Hawthorn List Manager - Hypothetical

[GVGjr]

I'd like to hear some view on what the Hawks should do over the next 2 years to rebuild the club?

So lets assume that the board and Clarko have appointed you as the List Manager and have made these assumptions and want you to map out a 2 or 3 year plan to get the club competitive again.

- We are on a rebuild but we can't just bottom out. ie no fire sale.
- We need to get back into the draft in 2017 and 2018
- Only a handful of players can't be traded. Roughead Hodge, Rioli, Burton, O'Meara, Mitchell and Frawley are off limits.
- We will be a player in free agency but we will need some additional cap space.
- While a number of players have contracts we are willing to help facilitate a trade if they don't want to go through a rebuild
phase with us. It may mean that we have to pay some of their salaries to help another club trade with us.

List the approach you would take?


To assist with your decision making here is their 2017 playing list

Senior List
Grant Birchall
Kaiden Brand
Luke Breust
Shaun Burgoyne
Ryan Burton
Jonathon Ceglar
Taylor Duryea
James Frawley
Josh Gibson
Jack Gunston
Blake Hardwick
Billy Hartung
Kurt Heatherley
Ricky Henderson
Luke Hodge
Daniel Howe
Will Langford
Mitchell Lewis
Kieran Lovell
Ben McEvoy
Teia Miles
Tom Mitchell
Harry Morrison
Tim O’Brien
Jaeger O’Meara
Jonathan O’Rourke
Marc Pittonet
Paul Puopolo
Cyril Rioli
Jarryd Roughead
Ryan Schoenmakers
Liam Shiels
James Sicily
Isaac Smith
Kade Stewart
Ben Stratton
Ty Vickery
Brendan Whitecross
Dallas Willsmore

Rookies (4)
James Cousins
Jack Fitzpatrick
Oliver Hanrahan
Luke Surman

Category B rookies (2)
Conor Glass
Conor Nash

[comrade]

I expect BT already has a 12 page document put together on just this topic :D

[GVGjr]

I expect BT already has a 12 page document put together on just this topic :D

I'm counting on it :) I thought you might be working some magic as well

[Twodogs]

BT is probably typing it up now.

[FrediKanoute]

Begs the question why the went and signed Mitchell and Vickery. Omeara I get, but the other 2?

[boydogs]

They need to get back into the draft. Not saying their 2016/17 off season trades were fails, but clearly their current side doesn't have another premiership assault left in it and waiting until 2019 for a full complement of picks will see them a non-factor for some time

Trade Frawley to the Bulldogs :)

[Dry Rot]

Stratton could be handy for us.

[Twodogs]

Begs the question why the went and signed Mitchell and Vickery. Omeara I get, but the other 2?

Mitchell is just a plodder isn't he? It's hard to describe what Vickery is. Pretty well off money wise is one description.



Stratton could be handy for us.

A decent man on man defender is something we are going to need when Morris retires.

[Bulldog Joe]

That list is in a world of hurt.

Only Burton looks likely of the younger players.

They have an abundance of premiership players, but most were made to look better with the match winners around them.

With Sam Mitchell and Jordan Lewis gone, they will lose Hodge, Burgoyne and Gibson possibly by the end of this year. Roughead has been throw to the wolves as captain, when he should be given the opportunity to build confidence in his body. He may also be gone with 2 years or less.

Puopolo and Isaac Smith are being exposed as ordinary players when they are needed to show the way. Cyril is way off.

Ben McEvoy looks done and Birchall has struggled before his current injury. Ricky Henderson was unwanted by everyone else and Vickery is just not a quality player.

Schoenmakers, Duryea, Langford and Hartung have had abundant chances and would be fringe at best with other clubs.

They actually need O'Meara to be Gary Ablett and Chris Judd combined just to be competitive and they have sold out of this year's draft to get him.

They really need to get back in the draft, but I don't see anyone on the list who could provide the necessary trade.

Perhaps there is a locked in free agent coming their way at the end of the year.

Their drafting has been poor over the past few years. The Bulldogs have certainly selected better with later picks.

Having looked at that and the options available, I have just handed my resignation to Clarko.

