2017 Season - Will we make the top 4?

[Eastdog]

This is a big question.

The loss on Thursday night almost closed the door on a top 4 finish but despite that I'm still hopeful we could considering how close the season is and that will give us the best possible chance. Right now we just want to probably make sure we get in the 8 again as so far our form does not suggest will finish very high but as we know things can change.

Our games

R13 v Demons at Etihad
R14 v Kangaroos at Etihad
R15 v Eagles at Etihad
R16 v Crows at Adelaide Oval
R17 v Blues at the MCG
R18 v Suns in Cairns
R19 v Bombers at Etihad
R20 v Lions at the Gabba
R21 v Giants at Etihad
R22 v Power in Ballarat
R23 v Hawks at Etihad

What do we reckon?

[bulldogtragic]

Nope.

[chef]

Yes. If we can 'click' we are one of the teams to beat. And thats a pretty good run home.

Adams injury could be critical though.

[Rocket Science]

Not a chance.

The 2017 team can't be trusted to roll out its best reliably enough. Injuries, individual and collective form slumps, lack of lineup continuity and improved competition means unless we do the unexpected and defy all that top four chat is purely academic.

It'll require truckloads of character. Something that's been in short supply.

[SlimPickens]

I think we will end up 14-15 wins. That has us in the mix. It's a month of footy after that in which I know our bests can beat anyone. Why not us?

[Dry Rot]

On recent form, My crystal ball says




R13 v Demons at Etihad LOSS
R14 v Kangaroos at Etihad 50/50
R15 v Eagles at Etihad 50/50
R16 v Crows at Adelaide Oval LOSS
R17 v Blues at the MCG WIN
R18 v Suns in Cairns LOSS
R19 v Bombers at Etihad LOSS
R20 v Lions at the Gabba 50/50
R21 v Giants at Etihad LOSS
R22 v Power in Ballarat 50/50
R23 v Hawks at Etihad WIN



So 5 losses, 2 wins, 4 50/50s (split the difference - 2 wins) = only another 4 wins.

10 wins in total if we are lucky.

We miss the finals.

[DOG GOD]

I'm with Dry Rot....I said in a post during our bye if we lost to swans we would miss finals....that home run isn't as easy at what it could look like....we aren't playing well enough to be guaranteed to win any of those.

[bulldogtragic]

Who had all of Port, Richmond & Essendon (and Collingwood or Melbourne come Monday) above us on the ladder by Round 12?

[The Bulldogs Bite]

Nope - think we'll be up against it to make the 8 based off everything I've seen this year.

[Sedat]

On recent form, My crystal ball says



So 5 losses, 2 wins, 4 50/50s (split the difference - 2 wins) = only another 4 wins.

10 wins in total if we are lucky.

We miss the finals.

I have us losing only 2 more games for the season if we play to our capacity - Adelaide and GWS. You're a glass half empty man Rot - doesn't mean you won't be right ;)

After the last 2.5 years under Bevo, I'm happy to forgive them one completely inept and non-competitive performance and back them in to respond strongly. They need to because the season will be shot otherwise, forget about top 4.

[hujsh]

It's kind of silly to say that since our form has nosedived it will continue to stay at that level. On that logic the Cats should have written off their season weeks ago.

The question is do we back this team to improve enough to win the games we should win (eg the next two against Melbourne and North) and the games we should have the advantage in (home games against GWS and Port for example)?

Nothing is guaranteed with this team but I'd be surprised if the season went out without us firing a shot. The noises I'm hearing on the board today don't seem that different to those I heard last year just as our performance was not unprecedented (probably the worst under Bevo but not in a different realm to losses we've suffered previously).

I'm 70-80% sure we make the 8

Top 4 will depend on other teams so 15-30%.

If we do another Sydney I'll start thinking about the offseason and 2018

[Rocco Jones]

I get things aren't great with us but how many reliable sides are there at the moment?

[Remi Moses]

With Rocco , and there's no easy game .
Bring our game and we could get on a roll, but roll out that tripe on Thursday night, and we don't make the eight .

[Eastdog]

I get things aren't great with us but how many reliable sides are there at the moment?

Absolutely as I mentioned in the OP the competition is so even. We have capable players but for whatever reason we aren't showing our full potential and once that can be unleashed again will be good.

[soupman]

As mentioned above this season has been incredibly even and completely unpredictable. For those that have written us off, I'm sure the Geelong forum was saying similar things before our game. We are still a good side capable of very good football, and there is no team I truly fear in the comp this year anyway, we could easily click and play well again, any team (maybe not GWS) could go on a poor run of form.

Realistically I see the following, although it could improve with a good run of form:




R13 v Demons at Etihad 70/30 Probable win
R14 v Kangaroos at Etihad 80/20 Probable Win
R15 v Eagles at Etihad 80/20 Probable Win
R16 v Crows at Adelaide Oval 20/80 Probable Loss
R17 v Blues at the MCG 80/20 Probable Win
R18 v Suns in Cairns 60/40 Probable Win
R19 v Bombers at Etihad 60/40 Probable Win
R20 v Lions at the Gabba 70/30 Probable Win
R21 v Giants at Etihad 40/60 Probable Loss
R22 v Power in Ballarat 50/50 Who knows?
R23 v Hawks at Etihad 70/30 Probable Win

It's a weird year so I would not be surprised at all to see 2/3 upsets in the above, and the odds are not comfortably in our favour for anything, but they are our rough chances as I see it on a case by case basis.

