How Many More Wins?

[bulldogtragic]

The run home:

Carlton at Etihad (10th vs 16th)
GCS at Cairns (sold home game) (10th vs 13th)
Essendon at Etihad (would need to break the 'losing the week after hoodoo') (10th vs 9th)
Brisbane at Brisbane (10th vs 18th)
GWS at Etihad (10th vs 2nd)
Port Adelaide at Ballarat (sold home game)
Hawthorn at Etihad (10th vs 11th)

5 wins - probably 9th
3 or 4 wins - probably 11th or 12th

[Eastdog]

We'd have to win 5 at of our last 7 to get to 12 wins which would be enough to make the 8. Can be done but on current form right now I can't see it unfortunately as still I want to make the 8.

[bulldogtragic]

We'd have to win 5 at of our last 7 to get to 12 wins which would be enough to make the 8. Can be done but on current form right now I can't see it unfortunately as still I want to make the 8.

99.9% chance of not making the 8.

00.1% margin of error.

[bulldogsthru&thru]

12 wins won't get us in the 8. Especially with our pathetic %. I don't think 13 will do it either. Season is done and dusted. Play the kids.

[Rocket Science]

Too much bathwater ingested to be any show whatsoever. In fact a number of blokes appear to have drowned in it.

Of our home stretch I reckon we'll beat the Hawks and that's it.

Sounds weird, but at this point we've got higher priorities than wins.

Operation 2018 starts now.

[bornadog]

12 wins won't get us in the 8. Especially with our pathetic %. I don't think 13 will do it either. Season is done and dusted. Play the kids.

Which kids deserve a match?

[bulldogtragic]

Which kids deserve a match?

Collins has been best on a couple of weeks
Webb should be trialled at HB
English should be, played has performance behind him
Williams should be in too

[bulldogtragic]

Too much bathwater ingested to be any show whatsoever. In fact a number of blokes appear to have drowned in it.

Of our home stretch I reckon we'll beat the Hawks and that's it.

Sounds weird, but at this point we've got higher priorities than wins.

Operation 2018 starts now.

Hawthorn smacking GWS right now...

[GVGjr]

It's not really about wins now it's more about getting some respect back and playing good footy for longer periods.
It would also be great if we could get the scoreboard ticking over again

[bornadog]

Collins has been best on a couple of weeks
Webb should be trialled at HB
English should be, played has performance behind him
Williams should be in too

Colins - maybe, English, no, Webb depends on tomorrow's game for me, and Williams a yes.

[hujsh]

The way were going I'm worried we'll find a way to lose the games we won already.

I really just want to skip to the pre/off season and reaload/reassess for 2018. Let 2017 be the 2007 of this team

[Rocket Science]

Hawthorn smacking GWS right now...

Ha! Well scratch that then.

She'll be a lean run home I suspect.

[The bulldog tragician]

One goal in a half last night. Im not sure who in the wings can lift a forward line that's really struggled?

[Flamethrower]

In the infamous words of Jim Mora, then head coach of the Indianapolis Colts....

"Playoffs? Don't talk about—playoffs?! You kidding me? Playoffs?! I just hope we can win another game!"

[kruder]

It's not really about wins now it's more about getting some respect back and playing good footy for longer periods.
It would also be great if we could get the scoreboard ticking over again

Exactly, its about building momentum into the preseason. We cant go into the preseason with our confidence shot.

[Sedat]

If we play like we did in the 1st half last night, we'll win 6 of the last 7 and maybe all 7.

If we play like we did in the 2nd half last night, we'll win none of them.

[bulldogtragic]

If we play like we did in the 1st half last night, we'll win 6 of the last 7 and maybe all 7.

If we play like we did in the 2nd half last night, we'll win none of them.

What about if in the next 7 we put in one good half, and then a bad half?

[Sedat]

What about if in the next 7 we put in one good half, and then a bad half?
We'll be closer to the zero wins than the 7 wins.

[westdog54]

In the infamous words of Jim Mora, then head coach of the Indianapolis Colts....