[ledge]

Would like to add Vickery should be in the off limits , they just signed him, no one else will want him he is stuck on their list.
A Liam jones signing.
Like a post before , they have a lot of mediocre players made good by the stars around them . Although for some reason Sicily I think has something that I wouldn't throw out or trade.

[craigsahibee]

They need to get back into the draft. Not saying their 2016/17 off season trades were fails, but clearly their current side doesn't have another premiership assault left in it and waiting until 2019 for a full complement of picks will see them a non-factor for some time

Trade Frawley to the Bulldogs :)

Much overrated footballer. Decision making is atrocious. Frawley is, in my opinion quite simply a spud. The fact that Melbourne received pick 3 as compensation for him is only due to the ridiculous contract he was offered at Hawthorn and in no way a reflection of his ability.

[Bulldog Joe]

Would like to add Vickery should be in the off limits , they just signed him, no one else will want him he is stuck on their list.
A Liam jones signing.
Like a post before , they have a lot of mediocre players made good by the stars around them . Although for some reason Sicily I think has something that I wouldn't throw out or trade.

I'm not sold on Sicily.
He seems purely a marking player and undersized for that. Would probably be sensational in a suburban league.
Doesn't seem prepared to do enough of the hard stuff. A poor man's Jeremy Howe.

[bulldogtragic]

As it happens, this is my PhD topic. What a coincidence.

First thing. Salary cap. They move on Hodge, Burgoyne & possibly Gibson. Now they have a good amount of space.

Second thing. Free agency. Do they use it to bring players in, or use it to get high draft picks? That is, if they bring in talent commensurate to what they lose they get no compo. They have Duryea & Schoenmakers are eligible free agents to lose, and get compo. If I'm Hawthorn, I allow them to sit in the marketplace and get a feel for what the offers will be. I can see some clubs having a fair bit of interest in both. If the offers were in the range of end of second rounders or at their high third round (or better) then I'd let them go, bank the compo and not look at bring in free agents to potentially water down or eliminate compo.

So, I've now got 4 picks around 35-40 now. Without trading. But we need to trade up the order.

First, can we identify an expansion club or academy club that need to bank draft points. Can we package two of the above picks up to get into the 20's? I hope so for Hawthorn. So let's say they can.

Say decent draft picks 25, 40 & 41 - having lost Schoenmakers (replaced by O'Brien) and Duryea (replaced by Hartung).

So now it's time to make a hard call, we are moving on a blue chipper. Stratton would have suitors, but I don't see them gutting their defence with Gibson gone. Isaac Smith would hold interest, but if they're losing silky foot skills, Smith going would compound that problem. Realistically, we need to identify players that are great in a strong side and that without the guns around them, look decidedly average. So looking to the forward line, Gunston jumps off the page. Puopolo & Bruest still impact, Rioli won't go anywhere, so we are back to Gunston.

Gunston signed on for 4 years last year at a mere $650,000 a year, apparently rebuffing $1,000,000 offers. But he didn't kick a goal in the first 3 rounds with the best defenders. If they're in for a lean time with Vickery not making things better up forward, then he's the one. For opposition clubs, he could be a massive game changer. Imagine Gunston in the Adelaide forwardline, or GCS forwardline or even the Dogs forwardline. If Gunston gets to a team where he's third banana, then those teams would be crazy not to go hard at him because he's a proven gun performer in that role/status. So he's my blue chip bait.

So what's he worth, especially in multiple clubs are after him? At minimum a first rounder and an upgrade in the second round. So using rough numbers:

Picks 15, 25, 33 & 42 - for losing Gunston, Schoenmakers, Duryea, Hodge, Gibson, Burgoyne

If they can engineer decent free agency compo, trading up in draft points trades and good trade outcomes with Gunston, then that's trying to make the best of a bad situation of their own making. The benefit is also freeing up close to $1,800,000+ in salaries, plus CBA rises. That could force a re-think of taking free agency compo this year, or they could move to accelerate some contracts and front load others and also bank down the difference in minimum salary cap payments. Then next season they could take the best two or three free agents with a salary cap war chest.

