2016 Preseason valuations of Bulldogs

[LostDoggy]

I recently read that Toby Maclean has been backed heavily to win the Rising Star this year. He was originally offered as a $41 chance, but is now a $14 third favourite.

I'm not really a punter, but betting markets are often an interesting insight into how the broader football community rate us and our players. Which means not much I suppose, but does offer a bit of a starting point for a discussion.

With this in mind, I thought I'd look up a few prices for Bulldogs in various preseason markets and see what we all thought about the various valuations (in gambling terms, where do woofers see the value):

RISING STAR:
Maclean $14, Daniel $26, Webb $41, Collins $51, Dale $51, Dunkley $61, Hamilton $101, R.Smith $101, Cordy $151, Lynch $251, Goetz $251.

TO MAKE ALL-AUSTRALIAN TEAM:
Stringer $3, Bont $4.50, Wood $5.50, Dahlhaus $7, Libba $7, Murphy $8, Macrae $8, Boyd $9, Wallis $14.

COLEMAN MEDAL:
Stringer $13, Dickson $81, Boyd $101, Redpath $101.

BROWNLOW:
Bont $34, Libba $41, Stringer $81, Wallis $101, Macrae $101, Dahlhaus $151, all others $251+.

[Twodogs]

I like Dickson's Coleman medal odds and the Bont's Brownlow odds. I think that I get onto both. I like Bonti's chances the best.

[Twodogs]

Is there a market for players to play a certain amount of games. Say I reckon that Marcus Adams will play more than 15 games, can
I find a market to take that bet?

[bulldogtragic]

Roarke Smith out for the whole year and a rookie: $101
Zaine Cordy, a very good young player with a heap of upside: $151

I know I'm completely biased, but Zaine is a better option... And although, not being a gambler, $10 on Zaine at $151 might just tempt me to think about such things.

[Twodogs]

Putting a zero after that 151 is awfully tempting isn't it? Daniels is a nice price too. He's a good chance.

[F'scary]

Regarding McLean and the Rising Star.

I think that once McLean is in the side, he won't be out of it barring injury. The issue is, with the competition for the roles he commands, will he get a look in early enough to sew up that award?

[GVGjr]

Is there a market for players to play a certain amount of games. Say I reckon that Marcus Adams will play more than 15 games, can I find a market to take that bet?

I think there might be some unrealistic expectations on Adams. We would need to go back to the likes of Quill, Montgomery, Powell, Curley and Picken (I'm sure there is a few others) to find mature aged players that really make an impression early on.


15 games would be at the top of my guess at how many games he might play.

[Twodogs]

I think there might be some unrealistic expectations on Adams. We would need to go back to the likes of Quill, Montgomery, Powell, Curley and Picken (I'm sure there is a few others) to find mature aged players that really make an impression early on.


15 games would be at the top of my guess at how many games he might play.

I don't expect to win. That's why I'd expect a decent price.

[GVGjr]

I don't expect to win. That's why I'd expect a decent price.

I get that but 15 games from a state league player would be a top end result and I'd think you would get very good odds.

[LostDoggy]

To my knowledge, such a market doesn't exist anyway. Didn't with the bookie I looked at.

[BornInDroopSt'54]

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/western-bulldogs-best-22-2016-can-tom-boyd-have-his-breakout-year/news-story/da3a2431723241fd3e0d23d4c87226f7

Western Bulldogs best 22 2016: Can Tom Boyd have his breakout year?
December 30, 2015 3:49pm
Sarah OlleFOX SPORTS

Tom Boyd was exiled to the VFL after Round 16 this season. Picture: Josie Hayden
WITH big money comes big expectations.

And for Tom Boyd, there’s the added pressure of being a former No. 1 draft pick.

But at only 20 years old, the ex-Giant has time on his side to mature into the player the Dogs are hoping he’ll be.

Too regularly, Boyd’s game looked one-dimensional this season and Luke Beveridge ultimately lost patience with the 200cm forward, when he was sent back to the reserves indefinitely after Round 16.

And while it’s unlikely Boyd will have the kind of season that would win him the Coleman Medal next year, another preseason will certainly help his development as he seeks to become one of the game’s premier forwards.

