Second Half Fade Outs 2018

[The Doctor]

After 18 rounds this season this is how our 2nd half scores look

3.5.23 to 9.9.63 (-40) vs GWS away. Trailed at HT by 42. Lost by 82
6.10.46 to 9.4.58 (-12) vs WCE home. Trailed at HT by 39. Lost by 51
6.10.46 to 6.5.41 (+5) vs ESS home. Led HT by by 16. Won by 21
4.6.30 to 7.5.47 (-17) vs SYD home. Led HT by 10. Lost by 7
5.3.33 to 10.9.69 (-36) vs FREO away. Trailed at HT by 18. Lost by 54
4.6.30 to 4.8.32 (-2) vs CARL home. Led HT by 23. Won by 21
6.10.46 to 5.3.33 (+13) vs GCS home. Trailed at HT by 4. Won by 9
7.6.48 to 8.4.52 (-4) vs BRIS home. Led HT by 18. Won by 14
1.7.13 to 6.6.42 (-29) vs ADEL away. Trailed at HT by 8. Lost by 37
0.4.04 to 8.9.57 (-53) vs COLL away. Led HT by 18. Lost by 35
3.5.23 to 8.6.54 (-31) vs MELB home. Trailed at HT by 16. Lost by 49
7.4.46 to 12.6.78 (-32) vs PORT away. Trailed at HT by 25. Lost by 57
5.6.36 to 9.2.56 (-20) vs NTH home. Led HT by 18. Lost by 2
7.3.45 to 7.7.49 (-4) vs Geel home. Led HT by 6. Won by 2
2.1.13 to 12.6.78 (-65) vs HAW home. Led HT by 2. Lost by 63
4.3.27 to 12.2.74 (-47) vs MELB away. Trailed at HT by 3. Lost by 50
3.5.23 to 6.7.43 (-20 vs WCE away. Trailed at HT by 34. Lost by 54

The Facts

- We have lost 16/18 second halves
- We lost 10 2nd Halves by 20 points or more
- Our average margin in 2nd halves is -22 compared to average margin in 1st half is -4.
- Our highest 2nd half total is 48 points. The opposition have scored more than that 11 times
- On 9 occasions we scored 4 goals or less in the 2nd half
- We have lost 4 games when leading at half time
- We have won 4 games when leading at half time but by reduced margins
- Only once have we won a game by a greater margin than at half time (ESS)
- Only once have we won when trailing at half time (GCS)
- On 12 occasions we have scored less than we did in the 1st half


The Questions

We don't run out games very well. Are we fit enough?

[Topdog]

They had a stat on the TV last week that our 3rd quarters are the worst in the league I believe.

[whythelongface]

The Questions

We don't run out games very well. Are we fit enough?

We field a very young team week in/ week out who do not have the endurance base as yet to run games out. This endurance base takes a few years to develop, hence the team really struggle to stay in the game at the back end of the game. There are no doubt other contributing factors (decision making etc), however this would be one of the main factors for these fade outs. I would suggest that the lack of endurance directly impacts on our decision making as well.

[Mofra]

We field a very young team week in/ week out who do not have the endurance base as yet to run games out. This endurance base takes a few years to develop, hence the team really struggle to stay in the game at the back end of the game. There are no doubt other contributing factors (decision making etc), however this would be one of the main factors for these fade outs. I would suggest that the lack of endurance directly impacts on our decision making as well.
All contribute - I'd say our lack of mids / running players has an impact too,. We've been forced to play more talls given our injury list and performers at VFL level who won't be able to run out games as well as mids and natural runners.

[bornadog]

We field a very young team week in/ week out who do not have the endurance base as yet to run games out. This endurance base takes a few years to develop, hence the team really struggle to stay in the game at the back end of the game. There are no doubt other contributing factors (decision making etc), however this would be one of the main factors for these fade outs. I would suggest that the lack of endurance directly impacts on our decision making as well.

At least 10 players a week are 50 games or less, and most of those are actually less than 30, and some games we played 7 below 10 games.