If you extrapolate the odds I've given for the above I have us winning 6/7 games for the remainder of the season. That would put us on 12/13 wins.

[jeemak]

I think the apprehension is born from understanding we're not putting anything near our best on the table to date, but we also need to take into account our losing games have been at Subiaco, Manuka, Subiaco, Geelong and the SCG. How many of these in a season would we ever expect to win?

Yes, I understand we've not been any good for extended periods in most games, and only in one or two of those above have we contended properly. But, we're as good as any chance to beat Melbourne, North and WCE at Docklands, and given how silly this season is we're good enough to beat Adelaide at Adelaide.

Conversely, we're chance to be rolled in a few of them too. But, look at our run home and what's genuinely fearful for us? There's not much.

With the awesome form of the finals lingering in our minds we seem like a rabble right now. A little common sense selection wise, and some attention to detail from our players and we'll surprise ourselves with how competitive we can be.

We won't finish any lower than 5th or 6th.

[boydogs]

We were completely uncompetitive against Sydney, but it was the first time for the year. We need to bounce back and quick, but I haven't given up yet

[S Coast Simon]

I'm a bit of an optimist
Beat the demons. Get a little confidence
beat the Roos. Start to feel a bit better about ourselves
beat the eagles at home. Good place to meet them
after three wins feel really good going to Adelaide and hit them hard. If we somehow manage to win these four then the next four are not so bad.
So I'm saying season well and truely alive with seven from the next eight a chance.
The crows and Essendon after the trip up north are the hardest we have in the next eight rounds. This could rescue our season the next four weeks

[merantau]

Best case for me is another 8 wins, more likely 7. Scrape into the 8 and then cause some havoc.

[bulldogsthru&thru]

Unless something drastically changes we miss finals. And it won't even be close. Brisbane and Gold Coast aren't even certainties at this stage. I mean the lions were belting us at Etihad not too long ago. The thing for me is we've played 11 games of football and only 2 of them have looked any good. I've been waiting half a season for us to show up and give a complete effort. I just don't think it'll come until it's too late

[GVGjr]

We were a strong top 4 chance at the start of the season and while we look somewhat ordinary the next 3 weeks tells the story.

I can't see us missing the finals and won't be disappointed if we finish in the top 6.

If we can lift the intensity and get our selections right we can be right back in this. It all starts for us next week

[bulldogsthru&thru]

It's truly between the ears for us. So if we do manage to make the finals then look out. Even from 8th

[Insufficient Intent]

I'm happy to be glass half full for at least the next few games. Give everyone at the club, not only players, a chance to try and remedy the appalling lapses of judgement, endeavour and application that made up the collective disaster of last Thursday. There's no time to dwell on blame distribution for too long; next game has got to take priority.
Top four finish looks remote, but it's been a year of surprise results. Maybe the cards can fall our way.
Go Dogs, we can do it.

[Flamethrower]

No, and it doesn't matter - we are the only team who will make the finals who will have no doubt that we can win the premiership. Every other team have skeletons in the closet.

[merantau]

I'd like to be a fly on the wall around the Club this week. I'd be hoping to hear some strong inspirational messages that emphasize what we do best - get numbers to every contest, spread and run. That together with the right selections will get us back on track. As many have pointed out, this is a very even year. We have not shown our best form at all in the first half of the year. I'm hoping we are going to see it in the second half.

[Rocco Jones]

I get we haven't been great, but which teams look really strong? Lets have a look.

GWS- Lock them in. Stand out side.
Crows- Lots of doubts over their mid depth. Reliant on home games and belting crap.
Cats- Elite in Geelong but have question marks still. Before their home streak they looked poor.
Tigers- Self explained.
Port- Flat track bullies
Essendon- I am actually impressed with their best but very consistent.
Eagles- Flat track bullies.
Freo- When they are down, they are pathetic.
Dees- Very inconsistent
Pies- Great mid but obvious issues.

Basically only side that can really look ahead with confidence is GWS. If the Cats can win on the road against the Eagles next up, they join them.

[soupman]

I get we haven't been great, but which teams look really strong? Lets have a look.

GWS- Lock them in. Stand out side.
Crows- Lots of doubts over their mid depth. Reliant on home games and belting crap.
Cats- Elite in Geelong but have question marks still. Before their home streak they looked poor.
Tigers- Self explained.
Port- Flat track bullies
Essendon- I am actually impressed with their best but very consistent.
Eagles- Flat track bullies.
Freo- When they are down, they are pathetic.
Dees- Very inconsistent
Pies- Great mid but obvious issues.

Basically only side that can really look ahead with confidence is GWS. If the Cats can win on the road against the Eagles next up, they join them.

Agree completely. Our inconsistent and frustrating formline is the norm in the comp this year, so while we should be concerned, we shouldn't be too pessimistic.

[always right]

Unfortunately the loss of Adams couldn't have come at a worse time. We are left with key defenders who only have the ability to square a contest rather than win one. Need a massive step-up from Cordy.

Unless our midfield finds form, I think our defence will struggle. It all comes down to Bont, Hunter and Libba to find their best again.

[westdog54]

On recent form, My crystal ball says



So 5 losses, 2 wins, 4 50/50s (split the difference - 2 wins) = only another 4 wins.

10 wins in total if we are lucky.

We miss the finals.

Wow. Really?

Lets have a look at this a little less hysterically, shall we?



