The Paul Roos Experiment is Nearly Over - Pass or Fail?

[bulldogtragic]

So, the Paul Roos Experiment is coming to an end in just a couple of handfuls of games. Roos contract was for $1,500,000 per year for 3 years. Have the AFL got a decent return on investment for their $4,500,000 cheque to secure Roos for Melbourne?

It's easier to start with facts:

2014: 4 wins - Finishing 17th
2015: 7 wins - Finishing 13th
2016: 6 wins - Currently 10th (Projected Finishing 14th on 9 wins)

In 2013 they gave up rights to Josh Kelly (or Bontempelli) in favour of Dom Tyson from GWS & Salem at pick 9. They brought in Bernie Vince with pick 23, Daniel Cross and some nothing player trades.
In 2014 they brought in Lamumba for Mitch Clarke, Frost for pick 23 and Brendan McCartney. They lost Frawley due to poor management.
In 2015 they gave up pick 25 for Melksham. Moved around Kennedy, Bugg and picks for Howe, Toumpass and picks.

Outside of their very top picks, they had no picks before pick 40 aiming to trade in and not draft up. Seems a very deliberate approach to avoid their recruiters and stock up on mediocre players.

All in all, was this a success to stop the rot? Or bearing all things in mind, is this a very expensive exercise in mediocre ladder progression and questionable list management?

I'm firmly in the fail camp. From 4 to 9 wins over 3 years with several top 5 picks and bringing in mature players may have stopped the rot, but it's not a great return above natural progression of the list without Roos. It probably has deflected more attention to GCS and Brisbane's failings, but not allowing the recruiters to go to the draft for 3 years between picks 10 & 40 is a crazy long term plan. We've seen gun after gun on our list in this range over the same years. Either they had no faith in their recruiters, which is somewhat understandable, or they were solely about stemming the bleeding and Roos being able to say there's more wins than losses by his final year.

As for gameplan, there's still not a coherent one that I can see. As for player development there's more concern than clear wins, Dawes has gone backwards, Watts is still treading water, Fitzpatrick looked alright and was then cut. The great white hopes in Hogan & McDonald are not yet putting pen to paper and they still seem to rely on too few too often, mostly Jones still. The pessimist in me thinks that their slight rise up the ladder may be temporary and we might be back to the same old unless their very top picks can carry them up to maybe 10th or so.

[bornadog]

Agree big fail, don't know what value he has brought to the club. Blamed everyone else for losses, and never took responsibility himself.

I watched the last quarter today against Adelaide and I saw very little intensity and willingness of players to work hard and get the ball. I don't understand their game plan either.

[Remi Moses]

Gets a lot of slack with his charm offensive ( reminds me of someone politically, but I won't say)
They had to improve eventually , but I think it's been to slow .
I would have picked Kelly every day of the week or the Bont , but I'm confused with the game style.
They focussed on defence then couldn't score, now they get opened up, but are scoring better .
Watts wil never be the player they'd hoped, as he lacks intensity and second efforts .
Today's game looked a bit like Roos on the Tarmac with his coaching super ready for Hawaii.

[Remi Moses]

Agree big fail, don't know what value he has brought to the club. Blamed everyone else for losses, and never took responsibility himself.

I watched the last quarter today against Adelaide and I saw very little intensity and willingness of players to work hard and get the ball. I don't understand their game plan either.

He threw to many under the bus to often . That's a big no no for me, blaming the previous coaching staff is wrong .

[Twodogs]

He threw to many under the bus to often . That's a big no no for me, blaming the previous coaching staff is wrong .

He was blaming the supporters in one press conference I saw.

[Bulldog4life]

It's all Macca's fault.

[Twodogs]

It's all Macca's fault.


Hehe! Very good.

[bulldogtragic]

Roos' coaching Melbourne winning numbers:

Coached 58*
Won 17*
Lost 41*

Winning 31%* (Projected 20 wins from 66 games @ 30% - Which would almost be the worst of the last decade, except Mark Neeld and Matt Primus)

Brendan McCartney: 66 for 20 wins, 46 losses and 30.3%
Brenton Sanderson: 69 for 39 wins, 30 losses and 56.5%
Michael Voss: 109 for 43 wins, 65 losses, 1 draw and 39.4%
Mark Harvey: 100 games for 41 wins, 59 losses and 41%
Plough Wallace at Richmond: 99 games for 37 wins, 60 losses and 2 draws and 36%
Matt Primus: 47 games for 13 wins, 34 losses and 28%
Scott Watters: 44 games for 17 wins, 27 losses and 38%
Guy McKenna: 88 games for 24 wins, 64 losses and 27%

[Twodogs]

Didn't think Wallace's record at Richmond was that bad. No wonder the poor bloke cops it from Richmond supporters so bad.