[Topdog]

Yeah I hate to simply say it is due to the age of our squad but I'm struggling to think of anything else. I do think that Mofra has made a good call out in a lack of a specifc type (runners) in our team.

[bornadog]

Yeah I hate to simply say it is due to the age of our squad but I'm struggling to think of anything else. I do think that Mofra has made a good call out in a lack of a specifc type (runners) in our team.

Can we point the finger to the Fitness and conditioning team?

[Twodogs]

Can we point the figureto the Fitness and conditioning team?

Finger. Bloody autocorrect!

[Go_Dogs]

Good analysis Doc.

I feel the comments around us being a young side, and often a young side short on runners because of our injury woes, provide a reasonable explanation, particularly for the latter part of the year. Hopefully we have the right programs in place and have drafted the right young players with scope to develop their aerobic ability.

[Doc26]

The first part of Macca’s coaching period also saw a young list fade out consistently in second halves.

This season most is explained by the extent of injuries to some key bigger body experienced players such as Picken, Libba, Wood, Dickson even Lin and Clay, Bont carrying something (hip) all season, other key players out for decent chunks of the season e.g Moz, Adams, Macrae, a big drop off in form from Roughy, and TBoyd, Bailey Dale and Caleb Daniel all stalling with their development, Wally’s indifferent first half, JJ generally just travelling and it’s not too hard to see why we’ve gone south.

I can only think of 4 players, Maclean, Macrae, Cordy, and Suckling (pre Achilles) who have been consistent performers, Hunter and Dunks at times, with very encouraging signs from our youth in Williams, Naughton, Richards, Schache, Lynch, English and Billy

[GVGjr]

Doc, I'd add Williams to both the consistent performers and the encouraging younger players you have listed.
He's made some real progress this year

[Doc26]

Doc, I'd add Williams to both the consistent performers and the encouraging younger players you have listed.
He's made some real progress this year

Yes that’s pretty fair. Bailey has helped to fill the large gap left by MBoyd and Bob.

I notice that I’ve left out Dahl in the assessment. He’s probably like JJ, largely just travelling but with such sub standard disposal by foot. He’s a list quandary. I imagine we will be having to pay overs to keep him.

How would you assess Hunter’s season?

[GVGjr]

Yes that’s pretty fair. Bailey has helped to fill the large gap left by MBoyd and Bob.

How would you assess Hunter’s season?

He's plateaued, he has developed an annoying habit of spinning the football before he makes up his mind where he wants to kick it.
He's still a good player but I expected more from him this season.

[Doc26]

He's plateaued, he has developed an annoying habit of spinning the football before he makes up his mind where he wants to kick it.
He's still a good player but I expected more from him this season.

Yes Lachie has plateaued. My expectation with Lachie is that with maturity that he would’ve become a more damaging user of the ball. This with his elite endurance would take him up a level. In this respect I to would’ve expected greater things from him this season.

[Twodogs]

He's plateaued, he has developed an annoying habit of spinning the football before he makes up his mind where he wants to kick it.
He's still a good player but I expected more from him this season.


Doug Bigelow would have snarled "Lairising" every time Lochie span the ball like that and he would have been right. Doug hated lairs and I'm starting to see his point,

[Ghost Dog]

Doc, I'd add Williams to both the consistent performers and the encouraging younger players you have listed.
He's made some real progress this year

I've been surprised as well. One silver lining on having so many damn injuries this season. Gives others a look-in.

[Greystache]

I'm not worried. Second halves are like goal kicking, injuries, and recruiting, just luck. When our luck improves our second halves will. Till then we'll just have to accept we're 10 goals unluckier than the opposition in the second half every week.

[bulldogtragic]

I'm not worried. Second halves are like goal kicking, injuries, and recruiting, just luck. When our luck improves our second halves will. Till then we'll just have to accept we're 10 goals unluckier than the opposition in the second half every week.

Are no goal, or one goal halves of footy a luck thing too? I think so.

[Greystache]

Are no goal, or one goal halves of footy a luck thing too? I think so.

