GVGjr
19-07-2020, 09:04 AM
Dropping the Moneyball: How clubs missed the boat on Casboult (https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/dropping-the-moneyball-how-clubs-missed-the-boat-on-casboult-20200718-p55d8x.html)
The first impression Levi Casboult made as an AFL footballer was as the young player who was handcuffed to a teammate on a booze cruise in December 2009, when he was allegedly forced to match drinks until he was on the brink of passing out.
Then as he established himself, 201-centimetre Casboult became known as a powerful marking forward whose cumbersome kicking technique made him a marginal player with the Blues. Carlton never offered him much money or tenure.
Today, Casboult is a player transformed. A few weeks ago, he stood in front of the Carlton playing group and explained how his improved mindset, or mental approach, had made him a much better player, and how this had only happened, to his detriment, later in his career.
Casboult was never offered deals beyond one or two guaranteed years because he never attracted sufficient interest from other clubs to improve his bargaining position. He's been akin to a permanent casual at Carlton, having eked out 130 games over a decade.
Footy never believed in him.
In this surreal season, Casboult has confounded 10 years of living contract-to-contract to become one of Carlton's most valued players. He had agreed to terms on yet another short-term deal - one year - before the AFL froze all player contracts in March.
Technically, Casboult is a free agent. Again. But he's agreed to stay and will not have to endure another season of wondering if he'll have a place on the list (having needed a trigger clause to get an extension in 2020).
The mature version of Casboult was instrumental in Carlton's narrow wins over Geelong (five contested marks and 2.0) and Essendon (three goals from three shots!). If you compare his output this season to other tall forwards, he stacks up as a very valuable footballer.
Few players in the AFL are delivering more to their club for fewer dollars than hitherto maligned Casboult, who is equal with Eddie Betts as Carlton's leading goalkicker (nine), equal second in the AFL for contested marks (2.2 per game, behind Port's Charlie Dixon) and he's kicking - by his wonky standards - straight, at 56 per cent, with a career high for score involvements.
Casboult is the game's quintessential Moneyball player, in that his real value exceeds his perceived value and modest salary (estimated at $350,000-$400,000, pre-COVID-19 pay cuts), relative to the premium that key forwards command.
He also represents one of the AFL's major missed recruiting opportunities for rival clubs.
Consider his hypothetical impact today if he was occupying the goal square at either Collingwood or the Brisbane Lions, teams with premiership aspirations that have glaring weaknesses on the key forward front.
He's a superior player, on nearly every measure, to Mason Cox, bearing in mind that Casboult also offers a second ruck option. He's a more reliable target than, say, Eric Hipwood and Oscar McInerney at the Lions.
While left-footed Hipwood is a fluent, stylish-looking player, he plays "small" and can't be counted on as a primary target. Casboult, conversely, isn't a smooth mover, has a terrible kicking action and seems to lumber like a giraffe, yet gets the job done.
Collingwood right now would be well-placed to hoist the COVID-stained silverware if the Pies had even a moderately reliable proper key forward; their backline, midfield, defensive/transition method and array of mid-sized forwards mean they don't need a tall A-grader in the goal square supporting Brody Mihocek (another Moneyball forward).
Casboult would be excellent for Essendon, too, given that the Dons have had to live without Joe Daniher for the bulk of three seasons. He produces far more than Geelong's Esava Ratugolea, albeit the Cats wouldn't want another 30-year-old key forward.
Casboult can play back, too, having surprisingly succeeded in holding down a key defensive post last year when Liam Jones was concussed.
Carlton's ambivalence about Casboult reflected not simply his deficiencies - particularly the kicking that Saverio Rocca worked so assiduously to straighten up - but the reality that the club, rightly, preferred for the younger and talented Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow to fill key posts in attack.
The Blues, who were in a position of not needing him, found that Casboult was bordering on indispensable once Curnow, one of the AFL's most athletic key forward prospects, was grounded for most of 2019 and this year.
Richmond were one of few clubs that entertained the concept of Casboult back in 2017, when he was 27 and without currency; the Tigers went on to land Tom Lynch 12 months later.
Always a stupendous contested mark with an athleticism that belied his ungainly gait, Casboult was a player who, by his own admission needed the right coach. In David Teague, he found one who believed in him, although in fairness to Brendon Bolton and Mick Malthouse, there were good reasons to question his viability.
At heart, Casboult's Indian summer is a story of resilience. The competition didn't see his value, in part because there was excessive focus on what he couldn't do - kick and run fluently, swivel on a dime - rather than on what he could do so well: mark and compete.
