The Buddy Franklin Trade 4 Years On

[bulldogtragic]

So Buddy went to Sydney on a $10,000,000 and 9 years. It's now four years on and roughly half way through, I wonder what the parameters are on whether its been successful. That is:

- Is the marketing for club, and presumably influence in members and sponsors signing worth it financially alone?
- Is it kicking goals? He's done that.
- Is it winning H&A games? He's 64/25.
- Is it winning finals? Of his 9 finals, he's lost 4 including losing two grand finals. Winning no Premierships.

He's got 5 more seasons, on their books at least, and with an aging side around him including his body still bettering the rigours of AFL. They've lost some good players as a result of making two huge offers to Buddy & Tippett. Money from extra memberships or sponsorships is great, but to me a contract like this needs a premiership or two. There's pros and cons as to whether the contract has been a success, but I think if they can't get a premiership in the next two years (Buddy's probable last few good years, he's 31 in January) then from a footy perspective it's a back fire.

Thoughts?

[Remi Moses]

Great topic Trag. I'd say Buddy's kept his end of the bargain , but it's cost Sydney vital players like Tom Mitchell and Depth .
The marketing component has been a raging success, but although Sydney won't say it they would have wanted a flag or two .
Sydney are still heavily reliant on Kennedy for mine, and with a few top Enders out they struggle

[Twodogs]

If they don't get a flag to show for their 10 000 000 it's a bust. All the marketing, membership, h & a wins are nice but don't really count in the end. It's premierships that count.

[ledge]

Financially they have got their money back, winning a flag or two would make it a success all round, but a club in Sydney that struggled to survive without the AFL throwing in cash, the AFL and the Sydney football club would say it's been a success as it has bought members,money and stability to the club.

Buddy has fulfilled his side of the bargain as well, good football and has been a huge part of getting them to grand finals.
But a flag with buddy would tick all the boxes ,that's the only box left.

[Go_Dogs]

I think the move has been a success, a flag or 2 would've made it a raging success.

He's still one of the best players in the game - if you can get the best players in the game to come to your club, you do and you will have to pony up some serious money to do it.

The Tippett deal, and to a lesser extent the huge 5-year deal Sam Reid signed way back when, would be the regrets.

[merantau]

If they don't win a flag within the next three years with him then they are unlikely to win one at the back end of his contract as their top liners we all be aged by then. So the bottom line for mine is a fail.

[Sedat]

Buddy has been worth it but Tippett has been a disaster. Losing players due to the cap squeeze would have been greatly minimised without Tippett clogging up so much space for so little return.

The best player in the comp (which Buddy is) should be paid what he is getting.

[Bulldog4life]

Buddy has been a great pick up. Favourite non bulldog player to watch for me.

[bornadog]

Buddy has been worth it but Tippett has been a disaster. Losing players due to the cap squeeze would have been greatly minimised without Tippett clogging up so much space for so little return.

The best player in the comp (which Buddy is) should be paid what he is getting.

They got Tippet first and then Buddy was available the following year, so they went for Buddy. If it was the other way around, they wouldn't have got Tippet. What a disappointment Tippet has become.

[MrMahatma]

Buddy has been worth it but Tippett has been a disaster. Losing players due to the cap squeeze would have been greatly minimised without Tippett clogging up so much space for so little return.

The best player in the comp (which Buddy is) should be paid what he is getting.

Agree 100%. Buddy has been worth it. Any loss of other players should be pointed at Tippet. That's one of the worst deals a team has ever done...

That said, they've made the GF twice post Bud. So the list can't be all bad, can it?

[Bullies]

Buddy has been a great pick up. Favourite non bulldog player to watch for me. Absolutely. Has been a huge success up there and worth every cent. Amazing footballer to watch.

[bulldogtragic]

Now, it’s 8 Completed Seasons of 9 Years on $10,000,000.

