Rating our list 2020 Lewis Young 2

[Hotdog60]

With the retirement of Suckling we come to the end as we finish evaluating each player on our list starting with the highest number Lin Jong down to Lewis Young.
The poll will run for a week and when your post in the poll if you can give a reason on your thoughts so we can share your insights.
At the end we'll see how our list looks in the eyes of WOOF members.

[Hotdog60]

A few stats:
Age : 22
Height: 197cm
Weight: 96Kg
Games: 15

The Bulldogs' third pick in the 2016 NAB AFL Draft (selection 49 overall), Young was taken as key forward from South Australia but transitioned into a defensive role in his debut season at VU Whitten Oval. Just 17-years-old when drafted, the South Australian scraped into draft eligibility by just 11 days but showed major improvement this season. Young debuted in Round 17, 2017 against Carlton at the MCG, making a total of seven senior appearances in his debut season. The emerging defender played five senior games in 2019, and was one of 11 Bulldogs to make an AFL finals debut in that post-season. Young re-signed for two years in July, 2019, which means he will remain a Bulldog until at least the end of 2021.
LINK (https://www.westernbulldogs.com.au/players/1335/lewis-young#playerbio)

[Rocket Science]

*fires up a fresh batch of popcorn*

[GVGjr]

2021 is a big year for Young (no need for the Le anymore). He appears to be more at home as a defender but could be used as a key forward and occasional ruckman as well

Cordy, Gardner and Keath are all in his way for a regular senior spot so he has a lot to work on to become a regular senior player

If he isn't in the mix for senior selection early in the season he might struggle to get in. I hope he both earns his spot and given some chances to impress

[Danjul]

2021 is a big year for Young (no need for the Le anymore). He appears to be more at home as a defender but could be used as a key forward and occasional ruckman as well

Cordy, Gardner and Keath are all in his way for a regular senior spot so he has a lot to work on to become a regular senior player

If he isn't in the mix for senior selection early in the season he might struggle to get in. I hope he both earns his spot and given some chances to impress

In 2020 Naughton played 12 games and you could count his possessions on one hand in half of them. Two hands would be enough for the other half. Yes, I think he is a good player. Yes, I think he will be a superstar.

And yes, I think he can thank god that his name isn’t Young. (So can Bruce).

And yes, he hasn’t had a game where he has had as many possessions as Young had in his first.

[hujsh]

In 2020 Naughton played 12 games and you could count his possessions on one hand in half of them. Two hands would be enough for the other half. Yes, I think he is a good player. Yes, I think he will be a superstar.

And yes, I think he can thank god that his name isn’t Young. (So can Bruce).

And yes, he hasn’t had a game where he has had as many possessions as Young had in his first.

Naughton finished 4th in the B&F in his first year without being fit the whole year. Why do you place so much emphasis on possessions for every single player? It's not a useful metric in isolation. Young sometimes gets the ball but doesn't usually do a lot with it and I'd rather he get his defensive work sorted before celebrating how many times he got the ball.

This is how we get Matt Boyd declared our best midfielder this decade...

[Hotdog60]

I put him down for the VFL but in doing so I feel he won't get a long enough run at it to see if he makes it or not.
He is young (in age age) and if we go on the big guys take longer he hasn't reached his prime yet and he did come to us on the cusp of just being old enough to get drafted.
I don't think he has much more than being one of the foot soldiers if he did crack it and I have doubts on an extension next year.
I think the big forward can out muscle him and he falls into the intercept mold we have plenty of.

[Danjul]

Naughton finished 4th in the B&F in his first year without being fit the whole year. Why do you place so much emphasis on possessions for every single player? It's not a useful metric in isolation. Young sometimes gets the ball but doesn't usually do a lot with it and I'd rather he get his defensive work sorted before celebrating how many times he got the ball.

This is how we get Matt Boyd declared our best midfielder this decade...

In reverse order.

Matt Boyd was a great player and the team was always better with him in it. He was still capable of being best on ground in his last game.

If Young gets 2 games you know he will be dropped for the next 15, unlike Gardner or Richards or Bruce etc.

To me, getting the ball a significant number of times is a good indication of how both the team and the player are going.