Our games

R13 v Demons at Etihad
R14 v Kangaroos at Etihad
R15 v Eagles at Etihad
R16 v Crows at Adelaide Oval
R17 v Blues at the MCG
R18 v Suns in Cairns
R19 v Bombers at Etihad
R20 v Lions at the Gabba
R21 v Giants at Etihad
R22 v Power in Ballarat
R23 v Hawks at Etihad

What do we reckon?

Melbourne at Etihad. They've always played Etihad terribly and their form generally has ranged somewhere between erratic and indifferent. Put aside an upset against Adelaide and they've barely fired a shot this year. We'll win.
Kangaroos at Etihad. *!*!*!*! me, they're sitting 15th and have won 4 games, only one of which has been anywhere near convincing, and yet we're 50/50 to beat them? Please.
Eagles at Etihad: They've lost 3 on the trot, namely a belting at Etihad courtesy of Essendon, losing at their 'fortress', and being rolled by Gold Coast of all teams. They always travel poorly. We should win.
Crows in Adelaide: Not many have gotten near them there, I'll concede that one.
Blues at the MCG: I'm glad you have us at least winning this one.
Suns in Cairns: We are their bitches. We'll win.
Bombers at Etihad: I'll acknowledge that they are in good form but having it as a straight out loss is laughable. 50/50.
Lions at the Gabba: 50/50 against the worst team in the comp? Wow.
Giants at Etihad: 50/50 at worst. We kicked ourselves out of our last contest and this one will be on our turf.
Power in Ballarat: Did you not see last night? They're probably travelling worse than we are.
Hawks at Etihad: Again, I'm glad you have us winning this. The Hawks players are worse than their fans at turning up to Etihad.

Running on your rule of splitting the 50/50s (I'll even round down to be conservative) that's a minimum of 7 wins out of 11 that we're fully capable of. A far cry from four.

We're awesome at turning on our team after a couple of lean weeks.

Get some perspective.

[Dry Rot]

Wow. Really?

Lets have a look at this a little less hysterically, shall we?

Get some perspective.

I've seen most of our games on TV and the last one live. We have been pretty poor and the form line (aside from the Saints going) is going down.

All season, we've had no forward line and a mostly well beaten mid field.




We're awesome at turning on our team after a couple of lean weeks.



Hardly. We've been pretty shithouse for most of this season.

[westdog54]

I've seen most of our games on TV and the last one live. We have been pretty poor and the form line (aside from the Saints going) is going down.

All season, we've had no forward line and a mostly well beaten mid field.



Hardly. We've been pretty shithouse for most of this season.

We've won more than we've lost, and only two of the losses was above 20 points.

You're being hysterical.

[Bulldog4life]

I am a half full type of guy. Life is more fun. I wouldn't be writing us off even for the top 4 just. It is such an even season. We just need a run of wins to get our confidence going. We are capable. We have the players. Next four weeks so important. C'mon doggies.

[Eastdog]

I am a half full type of guy. Life is more fun. I wouldn't be writing us off even for the top 4 just. It is such an even season. We just need a run of wins to get our confidence going. We are capable. We have the players. Next four weeks so important. C'mon doggies.

That's the spirit B4L.

[bornadog]

I am a half full type of guy. Life is more fun. I wouldn't be writing us off even for the top 4 just. It is such an even season. We just need a run of wins to get our confidence going. We are capable. We have the players. Next four weeks so important. C'mon doggies.

I am with you all the way.

[Eastdog]

Cede Nullis what's in my signature.

[bulldogtragic]

If a stranger gave me a choice of being given $20 cash, or given $100 to only bet on the Dogs finishing top four with any winnings to keep, I'd keep the $20 to buy up signed copies of Paul Likakis 'Boom Boom Boom' LP's. A lot of posts (which is fine, good for y'all) have too many predications about 'if' certain things happen. There's just way too many if's to finish top 4. We should make the finals, but top 4 needs too many if's.

[soupman]

GWS game today is an excellent example of how nothing this year is predictable.

[chef]

If a stranger gave me a choice of being given $20 cash, or given $100 to only bet on the Dogs finishing top four with any winnings to keep, I'd keep the $20 to buy up signed copies of Paul Likakis 'Boom Boom Boom' LP's. A lot of posts (which is fine, good for y'all) have too many predications about 'if' certain things happen. There's just way too many if's to finish top 4. We should make the finals, but top 4 needs too many if's.

We are only a game off forth and our challengers for that spot are Port, Richmond, WCE and the Bombers. Have some faith mate.

[bulldogtragic]

We are only a game off forth and our challengers for that spot are Port, Richmond, WCE and the Bombers. Have some faith mate.

Chef, my guess is we finish around 5th or maybe even 6th. So yes, maths says we 'can' finish top 4. The question of this thread is 'will' we make top 4. Since I think 5th or 6th, my answer is no we 'will not'. So a spot or two different. I don't think my faith is relevant.

[chef]

Chef, my guess is we finish around 5th or maybe even 6th. So yes, maths says we 'can' finish top 4. The question of this thread is 'will' we make top 4. Since I think 5th or 6th, my answer is no we 'will not'. So a spot or two different. I don't think my faith is relevant.

Which of those 4 do you think will finish top 4?

[bulldogtragic]

Which of those 4 do you think will finish top 4?

They all could, using the same maths that says we can or can not finish top four too. Richmond are a game ahead right now, Port, Essendon, WCE & likely Melbourne will all be equal with us. Richmond, Melbourne & Port have a big to huge chunk of percentage on us. So to finish 4th, in the next 11 games, we need to jump Richmond two games, and jump one game ahead (owing to percentage) of Essendon, Port, Melbourne & WCE. Not doing that to just one of those 5 teams means we likely don't finish top 4. All those teams finished in the middle or bottom groups last year which gets them arguably better draws (according to the theory).