"Playoffs? Don't talk about—playoffs?! You kidding me? Playoffs?! I just hope we can win another game!"

That is one of my favourite press conferences of all time.

[Eastdog]

If we play like we did in the 1st half last night, we'll win 6 of the last 7 and maybe all 7.

If we play like we did in the 2nd half last night, we'll win none of them.

Yep that pretty much sums up the potential scarnarios.

[Remi Moses]

Aretha Franklin . We need to get out R.E.S.P.E.C.T back

[Eastdog]

Aretha Franklin . We need to get out R.E.S.P.E.C.T back

Got a bit back today which was good. We need to continue it on. Our draw looks ok. Big opportunities the next few weeks against the Suns, Bombers and Lions which all are winnable games. The Giants haven't impressed me at all this year and at home I give us very chance then Port in Ballarat and we finish with the Hawks at Etihad.

[boydogs]

Suns, Bombers and Lions which all are winnable games. The Giants haven't impressed me at all this year and at home I give us very chance then Port in Ballarat and we finish with the Hawks at Etihad.

If we do beat GWS and Port I will be confident of not just making finals, but being a flag threat

If we lose to both, we probably miss the 8

[jeemak]

Got a bit back today which was good. We need to continue it on. Our draw looks ok. Big opportunities the next few weeks against the Suns, Bombers and Lions which all are winnable games. The Giants haven't impressed me at all this year and at home I give us very chance then Port in Ballarat and we finish with the Hawks at Etihad.

Tough task master Easty. The Giants have had an absolute bastard of an injury run and sit third. They're deserving of the type of credit we lamented not getting last year when we were in the midst of ours.

[Eastdog]

Tough task master Easty. The Giants have had an absolute bastard of an injury run and sit third. They're deserving of the type of credit we lamented not getting last year when we were in the midst of ours.

Maybe it's because it's the Giants :) but yeah if they got their stuff in order they certainly would be a threat. The prelim final yes was a bloody tough game for sure.

[Eastdog]

If we do beat GWS and Port I will be confident of not just making finals, but being a flag threat

If we lose to both, we probably miss the 8

Definitely tough games based on how we have travelled this year but it wouldn't surprise me if we won 1 of them. Hopefully we can get the next 3 but will just take it 1 week at a time and focus on the Suns this Saturday.

[bulldogsthru&thru]

Depending on other results we could need 6 more wins to get in due to our poor %.

5 wins and we still rely on other results going our way

4 wins and its all over im afraid.

So i basically see it as needing to win every game from here to make the 8. Not going to happen. That eagles loss was just diabolical and crucial given that it's probably their spot we will most likely take if we made the 8.

[Topdog]

Depending on other results we could need 6 more wins to get in due to our poor %.

5 wins and we still rely on other results going our way

4 wins and its all over im afraid.

So i basically see it as needing to win every game from here to make the 8. Not going to happen. That eagles loss was just diabolical and crucial given that it's probably their spot we will most likely take if we made the 8.

If we get 5 wins and finish on 13 we make the finals.

12 wins we miss out due to percentage which we essentially can't make up anymore.

AFL site has a predictor to use.

www.afl.com.au/ladder/ladder-predictor

[bornadog]

If we get 5 wins and finish on 13 we make the finals.

12 wins we miss out due to percentage which we essentially can't make up anymore.

AFL site has a predictor to use.

www.afl.com.au/ladder/ladder-predictor (http://www.afl.com.au/ladder/ladder-predictor)

I have us finishing 7th

[bulldogsthru&thru]

If we get 5 wins and finish on 13 we make the finals.

12 wins we miss out due to percentage which we essentially can't make up anymore.

AFL site has a predictor to use.

www.afl.com.au/ladder/ladder-predictor

Yep. And i had us 9th on % with 13 wins. We missed out on % to west coast. Of course, the ladder predictor is fraught with danger, especially this year. But there are a number of teams i have finishing with 13 wins.