From a marketing perspective. It’s a clearly a great result. But five metrics I’m looking at:

1. Home & Away Success
2. Goals & Behinds
3. Finals Week 1-3 Success
4. Premiership Success
5. Player Retention Within The Salary Cap Pressure of $10,000,000

1. Home & Away Success

136 played

91 win
45 losses

Success for Sydney

2. Goals & Behinds

415 Goals (circa 3 per game)
289 Behinds (circa 2 per game)

Success for Sydney

3. Finals - Weeks 1-3

Played 9

5 Finals Won
4 Final Lost

Not great.

4. Grand Finals Played

Played 2

2 Grand Finals Lost
0 Grand Finals Won

Horrible.

5. Player Retention Within The Salary Cap

Players Not Retained or Unable To Be Retained:

Shane Mumford
Andreajs Everitt (who looked good up there)
Jed Lamb
Nick Malceski
Shane Biggs
Craig Bird
Lewis Jetta (Callum Sinclair)
Tom Mitchell
Toby Nankervis
Gary Rohan
Dan Hannerbery
Nic Newman
Darcy Cameron
Zak Jones
Aliir Aliir

A lot of good players no longer there.


Not clear cut. Great for marketing, great return in the Home & Away. But that money and years is a big game player, which Buddy is. But an average Week 1-3 Finals Record counts against it. 2 Grand Losses from 2 Grand Finals is really counting against it. The list of players that they’ve let go with money a factor in a lot of them also counts against it.

I guess it’s a matter of perspective about this acquisition. I think the test is ultimately winning a premiership for $10,000,000 over 9 Years. Whilst he has time before retiring (he’s 34 now), I don’t think the acquisition on these terms is a great one. Some good benefits no doubt. But would they do it again with the power of hindsight?

[Dry Rot]

Really good analysis, but I beg to slightly differ.

What really ****ed the Swans up and made so many players leave was the similarly big in dollar terms (not longevity) of the Tippett trade/recruitment/salary.

Bandy, Bartlett and Hunter were all better players that that oxygen thief.

Glad Grundy went for him after the 2016 GF loss.

[bulldogtragic]

Really good analysis, but I beg to slightly differ.

What really ****ed the Swans up and made so many players leave was the similarly big in dollar terms (not longevity) of the Tippett trade/recruitment/salary.

Bandy, Bartlett and Hunter were all better players that that oxygen thief.

Glad Grundy went for him after the 2016 GF loss.

That’s another thread including the salary cap cheating. But put circa 22-25% of the cap into two guys and you’d want to winning when it matters. They ‘won’ both of these acquisitions, but spread that out across a lot of good players actually wins teams things. I get with Capper, Plugger, Hall they have a history of these sorts of trades. But it makes for an interesting debate about list management about going out to ‘win’ acquisitions or spreading that cap around to keep role players and/or have more cap to retain players.

Either way, from memory there’s $1,500,000 or more owed next year (15% TPP for a 35yo). Parker wants more cash. Clubs will offer their young talent more cash. The sting might be in the tail from this might be this list management period coming up. For their sake, I hope it doesn’t undue the great drafting job they’ve been doing.

[bornadog]

Buddy was a little pissed off with Clarkson and the constant demand he sign a new contract. Buddy was on holiday in Vegas and hadn't signed up at that stage, and Clarkson flew over demanded Buddy sign it. He knew then that was it. Rung his manager and said get me out of here.

[macca]

Great analysis BT. Here is brief observations:
Summary :

8 good players leaving, thats almost half of team on the park! The other argument is would they have found so many young kids in the draft? I guess further analysis may be needed with the draft picks.

7 fringe players leaving: this is good trading or list management

Good players left:
Shane Mumford: whether you like him or hate him, his a good ruckman. Called out of retirement twice and his just keeps on serving.
Played in 2019 GF, and now playing in Semi-Final in 2021.

Nick Malceski: could he have played on another year ?

