What to do with 13?

[SlimPickens]

After an incredibly good trade period we have been lucky enough to keep our pick 13. Looking to the future we have an elite player who is likely to be top 5 talent in 2020, we will need points to get him onto our list.

So in your opinion do we keep 13 this year or do we trade for points in 2020?

Could we turn 13 into a first round pick 2020, or a 2nd this year and a 2nd next?

Plenty to ponder for Sam Power and the list management team.

[hujsh]

It might be a case of wait and see til draft day. If we love Weightman maybe we see what Melbourne does with 8 and trade it on the day for something later + points next year if the one love is gone.

[comrade]

After an incredibly good trade period we have been lucky enough to keep our pick 13. Looking to the future we have an elite player who is likely to be top 5 talent in 2020, we will need points to get him onto our list.

So in your opinion do we keep 13 this year or do we trade for points in 2020?

Could we turn 13 into a first round pick 2020, or a 2nd this year and a 2nd next?

Plenty to ponder for Sam Power and the list management team.

Depending on what happens on draft night (if the players we were holding out for are gone), we could do something like trade out pick 13+53 to Richmond for pick 19+38 & a pick next year.

BT can have a field day with these sorts of scenarios!

[Happy Days]

Draft Will Gould. If he’s seriously 191cm and 108kgs he’s already my favourite player.

[comrade]

Draft Will Gould. If he’s seriously 191cm and 108kgs he’s already my favourite player.

Has a bit of Gladstone Small about him too.

[Twodogs]

Has a bit of Gladstone Small about him too.

He was a helluva nice guy. I don't know how but for some reason he came and sat with my mates and I at a one dayer in the '80s. He wasn't playing so him and another player in the touring group were doing a lap of the ground when we got in to a bit of banter (yep, it was mainly about his neck) he liked what he heard so he sat with us for an hour or so. One of the pommy admins ended up having to come and get him and he wasn't happy.

[Mofra]

Use it, best available.

I doubt our draftees get game next year so we can afford to just take the best player available at our pick and park them for a year as they develop. There will surely be a talented slider available at our pick.

[bulldogtragic]

Depending on what happens on draft night (if the players we were holding out for are gone), we could do something like trade out pick 13+53 to Richmond for pick 19+38 & a pick next year.

BT can have a field day with these sorts of scenarios!

It's an easy one, use pick 13 (best available) & 53 (mature talent, Sokol maybe). Upgrade La Young.

Unless (very far fetched), as per the Jack Martin thread: unrelated, Martin swear off Carlton. GCS delist him. Dogs pick him up as a delisted free agent on 5 X $700,000. After this happens, dogs do a draft pick trade with GCS: Picks 13, 53 & future 3rd (tied to Adelaide) for Picks 15, 78 & future 2nd (tied to Brisbane).

If we guess that JUH goes number 2, I don't think the AFEL will like the optics of pick 1 being stolen. So say 2,000 points after discounts for him. Then say 1,800 points after discounts on the other three guys. And we round the number to 4,000.

4,000 draft points with the ability to go 1,723 draft points deficit. So 2,277 points are needed. Say we finish 5th. That gives us 2,000 points. And we can draft points trade and trade out fringe players to help enhance our points upwards of 2,277 easily enough.

So I'd use pick 13 now and likely sacrifice our first two picks in 2021. But we so have Sam Darcy & The West Twins as potential ways to bring in talent on the cheap in 2021. There's also decent players who might request a trade next year to help reduce the deficit.

[The Doctor]

It's an easy one, use pick 13 (best available) & 53 (mature talent, Sokol maybe). Upgrade La Young.

Unless (very far fetched), as per the Jack Martin thread: unrelated, Martin swear off Carlton. GCS delist him. Dogs pick him up as a delisted free agent on 5 X $700,000. After this happens, dogs do a draft pick trade with GCS: Picks 13, 53 & future 3rd (tied to Adelaide) for Picks 15, 78 & future 2nd (tied to Brisbane).


I'm not 100% sure of the rules as they always seem to change but I don't think Martin qualifies as a delisted free agent. I think he had to be classified as a FA or RFA for that to apply. In his case he is uncontracted and doesn't want to be re-contracted by GC so his options are the National Draft or the Pre Season Draft only. I believe he can still put a price on his head. Thats my understanding anyway.

[bulldogtragic]

I'm not 100% sure of the rules as they always seem to change but I don't think Martin qualifies as a delisted free agent. I think he had to be classified as a FA or RFA for that to apply. In his case he is uncontracted and doesn't want to be re-contracted by GC so his options are the National Draft or the Pre Season Draft only. I believe he can still put a price on his head. Thats my understanding anyway.

