2016 Predictions

[Bulldog Joe]

I have been looking through and trying to find a way to rank the teams without allowing my individual bias.

While I do not believe the Champion Data ranking is infallible, it is the only tool that is purely statistical and therefore free from bias.

I have looked at the ranking of every player at the end of 2015 and looked at the ranking of teams at that point as a starting position.

That gave me
Hawthorn 9863
West Coast 9053
North Melbourne 9013
Adelaide 9005
as the top 4

The Bulldogs actually ranked 14th at 8246

For 2016 I have removed the players off lists and replaced those in teams they have moved to.

I have made no allowance for the impact of draftees or improvement or decline in individual players but have come up with the following list


1. West Coast 9202.7
2. Hawthorn 9021.8
3. Port Adelaide 8979.9
4. Collingwood 8729.7
5. Nth Melbourne 8547.5
6. Bulldogs 8411.9
7. Fremantle 8297.6
8. Gold Coast 8131.5
9. Geelong 8059.2
10. Adelaide 8017.1
11. GWS 7950.5
12 Richmond 7857.1
13. Essendon 7560.4
14. Sydney 7387.5
15. Brisbane 7385.2
16. St Kilda 7082.1
17. Melbourne 6973
18. Carlton 6174.2

Sydney are the team that really drop off with several retirements. Carlton, despite being horrid last year are statistically significantly worse.

I am looking at some ways to quantify what could be predicted in terms of improvement and decline in players outputs.

[Twodogs]

Very thorough Easry. I don't pay enough attention to other teams to offer much of an opinion but I think that the swans might fall away and North too.

[Bulldog Joe]

Very thorough Easry. I don't pay enough attention to other teams to offer much of an opinion but I think that the swans might fall away and North too.

North really depend on some old experienced heads. With Brent Harvey still ranked as their 2nd best player, they really need some younger guys to come through.

[bornadog]

I am looking at some ways to quantify what could be predicted in terms of improvement and decline in players outputs.

That is exactly the dilemma and I think impossible to quantify.

A good example is Tory Dickson who showed some ability early on in his career, but made significant improvement in 2015 by having an injury free preseason as well as working very hard on his fitness.

[Bulldog Joe]

That is exactly the dilemma and I think impossible to quantify.

A good example is Tory Dickson who showed some ability early on in his career, but made significant improvement in 2015 by having an injury free preseason as well as working very hard on his fitness.

It is impossible to predict individual players, but I think there may be a way to assess an average of improvement against games played etc.

That is what I will try and work on.

Brent Harvey would be the best example of being unable to quantify. Clearly he has held onto his form in a way never previously seen.

[Twodogs]

North really depend on some old experienced heads. With Brent Harvey still ranked as their 2nd best player, they really need some younger guys to come through.

A bit like a few years ago when Scott West won his umpteenth B&F and said "if I'm up here again doing this next year then we are in trouble as a team"

[LostDoggy]

Really like what you are doing BJ. Very interesting reading. Whilst any purely statistical analysis will never give the whole picture, maybe another of using your model to predict this year's performance would be to slightly weight the players based on potential improvement or decline.

So players under 100 games could be given an extra 5% or 10% or something on their ratings, whereas those over 30 years old could be given a 5% or 10% reduction. Of course, individuals will not improve or decline in a linear fashion, but it could tell a bit of a tale about a collective group.

[Bulldog Joe]

Really like what you are doing BJ. Very interesting reading. Whilst any purely statistical analysis will never give the whole picture, maybe another of using your model to predict this year's performance would be to slightly weight the players based on potential improvement or decline.

So players under 100 games could be given an extra 5% or 10% or something on their ratings, whereas those over 30 years old could be given a 5% or 10% reduction. Of course, individuals will not improve or decline in a linear fashion, but it could tell a bit of a tale about a collective group.

While I am trying to work out how all that could be done I have come across someone already doing it. http://www.tipbetpro.com/#!AFL-2016-TipBetPro-Projections/xtmz9/568250b90cf236d403916078

[F'scary]

Sliders - the Bombers.

[BornInDroopSt'54]

Sliders - the Bombers.

Dropped to the bottom like a bomb.

[Twodogs]

With a resounding and very satisfying thud,

[Ghost Dog]

Western Bulldogs to record some record breaking margins over Essendon aka 'The ring-ins'.

