Rating our Midfielders

[GVGjr]

With all the speculation that the likes of Shiel and Gaff could be heading back to Victoria I'm interested in hearing two things:
1) In what order does everyone rates our midfielders for next year?
2) If we were to land either Shiel or Gaff where would they fit into that order?

Ie if you rated Liberatore, Macrae, Bontempelli, McLean and Dahlhaus as 1 to 5, where would Shiel or Gaff fit in that order?

[EasternWest]

Macrae
Bontempelli
Shiel/Gaff
Anyone else.

[Bulldog Joe]

I would see Gaff more like Hunter than our other midfielders, while Shiel would rate pretty close to Macrae.

Bont is in a category of his own and Liberatore would be the clearance specialist.

[comrade]

1. Bont
2. Shiel
3. Macrae
4. McLean
5. Libba
6. Hunter

The only reason I wouldn't throw the sink at Shiel is if we thought we were a very good chance at luring Kelly the following year. But if Kelly is a pipe dream, I would go ALL IN on Shiel. Would improve us massively overnight.

[Happy Days]

I've got Bont and Macrae ahead of Shiel. Shiel is the 4th best mid on the Giants so we couldn't expect anything more than what he's producing now, and to be honest I think he gets a bit Jaeger O'Meara'd because he glides instead of runs, and looks like he was sculpted out of granite and made sentient to win Brownlows - his actual output isn't on the same level and Jack and Bont.

He'd be around the mark with McLean, probably slightly ahead but also three years older.

[GVGjr]

Macrae
Bontempelli
Shiel/Gaff
Anyone else.

All ahead of Liberatore?

[The Doctor]

All ahead of Liberatore?

Libba is number 1 and in my view our most important player. Injuries & 2017 hangover makes my case difficult to defend. But at his best he is the best. Not just at the club but in the comp.

[comrade]

Libba is number 1 and in my view our most important player. Injuries & 2017 hangover makes my case difficult to defend. But at his best he is the best. Not just at the club but in the comp.

I’m factoring in the 2 ACLs. Unfortunately, I think we’ve seen the absolute best of Libba. He may still be a very good player but the ACLs have robbed us of an elite, generational type inside mid.

[MrMahatma]

I’m factoring in the 2 ACLs. Unfortunately, I think we’ve seen the absolute best of Libba. He may still be a very good player but the ACLs have robbed us of an elite, generational type inside mid.


Dunno. Shouldn’t impact body positioning hugely, and hands and smarts are unimpaired. If he relied on breaking tackles all the time the. Maybe. I reckon he’ll get back to his best.

[boydogs]

Bont
Macrae
Shiel
McLean
Hunter
Gaff
Dahlhaus

Supported club bias maybe but our midfield is elite and the reason we were able to win the flag with a cobbled together forward line and VFL standard talls

[GVGjr]

Based on the samples so far in the thread neither Gaff or Shiel are regarded as massive upgrades on our core Liberatore, Bontempelli, Macrae and McLean group and Dahlhaus is regarded as not much more than a depth player.
Because he is a FA and that many clubs are chasing him, Gaff wont come cheap in terms of dollars..
Shiel will cost us at least pick 5 which is a reasonable outcome but GWS might want more
Dahlhaus wants a long term deal at big money and I suppose that raises the question if can we afford to do that for a player not projected as a top 4 midfielder for us next season?

[Webby]

I’m factoring in the 2 ACLs. Unfortunately, I think we’ve seen the absolute best of Libba. He may still be a very good player but the ACLs have robbed us of an elite, generational type inside mid.

This might seem silly, but I take some comfort from the fact that Libba's two ACL's have been done in either knee. By this, I mean that it's not a recurring, chronic type of injury - like the David Schwartz.

They say that when a knee is reconstructed, it's actually stronger than before. So long as he doesn't re-rupture the same knee twice, he'll play 250 games. The other thing is that, with the footy he's missed, he isn't racking up miles on the clock. I'm optimistic re Libba.

Geez he was good in that prelim..! Put him into that now developed midfield and we're incredibly hard to beat for contested possessions and clearances..!

[SlimPickens]

They say that when a knee is reconstructed, it's actually stronger than before. So long as he doesn't re-rupture the same knee twice, he'll play 250 games. The other thing is that, with the footy he's missed, he isn't racking up miles on the clock. I'm optimistic re Libba..!

Unfortunately the evidence doesn’t back up this statement. The rate of re-injury of a reconstructed knee is far greater.

