Ladder sliders, risers, stalling 2016?

[Ghost Dog]

Nominate a few clubs you think will move up or down at least 4 ladder positions and 1 club going nowhere. Nice if a few attempted facts are given.

Risers
Bulldogs - Libba back, new backline, one more full pre-season into some very talented kids.
Port Adelaide - 2015 was a big disappointment and felt they underacheived. Coach under a fair bit of pressure, will come out firing.

Stallers
North
People have figured out how to cut apart their taller list. Lots of decent players, yet without the blue chip quality you need to go deep into finals, bar Goldstien, Swallow. Shaun Higgins and Harvey have been making them look great. Not sure how long that can go for.

Sliders ( dramatic fall)
Sydney
Aging list. Sensing their descent, may make the best of the situation and get some experience into younger players.

Richmond
Their list seems awkward and lacking in depth. Haven't added huge amounts of talent, and a few younger, hungrier teams will get the jump on them earlier in the season before their members descend on punt road with pitchforks and force them to jag a few wins at junk time at the end of the season.

[boydogs]

Risers
WB - 2nd youngest list in the AFL in 2015 but made finals, will be flag contenders for the next 5 years
Geelong - Massive off-season, will be firmly entrenched in the 8

Stallers
GWS - Turning into Brisbane the way they are leaking talent, they won't ever make finals whilst they have players walking out like this
Richmond - Talented but fold under pressure, 1st round exit again

Sliders
Fremantle - Their lack of talls & youth will hold them back
North - Too reliant on older & injury prone players

[LostDoggy]

RISERS
Port - Too bad to be true last year and Dixon gives them a proper key tall target. Looking potent forward of centre (Dixon, Schulz, Wyngard, Gray, Westhoff), gun midfielders (Boak, Hartlett, Wines), quality tall backs (Trengrove and Carlile) and great tall utility options in Ryder and Westhoff. Top 4 list for mine.

Geelong - Very tough draw last year, easier now. Selwood wasn't right last year and Dangerfield takes a lot of pressure off him. Henderson is a competent tall defender when his head's right - he will be valuable down back. Blicavs still has improvement in him.

Others who should hold their own or improve include Bulldogs, GWS, Gold Coast, St Kilda and (dare I say it) Melbourne.

STALLERS
Collingwood - Enough decent quality to maintain mid-table status, but not enough good quality youngsters in the 50-100 game zone to make major progress. Depth of quality talls looks thin and unreliable in terms of staying fit and healthy.

No points for bravery, but can't see Carlton or Essendon going anywhere.

SLIDERS
Adelaide, the loss of Dangerfield puts enormous pressure on Sloane and Thompson (who isn't getting any younger anyway for a high workrate midfielder). A lot being asked of too few for mine. Also lifted emotionally after the Phil Walsh tragedy, so may find it hard to lift again this year.

Hawthorn, may seem ridiculous but they have been up a long time. Their midfield is built around the aging Hodge, Mitchell, Lewis and Burgoyne. For mine, their only quality genuine talls are Roughead and McEvoy. Gibson, Frawley and Gunston play tall, but will miss Lake and Hale. Obviously still a very, very good team but looks stretched tight to me and not sure the younger crop can match those leaving/declining.

Sydney, also been up a long time. Defence looks proppy and forward line highly reliant on fragile Tippett and Franklin. Need warriors Kennedy, Hanneberry, McVeigh and Jack to back up yet again. For a team that can lack run and pace, Jetta is a loss and Goodes was an invaluable gap filler who still added quality at key times even as a veteran last year.

Others who will struggle to hold ground; North (a lot of old players, lack midfield polish and pace), Freo (big list deficiencies, but super powerful midfield should see them still win more than lose).

[boydogs]

Freo (big list deficiencies)

Time for Ross Lyon to run off somewhere else again

[Twodogs]

Richmond will slide. They have gone with the same plodding one paced midfield heavily reliant for creativity on Deledio who is missing more and more footy with soft tissue injury. I just can't see any improvement in them and think lots of teams will go past them.