I'd think so. If we had more luck we'd have kicked more goals every week.

[bulldogtragic]

I'd think so. If we had more luck we'd have kicked more goals every week.

If didn't have so much bad luck we'd have no luck at all.

[Nuggety Back Pocket]

Yes Lachie has plateaued. My expectation with Lachie is that with maturity that he would’ve become a more damaging user of the ball. This with his elite endurance would take him up a level. In this respect I to would’ve expected greater things from him this season.
Hunter clearly lacks pace and skill compared to similar size players in stronger teams. Wins plenty of the ball but like a number of our players has poor disposal.

[boydogs]

Hunter clearly lacks pace

Nah don't agree

[Sedat]

Are no goal, or one goal halves of footy a luck thing too? I think so.
We'd be a killer AFLX team - 60 min matches are our specialty

[bulldogsthru&thru]

We'd be a killer AFLX team - 60 min matches are our specialty

Sadly we weren't any good at that either.

[bulldogtragic]

We'd be a killer AFLX team - 60 min matches are our specialty

Maybe AFELX is the real reason for the bad year. We haven’t adapted back.

[Eastdog]

Same old same old yesterday.

[Sedat]

Maybe AFELX is the real reason for the bad year.
AFELX is an anagram of AXEL F. It's getting late...

[BulldogBelle]

Put the VFL last halves up for the year and compare those with the first half. What conclusions can you then draw?

[bornadog]

Put the VFL last halves up for the year and compare those with the first half. What conclusions can you then draw?

What's your conclusion?

[Sedat]

What's your conclusion?
I suspect our appalling 2nd halves at AFL level is being replicated at VFL level, which then potentially makes it an overall fitness and conditioning program problem.

[Topdog]

I suspect our appalling 2nd halves at AFL level is being replicated at VFL level, which then potentially makes it an overall fitness and conditioning program problem.

Is it though? I really hate these requests for people to check something based on nothing.

If James has actually seen a correlation come out and say it instead of cryptic BS.

Last few weeks have been painful.

[Sedat]

Is it though? I really hate these requests for people to check something based on nothing.

If James has actually seen a correlation come out and say it instead of cryptic BS.

Last few weeks have been painful.
Our 2nd half fade-outs certainly have been a trend in the last few weeks in the VFL, so I was making the assumption that JC was alluding to this in his post and making a case that our fitness and conditioning program is responsible for this list-wide trend.

[Mofra]

Yes Lachie has plateaued. My expectation with Lachie is that with maturity that he would’ve become a more damaging user of the ball. This with his elite endurance would take him up a level. In this respect I to would’ve expected greater things from him this season.
It was noticeable after halftime on Sunday that Hunter's first reaction was to go backwards with the ball, by hand or foot. In the first half he'd look forward and seemed to be twice the player.
It's a shame because he's elite when it comes to finding the ball. He only needs to be a little more damaging with it to be a much more effective player.

[bulldogsthru&thru]

I saw a stat that this year we have had 13 of the 20 youngest sides fielded in the comp this year. Unfortunately they were mostly in the first half of the year but nevertheless, and Richards and Naughton are proof of this, the young kids would be gassed right now.

[The bulldog tragician]

I saw a stat that this year we have had 13 of the 20 youngest sides fielded in the comp this year. Unfortunately they were mostly in the first half of the year but nevertheless, and Richards and Naughton are proof of this, the young kids would be gassed right now.

If we haven’t been the youngest we’ve been the second youngest, and that’s with Dale Morris’ return skewing the stats. The second half efforts have reflected the young profile and the fact that the lower quality players that are being given games because of our injury list just are not able to step up when the game is there to be won. I’m not sure our fitness and conditioning has been top notch either.

[MrMahatma]

Were young and that explains fade outs.

The way we play, the lack of skills, the positioning of players this year, that’s not to do with youth.

[Rocket Science]

I saw a stat that this year we have had 13 of the 20 youngest sides fielded in the comp this year. Unfortunately they were mostly in the first half of the year but nevertheless, and Richards and Naughton are proof of this, the young kids would be gassed right now.

