Can we make Top 4?

[Eastdog]

Our last 4 games of the Home and away season

R20 v North at Etihad
R21 v Coll at Etihad
R22 v Ess at Etihad
R23 v Fre at Domain Stadium

Would winning all 4 do it?. It would have to depend on the margins in the games though. Will be difficult but not out of the question and if the sides around us drop games you never know.

[Ghost Dog]

If we can beat North I think we can. But another honourable loss or touch wood, serious injury could damage the players motivation.

[MrMahatma]

I don't think so. I think we'll come 5-6th.

[Eastdog]

Really need to win the next 2 to give ourselves any chance as you would think Essendon and Freo should be wins.

Well done on 1000 posts on woof MrMahtma.

redders70 recently got there as well.

[Twodogs]

Of course we can. We just have to win our last four and wait for a couple of other clubs to stumble and lose games they have to win. There is no reason why that can't happen. The situation is far from dire.

[Ghost Dog]

We have most of the players who were BOG when we beat them in 2015. Minus Wally and Jack. We were missing Libba at the time as well.
Their list is almost the same. So, on paper, let it rip.

[Remi Moses]

Wont make top 4 .
Gotta get 6th

[bulldogsthru&thru]

Wont make top 4 .
Gotta get 6th

Agreed. Top 4 is gone. We need to win one more game than the eagles to snag 6th and play them in a final at home. Don't do that and we play them in Perth. It should be doable though. Our run home: North, Pies, Bombers, Dockers. Their run home: Dockers, Giants, Hawks, Crows.

If ever there is a year to finish out of the top 4 and go all the way it's this year with a) such a close top 8 and b) the week off before the finals potentially leaving teams that go straight through to the preliminary final vulnerable.

[bulldogtragic]

No. The aim needs to be to get ourselves ahead of WCE and get them at the MCG.

[LostDoggy]

I had a go at the estimator and had us finishing 6th, regardless of this weeks result.

Upsets could happen, but even with us winning all 4 remaining games I had the teams finishing 4th and 5th a game and percentage ahead of us, so it'd require 2 teams slipping up badly. I reckon a home final against WCE looks our most likely outcome, and not a bad one at that.

[1eyedog]

Winning a final has to be the goal from here. MaCrae, Libba, Wally, Murphy and no Crameri it's just a bridge too far without these guys.

[Bulldog4life]

No. The aim needs to be to get ourselves ahead of WCE and get them at the MCG.

Yes. Hopefully 6th will do it. Hopefully Norf won't win any of their last 3. If they do we might play them.

[LostDoggy]

Winning a final has to be the goal from here. MaCrae, Libba, Wally, Murphy and no Crameri it's just a bridge too far without these guys.

That's a realistic point of view, but if we do win our first final - who knows what could happen from there?

[Mantis]

Winning a final has to be the goal from here. MaCrae, Libba, Wally, Murphy and no Crameri it's just a bridge too far without these guys.

Macrae will be back for the finals.

No Libba makes it tough, but it's very even and if we have luck through the finals we can still go deep.

[SlimPickens]

No. The aim needs to be to get ourselves ahead of WCE and get them at the MCG.

I would hope we don't get shafted again, if this is the fixture it should be at Etihad!

[bulldogtragic]

I would hope we don't get shafted again, if this is the fixture it should be at Etihad!

So would I, and it should be at Etihad. But experience tells me we will get shafted again by the AFEL.

[Eastdog]

So would I, and it should be at Etihad. But experience tells me we will get shafted again by the AFEL.

Ultimately we need to hone our game at the MCG as this is where the grand final will be played but there is a fair argument that in the 1st week of the finals that the AFL can be more flexible with the venues ie: plays a game at Etihad etc. Adelaide Oval, SCG, Subiaco, Gabba are used in finals and they do not fit anywhere near 100,000.

[Twodogs]

Knowing the AFL we'll be forced to play our home final at Subiaco.

[bulldogtragic]

Knowing the AFL we'll be forced to play our home final at Subiaco.

Everyone knows the Western Bulldogs home ground is in Western Australia. Western Bulldogs, Western Australia. Western. Dur.