[Ghost Dog]

Richmond will slide. They have gone with the same plodding one paced midfield heavily reliant for creativity on Deledio who is missing more and more footy with soft tissue injury. I just can't see any improvement in them and think lots of teams will go past them.

Great summation. Their list is so samey. If you put a blur filter on the TV, it would be hard to tell who was who, besides Dellidio and Martin. Maybe Reiwoldt but he goes missing in big games so it hardly matters. Tyron Vickery has missed a lot of footy in his career.

Great article here (http://www.theroar.com.au/2015/04/28/richmonds-failings-unmasked-depth-essay/)
"Of all the young players taken in the draft since Hardwick was appointed, Champion Data, using their famous ratings system, can’t find one player on the Richmond list taken later than pick 15 to rate even as average heading into 2015, let alone above average or elite."

What excites me about our list is the variety. Fiery mosquito types with 90% accuracy. Rear guard giant-killers with massive guns.
Beanpole midfielders with gadget arms. And Jake stringer who is like the genetic experiment that got all the X-men genes and can do anything.

Melb beat them with a man down, in the second half, by 32 points in 2015. I thought Tigers fancied themselves as a grind it out team.

As this article points out, there is absolutely nobody in that team I would call intimidating. I seem to recall they drafted some older guy from Port I think? He looked pretty tough. Apart from him Ivan is maybe the only tough guy they have if you can stop laughing at his mullet.

[Mantis]

Risers

Port - All things being equal they should finish top 4, still have concerns over their defence & how they handle their ruck situation, but very talented forward of centre.

Gold Coast - Had a horrid run with injuries in losing Ablett, O'Meara, Prestia & Swallow for large parts of the year as well as a raft of off-field issues.. If they get a decent run with injuries they should push for a top 8 spot.

Coll - Pretty talented list and I think they will improve on the past 2 years were they have fallen away in the 2nd half of the year.. They had a handful of ultra competitive losses against the top 6 sides this year and it won't take much to turn at least half of those into wins.

Stellars

Us - I think we will hold ground in 2016, which would be a good result with a developing list.. A win in the first week of finals must be the aim.

Richmond - Will scrounge out enough wins to finish around the bottom part of the 8, but just not enough depth in top end quality to push up into the top 4.

Sliders

Sydney - Team of workhorses, but lack run across the ground... Their defence is a huge concern.

As with others I think Haw & North will drop off a little too.

[Remi Moses]

Risers - Collingwood
Reckon with a very good young list they'll rise into the eight
- Geelong
Not convinced the Danger recruiting will bring them the ultimate goal, but they've recruited for top 4
- Port
Need to develop another game plan, they've been found out. Like the recruitment of Dixon

[Remi Moses]

Stallers - Dogs, just reckon we might hold ground, but love to be proven wrong
Tigers,just don't see the logic of Yarran. They need mid grunt
GWS, keep losing players, but they'll stay near the eight.
Sliders - Norf, I just think they've got to many who may fall of the cliff
- Sydney, ageing side, and the buddy recruitment cost them depth wise

[Remi Moses]

I hope like hell hawthorn slide, as I'm so sick of the hawthorn hubris

[LostDoggy]

Betjam are one of the leading AFL analysts. Last year, pre season, they tipped WCE as a top 4 team and Bulldogs as a top 8 team.

They base their predictions on algorithms which take in the draw, player movements, results over recent years and an historical analysis of list profile and performance.

Their preliminary 2016 ladder is:

Freo 76
Hawth 72
WCE 72
Bulldogs 64
Port 60
Adel 52
Geel 52
Rich 52

Syd 48
GCS 44
North 44
Coll 36
GWS 36
StK 24
Ess 24
Melb 16
Carl 12
Bris 8

[GVGjr]

Betjam are one of the leading AFL analysts. Last year, pre season, they tipped WCE as a top 4 team and Bulldogs as a top 8 team.

