Bulldog4life
07-06-2016, 09:54 AM
fantasy.foxsports.com.au/afl/predictor/tipping/#predictor/million
NATHAN Buckley, Damien Hardwick and Alan Richardson can start channelling Lloyd Christmas.
The bowl-cutted goofball from Dumb and Dumber beamed “So you’re telling me there’s a chance” when told his odds of wooing a girl were one in a million — and it’s a similar story for Collingwood, Richmond and St Kilda.
Exclusive Champion Data statistics reveal those clubs are all just a 1 per cent chance of reaching this year’s finals.
“We are still firmly of the belief that if we get everything right we can challenge for the eight,” Tigers coach “Dimma” Hardwick said on Saturday.
“It is going to be incredibly tough (but) we’ve done it before. We’ll back ourselves in and give ourselves every chance.”
Sorry, Dimma, but the AFL’s official number cruncher disagrees.
Scott Pendlebury labelled Queen’s Birthday a must-win, but the analysis says it’s almost certainly too little too late for the injury-crippled Magpies.
And Hawthorn fans dreaming of a historic fourth straight premiership have also been dealt a gloomy forecast.
Despite sitting cosy at 8-3 and with only four remaining games against top-eight clubs, the Hawks are just a one in three shot of reaching the top four.
CLUB FINALS TOP 4 TOP 2 MINOR PREM SPOON
Sydney
Swans 97% 69% 44% 26% 0%
North Melbourne 95% 59% 34% 19% 0%
GWS Giants 95% 56% 27% 12% 0%
Western Bulldogs 95%54% 27% 14% 0%
Geelong Cats 95% 53% 27% 13% 0%
Adelaide Crows 91% 41% 16% 6% 0%
Hawthorn 86% 33% 13% 5% 0%
West Coast Eagles86%31% 11% 4% 0%
Port Adelaide 38% 4% 1% 0% 0%
Carlton 11% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Melbourne 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Richmond 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
St Kilda 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Collingwood 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Gold Coast Suns 0% 0% 0% 0% 2%
Fremantle 0% 0% 0% 0% 15%
Brisbane Lions 0% 0% 0% 0% 35%
Essendon 0% 0% 0% 0% 47%
The last time Hawthorn finished outside the four was 2010, when giants were ruckmen and not a growing premiership force.
Under the current system no club has ever pinched a flag without the security of a double-chance.
Champion Data says only four clubs can collect the wooden spoon.
Essendon is nearly a 50-50 shot of clinching its first No.1 draft pick, followed by battling Brisbane.
And the statistical recipe, which factors in ladder position, draw difficulty and percentage, has marked Saturday night’s Geelong-North Melbourne clash as the most critical of Round 12.
The result will deliver a 22 per cent swing in top-four hopes for the Scott-coached clubs, with a Kangas victory set to drop the Cats’ chances to just 40 per cent.
Ouch.
The calculator has also done no favours for Melbourne.
The Demons are poised to finally enter a Queen’s Birthday clash as favourite, but the maths says this game borders on irrelevant.
A win against the Pies would only lift Melbourne to a 9 per cent chance of breaking its decade-long finals drought.
But with the top eight evenly split between Victorian and non-Victorian clubs, a top-two finish and home qualifying final also looms as crucial.
West Coast is the face of that, the Grand Finalist’s record forceful at home and farcical on the road.
Well, after losing to the Bulldogs the Eagles hopes of emulating last year’s heroics have been slashed.
The bookies have the Dogs seventh in line to stay in the top four, but a win against Port Adelaide will have them in the box seat with a 64 per cent chance.
And that doesn’t consider the impending returns of All-Australian Easton Wood, dasher Jason Johannisen and No.1 pick Tom Boyd.
A Power win against the Dogs would have Ken Hinkley’s men just shy of a 50-50 hope of playing finals and continuing the trend of a side sneaking into the eight from the Round 11 mix.
Since 2000 there has been a change in all but three seasons.
And a Herald Sun ladder predictor completed yesterday resulted in five clubs tied on 16-6 with a five-game break to the ninth-placed Power.