[bulldogsthru&thru]

The run home. Let's assume we get 5 more wins (6 gets us in, 4 or less means we miss out)


Richmond:
Rd 18: GWS (MCG)
Rd 19: Gold Coast (Metricon Stadium)
Rd 20: Hawthorn (MCG)
Rd 21: Geelong (Simonds Stadium)
Rd 22: Fremantle (Domain Stadium)
Rd 23: St Kilda (MCG)
Wins: 14
Games against top 8 2
Games against fellow contenders 1

Sydney:
Rd 18: St Kilda (SCG)
Rd 19: Hawthorn (MCG)
Rd 20: Geelong (Simonds Stadium)
Rd 21: Fremantle (SCG)
Rd 22: Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)
Rd 23: Carlton (SCG)
Wins: 13
Games against top 8 2
Games against fellow contenders 1


Melbourne:
Rd 18: Port Adelaide (MCG)
Rd 19: North Melbourne (Blundstone Arena)
Rd 20: GWS (Manuka Oval)
Rd 21: St Kilda (MCG)
Rd 22: Brisbane Lions (MCG)
Rd 23: Collingwood (MCG)
Wins: 13
Games against top 8 2
Games against fellow contenders 1


West Coast:
Rd 18: Collingwood (Etihad Stadium)
Rd 19: Brisbane Lions (Domain Stadium)
Rd 20: St Kilda (Etihad Stadium)
Rd 21: Carlton (Domain Stadium)
Rd 22: GWS (Spotless Stadium)
Rd 23: Adelaide (Domain Stadium)
Wins: 13
Games against top 8 2
Games against fellow contenders 1


St Kilda:
Rd 18: Sydney (SCG)
Rd 19: Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)
Rd 20: West Coast (Etihad Stadium)
Rd 21: Melbourne (MCG)
Rd 22: North Melbourne (Etihad Stadium)
Rd 23: Richmond (MCG)
Wins: 12
Games against top 8 5
Games against fellow contenders 4


Essendon:
Rd 18: North Melbourne (Etihad Stadium)
Rd 19: Western Bulldogs (Etihad Stadium)
Rd 20: Carlton (MCG)
Rd 21: Adelaide (Etihad Stadium)
Rd 22: Gold Coast (Metricon Stadium)
Rd 23: Fremantle (Etihad Stadium)
Wins: 12
Games against top 8 1
Games against fellow contenders 1

So assuming logical outcomes (again, fraught with danger this year) Saints are out with the tough run home. Richmond, Sydney and Melbourne get through on % or games. That leaves West Coast and Essendon. We must beat Essendon. Then we need to hope West Coast drop a game they shouldnt. Certainly possible. But we're still relying on other results.

[Cyberdoggie]

I did the ladder predictor and basically the only way to guarantee finales is if we win every game.
If we lose 1 (say to the giants), we may sneak in 8th spot if we are lucky but will probably finish 9th.

Also interesting for the giants, For their last game against the eagles, if they win they probably stay 4th, if they lost they could even drop to 9th it is going to be that close.

If we lose against the bombres or power we are gone, can't make it.

[Ozza]

I have us finishing 10th, Eagles 9th - with Richmond/Sydney/Essendon/Melbourne as the bottom half of the eight.

[aker39]

I did the ladder predictor and basically the only way to guarantee finales is if we win every game.
If we lose 1 (say to the giants), we may sneak in 8th spot if we are lucky but will probably finish 9th.

Also interesting for the giants, For their last game against the eagles, if they win they probably stay 4th, if they lost they could even drop to 9th it is going to be that close.

If we lose against the bombres or power we are gone, can't make it.


I was the same.
Win all 6, finish 6th
Loose 1 (GWS), finish 9th

The Eagles loss is going to be very costly.

[LostDoggy]

Richmond's spot in the 8 is up for grabs in my opinion. I can easily see them only winning 1 possibly 2 on there run home. I would only have them as slight favourites against Gold Coast up there. That's about it.