We are one of five teams, probably going for one spot. I'm not prepared to say we 'will' finish top 4. Just because it's my team and I think the others are shit isn't a sound justification, especially when one has a game on us and others have percentage advantages too. To reiterate we 'can', but I remain unconvinced that we 'will' for the reasons above and our patchy form and injury concerns. Faith or no faith.

[bornadog]

If a stranger gave me a choice of being given $20 cash, or given $100 to only bet on the Dogs finishing top four with any winnings to keep, I'd keep the $20 to buy up signed copies of Paul Likakis 'Boom Boom Boom' LP's. A lot of posts (which is fine, good for y'all) have too many predications about 'if' certain things happen. There's just way too many if's to finish top 4. We should make the finals, but top 4 needs too many if's.

Bookmarked. :D

[bulldogtragic]

Bookmarked. :D

You like Paul Likakis too. Cool man.

[Eastdog]

GWS game today is an excellent example of how nothing this year is predictable.

So true soupaman. That means we could still win it.

[ratsmac]

Obviously our destiny is in our own hands. We just have to pick ourselves up and win the games that we should and hopefully pinch an upset a long the way from here on in.

The worrying thing for me is that because of our form this year we have lost any of the intimidating factor that we earned from being the current premiers. Teams see us as gettable. I reckon hawthorn won at least 5 games that they shouldn't have last year because of their intimidating stature. And to be honest at times this year so far we have played like being the premiers is enough to get the win.

The Sydney loss, moreso in the manner that we lost was a rude awakening that could (hope) kick us into gear. But In saying that I think I said this after the Freo loss as well. C'mon Doggied lift!!

Top 4 I think just slipped through our fingers last Thursday to be honest. But hey we want 7th place anyway.

[Dry Rot]

GWS game today is an excellent example of how nothing this year is predictable.

I need to change my call on the Carlton game to 50/50.

[westdog54]

I need to change my call on the Carlton game to 50/50.

What about the GWS game at Etihad while you're at it? You should be changing that by the same logic, shouldn't you?

[Dry Rot]

What about the GWS game at Etihad while you're at it? You should be changing that by the same logic, shouldn't you?

Nah, either side would cane the rubbish side I watched at the SCG.

[bornadog]

Nah, either side would cane the rubbish side I watched at the SCG.

We won't lose at Etihad this season.

[Topdog]

Nah, either side would cane the rubbish side I watched at the SCG.

Oh so that will be the performance we put up every week. It's been 4 days, time to start letting some logic back in and some emotion out.

[Topdog]

1 game off 4th and 7 of our next 11 in Melbourne?

Honestly no reason that we couldn't win all our Etihad games, add in the game in Ballarat and we could easily be in the top 4

[The Adelaide Connection]

I usually think Brad Scott is a pompous crybaby, but every now and then he drops something that could be passed off as a pearl of wisdom. One such occasion was a few weeks ago when he said:

"It's not so much who you play, more when you play them."

He was talking about the obvious big things like injuries and suspensions and also things like the amount of time teams between games, how taxing the previous game was, illness (even relatively minor things like the flu), etc. but he was also just talking about formlines.

If you look at most of the sides over the 11 rounds you can hardly recognise them from one string of performances to the next. Some of the strongest examples of this are:
Carlton: were insipid against Port and I was certain they would cop 100 point floggings and get the spoon, yet over the last month they have become super competitive and today knocked off GWS.
Sydney: You would be pissed if you played Sydney once for the year and it was from Round 11 onwards.
Freo: Have been atrocious in the past few weeks but playing good footy and very hard to beat in the 6 weeks prior to that.
Geelong: All types of garbage up until the last three weeks (conveniently timing their good form for us).
Adelaide: Had a month where they completely went off the boil. Don't let the big win against Brisbane fool you either, they were awful that day and the Brisbane of this round (or the one that played us) would have been 6 goals up at quarter time.
Brisbane: See above. A young team with little confidence and adapting to a new style, will probably drop their bundle again as they tire in the back end of the year.

On top of all of this there are teams like West Coast who are Jekyll and Hyde home and away (who some teams only play once in Perth and others only play once away from Perth). On a tangent, I think it is time the painfully favourable umpiring adjudications they get at home is looked at (I don't think there is a conspiracy, but umpires are human and their non-bipartisan crowds certainly play a role). I think it goes a long way to setting up their wins when the games are in the balance and without it elsewhere they struggle.

I'd like to hope we are a team that come the end of the season people look at and say "Gee, would have loved to get them before they hit outrageous form in round 12". Fingers crossed.

[chef]

Nah, either side would cane the rubbish side I watched at the SCG.

By that same token the team the put up that rubbish performance against Geelong last season shouldnt have won the flag either.

Gee a few in here have been rattled.

[westdog54]

Nah, either side would cane the rubbish side I watched at the SCG.

Hysterical.

[ratsmac]

By that same token the team the put up that rubbish performance against Geelong last season shouldnt have won the flag either.

Gee a few in here have been rattled.

It's true isn't it. We wear our hearts on our sleeve and have been long suffering Footscray Western Bulldog supporters who have seen little success. So it's understandable that some of us might be jumping at shadows at the first sign of bad form coming off the ultimate glory.

In comparison to last year there have been some similarities, mainly injuries. How's Adam's getting the same injury against the same team in the same quarter at the same ground in almost the same round (being first game after the bye)as last year. Our early form last year was better but with some disappointing results as well. We finished up alright last year I suppose.

