Champion Data: Collingwood’s midfield ranked the best in the AFL for 2017, Demons the worst

[choconmientay]

I know plenty of peoples would disagree with this. I think Champion Data needs to upgrade their system to the best Super computer available before they can put something like this out :)

So what is your take on this?

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Collingwood’s midfield ranked the best in the AFL for 2017, Demons the worst (http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/more-news/collingwoods-midfield-ranked-the-best-in-the-afl-for-2017-demons-the-worst/news-story/0454702aa6527ac5461a7cabca9192bf)

JAY CLARK, Herald Sun, December 9, 2016 8:00pm


COLLINGWOOD coach Nathan Buckley will be armed with the game’s top-ranked midfield in his make-or-break 2017 season, according to Champion Data.

The AFL’s official-number crunchers have delivered a glowing endorsement of the Magpies’ prime movers using a complex formula to asses each midfielder’s output over the past two years, in comparison to their peers.

Led by superstar ballwinners Scott Pendlebury and Adam Treloar, the Pies have six top-end midfielders who are classified as elite or above average, bolstering claims Collingwood has the centre square setup to break its three-year finals drought next season.

Buckley has already set the scene for a boom-or-bust 2017 campaign, saying late last season that he is ‘on the hook’ unless the Magpies make September next year.

Richmond’s midfield brigade also received a big tick, with the moves to pickup Josh Caddy, from Geelong, and Gold Coast hard nut Dion Prestia in the trade period lifting the Tigers’ 2017 midfield rating up to fourth.

Caddy, who averaged 1.2 goals per game last season, and Shane Edwards are both rated as elite as midfield-forwards.

After a dismal 2016 at Punt Rd, the favourable ratings suggest Richmond has the midfield arsenal to help outmuscle rivals next season, in what also promises to be a critical year for coach Damien Hardwick, after a clean-out of his assistant coaching staff.

But the controversial analysis is less kind on Melbourne.

Despite the big raps on the Demons’ young talent, Champion Data has ranked Melbourne’s midfield-forward outfit last.

It means the AFL’s top and bottom-ranked midfield units will clash when the Magpies and Demons meet in the traditional Queen’s Birthday blockbuster on June 12.

Melbourne has beaten Collingwood in its last three meetings.

According to the rankings which will be released as part of the 2017 Prospectus, Melbourne has six midfielders in the average range, including young star Jack Viney, captain Nathan Jones and ex-Hawthorn recruit Jordan Lewis.

But none are deemed above average or elite, based on their statistical output in the past two campaigns.

Viney is Melbourne’s top-ranked midfielder at No.52 in Champion Data’s rankings, below Pendlebury (6) Treloar (13), Steele Sidebottom (28), Daniel Wells (38), Taylor Adams (41) and Jack Crisp (51).

The analysis factors in the effectiveness, impact and position of players’ possessions in the 2015-16 seasons.

It includes midfielders and midfield forwards, ranked separately.

Premiership favourite Greater Western Sydney is second in the midfield charts, with five players ranked above average for their position.

Elite status is saved for the top 10 per cent of each positional type.

Giants’ stars Dylan Shiel and Callan Ward sit right in the cusp of this group.

Reigning premier Western Bulldogs are third.

The Dogs have three midfielders ranked elite, the most of any club.

They are Marcus Bontempelli, Luke Dahlhaus and Mitch Wallis.

The Dogs’ overall rating is lowered by the ratings given to youngsters Lukas Webb, Bailey Dale and Mitch Honeychurch, who are all factored into the midfield brigade, after playing more than the required 10 games.

In another surprise, St Kilda’s emerging midfield group is ranked seventh, higher than Geelong (eighth), West Coast (ninth), Adelaide (11th) and Hawthorn (12th).

St Kilda’s favourable assessment is based on its breadth of established talent, with eight of their nine classified midfielders considered either above average or average, including top-ranked ballwinners Jack Steven, David Armitage and new recruit Koby Stevens.

Geelong’s rating highlights concerns surrounding its midfield depth.

Superstar duo Patrick Dangerfield and Joel Selwood are considered elite, but its six other rated midfielders are considered average or below average.

North Melbourne is ranked second-last. Onballer Ben Cunnington is the only Roo to receive an above average rating and none are elite.

MIDFIELD MIGHT

CHAMPION DATA ranks the midfields for the 2017 season.