They base their predictions on algorithms which take in the draw, player movements, results over recent years and an historical analysis of list profile and performance.



Expensive site to join. I don't bet much at all and I can't justify a $20 per month fee for AFL analysis.

[LostDoggy]

Expensive site to join. I don't bet much at all and I can't justify a $20 per month fee for AFL analysis.

Yeah, I'm not a member. Some of the analysis finds its way into public consumption.

[Twodogs]

Betjam are one of the leading AFL analysts. Last year, pre season, they tipped WCE as a top 4 team and Bulldogs as a top 8 team.

They base their predictions on algorithms which take in the draw, player movements, results over recent years and an historical analysis of list profile and performance.

Their preliminary 2016 ladder is:

Freo 76
Hawth 72
WCE 72
Bulldogs 64
Port 60
Adel 52
Geel 52
Rich 52

Syd 48
GCS 44
North 44
Coll 36
GWS 36
StK 24
Ess 24
Melb 16
Carl 12
Bris 8

16 wins I'd take that.

[Ghost Dog]

Thanks for the data. Collingwood seems a bit out of place there. If they end up there, Buckley is definitely in for the boot.

[LostDoggy]

Betjam are one of the leading AFL analysts. Last year, pre season, they tipped WCE as a top 4 team and Bulldogs as a top 8 team.

They base their predictions on algorithms which take in the draw, player movements, results over recent years and an historical analysis of list profile and performance.

Their preliminary 2016 ladder is:

Freo 76
Hawth 72
WCE 72
Bulldogs 64
Port 60
Adel 52
Geel 52
Rich 52

Syd 48
GCS 44
North 44
Coll 36
GWS 36
StK 24
Ess 24
Melb 16
Carl 12
Bris 8

Freo with 19 wins!!!!????

Surely you Jest ??? :o

Got to be kidding!!!! :mad:

[Dry Rot]

One or both of Cats and Port to make the eight.

And one of the Pies, Giants or Suns to get there too in a big surprise.

That means 2 or 3 of last year's 8 to drop out. Wont be the Eagles or Hawks (assuming all the old Hawks don't fall over at once). And Freo's home ground advantage will probably keep them in the 8, despite having a weakened side.

Which means 2 or 3 of North, Swans, Tigers, Crows or Dogs will miss out. Crows (weakened midfield) and Swans (they'll lose one or both of Grundy and Richards and have to rely on Talia) the most likely.

North are a funny side - looked very average to me last year.

[Remi Moses]

Betjam are one of the leading AFL analysts. Last year, pre season, they tipped WCE as a top 4 team and Bulldogs as a top 8 team.

They base their predictions on algorithms which take in the draw, player movements, results over recent years and an historical analysis of list profile and performance.

Their preliminary 2016 ladder is:

Freo 76
Hawth 72
WCE 72
Bulldogs 64
Port 60
Adel 52
Geel 52
Rich 52

Syd 48
GCS 44
North 44
Coll 36
GWS 36
StK 24
Ess 24
Melb 16
Carl 12
Bris 8

Buckley will be at Centrelink if that ladder pans out .

[lemmon]

Freo with 19 wins!!!!????

Surely you Jest ??? :o

Got to be kidding!!!! :mad:

I can see that Freo midfield putting a heap of sides to the sword during the regular season, especially at home. The real test will be final's time when goals are so much harder to manufacture without big blokes. I could easily see a top four home and away finish but a straight sets finals exit

[Remi Moses]

Freo's list is still very strong, but ageing .
The pointy end is their big concern

[Remi Moses]

The top 4 from last season and Sydney could all easily fall of the cliff .
Bit of age on those lists

[LostDoggy]

Freo's list is still very strong, but ageing .
The pointy end is their big concern

The seriousness of the injury to Fyfe will be a massive factor for them also. Talk is he'll miss a good chunk of the preseason and will be impaired for a while. If he's not 100%, I think they'll struggle to match last year, let alone improve.

