2019 - Your Top 8

[GVGjr]

I'd like to see how we all think the top 8 might look at the end of the home and away season and why you think it will be that way?

1) Adelaide - They will bounce back strongly from last years distractions
2) Richmond - Even team, some might work them out but they're strong
3) Melbourne - Strong list and appear to have quality in the backs, mids and forwards.
4) Essendon - No more excuses for them as they have a strong midfield. Daniher vital
5) West Coast - A bit of a let down from last season. Gaff and Nic Nat returning
6) Collingwood - Improved midfield but question marks on their defence
7) GWS - Strong list and they still have upside
8) Sydney - It was either them or Geelong. Franklin is the key for them

[mjp]

How many changes (total teams) from last year is that mate? Adelaide in...is that it?

[GVGjr]

How many changes (total teams) from last year is that mate? Adelaide in...is that it?

Adelaide and Essendon in
Hawks and Geelong out

Crows going from 12th to 1st
Bombers 11th to 4th

[Axe Man]

Read an interesting article yesterday about the changes in the top 8 from one year to the next:

AFL 2019 preview: What history tells us about who will move into and drop out of the top eight (https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2019-preview-what-history-tells-us-about-who-will-move-into-and-drop-out-of-the-top-eight/news-story/e4578a3957e5085168dbfe78d6d3ffd5)


Since the introduction of the top eight in 1994, an average of 2.8 teams have dropped out of the finals places from season to season.

It’s a pretty tight range; there has never been fewer than two changes, while there have been four changes three times.

It doesn’t happen every single year, but on average, you can expect one team to go from outside the eight one season to inside the top four the next.

The teams that finish fifth and sixth in one year are most likely to drop out of the eight the next year; but eighth and seventh are very close behind.

While teams that make the top four one year are overall unlikely to drop out of the top eight the next year, in two out of every three seasons under this finals format, at least one has.

[mjp]

OK. I haven't given this anywhere near enough thought but here goes:

1 - Tiges. They were the best team in it last year and looked invincible for most of the year. I can't see how adding Lynch makes them worse.
2 - Bombers. Sadly. They are set up to score - Daniher or no - and teams that kick goals do well in the H+A. I just think it is going to take 14-goals to beat them and there aren't many teams who will be able to do that on a week-to-week basis.
3 - West Coast. Home ground advantage will give them 11 wins.
4 - Adelaide. Just a horror season last year. I am still pretty unsure how the Walker/Jenkins combo will 'really' work but with Crouch-Crouch-Sloane-Gibbs they really do have an elite group of mids...+ home ground.
5 - US. Midfield and half back run is going to be too much for pretty much everyone. I guess I still have faith in Bevo...basically to me when you list our potential mids/behind the ball runners and put them alongside every other team, we should be able to simply overwhelm them.
6 - Dees. I think losing Hogan hurts them. A LOT. Defensive area improved by adding a strong 1-v-1 key defender which will allow Gawn to play in a more creative role (if he can??).
7 - Pies. I DON'T like the addition of another alpha mid in Beams - though to be fair he is a genuine 2-way runner. Balance though...I guess Sidebottom plays outside more...Gonna be up and down I think.
8 - Giants. They are actually quite a bit like us in that their strength is in their run. The loss of Shiel should be overcome by the continued development of Taranto...but unless Cameron turns back into a consistent contributor versus feast or famine player...

Others:

Swans - I don't see it. But they make the finals every year.
Geelong - Ditto Sydney.
Hawks - Ditto Sydney.

Port - I think could come REALLY hard if they have a resolution to some of the chemistry stuff that seems to be plaguing them. Was Wingard a distraction/bad influence?
Freo - Land of the Giants forward line with Hogan and Lobbe - how does that work in 2019? Somehow they finished top of the table in 2015 and then fell off a cliff...seem to have talent but who knows what is going on there.
North - Super impressive in 2018 and played with real urgency and effort...but that's hard to do without results. Could be a jump forward or terrible collapse.

Brisbane - I don't believe the hype. Seem shaky on every line.

Carlton - Should be thinking 5-7 wins.
Saints - Same as blues - need to jump forward and have enough talent around the ground to do it.

Gold Coast - Seems like they are building a 'culture first' club environment. Would not be surprised if they jump out of the gate with 2-3 early wins and continue to cause trouble all year (especially against the 'top sides' at home).

[Bulldog Joe]

I haven't had time to look at things overall, but I am very optimistic about our chances.

Like mjp I see us having terrific mid field and run off half back. If we convert better in F50 we could be unstoppable.

I'm not sure that adding Lynch really helps the Tigers. Will he be the chop out ruck? That is a major weakness for them.
Will Lynch compromise the forward pressure that they have thrived upon?

I see Hawthorn, Sydney and Geelong all likely to miss the 8.

[Mofra]

I'm not sure that adding Lynch really helps the Tigers. Will he be the chop out ruck? That is a major weakness for them.
Will Lynch compromise the forward pressure that they have thrived upon?
He's managing a knee so if it's his jumping knee I wouldn't have him near the ruck... but then who rucks for them? They often went 4,6,8 when Grigg rucked and they can't do that now.

As for point two - I can certainly see that happening. Sometimes a desperate player is better than the 'better' player.

[G-Mo77]

I'd like to see how we all think the top 8 might look at the end of the home and away season and why you think it will be that way?

1) Adelaide - They will bounce back strongly from last years distractions
2) Richmond - Even team, some might work them out but they're strong
3) Melbourne - Strong list and appear to have quality in the backs, mids and forwards.
4) Essendon - No more excuses for them as they have a strong midfield. Daniher vital
5) West Coast - A bit of a let down from last season. Gaff and Nic Nat returning
6) Collingwood - Improved midfield but question marks on their defence
7) GWS - Strong list and they still have upside
8) Sydney - It was either them or Geelong. Franklin is the key for them

Similar 8 but different rankings I would change Cats over GWS, I don't think the plastics will make it. Bombres will make it but scrape in, Norf close or in there. Crows in the 5 - 8 range.

