Your Final 8 Prediction

[bulldogtragic]

I thought I'd start a predictor thread. The 8 is virtually set, and there's some big games between the top 8 teams. Here's my guess at the final ladder predictor.

End of Round 15:

1 Hawthorn 14 11 0 3 119.60 44
2 Geelong 14 10 0 4 139.20 40
3 GWS 14 10 0 4 138.60 40
4 Sydney 14 10 0 4 137.00 40
5 Adelaide 14 10 0 4 128.00 40
6 Bulldogs 14 10 0 4 118.60 40
7 Nth Melb 14 10 0 4 116.60 40
8 WCE 14 9 0 5 134.80 36


R16:

Hawks def Power (Hawks 48 pts)
Geelong def Sydney (Geelong 44 pts & Sydney 40 pts)
GWS def Collingwood (GWS 44 pts)
Dogs def Richmond (Dogs 44 pts)
WCE def North (Both 40 pts)
Adelaide def Carlton (Adelaide 44 pts)

R17:

Sydney def Hawthorn (Hawks 48 pts, Sydney 44 pts)
North def Port (North 44 pts)
Adelaide def Collingwood (Adeliade 48 pts)
GWS def Lions (GWS 48 pts)
Dogs def Suns (48 pts)
WCE def Carlton (WCE 44 pts)
Geelong def Freo (Geelong 48 points)

R18:

WCE def Melb (WCE 48 pts)
Dogs def St Kilda (Dogs 52 pts)
Geelong def Adelaide (Geelong 52 pts, Adeliade 48 pts)
Hawks def Richmond (Hawks 52 pts)
GWS def Power (GWS 52 pts)
North def Collingwood (North 48 pts)
Sydney def Carlton (Sydney 48 pts)

R19:

WCE def Collingwood (WCE 52 pts)
North def St Kilda (North 52 pts)
Hawks def Carlton (Hawks 56 pts)
Adelaide def Essendon (Adelaide 52 pts)
Sydney def Freo (Sydney 52 pts)
GWS def Richmond (GWS 56 pts)
Geelong def Dogs (Geelong 56 pts, Dogs 52 pts)

R20:

Hawks def Melb (Hawks 60 pts)
Sydney def Port (Sydney 56 pts)
GWS def Suns (GWS 60 pts)
Dogs def North (Dogs 56 pts, North 52 pts)
Adelaide def Brisbane (Adelaide 56 pts)
Geelong def Essendon (Geelong 60 pts)
WCE def Freo (WCE 56 pts)

R21:

Dogs def Collingwood (Dogs 60 pts)
Hawks def North (Hawks 64 pts, North 52 pts)
Adelaide def Freo (Adelaide 60 pts)
Geelong def Richmond (Geelong 64 pts)
Sydney def St Kilda (Sydney 60 pts)
GWS def WCE (GWS 64 pts, WCE 56 pts)

R22:

WCE def Hawks (WCE 60 pts, Hawks 64 pts)
North def Sydney (North 56 pts, Sydney 60 pts)
GWS def Freo (GWS 68 points)
Power def Adelaide (Adelaide 60 pts)
Geelong def Brisbane (Geelong 68 pts)
Dogs def Essendon (Dogs 64 pts)

R23:

Geelong def Melbourne (Geelong 72 pts)
Freo def Dogs (Dogs 64 pts) (Pavlich factor)
Adelaide def WCE (Adelaide 64 points, WCE 60 pts)
North def GWS (North 60 pts, GWS 68 pts)
Sydney def Richmond (Sydney 64 points)
Hawks def Collingwood (Hawks 68 points)

For:

1. Geelong 72
2. GWS 68
3. Hawks 68
4. Sydney 64
5. Adelaide 64
6. Dogs 64
7. WCE 60
8. North 60

So virtually no change from today's ladder. For Dogs vs West Coast Eagles at the MCG (not our home ground Etihad). We'd have to be odds on in such an eventuality.

Any talking points in all of this?