[bulldogtragic]

Didn't think Wallace's record at Richmond was that bad. No wonder the poor bloke cops it from Richmond supporters so bad.

Sando was north of 56%! But still dumped.

[Twodogs]

Sando was north of 56%! But still dumped.

He must have problems reporting up the line? How do you get the lemonade as a young coach with that record otherwise.

[bulldogtragic]

He must have problems reporting up the line? How do you get the lemonade as a young coach with that record otherwise.

On the flip side of all of this, the media and public are no longer talking of Melbourne being shit down, merged or re-located. Maybe that's all the AFL wanted for the $4.5m on Roos, $3m bail out and $2m on Jackson?

[jeemak]

Don't underestimate what he's done in three short years, and very scant resources or city hall support.

He's a master, and a good Aussie battler! :)

In honesty, the culture at Melbourne was seemingly irretrievable when he took over. Each year when you thought they couldn't be more pathetic from 2007 onward they managed to surprise. Every aspect of their club was terrible.

Like others, I didn't think his willingness to drive the bus over his support personnel, players, members or whoever was a particularly good look. It smelled of someone who was overly lauded throughout a career that was good, but wasn't as great as it was portrayed.

He's definitely being overpaid, and proving that the highest quality assistants in the game make excellent senior coaches excellent (2005-2006). I'm wondering whether a lesser paid person could have achieved the same if not better on-field outcome, it's even money in my view. However, the major hope for Melbourne is for all of the solid structures that he was purported to have employed and instilled at Sydney remain his legacy and will become evident in improved on field performance for the remainder of this year and beyond.

[bornadog]

He has said he might like to coach the women's team in 2017

[jeemak]

He has said he might like to coach the women's team in 2017

The Gravy Train is strong in this one........

[bulldogtragic]

He has said he might like to coach the women's team in 2017

If we're the Melbourne CEO I'd send him packing and take an organisational ruffie to forget the last three years. Unless they actually rate his achievements shading Primus & Neeld as the worst performed senior coach in a decade or so.

[LostDoggy]

He has said he might like to coach the women's team in 2017

Talk about Milking The Cow Dry.

[The Doctor]

Paul Roos has been excellent for Melbourne.

I don't care if he has blamed the previous coach, the admin, the players, the supporters, the AFL and so on. They deserved it and need to know it. Everyone knows how tripe that club was and it was never going to be a quick fix.

There is still a long way for them to go but Roos has at least put them on the right track.

[Remi Moses]

We were in bigger strife than Melbourne .
He's done an adequate job, it's a no no to blame previous administrations

[bulldogtragic]

Started his Melbourne coaching in 2014 with two losses combined of 120 points. Finished it with two losses combined of 131 points. Way to book end it.

[Bulldog Revolution]

Paul Roos has been excellent for Melbourne.

I don't care if he has blamed the previous coach, the admin, the players, the supporters, the AFL and so on. They deserved it and need to know it. Everyone knows how tripe that club was and it was never going to be a quick fix.

There is still a long way for them to go but Roos has at least put them on the right track.

I disagree a bit here Doc. I think he's been just ok, and if he didn't have his history they'd be wondering whether to re-contract him. - He blamed everybody under the sun, refused to step up and take responsibility himself, all whilst happily collecting the massive pay check.

IMO most of the improvements at Melbourne have come from recruiting and development

Roos to me is an egomaniacal charlatan whose been believing his own hype for far too long

[jeemak]

BR, I think egomaniacal charlatan is a ripping way to describe someone.

[bornadog]

BR, I think egomaniacal charlatan is a ripping way to describe someone.

Yep totally agree with BR.

[bulldogtragic]

I agree, natural development has taken them higher. There's been no amazing new style thinking that accounts for their slight rise up the ladder. Their list management has been short term thinking, this was from my OP:

(Since taking over) In 2013 they gave up rights to Josh Kelly (or Bontempelli) in favour of Dom Tyson from GWS & Salem at pick 9. They brought in Bernie Vince with pick 23, Daniel Cross and some nothing player trades.
In 2014 they brought in Lamumba for Mitch Clarke, Frost for pick 23 and Brendan McCartney. They lost Frawley due to poor management.
In 2015 they gave up pick 25 for Melksham. Moved around Kennedy, Bugg and picks for Howe, Toumpass and picks.

