2016 GF Team vs 2020 Best 22

[bulldogtragic]

2016 Premiership Side:

B: Jason Johannisen Joel Hamling Matthew Boyd
HB: Shane Biggs Dale Morris Easton Wood
C: Lachie Hunter Marcus Bontempelli Liam Picken
HF: Jackson Macrae Zaine Cordy Jake Stringer
F: Tory Dickson Tom Boyd Clay Smith
Foll: Jordan Roughead Luke Dahlhaus Tom Liberatore
Int: Toby McLean Fletcher Roberts Josh Dunkley Caleb Daniel
Coach: Luke Beveridge

Injuries: Bob Murphy Mitch Wallis Matthew Suckling Lin Jong (great VFL GF, but a Q on the shoulder) Marcus Adams Stew Crameri (ASADA)
Depth: Minson, Redpath, Campbell, Collins, Stevens, Hrovat, Prudden, Hamilton, Honeychurch (ALL Gone within 2 years)



Definition: > = means replacing, not necessarily better than.



2020 (my) Best 22 Side:

B: Jason Johannisen Lewis Young Matthew Suckling ----- (Lewis Young > Joel Hamling, Matthew Suckling > Matthew Boyd)
HB: Hayden Crozier Alex Keath Easton Wood ----- (Hayden Crozier > Shane Biggs, Alex Keath > Dale Morris)
C: Lachie Hunter Marcus Bontempelli Caleb Daniel ----- (Caleb Daniel > Liam Picken)
HF: Sam Lloyd Aaron Naughton Josh Schache ----- (All > Jack Macrae, Zaine Cordy, Jake Stringer)
F: Bailey Dale Josh Bruce Toby McLean ----- (All > Tory Dickson Tom Boyd Clay Smith
Foll: Tim English Jackson Macrae Josh Dunkley ----- (All > Jordan Roughead, Luke Dahlhaus, Tom Liberatore)
Int: Ed Richards Bailey Smith Tom Liberatore Patrick Lipinksi ----- (All > McLean Roberts Dunkley Daniel)
Emerg: Bailey Williams Jackson Trengove Mitch Wallis Taylor Duryea/Tory Dickson
Coach: Luke Beveridge

Depth: Cordy, West, La Young, Jong, Hayes, Greene, Gowers, Vandermeer, Lynch, Cavarra, Porter, Khamis, Sweet, Pick 13 & 53



Players from 2016 GF: 11 (with 6 retired, 4 traded/free agency, 1 delisted shortly)

Backline/Defenders: Looks a little more mobile. Probably more intercept ability.

Forwardline/Forwards: Overall looks more potent, three talls who play varying styles. Two of them very good contested marks.

Mids/Followers: A lot of the 11 in the 2016 side have continued to develop well. Bonts another BF & AA, Hunter BF, Macrae AA, Daniel & McLean are continuing to develop. Bonts, Macrae & Dunkley racking up 100+ disposals a game easily in this year.

Newer Players: Dunkley is now a gun, Lipinski also impressing, Smith has grunt, run and carry and is a beast, English adds a fair bit too, Naughton & Schache with Bruce will get to another level. Pick 13 should bring in another good player who might surprise with plenty of first year games like Naughton, Dunkley, Richrds & Smith.

Experience: Wood, Trengove, Suckling, Duryea, Bruce, Libba, Wallis, Keath, Dickson.
Age 25+: 15 players
100+ Games: JJ, Libba, Wood, Bontempelli, Hunter, Trengove, Suckling, Wallis, Macrae, Crozier, Duryea, Dickson (McLean, Lloyd & Daniel May get to 100 next year) - up to 15 players by years end.
50-100 Games: Up to 10 players by years end.

Players from other teams: Port Adelaide, Adelaide, Fremantle, Brisbane, Richmond, St Kilda, Hawthorn, Carlton (via Footscray)
VFL Teams drawn from: Footscray, Williamstown, North Adelaide, Bendigo


If the gameplan is right. If the selections are right. If our injuries are managed well. The team next year, I think, compares favourably with the skill and ability of the 2016 team, leaving aside some amazing performances by individual players (some who never got near that level again). With the age profile, we still have a very many players with significant development to come from 2020 onwards. A bunch of exciting kids coming into the squad in next year too, and the (now called) Martin Money ($700,000) in spare salary cap. The expectation of top 4, is it in 2020 or 2021?

[Go_Dogs]

It's not even that long ago but I'd completely forgot Minson was on the list in 2016....

