2021 Wooden Spoon and bottom 6

[Dry Rot]

I am tired of the elitist posting on many threads here discussing top 4 in 2021, top 8, likely premiers etc.

As a Man of the People, I want to talk about the 2021 Wooden Spoon and bottom 6, especially since that might involve some of our favourite clubs.

The inverse 2020 bottom ladder was:

Crows
North
Swans
Hawks
Suns
Bombers

Some big name arrogant clubs there. So what will happen in 2021? Let's look at these teams first.

Crows - shocking for most of the season, but really showed something towards the end of the season. My prediction - won't make the eight, but will improve and will not be in the bottom three.

North - loss of personnel, rebuilding, untried coach, hard to see them climbing out of the bottom three, likely wooden spooner for me.

Swans - were really competitive in many games they eventually lost, if Franklin is fit I predict a rise to top of the bottom six or slightly beyond.

Hawks - really hard to see them improving beyond roughly where they finished

Suns - young highly skilled team with a pretty good coach which just fell away. Better for the run in 2020, will be close but outside the 8.

Bombers - third worst percentage, fourth worst defensive record. Lost some good players like Saad, other previously good players like Hurley should be sent too the knackery. Serious threat for bottom in my book.

What do you think?

And if any of these teams escape the bottom 6 in 2021, who will replace them?

[soupman]

The next candidates.

Freo: Hard to see them dropping, lots of young talent, a young coach who seems to be doing the right things, home ground advantage is probably a thing again this season as well which helps.

Carlton: Another tea of young players that is meant to be ready to rise, but haven't we been saying that for a couple of seasons now? They recruited well, but forwardline still lacks firepower. Curnow doesn't have knees, McKay is hot and cold, Martin is quality but doesn't carry them. They are good elsewhere, but Carlton have yet to prove they can take that next step and don't really have a resilient system to help carry them through from slumps or key injuries.

GWS: They were pretty mediocre this year and I think they got worse in the off season. Preuss is like that year Jon Giles was their number 1 ruck, I doubt Hogan is going to be a significant contributor, they've lost two of their best 10 players and seemingly will be trying to pump some games into the younguns, and have a coach and leadership group which seem incapable of pulling them out of form slumps. If they don't get on a roll at some point i can see them flirting with bottom 6.

Melbourne: Like Carlton they are all promise but keep finding ways to not improve. Their midfield is still unbalanced, they are a really undynamic side as it is and have just brought in Ben Brown to form the clunkiest forwardline of all time with McDonald and Jackson and Weideman, are another side with a coach who has been uninspiring at best. Could easily sink lower.

At least 3 of the sides will be expecting to push for finals this season, but most are proven underperformers, have a culture and/or playing style that doesn't stand up when things aren't going well, and many are prone to large periods of disappointment in the season. They are generally (excluding Freo) much more mature than the bottom 6 sides, but that doesn't mean one or two of those bottom 6 sides don't jump up and push these guys down when they fail to improve.

[soupman]

Fwiw:

I want Essendon to be the worst, and I think they'll pull it off.

The backline with the exception of Ridley and a cooked Hurley reads like Coburgs best players in a 34 point loss to Werribee: Ambrose, Redman, Zerk-Thatcher, Hind. Yuck. Midfield is goodbad, a bunch of good solid players but no real stars and not really a midfield that is greater than the sum of all parts. Forwardline is disgusting, Stringer and AMT the only AFL quality players, and we know the formers reputation. Peter Wright and James Stewart as the two main forwards is like that year (2002) we played Trent Bartlett and Nathan Saunders in the same team. Rutten has had the awkward scenario of having a year of kind of being the main coach but without any real authority, and now will have Sheedy knocking on his door every second day telling him how he had a word with the lads and reckons James Hirds kid should be given a game for the fans. I expect Essendon to pump games into skinny outside mids, bemoan how their midfield is undersized and how they would pay anything to get a proven quality big body in there (although "pay anything" in this scenario is limited to the value of their third best pick and a future second), and overcorrect and make sure Andrew Phillips gets a farewell game to close out the season.

