Boom or Bust? The Run To The Bye

[The Adelaide Connection]

Obviously sitting at 1-4 is not a good way to be, but we have probably as good a run as we could hope for in the six rounds to the bye and a real opportunity (if we can play like we did against Essendon and Sydney) to get our season back on track.

The run of six games (four of which are at Etihad) are:

Tonight v Carlton @ Etihad (6 day break)
Round 7 v Gold Coast @ Ballarat (7 day break)
Round 8 v Brisbane @ Etihad (7 day break)
Round 9 v Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval (6 day break)
Round 10 v Collingwood @ Etihad (7 day break)
Round 11 v Melbourne @ Etihad (8 day break)

Preseason I think we would have been banking on all of these aside Adelaide in Adelaide. I have heard a number of coaches mention (and tend to agree) that this caper is sometimes more about WHEN you play a team (due to form/momentum, injuries, how many days break etc.) than WHO you play. I would add the WHERE is also pretty significant.

Right now none of these teams, aside Collingwood, are travelling particularly well and (like us) could potentially either set up their season or completely fall off the cliff by the time they hit the bye. It is certainly worth casting an eye over who/where/when each team plays before they hit us.

Carlton (18th, 0-5)
Tonight v Us (6 day break)
Notes: Have been awful, but were significantly better against WC last week.

Gold Coast (12th, 3-2):
Tomorrow v Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval (6 day break)
Round 7 v us @ Etihad (7 day break)
Notes: They ground to a halt against Brisbane after successive Perth games and are away again off a 6 day break against Adelaide who they have a horrible record against (never having beaten them and always copping a fair thrashing).

Brisbane (17th, 0-5):
Tomorrow v GWS @ Spotless (6 day break)
Round 7 v Collingwood @ The Gabba (8 day break)
Round 8 v us @ Etihad (with a 6 day break)
Notes: Hit two of the "form" teams before hitting us in Melbourne after a 6 day break.

Adelaide (8th, 3-2):
Tomorrow v Gold Coast @ Adelaide Oval (8 day break)
Round 7 v Carlton @ Adelaide Oval (7 day break)
Round 8 v Port Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval (7 day break)
Round 9 v Us @ Adelaide Oval (6 day break)
Notes: Would probably rate their chances of banking a few big wins in the two before the Showdown. Only get a 6 day break after the Showdown before they get us- hopefully they are sore and cop a few suspensions too).

Collingwood (5th, 3-2):
Sunday v Richmond @ The MCG (4 day break)
Round 7 v Brisbane @ The Gabba (6 day break)
Round 8 v Geelong @ The MCG (7 day break)
Round 9 v St. Kilda @ Etihad (6 day break)
Round 10 v Us @ Etihad (6 day break)
Notes: Should find out if Collingwood are the real deal after a bright start, but I suspect that they are a pretty delicate flower that will wilt back to mediocrity if they drop a couple. Tough schedule in terms of breaks- be interested to see how many soft tissue injuries they get in this period.

Melbourne (14th, 2-3):
Sunday v Essendon @ Etihad (5 day break)
Round 7 v St Kilda @ Etihad (7 day break)
Round 8 v Gold Coast @ The Gabba (6 day break)
Round 9 v Carlton @ The MCG (8 day break)
Round 10 v Adelaide @ Marrara (Darwin) (7 day break)
Round 11 v Us @ Etihad (6 day break)
Notes: Aside the one game at the MCG they play "Home" in Darwin, at the Gabba, and three at Etihad (which they have a terrible record at). Could easily win 4 out of 5 or none. They hit us at Etihad after the tough Darwin conditions and a 6 day break.

So how many do we win? Can we win them all and hit the bye sitting at 7-4? Do we head in at 1-10 and start thinking about Lacocious? Or somewhere in the middle?

[Mofra]

I voted 3, think it will be 3 or 4. At least 2 of the next 3, and Melbourne at Etihad I'd back us in (I'd tip the demons if it was at the MCG).

Adelaide just won without Rory Sloane and I think the Crouch brothers just have too much ball winning capacity with Libba out and Bonti down on midfield output.

