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bulldogtragic
14-07-2018, 08:59 PM
I remember way back when, way back in 2016, that with our wins and losses people said we were better than a 7th finishing side and they were right. The mere wins and losses alone lacked context for where we were as a footy club then.

So now we look at the quantitive wins and losses again, and some may say according to the ladder we are fifth last. Some may argue that we've had bad luck, more bad luck (which is what injuries are) and other ladder results not go our way. There's no doubting that injuries have devastated us this year, and it's exposed poor list management which had hurt us even more.

So are we really just a poor performing side in light of the above, or should some more serious alarm bells be going off? Because if we are to be like Mitch Wallis and be of sufficient qualitative and quantitive sheen, we need to look at context. The GCS were leading half way through the last quarter in Round 7, a depleted young GCS, and we fell across the line to win by 9. Harry Taylor had a shot after the game to win it for them, after they too led in the last quarter. If we for a moment just think that these two narrow results went the other way, we would currently sit in 17th position, just two games above Carlton with the same very poor percentage.

This isn't a negative or doom and gloom thread or position, but rather trying to look at how we are trending across the year beyond just the recorded wins and losses. I think there's an argument to say we were going to finish about 9th again and injuries have slid us down the ladder. And that holds up without much scrutiny. But not for two get out of jail results, that argument doesn't fully explain why we could lay claim to being in the same class of year like Carlton. And the only reason we are not is because of Harry Taylor & some GCS kids.

Injuries is a big reason, the form we can show for large parts of games also camouflages where we are at, and yes it's 'if my Aunty had balls she'd be my uncle' spitballing hypothetical. But if you just follow the line of thinking about what could've been, what would the supporter base and media be saying generally about our coaching, players, conditioning, list management, tactics, non ruck strategy etc, etc. I think for all the negative media attention we've gotten, we've gotten off lightly. I'd hate to think those entrusted with resurrecting the club's onfield fortunes are just writing off injuries as bad luck and inevitable as the main reason and things will turn themselves around. There's much to be thankful for, namely Richards, Naughton, Schache, Gowers, Lipinski, English, Williams and even Crozier & Suckling etc. So it's not doom and gloom. But we've gone from top of the ladder (by winning the flag) to nearly 17th on the ladder in just a mere 38 games and I don't think injuries are solely to blame. If we are looking at what's behind the wins/losses, I think there's more warnings to learn from heading into next year to turn things around. I hope we just don't brush our hands with the injuries card, because as horrible as its been, it can't solely be the reason we are now playing like a 17th side not even two full seasons on from a flag. I for one would love to know what the club thinks it is all together and how they're going fix it.

Sedat
14-07-2018, 10:44 PM
The GC game was Labrador vs Footscray - we had a heap out as well that day. Also we botched wins against Sydney and Norf that we should have iced with a modicum of composure and sound decision making in the last minute of each game.

Great thread otherwise. We have some very interesting decisions to make with regard to list management at the end of this season that will dictate to us the direction of the next 5+ years.

Sedat
15-07-2018, 10:46 AM
I think we need to add some quantitative data to our qualitative sheen. Have a look at our 2nd halves since we were 4-4 at the start of Round 9:

R9: 1.7-6.6 (-29)
R10: 0.4-8.9 (-53)
R11: 3.3-8.6 (-33)
R12: Bye
R13: 7.4-12.6 (-32)
R14: 5.6-9.2 (-20)
R15: 7.3-7.7 (-4)
R16: 2.1-12.6 (-65)
R17: 4.3-12.2 (-47)

Total -283 (average 6 goal loss every 2nd half), and we were also were in front in four of these games.

Yes we are young and yes we have injuries, but how are we so noncompetitive in 2nd halves over such a long sample size? And how have we not been able to find a single way to halt opposition momentum over the course of 2 months (except the Geelong game)?

Is it game style or coaching tactics, or is it poor physical preparation from our fitness & conditioning staff? Either way it is a massive concern.

DOG GOD
15-07-2018, 10:51 AM
Great post Bulldogtragic,

Yes injuries have devastated us over the last 2 years, and mainly to our key players so to speak. It’s given us a chance to play the kids sooner than later, which can only make us a better side in the next few years to come.

However, after seeing what we dished up after our premiership year, things started to rear it’s ugly head.

The ego of the MC came to fruition. The cockiness of changing around the coaches just for the sake of it, to me, was the first major error. Coming off a premiership, this should have remained the same, and allowed the coaches to maintain, and even further develop their strategies with their playing group. The belief was there. The understanding was there and it would’ve been a natural progression. But nope, the MC decided to completely change the coaches around (for coach development or whatever), but this did nothing for the player development and understanding of the game plan.

We didn’t cut enough into the list and saw mediocre players remain on the list...this has now transformed into an unbalanced list, in much need of an overhaul, which we will hopefully see end of year.

Regarding our game plan, the 3rd man up rule in ruck contests was a big winner in the way we went about our style etc. the changing of this rule certainly brought us back to the fold with other teams. We went from the hunter to the hunted and we had and continue to have, no answer for this. This year we have been like a deer in headlights when the pressure has gotten to the highest level. We’ve had no answer to slowing the barrage against us. It’s like we have “pedal to the metal” play, and when we turn it over, it’s over.

I also thought that getting rid of stringer was the cure for our cancer within the club, but now I’m not so sure. Players like Biggs, Dahl, Libba have really struggled to get anywhere near the 2016 form, and that concerns me that their is a culture at the club. The club certainly went into party mode after the GF and I can understand that, but these are professional footballers being paid a crap load of $$$ and need to bring that professionalism into their workplace. I feel this is not the case with a chosen few. I’m hopeful anyone involved in this aspect of the club finds their way out.

For me, 2019 will be a year to watch. I’m hoping for a lot of improvement on and off the field. I’m looking for a shakeup in our conditioning staff and MC. I’m looking fwd to seeing young West in our colours and hopefully welcoming a superstar in the making with our first pick in the draft. I’m also hoping we at least shell 8-9 players from a list that needs invigorated.

bulldogtragic
15-07-2018, 10:59 AM
I think we need to add some quantitative data to our qualitative sheen. Have a look at our 2nd halves since we were 4-4 at the start of Round 9:

R9- 1.7-6.6 (-29)
R10-0.4-8.9 (-53)
R11-3.3-8.6 (-33)
R12-Bye
R13- 7.4-12.6 (-32)
R14-5.6-9.2 (-20)
R15-7.3-7.7 (-4)
R16-2.1-12.6 (-65)
R17-4.3-12.2 (-47)

Total -283 (average 6 goal loss every 2nd half), and we were also were in front in four of these games.

Yes we are young and yes we have injuries, but how are we so noncompetitive in 2nd halves over such a long sample size? And how have we not been able to find a single way to halt opposition momentum over the course of 2 months (except the Geelong game)?

On the coverage, they said we are ranked 18th for this stat this season. Pretty sure we are still ranked 18th for goal kicking accuracy too. I'm far from a coach, but I don't understand how after half time the opposition coach shuts down our first half major ball winner (recently Crozier, JJ & Macrae), and we don't have a plan B. Also, how do the players come out after half time looking completely different footballers in a lot of these matches? I'd be interesting to know why. Whether the players can't execute the gameplan for 4 quarters or otherwise. I agree, things are a lot worse than just youth or injuries which are legit points. I'm not sure how Bevo and the players turn it around this year or next year, because like poor goal kicking, that's a multi-season problem.