[Webby]

Unfortunately the evidence doesn’t back up this statement. The rate of re-injury of a reconstructed knee is far greater.

Greater than what?
A non-reconstructed knee?

If so, i don’t believe that’s accurate, mate.

[EasternWest]

All ahead of Liberatore?

At this time, yes. Question marks on Libba's longevity. Plus it depends on what shape he comes back in. He was in terrific shape this year, but if we get 2017 Libba....

[whythelongface]

It is a very difficult trying to rate our midfielders against each other as each has such unique talents. For mine Macrae is no. 1 as he is (and Libba) are really our only out and out midfielders ie. they don't spend time anywhere else on the field. If it was based purely on skill and impact then Bont would be #1 but for mine the workrate of Macrae and Libba are critical.

I rate Gaff highly but not higher than our top 3 of Macrae/ Libba and Bont. Shiel is also a very good player but not sure if he would be in our top 5 if Gaff is included.

1/ Macrae
2/ Libba
3/ Bont
4/ Gaff
5/ Maclean
6/ Shiel
7/ Wallis
8/ Dahlhaus

Wally and Dahl are rated lower predominantly as they spend a fair bit of time forward.

What i do like about this midfield line up is the age bracket they are between 22 and 26 and have a good few years left. If we can nab either Gaff or Shiel it really provides some firepower in the midfield for the next few years. We need a couple of the younger guys to develop - ie. Williams, Lynch, Gowers - as well as grab a quality midfielder in this year's draft.

I haven't included Hunter in this exercise as i see him more as a wingman and a link player but he is critical to the make up of the team and would be in the top 5 in the above list - ahead of Maclean.

[soupman]

Are people serious? Gaff and Shiel both sit comfortably in the top bracket with Macrae and Bont. Order fluctuates with form.

Libba could/should be pushing up into that group, but doesn't tear games apart in the same fashion as some and his form for the last couple of years (obviously he also did his knee) has been no where near their output.

The next tier is Hunter and McLean, again order changes although I'd argue Hunter has a better body of work and his better games far exceed Mcleans better games.

Dahlhaus and Wallis both sit another tier down as frustrating mids with limitations.

Atm something like this:
Gaff and Macraetop for pure output.
Bont next, would be top but is playing as a forward too much.
Shiel next, but all of these are interchangeable week to week.

Hunter then Mclean probably next, Libba in 7th purely from no form this year and an underwhelming 2017.

Williams and Dunkley next.

Then Dahl and Wallis on current form, although Dahl should be in the Hunter/Mclean grouping.

[GVGjr]

Just remember, I'm asking you to project where you think the midfield players would be rated for the 2019 season.
I don't think you should underrate Bontempelli just because he does play forward as well
Just a suggestion but try and have a look at who would make the most influence when they're playing in the midfield.

[SlimPickens]

Greater than what?
A non-reconstructed knee?

If so, i don’t believe that’s accurate, mate.

The likelihood of Libba re-doing his ACL is about 6 times higher than someone who hasn’t previously done an ACL. So to imply that the grafted knee is stronger once it’s reconstructed, compared to a persons normal anatomy (pre-injury) is wrong.

http://sportsmetrics.org/published-rates-of-reinjury-after-acl-reconstruction-show-need-for-advanced-neuromuscular-retraining/

[bornadog]

A Graders - Bont, Macrae, Gaff and Shiel

Potential A Grade - Libba (was A grade, but let's see in 2019), Hunter, (tempted to put him in A Grader), Mclean, Dahl (but his kicking would have to improve to get there)

On the improve - Dunkley, has been fantastic last few weeks as a mid, Williams

[Axe Man]

Agree with soupaman's take. Some overrating of Libba and underrating of Shiel and Gaff going on in my opinion.

[GVGjr]

A Graders - Bont, Macrae, Gaff and Shiel

Potential A Grade - Libba (was A grade, but let's see in 2019), Hunter, (tempted to put him in A Grader), Mclean, Dahl (but his kicking would have to improve to get there)

On the improve - Dunkley, has been fantastic last few weeks as a mid, Williams

Im interested to hear how you get to the point of rating Dahlhaus as a potential A grader next year given his performances over the last 2 years?

Are we all underating Hunter?