Shane Biggs: 2016 premiership , brillian pickup for the doggies

Lewis Jetta (Callum Sinclair): 2018 GF, important year . Lost for sydney

Tom Mitchell : brownlow medalist , Lost for Sydney, deserves to be on good coin at Hawks

Toby Nankervis : Gun ruckman, Why they hell we did not pick him up in 2016??? (rhetorical question)
3 time premiership ruckman 2017,2019,2020. Was he perceived to be behind Sinclair???


Gary Rohan: flat track bully, I want to put him in the expendable bucket but his type of player who will kick a bag in burst of 5 mins

Aliir Aliir: gun , shake my head how we did not know he was available.

Players on decline or expendable:
Craig Bird: could not get enough games with essendon. I always thought he was relatively clean user with the ball, but did not seem to click at Essendon.

Zak Jones;: a few Injuries, on the decline
Dan Hannerbery: his knee injury in 2016 GF has not really recovered
Nic Newman: fringe player for carlton in 2021, in a crap team, heading towards being delisted.
Darcy Cameron: can't get enough games at struggling pies. Behind Grundy. Threatening to be a great Eker.
Andreajs Everitt (who looked good up there): got worst at carlton, could have been anything if he applied himself.
Jed Lamb: went to GWS then Carlton where he played 44 games and got delisted in 2018, in a crap team.

Overall, I think after the losing the second GF and losing players , I think thats where the Buddy deal has really hurt them. Once Buddy retires, their forward line will need to find more power forwards to replace him. Also losing the Sydney living away from rest of Australia allowance has not helped.

They lost by 1 point tonight against GWS and they threaten to overun them in the last 2 mins of 2021 First week of final. So Sydney are not that far off at the moment, and their list looks pretty healthy.

I still never understood that Tippett deal, it was massive money to pay for someone who was a temporary ruckman and just really tall and an ok mark. He did get them into a few GF, and allowed Goodes to be that roaming mobile forward who could play anywhere. Tippet deal really requires further analysis on his stats.

[Go_Dogs]

I’d say it’s a success. Plenty of finals and 2 GFs over 8 years. You take that.

If the players they’ve lost, Aliir looks like the main one they will regret. Tom Mitchell too on paper, but he was surplus and despite having individual success hasn’t been a difference maker for an AFL side.

Have turned their list over well and probably would’ve won if the game went for another minute yesterday.

[soupman]

Huge success.

He's the most marketable player the AFL has seen for ages, has justified his superstar status throughout his time at Sydney and the side has been genuinely great with him in it.

They have lost barely anybody they would've wanted to keep, and I'm not convinced many of those guys were forced out due to Buddy. Maybe Mitchell, and maybe Mumford, but the rest are all normal attrition imo.

With Buddy they have made two Grand Finals, which is a success, as I consider them 5050 shots. Their other finals series have been a bit underwhelming but I don't put that down to Buddy and not sure they are better without him and with Mitchell and somebody else.

[comrade]

Yeah, ultimately a success given they’ve been contenders throughout his tenure. Him rolling his ankle early in the 2016 GF might be one of the great twists of fate.

[The Bulldogs Bite]

Definitely a success, close to it being a masterstroke if they got another flag.

The fact they won 2 flags in recent memory prior to him coming softens the blow of not winning one with him.

[jeemak]

Huge success.

He's the most marketable player the AFL has seen for ages, has justified his superstar status throughout his time at Sydney and the side has been genuinely great with him in it.

They have lost barely anybody they would've wanted to keep, and I'm not convinced many of those guys were forced out due to Buddy. Maybe Mitchell, and maybe Mumford, but the rest are all normal attrition imo.

With Buddy they have made two Grand Finals, which is a success, as I consider them 5050 shots. Their other finals series have been a bit underwhelming but I don't put that down to Buddy and not sure they are better without him and with Mitchell and somebody else.

Good summary.

[GVGjr]

I thought it was reckless at the time but it's been an outstanding success

[EasternWest]

Huge success.