Collingwood seem to have turned the corner although we matched it with them during the JLT series while we stuck with the rotation cap for 3/4ers.

[LostDoggy]

I went 3 as well. 2 we'd be favourite in (Carlton, Brisbane), 2 are 50/50s (GCS, Melbourne) and 2 we'd be distinct outsiders (Adelaide, Collingwood). If we can win 4 and be 5-6, that'd keep us around the mark at the half way point. That'd be something of a salvage job from our wretched start I suppose.

[The Adelaide Connection]

I've got us down for four.

The Adelaide game is the only one I think we can't win, which is probably a trauma response to last year.

I also have us dropping the Pies game, but I am still unsure about this one. If we win the first three (as I optimistically expect) and they can only win one of four (which I can see happening especially as fatigue/injuries set in from their schedule) the gloss goes off and the blowtorch goes back on and they will be vulnerable.

[boydogs]

2 of our 3 bad games have been on the road, so I'm confident enough to back us in for all the Melbourne games - 5/6

[Eastdog]

Next 3 anyway:

Round 7 vs Suns = think a win
Round 8 vs Lions = think a win
Round 9 vs Crows = probably lose

Pies and Demons very winnable games I reckon at Etihad.

[Twodogs]

I'm not confident in predicting which bulldog team will turn up let alone how the games will turn out.

[Rocket Science]

I actually voted on 3 wins prior to the Carlton game, but on reflection fear it'll only be two from six.

Gold Coast (L) We're flaky enough right now that the travel factor's a pretty challenging one. Lynch might even outscore us on his own.
Brisbane (W) A timely gift, throw the Dog a bone.
Adelaide (L) Oh dear. We may hang with them for a half then watch the tide turn, crowd at their backs. Deja freakin vu.
Collingwood (L) They're playing with a certain motivation at the moment that we can only summon in fits and starts.
Melbourne (L) The supreme twats will set themselves for this and we'll probably fight it out but unfortunately oblige.

Keep getting games into the kids.

[The Adelaide Connection]

*Updated after Round 6 results*

Our run:
Round 7 v Gold Coast @ Ballarat (7 day break)
Round 8 v Brisbane @ Etihad (7 day break)
Round 9 v Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval (6 day break)
Round 10 v Collingwood @ Etihad (7 day break)
Round 11 v Melbourne @ Etihad (8 day break)


Gold Coast (13th, 3-3):
Round 7 v us @ Etihad (7 day break)
Notes: Got absolutely belted in the first half (second quarter especially) before rallying and, at times, taking it right up to the Crows. The Crows were just able to keep them at arms length long enough and kicked away (but only won the second half by three points). Rory Thompson (who I really rate and who will be a prime candidate for Boyd) badly rolled his ankle, but they obvioulsy jabbed him up and restrapped it. I wonder if it blew up when it cooled down- if so he might need a week.

Brisbane (17th, 0-6):
Round 7 v Collingwood @ The Gabba (8 day break)
Round 8 v us @ Etihad (with a 6 day break)
Notes: Looked despondent after getting touched up by GWS. A five goal loss probably isn't too bad on paper (considering they had only scored 1.6 to half time) but no wins from six looked like it had taken its toll in the faces of a young team that were playing free spirited, exciting footy in the first few rounds.

Adelaide (5th, 4-2):
Round 7 v Carlton @ Adelaide Oval (7 day break)
Round 8 v Port Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval (7 day break)
Round 9 v Us @ Adelaide Oval (6 day break)
Notes: A few more injuries (Taylor Walker looks to have a mild hamstring strain and McKay has a hip/glute problem). Probably lucky that they get Carlton at home, which they can use to freshen up a few before the showdown.

Collingwood (10th, 3-3):
Round 7 v Brisbane @ The Gabba (6 day break)
Round 8 v Geelong @ The MCG (7 day break)
Round 9 v St. Kilda @ Etihad (6 day break)
Round 10 v Us @ Etihad (6 day break)
Notes: Slip from 5th to 10th in the blink of an eye. Hung around for three quarters before getting pretty belted in the last. Ran out of petrol. Aish and Reid set for extended stints out. Like the Crows, lucky they run into a pretty listless opposition this week.