But whether he will be a permanent fixture in the Dogs’ starting 22 is less of a certainty.


For someone of his size and age, Boyd has been unfairly maligned — much the way Tom Hawkins was in the infancy of his career.

Now a star of the competition, it’s easy to forget that Hawkins took five to six seasons to develop into the damaging forward he is today.

And like Boyd, Hawkins had stints in the VFL to learn, develop and perfect his craft.

But when other young forwards, such as Melbourne’s Jesse Hogan, dominate opponents, the Bulldogs’ frustrations with Boyd are understandable.

Will he have the breakout season they so desperately crave?

Complicating Boyd’s bid to cement his spot in the Dogs’ forward line are Jed Adcock and Matt Suckling — two senior recruits who have the ability to play in defence and attack.

And Jake Stringer - one of the most exciting players in the competition - has already begun to make the half-forward flank a position of his own.

It’s a good problem for the Dogs, who struggled to find a suitable replacement for Barry Hall when he retired.

But it also makes Boyd’s bid for a permanent spot in the Dogs’ starting 22 all the more difficult.

This is the final instalment of Fox Footy’s series on your team’s best 22 players.

As always, there will be some contentious decisions — and some unlucky omissions.

Scroll down and leave a comment to have your say.

Note: These line ups don’t take into account current injuries or suspensions.

LOCKS

Marcus Bontempelli, Tom Liberatore, Robert Murphy, Jordan Roughead, Jake Stringer, Matt Suckling, Easton Wood, Mitch Wallis

RISING STAR

Kieran Collins

In the end, Collins was a steal for the Bulldogs, who took him at pick 26 in this year’s national draft. Collins — already AFL ready at 194cm and 100kg — is an exciting prospect for the Dogs. A key defender, Collins was considered by many draft experts as one of the best defenders in this year’s pool, behind the No. 1 draft pick Jacob Weitering. Collins’ ability to make the right decisions under pressure is particularly impressive, and was manifested at the draft combine where he was the highest ranked player in the clean hands test.


Kieran Collins was taken with pick No. 26 in this year’s national draft.

Will Minson

Minson’s was one of the most intriguing stories of 2015. For the majority of the season, the Dogs played without a recognised ruckman, with Minson overlooked for his lack of defensive pressure. But the 189-game veteran was one of the Bulldogs’ standout players in their seven point elimination final loss to the Crows. Despite this, question marks still remain over Minson, who only played 10 games this year, and whether he can consistently play at the level required by coach Luke Beveridge.

IT’S A BIG YEAR FOR ...

Jed Adcock

The former Lions skipper found himself in exile at the end of this season and was given a life-life by the Dogs in the rookie draft. While it’s expected that Adcock will be upgraded to the senior playing list, he will be under pressure to find his way into the Dogs’s starting 22. The 206-game veteran has truckloads of experience, but who would he edge out in the Dogs’ backline? Or will he be used forward? 2016 will be a year of second — and perhaps last — chances for Adcock.


Jed Adcock has been given a second chance at the Bulldogs. Picture: Mark Calleja
WESTERN BULLDOG’S BEST 22

B: Matt Suckling, Jordan Roughead, Dale Morris

HB: Robert Murphy, Easton Wood, Matthew Boyd

C: Jason Johannisen, Tom Liberatore, Jack Macrae

HF: Luke Dalhaus, Jake Stringer, Liam Picken

F: Tory Dickson, Stewart Crameri, Tom Boyd

FOLL: Will Minson, Marcus Bontempelli, Mitch Wallis

I/C: Mitch Honeychurch, Caleb Daniel, Lachie Hunter, Joel Hamling

EMERGENCY: Fletcher Roberts, Koby Stevens, Nathan Hrovat

OTHERS: Marcus Adams, Shane Biggs, Tom Campbell, Kieran Collins, Zaine Cordy, Bailey Dale, Josh Dunkley, Declan Hamilton, Toby McLean, Josh Prudden, Clay Smith, Lukas Webb, Bailey Williams, Lin Jong, Jack Redpath

ROOKIES: Jed Adcock, Luke Goetz, Bradley Lynch, Roarke Smith