Whether it’s equalisation or evolution, chances are we’re heading for a photo finish.
NATHAN Buckley, Damien Hardwick and Alan Richardson can start channelling Lloyd Christmas.
The bowl-cutted goofball from Dumb and Dumber beamed “So you’re telling me there’s a chance” when told his odds of wooing a girl were one in a million — and it’s a similar story for Collingwood, Richmond and St Kilda.
Exclusive Champion Data statistics reveal those clubs are all just a 1 per cent chance of reaching this year’s finals.
“We are still firmly of the belief that if we get everything right we can challenge for the eight,” Tigers coach “Dimma” Hardwick said on Saturday.
“It is going to be incredibly tough (but) we’ve done it before. We’ll back ourselves in and give ourselves every chance.”
Sorry, Dimma, but the AFL’s official number cruncher disagrees.
Scott Pendlebury labelled Queen’s Birthday a must-win, but the analysis says it’s almost certainly too little too late for the injury-crippled Magpies.
And Hawthorn fans dreaming of a historic fourth straight premiership have also been dealt a gloomy forecast.
Despite sitting cosy at 8-3 and with only four remaining games against top-eight clubs, the Hawks are just a one in three shot of reaching the top four.
CLUB FINALS TOP 4 TOP 2 MINOR PREM SPOON
Sydney
Swans 97% 69% 44% 26% 0%
North Melbourne 95% 59% 34% 19% 0%
GWS Giants 95% 56% 27% 12% 0%
Western Bulldogs 95%54% 27% 14% 0%
Geelong Cats 95% 53% 27% 13% 0%
Adelaide Crows 91% 41% 16% 6% 0%
Hawthorn 86% 33% 13% 5% 0%
West Coast Eagles86%31% 11% 4% 0%
Port Adelaide 38% 4% 1% 0% 0%
Carlton 11% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Melbourne 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Richmond 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
St Kilda 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Collingwood 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Gold Coast Suns 0% 0% 0% 0% 2%
Fremantle 0% 0% 0% 0% 15%
Brisbane Lions 0% 0% 0% 0% 35%
Essendon 0% 0% 0% 0% 47%
The last time Hawthorn finished outside the four was 2010, when giants were ruckmen and not a growing premiership force.
Under the current system no club has ever pinched a flag without the security of a double-chance.
Champion Data says only four clubs can collect the wooden spoon.
Essendon is nearly a 50-50 shot of clinching its first No.1 draft pick, followed by battling Brisbane.
And the statistical recipe, which factors in ladder position, draw difficulty and percentage, has marked Saturday night’s Geelong-North Melbourne clash as the most critical of Round 12.
The result will deliver a 22 per cent swing in top-four hopes for the Scott-coached clubs, with a Kangas victory set to drop the Cats’ chances to just 40 per cent.
Ouch.
The calculator has also done no favours for Melbourne.
The Demons are poised to finally enter a Queen’s Birthday clash as favourite, but the maths says this game borders on irrelevant.
A win against the Pies would only lift Melbourne to a 9 per cent chance of breaking its decade-long finals drought.
But with the top eight evenly split between Victorian and non-Victorian clubs, a top-two finish and home qualifying final also looms as crucial.
West Coast is the face of that, the Grand Finalist’s record forceful at home and farcical on the road.
Well, after losing to the Bulldogs the Eagles hopes of emulating last year’s heroics have been slashed.
The bookies have the Dogs seventh in line to stay in the top four, but a win against Port Adelaide will have them in the box seat with a 64 per cent chance.
And that doesn’t consider the impending returns of All-Australian Easton Wood, dasher Jason Johannisen and No.1 pick Tom Boyd.
A Power win against the Dogs would have Ken Hinkley’s men just shy of a 50-50 hope of playing finals and continuing the trend of a side sneaking into the eight from the Round 11 mix.
Since 2000 there has been a change in all but three seasons.
And a Herald Sun ladder predictor completed yesterday resulted in five clubs tied on 16-6 with a five-game break to the ninth-placed Power.
Whether it’s equalisation or evolution, chances are we’re heading for a photo finish.