When someone with exceptional talent averages 7 possessions per game over a whole season it suggests the problem goes beyond the player. When a player consistently gets 20+ possessions and then is dropped, to become ‘trade bait’ discussion on WOOF, it also suggests questionable selections (not referring to Young).

To be honest I have not got a clue about how the club uses metrics. And that’s coincided with the club’s crash in the middle of 2017, and its struggle to get out of the bottom half of the ladder since then. Only 7 weekends better than 8th in 3.5 years (54 games). Pretty depressing when you see how other clubs maintain cohesion and success better.

The Dogs have not finished a season in the top four since 2010. To me that is another metric indicating how the club is going. Richmond has finished top four in the last four seasons (they live with expectations, not hope).

I would love to see an explanation of how metrics are being used. That’s why I am here. I have discovered that 1%ers are pure gold, for example. I have discovered that opposition metrics are irrelevant also. Feel free to enlighten me further, then I might enjoy 2021.

[bornadog]

This thread is about Young.

I put him down as needs more time.

In 2020 he couldn't crack a game because he played very poorly in the scratch matches. I don't know if he was one of the players that came back from the COVID break out of shape, but he really needs to knuckle down and get himself super fit.

He has a great opportunity to snag a Key backman role as there aren't too many contenders. He has shown he has some talent, but he needs to be consistent and follow the coaches instructions.

I think he can make it, but it is all up to him to perform.

[jeemak]

Needs more time for mine.

He has to get as strong and as fit as he possibly can, and become a reliable true defender as well as an interceptor. I can't see him forging a career forward with us simply due to a lack of opportunity in the area, though he could possibly chop out in the ruck (again though, only if fit and strong).

[hujsh]

In reverse order.

Matt Boyd was a great player and the team was always better with him in it. He was still capable of being best on ground in his last game. Also played a huge part in winning that premiership.

If Young gets 2 games you know he will be dropped for the next 15, unlike Gardner or Richards or Bruce etc.

To me, getting the ball a significant number of times is a good indication of how both the team and the player are going.

When someone with exceptional talent averages 7 possessions per game over a whole season it suggests the problem goes beyond the player. When a player consistently gets 20+ possessions and then is dropped, to become ‘trade bait’ discussion on WOOF, it also suggests questionable selections (not referring to Young).

To be honest I have not got a clue about how the club uses metrics. And that’s coincided with the club’s crash in the middle of 2017, and its struggle to get out of the bottom half of the ladder since then. Only 7 weekends better than 8th in 3.5 years (54 games). Pretty depressing when you see how other clubs maintain cohesion and success better.

The Dogs have not finished a season in the top four since 2010. To me that is another metric indicating how the club is going. Richmond has finished top four in the last four seasons (they live with expectations, not hope).

I would love to see an explanation of how metrics are being used. That’s why I am here. I have discovered that 1%ers are pure gold, for example. I have discovered that opposition metrics are irrelevant also. Feel free to enlighten me further, then I might enjoy 2021.

Matt Boyd was at his best when he stopped playing in the middle and got less but more influential touches in the backline. He's a perfect case study of when less is more.

I'm sure there are plenty of things you can learn from various metrics in the AFL but there's also a lot you have to simply observe in person (or on TV as it has been this year).

For Young my questions would be:
How many possessions of his are from interceptions?
How many of his possessions were short/sideways kicks (non momentum building essentially)?
How did he perform defensively (harder one to pull up metrics on)?
Did his possessions lead to any turnovers/goals?
How did he perform as part of the overall defensive structure (no idea how you'd quantify this)?

Naughton may not have got many possessions but he wasn't the best user of the ball and clearly he did the rest of his job well down there. I'd back him down there over Young for sure.

I see some similarities between Young and Gardner with Young being more talented. Yet Gardner got more games this year. To me (and based on the occasional report here) this indicates that Young has been very bad with either form, fitness or conduct unless we believe the MC are arbitrary or play favourites (haha Roarke Smith skateboard goes brrr).

[Danjul]

For Young my questions would be:
How many possessions of his are from interceptions?
How many of his possessions were short/sideways kicks (non momentum building essentially)?
How did he perform defensively (harder one to pull up metrics on)?
Did his possessions lead to any turnovers/goals?
How did he perform as part of the overall defensive structure (no idea how you'd quantify this)?