[ledge]

Very hard to predict with percentages coming into account. You need to predict win amounts to know who will be where if so many on same points. We have a few we should build percentage on.

[comrade]

I'd happily take on the Eagles in Melbourne first week of the finals. In fact, I'd be reasonably confident against any team in Melbourne.

Would hate to travel to the GWS **** hole but it would be so sweet to beat them on their own dung hill.

[BornInDroopSt'54]

Hawks
Cats
GWS
Swans
Bulldogs
Crows
Kangas
Eagles
We beat the Eagles at Etihad, Hawks at MCG, Cats in the PF and Swans in the GF.

[Remi Moses]

Wouldn't be surprised if the Pav pulls the pin in the Derby .

[anfo27]

Port not easy to beat at home. I think the power will get the hawks at home and GWS might get a surprise there to.

[azabob]

Port not easy to beat at home. I think the power will get the hawks at home and GWS might get a surprise there to.

They are not easy to beat at home, but they are still yet to beat a top 8 team this season - home or away.

[boydogs]

We've always had the last 3 rounds up our sleeve for percentage, against Collingwood, Essendon and Freo. We're 20% behind GWS, Sydney, West Coast and Geelong so that might be too big a gap but we should finish ahead of Hawthorn & North and catch Adelaide

[LostDoggy]

I would be massively disappointed if we drop R23 to Freo and blow a top 4 position. By then they'll be utterly cooked. If we need to win that to make the top 4, I'd back us in. The problematic games for mine are Geelong and North, if we win 1 of those 2, then we are a huge chance for top 4.

[Twodogs]

Im worried about the Suns. i don't know why.

[bulldogtragic]

Im worried about the Suns. i don't know why.

Melanoma?

We should have them covered.

[BornInDroopSt'54]

I have us only losing one game hereafter but still we only make fifth.

[Twodogs]

Could be melanoma. I hope that's all it is.

[BornInDroopSt'54]

Don't make light of the dark patch.

[bulldogsthru&thru]

First and foremost we need to take care of business against the non top 8 sides. The next 3 weeks in particular are against the better top 8 teams so they are very important.

[bornadog]

If we beat North then:

1. Geelong
2. Adelaide
3. Bulldogs
4. GWS
5. Sydney
6. Hawks
7. West Coast
8. North

If we lose to North then:

1. Geelong
2. Adelaide
3. GWS
4. Sydney
5. Bulldogs
6. Hawks
7. West Coast
8. North

[Ozza]

There is going to be some upsets at different stages - If we can avoid being one of the teams that drop one to a lower ladder side - then we have a chance for top 4.

We need the likes of Port Adelaide, St.Kilda, Richmond and the Gold Coast (at home) to pinch a win here and there against top 8 sides (I didn't include Melbourne - as I don't think they are capable, they just go to water against the best).

Port to beat Hawthorn this Thursday night would be big.

[bulldogtragic]

With some big results, I have Hawthorn 1st & Dogs 4th. Qualifying final MCG, possibly Friday or Saturday night. Hopefully it's a reversal of 2008 in every sense.

[1eyedog]

Sounds good. I don't want to go to Adelaide.

[hujsh]

I have us losing 1 game (Cats at Skilled) but still finishing 6th/equal 2nd. That'd mean hosting the Eagles here.

It's really a case who blinks first and drops an easy and/or expected win now

[Ozza]

I have us 5th, playing Port Adelaide.

[bulldogsthru&thru]

Impossible to predict. But the next 4 weeks are huge for us. Win all 4 and we are top 4. Win 3 we get top 4 or a home final. Win 2....7th and a possible elimination final on the road in Perth

[bornadog]

My New Prediction

1. Geelong
2. Adelaide
3. Bulldogs
4. Hawks
5. GWS
6. Sydney
7. West Coast
8. North

This is based on Richmond beating Hawks this week. If Hawks win, they go to top, we drop to 4th.

[bulldogsthru&thru]

My New Prediction

1. Geelong
2. Adelaide
3. Bulldogs
4. Hawks
5. GWS
6. Sydney
7. West Coast
8. North

This is based on Richmond beating Hawks this week. If Hawks win, they go to top, we drop to 4th.


