Our greatest Moneyball selections

[Ghost Dog]

Watched that movie again recently and loved it.
Did some reading and it seems were are one of three or four teams being touted as the Moneyball masters of the AFL.
Having a spend well below other power clubs, these moneyball players are destined to become cult heroes.

Who have been our top three moneyball selections at the WB under Simon D's tenure?
Eg: Players that came at a bargain, overlooked because of cosmetic, age, external reasons.

1.Caleb Daniel - looks like a steal. I guess the jury is out, but looks very promising.
2. Shane Biggs- really like the way he moves and runs. Very competitive, and flies under the radar, no idea why. Why did Sydney let him go? To me he looks as valuable as JJ.
3. Lin Jong - an odd player at times, not a natural . Finds the footy and tackles hard. Was injured for a while but didn't disappoint late in the season. Really composed player and honest in his efforts.

Yours?

[GVGjr]

I listened to Simon at a function one night a couple of years back and while it's a hard question for him to answer because he gets asked it so many times he did let it slip that the Johannisen was the one selection he was quite chuffed with. I'll go with JJ.

I get the feeling that Lynch might be a player he talks about in a couple of years time

[Mofra]

Luke Dahlhaus for me.
Rookie pick who was overlooked because of his kicking % at TAC level, as a numbers man Dalrymple realized that a higher % of his kicks were under pressure than most players which pushed his figures down.

The fact it he as taken after the largely shitful 2010 draft adds to the difficulty. Most clubs burned quite a few main draft and then rookie picks that year, and we end up with Wallis, Libba, Dahl & JJ. Brilliant work.

[bulldogtragic]

Tory Dickson. Coming off playing local suburban footy before minimal VFL. Not that big, not that tall, not that fit when selected. As PP showed us in another thread, he joined the elite 50 goals in a season club last year. All for the princely sum of pick 57.

[bornadog]

All time pickup is Chris Grant, pick 105

[GVGjr]

All time pickup is Chris Grant, pick 105

True enough but the opening post is about SD's selections.

I tend to think it's hard to go past Dahlhaus.

[LostDoggy]

To me a true Moneyball (in the sense of the book/movie) selection is identifying undervalued/underrecognised talent from other teams, as opposed to drafting kids. In recent years, Joel Hamling fits the bill pretty well. Looking back a bit, Peter Foster was a great trade, as was Tony Liberatore.

[Mofra]

Looking back a bit, Peter Foster was a great trade, as was Tony Liberatore.
We'd have to add whichever document clerk at Whitten Oval that discovered North Melbourne's oversight that allowed us to sign Scott Wynd. Brilliant signing.

[Twodogs]

To me a true Moneyball (in the sense of the book/movie) selection is identifying undervalued/underrecognised talent from other teams, as opposed to drafting kids. In recent years, Joel Hamling fits the bill pretty well. Looking back a bit, Peter Foster was a great trade, as was Tony Liberatore.

That's exactly what i understand moneyball to mean. it's not just cheap or good value trading/drafting. Its looking at your stocks, identifying your problems and then identifying talent languishing at other clubs who can perform that particular task or help with a particular role.


We'd have to add whichever document clerk at Whitten Oval that discovered North Melbourne's oversight that allowed us to sign Scott Wynd. Brilliant signing.

I have been told the story of our recruiters sitting at the Wynd household in Jacana waiting for the clock to tick over midnight and North's hold on Scotty to expire. I don't know how true the story is but I really want it to be.

[Bulldog Joe]

To me a true Moneyball (in the sense of the book/movie) selection is identifying undervalued/underrecognised talent from other teams, as opposed to drafting kids. In recent years, Joel Hamling fits the bill pretty well. Looking back a bit, Peter Foster was a great trade, as was Tony Liberatore.

I agree that it is about identifying value already in the system.

For me players like Hamling and Biggs are the type we could see as MoneyBall selections, currently on the list.

[Ghost Dog]

Right GVG, I wasn't sure Dahlhaus was a SD pick. But if so I would have to go with him. Betray my lack of Bulldogs lore knowledge there.

True moneyball is identifying one statistic ( or two ) that puts players ahead and building a team around that statistic. In the Oakland A's case it was guys that can get on base. That was their key stat. In ours it seems to be tackling and finding the ball.

From what I read, identifying guys who are not getting a turn (Hamling, Dickson) is just normal recruiting.
But we have drafted a rack of smaller guys ( MHchurch, LD, CD ), ball magnets who tackle hard.
The lack of height being their 'No' factor for most recruiters. You can add Nathan Hrovat as well.
You can see a bit of a pattern with the smaller brigade.