I see some similarities between Young and Gardner with Young being more talented. Yet Gardner got more games this year. To me (and based on the occasional report here) this indicates that Young has been very bad with either form, fitness or conduct unless we believe the MC are arbitrary or play favourites (haha Roarke Smith skateboard goes brrr).

Young has played 15 games over 4 seasons. He plays 2 then misses 15. No opportunity to establish himself in the team. And I cannot rely on memory, so I will have to refer to average stats Per game to respond.

Keath: kicks 6.3 marks 3.9 disposals 10 contested marks 3.8. 1% 4.5. bounces 0.1. rebounds 2 clangers 0.2

and we all love him.

Young: kicks 7.5. marks 4.4. disposals 11.6 contested marks 3.9 1% 5.8. bounces 0.2. rebounds 2.7 clangers 0.1

Better in every category.

For comparison

Gardner: kicks 3.8 marks 2.4 disposals 7.3 contested marks 2.3. 1% 6.7 bounces 0. rebounds 0.8. clangers 0.2

Young is almost double in most categories.

Now to to test my memory- Young goes NOrth/south and Gardner goes east/west.

But Gardner gets selected consistently.

(And if the staff can’t get Young on the paddock it reflects badly on them. He was a potential champion.)

[Mofra]

Young has played 15 games over 4 seasons. He plays 2 then misses 15. No opportunity to establish himself in the team. And I cannot rely on memory, so I will have to refer to average stats Per game to respond.

Keath: kicks 6.3 marks 3.9 disposals 10 contested marks 3.8. 1% 4.5. bounces 0.1. rebounds 2 clangers 0.2

and we all love him.

Young: kicks 7.5. marks 4.4. disposals 11.6 contested marks 3.9 1% 5.8. bounces 0.2. rebounds 2.7 clangers 0.1

Better in every category.

For comparison

Gardner: kicks 3.8 marks 2.4 disposals 7.3 contested marks 2.3. 1% 6.7 bounces 0. rebounds 0.8. clangers 0.2

Young is almost double in most categories.

Now to to test my memory- Young goes NOrth/south and Gardner goes east/west.

But Gardner gets selected consistently.

(And if the staff can’t get Young on the paddock it reflects badly on them. He was a potential champion.)
This post simply proves that stats don't tell the story of a player. If it did, Joel Bowden would be considered 4 times the player Dale Morris was.

Lewis Young struggles one on one, the stats don't reflect that. He's 22 so still has time, but would want to push for more gametime this year. His future is as a backman given the options we now have forward of the ball.

[GVGjr]

A big shout out to Hotdog60 who stayed the course on these player threads

Thanks HD60

[bornadog]

A big shout out to Hotdog60 who stayed the course on these player threads

Thanks HD60

Ditto.

Great effort with a good analysis of our list, player by player and some good discussion by woofers.

[Hotdog60]

Thanks for the comments. I post the results next weekend to see how it ended up.

:)

[1eyedog]

Reads the ball wonderfully through the air and can play forward. A keeper and we must play him in front of Gardner.

[Danjul]

This post simply proves that stats don't tell the story of a player. If it did, Joel Bowden would be considered 4 times the player Dale Morris was.

Lewis Young struggles one on one, the stats don't reflect that. He's 22 so still has time, but would want to push for more gametime this year. His future is as a backman given the options we now have forward of the ball.


This post simply proves that stats don't tell the story of a player.

....... So no statistic is ever relevant? You have dismissed all aspects of Young’s history.

If it did, Joel Bowden would be considered 4 times the player Dale Morris was.

....... Nobody in the history of football has ever suggested anything like this. Stats show both were champions..

Lewis Young struggles one on one,

...... against everyone? Give examples. And yes, I know some experienced No 1 draft picks have given him a hard time.

the stats don't reflect that.

...... More likely to take a contested mark than Cordy, Gardner and others must weaken the generality of your claim.

He's 22 so still has time,

...... True. A stat used perfectly.

but would want to push for more gametime this year.

..... Again, I am in agreement 100% All Dogs supporters probably want this.

His future is as a backman

..... Always has been the best use of his ability.

given the options we now have forward of the ball.