Probably prefer the latter option anyway tbh. Adelaide in Adelaide? no way

[1eyedog]

Happy to play the Dawks in Melbourne week 1. Pretty sure it's not going to be an 8 goal first quarter by them this year. Would be another magic march to the G this year against another Victorian team with 80k+ there.

[LostDoggy]

My New Prediction

1. Geelong
2. Adelaide
3. Bulldogs
4. Hawks
5. GWS
6. Sydney
7. West Coast
8. North

This is based on Richmond beating Hawks this week. If Hawks win, they go to top, we drop to 4th.


Crows in Adelaide week one would be a massive challenge. Reckon we'd be a pretty good shot though.

I had a go at the predictor and had Hawthorn on top (18 wins), then 5 teams on 17 wins (including us, sitting 6th on percentage).
I conceded the Geelong game as a loss, but if we had've won that, we'd have ended up 1st.

Such a tight season with any slip up being very costly. Some of these top 4 aspirants will drop games they should, on paper, win. Hope like crazy it's not us.

As an aside, if we do win 5 of our last 6 and end up at 17-5, that will be our winningest h&a season of all time - a pretty great achievement in itself, especially given this squad clearly has plenty of development left in it.

[Bulldog4life]

The good thing is that we are in the top 4 now. As long as we keep winning we will stay there. It is all up to us. We don't have to rely on other teams losing. Go dogs.

[bulldogsthru&thru]

The good thing is that we are in the top 4 now. As long as we keep winning we will stay there. It is all up to us. We don't have to rely on other teams losing. Go dogs.

Makes me nervous. I hope this team can reverse my pessimistic views.

[Bulldog4life]

Makes me nervous. I hope this team can reverse my pessimistic views.

It's a good situation. I vividly remember over the last 40 years on many times hoping this team or that team will lose so we could sneak into the finals. That was being nervous

[boydogs]

Not afraid of Adelaide away at all. If they get top 2 it's due to their soft draw not their ability

Would love to get GWS at home week 1. Might even be able to play it at Etihad

[bulldogtragic]

I like looking at www.liveladders.com for their statistical ranking.

They have us 4th playing Hawthorn in the 1st QF. Win means prelim at MCG vs Adelaide/Geelong.

Loss means SF vs GWS at MCG which we should win. Then facing Adelaide/Geelong in a prelim.

I think Hawthorn get into the GF in any event. So the predicted run is 1. Hawthorn 2. GWS (if req) 3. Adelaide/Geelong 4. Hawthorn

If we are fit and play to our best, then it's not insurmountable on the prediction supplied on this site.

[comrade]

Prelim vs either Adelaide or Geelong. Yippee.

[Remi Moses]

Thankfully the players haven't lived through our pain of finals heartache .
Interesting this year that finish top 4 and win first final you'll have played one game in 3 weeks .
Not sure if that's beneficial

[Twodogs]

Thankfully the players haven't lived through our pain of finals heartache .
Interesting this year that finish top 4 and win first final you'll have played one game in 3 weeks .
Not sure if that's beneficial

It's not ideal. Silly idea by the AFL having a week off before the finals start.

[Eastdog]

Thankfully the players haven't lived through our pain of finals heartache .
Interesting this year that finish top 4 and win first final you'll have played one game in 3 weeks .
Not sure if that's beneficial

Yes my initial thinking is that it is good in that you aren't playing very week and you can rest up players who may be sore/injuried etc but if you think about it more you definitely want to keep playing and not stop especially if we have the momentum.

If they are going to have the week break before the finals then really the Round 23 fixture should have been already locked in as it wouldn't make a difference now for final teams whatever days they played.

[Murphy'sLore]

Maybe I'm missing something but it seems illogical to prevent one team from resting players by forcing every team to rest players.

[bornadog]

AFL never think when they change things.