[Dry Rot]

Hysterical.

We'll revisit this thread, and either one of us will be proven to be hysterical or the other will be proven to be a rude fool.

Let the second half of the season begin...

[Remi Moses]

I think you're being a little hysterical dry , I think one of our best efforts was the GWS game .
Chris Scott said it right ( he occasionally does) that it's not who you play it's when you play them , added in with the unfair fixturing.
Last Thursday we were uncompetitive and we need to address it urgently .

[Eastdog]

We need all our members to come out to this game on Sunday and make a lot of noise. Would be great to get somewhere between 35K-40K.

[hujsh]

We'll revisit this thread, and either one of us will be proven to be hysterical or the other will be proven to be a rude fool.

Let the second half of the season begin...

Whatever happens the rest of the year i'd still say your reaction has been over the top. It may become more appropriate if we were to lose the next 2 or 3 but will still be 2 or 3 weeks early.

[Eastdog]

Whatever happens the rest of the year i'd still say your reaction has been over the top. It may become more appropriate if we were to lose the next 2 or 3 but will still be 2 or 3 weeks early.

We are 6-5 in the pack in a lot of other teams would if liked to be higher but that's the reality. If we had under 5 wins then that's when we may start to worry but our win loss ratio is +.

[bulldogsthru&thru]

I don't think it's hysterical at all. It's simply stating how things have been to date. Sure we could turn it all around and we all know we're capable of much better. But the season to date has been poor. And assuming our performances over our first 11 games continues, we will struggle to make the eight.

[Dry Rot]

I don't think it's hysterical at all. It's simply stating how things have been to date. Sure we could turn it all around and we all know we're capable of much better. But the season to date has been poor. And assuming our performances over our first 11 games continues, we will struggle to make the eight.

A well reasoned post based on form to date.

[Topdog]

I don't think it's hysterical at all. It's simply stating how things have been to date. Sure we could turn it all around and we all know we're capable of much better. But the season to date has been poor. And assuming our performances over our first 11 games continues, we will struggle to make the eight.

So if we continue the way we have logically we would be 12 wins at seasons end after winning another 6 games.

DR initially had us winning 4 more for the rest of the season and then pegged it back to 3.

We've been interstate 4 times and played in Geelong to start the season and are 5-0 at Etihad.

We travel interstate 3 more times and play at Etihad 6 more times.

I'd say overly emotional sums it up to be honest.

[Dry Rot]

We are 5-0 at Etihad.



Swans when they were crap

North narrowly

Lions (hammered us in the first half)

Richmond narrowly

Saints

Great record.

[hujsh]

Fair enough. Someone tell the club to not bother turning up Sunday. Season's over. May as well not bother and just get the best draft picks.:p

[westdog54]

Swans when they were crap

North narrowly

Lions (hammered us in the first half)

Richmond narrowly

Saints

Great record.

Richmond have been playing well all year. Three only game they've lost by more than a goal all year was Adelaide in Adelaide.

Saying "Sydney when they were crap" undermines your own argument.

Brisbane only 'smashed us in the first half' because of poor goalkicking.

Some very selective history being used.

[bulldogsthru&thru]

So if we continue the way we have logically we would be 12 wins at seasons end after winning another 6 games.

DR initially had us winning 4 more for the rest of the season and then pegged it back to 3.

We've been interstate 4 times and played in Geelong to start the season and are 5-0 at Etihad.

We travel interstate 3 more times and play at Etihad 6 more times.

I'd say overly emotional sums it up to be honest.

Out of those 6 wins, we were lucky to get away with 3 of them. Those being North, Richmond and Brisbane. We allowed, at home, the worst side (by a mile) in the competition to get 6 goals in front.

We can't continue to pick and chose when we want to have a crack. I've been waiting 11 weeks for us to snap out of it and it hasn't happened so i have lost a little bit of faith that it will indeed happen. I love the rest of the forum's optimism and hope you're all correct. I know full well what this team is capable of and we're currently nowhere near it which is frustrating. I can handle losses, but the one thing that frustrates me to no end is a lack of effort and application.

I'll be hoping for a 12th straight week we'll snap out of our funk. I just hope i'm not still waiting in another 10 weeks.

[bulldogsthru&thru]

Richmond have been playing well all year. Three only game they've lost by more than a goal all year was Adelaide in Adelaide.

Saying "Sydney when they were crap" undermines your own argument.

Brisbane only 'smashed us in the first half' because of poor goalkicking.

Some very selective history being used.

The first game against sydney was one of our best all year (2nd to the GWS performance). In saying that i think our form was patchy in that game.

Yes brisbane only smashed us in the first half because of poor goalkicking. But even if we kicked accurately they still would have been in front. We were playing lazy, unaccountable football in the first half. I sat there watching the ball kicked over our heads into an empty 50 at least half a dozen times.

Richmond didn't play a great game against us. They're no pushovers but the way we let them get a 5 goal lead was pathetic. Again, no effort or accountability.

The sydney loss was a lot of dam wall bursting from all the gaping holes we have gotten away with over the first 10 weeks. Most of those gaping holes being effort and application. We're in a funk and there is no doubt about it. But its not just a one week funk. Its pretty much an 11 week funk. That's what is so concerning. It gets to a point where 11 weeks of funk is no longer a funk. It's the norm.