JJ is a bit different. Recruited on pure potential.
SD identified pace as being JJ's selling point. Recruiters had their eyes on Brad Hill, Jager O'Meara and a few other WA stars at the time so maybe this caused JJ to be overlooked. JJ was only in his 5th year of footy and not tearing it up exactly. ( Average 10 touches a game ). For JJ, you could almost chalk it up as one of those overseas recruiting wildcard stories. Amazing athlete, 5th year of footy and getting drafted as an AFL player. McCartney said of JJ, " I didn't know who he was at first, I thought he was the work experience kid." It was a big risk, and we've drafted a lot of players with pace who didn't work out.


We throw our arms open to short players who can play. Maybe Simon realised he had to do something radically differently after 2009, which was an absolute disaster for us. Howard, Tutt, Markovic, Thorne.

Beyond SD's tenure, Libba is the best, perhaps best in the comp, Moneyball selection. Who picked him?
But Luke Dahlhaus for SD's tenure for sure.

[hujsh]

I'd say Dickson and maybe Kobe Stevens?

[bornadog]

True enough but the opening post is about SD's selections.

I tend to think it's hard to go past Dahlhaus.

On SD's selections, I would like to discount Rookies as they are a two way bet. Using draft picks to get a bargain is really testing the recruiters talent.

SD has taken a punt on Honeychurch, (Pick 60) and if he goes on to be a top player, then he is the man. Agree from Rookie list Dahl has been an incredible pickup.

[Ghost Dog]

On SD's selections, I would like to discount Rookies as they are a two way bet. Using draft picks to get a bargain is really testing the recruiters talent.

SD has taken a punt on Honeychurch, (Pick 60) and if he goes on to be a top player, then he is the man. Agree from Rookie list Dahl has been an incredible pickup.

Would that just cancel out Howard? :) Still hurts to see who else was taken with that pick.

[LostDoggy]

Liam Picken.
2009 Dal's first draft.
6th round selection.
Pick-86.
Off the rookie list.
127 games.
Outstanding.

[GVGjr]

Liam Picken.
2009 Dal's first draft.
6th round selection.
Pick-86.
Off the rookie list.
127 games.
Outstanding.

And as I understand it we got him primarily because Williamstown paid his rookie salary.

[Webby]

In the pure ungainly, under appreciated, minor-leaguer who "gets on base" premise of Moneyball, it simply has to be Tony Liberatore.

Morrish Medal, 2 x Gardiner Medal winner who didn't look the part, but "gets the footy."

250+ games, b&f's, Brownlow Medal and Team of the Century later. The textbook Moneyball footballer.

[w3design]

In my understanding of a moneyball selection Hamling stands out as the almost perfect candidate.

One could almost view 2014s entire draft crop as excellent moneyball selections but on output Dickson and Dahlhaus are our greatest.

[Ghost Dog]

In the pure ungainly, under appreciated, minor-leaguer who "gets on base" premise of Moneyball, it simply has to be Tony Liberatore.

Morrish Medal, 2 x Gardiner Medal winner who didn't look the part, but "gets the footy."

250+ games, b&f's, Brownlow Medal and Team of the Century later. The textbook Moneyball footballer.

How about your best SD selection?

[bornadog]

How about your best SD selection?

The Bont and Stringer

[F'scary]

The moneyball concept revolves around the notion that by using cold, hard logic ("analytics") and clear thinking you can select better than the competition who, with little self-insight, rely on conventional wisdom and consensus opinion. A key element of the moneyball concept, as implied by the name, is that by employing sound methods, you can get the same or better value on the park for less money.

Dahlhaus fits the bill because we were persuaded to take him on (albeit as a low risk rookie pick) on the strength of what many regard as secondary indicators: tackling and chasing. On primary indicators such as disposal skills and accumulation of possessions, no-one saw enough in him to beat us to the punch.

Tory Dickson fits the bill. On primary indicators, including age, no-one would have recruited him. McCartney and Dalrymple placed a higher value on his sustained goal kicking returns in the lower leagues.

Geelong's JPod is likewise a classic moneyball case.

The Dicko/JPod examples indicate there is probably a whole raft of AFL standard players out there playing in the lower comps. You just have to work out a way of identifying their likely chance of success.

Essendon have a unique opportunity to play moneyball this year. But my observation is that they are just picking whoever the last person they spoke to tells them to pick.