Adelaide are next worst. They're deplorable, but will still snag a couple of wins to beat out the Bombers.

Gold Coast are always good starters, and then about round 6 they fall in a heap and are proper bottom 2 quality. If they can extend the period they are good for to like round 12, and be semi competitive for the rest, then they are a chance to make their way out of the bottom 6.

Hawks and Sydney have very different approaches to rebuilding (Hawthorn seem to be rebuilding with reclaimed rubble from the Dingley tip because it used to be worth pick 1 and it would be a shame to see it go to waste) but both have good enough winning cultures and coaches to put together enough wins to scramble their way out of the 6. I'm not very hot on Hawthorn here tbh, but Sydney are the leading candidates to push one of the mediocre mid table sides like Melbourne or GWS into the bottom 6.

That leaves North, who I kind of like. They have some good talent, and I think they'll swing wildly from kind of good to very bad. I don't expect them to escape the bottom 6, but i do think they won't be bottom.

I'm going to tip Gold Coast to finish 12th and Sydney 10th, and taking their spots I'm going to nominate GWS and Carlton. GWS cannot improve, and i don't think they have the internal strength to stop the slump. Carlton as always are surrounded by hope and expectation, they really are due to make the next step, I'm going to say they have a few close losses, a few frustrating injuries and a few underperformers which means they stagnate and even go backwards a little.

[boydogs]

North are in for a Fitzroy style existential threatening poor run, they were horrible in 2020 and worse in the off season. Think 2014 for us without the good young kids coming through. If the Tassie government pulls the pin on their deal, they will be in a massive hole and the fans won't want to watch the tripe they will serve up

Sydney & Hawthorn a chance to climb, Gold Coast should with another year into the latest generation of kids, Crows & Bombers will stay there and may be joined by Freo, Carlton & Collingwood

[bornadog]

I think North will be the wooden spooners for 2021. After delisting/trading 14 plus players and losing some experience with Higgins and Brown it is a tough road ahead for them. Adelaide should climb back up off the bottom but I don't think they can climb more the 4 or 5 places.

[The Adelaide Connection]

Fwiw:

I want Essendon to be the worst, and I think they'll pull it off.

The backline with the exception of Ridley and a cooked Hurley reads like Coburgs best players in a 34 point loss to Werribee: Ambrose, Redman, Zerk-Thatcher, Hind. Yuck. Midfield is goodbad, a bunch of good solid players but no real stars and not really a midfield that is greater than the sum of all parts. Forwardline is disgusting, Stringer and AMT the only AFL quality players, and we know the formers reputation. Peter Wright and James Stewart as the two main forwards is like that year (2002) we played Trent Bartlett and Nathan Saunders in the same team. Rutten has had the awkward scenario of having a year of kind of being the main coach but without any real authority, and now will have Sheedy knocking on his door every second day telling him how he had a word with the lads and reckons James Hirds kid should be given a game for the fans. I expect Essendon to pump games into skinny outside mids, bemoan how their midfield is undersized and how they would pay anything to get a proven quality big body in there (although "pay anything" in this scenario is limited to the value of their third best pick and a future second), and overcorrect and make sure Andrew Phillips gets a farewell game to close out the season.

Adelaide are next worst. They're deplorable, but will still snag a couple of wins to beat out the Bombers.

Gold Coast are always good starters, and then about round 6 they fall in a heap and are proper bottom 2 quality. If they can extend the period they are good for to like round 12, and be semi competitive for the rest, then they are a chance to make their way out of the bottom 6.

Hawks and Sydney have very different approaches to rebuilding (Hawthorn seem to be rebuilding with reclaimed rubble from the Dingley tip because it used to be worth pick 1 and it would be a shame to see it go to waste) but both have good enough winning cultures and coaches to put together enough wins to scramble their way out of the 6. I'm not very hot on Hawthorn here tbh, but Sydney are the leading candidates to push one of the mediocre mid table sides like Melbourne or GWS into the bottom 6.