Twelve of the twenty youngest sides fielded according to this. (https://twitter.com/sgtbutane/status/1023795812281634816?s=21)

https://preview.ibb.co/jDyKJo/IMG_6948.jpg (https://ibb.co/iBFc4T)

I wonder if there are corresponding figures available for week-to-week selection continuity, or in our case lack thereof.

[Sedat]

Twelve of the twenty youngest sides fielded according to this. (https://twitter.com/sgtbutane/status/1023795812281634816?s=21)

https://preview.ibb.co/jDyKJo/IMG_6948.jpg (https://ibb.co/iBFc4T)

I wonder if there are corresponding figures available for week-to-week selection continuity, or in our case lack thereof.
Of the first 8 of our teams on that list we won 5 and lost 3 (including a close loss to Sydney). From memory in that R7 match against Gold Coast we didn't have a single person over 100 games in the 22.

So the youth excuse really doesn't fly for our last month of 'worst in the competition' footy.

[Bulldog Joe]

Of the first 8 of our teams on that list we won 5 and lost 3 (including a close loss to Sydney). From memory in that R7 match against Gold Coast we didn't have a single person over 100 games in the 22.

So the youth excuse really doesn't fly for our last month of 'worst in the competition' footy.

Just looking at the side in isolation like that is not as clear cut.

If we compare to the opposition on any game, you would find our experience profile is close to 50 games less for all those losses apart from Melbourne, where it was a mere 28.

That month only includes one of the games in the list of 20 (Hawthorn), but the teams against West Coast and Port were seriously impacted by lack of comparative experience.

Conversely the win over Gold Coast (Rd 7) with our youngest side, was against a side that was also a very young team suffering from a dreadful fixture, that had them travelling all over the country.

[Mofra]

I saw a stat that this year we have had 13 of the 20 youngest sides fielded in the comp this year. Unfortunately they were mostly in the first half of the year but nevertheless, and Richards and Naughton are proof of this, the young kids would be gassed right now.
Richards had 5 touches on the weekend, he is totally gassed. Light body, has performed well above expectations.

Naughton had 2 of our 6 contested marks on the weekend. Kid is just a jet, after a few pre-seasons he will be our (WCE version) McGovern.

[Mofra]

So the youth excuse really doesn't fly for our last month of 'worst in the competition' footy.
Given it's later in the year they're cooked, senior players talk about 'the grind' of the season that starts in July when everything is a struggle and football stops being fun.
Without the body of work that pre-seasons provide it's no wonder our kids are not performing, leaving the senior bodies to take up more slack which by sheer workload they are struggling to do.

I just don't see a light at the end of the tunnel for this year, and hope we bring in a senior player or two this trade/draft period.

[bornadog]

Richards had 5 touches on the weekend, he is totally gassed. Light body, has performed well above expectations.

Naughton had 2 of our 6 contested marks on the weekend. Kid is just a jet, after a few pre-seasons he will be our (WCE version) McGovern.

Lippa came in fresh had 11 disposals to half time then hardly touched it in the 2nd half

[Sedat]

Given it's later in the year they're cooked, senior players talk about 'the grind' of the season that starts in July when everything is a struggle and football stops being fun.
Without the body of work that pre-seasons provide it's no wonder our kids are not performing, leaving the senior bodies to take up more slack which by sheer workload they are struggling to do.

I just don't see a light at the end of the tunnel for this year, and hope we bring in a senior player or two this trade/draft period.
I would expect us to have a drop-off with the season shot, but our 2nd half issues are a chronic problem that speaks to a far wider issue than simply the tail end of a long season. This trend started in R9 and has continued unabated for 3 months.

Ed has been cooked for a month - not sure playing him every week in crushing losses is doing anything at all for his long-term development. He needs a week off (needed it a month ago), and we could have given someone like Porter a taste. We also have Jong cracking walnuts in the twos, who could either command a new contract or give potential suitors a good look and potentially drive his value up.

