After the Bye - Our run to the end of the home and away season

[Eastdog]

Our games after the bye

Swans at the SCG
Tigers at the Etihad
Gold Coast up in Cairns
Saints at Etihad
Cats at Skilled Stadium
North at Etihad
Magpies at Etihad
Bombers at Etihad
Dockers at Subiaco

How do you see us going with the fact some key players will be returning in the next couple of weeks.

[hujsh]

7-2 if we beat North. I think we should

[Eastdog]

We need to wind the games that we are expected to win to have any chance for top 4. Will be a fight to get in there that's for sure.

[GVGjr]

Hate to say it but I think 5 wins and 4 losses is closer to the mark

[Eastdog]

Could 14/15 wins be enough for too 4. Certainly would get a home Elimination final.

[Twodogs]

Hate to say it but I think 5 wins and 4 losses is closer to the mark

I'm thinking 7-2 on a break and 8-1 with the right effort. There is no valid reason that we can't beat every team on that list.

[Remi Moses]

We'll be favourites in 7 of those you'd think .
Lot to play out yet

[bulldogtragic]

I've got concerns over Sydney (very good team), Geelong & North (we were average earlier this year) and Pavlich's last game which is in WA could be one of those big emotional games we got at the wrong time for us. All that said I'd hope for 6-7 wins, but that's not enough for the top 4. It may not be enough for a home final such is the disparity between the top and bottom of the ladder. But I hope wherever and whenever we play finals we play our best footy, because it's bloody good.

[Eastdog]

I'm thinking 7-2 on a break and 8-1 with the right effort. There is no valid reason that we can't beat every team on that list.

Making sure we don't get further injuries and getting more of our personnel back would help a lot in that.

[soupman]

Hate to say it but I think 5 wins and 4 losses is closer to the mark

Which games are the likely losses? The way I see it there are only three games we don't go into as outright favourites, and I think we should win 1 of them if not pinch two.

[Eastdog]

Which games are the likely losses? The way I see it there are only three games we don't go into as outright favourites, and I think we should win 1 of them if not pinch two.

Obviously no guarentees but my thinking as well soupaman.

[GVGjr]

Which games are the likely losses? The way I see it there are only three games we don't go into as outright favourites, and I think we should win 1 of them if not pinch two.

The problem for me is that we need to bring so many players back in and it's going to take some time for them to settle back in.

We could drop the following games, Swans, Cats, North and Freo. Lets say we beat Freo or North then GC and the Saints are still no pushovers.

If the returning players come back ready to go then it's a 6 wins and 3 losses scenario for me.

[Bulldog Joe]

Obviously we need to get back some of our missing players, but our best footy is good enough to beat anyone.

We have done extremely well to be were we are given the relative inexperience of the team that has played and the number of missed games from those we expect to be in our best 22.

The positive from that is the additional experience gained by Williams and Dunkley and others.

It will be hard to keep Williams out of our best side based on his improvement.

There must be something very right with our development when you see these players step up and contribute.

Everyone on the park and we are very dangerous.

[GVGjr]

Obviously we need to get back some of our missing players, but our best footy is good enough to beat anyone.

We have done extremely well to be were we are given the relative inexperience of the team that has played and the number of missed games from those we expect to be in our best 22.




I agree with that. It just comes down to how long it takes the boys to settle back into the tempo. Some of them have missed a lot of footy.

[Bulldog Joe]

I agree with that. It just comes down to how long it takes the boys to settle back into the tempo. Some of them have missed a lot of footy.

I think the issue is more about fitness initially. Hopefully players like JJ will be ready to go pretty quickly, while Easton Wood needs to be on song basically immediately.

Dahlhaus may be more difficult if he does not get enough fitness running before he resumes.

[Eastdog]

I agree with that. It just comes down to how long it takes the boys to settle back in the tempo. Some of them have missed a lot of footy.

Yes good point GVG. Just depends really on how fit they are and if they have done enough training/work to be very good in our side.

[hujsh]

Hate to say it but I think 5 wins and 4 losses is closer to the mark

I know you've given different reasons for your prediction but do you think you'd have made this prediction 1 week and 1 day ago?

The good thing about this team is that they haven't dropped a game against any teams they should beat. All our losses have been against the best teams in the comp so I'm somewhat confident (compared to normal) about 6 of those 9 games.

[comrade]

6 more wins gets us to 15 and an improvement on last year. Considering our tougher draw and injury run, that's a pass for me. Probably gets us a home final too.

Next year is go time.

[SonofScray]

6 and 3, I can see us dropping some games as we reintroduce platters back from jury and start shifting back towards the Men of Mayhem stuff we saw earlier in the season and for parts of last. Our defence has been terrific, but as we start trying to get the scoreboard ticking over again off of half back I can see us getting into temporary strife.

