Finals positioning

[Sedat]

Forgive me the forward planning but even this early in the season there is now virtually no chance that we can finish top 2 after our close loss on the weekend - GWS will hammer most teams for the rest of the season and claim one of those spots and Adelaide have a soft draw and are smashing teams every week. We are already the equivalent of 3 games off top spot and 2 games off 2nd spot with our lower percentage, and we are not a high percentage 'smash the opposition' type team. All things being equal with regard to injuries, we look like being a 3rd-6th team this season.

My question is where would our best chance of the ultimate September success be in 2017 - finishing 3rd/4th and having a very difficult away game in the QF or finishing 5th/6th and having a home final against a lesser opponent? Either way we will most likely have a tough PF again on the road, and if we finish 3/4 we'll have two hard road trips in 3 weeks if we lose the first final. We can beat anyone anywhere, but the reality of interstate finals is that the vast majority are won by the home team and last year was very much the exception to that. Thoughts?

[aker39]

Finish 3rd/4th - Chance of home PF
Finish 5th/6th - Chance of being eliminated.

The choice is simple.

[bulldogtragic]

I was looking at a ladder projection and it has us in that range. So I'd like to think we can keep our new found intensity and then take 3rd, against GWS in the QF. Spotless holds no fear for us, and another road trip will be fun. Get them and go to a PF at the MCG. Then it's two wins at the MCG which holds no fear for us. It's a matter of doing what we did last year, performing on the big stage when we need to in a completely uncompromising way.

[Mofra]

We're currently 7th - that worked out pretty well for us last year :cool:

[Happy Days]

I'd have no problem coming 3rd and playing the Plastics in week one, especially given the pre-finals bye is back. Want no part of the Crows anywhere, any time.

[bulldogtragic]

I'd have no problem coming 3rd and playing the Plastics in week one, especially given the pre-finals bye is back. Want no part of the Crows anywhere, any time.

If we got them deep into the finals, best case might be if they play Port Adelaide the week before and it's a full on, over the top physical affair and maybe a stupid suspendable act or two with a rabid crowd. They look the genuine article right now.

[bornadog]

Early days but top 4 is the best spot every day of the week. A double chance gives some assurance of going all the way.

[Rocco Jones]

I'm not so sold on us having no chance on catching GWS. They are susceptible to having off games and have a few guys out. Haynes missing for 10 weeks will be a big blow. We have them later in the year at home. Win that and we only need to find one more win than them.

As others have stated, I don't really 'fear' playing them away. Unlike the Crows, the home ground advantage won't be big. I actually think the dimensions of Spotless aren't' too bad for us.

[bulldogsthru&thru]

Jeez, im still worried about making finals!

[Topdog]

Jeez, im still worried about making finals!

Genuinely, which teams from outside the top 8 do you think can barge in?

I really only think the Saints have a chance but Richmond and Port will fall away, Geelong have proven nothing all year.

[Ozza]

I am very confident that we win 9 or 10 games in our last 11 - so I think we are very well placed for top 4.

If we win 17 games - and can't get a top 2 finish, so be it.

[Twodogs]

I'm not so sold on us having no chance on catching GWS. They are susceptible to having off games and have a few guys out. Haynes missing for 10 weeks will be a big blow. We have them later in the year at home. Win that and we only need to find one more win than them.

As others have stated, I don't really 'fear' playing them away. Unlike the Crows, the home ground advantage won't be big. I actually think the dimensions of Spotless aren't' too bad for us.


Me too. GWS still have to hit a trough. They may have started the season like a German band but no side I've ever seen have just barnstormed their way through a season and won the flag without being beaten along the way.

[Eastdog]

Top 4 is the aim for me.

No guarantees will win it again from outside the 4 so a top 4 finish will give us a double chance more secure. Will be interesting when we play the Crows to see how we go.

Our pressure and intensity on Friday night was excellent and if we bring that to the table a lot of teams will find it hard. Would be great to beat the Cats in a few weeks down at Simonds - that would be big scalp.

[Eastdog]

Jeez, im still worried about making finals!

We may have not started of all guns blazing but it is about to begin. 4-2 with our early form is very decent.

[comrade]

If you don't make top 2, finishing 5th is pretty sweet.

Play the worst team in the 8, win that and you likely take on 4th after they've copped a beating against 1st (if it's at the MCG, even better).

Win that and you take on 2nd or 3rd in the prelim, avoiding the minor premiers until grand final day. This works out even better if the top team is interstate based and barely play at the G.

[Eastdog]

We're currently 7th - that worked out pretty well for us last year :cool:

Would be great to copy 2016 into 2017 :) :)

[Sedat]

If you don't make top 2, finishing 5th is pretty sweet.