Their first pick this year is pick 28, which will go out further after free agency compo, academies, father/sons etc. - Pick 28 while still rebuilding, great parting gift for the club & new coach.

[ledge]

Nice way to show him you appreciated him .. Record loss

[bulldogtragic]

Nice way to show him you appreciated him .. Record loss

Maybe that's how they rate him? :D

[Bulldog Revolution]

BR, I think egomaniacal charlatan is a ripping way to describe someone.

Cheers :)

[Remi Moses]

Just a pass for me .
They had to improve given the early picks, and the dire situation they were in.
Didn't he cry up a river on Hunt not getting a rising star nomination ? Leave that to the media and fans to debate, and just coach the team . I didn't like the way he constantly played the blame game when things went wrong .
Blamed the fans, the previous administration and everyone else .

[jeemak]

He's given the Franklin signing a kicking.

http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/former-sydney-swans-coach-paul-roos-links-decline-to-buddy-franklins-signing-20170505-gvyzpj.html

I wonder why he didn't include us as a list of high depth quality..........well I think I know why.

[comrade]

He's given the Franklin signing a kicking.

http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/former-sydney-swans-coach-paul-roos-links-decline-to-buddy-franklins-signing-20170505-gvyzpj.html

I wonder why he didn't include us as a list of high depth quality..........well I think I know why.

Felt like it was just an excuse to stroke his own..uh...ego, and self promote his supposed rebuild at Melbourne. This quote sums up the delusion:


"If you look at GWS and Melbourne they have more depth. Melbourne has Lewis and Hogan out but still has talent in reserves like Kent and Brayshaw," Roos said.

He's using Kent & Brayshaw playing 2s as proof of Melbourne's superior depth. Please.

Come back to us when you've got multiple premiership players who can't get a game. And we have a million dollar signing on the books too.

[Happy Days]

I agree with Roos. There is just no way that a team who signs a player on a big money deal can do so without hamstringing the overall depth of their list and affecting their chance of success.

Wait..

[Bulldog4life]

What Roos forgot to mention that the Swans have 2 players on big contracts when you include Tippett. Just on 2 million there.

[jeemak]

He also forgot to mention the Swans access to elite talent other teams don't have due to the Academy system.

[Topdog]

He also forgot to mention that when Buddy was signed they had COLA.

He also forgot to mention that the new EBA is about to be signed and the contract value will change dramatically.

He also forgot to investigate and mention how Buddy is paid, is he actually paid $1m a year or was it front/back loaded?

[Bulldog4life]

He also forgot to mention that when Buddy was signed they had COLA.

He also forgot to mention that the new EBA is about to be signed and the contract value will change dramatically.

He also forgot to investigate and mention how Buddy is paid, is he actually paid $1m a year or was it front/back loaded?

It was back loaded Td. I read about it recently. Each year from now on he is going to be paid more.

[Topdog]

So as the EBA goes up his payments go up. And as EBA is not signed yet its impossible to make a determination on the impact of that.

[Bulldog4life]

Lance Franklin is contracted to be paid close to $1.5 million in the eighth year of his ground-breaking nine-year contract, with the superstar forward's payments due to peak in the seventh and eighth seasons.

Fairfax Media has learnt some details of Franklin's unprecedented contract, which sees him paid at the low end in the first two seasons of 2014 and 2015, when he receives about $700,000 a year, but it rises to around $1.2 million in the third season (2016) and remains at about $1.2 million in both years four (2017) and five (2018).

Franklin's remuneration then rises further in the sixth, seventh and eighth years, before dropping to roughly $1 million in the ninth and final year, by which stage Franklin will be 36.

http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/revealed-buddy-franklin-to-profit-heavily-in-later-years-of-megadeal-20131009-2v8qk.html

[Twodogs]

It may as well have been titled "the reasons I think I'm better than John Longmire"

Wasn't he going to America?

[hujsh]

He also forgot to mention that when Buddy was signed they had COLA.

He also forgot to mention that the new EBA is about to be signed and the contract value will change dramatically.

He also forgot to investigate and mention how Buddy is paid, is he actually paid $1m a year or was it front/back loaded?
And Sydney have surely been hurt by not being able to sign any players when COLA was removed (even to find players who were lacking opportunities elsewhere like we did with Biggs)

[jeemak]

And Sydney have surely been hurt by not being able to sign any players when COLA was removed (even to find players who were lacking opportunities elsewhere like we did with Biggs)

It could be that their recruiting has gone off the boil, and that the picks they've used haven't been of the quality required.