[merantau]

We really have to win all four games to finish top four and even then it is not guaranteed. Dropping the game to St Kilda was a real blow. I think we can beat North but then we face the Pies who are playing decent football. Avoiding a trip to Perth is paramount.

[boydogs]

I think we're done Easty. Half the side is injured and half of the rest are underdone. Wouldn't be surprised if we lose to North now, we're not a top 8 side in this state

[Ghost Dog]

I think we're done Easty. Half the side is injured and half of the rest are underdone. Wouldn't be surprised if we lose to North now, we're not a top 8 side in this state

Is it in our long term interests to make top 4 at this point? Heart says 'fight!', but head says ' start planning for next year'.

[LostDoggy]

Is it in our long term interests to make top 4 at this point? Heart says 'fight!', but head says ' start planning for next year'.

How could it not be in our long term interests? Every final we can play in will only be to our long term betterment I reckon, the deeper we can go this year can only assist in our plans for future years.

[Bulldog Joe]

With the injury list it is going to be hard to win either of our next 2.

Even the Essendon and Freo games are losable.

If you compare our available list we are probably missing more best 22 players than Essendon have in their banned 12. They were permitted experienced top ups. I don't know the stats from last weekend, but I expect we were much less experienced than the side that represented Essendon.

If we ever get a reasonable run from the footy gods with this list ......

[bornadog]

With the injury list it is going to be hard to win either of our next 2.

Even the Essendon and Freo games are losable.

If you compare our available list we are probably missing more best 22 players than Essendon have in their banned 12. They were permitted experienced top ups. I don't know the stats from last weekend, but I expect we were much less experienced than the side that represented Essendon.

If we ever get a reasonable run from the footy gods with this list ......

Last weekend we had the second least experienced by one game in the AFL. Only Brisbane were less experienced 65 to our 66.

[Nuggety Back Pocket]

With the injury list it is going to be hard to win either of our next 2.

Even the Essendon and Freo games are losable.

If you compare our available list we are probably missing more best 22 players than Essendon have in their banned 12. They were permitted experienced top ups. I don't know the stats from last weekend, but I expect we were much less experienced than the side that represented Essendon.

If we ever get a reasonable run from the footy gods with this list ......
I would think that we are potentially 12 players down from our best team, which includes Liberatore Macrae Wallis Redpath Murphy Crameri M Boyd Morris McLean Suckling Campbell and Adams. It does place us in a very vulnerable position. It is pretty remarkable to think that with all of that we are still a finals contender. Two of our regulars in Dahlhaus and JJ have also missed a lot of football this year through injuries.

[1eyedog]

Macrae will be back for the finals.

No Libba makes it tough, but it's very even and if we have luck through the finals we can still go deep.

Yeah I think we can win a final but we'll really struggle to make top 4 as per the OP from here.

[westdog54]

Last weekend we had the second least experienced by one game in the AFL. Only Brisbane were less experienced 65 to our 66.

I'm assuming that's average games played? If so it only underlines how unlucky we were.

I still maintain that we win that game if Libba and Macrae stay on the park.

[LostDoggy]

I'm assuming that's average games played? If so it only underlines how unlucky we were.

I still maintain that we win that game if Libba and Macrae stay on the park.

It certainly would've been close. In both of the last 2 games we were about level at 3QT but got slaughtered in the rotations over the last quarter due to a lack of available players (although we did benefit from this earlier in the year against Collingwood).

Against Geelong, the problem was amplified because the missing players were amongst our best.

[westdog54]

It certainly would've been close. In both of the last 2 games we were about level at 3QT but got slaughtered in the rotations over the last quarter due to a lack of available players (although we did benefit from this earlier in the year against Collingwood).

Against Geelong, the problem was amplified because the missing players were amongst our best.

One of them was BOG up until that point and had curbed the influence of the bloke who would end up being the matchwinner.

[bornadog]

I'm assuming that's average games played? If so it only underlines how unlucky we were.

I still maintain that we win that game if Libba and Macrae stay on the park.

Yes average games played. I agree, with Libba in for the rest of the 2nd quarter and 2nd half, the result very may have been different.

[Ghost Dog]

Yes average games played. I agree, with Libba in for the rest of the 2nd quarter and 2nd half, the result very may have been different.

Agree. Like to add, Boyd only played have the game in the forward line and still kicked 3 goals.