Melbourne (12th, 3-3):
Round 7 v St Kilda @ Etihad (7 day break)
Round 8 v Gold Coast @ The Gabba (6 day break)
Round 9 v Carlton @ The MCG (8 day break)
Round 10 v Adelaide @ Marrara (Darwin) (7 day break)
Round 11 v Us @ Etihad (6 day break)
Notes: Beat up a pretty insipid Essendon. How bad were they? Head over to https://discourse.bomberblitz.com for some in depth reviews and good times. Hogan has a bit of an ankle niggle, but it doesn't look serious. Expect Melbourne to come out this week and choke up a storm and get trounced by the Saints.

As an aside, if all results go "our way" next round and we are able to win by 200 or so points, we will find ourselves in the 8! ;)

[LostDoggy]

3 games to go till the bye. We've won the 3 we needed to and got ourselves back into the mix. The real test comes now though; our 4 wins this year have come against teams 14, 15, 17 and 18.

I'm really excited to see what we can do in the next 3 weeks. This Friday's match will on paper be the hardest of the 3. Realistically a win is improbable and a competitive showing would be encouraging. You do get the feeling,though, that there is a bit of belief building amongst our young fellas, who knows what they may be capable of. Can't wait.

[Eastdog]

The next 3 weeks will be good tests. The past 3 weeks we have won against more 'weaker' opposition but nonetheless won all 3 which is huge. I was speaking to my mate yesterday and he reckons we are due for an away win in SA. Would be a huge scalp. We need to be much more competitive on the road as our losses this year so far on the road haven't been great at all.

Do you reckon Schache, Trengove might play?

[westdog54]

Collingwood and Melbourne both remain absolutely gettable.

Adelaide will be frothing at the mouth after letting a Showdown slip through their fingers. This weekend will get ugly.

[bornadog]

Collingwood and Melbourne both remain absolutely gettable.

Adelaide will be frothing at the mouth after letting a Showdown slip through their fingers. This weekend will get ugly.

I voted wins in all but meant to put down Adelaide as a loss. I just hope we are competitive.

[1eyedog]

Collingwood and Melbourne both remain absolutely gettable.

Adelaide will be frothing at the mouth after letting a Showdown slip through their fingers. This weekend will get ugly.

I agree. I think we can go to the bye at 6/5 and this would be a fantastic result and should have us clearly believing we can scrape into the top 8.

[Eastdog]

I agree. I think we can go to the bye at 6/5 and this would be a fantastic result and should have us clearly believing we can scrape into the top 8.

6/5 would be a great result going into the bye. We have a young fairly inexperienced side and injuries but if we get some of the experience back in Morris, Dickson and Picken that will help the youngsters a lot.

[LostDoggy]

I agree. I think we can go to the bye at 6/5 and this would be a fantastic result and should have us clearly believing we can scrape into the top 8.

If we can get to half way 6-5 with good players returning/becoming available, it'll be a tremendous result. Even 5-6 would be good given the age and experience of teams we've been fielding.

[Cyberdoggie]

If we win the next 3 we will play finals for sure. 2 and we are a chance, any less and i'd say we are done for the year.
The Melbourne and Collingwood games are critical now. We are likely to be competing with Melbourne, North, Hawks, Pies, GWS and Port for the 5-8 spot, so wins against these teams are worth double.

[The Adelaide Connection]

*Updated after round 8

Our run:
Round 9 v Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval (6 day break)
Round 10 v Collingwood @ Etihad (7 day break)
Round 11 v Melbourne @ Etihad (8 day break)

Adelaide (4th, 5-3):
Form: LWWWL
Round 9 v Us @ Adelaide Oval (6 day break)

Injury List:

Won’t play:
Rory Sloane
Brodie Smith
Mitch McGovern
Brad Crouch
Paul Hunter
Andrew McPherson
Wayne Milera *Listed as 1 week, but have seen him listed as a test.