Play the worst team in the 8, win that and you likely take on 4th after they've copped a beating against 1st (if it's at the MCG, even better).

Win that and you take on 2nd or 3rd in the prelim, avoiding the minor premiers until grand final day. This works out even better if the top team is interstate based and barely play at the G.
That's where I'm leaning towards with this thread. What is our best chance of winning the flag from outside the top 2? It's not about the easiest passage to the PF, or the chance to win a QF interstate as likely outsiders.

FWIW, I'll take any position in the top 8 and back us in from there. But what we did in 2016 was extraordinary and unprecedented in AFEL history - winning 2 interstate finals was a massive achievement, and my overwhelming preference is to only have to travel once this time around. Finishing 3rd and playing an interstate QF is huge risk/reward stuff - say it is GWS and we beat them, it is a massive opportunity to make a GF. But if we lose we would be consigned to a PF at the Adelaide Oval - that would be the stuff of legend to overcome them there.

[aker39]

That's where I'm leaning towards with this thread. What is our best chance of winning the flag from outside the top 2? It's not about the easiest passage to the PF, or the chance to win a QF interstate as likely outsiders.

FWIW, I'll take any position in the top 8 and back us in from there. But what we did in 2016 was extraordinary and unprecedented in AFEL history - winning 2 interstate finals was a massive achievement, and my overwhelming preference is to only have to travel once this time around.

Finish 5th or 6th and there is still a chance of having to travel in weeks 2 & 3, rather than 1 & 3 like in 2016.

[jeemak]

I like the idea of securing a top four birth and throwing everything at week one of the finals to secure a home preliminary final.

Travelling week two and relying on a top four side exiting in straight sets doesn't appeal to me.

[craigsahibee]

A quick check of the calendar says it's the 1st of May.

A lot can happen over the next 4 months.

[The Pie Man]

I've been thinking similar things over the weekend - genuine 8 point game on Friday that shouldn't have been dropped. Glad we played better, bit it makes the Richmond game a touch more important than it needed to be.

As for the thread's question - aim for top 4 and have a real crack in the QF, but don't despair if you have to play a semi. Teams that win the semi week rest will have to figure out how they attack the PF after two games in a month (both lost last year - though GWS were up their eyeballs as we no doubt recall)

Long way to go obviously - stories of injury and form yet to play out - but I can't see us cracking top 2 at this stage either.

[MrMahatma]

I say we go the rest of the season undefeated, finish minor premiers and premiers.

We can beat anyone, anywhere. Let's do it.

[Sedat]

I'm not so sold on us having no chance on catching GWS. They are susceptible to having off games and have a few guys out. Haynes missing for 10 weeks will be a big blow. We have them later in the year at home. Win that and we only need to find one more win than them.

As others have stated, I don't really 'fear' playing them away. Unlike the Crows, the home ground advantage won't be big. I actually think the dimensions of Spotless aren't' too bad for us.
GWS has 4 top 5 ND picks still to come back into the team - Whitfield, Coniglio, Griffen and Deledio, not to mention co-captain Phil Davis as well. You're right in that Haynes will be a structural loss, and Greene for the next 2 weeks is a big loss as well. But I still think they have sufficient talent to cover these losses in the short to medium term - they wouldn't want to lose any more key players through injury though.

Friday night will tell a story - if they dispose of St Kilda easily at Etihad, I reckon you can just about lock them in for top 2.

[comrade]

Griffen is cooked as a top liner and who knows how Deledio comes back from another calf. Coniglio and Whitfield will likely just replace 2 other top 5 picks, so won't make a huge difference to the overall team (structurally).

They're a monty for top 4 but I can see them dropping a few with Haynes out. He's their most important defender, IMO.

[Sedat]

One other issue not yet really taken into account is the impact of the week off before finals. Finish top 4 and win the first final and it is 1 game in approx. 28 days - Geelong and GWS looked hopelessly underdone in the 1st qtr of their respective PF's last year. It's only a small sample size to be fair.

My dream is for us to finish 5th (Adelaide 1st, GWS 2nd, Port 3rd and Geelong 4th), win our first final, knock off Geelong in the SF (preferably Tom Boyd after the siren after having a shit game, to reverse the Brownless curse) en route to a return bout at Spotless against GWS in the PF. After we break their tiny little plastic hearts once again, we then exorcise the ghosts of 1997/8 once and for all against the Crows in the GF, with Stringer to reprise the role of Darren Jarman against a hapless opponent like Hartigan. Not a bad dream at all :D

[comrade]

One other issue not yet really taken into account is the impact of the week off before finals. Finish top 4 and win the first final and it is 1 game in approx. 28 days - Geelong and GWS looked hopelessly underdone in the 1st qtr of their respective PF's last year. It's only a small sample size to be fair.