1 Collingwood
2 GWS Giants
3 Western Bulldogs
4 Richmond
5 Sydney
6 Port Adelaide
7 St Kilda
8 Geelong
9 West Coast
10 Fremantle
11 Adelaide
12 Hawthorn
13 Essendon
14 Gold Coast
15 Brisbane Lions
16 Carlton
17 North Melbourne
18 Melbourne

[bulldogtragic]

Proof: Lies. Damn lies. Statistics.

[Greystache]

LOL, Collingwood.

They could have the best midfield, defence, and forward line in the league and they'd still struggle because Buckley as coach would outweigh that.

Do you think Buckley's bought the 27 disc pack of our 2016 so he can plan how he wants Collingwood to play in 2017, or is he still trying to teach his players what he learned from Hawthorn's 2015 DVD pack?

[Bulldog Joe]

Interesting when you look at the players they are rating from their AFL player ratings

Pendlebury 613.1 v Bontempelli 609.4
Treloar 513.5 v Wallis 442.3
Sidebottom 445.3 v Dahlhaus 435.2
Jack Crisp 412.8 v Picken 419.2
T Adams 392 v Macrae 387.9
J De Goey 288.9 v Hunter 372.7
Greenwood 264.8 v Libba 311
D Wells 255.2 v Jong 289.7

That is the top 8 for Collingwood against our top based on the end year rankings.

From that I really can't see how they come up with Collingwood being superior.

Additionally they seem to have Caleb Daniel (312 and ahead of Libba) as a small forward only. McLean and Dunkley are also only rated as forwards.

I think we have them covered.

[Bulldog4life]

Champion Data said we couldn't win the premiership because we did't score enough throughout the year. I take what they say with a grain of salt. Supply the data Champion Data but don't put your own spin on things.

[comrade]

I'm happy to back in any midfield that includes Bontempelli, just quietly.

[hujsh]

It's just the stats. We rotate individuals though the midfield more so their numbers tend to be less consistently high. Using the ranking system we technically have less 'elite' midfielders but if we were to prioritise giving Bont, Libba etc as much midfiled time as possible and never played them forward then their numbers would probably go up and we'd have the statistically best midfield (but likely worse output)

[LostDoggy]

Even more pressure on FIGJAM to get his rabble into the Finals next year!!!
Love It!

[Twodogs]

LOL, Collingwood.

They could have the best midfield, defence, and forward line in the league and they'd still struggle because Buckley as coach would outweigh that.

Do you think Buckley's bought the 27 disc pack of our 2016 so he can plan how he wants Collingwood to play in 2017, or is he still trying to teach his players what he learned from Hawthorn's 2015 DVD pack?

My theory is they have discovered that things at Collingwood work a lot better when Bucks is in a room by himself watching videos.

[boydogs]

Libba 311

There's your problem

[Bulldog Joe]

There's your problem

I wouldn't call the low rating of Libba a problem, but it does explain a lot.

My understanding is that they rank players on their last 40 games over a period of 2 years.

Because Libba missed all of 2015 he is rated solely on the 21 games from 2016. His true rating (and where he would get to with a full season in 2017), will be at least around the Treloar level.

[Twodogs]

Interesting when you look at the players they are rating from their AFL player ratings

Pendlebury 613.1 v Bontempelli 609.4
Treloar 513.5 v Wallis 442.3
Sidebottom 445.3 v Dahlhaus 435.2
Jack Crisp 412.8 v Picken 419.2
T Adams 392 v Macrae 387.9
J De Goey 288.9 v Hunter 372.7
Greenwood 264.8 v Libba 311
D Wells 255.2 v Jong 289.7

That is the top 8 for Collingwood against our top based on the end year rankings.

From that I really can't see how they come up with Collingwood being superior.

Additionally they seem to have Caleb Daniel (312 and ahead of Libba) as a small forward only. McLean and Dunkley are also only rated as forwards.

I think we have them covered.

I don't know. We seem to struggle against them. They overran us in the NAB cup game but I think we were just going through the motions in tHe second half. I think we beat them twice through the year but weren't very impressive in either win.


I'm happy to back in any midfield that includes Bontempelli, just quietly.

Towards the end of the year I knew we'd win the flag because the Bont plays for us. His best is so much better than everyone else's

[1eyedog]

Someone please tell Libba and McCrae they a aren't considered elite at what they do.