Test:
Taylor Walker (Glute)
Riley Knight (Hamstring)
Alex Keath (Ankle)
Sam Gibson (Hamstring)
Curtly Hampton (Adductor)
Kyle Hartigan (Hamstring)
Sam Jacobs (Back)

Significant key outs, would be very surprised to see Walker play (was at less than half rat power and is pretty banged up). Most likely will see Fogarty return (who is a genuine talent, but pretty inconsistent and is still building a tank). I think (hope) Adelaide have reached their tipping point.

I had us down for a loss here, but Adelaide’s depth is struggling and they certainly are gettable. McGovern normally tears us a new one and is a huge out. I put it down to karma for his dive and his and Adelaide’s dishonesty that resulted in Wood getting a week last year.

If we can win contested ball (which we should back ourselves to do with their current midfield) and convert our chances to put early scoreboard pressure on, my feeling is that they will fall apart like they did in the Collingwood game. Seeing that we likely won’t punish them on the scoreboard, I see this going down to the wire like our Sydney game.

Getting someone to play a negating role on Laird has got to be a priority.

Collingwood (10th, 4-4):
Round 9 v St. Kilda @ Etihad (6 day break)
Round 10 v Us @ Etihad (6 day break)

Melbourne (6th, 5-3):
Round 9 v Carlton @ The MCG (8 day break)
Round 10 v Adelaide @ Marrara (Darwin) (7 day break)
Round 11 v Us @ Etihad (6 day break)

[LostDoggy]

Looking forward at that list, we get a good break in being drawn Melbourne on a 6 day break after a Darwin game. We always seemed to struggle after a Darwin match, very sapping conditions. At Etihad, we should be able to take it to Melbourne.

[ReLoad]

Looking forward at that list, we get a good break in being drawn Melbourne on a 6 day break after a Darwin game. We always seemed to struggle after a Darwin match, very sapping conditions. At Etihad, we should be able to take it to Melbourne.

Id be incredibly disappointed if we didn't win that game, Melbourne are shocking at Etihad, and coming off that break against a tough opponent, we should really run over the top of them.

if we are serious about pushing for finals this year we need to win 2/3 games.

[Mantis]

Id be incredibly disappointed if we didn't win that game, Melbourne are shocking at Etihad, and coming off that break against a tough opponent, we should really run over the top of them.

if we are serious about pushing for finals this year we need to win 2/3 games.

Maybe in the past that was the case, but they have won 5 of their last 6 at ES.

[westdog54]

Maybe in the past that was the case, but they have won 5 of their last 6 at ES.

And absolutely took us to the cleaners last year.

[Eastdog]

And absolutely took us to the cleaners last year.

Yeah we need to be more competitive against them in 2 weeks compared to what we dished up last year. Very dissapointing performance that was.

[bornadog]

Of the 9 games to date we have played 7 non- Victorian clubs and travelled 3 times to lose 5 of the 7.

The run home, 13 games with 2 at the MCG, 8 at Etihad, 1 at Ballarat, 1 in Perth and 1 in Adelaide.

[Eastdog]

4-5 now after 9 rounds.

Our next 4

R10 v Pies at Etihad
R11 v Demons at Etihad
R12 Bye
R13 v Power at Adelaide Oval
R14 v Kangaroos at Etihad

[bulldogtragic]

4-5 now after 9 rounds.

Our next 4

R10 v Pies at Etihad
R11 v Demons at Etihad
R12 Bye
R13 v Power at Adelaide Oval
R14 v Kangaroos at Etihad

On current form, we lose them all. I hope for the best, but I'm expecting the worst is us to linger (ie poor skills, inability to kick goals etc).

[Eastdog]

On current form, we lose them all. I hope for the best, but I'm expecting the worst is us to linger (ie poor skills, inability to kick goals etc).

A tough few weeks now. If we can win 2 of those 4 that would put us 6-7 but winning 3 would put us 7-6. It will be a different game for us at Etihad next Friday.

[LostDoggy]

A tough few weeks now. If we can 2 of those 4 that would put us 6-7 but winning 3 would put us 7-6. It will be a different game for us at Etihad next Friday.
Too right Easty. SyKilda are leading Coll to half time at Eithad tonight. No reason at all we can't take it to them on Friday.