[Twodogs]

Freo have been falling away from the middle of last year. They haven't replenished or refreshed or seemingly even planned for the future. They have some kids but no real A-grade talent among them (Bennell?). When the fall comes it will come fast and deep and Lyon will be coaching another team (into oblivion)

[LostDoggy]

Freo have been falling away from the middle of last year. They haven't replenished or refreshed or seemingly even planned for the future. They have some kids but no real A-grade talent among them (Bennell?). When the fall comes it will come fast and deep and Lyon will be coaching another team (into oblivion)

I'm not quite as bleak on Freo. With their big bodied midfield of Fyfe, Mundy, Barlow and Bennell, they'll just outmuscle most teams, especially with Sandilands feeding them. With Neale, Hill, Pearce, Ibbotson, Suban also good runners, their midfield is very strong and that is where most matches are controlled.

Although their attack isn't great, Lyon's strong defensive structures mean they'll still be able to kick enough goals to win most games for mine.

I do agree their thin talls mean real progress is highly unlikely though. My prediction would be; top 4 likely, GF appearance unlikely.

[1eyedog]

SLIDERS
When Levi Casboult comes out and states that he wants to be the main man at Carlton you know you're in trouble. I can't see them climbing out of the bottom 3 for the next 5 years. We need to work on Cripps.

STALLERS
Richmond have a team of B graders with the exception of Lids and Martin; however, neither of these guys have elite consistency so they have a tendency to under perform on a match by match basis. I think Martin will really grab the competition by the throat this year but will that be enough?

Geelong get enough home games and have injected enough mature talent to make top 4, but their bottom six are six of the worse players in the competition, bar Carlton and perhaps Melbourne. You need a solid bottom six if you want to play in a Prelim and I don't think they have it.

RISERS
Gold Coast are a better than 16th position side - I expect them to be pushing for a top 8 finish.

[Remi Moses]

The seriousness of the injury to Fyfe will be a massive factor for them also. Talk is he'll miss a good chunk of the preseason and will be impaired for a while. If he's not 100%, I think they'll struggle to match last year, let alone improve.

It's massive that injury, to put it mildly .
They're such a force at home that they'll win enough games for a bottom 8 finish

[Dry Rot]

Re Fyfe's injury - is it related to some Hawks thug kneeing him in the back last season?

[Twodogs]

Not sure. Sounds familiar though.

[Axe Man]

I think Martin will really grab the competition by the throat this year but will that be enough?

If not the competition he will probably grab a woman by the throat, or a child, or a puppy...

[Axe Man]

Re Fyfe's injury - is it related to some Hawks thug kneeing him in the back last season?

Mitchell's deadly knee made contact with Fyfe's thigh which caused him some ongoing issues, but I wouldn't have thought that would be related to his back.

[LostDoggy]

Mitchell's deadly knee made contact with Fyfe's thigh which caused him some ongoing issues, but I wouldn't have thought that would be related to his back.

This is a little off topic, but heard an amazing stat regarding Fyfe the other day. Only 2 players (100 game minimum) in VFL/AFL history average over 1 Brownlow Vote per game, Fyfe and 1930s champ Haydn Bunton - talk about an exclusive club!

[Twodogs]

This is a little off topic, but heard an amazing stat regarding Fyfe the other day. Only 2 players (100 game minimum) in VFL/AFL history average over 1 Brownlow Vote per game, Fyfe and 1930s champ Haydn Bunton - talk about an exclusive club!

Wow. I think Bunton won 3 of his first 4 seasons.so Fyfe must have been scoring high and not winning.