[LostDoggy]

Presuming we win our last 3 games and WCE lose at least 1 game, our path to the top 4 requires 2 of the top 5 teams dropping 2 of 3 games.

Their fixtures are:

Hawthorn; NM at MCG, WCE in Perth, Collingwood at MCG
Sydney; StKilda at Etihad, North in Hobart, Richmond at SCG
Geelong; Richmond at MCG, Brisbane in Brisbane, Melbourne at Geelong
GWS; WCE at Spotless, Freo at Spotless, North at Etihad
Adelaide; Freo at Freo, Port in Adelaide, WCE in Adelaide

Unfortnately the chances look slim as, amazingly, none of the teams meet each other.

[Cyberdoggie]

Presuming we win our last 3 games and WCE lose at least 1 game, our path to the top 4 requires 2 of the top 5 teams dropping 2 of 3 games.

Their fixtures are:

Hawthorn; NM at MCG, WCE in Perth, Collingwood at MCG
Sydney; StKilda at Etihad, North in Hobart, Richmond at SCG
Geelong; Richmond at MCG, Brisbane in Brisbane, Melbourne at Geelong
GWS; WCE at Spotless, Freo at Spotless, North at Etihad
Adelaide; Freo at Freo, Port in Adelaide, WCE in Adelaide

Unfortnately the chances look slim as, amazingly, none of the teams meet each other.
you could say that the teams most likely to lose 2 games are probably the swans and the hawks.

So little chance of us making the 4. Lost it when we lost to Geelong.

[comrade]

you could say that the teams most likely to lose 2 games are probably the swans and the hawks.

So little chance of us making the 4. Lost it when we lost to Geelong.

The Saints game was the killer. Should have won that.

[LostDoggy]

No team in VFL/AFL history has ever won 16 games in a season and missed the top 4. After all we've overcome this year, this is increasingly looking to be our outcome.

[Eastdog]

No team in VFL/AFL history has ever won 16 games in a season and missed the top 4. After all we've overcome this year, this is increasingly looking to be our outcome.

Definitely a huge possibility especially if we can win and win well to increase that percentage. That will give us the best possible chance but even if we don't end up getting there I still give us a chance as this season there has been no real standout.

[1eyedog]

Definitely a huge possibility especially if we can win and win well to increase that percentage. That will give us the best possible chance but even if we don't end up getting there I still give us a chance as this season there has been no real standout.

Agreed on us being a chance if we secure a home final. With the Cats winning yesterday I think our hopes are greatly diminished. We need Geelong to drop the Gabba game and the game at home against the Dees. Adelaide and Sydney's positions look strong and their draws indicate they'll both win at least one more each.

We need to win our last two games and hope the Crows beat the Eagles in Round 23 at home, which they should. We'll then get the Eagles at the G. Win that and we'll likely be travelling interstate.

[G-Mo77]

Agreed on us being a chance if we secure a home final. With the Cats winning yesterday I think our hopes are greatly diminished. We need Geelong to drop the Gabba game and the game at home against the Dees. Adelaide and Sydney's positions look strong and their draws indicate they'll both win at least one more each.

We need to win our last two games and hope the Crows beat the Eagles in Round 23 at home, which they should. We'll then get the Eagles at the G. Win that and we'll likely be travelling interstate.

I think Norf will beat the Giants in Round 23, we'll finish 5th and line up against the Roos at the MCG. I don't care who we play as long as it doesn't involve travelling to Western Australia.

[1eyedog]

I think Norf will beat the Giants in Round 23, we'll finish 5th and line up against the Roos at the MCG. I don't care who we play as long as it doesn't involve travelling to Western Australia.

Ah yeah I forgot about that game.

[bornadog]

IF: Crows win, North win, Collingwood by 3 goals we can make top 4 with a win.

[westdog54]

IF: Crows win, North win, Collingwood by 3 goals we can make top 4 with a win.

And play Sydney in Sydney, which is something of a happy hunting ground for us.

Unless its being played on that Deathtrap at Homebush.

[chef]

And play Sydney in Sydney, which is something of a happy hunting ground for us.

Unless its being played on that Deathtrap at Homebush.

Final would be at Homebush.

[westdog54]

Final would be at Homebush.