[Eastdog]

Too right Easty. SyKilda are leading Coll to half time at Eithad tonight. No reason at all we can't take it to them on Friday.

We have to believe we can still make the 8. Yes we have had some heavy losses but we have had some decent wins as well and could have been 5-4 had we got the Swans. The competition nowadays is close so we are still in it.

[Twodogs]

There are a couple of ifs and could ofs in that statement Easty. The fact is if we play with the sort of endevour we showed last night and don't kick 2.14, that we get a decent return for our effort, then we are going to win more than we lose.

[Eastdog]

There are a couple of ifs and could ofs in that statement Easty. The fact is if we play with the sort of endevour we showed last night and don't kick 2.14, that we get a decent return for our effort, then we are going to win more than we lose.

2.14 just not good enough. Everything can be right but if we don't get the goals nothing much will happen.

[Rocket Science]

4-5 now after 9 rounds.

Our next 4

R10 v Pies at Etihad
R11 v Demons at Etihad
R12 Bye
R13 v Power at Adelaide Oval
R14 v Kangaroos at Etihad

The way we're going we'll lose the bye as well.

[Twodogs]

The way we're going we'll lose the bye as well.

And we'll cop a few suspensions and injurys.

[Eastdog]

And we'll cop a few suspensions and injurys.

No injuries on Friday night I believe.

[Rocket Science]

No injuries on Friday night I believe.

Does injured pride count?

Two freakin goals. But the wheel will turn, or something, apparently.

[Eastdog]

Does injured pride count?

Two freakin goals. But the wheel will turn, or something, apparently.

I hope we can get over 100 points on Friday night.

[Eastdog]

The way we're going we'll lose the bye as well.

They are tough games for us but if we play with that intensity we have played this year in certain games (R3 v Bombers, R4 v Swans) will do alright if not then yes we could be in trouble.

[The Adelaide Connection]

Well, with a game in hand we have equaled about 55% of voters expectations and come up against a Melbourne team that is apparently the greatest team to have ever existed. They are so good that in their recent run they have been able to beat the following powerhouses (that must have all been unbeatable premiership favourites):

R6 Essendon (at the absolute depths of their terrible footy so far this year) by 36
R7 Saints by 39. By the way, are these guys tanking?
R8 Suns by 69. Called the Suns because by this stage of the year they had travelled to and from it 8 times
R9 Carlton by 1 million. Winning is hard with a salary cap for the poor old Blues.
R10 A super banged up, super cooked Adelaide by 91 in the Alice.

You can only beat who is in front of you and to their credit when they get going they like to do that “kick it through the middle sticks” thing that is a bit weird and foreign to us. I think it is those little targets their cheer squad hold up and I am not sure why our cheer squad haven’t got some sorted for our team yet.

It is worth remembering that prior to this incredibly soft run they got super smacked but the Hawks (by 69) and by the Tigers (who themselves weren’t in terribly good form) in performances that mirror our amazing first two rounds. Sure they probably come in to this game with a newfound confidence, but if we can play like we did against the Pies in the first quarter I think they will revert back to being St. Kilda levels of disappointing.

On the other hand, the ‘second half Bulldogs’ are the sort of rabble that they like to beat up on.

Interestingly, we mirror them statistically in almost every area. Such as:
Average disposals Us 390-391 Them
Disposal efficiency 72% apiece
Ave. Kicks 215-212
Ave. Handballs 174-178
Ave. Contested Marks 10-13
Marks inside 50 13-15
Ave. Clearances 37-40
Ave. Tackles 66-68
Ave Tackles inside 50 11-12
Ave. Inside 50’s 54-61

The stats that have a sizeable differential? Unsurprisingly:
Ave. Contested Possessions 142-164
Ave. Hit outs 25-53
Ave. Shots at goal 22-29
Ave. Inside 50 Efficiency 41% to 49%
Shooting accuracy 45% (18th) to 55% (2nd)

Melbourne will be weary from a 6 day break after pretty hot/humid conditions (even though they played witches hats for a good portion of the game) and there is a real opportunity to cause a huge upset. If we can generate a few more shots on goal and convert at even 50% we are a real chance in my optimistic opinion.