Save for the lack of 200+ gamers (haven't done the math, but assume more light on) compares well. Think we have more ability in the air at both ends and smidge more pace, too.

[bulldogtragic]

It's not even that long ago but I'd completely forgot Minson was on the list in 2016....

Save for the lack of 200+ gamers (haven't done the math, but assume more light on) compares well. Think we have more ability in the air at both ends and smidge more pace, too.

Yep. Our 200’s are down. JT 185 & Suckers 171 our highest. But we have a LOT more in the 100-200 range (up to 15), and good number 50-100 (up to 10). A lot of guys moving into their best footy. (Updated OP)

[SonofScray]

Yep. Our 200’s are down. JT 185 & Suckers 171 our highest. But we have a LOT more in the 100-200 range (up to 15), and good number 50-100 (up to 10). A lot of guys moving into their best footy. (Updated OP)

This is the stat that Chris Grant asked us to consider as part of reflections on why things went the way they did post flag. He said a lot of our decisions had been based around bringing the bulk of the list/top end talent into that range, as well as a measure which expressed games played together.

Our eexpectations should be high.

[Mantis]

The finals series that Clay Smith & Liam Picken performed is miles in front of the rest of their career and as suggested that's the level they should be judged on, they were *!*!*!*!ing immense.

In 2016 we were harder for longer than everyone else, and ground our opposition into submission... The 2020 team won't be able to do this and will play a completely different brand of footy and whilst I'm bullish the benchmark set by Richmond is extremely high so we will need a big improvement to get to that point (assuming of course that Richmond continue on).

[Mofra]

Liam Picken is a massive, massive loss.
Absolute gut runner and nobody we have tried to replace him with has come close.

Note he is named on the opposite wing to Hunter in 2016 where we have struggled in recent years.

[GVGjr]

Liam Picken is a massive, massive loss.
Absolute gut runner and nobody we have tried to replace him with has come close.

Note he is named on the opposite wing to Hunter in 2016 where we have struggled in recent years.

2016 was also the last good year for a few players. Biggs, Stringer, Dahlhaus and Wood were never quite the same players

[Bulldog Joe]

2016 was also the last good year for a few players. Biggs, Stringer, Dahlhaus and Wood were never quite the same players

You can probably add Fletcher Roberts to that list.

Johannisen has also not recaptured his 2016 form.

[AshMac]

Liam Picken is a massive, massive loss.
Absolute gut runner and nobody we have tried to replace him with has come close.

Note he is named on the opposite wing to Hunter in 2016 where we have struggled in recent years.

Couldn’t agree more, whether playing as a tagged a wingman or a small/mid forward Picken had a profound impact on games. His last 2 years IMO cemented him as a lynchpin in our team and his finals campaign was immense in the greatest finals campaign of all time.

[bulldogtragic]

Heres what the list looks like in 3, 4 & 5 years as it moves into the premiership window from the Top 4 window (or better) for the next two years.

(Assumptions: Players retired drop off at a guess. No trade outs, but fringe names may drop off the list. Maximum 18 games per year on average, factoring in some injuries or resting and generally being conservative)

No. Surname. Ages 2022-24. Games Estimate.

1. Suckling - retired next year, N/A
2. Le Young - Age 24, 25, 26 - Games 100+
3. Wallis - Age 30, 31, 32 - Games 180-200+
4. Bonts - Age 27, 28, 29 - Games 200+
5. Dunkley - Age 25, 26, 27 - Games 150+
6. B. Smith - Age 22, 23, 24 - Games 100+
7. Hunter - Age 28, 29, 30 - Games 200+
8. Trengove - Age 32, retired X 2 - Games 200+
9. Crozier - Age 29, 30, 31 - Games 200+
10. Wood - Age 33, retired X 2 - Games 200+
11. Macrae - Age 28, 29, 30 - Games 200+
12. Cordy - Age 26, 27, 28 - Games 120-150
13. Schache - Age 25, 26, 27 - Games 150+
14. West - Age 22, 23, 24 - Games 50-100
15. Duryea - Age 31, 32, Ret - Games 150-180+
16. McLean - Age 26, 27, 28 - Games 150-180+
17. TBA
18. TBA
19. TBA
20. Richards - Age 22, 23, 24 - Games 120-150+
21. Libba - Age 30, 31, 32 - Games 200+
22. Lloyd - Age 32, 33, Ret - Games 150+
23. Vandermeer - Age 23, 24, 25 - Games U/K
24. Khamis - Age 22, 23, 24 - Games U/K
25. Cavarra - Age 27, 28, 29 - Games U/K
26. Gowers - Age 26, 27, 28 - Games U/K
27. Lipinski - Age 24, 25, 26 - Games 100-150+
28. Porter - Age 23, 24, 25 - Games U/K
29. Dickson - Retired
30. Greene - Age 25, 26, 27 - Games U/K
31. Dale - Age 26, 27, 28 - Games 100-150+
32. Hayes - Age 27, 28, 29 - Games U/K
33. Naughton - Age 23, 24, 25 - Games 100-150+
34. Williams - Age 25, 26, 27 - Games 100+
35. Daniel - Age 26, 27, 28 - Games 150-200+
36. Lynch - Age 25, 26, 27 - Games U/K
37. Roarke - Age 26, 27, 28 - Games U/K
38. TBA
39. Johannisen - Age 30, 31, 32 - Games 200+
40. La Young - Age 23, 24, 25 - Games U/K
41. Sweet - Age 24, 25, 26 - Games U/K
42. TBA
43. Gardner - Age 25, 26, 27 - Games U/K
44. English - Age 25, 26, 27 - Games 100+
45. Jong - Age 29, 30, 31 - Games U/K
Tr1. Bruce - Age 30, 31, 32 - Games 200+
Tr2. Keath - Age 30, 31, 32 - Games 100-150+