Round 23
Rest
Final - Win
Rest
Prelim
GF

[bulldogtragic]

The website above has updated. They have Hawthorn & Adelaide fighting for top spot, but they give it to Hawthorn. Then all on equal points but on percentage (2) Geelong (2% difference) (3) Adelaide (4) Bulldogs.

So I think T&T may want to root for Hawthorn for the rest of the year. Them at the MCG is a better option than Adelaide at AO.

[comrade]

Getting Hawks first week means we avoid them in a prelim.

Winning week 1 and getting an interstate team in a prelim would be ideal.

[bulldogtragic]

Getting Hawks first week means we avoid them in a prelim.

Winning week 1 and getting an interstate team in a prelim would be ideal.

As long as it's not Adelaide. Im not sure if I have the courage to front up to another cut throat final at the MCG against Adelaide...

[comrade]

As long as it's not Adelaide. Im not sure if I have the courage to front up to another cut throat final at the MCG against Adelaide...

What better way to slay the dragon? Would be a suitable stepping stone to the ultimate fairy tale finishing.

Imagine the build up!

[LostDoggy]

This article gives a fairly thorough statistical analysis of the current state of play. Has us as a 15% chance of top 4 (38% chance before last game) and most probable finishing position of 6th.

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2016/jul/25/matter-of-stats-simulating-the-likely-afl-finalists-and-their-september-fate

[bornadog]

My new prediction

Hawks
Cats
Crows
GWS
Swans
Dogs
Wcoast
North

[bulldogsthru&thru]

My new prediction

Hawks
Cats
Crows
GWS
Swans
Dogs
Wcoast
North

My thinking is similar. The trouble is it looks like all of Cats, Crows, GWS and swans will be separated by % only!

Dogs v Eagles looking likely so it's vital for us to win 4 out of our 5 to ensure we play them in Melbourne. It's also possible with 3 wins but then we rely on the eagles losing their last 3 to GWS, Hawks and Crows.

8th will be taken by the winner of the saints and north this saturday night. Massive game

[bulldogtragic]

R20:

Hawks def Melb (Hawks 64 pts)
Sydney def Port (Sydney 56 pts)
GWS def Suns (GWS 56 pts)
Dogs def North (Dogs 52 pts, North 48 pts)
Adelaide def Brisbane (Adelaide 56 pts)
Geelong def Essendon (Geelong 56 pts)
WCE def Freo (WCE 52 pts)

R21:

Dogs def Collingwood (Dogs 56 pts)
Hawks def North (Hawks 68 pts, North 48 pts)
Adelaide def Freo (Adelaide 60 pts)
Geelong def Richmond (Geelong 60 pts)
Sydney def St Kilda (Sydney 60 pts)
GWS def WCE (GWS 60 pts, WCE 52 pts)

R22:

WCE def Hawks (WCE 56 pts, Hawks 68 pts)
North lose to Sydney (North 48 pts, Sydney 64 pts)
GWS def Freo (GWS 64 points)
Power def Adelaide (Adelaide 60 pts)
Geelong def Brisbane (Geelong 64 pts)
Dogs def Essendon (Dogs 60 pts)

R23:

Geelong def Melbourne (Geelong 68 pts)
Freo def Dogs (Dogs 60 pts) (Pavlich factor)
Adelaide def WCE (Adelaide 64 points, WCE 56 pts)
North def GWS (North 52 pts, GWS 64 pts)
Sydney def Richmond (Sydney 68 points)
Hawks def Collingwood (Hawks 72 points)

For:

1. Hawks 72
2. Geelong 68
3. Sydney 68
4. GWS 64
5. Adelaide 64
6. Dogs 60
7. WCE 56
8. North 52

For Dogs vs West Coast Eagles at the MCG (not our home ground Etihad). WCE poor recent record at the MCG would be a good factor in our favour. With percentage not a factor if we level with a team (assuming North aren't equal with us) we just need to get one win ahead and stay one win ahead of WCE = win at least 3 of the 4 and WCE to go 2 & 2.

[bulldogtragic]

If we can get that result and win, probably Sydney in Sydney. So a narrow win of course!