My dream is the us to finish 5th (Adelaide 1st, GWS 2nd, Port 3rd and Geelong 4th), win our first final, knock off Geelong in the SF en route to a return bout at Spotless against GWS in the PF. After we break their tiny little plastic hearts once again, we then exorcise the ghosts on 1997/8 once and for all against the Crows in the GF.

Haha, perfect and completely plausible. If this happens, I will buy you a million beers.

[Sedat]

Haha, perfect and completely plausible. If this happens, I will buy you a million beers.
Under that scenario, there would be a showdown in the other PF - reckon there might be a bit of feeling in that game as well.

PS - I added some extra mayo to my previous scenario post ;)

[comrade]

Under that scenario, there would be a showdown in the other PF - reckon there might be a bit of feeling in that game as well.

PS - I added some extra mayo to my previous scenario post ;)

Even better! 2016 will never be topped but your scenario goes damn close. Maybe adding a Dale Morris shirt front that irons out Greene (legally) in the opening minute in the GWS prelim, rendering the little gutter snipe useless for the rest of the game elevates it above last year.

[GVGjr]

I don't think we are god enough to pick our position so just get as many wins as you can and worry about the serious stuff when you have to. There are a few teams I respect but we shouldn't fear any of them. Beating West Coast and GWS on their on dung heaps should have instilled plenty of confidence.

I'd be happy enough to finish top 6 and take it from there

[bulldogsthru&thru]

Genuinely, which teams from outside the top 8 do you think can barge in?

I really only think the Saints have a chance but Richmond and Port will fall away, Geelong have proven nothing all year.
It's still early days of course but I believe saints can get in

[comrade]

I just did a ladder predictor and had us finishing 3rd.

[1eyedog]

Well that's it then third it is.

[Twodogs]

I don't think we are god enough to pick our position so just get as many wins as you can and worry about the serious stuff when you have to. There are a few teams I respect but we shouldn't fear any of them. Beating West Coast and GWS on their on dung heaps should have instilled plenty of confidence.

I'd be happy enough to finish top 6 and take it from there


Yep. Let's concentrate on getting into the finals first. We should be able to with the list we have and given we are the reigning premiers the expectations ought to be winning enough games to qualify for the finals. I can't see us repeating our heroics from last year, I can't see anyone ever relating that, so we want to finish with the double chance and back ourselves in to win in week one.

[boydogs]

We will have a much better back half of the year than front half. We have some quality on the injury list but everyone will be back before the bye. Something like 7-4 then 10-1 wouldn't surprise me. Every chance that's a top 2 finish

[The Bulldogs Bite]

Main thing is that we have a healthy list at the right time again.

[bulldogsthru&thru]

Running a ladder predictor:

-There seems to be a clear top 9. So 1 misses out from the current top 8 plus saints
-There seems to be a clear top 2. Adelaide and GWS.
- 3rd to 8th are pretty close. So dropping games you shouldn't can be the difference between 3rd or 8th.

The next 4 weeks are pretty crucial. We need to win at least 2 to give ourselves a shot at top 4.

[Topdog]

Running a ladder predictor:

-There seems to be a clear top 9. So 1 misses out from the current top 8 plus saints
-There seems to be a clear top 2. Adelaide and GWS.
- 3rd to 8th are pretty close. So dropping games you shouldn't can be the difference between 3rd or 8th.

The next 4 weeks are pretty crucial. We need to win at least 2 to give ourselves a shot at top 4.

Far too much respect shown to Richmond and Port here.

[bulldogsthru&thru]

Far too much respect shown to Richmond and Port here.

Well let's see how this weekend goes

[ratsmac]

Bugger 3rd and the rest, I want top spot. Adelaide will get injuries soon, GWS are already starting to get injuries and they'll both drop games. That's where we will take our chance. We won't get any more injuries because we've had our fair share. Our goal kicking will start to click and we'll be unstoppable. Well that's what I want to happen anyhow.

[1eyedog]

Sounds like a good plan to me.

[Twodogs]

Bugger 3rd and the rest, I want top spot. Adelaide will get injuries soon, GWS are already starting to get injuries and they'll both drop games. That's where we will take our chance. We won't get any more injuries because we've had our fair share. Our goal kicking will start to click and we'll be unstoppable. Well that's what I want to happen anyhow.

Well I grant your wish then.