Pick 13, Pick 53, Ugle-Hagan, Stevens, MacPherson, Raak - aged around 20, 21, 22. A free agent with the 'Martin Money' ($700,000) would inject another skilled player in the sweet spot for age and experience.

I'm not saying we can't win a flag in the next two years. But when you look at this snap shot of 2022, 2023 & 2024 the age profile and experience is perfect for a sustained tilt at multiple flags from the group. By 2024 several players look to be gone or close to going: Bruce, Keath, JJ, Libba, Wallis with Trengove & Wood already gone.

But that may present us with an opportunity to extend the window. Those guys would be currently on, or over $3,000,000 combined. As these contracts expire it opens up more money to keep our stars signed up, and trade in good players hunting a premiership. If Ugle-Hagan can take over from Bruce in 2025, being aged 22-23, with Naughton just 26 & Schache just 28 the forward line of Talls is is in good shape. The mids still have a few good years in them and English will be entering the 'Grundy' phase of his career too. We need to look at longer terms replacements for the loss of Keath, Wood & Trengove. Hopefully Le Young and Cordy cement themselves as good players. Hopefully also, guys like La Young, Khamis, Raak etc can step into the third tall, rebounding defender type with many good flankers still of a good age. Good thing is we have time to find by draft or trade some good defenders.

Hopefully we've locked Sam Power in as list manager for another 3-4 years to ensure the crucial parts of the list are kept together, and which ones can be let go. Whether to emphasise the draft or trade in the medium term and give the match committee and coaching coach no excuses to win multiple flags in the years ahead. It appears 2020 is not a trading year, 2021 may have deficits but with potential FSs Sam Darcy (ruck/fwd) and The West Twins (outside mids). 2022 depending on onfield performance may be a good year to trade and bring in some good needs based players if we have the cash. No doubt some fringe players may want out if they're not getting games, but that's at the fringe of things.

All in all, bring on the next two years. But the years after should have no excuses. A group of elite talent, aged to perfection and incredibly experienced in individual games played, but also experienced as a broad playing group and to big small things like understanding leading patterns of forwards and how they work best together. If any of our fans need an excuse to become members then this is it. If these fans want a guaranteed Gand final ticket, best get on the social club waiting list immediately.

[AshMac]

BT - how do we keep the $700k aside for next year and still meet the requirement of our salary cap for 2020?

(Apologies if this message appears more than once, phone keeps logging me out and won’t post)

[bulldogtragic]

BT - how do we keep the $700k aside for next year and still meet the requirement of our salary cap for 2020?

(Apologies if this message appears more than once, phone keeps logging me out and won’t post)

We can pay as little as 95% of the salary cap. The difference this year is $650,000. Next year the gap is close to the $700,000. That’s leaving aside restructuring deals to pay players a little earlier to meet the 95%. Simple enough for a small figure like $700,000.

[Nuggety Back Pocket]

The difference will be whether we can recapture the onfield leadership displayed in the 2016 Final series, highlighted by players like Picken Morris M Boyd Tom Boyd Roughead Liberatore Wood and Clay Smith. It was a relentless never say die combination. Whilst on paper we appear to have the talent in 2020, it is the mental toughness and physical desire that will ultimately determine if we are capable of rising to the heights of 2016.