[Bulldog4life]

Someone please tell Libba and McCrae they a aren't considered elite at what they do.

Ridiculous when you really think about it.

[Remi Moses]

Champion data said we couldn't win the flag either ;)
Something about not being in the "premiership quantum"

[Mofra]

Champion data said we couldn't win the flag either ;)
Something about not being in the "premiership quantum"
Shit.
That means we have to hand it back, right?

[Topdog]

Based on their criteria it seems spot on. Pies have no depth in that department though while we rotate about 14 players through there.

[LostDoggy]

Someone please tell Libba and McCrae they a aren't considered elite at what they do.

Please keep undervaluing our players, please, when it comes to the crunch, stack the odds against us. As suggested the data is flawed (Libba and Picken win matches yet put in the Greenwood and Crisp bracket) but completely accurate. Collingwood's midfield is the most highly rated by champion data. They also will be up against it to even make finals.

"The Dogs’ overall rating is lowered by the ratings given to youngsters Lukas Webb, Bailey Dale and Mitch Honeychurch, who are all factored into the midfield brigade, after playing more than the required 10 games."

Our future stars are keeping us down...

[bulldogsthru&thru]

Please keep undervaluing our players, please, when it comes to the crunch, stack the odds against us. As suggested the data is flawed (Libba and Picken win matches yet put in the Greenwood and Crisp bracket) but completely accurate. Collingwood's midfield is the most highly rated by champion data. They also will be up against it to even make finals.

"The Dogs’ overall rating is lowered by the ratings given to youngsters Lukas Webb, Bailey Dale and Mitch Honeychurch, who are all factored into the midfield brigade, after playing more than the required 10 games."

Our future stars are keeping us down...

Absolutely love it. Keep undermining and underrating us. It worked so well this year! And it's happening again (not so much from the media) with plenty of people thinking we will be a one and done team. The thinking being we had a perfect 4 weeks but won't be able to reproduce it again. It's just gold.

[Twodogs]

Absolutely love it. Keep undermining and underrating us. It worked so well this year! And it's happening again (not so much from the media) with plenty of people thinking we will be a one and done team. The thinking being we had a perfect 4 weeks but won't be able to reproduce it again. It's just gold.


Yep. It was. A pretty fair 22 weeks that proceeded it.

[soupman]

Someone please tell Libba and McCrae they a aren't considered elite at what they do.

Tbf the more players you list as being "elite" the less it means. For every above average player there needs to be a below average one, and for every elite player there needs to be 9 non-elite players.

[craigsahibee]

LOL, Collingwood.

They could have the best midfield, defence, and forward line in the league and they'd still struggle because Buckley as coach would outweigh that.

Do you think Buckley's bought the 27 disc pack of our 2016 so he can plan how he wants Collingwood to play in 2017, or is he still trying to teach his players what he learned from Hawthorn's 2015 DVD pack?

Still trying to get his players to learn to spell DVD.

[choconmientay]

Champion Data explains why Collingwood’s midfield is the best in the AFL going into season 2017 (http://www.news.com.au/sport/afl/collingwood/champion-data-explains-why-collingwoods-midfield-is-the-best-in-the-afl-going-into-season-2017/news-story/c805511bb6e31e45c5395a6b3771e3fa)

EYEBROWS were raised over the weekend when Champion Data rated Collingwood as the competition’s best midfield going into season 2017.
But the AFL’s official stats gurus have defended their numbers, reiterating that the Magpies midfield group is among the deepest and most talented in the AFL. :confused:
Despite a 12th-placed finish last season, their third straight campaign without finals, Nathan Buckley’s side led the league for midfield player ratings.
The statistics, which are based over a two-year period, take into account all midfield players that have featured in more than 10 games in that time, with a 75 per cent weighting to last season.
And while Collingwood’s spot at the top of the tree might be a surprise to some, key additions over the last couple of years has seen their midfield become one of the most revered in the AFL.
“If you have a look at Collingwood’s midfield, it’s all quality in there,” Champion Data’s Daniel Hoyne told SEN Radio.
“Scott Pendlebury and Adam Treloar are the stars and both rate elite. Then you’ve got Steele Sidebottom, Daniel Wells and Taylor Adams, who all rate above average.
“They actually only have one midfielder rated in the bottom 35 per cent (in the competition), which is quite rare. That’s why they rank number one at the moment.”