[Axe Man]

There's a list of all time Brownlow votes that you can re-order by average here if you are interested: http://afltables.com/afl/brownlow/totals0.html

It's no surprise that a high average usually results in 1 or more Brownlow medals. The exceptions to that trend are interesting - Harold Bray (whoever he was) has the 4th highest average of all time (0.88 - 106 votes from 121 games) but didn't win a Brownlow. Of the current players Joel Selwood and Sam Mitchell both have exceptional averages but have not quite managed to win a Charlie.

[bornadog]

Of the current players Joel Selwood and Sam Mitchell both have exceptional averages but have not quite managed to win a Charlie.

That's because they are pricks. :D

[Greystache]

Of the current players Joel Selwood and Sam Mitchell both have exceptional averages but have not quite managed to win a Charlie.

If Jobe Watson is found guilty by CAS Mitchell might still win one (along with Cotchin)

[LostDoggy]

If Jobe Watson is found guilty by CAS Mitchell might still win one (along with Cotchin)

Boy is that a can of worms. If Watson is ultimately found to have taken illegal enhancing substances (he has virtually admitted as much) systematically throughout his Brownlow year, how can he possibly be allowed to retain it?

The Bummer fans will be apoplectic :) :) :)

[LostDoggy]

If not the competition he will probably grab a woman by the throat, or a child, or a puppy...

Mate, you stole my thunder.

[1eyedog]

If not the competition he will probably grab a woman by the throat, or a child, or a puppy...

Was thinking the same thing as I was writing it.

[Twodogs]

Mitchell's deadly knee made contact with Fyfe's thigh which caused him some ongoing issues, but I wouldn't have thought that would be related to his back.


I didn't know to take it literally when they said he had a deadly left leg

[LostDoggy]

http://www.theroar.com.au/2016/01/20/numbers-game-afl-teams-rise-fall-2016/

(http://www.theroar.com.au/2016/01/20/numbers-game-afl-teams-rise-fall-2016/)
Betjam are one of the leading AFL analysts. Last year, pre season, they tipped WCE as a top 4 team and Bulldogs as a top 8 team.

They base their predictions on algorithms which take in the draw, player movements, results over recent years and an historical analysis of list profile and performance.

Their preliminary 2016 ladder is:

Freo 76
Hawth 72
WCE 72
Bulldogs 64
Port 60
Adel 52
Geel 52
Rich 52

Syd 48
GCS 44
North 44
Coll 36
GWS 36
StK 24
Ess 24
Melb 16
Carl 12
Bris 8

Just came across another prediction for the year ahead by an economist applying mathematical principles. He comes up with not-dissimilar results to TipBetPro, with Freo on top with 17 wins and Dogs 6th with 14.

Like any analysis, it has it's limitations, but an interesting take on the year ahead.

[Twodogs]

Bookies tend to get it right.

[Bulldog Joe]

With the opening rounds of the NAB challenge, the thing that seems apparent to me, is that the interchange cap is going to have an impact on how teams play out games.

So far we have seen some teams really trying to meet the new limits while others have ignored them.

What I see happening is that those sides with limited depth are really going to struggle late in games.

This might be a detriment to us as a young side,but our ability to refresh players by using the entire list as we did in 2015, should compensate for that.

When we look at teams such as Hawthorn, Freo and Sydney with an elite midfield group, we also see larger numbers of unproven/untried talent.

This is particularly true at Sydney and I believe they will be the big sliders.

[Ghost Dog]

Good observation Bulldog Joe. I'm hoping we can learn to control the pace of the game this season a bit more. Our frenetic mayhem style may have to be tweaked.

[Greystache]

Sliders

Sydney- Looked to be out of legs by the end of last season and have done little to improve their stocks other than bringing in draftees who are unlikely to improve them this season. Key defenders are a big concern, the fact they picked up Talia speaks volumes.

Norf- Have been an average home and away team whose final ladder position has flattered them after some good finals wins. Still rely heavily on aging veterans and their midfield is very one paced. Think they'll just miss the 8 which will mean no easy finals kill against a Richmond type to improve their final position.

