive output.

[Bulldog Joe]

Exactly what are Adelaide's numbers in Melbourne? That's all that matters.

In 10 away games Adelaide has score more than 100 points twice, including a 177 point final score against a lack lustre Essendon at Etihad. They scored more than 100 points at home on 6 occassions.

They're a 4-6 goal better team at home. Playing in Melbourne full stop is a massive advantage for us.

Interesting that if they score 1 less goal in that game they fall short of the 100 pt average score of the season.
Stats can do some odd things.

[Happy Days]

Exactly what are Adelaide's numbers in Melbourne? That's all that matters.

Adelaide have only played at the MCG 6 times in the past 3 years - once in 2015, twice in 2014 and twice in 2013 - for 2 wins and 4 losses.

Round 10, 2015, vs. Carlton: 99 - 90 (W)
Round 10, 2014, vs. Carlton: 76 - 81 (L)
Round 18, 2014, vs. Collingwood: 98 - 82 (W)
Round 5, 2013, vs. Carlton: 83 - 115 (L)
Round 12, 2013, vs. Richmond: 72 - 110 (L)
Round 16, 2013, vs. Collingwood: 84 - 111 (L)

So that's an average of 85.33 points per game, with no scores over 100, against an average of 98.17 points against, with 3 opposition scores over 100. Also interesting to note that they have only won the uncontested possession count once at the MCG in this time (against Collingwood in 2014), and were particularly smashed in it by that pathetic joke of a Carlton side 269-184.

There are of course a lot of variables at play here - the 2013 side that lost 3 times, each by over 5 goals, is totally different to the 2015 one; even the side that barely won against the wooden spooners earlier this year had a different coach. But the stats would seem to indicate if we kick over 100 points and use the width of the ground better (not really ideal for us) then we should win.