[bulldogsthru&thru]

I have us finishing 10th, Eagles 9th - with Richmond/Sydney/Essendon/Melbourne as the bottom half of the eight.

Similar to what i have

[merantau]

We kicked poorly all year. If we miss out on percentage we only have ourselves to blame and I think it might even be a repeat of what happened in 1955 if it comes to pass.

[Bulldog Joe]

If we get 5 wins and finish on 13 we make the finals.

12 wins we miss out due to percentage which we essentially can't make up anymore.

AFL site has a predictor to use.

www.afl.com.au/ladder/ladder-predictor

While I concede that we are unlikely to make up much percentage, it is not impossible to do so.

A couple of big wins against the Qld teams and we could improve by 10%.

[LostDoggy]

We kicked poorly all year. If we miss out on percentage we only have ourselves to blame and I think it might even be a repeat of what happened in 1955 if it comes to pass.
Except for the fact that 1955 saw us record our greatest ever percentage in a single season.

[jeemak]

The Age has us missing:

http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/afl-rules-out-concurrent-games-for-live-teams-in-possible-round-23-finals-logjam-20170717-gxczlu.html

[The Bulldogs Bite]

The Age has us missing:

http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/afl-rules-out-concurrent-games-for-live-teams-in-possible-round-23-finals-logjam-20170717-gxczlu.html

Hard to argue with.

At this stage I think we'd struggle to beat Essendon too.

[bulldogsthru&thru]

The Age has us missing:

http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/afl-rules-out-concurrent-games-for-live-teams-in-possible-round-23-finals-logjam-20170717-gxczlu.html

jeez, if west coast, essendon and Melbourne do as per the age, i'll be happy. That means 5 wins gets us in. And gets us in at 7th. I like that :)

[bulldogsthru&thru]

Hard to argue with.

At this stage I think we'd struggle to beat Essendon too.

Judging by what i saw friday night, essendon would carve us a new one if we play like we have most of the year.

[bulldogtragic]

I have us 11th. Netting pick 8.

If we are going to miss, then the lower the pick the better (not advocating tanking). Pick 8 is good Lever/Kelly bait.

[jeemak]

Judging by what i saw friday night, essendon would carve us a new one if we play like we have most of the year.

Depends how we tried to play against them. If we went head to head against them with a run and gun approach then yes, but if we employed a structure and stuck to it whilst maintaining a level of ferocity towards the contest then we'd account for them.

[Twodogs]

I have us 11th. Netting pick 8.

If we are going to miss, then the lower the pick the better (not advocating tanking). Pick 8 is good Lever/Kelly bait.

You know the point is making finals, winning premierships and all that not getting good draft picks for other clubs.

Though it is a good deal...

[Sedat]

10 more wins ;)

[Eastdog]

10 more wins ;)

And will go back to back :)

[bulldogtragic]

You know the point is making finals, winning premierships and all that not getting good draft picks for other clubs.

Though it is a good deal...

Why didn't you tell the players that this year?

[aker39]

10 more wins ;)

Yep, it is going to take 11 wins in row to win it.
Brendan Goddard will make a movie about it.

[Twodogs]

Why didn't you tell the players that this year?


No one asked me to.

[bulldogtragic]

No one asked me to.

Are you free to take pre-season training in October? Oh, and kick the ball through the two big sticks too as another message.

[Bulldog Joe]

10 more wins ;)

Might need 11.
But win the next 10 we are either premiers or playing off.

[Bulldog Joe]

It really is a tight season.

When you look at the Age predictor with Adelaide finishing top, you realise that they could still miss altogether.

While I don't expect it to happen everyone of the Crows games is losable for them, yet they have them winning 5 of 6. I feel pretty certain they win less than 5.

GWS could also win as few as 2 more.

Plenty of interest in the season for any neutral. (not that anyone is ever really neutral)

[Sedat]

Might need 11.
But win the next 10 we are either premiers or playing off.
Only 6 rounds to go - happy to win R1 next year after we unfurl the flag :D

[bulldogtragic]

If we play off in the GF, I will put $500 on the bar at Beer Deluxe for woofers on GF morning.