Then we'll go on and win the flag.

[EasternWest]

6 and 3, I can see us dropping some games as we reintroduce platters back from jury and start shifting back towards the Men of Mayhem stuff we saw earlier in the season and for parts of last. Our defence has been terrific, but as we start trying to get the scoreboard ticking over again off of half back I can see us getting into temporary strife.

Then we'll go on and win the flag.

Platters back from jury. That's gold SOS.

[GVGjr]

I know you've given different reasons for your prediction but do you think you'd have made this prediction 1 week and 1 day ago?

The good thing about this team is that they haven't dropped a game against any teams they should beat. All our losses have been against the best teams in the comp so I'm somewhat confident (compared to normal) about 6 of those 9 games.

It's a realisation that as soon as we think our injured players are due back it's inevitably gets pushed back by another one or two weeks. Trying to manage players returning from significant breaks often requires them to be eased back into the mix. It's at this stage it could easily result in a winnable game or two being dropped.

As I write, the Saints just knocked over Geelong and we will be playing them soon. It they're on they could be another difficult game for us.

[The Underdog]

Beating Sydney next week is a huge game in the context of the losses by Geelong and North. It would put us equal with all of those teams and the Giants. Lose and we're at a real disadvantage

[Eastdog]

Beating Sydney next week is a huge game in the context of the losses by Geelong and North. It would put us equal with all of those teams and the Giants. Lose and we're at a real disadvantage

I'm expecting us to come strong next week against the Swans. Need a big game from our team.

[bulldogtragic]

Sydney is the must win game. Adelaide have Melbourne & WCE have Essendon. If they win them, and lose to Sydney we are comfortably in 8th and then battling to fight up the ladder and hope results fall our way. So here's hoping for another dose of great win at the SCG.

[Remi Moses]

I don't reckon Melbourne are a monty to get beaten by the Crows .
Adelaide are flying, but they're pretty healthy at the moment

[SonofScray]

Platters back from jury. That's gold SOS.

Ha! Autocorrect on the new iPad has done me in here. But you could make an argument that those platters could be a real disruption.

[ledge]

Platters back from jury. That's gold SOS.

Jury duty can be a long time and it seems they have moved up in the world getting platters . I did it years ago and you had to buy your own food !

[Ozza]

Reckon you need 16+ wins to make top 4 this year. With the bottom 4 barely winning a game, there is a lot of pressure up the top to secure spots. 14 wins might be 8th this year. We have to be going 6-3 as a minimum on the home stretch - and I think we can.

[Eastdog]

Reckon you need 16+ wins to make top 4 this year. With the bottom 4 barely winning a game, there is a lot of pressure up the top to secure spots. 14 wins might be 8th this year. We have to be going 6-3 as a minimum on the home stretch - and I think we can.

Any win whether it be by 1 point or 80 points are much more valuable now and just one loss can make a huge difference. We need to try and win games by as much as we can to get that percentage up.

[bulldogsthru&thru]

I think we finish 15-7 at best tbh. This will put us anywhere from 6th to 8th, most likely 7th or 8th.

Let's face it, we haven't been playing particularly well as of late - injuries a big part of that though. GWS we weren't good enough, collingwood and west coast we were lucky as was the game against port - all 3 of those teams you would expect a top 4 team to beat fairly easily. Then add the really bad loss to geelong and we're not in the best form. The most disappointing part of the geelong loss was that is seemed almost identical to the north loss. So thats a bit concerning if we haven't been able to rectify/overcome a particular game plan against us. Injuries certainly don't help thats for sure.

The Sydney game is huge to set the tone for the 2nd half of the season, but also agree that Richmond, Gold Coast and Saints are far from pushovers. We need to steal a win over either sydney, north or geelong and win the games we are expected to - the saints one concerns me the most as they're playing well and their pressure is fantastic and we will be returning from a trip in the Cairns heat. We're up against it if we continue our current form.

[bornadog]

Doing the ladder predictor I have us finishing around 15/16 games depending on beating The Swans. Even with that many wins, we are going to need other top four sides to drop games. I think it will be tight and percentage will also play a part.

[bulldogsthru&thru]

Doing the ladder predictor I have us finishing around 15/16 games depending on beating The Swans. Even with that many wins, we are going to need other top four sides to drop games. I think it will be tight and percentage will also play a part.

yeah the current top 4 and adelaide have fairly comfortable runs home so i can't see us going past any of them unless we really get going. On the ladder predictors i have us finishing 6th or 7th and thats with us winning all the games we should.