That leaves North, who I kind of like. They have some good talent, and I think they'll swing wildly from kind of good to very bad. I don't expect them to escape the bottom 6, but i do think they won't be bottom.

I'm going to tip Gold Coast to finish 12th and Sydney 10th, and taking their spots I'm going to nominate GWS and Carlton. GWS cannot improve, and i don't think they have the internal strength to stop the slump. Carlton as always are surrounded by hope and expectation, they really are due to make the next step, I'm going to say they have a few close losses, a few frustrating injuries and a few underperformers which means they stagnate and even go backwards a little.

Oh man, Essendon finishing bottom would be pretty excellent. But I can’t see any outcome other than North finishing last considering the self-inflicted exodus. In a way Adelaide and Essendon being horribly bad, but not getting the #1 would be pretty damn satisfying.

I hope as a club we take a ruthless approach to recruiting by targeting these clubs while they are at their lowest ebb. We absolutely must be in Fischer Mcasey’s ear now.

Louis Butler and Bailey Smith would have played with him at Sandringham Dragons, send them with Bont to wherever he hangs out.

Who else would take our fancy? Tarrant Thomas is locked up till 2022 and would be expensive, but he is also exactly what we need.

[Rocket Science]

Essington please because, well, Essington - but also for the extra degree of difficulty on the explanatory gymnastics forthcoming from the Pickering / Dunkley camp about pining to go there at season's end.

Reckon the Dees might just spoil the party though. Jeez they're a hollow, aimless void for whom there'd be more knives coming if only anyone gave a shit.

[Twodogs]

Fwiw:

I want Essendon to be the worst, and I think they'll pull it off.

The backline with the exception of Ridley and a cooked Hurley reads like Coburgs best players in a 34 point loss to Werribee: Ambrose, Redman, Zerk-Thatcher, Hind. Yuck. Midfield is goodbad, a bunch of good solid players but no real stars and not really a midfield that is greater than the sum of all parts. Forwardline is disgusting, Stringer and AMT the only AFL quality players, and we know the formers reputation. Peter Wright and James Stewart as the two main forwards is like that year (2002) we played Trent Bartlett and Nathan Saunders in the same team. Rutten has had the awkward scenario of having a year of kind of being the main coach but without any real authority, and now will have Sheedy knocking on his door every second day telling him how he had a word with the lads and reckons James Hirds kid should be given a game for the fans. I expect Essendon to pump games into skinny outside mids, bemoan how their midfield is undersized and how they would pay anything to get a proven quality big body in there (although "pay anything" in this scenario is limited to the value of their third best pick and a future second), and overcorrect and make sure Andrew Phillips gets a farewell game to close out the season.

Adelaide are next worst. They're deplorable, but will still snag a couple of wins to beat out the Bombers.

Gold Coast are always good starters, and then about round 6 they fall in a heap and are proper bottom 2 quality. If they can extend the period they are good for to like round 12, and be semi competitive for the rest, then they are a chance to make their way out of the bottom 6.

Hawks and Sydney have very different approaches to rebuilding (Hawthorn seem to be rebuilding with reclaimed rubble from the Dingley tip because it used to be worth pick 1 and it would be a shame to see it go to waste) but both have good enough winning cultures and coaches to put together enough wins to scramble their way out of the 6. I'm not very hot on Hawthorn here tbh, but Sydney are the leading candidates to push one of the mediocre mid table sides like Melbourne or GWS into the bottom 6.

That leaves North, who I kind of like. They have some good talent, and I think they'll swing wildly from kind of good to very bad. I don't expect them to escape the bottom 6, but i do think they won't be bottom.

I'm going to tip Gold Coast to finish 12th and Sydney 10th, and taking their spots I'm going to nominate GWS and Carlton. GWS cannot improve, and i don't think they have the internal strength to stop the slump. Carlton as always are surrounded by hope and expectation, they really are due to make the next step, I'm going to say they have a few close losses, a few frustrating injuries and a few underperformers which means they stagnate and even go backwards a little.

Great summary. Is Yuck a player or your assessment of their defence?