[boydogs]

Are people serious? Gaff and Shiel both sit comfortably in the top bracket with Macrae and Bont. Order fluctuates with form

Hunter and Gaff match up pretty well

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_player_compare?playerStatus1=A&tid1=19&playerStatus2=A&tid2=8&type=A&pid1=3450&pid2=3842&fid1=S&fid2=S

[Twodogs]

Hunter and Gaff match up pretty well

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_player_compare?playerStatus1=A&tid1=19&playerStatus2=A&tid2=8&type=A&pid1=3450&pid2=3842&fid1=S&fid2=S

It's neck and neck on most counts.

[bornadog]

Im interested to hear how you get to the point of rating Dahlhaus as a potential A grader next year given his performances over the last 2 years?

Are we all underating Hunter?

I always think Dahl has that potential, but fulfilling it is another thing.

I think Hunter will be an A grader next year, but at the moment, I have him under potential. He certainly is closer to A grader than Dahl or Mclean. On Mclean, he is another that has to improve his delivery of the ball, he is a shocker sometimes and it is holding him back.

[GVGjr]

I always think Dahl has that potential, but fulfilling it is another thing.

I think Hunter will be an A grader next year, but at the moment, I have him under potential. He certainly is closer to A grader than Dahl or Mclean. On Mclean, he is another that has to improve his delivery of the ball, he is a shocker sometimes and it is holding him back.

So where are you actually projecting Dahlhaus in the ratings for next year as a midfielder?
Which players are ahead of him and who is he ahead of?

[Go_Dogs]

On potential and at their best:-

Bontempelli
Liberatore
Macrae
Shiel
Gaff
McLean
Hunter

That's a pretty bloody strong midfield.

On Shiel, is he the 4th best midfielder at GWS? I'd have him behind Kelly, Coniglio and Ward with another in Whitfield considered as a half back rather than a midfielder at present.

[Webby]

The likelihood of Libba re-doing his ACL is about 6 times higher than someone who hasn’t previously done an ACL. So to imply that the grafted knee is stronger once it’s reconstructed, compared to a persons normal anatomy (pre-injury) is wrong.

http://sportsmetrics.org/published-rates-of-reinjury-after-acl-reconstruction-show-need-for-advanced-neuromuscular-retraining/

US studies suggest the odds of re-injuring the same knee are relatively low. Studies have shown that the probability of re-tearing a reconstructed ACL is about three to six percent. (Those studies were on the general population, not just football players. But they line up with other findings that suggest the chance of a recurrent injury to the same knee amongst NFL players within two years is about five to six percent.) Meanwhile, the probability of tearing the other knee — or the “native ACL” — is higher, around nine to 12 percent.

“You would think the reconstructed ACL would be more at risk. And it’s really changed our behavior a lot in how we treat these athletes when they return to play,” said Carey. “For example, bracing used to be pretty common after ACL reconstruction. At this point, I guess the question is: which knee do you want to brace? The other knee is actually at a higher risk in general.”


So the conclusion is that patients who've received an ACL reconstruction are about twice as likely to tear their other ACL, as opposed to the reconstructed one.

I believe this lines up with Bob Murphy's, Tony Liberatore's and Tom Liberatore's experiences, for example. Of course players can and do re-tear the same ACL, however this is actually less likely than tearing a non-torn ACL. The study you've cited, is based on non-athletes and improper or inadequate muscle rehabilitation.

Read more at https://www.phillymag.com/birds247/2015/05/26/bradfords-acl-what-are-the-odds/#i7ujIQHduaOmzaz2.99

[GVGjr]

On potential and at their best:-

Bontempelli
Liberatore
Macrae
Shiel
Gaff
McLean
Hunter

That's a pretty bloody strong midfield.

On Shiel, is he the 4th best midfielder at GWS? I'd have him behind Kelly, Coniglio and Ward with another in Whitfield considered as a half back rather than a midfielder at present.

It is potentially a strong midfield and I suppose it begs the question on how hard we should be prepared to go after a Gaff with a financial offer or Shiel with a trade with GWS?

I think Shiel is the better footballer but you would you would have to pay overs to get Gaff.

A core group of Liberatore, Macrae, Bontempelli, McLean and Hunter could be a strong one but I suspect we need at least one more quality type to make it an elite one.

The likes of Wallis, Dahlhaus, Williams and Dunkley could add a lot of depth but need to also be able to contribute as forwards or defenders.

[bornadog]

So where are you actually projecting Dahlhaus in the ratings for next year as a midfielder?
Which players are ahead of him and who is he ahead of?

I thought I did that in my rankings.