..... Agreed, good summation of the current circumstances.


..... And, thanks. I appreciate your time.

[Danjul]

Reads the ball wonderfully through the air and can play forward. A keeper and we must play him in front of Gardner.

And the only Bulldog player to equal his club record of 19 marks in his first two games is......

...... Chris Grant.

Was a talent. What have they done to him?

[FrediKanoute]

I want him to be an AFL player, but he just seems to clumsy

[Mofra]

And the only Bulldog player to equal his club record of 19 marks in his first two games is......

...... Chris Grant.

Was a talent. What have they done to him?
Grant did it forward of the ball, he was a freak and the only player I've seen since that comes close is Aaron Naughton
Ghosty was behind only Dustin Martin for possessions in his first three games. The eyeball test still matters.

Lewie has a real chance to take a spot in the side, he just needs to take it because Cordy has question marks on his ability as a no 2 backman and Gardner has a million question marks in general.

[AshMac]

Outside of his first few games I haven’t seen anything overly impressive. A lot of players can have a strong start to a career and then drop away when they start to pick up attention. I’m reading between the lines but I thought toward the end of his first year he looked like he didn’t want the ball. I always got the feeling he was in his own head too much.

Would love him to break those shackles (if they exist) and get a good run at. In my view we commit to him as a player or cut him loose.

[Danjul]

Outside of his first few games I haven’t seen anything overly impressive. A lot of players can have a strong start to a career and then drop away when they start to pick up attention. I’m reading between the lines but I thought toward the end of his first year he looked like he didn’t want the ball. I always got the feeling he was in his own head too much.

Would love him to break those shackles (if they exist) and get a good run at. In my view we commit to him as a player or cut him loose.

He only played 7 games in his first year. And apart from the last they were excellent for an 18?? year old.

The previous week he had 7 one percenters, equal to Dale Morris. They also had the same number of possessions and marks ! Nobody questioned Morris’ endeavour.

In the game against GWS in round 22 in 2019, his first game back after being dropped for 20, he took 7 marks. That was the most for the whole team. His 17 possessions was more than double Cordy’s 7 and just behind Dureya’s 19, two popular backmen on Woof .

unfortunately he had less marks the following week, only 5. The same as Naughton. And Naughton had nearly as many disposals, 9 compared to Young’s 14.

He’s only had 2 games since then.

Your comments highlight the fact that everyone holds Young to an impossible standard.

[GVGjr]

He only played 7 games in his first year. And apart from the last they were excellent for an 18?? year old.

The previous week he had 7 one percenters, equal to Dale Morris. They also had the same number of possessions and marks ! Nobody questioned Morris’ endeavour.

In the game against GWS in round 22 in 2019, his first game back after being dropped for 20, he took 7 marks. That was the most for the whole team. His 17 possessions was more than double Cordy’s 7 and just behind Dureya’s 19, two popular backmen on Woof .

unfortunately he had less marks the following week, only 5. The same as Naughton. And Naughton had nearly as many disposals, 9 compared to Young’s 14.

He’s only had 2 games since then.

Your comments highlight the fact that everyone holds Young to an impossible standard.

Young needs to be given his chances especially if he is earning them, we can't keep hiding behind the "he's a young player" any longer
We've been guilty too often of bringing a player into the team, giving him a chance to impress and then having them fall back in the pecking order. Greene and Lynch came in and played and showed some promise before not really being given a game in their last 2 years. Schache signs an extension and almost immediately becomes a 'only break glass in the case of an emergency' option for us and unless Young starts to command a regular spot you would have to be concerned if he will still be at the club in 2022.

I know it's hard to get all the players into the best 22 but we need to have a plan that keeps developing players like Young

He needs to earn it but I hope we are finished with gifting under performing players like Bruce spots in the senior side unless they are earned as well

[jazzadogs]

One way I've rationalised Young's 'fall' is that he was given a debut based on his potential, and told to go out and have fun. He did, and he played well.

Then as he played more games and was in our system for longer he was expected to hold his spot in the defensive zone, nullify more one-on-one contests to slow down the opposition, and focus more on stopping his opponent than getting possessions.