He's the most marketable player the AFL has seen for ages, has justified his superstar status throughout his time at Sydney and the side has been genuinely great with him in it.

They have lost barely anybody they would've wanted to keep, and I'm not convinced many of those guys were forced out due to Buddy. Maybe Mitchell, and maybe Mumford, but the rest are all normal attrition imo.

With Buddy they have made two Grand Finals, which is a success, as I consider them 5050 shots. Their other finals series have been a bit underwhelming but I don't put that down to Buddy and not sure they are better without him and with Mitchell and somebody else.

Agree with every word of this.

Also responsible for the greatest grand Final moment ever.

[Twodogs]

Agree with every word of this.

Also responsible for the greatest grand Final moment ever.

We were sitting at the end he was heading towards and I remember thinking "oh no, here we go" but then all of a sudden the ball is bouncing through for a goal for us at the other end.

[Twodogs]

Huge success.

He's the most marketable player the AFL has seen for ages, has justified his superstar status throughout his time at Sydney and the side has been genuinely great with him in it.

They have lost barely anybody they would've wanted to keep, and I'm not convinced many of those guys were forced out due to Buddy. Maybe Mitchell, and maybe Mumford, but the rest are all normal attrition imo.

With Buddy they have made two Grand Finals, which is a success, as I consider them 5050 shots. Their other finals series have been a bit underwhelming but I don't put that down to Buddy and not sure they are better without him and with Mitchell and somebody else.

Good post

[Twodogs]

Buddy was a little pissed off with Clarkson and the constant demand he sign a new contract. Buddy was on holiday in Vegas and hadn't signed up at that stage, and Clarkson flew over demanded Buddy sign it. He knew then that was it. Rung his manager and said get me out of here.

Wow. That's a bit like weird stalker behaviour

[Topdog]

Did they lose Aliir due to money or because they didnt really want him / use him?

[Happy Days]

Aliir walked, don’t think they tried terribly hard to keep him either.

[Twodogs]

Did they lose Aliir due to money or because they didnt really want him / use him?

He was in and out of the team a fair bit from 2017-2020 with injury wasn't he?

I really wanted us to make a play for him in the 2017 post season as a replacement for Hamling.

[bulldogtragic]

Reading that the cause of the huge salary cap problem at the Swans is due to the back ended structure to the Buddy deal. $1.5M this after several big years and still a million or so next year. Signing up Parker who was wanting $700,000 means that they’re going to lose players to accommodate the back ended Buddy deal.

[azabob]

Did they lose Aliir due to money or because they didnt really want him / use him?

Port Adelaide made a pitch to Alilr that involved a longer contract, i'd assume more cash but they actually said they'd play him in defence, not as a make shift ruckman like the swans did.

[Happy Days]

If they keep Dawson does any of this really matter? Stephens has looked terrible, Hewett isn't exactly a superstar and the rest are flotsam.

[The Bulldogs Bite]

Who could we realistically target from the Swans?

Reid, Melican. Sinclair, Naismith?

[macca]

What is Naismith current medical status ? He looked a decent ruck before he got all injured

[bulldogtragic]

If they keep Dawson does any of this really matter? Stephens has looked terrible, Hewett isn't exactly a superstar and the rest are flotsam.

Dawson has requested a trade. Apparently money is the big factor. Swans can offer years, but not enough money after Parker got a good deal.


What is Naismith current medical status ? He looked a decent ruck before he got all injured

I think he’s absolutely shot.

[soupman]

Dawson is a big loss. Genuinely quality player.

[Grantysghost]

Dawson is a big loss. Genuinely quality player.

Agree he's a gun. Best kick in the game probably (Caleb is my best) .

[Dry Rot]

Anyone else see that the Cats had a lot of crook players? Puts the Demons' win in a different light.

Saw this on BF

Well it seems like at least 6 cats players were as crook on game day, such that Geelong contacted the AFL saying they may need to put in emergencies and others to field a team.