So I don't think we will be there, but I offered Eastie 1000/1 on any bet last year at this time of the season about nothing happening (which thank your soul Eastie you didn't take up), so $500 is the balance between my confidence in this year being unfortunately unfulfilling, but that nagging chance of against the odds. I think we just let a couple of games go that are the difference.

Book mark it.

[Twodogs]

Are you free to take pre-season training in October? Oh, and kick the ball through the two big sticks too as another message.

Don't tempt me.

[bornadog]

If we play off in the GF, I will put $500 on the bar at Beer Deluxe for woofers on GF morning.

So I don't think we will be there, but I offered Eastie 1000/1 on any bet last year at this time of the season about nothing happening (which thank your soul Eastie you didn't take up), so $500 is the balance between my confidence in this year being unfortunately unfulfilling, but that nagging chance of against the odds. I think we just let a couple of games go that are the difference.

Book mark it.

Bookmarked :)

[boydogs]

Then we need to hope West Coast drop a game they shouldnt. Certainly possible. But we're still relying on other results.

The Age has got West Coast right IMO. Won't beat GWS or Adelaide. Big chance to lose to St Kilda in Melbourne, even Collingwood in Melbourne this week they're a chance to drop

Record in Melbourne this year:

R1: beat North by 73
R3: lost to Richmond by 11
R5: lost to Hawthorn by 50
R9: lost to Essendon by 61
R15: beat WB by 7

Their percentage is in reach too - they're +29 for the year, we're -80

[Bulldog Joe]

Only 6 rounds to go - happy to win R1 next year after we unfurl the flag :D

Sorry.
I remember now, that is what I said on the way to the G on Sunday.
Now it is only 10 but an outside chance of getting it done in 9.

[Eastdog]

10 more wins ;)

2 out of 10 completed :)

Bombers at Etihad
Lions at Gabba
Giants at Either
Power at Ballarat
Hawks at Etihad

[bornadog]

2 out of 10 completed :)

Bombers at Etihad
Lions at Gabba
Giants at Etihad
Power at Ballarat
Hawks at Etihad

All winnable

[LostDoggy]

Nothing matters at this stage but next weeks game.

[Eastdog]

Nothing matters at this stage but next weeks game.

Yep 1 week at time. The focus now is to next Sunday.

[LostDoggy]

Reckon we need to win 4 of 5 to be likely to play finals. This week is huge as Essendon will be one of our chief rivals.

[boydogs]

Reckon we need to win 4 of 5 to be likely to play finals. This week is huge as Essendon will be one of our chief rivals.

They will test our "goal out the back" defense, but if we pressure, run and use the ball like we did yesterday we should win

[merantau]

I expect JJ will be targeted by Worsfold so we must be ready for that and the UMPIRES must be ready for it too. It is such an obvious tactic now so there is no excuse for umpire's not to be umpiring it out of the game. Does the charge "Unduly rough play" still exist? If so shoving a bloke in the back when the ball is 100mts away is not on.
This game is the clincher. A good win and we are well on the way. A loss makes it SO much harder. We can do it with intensity and straight kicking. Let's take the pressure off ourselves by NAILING OUR CHANCES.

[Topdog]

Playing at Etihad I give us almost no hope

[Cyberdoggie]

If we lose we can't make it unless some major upsets occur.

[Ozza]

I dunno. Sure, Essendon have played out of their skins a few times this year - but they were far from that on Saturday.

It took them until mid way through the 3rd quarter to get a hold of a North Melbourne team who aren't trying to win anymore, and are full of kids. They even lost Robbie Tarrant in the warm up.

Essendon had 600 games more experience in their team than North Melbourne on Saturday, North had 7 players with less than 10 games experience.

If we get the 'best' Essendon - we'll get beaten - but its a big 'IF'.

[aker39]

Sam McLure reporting Jeremy Cameron out for 3 weeks.