[westdog54]

Yes brisbane only smashed us in the first half because of poor goalkicking. But even if we kicked accurately they still would have been in front. We were playing lazy, unaccountable football in the first half. I sat there watching the ball kicked over our heads into an empty 50 at least half a dozen times.

Richmond didn't play a great game against us. They're no pushovers but the way we let them get a 5 goal lead was pathetic. Again, no effort or accountability.

The sydney loss was a lot of dam wall bursting from all the gaping holes we have gotten away with over the first 10 weeks. Most of those gaping holes being effort and application. We're in a funk and there is no doubt about it. But its not just a one week funk. Its pretty much an 11 week funk. That's what is so concerning. It gets to a point where 11 weeks of funk is no longer a funk. It's the norm.

We had 5.13 to half time. Brisbane had 12.3. Not sure where your 'they still would have been in front ' logic falls.

Did Richmond play badly or did we play well?

In all bar the final against West Coast we had patches where we were 'in a funk' and had to fight our way out.

The Sydney game was our worst effort in years, there's no doubt of that. If you and DR want to see it as the rule rather than the exception I guess I can't stop you.

[bulldogsthru&thru]

We had 5.13 to half time. Brisbane had 12.3. Not sure where your 'they still would have been in front ' logic falls.

Did Richmond play badly or did we play well?

In all bar the final against West Coast we had patches where we were 'in a funk' and had to fight our way out.

The Sydney game was our worst effort in years, there's no doubt of that. If you and DR want to see it as the rule rather than the exception I guess I can't stop you.

I wasn't assuming we would kick 13.5 or 12.6 had we kicked accurately. Probably more like 8.10 which falls more in-line with our average accuracy.

We played well in the 2nd half. I don't think Richmond were that great though. But all this is where the problem lies. Even within games our form is all over the place. And it comes down to attitude and effort. There's a reason why we have given up so many leads only to come back. It's because we are a little complacent and the effort and desire isn't really there. Then when the lead blows out, our back are to the wall and that sparks us. Unfortunately you just can't keep doing that week after week. Every week channel 7 show our 'deficits faced'. It's just getting ridiculous now. It's almost every week we've given up a large deficit. I'm not suggesting the sydney game will be the norm. Not at all. Im going off our last 11 games. And that tells me it will be touch and go as to if we make the 8

[westdog54]

Our form was "all over the place" in most games last year as well and we won the flag.

[bulldogsthru&thru]

Our form was "all over the place" in most games last year as well and we won the flag.

I don't agree. Effort from the players was never a question. I don't remember giving up so many deficits either.

[Bulldog4life]

Champion Data have got us 37% to make top 4 and 86% to make top 8. I can't seem to copy and paste

Their twitter link is:

https://twitter.com/championdata

[westdog54]

I don't agree. Effort from the players was never a question. I don't remember giving up so many deficits either.
We gave up deficits against Port, Collingwood, Richmond, Hawthorn ( once during the season and again in the final) and turned around all bar one.

And there were at least for other games (Geelong, StKilda, GWS and Freo) where effort was questionable.

And yet we still won the flag.

[bornadog]

We gave up deficits against Port, Collingwood, Richmond, Hawthorn ( once during the season and again in the final) and turned around all bar one.

And there were at least for other games (Geelong, StKilda, GWS and Freo) where effort was questionable.

And yet we still won the flag.

Besides the finals, we had some very ugly wins last year.

eg: The Carlton game. I went along with a couple of WOOFERS and even though it looked like we smashed them, we walked out thinking, funny the scoreboard says we have won by lots yet it feels like a 10 point game.


Swans when they were crap

North narrowly

Lions (hammered us in the first half)

Richmond narrowly

Saints

Great record.

The important thing is winning and I don't care how we win or how we played, a win is a win.

[Topdog]

Swans when they were crap

North narrowly

Lions (hammered us in the first half)

Richmond narrowly

Saints

Great record.

I dont get it. How does this change that they were wins?

How does it mean that a game vs the Eagles at Etihad with no Kennedy is a 50/50 game.

Why would a game vs Essendon be a loss instead of a 50/50?

Giants have played 2 games this year at Etihad and lost both (one against the Saints who we beat), yet you have that listed as a loss, again why not 50/50?

Gold Coast game is an outright loss.

Melbourne who have probably been worse than us in terms of patchiness, again an outright loss?

You seem to basically have us rated as a bottom 2 side and said every other team is a premiership favourite.

[Ozza]

Think it will come right down to the wire for top 4. I think we will win 13-15 matches - 15 will get you in this year, 14 makes it borderline.

We will get our opportunities to make it harder for Melbourne, Essendon, West Coast and Port to make top 4. We already won our "potential 8 point game" v Richmond.

I'm not going to be losing faith in this group any time soon. A week is a long time in footy.

[hujsh]

I'm 70-80% sure we make the 8

Top 4 will depend on other teams so 15-30%.


Champion Data have got us 37% to make top 4 and 86% to make top 8. I can't seem to copy and paste

Their twitter link is:

https://twitter.com/championdata

Geez this statistician gig is easy

[KT31]

Haven't lost complete faith yet but can only see us scraping into the eight and not a top four spot.

[bulldogsthru&thru]

Looks a bit interesting that DryRot was labelled hysterical last week. Today's game has proven he was spot on. No joy in being proven right but just goes to show the hysterical calls were harsh. We're a bottom 4 side this year.

[westdog54]

What I saw tonight wasn't lack of effort. It was a lack of composure, leadership and execution.

[bulldogtragic]

What I saw tonight wasn't lack of effort. It was a lack of composure, leadership and execution.