The kicker is whether they can play the longer game, or whether they feel the pressure of Collingwood, Richmond & Carlton to not bottom out for financial reasons and shove in sub standard players and stuff their list and not allow them to come back well. But Clarkson took a list in far worse state over a decade ago and made some very good moves and created a dynasty. He wasn't afraid to move on players and trade out some good players. I suspect what he might want to do will be different to what the board wants of the clubs performance. But they have options, but which ones they take will be interesting to whether they plod along or dip for a while to rise sharply in a few years. It's going to be interesting to see whether the footy department wins or whether the board wins this year as to what they do.

[Mofra]

Begs the question why the went and signed Mitchell and Vickery. Omeara I get, but the other 2?
Mitchell has been their only decent pick up, although they paid a lot.
Vickery is "just ok" but you'd want more than that for a $500k FA signing, JOM I really don't see it. He reminds me of Cooney post-knee problems.

Their biggest problem was selling the farm for two mids who aren't quick (and I include losing Hill for a 2nd rounder in this). Sit on Isaac Smith and where do they get their run from? Hartung is fringe and there is nobody else really.

[Topdog]

holy shit BT that was about 100x better than what I would have said.

[Topdog]

Are my calculations right. Is this what they gave up for Jaeger?

Picks 23, 36, 48, 66, and 70 plus this year's 1st rounder

[Twodogs]

If you were Hawthorn would you consider trading Cyril? Cyril's a cherry on top type of player but there ain't a lot of cake holding him up ATM and it's only getting worse from here on in. For Cyril you're getting top chips for a (admittedly the best) role player who's talents are best to a top team.

Or will Hawthorn back themselves to have a quick bounce back into premiership contention so they won't be entertaining offers for everybody?

[bulldogtragic]

Are my calculations right. Is this what they gave up for Jaeger?

Picks 23, 36, 48, 66, and 70 plus this year's 1st rounder

2016: Pick 23 & 36 (St Kilda), Pick 10 (GCS), Picks 48, 66 & 70 (Carlton) - (Lewis = 48 & 66) (Hill = 23) (Mitchell = 52, 70 & 80)
2017: First Rounder (St Kilda), Second Rounder (GCS) - Incoming GWS Second Rounder

The short answer. A LOT!

If they finish say 14th:

2016: Pick 10, 23, 36 (Losing Hill in the process, while Lewis & Mitchell combine to 2017 second rounder, circa pick 40)
2017: Pick 5 & 23

[bornadog]

Are my calculations right. Is this what they gave up for Jaeger?

Picks 23, 36, 48, 66, and 70 plus this year's 1st rounder

It is more complicated than that. I need to find the details.

Edit: see BT explanation above

[Topdog]

2016: Pick 23 & 36 (St Kilda), Pick 10 (GCS), Picks 48, 66 & 70 (Carlton)
2017: First Rounder (St Kilda), Second Rounder (GCS)

More coming

So from what I saw they gave up 23, 36 and 2017 first rounder for pick 10 and 68 (Saints)
Gave up 48, 66 and 70 for 2017 second rounder (Carlton)

Then they sent what they received to GC

[bulldogtragic]

2016: Pick 23 & 36 (St Kilda), Pick 10 (GCS), Picks 48, 66 & 70 (Carlton) - (Lewis = 48 & 66) (Hill = 23) (Mitchell = 52, 70 & 80)
2017: First Rounder (St Kilda), Second Rounder (GCS) - Incoming GWS Second Rounder

The short answer. A LOT!

If they finish say 14th:

2016: Pick 10, 23, 36 (Losing Hill in the process, while Lewis & Mitchell combine to 2017 second rounder, circa pick 40)
2017: Pick 5 & 23


So from what I saw they gave up 23, 36 and 2017 first rounder for pick 10 and 68 (Saints)
Gave up 48, 66 and 70 for 2017 second rounder (Carlton)

Then they sent what they received to GC

Updated the spread TD.

[Twodogs]

2016: Pick 23 & 36 (St Kilda), Pick 10 (GCS), Picks 48, 66 & 70 (Carlton) - (Lewis = 48 & 66) (Hill = 23) (Mitchell = 52, 70 & 80)
2017: First Rounder (St Kilda), Second Rounder (GCS) - Incoming GWS Second Rounder

The short answer. A LOT!