OK he is below Hunter and probably Mclean, but still above Dunkley and Williams.

[LostDoggy]

Hunter being overrated IMO. Stops and props and does a dinky 20m kick. He runs hard and finds the ball but I doubt teams care that much as he pre5y much stops team momentum most times.

Libba and Bont and Macrae then Shiel then Gaff for mine. Maclean not far off. If Bont and Libba don't recover from their injuries then Shiel is better than either.

[SlimPickens]

US studies suggest the odds of re-injuring the same knee are relatively low. Studies have shown that the probability of re-tearing a reconstructed ACL is about three to six percent. (Those studies were on the general population, not just football players. But they line up with other findings that suggest the chance of a recurrent injury to the same knee amongst NFL players within two years is about five to six percent.) Meanwhile, the probability of tearing the other knee — or the “native ACL” — is higher, around nine to 12 percent.

“You would think the reconstructed ACL would be more at risk. And it’s really changed our behavior a lot in how we treat these athletes when they return to play,” said Carey. “For example, bracing used to be pretty common after ACL reconstruction. At this point, I guess the question is: which knee do you want to brace? The other knee is actually at a higher risk in general.”


So the conclusion is that patients who've received an ACL reconstruction are about twice as likely to tear their other ACL, as opposed to the reconstructed one.

I believe this lines up with Bob Murphy's, Tony Liberatore's and Tom Liberatore's experiences, for example. Of course players can and do re-tear the same ACL, however this is actually less likely than tearing a non-torn ACL. The study you've cited, is based on non-athletes and improper or inadequate muscle rehabilitation.

Read more at https://www.phillymag.com/birds247/2015/05/26/bradfords-acl-what-are-the-odds/#i7ujIQHduaOmzaz2.99

Good info but unfortunately it’s not applicable to AFL, there are numerous studies that show that the rate of same knee reinjury in the AFL is some of the highest in the world.

http://www.upstart.net.au/young-afl-players-prone-to-acl-recurrences/


What the research mostly shows is Libba is a better chance to come back stronger second time round, because of his age. Anyways back to the discussion at hand

[GVGjr]

I'd like to see our midfield get back to somewhere near to the 2015/16 standard that had about 9 players rotating through there so given versatility is a strong point for Bevo does that just add a bit more in our efforts to keep Wallis?
Wallis has been effective up forward in a number of games, Dunkley provides some match up difficulties and in some limited examples Williams looks like he has some talent there as well.
I suspect that we need to go hard at adding some depth to our midfield but that they will be required to add value in other positions as well.

[Go_Dogs]

I'd like to see our midfield get back to somewhere near to the 2015/16 standard that had about 9 players rotating through there so given versatility is a strong point for Bevo does that just add a bit more in our efforts to keep Wallis?
Wallis has been effective up forward in a number of games, Dunkley provides some match up difficulties and in some limited examples Williams looks like he has some talent there as well.
I suspect that we need to go hard at adding some depth to our midfield but that they will be required to add value in other positions as well.

I agree with this. Hypothetically, we have Bont, Macrae and Libba as our best 3 inside then McLean, along with runners in Hunter, Suckers. Plenty of guys who can play a role, but wanting a spread of diversity from all over the park.

Bont - 60/40 midfield/forward, ideally he can play with Macrae and Toby, Libba and Williams, type of combos. A very good inside player and someone who is good first or second possession out of the clearance. Probably needs to spend a bit of time in our forward half too.

Macrae - 80/20 midfield/forward. Our best inside player and accumulator. He can play with every combination and is now a more confident goal kicker.

Liberatore - 70/30 midfield/defender. I don't know why, but I wonder if he can begin transitioning to a some time defender with a view to a Matt Boyd role to finish off his career?

Hunter - 80/20 wing/forward.
McLean - 60/40 midfield/forward.
Suckling 70/30 wing/forward or defender.

Forwards who pinch hit
Dahl - 30/70
Dunkley - 30/70
Wallis - 20/80

Defenders who pinch hit
Williams - 20/80
Daniel - 20/80
Crozier - 20/80

We can bat deep.

[GVGjr]

GD, given the decline in Dahlhaus and now he just can't kick goals, do you seem him as primarily a defensive forward who takes a turn through the midfield? Two goals for the season is a damning stat on the contribution he can make up forward if that is now his primary role. It just seems to me that someone wanting a considerable commitment from the club in terms of years and dollars really needs to have a 70% midfield and 30% forward role with us.