[Sedat]

Umm, premature thread is premature :o

Let's go for top 2

[bornadog]

Umm, premature thread is premature :o

Let's go for top 2
WE have never finished top, and have never won more than 16 games in the Home & Away - that is our next mountain to climb.

[Rocco Jones]

Yeah so hard to tell this season. At the moment, everyone bar the Lions look capable of winning a game and everyone bar maybe the Crows at home, look capable of dropping any game.

[bulldogsthru&thru]

I cannot believe, with how poorly we have played this year, that we could be second if we won that game against GWS. This season will be even closer than last year (which is the real reason we won from 7th last year. Not because of the bye like all the fools think)

[MrMahatma]

I cannot believe, with how poorly we have played this year, that we could be second if we won that game against GWS. This season will be even closer than last year (which is the real reason we won from 7th last year. Not because of the bye like all the fools think)

If you can't use injuries as an excuse for not winning, surely you can't use the bye and the return of injured players as an "excuse that we did win?

[Topdog]

If you can't use injuries as an excuse for not winning, surely you can't use the bye and the return of injured players as an "excuse that we did win?

Let them make all the excuses they like. We are the most underrated premiers ever, I love it.

[always right]

Let them make all the excuses they like. We are the most underrated premiers ever, I love it.

Iove the way it still burns some people, particularly those of the Swans, Saints and Kangaroos persuasion.

[Topdog]

Iove the way it still burns some people, particularly those of the Swans, Saints and Kangaroos persuasion.

Spot on. Even Richmond supporters. The whole "well if the Bulldogs can win it so can we" is just brilliant.

People seem to be neglecting the fact that we have never stopped producing the goods. Our young team aspect is completely ignored, I hear Melbourne supporters be forgiving of their complete lack of bottle because they are "young", yet we are actually younger.

A battle hardened young team that wins the close games (8-2 in games decided by 10 or less) with 1 loss over 30 points in the last 33 games.

[jeemak]

Spot on. Even Richmond supporters. The whole "well if the Bulldogs can win it so can we" is just brilliant.

People seem to be neglecting the fact that we have never stopped producing the goods. Our young team aspect is completely ignored, I hear Melbourne supporters be forgiving of their complete lack of bottle because they are "young", yet we are actually younger.

A battle hardened young team that wins the close games (8-2 in games decided by 10 or less) with 1 loss over 30 points in the last 33 games.

Plus three sudden death finals in a row - two in hostile territory - and a grand final victory makes our record in those 33 games pretty solid.

Or lucky........because of the bye.

[Sedat]

Iove the way it still burns some people, particularly those of the Swans, Saints and Kangaroos persuasion.
And Geelong, in particular their arrogant coach.

[bulldogsthru&thru]

Well Geelong won all their flags because they got lucky with the lenient father-son rule.
They got lucky in 09 because there was no video review.
They got lucky in '11 because of the sub rule
Hawks got lucky in 08 because there was no deliberate rushed behind rule
They got lucky in '13, '14 and '15 because of free agency
Swans got lucky in '05 and '12 because of COLA
Eagles got lucky in '06 because of cocaine
Port got lucky in '04 because of expansion
Lions 3-peat was lucky because of the fitzroy merger

See we can play that game too

Oh and Chris Scott got lucky in '11 because he inherited and fell backwards into a list that could coach itself.

[LostDoggy]

Well Geelong won all their flags because they got lucky with the lenient father-son rule.
They got lucky in 09 because there was no video review.
They got lucky in '11 because of the sub rule
Hawks got lucky in 08 because there was no deliberate rushed behind rule
They got lucky in '13, '14 and '15 because of free agency
Swans got lucky in '05 and '12 because of COLA
Eagles got lucky in '06 because of cocaine
Port got lucky in '04 because of expansion
Lions 3-peat was lucky because of the fitzroy merger

See we can play that game too

Oh and Chris Scott got lucky in '11 because he inherited and fell backwards into a list that could coach itself.

Brilliant!!!

[Flamethrower]

In 2016, we used the new pre finals bye to win it from 7th.

In 2017, we win it from 9th, only making the finals when it is found that Port came home from China with suitcases full of the latest synthetic HGH and are "Bombered" out of the finals.

And in 2018 we go bark to bark to bark from 18th, taking advantage of the new 17-5 fixture. We rest our entire team and finish 0-17, then win our last 5 games to claim the 2nd Wild Card berth. (I can't believe the AFL are actually considering such a system that awards a finals berth to a bottom 6 team). Then we win the flag from 10th, winning all 5 finals.

[boydogs]

everyone bar maybe the Crows at home, look capable of dropping any game.

You were saying? :D

[Danny the snakeman]

Somethings fell our way ladder wise this week, now we really need to beat the cats or things could slip away.