Collingwood is followed by Greater Western Sydney and the Western Bulldogs in terms of the competition’s strongest midfield groups.

Yet the gap between the three is slim and, given the age profile of both the Giants and the Bulldogs midfield, Hoyne expects that gap to close by season’s end.
“It has to be said, the gap between Collingwood, GWS and the Bulldogs as the top three is very marginal — there’s hardly anything in it,” Hoyne said.
“If you’re talking depth, I don’t think there’s a midfield in the competition that runs deeper than what the Bulldogs do.
“The only thing that separates them from Collingwood and GWS is that they have those blokes who haven’t played too much footy. They’ve played 10 games, but their rating isn’t too high.”
Sydney’s midfield has long been considered among the best in the AFL, but the loss of Tom Mitchell to Hawthorn during the off-season means the depth isn’t quite there anymore.
“Sydney has the fifth best midfield in the competition,” Hoyne said.
“Luke Parker, Josh Kennedy and Dan Hannebery are the stars of that midfield. Kieren Jack, over the last two years, is now rated average.
“Aside from that, it really does fall away for the Swans. They do have a few players who rated in that below average and poor category, which is the reason why their ranking isn’t in the top three.”

[Twodogs]

Shit.
That means we have to hand it back, right?

Oh yeah, about that. During a triumphal parade through Yarraville the cup got slightly damaged during a dispute over who's turn it was on the pinball machine during a rest period in the front bar of the Railway hotel. Les says it'll be a few days before he can get onto fixing the cup because he's got a big job on at the moment getting the gearbox out of a Land Rover and with Davo in hospital after the pinball incident with the premiership cup it's taking longer than he thought. So if you could give us a week or so that'd be sweet.

[KT31]

Shit.
That means we have to hand it back, right?

Tell 'em they're dreaming!

[Topdog]

Does anyone actually disagree with it after reading the explanation? We have all year praised our multi positional players. In terms of stats that will hurt a ranking. In terms of actually playing, it helps immensly. I have no issues with the ratings given and they even mention that the Bulldogs are the deepest.

[hujsh]

Does anyone actually disagree with it after reading the explanation? We have all year praised our multi positional players. In terms of stats that will hurt a ranking. In terms of actually playing, it helps immensly. I have no issues with the ratings given and they even mention that the Bulldogs are the deepest.
I think it's more giving them the title 'the best midfield'.

[boydogs]

Does anyone actually disagree with it after reading the explanation?

Yep. Libba's ranking is inaccurate

[jeemak]

But the parameters are clearly stated.

I'd like to see the numbers married with team productivity from defined midfield activities to get a better sense of which midfield team is better.

[KT31]

Close thread, we are Premiers so who gives two hoots.

[Topdog]

Yep. Libba's ranking is inaccurate

Really? With the parameter being performance over the past 2 seasons do you honestly believe he is in the best 20? Only played 21 games in that time

[boydogs]

Really? With the parameter being performance over the past 2 seasons do you honestly believe he is in the best 20? Only played 21 games in that time

I disagree with the parameter, Libba is much better than that parameter gives him credit for

Looking to 2017, we expect Libba to perform even better than in 2016 as he continues his recovery from his ACL, but the measurement applied expects him to perform far worse

[Twodogs]

Does anyone actually disagree with it after reading the explanation? We have all year praised our multi positional players. In terms of stats that will hurt a ranking. In terms of actually playing, it helps immensly. I have no issues with the ratings given and they even mention that the Bulldogs are the deepest.

Not really.


But Libba is one of the AFL's elite mids.

[jeemak]

I disagree with the parameter, Libba is much better than that parameter gives him credit for

Looking to 2017, we expect Libba to perform even better than in 2016 as he continues his recovery from his ACL, but the measurement applied expects him to perform far worse

Unfortunately boydogs we can't retrospectively change the parameters outlaid by a capital enterprise when they're releasing their own data and measuring performance against it in their own subjective way.

Life would be grand if we could, of course.

[boydogs]

Unfortunately boydogs we can't retrospectively change the parameters outlaid by a capital enterprise when they're releasing their own data and measuring performance against it in their own subjective way.

Life would be grand if we could, of course.

We don't need to change a thing Jeemak, we're not the ones who are wrong :)