[ledge]

I think our midfield just needs a hard nut like Clay Smith was . We have plenty of talent in there but no real scary bull.
Liberatore probably is the missing piece.

[Go_Dogs]

GD, given the decline in Dahlhaus and now he just can't kick goals, do you seem him as primarily a defensive forward who takes a turn through the midfield? Two goals for the season is a damning stat on the contribution he can make up forward if that is now his primary role. It just seems to me that someone wanting a considerable commitment from the club in terms of years and dollars really needs to have a 70% midfield and 30% forward role with us.

Yes, a predominately defensive role that can play high or closer to goals. He's good in and under in the clearances, definitely his best role at AFL level but we have others who are more effective there. I don't think we have anyone who can match his repeat efforts and intensity in the front half which continues to be a skill we seem to underrate in that area. He needs to improve his scoreboard impact to become successful in the role. If we have a bad run with injuries he certainly can play more minutes inside, and otherwise, he still continues to be an important contributor there but not his primary role.

What does this mean for his pay day? No idea. I understand why he wants to get paid - he's been a huge asset to the club from a marketing and membership perspective and being a young player at the time wouldn't have ever had a big pay day. Unfortunately for Dahl, he's currently outside our best 10 players based on his form over the past 2 seasons. I'm sure these are the kind of discussions we are having with his management and teams who need immediate depth and see a bigger role for him are also speaking with his management about.

I hope we keep Dahl because he can get back to being a consistent contributor, but perhaps not as big a role as he'd previously had. Wally in the same boat.

[Happy Days]

GD, given the decline in Dahlhaus and now he just can't kick goals, do you seem him as primarily a defensive forward who takes a turn through the midfield? Two goals for the season is a damning stat on the contribution he can make up forward if that is now his primary role. It just seems to me that someone wanting a considerable commitment from the club in terms of years and dollars really needs to have a 70% midfield and 30% forward role with us.

The more I think about it I see Dahlhaus at Geelong. This might be totally baseless but I don’t think it’s a coincidence that none of him, Redpath, Biggs and Libba have contracts for next year.

[bornadog]

GD, given the decline in Dahlhaus and now he just can't kick goals, do you seem him as primarily a defensive forward who takes a turn through the midfield? Two goals for the season is a damning stat on the contribution he can make up forward if that is now his primary role. It just seems to me that someone wanting a considerable commitment from the club in terms of years and dollars really needs to have a 70% midfield and 30% forward role with us.

He never has kicked many goals

Career Goals



2018
2


2017
13


2016
9


2015
17


2014
17


2013
28


2012
13


2011
11


Career
110



2013 a reasonable return

[Bulldog4life]

The more I think about it I see Dahlhaus at Geelong. This might be totally baseless but I don’t think it’s a coincidence that none of him, Redpath, Biggs and Libba have contracts for next year.

Jack Redpath does.

[Happy Days]

Jack Redpath does.

Wow really? Yikes.

[GVGjr]

He never has kicked many goals

Career Goals



2018
2


2017
13


2016
9


2015
17


2014
17


2013
28


2012
13


2011
11


Career
110



2013 a reasonable return

And that is the reason why I find it difficult to jusitify the years and dollars he is apparently after. Based on the contributions to the thread so far he is regarded as a bit of a depth player in the midfield and a non contributor to the scoreboard as a forward. I like GDs idea of him becoming a more defensive forward but I dont think that will command the tyoe of deal he is after.

[comrade]

Wow really? Yikes.

Cheers, Jason.

[Webby]

Good info but unfortunately it’s not applicable to AFL, there are numerous studies that show that the rate of same knee reinjury in the AFL is some of the highest in the world.

http://www.upstart.net.au/young-afl-players-prone-to-acl-recurrences/


What the research mostly shows is Libba is a better chance to come back stronger second time round, because of his age.

This is true. However the study you are referring to concentrated on AFL players and the specifics of AFL players turning pro at 18 years of age. It openly states that the prevalence is skewed towards u/22 players. Particularly for recurrence.

In NFL, players turn pro at around 22. Noting that both Bob Murphy and Tony Liberatore suffered their first reco’s at 24 and their second (to the opposite knee) in their early 30’s, its fair to say that the reconstructed knee held up okay.

Thus the reason I’m bullish about Libba’s chances of having a good career. Recurrences happen more to teens and early 20’s players, rather than the more mature ones.