Michael Yuck maybe? Oh please God, let him be called Michael Yuck.

[Twodogs]

Oh man, Essendon finishing bottom would be pretty excellent. But I can’t see any outcome other than North finishing last considering the self-inflicted exodus. In a way Adelaide and Essendon being horribly bad, but not getting the #1 would be pretty damn satisfying.

I hope as a club we take a ruthless approach to recruiting by targeting these clubs while they are at their lowest ebb. We absolutely must be in Fischer Mcasey’s ear now.

Louis Butler and Bailey Smith would have played with him at Sandringham Dragons, send them with Bont to wherever he hangs out.

Who else would take our fancy? Tarrant Thomas is locked up till 2022 and would be expensive, but he is also exactly what we need.

Can I just say that North and Essendon finishing bottom 2 would be like the best Christmas present of all time. I hate them both so much.

[ledge]

And I thought I hated the bombers the most , I have competition.
I also think Nth will win it , followed by the bombers.

[Eastdog]

Can I just say that North and Essendon finishing bottom 2 would be like the best Christmas present of all time. I hate them both so much.

That would be great. Our 2 local neighbours 17th and 18th. We are now the best team out of the north-west Melbourne clubs.

[Twodogs]

That would be great. Our 2 local neighbours 17th and 18th. We are now the best team now out of the north-west Melbourne clubs.

The Western suburbs premiership!

[Eastdog]

The Western suburbs premiership!

Yep you could say that currently.

[Twodogs]

Yep you could say that currently.

When you think about it we've played North almost every season for 130+ years. That's a fair amount of history.

The bastards!

[Eastdog]

When you think about it we've played North almost every season for 130+ years. That's a fair amount of history.

The bastards!

Going back to the VFA. They are slightly closer geographically to us than Essendon. We have the Good Friday game against them as well.

[Dry Rot]

Watching NYE fireworks on TV reminds me of watching the Bombers play.

Lots of bright lights and razzle-dazzle, but ultimately an utterly hollow waste of time.

And pointless.

[Mofra]

That would be great. Our 2 local neighbours 17th and 18th. We are now the best team now out of the north-west Melbourne clubs.
I don't hate North, but I do think they'll end up on the bottom with Essendon second bottom.
North have lost Higgins (their best player of the past 3-4 years, bar Goldstein) and Cunnington is injury ravaged. Goldstein is 47 and on calf injury away from being constantly managed. They lost Brown who has the best workrate of any leading forward in the AFL.

Essendon lost Saad who has finised in the top 4 in thier past few B&Fs, have no tall forwards, a midget midfield and unhappy players who will either leave at the end of the year (Merrett) or would leave if they could (Hurley, Hooker).

[jeemak]

I don't hate North, but I do think they'll end up on the bottom with Essendon second bottom.
North have lost Higgins (their best player of the past 3-4 years, bar Goldstein) and Cunnington is injury ravaged. Goldstein is 47 and on calf injury away from being constantly managed. They lost Brown who has the best workrate of any leading forward in the AFL.

Essendon lost Saad who has finised in the top 4 in thier past few B&Fs, have no tall forwards, a midget midfield and unhappy players who will either leave at the end of the year (Merrett) or would leave if they could (Hurley, Hooker).

Isn't it grand?

[Twodogs]

I don't hate North, but I do think they'll end up on the bottom with Essendon second bottom.
North have lost Higgins (their best player of the past 3-4 years, bar Goldstein) and Cunnington is injury ravaged. Goldstein is 47 and on calf injury away from being constantly managed. They lost Brown who has the best workrate of any leading forward in the AFL.

Essendon lost Saad who has finised in the top 4 in thier past few B&Fs, have no tall forwards, a midget midfield and unhappy players who will either leave at the end of the year (Merrett) or would leave if they could (Hurley, Hooker).

I bet Hurley (and Essendon, they could have had a decent draft pick who would have been playing good footy by now) is feeling pretty happy with the decision he made after 2016 not to come to us.


Isn't it grand?

Happy *!*!*!*!ing days!