Would be our first game there.

Does anyone know how it compares to Etihad in terms of dimensions?

[chef]

Etihad
Ground dimensions: 159.5m x 128.8m

Homebush
170m x 128m

[Axe Man]

Would be our first game there.

Does anyone know how it compares to Etihad in terms of dimensions?

Etihad: 159.5m x 128.8m
ANZ: 160m x 118m

Very unlikely for all those results to fall our way, but if you think Adelaide, North, Collingwood and Bulldogs can all win you should throw a couple of bucks on a multi, it will pay over $20. ;)

[Axe Man]

Etihad
Ground dimensions: 159.5m x 128.8m

Homebush
170m x 128m

I don't think those ANZ dimensions are correct.

[chef]

I don't think those ANZ dimensions are correct.

I just got them from Wiki so they could be wrong

[westdog54]

Etihad
Ground dimensions: 159.5m x 128.8m

Homebush
170m x 128m

So slightly longer. Would be interesting to see how our team defence structured up on the longer ground.

This (http://www.afl.com.au/news/2016-08-22/lastminute-talks-for-swans-to-host-scg-finals)on the AFL Website:



LAST-MINUTE negotiations are continuing between the AFL and ANZ Stadium about moving any Sydney Swans home finals this season to the SCG.

At the beginning of the year the Swans came to an agreement with the former Olympic venue to move this season's three scheduled home and away matches to their traditional home.

However, the League has a separate deal with the stadium for finals, which expires after this season.

At the time it was made clear that the Swans' agreement did not extend to finals.

AFL.com.au understands conversations are continuing at the highest levels with a decision one way or the other expected by the end of the week.

ANZ Stadium declined to comment when contacted by AFL.com.au.

All a League spokesperson would say is that the AFL is contracted to play finals at the venue, and nothing has changed.

The top-of-the-table Swans are on track to host two finals in Sydney, including a qualifying final in week one.

The AFL has had a contentious experience with the stadium, which hosted Athletics at the 2000 Olympics.

During its decade and a half hosting AFL games, the arena has been widely criticised for the standard of its playing surface.

It came to a head last year, when Hawthorn forward Jarryd Roughead was injured by exposed bolts on the edge of the playing surface.

The venue is mainly used for rugby league, which takes priority for its finals series, but it's unlikely there would be any scheduling clash this season.

[westdog54]

Etihad: 159.5m x 128.8m
ANZ: 160m x 118m

Very unlikely for all those results to fall our way, but if you think Adelaide, North, Collingwood and Bulldogs can all win you should throw a couple of bucks on a multi, it will pay over $20. ;)

I thought I remembered it being narrower.

I can see us playing the ground well.

That Multi isn't the worst idea of all time.

EDIT: At the moment the multi is paying $20.63 with TAB.

[LostDoggy]

I don't think those ANZ dimensions are correct.

I think this has come up before. It was concluded that the measurements are the total area within the fence, but the boundaries are unusually far in.

[Twodogs]

I reckon I read halfway through the season that Sydney wouldn't be playing finals at Homebush/ANZ/Olympic/whatever.


I thought I remembered it being narrower.

I can see us playing the ground well.

That Multi isn't the worst idea of all time.

EDIT: At the moment the multi is paying $20.63 with TAB.

I'd have a dip but it's not real crash hot odds for an unlikely multi. I reckon you'd get better odds from a bookie for us to finish top four (I know it's just semantics but bookies can be funny people. Make them an original offer and most can't help themselves)


I think this has come up before. It was concluded that the measurements are the total area within the fence, but the boundaries are unusually far in.

Correct.

[bornadog]

Mike Sheahan on AFL 360 thought Sydney finals will be at SCG

[LostDoggy]

Gee, we'll be unlucky to miss a top 4 spot with 16 wins. No team has ever finished lower than 4th with 16 wins in AFL/VFL history, despite a 22 round season being in place since 1970.

Just had a look through some old year end ladders. In 1997, Adelaide made the top 4 with a 13-9 record and went on to be Premiers (StKilda were top after H&A with 15 wins). In 2003, Brisbane finished 3rd with 13 wins and went on to be Premiers.