If they finish say 14th:

2016: Pick 10, 23, 36 (Losing Hill in the process, while Lewis & Mitchell combine to 2017 second rounder, circa pick 40)
2017: Pick 5 & 23

It must have taken quite a session to come up with that little lot.

[bulldogtragic]

It must have taken quite a session to come up with that little lot.

Yep, and in Tom Mitchell too. It might be the wrong thread, but it highlights the risk of trading future picks.

Treloar = Gun = 2015 Pick 7 & 2016 Pick 8

O'Meara = Gun if fit = 2016 Pick 10 & 2017 Pick 5* & Pick 23*

* If Hawthorn finish 14th


That's makes an ageing, injury concerned Gryphone & Pick 6 (in one year) for Tom Boyd look cheap. It's a huge risk/reward this future trading.

[GVGjr]

If you were Hawthorn would you consider trading Cyril? Cyril's a cherry on top type of player but there ain't a lot of cake holding him up ATM and it's only getting worse from here on in. For Cyril you're getting top chips for a (admittedly the best) role player who's talents are best to a top team.



In this hypothetical Rioli is off limits

[Twodogs]

In this hypothetical Rioli is off limits

Fair enough. I'd have him on the table though for a team willing to be as silly with their picks as Hawthorn were last year.

[Remi Moses]

Put simply, they'll need to trade one of their guns I.e Cyril, to get back in the draft .

[Go_Dogs]

It's a tough assignment because you need to be mindful of any further trading having a negative impact on the playing group and the impact it could have on the 'destination club' tag. For these reasons, I'd steer clear of trading players for picks unless a specific player put their hand up and wanted to move on in preference to being part of a 'list refresh'.

The outs will include Burgoyne and Gibson, however I'd look to keep Hodge for another year subject to his form. No idea about the other delistees as I haven't seen enough of Hawthorn, but I'd be looking at 6 changes to the senior list in total. I'd prioritise the coach looking to get games into as many of the 20-23 year old group who have played less than 20 games so we can get a gauge on where they sit and whether they may be a part of the tilt. There's a big group in this age bracket.

I'd be having serious conversations with Fyfe, Martin. Both of those players could be a difference maker to the midfield and enough to turn the tide given there's actually still some quality on the list.

2018 would be the year to hit the draft, so if any players wanted out this year, I'd be looking for opportunities to get in future picks (which for some reason sides appear to be more generous with) and really let the club make a pig of itself inside the first 30 picks. Getting key position players and midfielders (inside-out mids and those who can run) would be the priority through the draft in 2018, as with the picks available in 2017 some developing players and those capable off the flanks would be more attainable (I'm thinking something like our 2014 draft for 2017).

[bulldogtragic]

Not much hypothetical anymore, man the stations, it's a crisis. As on this round they're giving up pick 1, 2 or 3. And the GWS second rounder, factoring in compo and bidding etc, could be near pick 40 as Hawthorn's first selection.

Time to start shopping some Hawthorn guns on the markets quietly through player managers, and well placed whispers. I'm still thinking of Gunston if Adams stays, Morris continues & Collins improves to go with Roberts, Cordy, Wood and last year's talls who may play back (Young).

We are good for defenders if above happens, HBFs even with retirements, inside mids, rucks if Boyd is second pinch hitter next year, mid forwards. I don't see us landing a gun midfielder, small forwards don't seem our thing, so a dynamic proven tall goal kicker with much premiership success sounds good to me - He's got 12.7 in four Grand Finals (nearly 3.2 per GF) & 32.16 in all 13 finals (generating nearly 4 scoring shots a game). Seems ideal for a team in their window who want a proven goal scorer in big finals.

F: Dicko Boyd/Roughy Gunston
HF: Crameri Cloke Stringer/Bonts/Picken/McLean

That's the type of forwardline mix he's been elite in. For us, it also covers for injury, transition when Cloke & Crameri retire and great depth (could've done with him last night - And has a career goal accuracy rate around 65%, again would like that last night and in general). Currently on $650,000 a year, with four years left. We had apparently $800,000 for Hurley for 5 years, built in with re-signing our kids. 4 years at $800,000 is an attractive offer to him, and picks for Hawthorn and salary cap to land either Martin or Fyfe.