We've also had baffling selected teams pretty much all year - against Brisbane in R8 at Etihad we had Boyd rucking and nobody else to support and then the following week in a flood we had 3 rucks. On the weekend we had 4 key defenders in atrocious conditions (didn't help of course with Dixon tearing us a new one) and bugger-all running power and depth. We've chopped and changed player positions all season - JJ cops a lot of flak but he's not a forward's backside, and the less said about the Easton Wood up forward experiment the better. Bont forward for large periods while we have no midfield depth is a luxury we can't afford due to lopsided list management the last 3 years.

2018 has been a mess on so many fronts, and most of it has been self-inflicted. I think we will all be watching the club very closely at the end of the season to see the leadership response.

[bulldogsthru&thru]

I would expect us to have a drop-off with the season shot, but our 2nd half issues are a chronic problem that speaks to a far wider issue than simply the tail end of a long season. This trend started in R9 and has continued unabated for 3 months.

Ed has been cooked for a month - not sure playing him every week in crushing losses is doing anything at all for his long-term development. He needs a week off (needed it a month ago), and we could have given someone like Porter a taste. We also have Jong cracking walnuts in the twos, who could either command a new contract or give potential suitors a good look and potentially drive his value up.

We've also had baffling selected teams pretty much all year - against Brisbane in R8 at Etihad we had Boyd rucking and nobody else to support and then the following week in a flood we had 3 rucks. On the weekend we had 4 key defenders in atrocious conditions (didn't help of course with Dixon tearing us a new one) and bugger-all running power and depth. We've chopped and changed player positions all season - JJ cops a lot of flak but he's not a forward's backside, and the less said about the Easton Wood up forward experiment the better. Bont forward for large periods while we have no midfield depth is a luxury we can't afford due to lopsided list management the last 3 years.

2018 has been a mess on so many fronts, and most of it has been self-inflicted. I think we will all be watching the club very closely at the end of the season to see the leadership response.

Agreed. I'm not saying inexperience is the reason, just that it's a contributing factor. I'm deeply concerned with the performances and coaching decisions i've seen this year. In all honesty you would actually think we are trying to land a certain player in the draft. I don't think we are, but that's how shambolic it appears right now.

[BulldogBelle]

What's your conclusion?

The VFL side started fading badly in the last half some weeks before the AFL side and they continue to fade badly.

I think that the reason is lack of talent. The injury list and the failure to delist sub-standard players is the major cause.

Maybe somewhat due also to the lack of an inspirational speech by the coach.

[Rocket Science]

While many might share the same employer is it really all that instructive to reach for conclusions from the fates of two separate teams competing in two separate competitions?

We're the victim of several inescapable facts:

We know our list is horribly unbalanced.
We know our list is extremely young.
We know we've been relentlessly belted by injuries.

Apply that to any mob and the outcome writes itself.

We also know most but a handful on our list have stagnated or regressed individually. There are all the ingredients for the shite sandwich we're currently munching on.

Granted much of it's self-inflicted, so the pressure's justifiably on those concerned to replace the shite with something more palatable. And of course we want answers, the slide's been dire, demoralising and confounding, but the only answers we're really likely to accept are on-field ones. And that means we're just going to have to dip back into our bottomless well of patience.

[Topdog]

Our 2nd half fade-outs certainly have been a trend in the last few weeks in the VFL, so I was making the assumption that JC was alluding to this in his post and making a case that our fitness and conditioning program is responsible for this list-wide trend.

We have 17 out, 10 of which i would say are best 22. That would have a flow on effect to VFL so probably not overly surprising IMO.

[bornadog]

We have 17 out, 10 of which i would say are best 22. That would have a flow on effect to VFL so probably not overly surprising IMO.

Nah easier to blame coach, MC, Barrett etc etc :D

[Greystache]

Nah easier to blame coach, MC, Barrett etc etc :D

So the club knows best and it's just bad luck?

Would make a good signature.

[bornadog]

So the club knows best and it's just bad luck?

Would make a good signature.
Whatever