[GVGjr]

We are spending a lot of time defining Moneyball principles and I think most of them are based on the movie which was very different to the book. I don't believe that is the intention of the opening post so lets try and focus on the value selections SD has made.

[GVGjr]

The moneyball concept revolves around the notion that by using cold, hard logic ("analytics") and clear thinking you can select better than the competition who, with little self-insight, rely on conventional wisdom and consensus opinion. A key element of the moneyball concept, as implied by the name, is that by employing sound methods, you can get the same or better value on the park for less money.


I think that is a very fair assessment of the Moneyball concept.

[Mofra]

Essendon have a unique opportunity to play moneyball this year. But my observation is that they are just picking whoever the last person they spoke to tells them to pick.
They were actually poised to pick both Dickson and Tom Campbell in the ND but we got in first.

[F'scary]

They were actually poised to pick both Dickson and Tom Campbell in the ND but we got in first.

Exactly! We were prepared to rate them higher.

[Twodogs]

Exactly! We were prepared to rate them higher.

And we had the right picks.

[Ghost Dog]

They were actually poised to pick both Dickson and Tom Campbell in the ND but we got in first.

I knew about Tory, but didn't know about Tommy. They also made a huge play ( reported ) for JJ before he signed for us for another 3 years.

[Scraggers]

Koby Stevens for mine ... Wasn't a 'required' player at WCE, but what he does for us in incredible. Tough as guts and straightens our spine. He will be a big inclusion this year.

[LostDoggy]

They were actually poised to pick both Dickson and Tom Campbell in the ND but we got in first.

From memory I think they had their evil eyes on The Bont as well until their draft picks were taken away?!?!

HEH HEH ;)

[Greystache]

And we had the right picks.


They did have the right picks, they just didn't rate him highly enough to choose him. They used pick 19 on Elliott Kavanagh and 31 on Jackson Merrett. We read the play correctly and they're Essendon. It's one of the reasons they haven't finished above 7th in 15 years :D

[bulldogtragic]

They did have the right picks, they just didn't rate him highly enough to choose him. They used pick 19 on Elliott Kavanagh and 31 on Jackson Merrett. We read the play correctly and they're Essendon. It's one of the reasons they haven't finished above 7th in 15 years :D

And another reason why they won't get above 15th for 7 years.

It never tires me knowing they're certified drug cheats and their WorkSafe fine in some way makes it to our WorkSafe sponsorship.

[Sedat]

They did have the right picks, they just didn't rate him highly enough to choose him. They used pick 19 on Elliott Kavanagh and 31 on Jackson Merrett. We read the play correctly and they're Essendon. It's one of the reasons they haven't finished above 7th in 15 years :D
And the bolded bit is why they got desperate and sacked Knights with 2 years to run, brought in Golden Boy and cheated their arses off to try and get back to their 'rightful' place at the top of the ladder. I think they are at their rightful place now and will be for a long time, cheating scum.

[Bulldog4life]

From memory I think they had their evil eyes on The Bont as well until their draft picks were taken away?!?!

HEH HEH ;)

I know Collingwood were trying to get an earlier pick to get The Bont.

[Twodogs]

They did have the right picks, they just didn't rate him highly enough to choose him. They used pick 19 on Elliott Kavanagh and 31 on Jackson Merrett. We read the play correctly and they're Essendon. It's one of the reasons they haven't finished above 7th in 15 years :D


And another reason why they won't get above 15th for 7 years.

It never tires me knowing they're certified drug cheats and their WorkSafe fine in some way makes it to our WorkSafe sponsorship.


And the bolded bit is why they got desperate and sacked Knights with 2 years to run, brought in Golden Boy and cheated their arses off to try and get back to their 'rightful' place at the top of the ladder. I think they are at their rightful place now and will be for a long time, cheating scum.

God I love it when you guys talk like that!

[Twodogs]

One player who just seemed to descend from the blue and kind of walk into the seniors and has been there since is Dale Morris. His recruitment must come down to good talent ID. A guy from the next level down with good tackling and spoiling skills which was a skillsset we needed at tge time.

[boydogs]

We are spending a lot of time defining Moneyball principles and I think most of them are based on the movie which was very different to the book. I don't believe that is the intention of the opening post so lets try and focus on the value selections SD has made.