On a side note, the saints are a sneaky chance of making the 8 - if they can knock off north they are a very small chance of doing it - everything would have to fall into place though, but they have an easy run home.

[F'scary]

Bottom teams could start winning some. Freo have started and the Saints look like they can beat anyone on their day.

[boydogs]

Agree with the consensus of 15-7 or 16-6, but I think either will be good enough for top 4, though 15-7 may be on percentage. Things don't play out the way you might think when doing a ladder predictor, St Kilda beating Geelong for instance wouldn't have been in anyone's predictions

[Hotdog60]

I did the ladder predictor and had us finishing on top of the ladder as minor premiers.

You lot have little faith. :D

[Murphy'sLore]

With the election and our Sydney game on the same day, I have to say at this point I'm fretting more about the result of the latter.

[Ozza]

With the election and our Sydney game on the same day, I have to say at this point I'm fretting more about the result of the latter.

We have played Sydney in Sydney on an election day before - late in the season 2010. Was not a good result.

[Axe Man]

I've got concerns over Sydney (very good team), Geelong & North (we were average earlier this year) and Pavlich's last game which is in WA could be one of those big emotional games we got at the wrong time for us. All that said I'd hope for 6-7 wins, but that's not enough for the top 4. It may not be enough for a home final such is the disparity between the top and bottom of the ladder. But I hope wherever and whenever we play finals we play our best footy, because it's bloody good.

7 more wins will give us 16 - has a side ever missed the top 4 with 16 wins?

[Axe Man]

Champion Data's finals chances calculation:
https://s32.postimg.org/89hxqa2v9/Finals_Chances_2016.jpg (https://postimage.org/)

[comrade]

I hate GWS.

[Twodogs]

I hate GWS.

Me too. They smell. Bad.

I love how Richmind are a 2% chance to make the finals. Like Jim Carey in Dumb and Dumber, "you're telling me that I've got a chance" when Cameron Diaz tells him the odds of them getting together are a million to one.

[Ozza]

Me too. They smell. Bad.

I love how Richmind are a 2% chance to make the finals. Like Jim Carey in Dumb and Dumber, "you're telling me that I've got a chance" when Cameron Diaz tells him the odds of them getting together are a million to one.

Lauren Holly twodogs!

'So you're telling me there's a chance!!!!'.

[Twodogs]

Lauren Holly twodogs!

'So you're telling me there's a chance!!!!'.

Could have sworn it was CD. Is she even in it?

[comrade]

Cameron Diaz was the love interest with Carrey in The Mask.

[boydogs]

Adelaide won't make top 4

West Coast home, Port, Freo away, Geelong away will all stretch them. If they don't win any of those they finish on 14 wins

[Mantis]

Adelaide won't make top 4

West Coast home, Port, Freo away, Geelong away will all stretch them. If they don't win any of those they finish on 14 wins

Adel are a good side.. Can only see them struggling with Geel from that group of matches.

[Twodogs]

Adel are a good side.. Can only see them struggling with Geel from that group of matches.

Do Port lift for the showdowns? Might sneak one past them then.

[Ozza]

Agree that Adelaide are a good side. Saw them live on Thursday night - and they set the ground up really well. There's a lot of talk about their forward line, but I was really impressed with their backline - and how they were rarely out of position once North won back the ball.

I they stay healthy - they would certainly be a big chance of top 4. Tex is definitely carrying an injury - but they do have a number of options if he goes down for a few weeks at some point.

[comrade]

It's obvious that the healthiest teams in the top 8 will go the deepest. Adelaide, Geelong & GWS have had a dream run with barely a key player missing. No surprise all 3 clubs are flying.

Hawks have taken some hits but are hardened enough to cope, North are battling now they've lost some personnel and we've done well to hold the fort but have come up against good teams without some of our best players which has hurt us.

You can't go through the year without some sort of injury crisis. North were being lauded for their lack of injuries the week before they started dropping like flies. Interesting to see how the Cats, Crows and Plastics go when it's their turn. I reckon the Cats in particular will really struggle if they were to lose even 1 or 2 important players (Selwood, Taylor, Danger caliber).

[Yankee Hotel Foxtrot]

Hate to say it but I think 5 wins and 4 losses is closer to the mark

I tend to agree.
To win more than 5 will mean we not only win ALL the games we're expected to, but also will need to take a win against Swans, Cats, North and also Freo in Perth in the last round.
We would also want to be mindful of the Saints...if we're not on key they could easily cause an upset.
We are currently 0 and 3 against the top 4 sides this year...so we're going to have to somehow do more than what we've achieved to date and with some key guys either missing or coming back after significant time off.