1. Richmond
2. Melbourne
3. West Coast
4. Collingwood
5. Adelaide
6. Sydney
7. Geelong
8. Bombres

15. Western Bulldogs :(

[bornadog]

I am similar to MJP except I am not bullish about Essendon. I think they may just scrape into the 8. I can't see Geelong, Hawks and Swans making it.

[mjp]

15. Western Bulldogs :(

15th?

How many wins are you giving us and over who? Only 2 of our first 14 games are interstate...and the ‘home’ games include interstate teams that do not include adelaide, port Adelaide or west coast.

I guess if we struggle out of the gates there’s going to be trouble (big trouble) but the season is really laid out for us...

[Sedat]

I see Essendon are still the hype darlings of the competition. They still have no inside mid bull extractors and will continue struggle against teams who have strong inside mids. They also still don't have Norm Smith coaching them - not too many poorer match day coaches than Woosha running around.

It will be 16 years without a finals victory and counting for these chumps.

[Twodogs]

Lets see.

1. West Coast.
2. Hawthorn.
3. Adelaide
4. Collingwood
5. Bulldogs
6. Bombers
7. Sydney/GWS/Richmond/Melbourne/Geelong two of these to make up the numbers-probably Sydney and GWS.

[Go_Dogs]

Crows
Tigers
Demons
Eagles
GWS
Pies
Bombers
Dogs

[Mofra]

I see Essendon are still the hype darlings of the competition. They still have no inside mid bull extractors and will continue struggle against teams who have strong inside mids. They also still don't have Norm Smith coaching them - not too many poorer match day coaches than Woosha running around.

It will be 16 years without a finals victory and counting for these chumps.
I think the Essendon formula is pretty simple - isolate Saad's opponent and use them as much as possible.

Saad dominates the stats for running bounces but I'd back Ghosty Lynch in as a defender before Saad, and I really think Lynch has a lot of work to do in improving his defensive capabilities.

[BornInDroopSt'54]

1 Not Bulldogs
2 Not Bulldogs
3 Not Bulldogs
4 Not Bulldogs
5 Not Bulldogs
6 Not Bulldogs
7 Bulldogs
8 Not Bulldogs

[Dry Rot]

One team which will not figure in top 8 predictions is the Saints.

I received this email today from a Sainter mate who I had informed of Jack Steven's mental health issues:

The fact that Jack Steven (our B & F) wouldn't get a game in most other lists says it all.

We will sack/change coach around Rd 16.



This was my reply:

I think you are right about sacking your coach, but it will come earlier. Ratten will take over, and will be better.

Re Steven, you are also right.

Take the Dogs. Does he get a spot ahead of Libba, Dunkley, Mcrae, The Bont, McLean or Hunter? No.

But we are now batting deep in the midfield, so he wouldn’t get a gig in our VFL side either.

Given his haircut and playing style, you might think he would get a gig with our women’s AFLW premiership team, but there too the midfield is deep, hard and skilful and so he would miss out there too.

No wonder he is depressed.

[jeemak]

One team which will not figure in top 8 predictions is the Saints.

I received this email today from a Sainter mate who I had informed of Jack Steven's mental health issues:

The fact that Jack Steven (our B & F) wouldn't get a game in most other lists says it all.

We will sack/change coach around Rd 16.



This was my reply:

I think you are right about sacking your coach, but it will come earlier. Ratten will take over, and will be better.

Re Steven, you are also right.

Take the Dogs. Does he get a spot ahead of Libba, Dunkley, Mcrae, The Bont, McLean or Hunter? No.

But we are now batting deep in the midfield, so he wouldn’t get a gig in our VFL side either.

Given his haircut and playing style, you might think he would get a gig with our women’s AFLW premiership team, but there too the midfield is deep, hard and skilful and so he would miss out there too.

No wonder he is depressed.

DR I normally love your posts but this is BS (irrespective of whether it is supposed to be light hearted banter).

Jack Steven gets a spot in just about any side to grace the field - he's a gun. Right now he gets a game in our side ahead of Libba, Dunkley and McLean...…..and even if he didn't, there's plenty of players rotating through the middle who he would.

Possibly lay of the mental illness stuff too...….

[Mofra]

DR I normally love your posts but this is BS (irrespective of whether it is supposed to be light hearted banter).

Jack Steven gets a spot in just about any side to grace the field - he's a gun. Right now he gets a game in our side ahead of Libba, Dunkley and McLean...…..and even if he didn't, there's plenty of players rotating through the middle who he would.

Possibly lay of the mental illness stuff too...….
I agree - he runs the ball and has genuine pace, and really uses it in games. He wouldn't be our best mid like he is at St Kilda but he'd compliment our guys who can find the ball but don't have 'burst speed' perfectly.
There were rumours he was sick of losing so would consider his options but St Kilda simply can't afford to lose him.
He can spray them but I don't think anyone kicking the ball with his pace going full speed is that accurate.

[jeemak]

I agree - he runs the ball and has genuine pace, and really uses it in games. He wouldn't be our best mid like he is at St Kilda but he'd compliment our guys who can find the ball but don't have 'burst speed' perfectly.
There were rumours he was sick of losing so would consider his options but St Kilda simply can't afford to lose him.
He can spray them but I don't think anyone kicking the ball with his pace going full speed is that accurate.

Aker was pretty good at it, but you're right, it's a bloody hard task.

[boydogs]

That is great banter :D

[Dry Rot]

That is great banter :D

Cheers. Someone here gets it.