The definition affects the sort of names you would put forward. I understand it to mean putting value on different traits compared to other clubs, and therefore getting good players for a bargain

It's still early in his career but Caleb Daniel fits this for mine. We looked at how he won the ball and realised his game could translate to AFL level, despite his lack of height

Dahlhaus would be another, more established option. Couldn't kick, but we looked at what he could do instead

[Ghost Dog]

Who has seen Caleb at training in 2016? How is he going?

[Mofra]

From memory I think they had their evil eyes on The Bont as well until their draft picks were taken away?!?!

HEH HEH ;)
Yep - Essendon were prepared to take our pick 4 in exchange for pick 10 and Crameri.
Then they were stripped of pick 10, asked for JJ (we refused) and eventually took our second rounder as a straight swap for Crammers.

[Mofra]

I know Collingwood were trying to get an earlier pick to get The Bont.
From memory most draft pickers had us taking Scharenberg at 4 and Collingwood taking the Bont at 6, which they traded up from 11 with West Coast.

They were in love with the Bont.

[Twodogs]

From memory most draft pickers had us taking Scharenberg at 4 and Collingwood taking the Bont at 6, which they traded up from 11 with West Coast.

They were in love with the Bont.


They probably still are. The other clubs are going to make him some insane offers. We are going to have to work really hard to keep the Bont and the package in the colours.

[LostDoggy]

The Bont came from Marcellin, same school as Brayden Sier, who was training with us immediately prior to the draft. Collingwood pulled a surprise by taking him with their first pick (most phantom drafters didn't have him in the draft picks at all). Wonder if they went early, spooked by The Bont memories?

[Mofra]

They probably still are. The other clubs are going to make him some insane offers. We are going to have to work really hard to keep the Bont and the package in the colours.
We've done well to extend every contract thus far (although Wood's initial 1 year extension under Macca worried me a little).
If we can get Essendon to pay Cameri's contract this year (a distinct possibility according to afl.com) then that gives us some extra dollars to front load contracts noting we're over the cap this year under the 105% rule

[Twodogs]

We've done well to extend every contract thus far (although Wood's initial 1 year extension under Macca worried me a little).
If we can get Essendon to pay Cameri's contract this year (a distinct possibility according to afl.com) then that gives us some extra dollars to front load contracts noting we're over the cap this year under the 10% rule

Essendon paying would be a huge bonus. Anyone taking that hit to the salary cap on our behalf would be a big relief. I remember Gordon saying that we were close to the cap, 98% I think he said.

[Mantis]

The Bont came from Marcellin, same school as Brayden Sier, who was training with us immediately prior to the draft. Collingwood pulled a surprise by taking him with their first pick (most phantom drafters didn't have him in the draft picks at all). Wonder if they went early, spooked by The Bont memories?

Don't think he ever actually trained.. We just sought permission through the right channels, which is what quite a few other clubs didn't do... Can you guess which ones?

[LostDoggy]

Don't think he ever actually trained.. We just sought permission through the right channels, which is what quite a few other clubs didn't do... Can you guess which ones?

Wouldn't have a clue. Do tell, I was curious about that whole process.

We ended up Rookieing 1 of the players (Goetz) so I presume there was a genuine interest there.

[bornadog]

(although Wood's initial 1 year extension under Macca worried me a little).

This was very intriguing to say the least. Under Bevo, Wood has turned into an AA player, a B&F and vice captain.

[Mofra]

This was very intriguing to say the least. Under Bevo, Wood has turned into an AA player, a B&F and vice captain.
Perhaps he was testing the RFA waters but under Bevo he's happier now so signed a linger extension?

[Twodogs]

Perhaps he was testing the RFA waters but under Bevo he's happier now so signed a linger extension?

I'd say so and honestly why would you want to swap clubs when it gas come together so well with us? Who knows if you'll ever get the same conditions and freedom to play at another club?

[boydogs]

If we can get Essendon to pay Cameri's contract this year (a distinct possibility according to afl.com) then that gives us some extra dollars to front load contracts noting we're over the cap this year under the 105% rule

Enter Zaine Cordy

[jeemak]

This was very intriguing to say the least. Under Bevo, Wood has turned into an AA player, a B&F and vice captain.


Perhaps he was testing the RFA waters but under Bevo he's happier now so signed a linger extension?

If I've learned anything about JMac and our list management from recent examples, guys like Wood two years ago and Grant this last year would have had fairly limited options presented to them.

Wood, was at best a moderatelyr-performing and regularly injured player who whilst playing on large opponents out of necessity didn't account for himself very well at times. Whilst he only signed on for one year, I'd bet his two year option probably wasn't any where near what he thought he could earn through an open market scenario.