[Flamethrower]

The best we can hope for now is a 6th place finish and a home final against the road kill Eagles.

For the run home,
North have the hardest run - WB (50/50), Hawth (25/75), Swans (25/75) & GWS (40/60). Best 1-3, worst 0-4.
WCE have Freo (50/50), GWS (10/90), Hawth (30/70) & Adelaide (25/75). Best 1-3, worst 0-4.
We have North (50/50), Coll (60/40), Ess (95/5) & Freo (40/60). Best 4-0, worst 1-3.

The Hawks have all but sewn up top spot and an MCG Qualifying final.

That leaves posies 2 to 5 up for grabs, with Geelong, Adelaide, Sydney and the Giants unlikely to lose another game between them. Therefore percentage will decide it, and that's bad news for the Swans.

Geelong play Essendon, Richmond, Brisbane & Melbourne - 4 probable massive wins. (Currently 133%).
GWS play Gold Coast away, WCE home, Freo home & NM away. (Currently 142%).
Crows play Essendon, Brisbane, Freo away, Port & WCE at home - 2 massive % boosters there, but they are a bit behind the others (Currently 128%).
The Swans get Freo away, Port home, Saints away, NM in Hobart & Richmond at home. (Currently 134%).

That leaves the likely final ladder looking like....

1 Hawthorn 19-3
2 GWS 17-5
3 Geelong 17-5
4 Crows 17-5

5 Swans 17-5
6 WB 14-8
7 WCE 13-9
8 NM 13-9

[Remi Moses]

Wait for the meltdown if the handbaggers get GWS at spotless.
We must get 5 or 6

[Eastdog]

Wait for the meltdown if the handbaggers get GWS at spotless.
We must get 5 or 6

Yes that is ideal which would give us a home final. Would be better to play the Eagles here than the Crows. The Crows here or over there will be tough. Eagles over there tougher but not impossible. To be in with a very outside chance for the 4 we must win the next two games.

[comrade]

1 Hawthorn 19-3
2 GWS 17-5
3 Geelong 17-5
4 Crows 17-5

5 Swans 17-5
6 WB 14-8
7 WCE 13-9
8 NM 13-9

Would love that outcome.

Means we get a week 1 win against the Eagles, then likely meet Geelong at the MCG in week 2 and the Hawks at the MCG in week 3.

Swans beat up on NM, play the Crows away in week 2 who then play GWS in week 3.

Dogs v GWS...bring it on.

[bulldogtragic]

Would love that outcome.

Means we get a week 1 win against the Eagles, then likely meet Geelong at the MCG in week 2 and the Hawks at the MCG in week 3.

Swans beat up on NM, play the Crows away in week 2 who then play GWS in week 3.

Dogs v GWS...bring it on.

I'd especially love our boys to give some back to Geelong this year.

[The Bulldogs Bite]

Anyone think there's a chance we miss the 8?

[comrade]

Anyone think there's a chance we miss the 8?

1 more win has us pretty much locked in.

We still have to play Essendon and Freo.

I'm not worried.

[bulldogtragic]

Anyone think there's a chance we miss the 8?

No. But any more injuries and we are just making up the numbers.

[chef]

Anyone think there's a chance we miss the 8?

No, but i think we'll probably finish 8th. The gods are cruel.

[Eastdog]

No, but i think we'll probably finish 8th. The gods are cruel.

Will we play interstate or against a Victorian club here chef?

[chef]

Will we play interstate or against a Victorian club here chef?

Depends on who finishes 6th i guess Easty.

[Eastdog]

Depends on who finishes 6th i guess Easty.

If we finish 7th will vs 6th and finish 8th will vs 5th.

[chef]

If we finish 7th will vs 6th and finish 8th will vs 5th.

True. I guess i meant 5th:p

[chef]

And hopefully its not Adelaide or Geelong.

[Eastdog]

And hopefully its not Adelaide or Geelong.

They would be tough opponents but still you never know.

[chef]

They would be tough opponents but still you never know.

To many demons for me personally.