Fremantle- Midfield still looks powerful but their defence will be tested further without McPharlin, and their ability to kick goals looks likely to be their Achilles heal again. Might still make the top 4 but the creaks are getting louder.

Stallers

Collingwood- Every year they're Feb champions who fail to deliver and this year is no exception. They have some young talent but it's mostly unproven and the sprint to the finishing line will be a crawl yet again. Expect them to finish about 12th but Buckley to survive based on some unseen improvement he's supposedly produced, and the media will have them penciled in for the top four again in 2017

Richmond- Mentally weak team who will ride a few waves of momentum during the season and crash on the sand again week one of the finals. Don't have players with the character to lift for the big occasion. 5-8th again

Bulldogs- Will improve in some areas but probably will win a game or two less in absolute terms. A year of consolidation and development with a very young team. A finals win would be a big tick.

Hawthorn- They're old and they're losing players to retirement but they know how to win when it matters. Will be top 4 again and the team to beat sadly.

West Coast- Won't do it as easy as last season but will win enough games to make top 4. Hard to beat at home and will have the umpires on site to get them over the line if the game should get tight. Just need to sneak enough wins on the road.

Port- Expected to make the climb back up this year but I suspect it will only be an extra position or two. Will probably finish 7-10 but won't be the challenger many think.

Melbourne- Are shit, have been shit, and look to still be shit in the future. Roos is just trying to minimise the hurt while protecting his legacy and cashing his cheques.

Carlton- If it was possible to fall lower they would. Would struggle to beat Box Hill or Williamstown

Gold Coast- A rabble on the field and off. Have some talent but don't work as a team consistently and need a total clean out of coaches and support staff and start again. Lost some quality player and replaced them with mature duds. Lots of pain ahead.

Essendon- Finished the season rock bottom and and that's where they'll stay. It will take years to un-Hird them, even longer with Worsfold coaching. Grab some popcorn and enjoy the ride, especially if they can snatch another preseason win.

GWS- Expected to climb but I don't see happening. Have lots of potential but don't deliver on it often enough. Lots of strut without much substance. Another year of suposedly being a young team about to explode. Spot light will start to shine on Leon Cameron.

Brisbane- If there wasn't Carlton, Gold Coast, and Essendon kicking around you'd suggest the humane thing to do would be to put them down. They'll actually fly under the radar finishing bottom 4.

Climbers-

Geelong- Being tipped as a premiership threat after selling the farm for immediate success. I don't see it happening and suggest a good run will see them in the bottom of the 8 and making up the numbers.

St Kilda- They'll leap frog a couple of bad teams but it's a dead cat bounce. They'll bottom out in the next year or two as the senior players currently carrying them drop off and can't be replaced.

Adelaide- Have lost Dangerfield but I don't think it will affect them as much as many think. Expect them to take a step forward and finish top 4.

[GVGjr]

I agree with Grey's comments on Adelaide. I think they will have a very good season

[LostDoggy]

The key to Adelaide will be the ideas of the new coach. Having 1 player already retire at 26 citing a lack of passion is cause for concern.

[Ghost Dog]

That was a good read, thanks Grey.

[Bulldog Joe]

I agree with Grey's comments on Adelaide. I think they will have a very good season

We will know a fair bit about Adelaide early on.

If they get through the first 8 rounds in good shape they should definitely make finals.

They start with
North (Etihad)
Port
Richmond (Etihad)
Sydney (Adelaide)
Hawthorn (MCG)
Fremantle (Adelaide)
Bulldogs (Etihad)
Geelong (Adelaide)

So effectively they play 8 of last years top 9 (excluding themsselves) to start their season.

That is a brutal fixture, which does not really give much option to blood new players or rest others.

If they get through that better than 4-4 they will be extremely well placed, however if it goes wrong early for any reason it will be effectively over as far as finals.