Carlton's gain, however accidental, might have been another club's with more imminent premiership prospects. This overlooking of a rough diamond is a fitting metaphor for Casboult's career - the forward renowned for missing kept getting missed, before he finally straightened up.
The first impression Levi Casboult made as an AFL footballer was as the young player who was handcuffed to a teammate on a booze cruise in December 2009, when he was allegedly forced to match drinks until he was on the brink of passing out.
Then as he established himself, 201-centimetre Casboult became known as a powerful marking forward whose cumbersome kicking technique made him a marginal player with the Blues. Carlton never offered him much money or tenure.
Today, Casboult is a player transformed. A few weeks ago, he stood in front of the Carlton playing group and explained how his improved mindset, or mental approach, had made him a much better player, and how this had only happened, to his detriment, later in his career.
Casboult was never offered deals beyond one or two guaranteed years because he never attracted sufficient interest from other clubs to improve his bargaining position. He's been akin to a permanent casual at Carlton, having eked out 130 games over a decade.
Footy never believed in him.
In this surreal season, Casboult has confounded 10 years of living contract-to-contract to become one of Carlton's most valued players. He had agreed to terms on yet another short-term deal - one year - before the AFL froze all player contracts in March.
Technically, Casboult is a free agent. Again. But he's agreed to stay and will not have to endure another season of wondering if he'll have a place on the list (having needed a trigger clause to get an extension in 2020).
The mature version of Casboult was instrumental in Carlton's narrow wins over Geelong (five contested marks and 2.0) and Essendon (three goals from three shots!). If you compare his output this season to other tall forwards, he stacks up as a very valuable footballer.
Few players in the AFL are delivering more to their club for fewer dollars than hitherto maligned Casboult, who is equal with Eddie Betts as Carlton's leading goalkicker (nine), equal second in the AFL for contested marks (2.2 per game, behind Port's Charlie Dixon) and he's kicking - by his wonky standards - straight, at 56 per cent, with a career high for score involvements.
Casboult is the game's quintessential Moneyball player, in that his real value exceeds his perceived value and modest salary (estimated at $350,000-$400,000, pre-COVID-19 pay cuts), relative to the premium that key forwards command.
He also represents one of the AFL's major missed recruiting opportunities for rival clubs.
Consider his hypothetical impact today if he was occupying the goal square at either Collingwood or the Brisbane Lions, teams with premiership aspirations that have glaring weaknesses on the key forward front.
He's a superior player, on nearly every measure, to Mason Cox, bearing in mind that Casboult also offers a second ruck option. He's a more reliable target than, say, Eric Hipwood and Oscar McInerney at the Lions.
While left-footed Hipwood is a fluent, stylish-looking player, he plays "small" and can't be counted on as a primary target. Casboult, conversely, isn't a smooth mover, has a terrible kicking action and seems to lumber like a giraffe, yet gets the job done.
Collingwood right now would be well-placed to hoist the COVID-stained silverware if the Pies had even a moderately reliable proper key forward; their backline, midfield, defensive/transition method and array of mid-sized forwards mean they don't need a tall A-grader in the goal square supporting Brody Mihocek (another Moneyball forward).
Casboult would be excellent for Essendon, too, given that the Dons have had to live without Joe Daniher for the bulk of three seasons. He produces far more than Geelong's Esava Ratugolea, albeit the Cats wouldn't want another 30-year-old key forward.
Casboult can play back, too, having surprisingly succeeded in holding down a key defensive post last year when Liam Jones was concussed.
Carlton's ambivalence about Casboult reflected not simply his deficiencies - particularly the kicking that Saverio Rocca worked so assiduously to straighten up - but the reality that the club, rightly, preferred for the younger and talented Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow to fill key posts in attack.
The Blues, who were in a position of not needing him, found that Casboult was bordering on indispensable once Curnow, one of the AFL's most athletic key forward prospects, was grounded for most of 2019 and this year.
Richmond were one of few clubs that entertained the concept of Casboult back in 2017, when he was 27 and without currency; the Tigers went on to land Tom Lynch 12 months later.
Always a stupendous contested mark with an athleticism that belied his ungainly gait, Casboult was a player who, by his own admission needed the right coach. In David Teague, he found one who believed in him, although in fairness to Brendon Bolton and Mick Malthouse, there were good reasons to question his viability.
At heart, Casboult's Indian summer is a story of resilience. The competition didn't see his value, in part because there was excessive focus on what he couldn't do - kick and run fluently, swivel on a dime - rather than on what he could do so well: mark and compete.
Carlton's gain, however accidental, might have been another club's with more imminent premiership prospects. This overlooking of a rough diamond is a fitting metaphor for Casboult's career - the forward renowned for missing kept getting missed, before he finally straightened up.