[Bulldog Joe]

While the projecting of player development in a statitical sense eludes me for now, i have updated the overall list based on the CAS suspensions

This now gives a ranking as follows (again based on Champion Data Player Rankings at end of 2015 season)
West Coast 9202.7
Hawthorn 9021.8
Collingwood 8729.7
North Melbourne 8547.5
Port Adelaide 8309.4
Fremantle 8297.6
Gold Coast 8131.5
Geelong 8059.2
WBulldogs 8057.8
Adelaide 8017.1
GWS 7950.5
Richmond 7857.1
Sydney 7387.5
Brisbane 7385.2
St Kilda 6796.3
Melbourne 6684.5
Carlton 6174.2
Essendon 3953.7

[Bulldog Joe]

With that information I have then worked through the fixture and using the rankings above plus a little gut feel, I come up with the following prediction for 2016


1.West Coast 17 5
2 Collingwood 16 6
3 North Melbourne 16 6
4 Western Bulldogs 16 6
5 Hawthorn 15 7
6 GWS 15 7
7 Port Adelaide 14 8
8 Geelong 14 8
9 Gold Coast 12 10
10 Richmond 12 10
11 Fremantle 11 11
12 Adelaide 10 12
13 Brisbane 9 13
14 St Kilda 8 14
15 Sydney 6 16
16 Melbourne 5 17
17 Carlton 2 20
18 Essendon 0 22

Now when I have done that, I seem to have Sydney very low
They are clearly the team that should (statistically) slide.

Anyway it is just a prediction and therefore must be inaccurate.

[ledge]

Could be a very good way of betting, would you be tempted to put money on any of this happening?

[Bulldog Joe]

I could certainly be tempted to back Sydney to miss finals and possibly GWS to make finals.

Our odds are a bit skinny

[Bulldog Joe]

I have been through the fixture and allotted my expected wins/losses based on my perception of the relative strength of each side and considered venues and prior opponents.

This is my version.

West Coast 17 5 - Losses to hawthorn (MCG) Geelong (Geelong) Bulldogs (Etihad) GWS (Spotless) and coming of Derby with 6 day break plus Adelaide (AO) round 23

Collingwood 16 6 Losses to West Coast (Subi) GWS (Spotless) North Melbourne (Etihad) West Coast (MCG) Bulldogs (Etihad) Hawthorn (MCG)

North Melbourne 16 6 Losses to Gold Coast (Metricon), Sydney (SCG) Adelaide (AO) West Coast (Subi) Bulldogs (Etihad) Hawthorn (MCG)

Western Bulldogs 16 6 Losses to North Melbourne (Etihad)Collingwood (MCG) GWS (Spotless) Port Adelaide (AO) Geelong (Simonds) Fremantle (Subi) Note Dogs have been very good at Etihad and I am given them plenty of wins there. Including Hawthorn (who are coming 2 tough games in Geelong and West Coast for the round 3 clash.)

Hawthorn 15 7 Losses to Geelong (Rd 1 - Dangerfield impact) Bulldogs (Etihad) GWS (Spotless) North Melbourne (Etihad) Port Adelaide (AO) Richmond (MCG - this result just seems to happen) West Coast (Subi)

GWS 15 7 Losses to Fremantle (Subi) Adelaide (AO) Geelong (Simonds) Brisbane (Gabba - There just will be an upset somewhere) Port Adelaide (AO) Gold Coast (Metricon) North Melbourne (Etihad)

Port Adelaide 14 8 Losses to GWS (Star Track) West Coast (AO) Melbourne (Alice Springs – think this is just a game for Melbourne) Collingwood (MCG) Fremantle (AO) North Melbourne (Etihad) Brisbane (Gabba – Brisbane are better than many predict and have a good record against Power) Gold Coast (Metricon)

Geelong 14 8 Losses to GWS (Star Track letdown after Rd 1 v Hawthorn) Port Adelaide (AO) Adelaide (AO – that will be a packed house) Collingwood (MCG) North Melbourne (Etihad) Bulldogs (Etihad) Fremantle (Subi) Brisbane (Gabba)

Gold Coast 12 10 List has some quality

Richmond 12 10 Maybe it is because they keep losing to the Dogs but feel they lack quality outside their top 5 and contain too many recycled players.

Fremantle 11 11 Not convinced that Bennell is the saviour and the loss of McPharlin plus question marks around the durability of aging stars in Pavlich and Sandilands. Lyon needs to give more opportunity to his younger brigade.

Adelaide 10 12 Certainly see them as competitive, but anyone who really believes that Brad Crouch is an adequate replacement for Dangerfield are using very rosy glasses. Crouch needs to prove his body is durable enough.

Brisbane 9 13 have improved their list and have very good midfield options. If their young talls stand up they will be a tough side to beat.

St Kilda 8 14 The loss of Carlisle hurts but they are showing improvement.

Sydney 6 16 Obviously I am out on a limb with Sydney, but they have a very long tail of unproven players. They need their best 10 players on the park and playing well every week to win games.

Melbourne 5 17 I see more pain for Melbourne as they rely on a young midfield and Jesse Hogan

Carlton 2 20 Just a poor list and much weaker than last years wooden spoon side. They have replaced experience with GWS rejects. Just does not look viable

Essendon 0 22 There season is actually dependent on the quality of their top ups and adding recently retired/delisted players is not a recipe to win games.