A 16-6 (percentage 118ish) finish would've seen us finish 1st in 1993, 1997 and 1998, 2nd in 1970, 1976, 1978, 1983, 1986, 1988, 1994, 2003 and 2007 and 3rd or 4th every other year.

[1eyedog]

Would love for the Pies to get over the Hawks, us over Freo. I think North have GWS covered and I would be shocked if the Eagles downed the Crows in Adelaide.

A double chance with the first one at the SCG and the second one in Melbourne would be fair reward for our season.

[Sedat]

Gee, we'll be unlucky to miss a top 4 spot with 16 wins. No team has ever finished lower than 4th with 16 wins in AFL/VFL history, despite a 22 round season being in place since 1970.

Just had a look through some old year end ladders. In 1997, Adelaide made the top 4 with a 13-9 record and went on to be Premiers (StKilda were top after H&A with 15 wins). In 2003, Brisbane finished 3rd with 13 wins and went on to be Premiers.

A 16-6 (percentage 118ish) finish would've seen us finish 1st in 1993, 1997 and 1998, 2nd in 1970, 1976, 1978, 1983, 1986, 1988, 1994, 2003 and 2007 and 3rd or 4th every other year.
I think Collingwood might have finished 4th in 2002 with a 12-10 record - then they lost the GF by a kick and a half.

[The Bulldogs Bite]

Would love for the Pies to get over the Hawks, us over Freo. I think North have GWS covered and I would be shocked if the Eagles downed the Crows in Adelaide.

A double chance with the first one at the SCG and the second one in Melbourne would be fair reward for our season.

Although it'd be nice to have a crack at Sydney, I wonder if it's better we actually go the other route ie. home EF?

I say this because unless we get back 5-6 of our injured players, it's impossible to see us beating Sydney away. If we were to somehow scrape into the Top 4, getting beaten up by the Swans could leave us as sitting ducks in week 2.

Having said that, I still want to finish top four!

[jeemak]

As a club we're a little prone to fluffing our lines week one of finals.

I'd be more content with a top four finish.

[LostDoggy]

As a club we're a little prone to fluffing our lines week one of finals.

I'd be more content with a top four finish.

Agreed. Would also guarantee a home game in the 2nd week of finals. Wouldn't completely concede the first game against Sydney either, we've looked gross underdogs against them up there twice in Bevo's time and found a way both times.

[1eyedog]

Although it'd be nice to have a crack at Sydney, I wonder if it's better we actually go the other route ie. home EF?

I say this because unless we get back 5-6 of our injured players, it's impossible to see us beating Sydney away. If we were to somehow scrape into the Top 4, getting beaten up by the Swans could leave us as sitting ducks in week 2.

Having said that, I still want to finish top four!

I hear you. The group is resilient though. Remember getting beat up by Geelong in the middle of the year at home? Next game we come out and beat Sydney up there.

I'll always take two chances in September. You never know and a win sends us straight to a Prelim.

[bornadog]

I hear you. The group is resilient though. Remember getting beat up by Geelong in the middle of the year at home? Next game we come out and beat Sydney up there.

I'll always take two chances in September. You never know and a win sends us straight to a Prelim.

Come on!!! Crows, Pies (3 or more goals) and North and beat Freo.

[Axe Man]

Come on!!! Crows, Pies (3 or more goals) and North and beat Freo.

Doesn't have to be 3 or more goals, will depend on how much we win by as well.

But definitely take the double chance over an elimination final every day of the week!

[bornadog]

Doesn't have to be 3 or more goals, will depend on how much we win by as well.

But definitely take the double chance over an elimination final every day of the week!

I want to be sure. :D

[Cyberdoggie]

Here's hoping Beveridge has a rumble in the jungle style approach to this year in that we have been quietly sitting back taking the punches and come finals we are about to explode and show our true scoring potential.

Here's hoping anyway.

I would struggle with another qualifying and prelim final loss. Let's hope this is a new era.

[Eastdog]

Here's hoping Beveridge has a rumble in the jungle style approach to this year in that we have been quietly sitting back taking the punches and come finals we are about to explode and show our true scoring potential.

Here's hoping anyway.

I would struggle with another qualifying and prelim final loss. Let's hope this is a new era.

I drink to that. Yep hopefully it will be different this time round. Too many disappointments for our club in previous finals series we have been in.