And skill. Don't forget skill.

[bulldogsthru&thru]

There's effort in that. We are outnumbered all over the ground and beaten in contested makes continuously. We're in a lot of strife. This might be the biggest test of Bevos career.

[westdog54]

Part of the outnumbering was that Melbourne knew (not believed, knew) we were about to cough up the ball and had already started to spread in anticipation.

It was a calculated risk and more often than not it came off.

There's a question of tactics I've come out of that game with, but it deserves its own thread.

I'll have more on that once the kids are home and in bed.

[Dry Rot]

What I saw tonight wasn't lack of effort. It was a lack of composure, leadership and execution.

Great.

That should get us into the finals. We have no worries.

[Eastdog]

Need to get some confidence back desperately and get a run of wins. Top 4 now seems pretty much of out of reach at the moment and even making the top 8 this year will be a challenge. The good thing is that we are 6-6 and not say 4-8 then we would really be in big strife. Our percentage took a battering today which doesn't help being such a close season so need some big wins to get that back up.

[MrMahatma]

I think we've dug too much of a hole to contend this year. The optimist in me looks at the math and says we can turn it around, but would I bet on it? No way. Fwd line still a rabble. Defence now undermanned. Leadership waning. No players have really improved on last season. The competition is passing us by in 2017.

[SonofScray]

Feel like we are shot. No top 4 and now the margin for error to make the Top 8 feels very slim. The team has lost my trust with their poor goal conversion, slow starts, inconsistent intensity and horrific defence at the centre bounce. Hung on OK early in the year in the face of these things but the arse has just dropped out of our season.

[1eyedog]

And skill. Don't forget skill.

And belief.

[westdog54]

Great.

That should get us into the finals. We have no worries.

DR, I owe you an apology. I seriously didn't think it had become so bad.

What makes me stick with my view that we can still make the 8 is that so many are nowhere near what should be expected in terms of output.

The issues I saw yesterday are entirely fixable in a short space of time.

[bulldogsthru&thru]

DR, I owe you an apology. I seriously didn't think it had become so bad.

What makes me stick with my view that we can still make the 8 is that so many are nowhere near what should be expected in terms of output.

The issues I saw yesterday are entirely fixable in a short space of time.

That they are. But it's been 12 weeks and i haven't seen any improvement. In fact its gotten worse

[bornadog]

DR, I owe you an apology.

It is easy to whinge, but we need solutions and just potting the club and players and being a negative Nellie doesn't help anyone.

[Dry Rot]

DR, I owe you an apology. I seriously didn't think it had become so bad.

What makes me stick with my view that we can still make the 8 is that so many are nowhere near what should be expected in terms of output.

The issues I saw yesterday are entirely fixable in a short space of time.

Apology accepted.

But I'll stick with my view too. There's something rotten with our team this year, and I can't see it turning around.

[Dry Rot]

It is easy to whinge, but we need solutions and just potting the club and players and being a negative Nellie doesn't help anyone.

Where have I whinged, and potted the clubs and players?

I'm not negative, just realistic.

The wheels have fallen off this season.

[bulldogtragic]

According to a analytics website a frequent, liveladders, they have us projected 8th if we win 6 or I reckon 7 from here on in:

R14 v Kangaroos at Etihad
R15 v Eagles at Etihad
R16 v Crows at Adelaide Oval
R17 v Blues at the MCG
R18 v Suns in Cairns
R19 v Bombers at Etihad
R20 v Lions at the Gabba
R21 v Giants at Etihad
R22 v Power in Ballarat
R23 v Hawks at Etihad

I'm not a betting man, but I wouldn't bet right now on 6 or 7 wins from that. And I'm in real fear of what the crows could do to this current team in nothing changes by then.

[Sedat]

According to a analytics website a frequent, liveladders, they have us projected 8th if we win 6 or I reckon 7 from here on in:

R14 v Kangaroos at Etihad
R15 v Eagles at Etihad
R16 v Crows at Adelaide Oval
R17 v Blues at the MCG
R18 v Suns in Cairns
R19 v Bombers at Etihad
R20 v Lions at the Gabba
R21 v Giants at Etihad
R22 v Power in Ballarat
R23 v Hawks at Etihad

I'm not a betting man, but I wouldn't bet right now on 6 or 7 wins from that. And I'm in real fear of what the crows could do to this current team in nothing changes by then.
We win 8 out of 10 if we play to our capabilities and match it with the necessary desire - we win 2 out of 10 if we continue along the same path of the last fortnight.

[hujsh]

Where have I whinged, and potted the clubs and players?

I'm not negative, just realistic.

The wheels have fallen off this season.

Hmmm. You've had a something of a reputation as a pessimist since the Eade years.


One the subject I've not abandoned hope but I'm now going into the next few games expecting nothing. We're more than capable of winning enough games to make the finals but unlike last year we've shown ourselves to be just as capable of dropping winnable games hard. The faith I had in the first few games that we'd come back when we were behind has eroded.

I still suspect we'll make finals but I don't think we'll have a run like last year if we do.

[The Bulldogs Bite]

Another question: at what point of the season should we effectively pump games into Webb, Williams, Collins and possibly a couple of others IF our current form doesn't turn around?

I'd argue Webb and Williams are two who should be playing now, but interested on others thoughts re some of our first to second year players.

[bulldogtragic]

Another question: at what point of the season should we effectively pump games into Webb, Williams, Collins and possibly a couple of others IF our current form doesn't turn around?