Out of interest, can anyone remember what our winning record was like in the week after playing in Darwin/Cairns?

[LostDoggy]

I don't have any stats to hand, but my recollection is that most teams have struggled the week after playing in Cairns or Darwin.

Not sure that will be a big factor today though sadly as the conditions at Alice Springs seemed a lot less tropical. It was about 18 degrees during the match and the players were running at full tilt late in the match.

I think Melbourne will be physically fine for today's game. Just hope that mentally they are getting a little ahead of themselves.

[GVGjr]

I don't have any stats to hand, but my recollection is that most teams have struggled the week after playing in Cairns or Darwin.

Not sure that will be a big factor today though sadly as the conditions at Alice Springs seemed a lot less tropical. It was about 18 degrees during the match and the players were running at full tilt late in the match.

I think Melbourne will be physically fine for today's game. Just hope that mentally they are getting a little ahead of themselves.

It's certainly been a a factor a lot of teams have used. 8 day break to their 6. Interstate travel and they are playing on our home ground which is a venue they haven't performed well at should give us at least a slight edge plus we have deemed Dale Morris ready to go.

[Twodogs]

I don't have any stats to hand, but my recollection is that most teams have struggled the week after playing in Cairns or Darwin.

Not sure that will be a big factor today though sadly as the conditions at Alice Springs seemed a lot less tropical. It was about 18 degrees during the match and the players were running at full tilt late in the match.

I think Melbourne will be physically fine for today's game. Just hope that mentally they are getting a little ahead of themselves.


It's a long time to be cooped up in a plane. Do Alice flights go through Darwin? (There's no need for them to but this is Australia!)

[LostDoggy]

It's a long time to be cooped up in a plane. Do Alice flights go through Darwin? (There's no need for them to but this is Australia!)

It's a direct flight of 2.5-3 hours, a little longer than Brisbane but less than Perth, Darwin or Cairns.

[Twodogs]

It's a direct flight of 2.5-3 hours, a little longer than Brisbane but less than Perth, Darwin or Cairns.

Bugger.

[azabob]

Can’t see how we win another game in 2018.

Worst skills and decision making I have seen from our club in a long long time.

No structure on any part of the ground.

Desire for contest and desire for the ball is severely lacking.

We are such an easy team to play against.

[bulldogtragic]

Can’t see how we win another game in 2018.

Worst skills and decision making I have seen from our club in a long long time.

No structure on any part of the ground.

Desire for contest and desire for the ball is severely lacking.

We are such an easy team to play against.

Imagine if GCS and Brisbane were only fractionally better. There'd be media calls about sacking Bevo with 2 wins to the bye. Unless there's a severe turnaround I've not seen anything decent from us to suggest you're not 100% bang on.

[SonofScray]

Bust.

Season was cooked at R2, almost salvaged at R8 and absolutely shot by the Bye.

Out of form. Out of puff. Out of ideas. We are in for a world of painin the second d half of the year. It'll put a massive dent in the confidence of our younger stars I fear.

[The Adelaide Connection]

Bust.

Season was cooked at R2, almost salvaged at R8 and absolutely shot by the Bye.

Out of form. Out of puff. Out of ideas. We are in for a world of painin the second d half of the year. It'll put a massive dent in the confidence of our younger stars I fear.

From here on in I won’t be losing sleep if we don’t win, but I hope the losses can be more of the Brisbane “honorable, just fell over at the end” style losses. I won’t hold my breath.

[Ozza]

From here on in I won’t be losing sleep if we don’t win, but I hope the losses can be more of the Brisbane “honorable, just fell over at the end” style losses. I won’t hold my breath.

I'd like to see us start to show a consistency about what we are trying to do out there. Consistency in so far as game style, and in players performing the same or similar roles week in week out. Particularly for the forwards to develop some cohesion.

We seem to change our approach each week, and often mid game.