You're right about the rule changes. This is what I understood things to be this year. This is from the NAB this year via the AFEL:

UNRESTRICTED FREE AGENT
These players are not in the top 25% of salaries at their club but have served at least eight years. That’s what makes them eligible for unrestricted free agency. And players on the primary list of their club who are delisted are classed as unrestricted free agents too, but a player who retires or delists themself isn’t.


In the far fetched hypothetical I mentioned, GCS would need to first delist him so he could gain the flexibility to pick a club to get to. Then a coincidental draft picks/points trade a bit later.

The AFEL can't allow a messy PSD threat show down after the injection of positivity with their support package. I don't think he goes that way. So National Draft where probably North pick him up in the 20's with their spare cap. Or the AFEL looks the other way if any club, even Carlton does something like this. Then they say it's a loop hole no they won't allow it from next year on.

[The Doctor]

What we do with pick 13 will be very interesting. It could go a number of ways but I don't think it will be as simple as just picking best available even if this is what the club tells the public. I think for this pick this year a lot of planning and thought will have already gone into it which is possibly why the club fought so hard to retain the pick. My view is based on

What the Club has said and done Pre-Trade period

- Wanted to address key positions through trading. (done)
- Wanted to raise the age profile of the list (done, but may not yet be finished)
- Went into the market looking for midfield & forward speed, ball use etc. We were at times linked with Smith, Martin, Tippa & Brad Hill
- Want to develop a program to assist in the attraction and development of indigenous players to the club
- Interested in a back up ruckman
- Sam has said we want to keep adding quality youth each draft


Medium/Long Term List Management Strategy

Sam Power has stated publicly the club focuses on strategies as far as 2-3 years in advance. So there will be various permutations that will affect decision making in this regard. For a brief example;Small forward category reveals 2 players near the end of their career (Dickson and Lloyd). This will be diagnosed across the whole list by position, age, versatility, speed etc etc. Other things that will affect what we do now will be our recruiting will be

- Quantities & depth of player types
- Availablity of player types that fill a desired need in 2019
- 2020 Free agency options
- 2020 NGA & F/S options
- 2020/21 possible retirements
- 2020/21 possible delistings forecasts


The NGA prospects for 2020 include

Jamarra Ugle Hagen, Key Forward, possible top 10 pick
Nick Stevens, Tall utility, possible 1st/2nd round pick
Ewan Macpherson, inside mid, possible top 30 pick
Cody Raak, Key defender, Uncertain but has been mentioned asa possible top 30 pick

There are others. How the club rates them is the key obviously. The likely addition addition of Jamarra probably means our key forwards are well stocked for possibly the first time since 1992!! If Raak is considered a good prospect by the club then our KPD'S are looking strong as well.

cont...

[The Doctor]

Part 2

Players coming out of contract 2020

Priorities - Hayden Crozier, Josh Schache, Easton Wood, Bailey Smith

Likely Extensions - Sam Lloyd, Taylor Duryea,

Uncertain - Billy Gowers, Fergus Greene, Jackson Trengove, Lin Jong, Brad Lynch, Latham Vandermeer, Ben Cavarra, Will Hayes, Callum Porter, Rookies

Likely Retirements Tory Dickson, Matt Suckling

These groupings can quickly change from one to the other based on performance. This is just how I see it as of now. The Uncertain & Retirements groups are where I see the bulk of our list changes coming from in 2020. The player types most generally appearing are the small/medium forwards & utility types. The fact that so many appear here means we lack a bit of class in this area.


Based on this brief analysis I think we could use pick 13 in one of the following ways. In no particular order are some player types and options that could appeal to us;



1. Small/medium Forwards


Cody Weightman 177cm All Australian small forward

Dylan Willams 185cm Goalkicking X Factor medium forward

Elijah Taylor 185cm Indigenous Skilful multi dimensional forward All Australian

Liam Henry would be perfect but he is tied to Freo


2. Outside midfielders/Wingers/ Ball Users/Flankers etc


Dylan Stephens 185cm winger/half forward from SA

Jeremy Sharpe 187cm ball carrying dual All Australian from WA

Mitch O'Neill 180cm small outside/inside midfielder All Australian from TAS


3. Someone we rated so highly we didn't expect to be available. For Example Luke Jackson/Ruckman


4. A player we really wanted at 13 is not available and our interest in other options is mild. We might then consider splitting our pick in order to get a future pick especially is we highly rate the NGA/FS options available to us.

Or we could split it into 2 x 2nd rounders if there are several players we might like that addresses our needs that we think could be available. But I would be surprised if we did this given Sam [Power has stated we want to continue adding top end youth to our list each year.


From my personal view I don't like getting too clever. Use pick 13 on a good young player that is best available that suits our biggest need. I wouldn't be surprised if Williams is on the radar because he is a very clever forward and played at Oakleigh with Jamarra (they booted 9 between them in one game). Earlier this year was considered a top 5 chance. Sharpe would suit our style as a running wingman and good ball user.