I'd argue Webb and Williams are two who should be playing now, but interested on others thoughts re some of our first to second year players.

I've said we are there now. Still happy to stand by it.

[Dry Rot]

Hmmm. You've had a something of a reputation as a pessimist since the Eade years.




Wow, I have a "reputation".

Hmmm, the Eade years....when I said we didn't have a good enough forward line to win the flag, including 2009.

Negative or realistic there?

[bornadog]

Another question: at what point of the season should we effectively pump games into Webb, Williams, Collins and possibly a couple of others IF our current form doesn't turn around?

I'd argue Webb and Williams are two who should be playing now, but interested on others thoughts re some of our first to second year players.

Williams was playing well and then had a below average game against the Saints and dropped; I think we should have kept him in.

[hujsh]

Wow, I have a "reputation".

Hmmm, the Eade years....when I said we didn't have a good enough forward line to win the flag, including 2009.

Negative or realistic there?

Yeah I remember it being pointed out and noticed the same from that point onwards. Which is fine as everyone reacts differently and at the very least shows how invested you are in the club. I don't mean it as an insult though I do see why you might take it as one.

One or two twists of fate and we make 2 GFs at which point maybe we win maybe we lose. After all our forward line last year wasn't good enough to win either yet we still won.

The reality of football is that you are more likely to be disappointed than not as only one team can win a premiership. That doesn't mean that dismissing your chances before the dice is rolled is realistic. And our performance against Melbourne doesn't mean your reaction to the Sydney game was rational rather than emotional. Everything we've seen under Bevo suggested that we'd come good the following week. Like we have before under similar circumstances. It's now that we've backed it up that it becomes a real source of concern.

[hujsh]

Another question: at what point of the season should we effectively pump games into Webb, Williams, Collins and possibly a couple of others IF our current form doesn't turn around?

I'd argue Webb and Williams are two who should be playing now, but interested on others thoughts re some of our first to second year players.

It kind of goes against the whole selection philosophy doesn't it? Maybe we prefer them ahead of some senior counterparts but we can't be gifting them games. Though that only really is an issue in Collins case as Williams/ Webb have earned their chances

[bornadog]

It kind of goes against the whole selection philosophy doesn't it? Maybe we prefer them ahead of some senior counterparts but we can't be gifting them games. Though that only really is an issue in Collins case as Williams/ Webb have earned their chances

Best 22 every week - need to stick to it.

[Eastdog]

Such a tight season. We are still in this if we can get our stuff in order.

[Yankee Hotel Foxtrot]

Such a tight season. We are still in this if we can get our stuff in order.

It is a tight and funny season Easty.
Confidence as we always hear such an elusive, fickle and quickly changeable beast.
Now is where Bevo and Co need to earn their money all over again and make these guys believe that they can climb Everest again.
Last year it was using the allegories of childrens books, maybe this year we need him to tap into something harder, like Dostoevsky or Machiavelli to focus them.

[AndrewP6]

It is a tight and funny season Easty.
Confidence as we always hear such an elusive, fickle and quickly changeable beast.
Now is where Bevo and Co need to earn their money all over again and make these guys believe that they can climb Everest again.
Last year it was using the allegories of childrens books, maybe this year we need him to tap into something harder, like Dostoevsky or Machiavelli to focus them.

Perhaps after reaching the summit, it could be "Great Expectations"? ;)

[Twodogs]

Perhaps after reaching the summit, it could be "Great Expectations"? ;)


It was against Sydney so I'll go with Tale of two Cities.

[LostDoggy]

It was against Sydney so I'll go with Tale of two Cities.

It was the best of times. It was the worst of times.....

[merantau]

Let's climb Everest again. We can start by channeling Chairman Mao: "Every great journey begins with a single step and the first os to step on a Kangaroo's head." Go Dogs!

[KT31]

It was against Sydney so I'll go with Tale of two Cities.


It was the best of times. It was the worst of times.....

Not sure better words relating to this and last season could ever be written.

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way – in short, the period was so far like the present period, that some of its noisiest authorities insisted on its being received, for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only.

[1eyedog]

I think we can still defend our cup. Look back at the Freo game last year leading into the finals. Write us off at your peril.

[Topdog]

Looks a bit interesting that DryRot was labelled hysterical last week. Today's game has proven he was spot on. No joy in being proven right but just goes to show the hysterical calls were harsh. We're a bottom 4 side this year.

1 week means predictions for next 12 weeks are correct? I realise this was written just after the game and full of emotion but this is another hysterical comment.

Literally every team has gone through a bad patch this season.

[bulldogsthru&thru]

1 week means predictions for next 12 weeks are correct? I realise this was written just after the game and full of emotion but this is another hysterical comment.

Literally every team has gone through a bad patch this season.

I'm not going to get into this again. But it's been quite a bit more than 1 week.

[Eastdog]

1 week means predictions for next 12 weeks are correct? I realise this was written just after the game and full of emotion but this is another hysterical comment.

Literally every team has gone through a bad patch this season.

That's the thing fortunately for us while our season hasn't been the greatest so far the teams around us haven't been that good either and no one really has got a run going so I believe we are still right in it if we can get it together.

[Topdog]

I'm not going to get into this again. But it's been quite a bit more than 1 week.

Yep its been 2 and 1 week since the original comment.

We weren't bad against Geelong, we weren't bad against WCE, we weren't bad against the Saints.

In fact if we play like we did against those 3 teams we will win at least 6 more games this season.

The displays in the Sydney and Melbourne games are not the norm for this team. 2 games does not make a norm.