I think the most accurate stats for how effective he was in his role would be:
- his one-on-one W/L record (I think champion data only release that selectively)
- his opponents scoring/direct impact on the game
- the whole team defense - number of inside 50s conceded, percentage of inside 50s that resulted in scores

I don't think marks and possessions are how a KPD would be judged internally, and I assume his poor performance in the areas above (as well as training, strength, fitness) are what has limited his opportunities. The fact he was reinvented as a forward is a bit of an indictment on his ability to stick to defensive structures IMO, and the MC hoping that they can utilise his clear talent in another area.

So my checklist for Lewis would be small, but with plenty of challenges for him:
- get fitter
- get stronger/improve bodywork in 1v1 situations
- learn the structures and stick to them

[Grantysghost]

Is there a place nowadays, with the focus on intensity, for the more laconic characters like Schache and Young? Clubs seem to put such a high value in intensity as a commodity it has the potential to cause intensity based segregation. You only have to look as far as the omnipresent plaudits for Bailey Smith and his obsessive work ethic to see what clubs covet nowadays.
Guess it opens a bigger more macro view / question of recruiting and testing as well.
Hard to develop it if they don't have it, but maybe that's where clubs need to improve. Bridge the gap between Schache and Smith otherwise we will lose talent like Josh more regularly.

[GVGjr]

Is there a place nowadays, with the focus on intensity, for the more laconic characters like Schache and Young? Clubs seem to put such a high value in intensity as a commodity it has the potential to cause intensity based segregation. You only have to look as far as the omnipresent plaudits for Bailey Smith and his obsessive work ethic to see what clubs covet nowadays.
Guess it opens a bigger more macro view / question of recruiting and testing as well.
Hard to develop it if they don't have it, but maybe that's where clubs need to improve. Bridge the gap between Schache and Smith otherwise we will lose talent like Josh more regularly.

Great question, I've tended to always appreciated the more intense players than the laconic ones but for some reason Young does not appear to be laconic to me. Schache might be the poster boy for laconic players but after signing him for 2 more years and recruiting of Bruce he's been pushed down the order. If he isn't reading the signs now he will really struggle.

[Grantysghost]

Great question, I've tended to always appreciated the more intense players than the laconic ones but for some reason Young does not appear to be laconic to me. Schache might be the poster boy for laconic players but after signing him for 2 more years and recruiting of Bruce he's been pushed down the order. If he isn't reading the signs now he will really struggle.

I guess the Tigers have set the mould haven't they with their intensity above all else game style. Guys like Castagna don't have half the talent of Schache but are 3 x premiership players.
To keep it on thread Young's struggles with his weight last season early had me thinking he was not in the "Smith" club of intensity, but having said that no one really is. Not everyone is wired like our Bailey.

[GVGjr]

I guess the Tigers have set the mould haven't they with their intensity above all else game style. Guys like Castagna don't have half the talent of Scache but are 3 x premiership players.
To keep it on thread Young's struggles with his weight last season early had me thinking he was not in the "Smith" club of intensity, but having said that no one really is. Not everyone is wired like our Bailey.

You would hope Young looks at how Bailey Williams turned things around and established himself as a senior footballer as a motivator for the 2021 season

[bornadog]

You would hope Young looks at how Bailey Williams turned things around and established himself as a senior footballer as a motivator for the 2021 season

I remember talking to Williams a few years ago and he was really worried about getting a regular game. He said there were too many players vying for the same role. I said to him he has to focus on his game, play well and an opportunity will arise.

Young has a great opportunity to cement himself in the backline as not many are putting their hand up.

My concern is, is he good enough?

[Axe Man]

- his one-on-one W/L record (I think champion data only release that selectively)

You can find this stat for every player on the AFL website. A tip for everyone - particularly Danjul - the StatsPro (https://www.afl.com.au/stats/stats-pro#/) section of the AFL Website has great stats for every player - AFL tables is useful for only very basic information.

Young's career Contested Defence Loss Percentage is 26.8%. As a comparison Cordy is known to be one of the worst regular defenders in the league in this stat and his career average is 29.6% (but a much improved 15.8% in 2020).

Overall just looking at Young's stats he comes off pretty well. Even some of the elite KPDs in the league have career Contested Defence Loss Percentages in the low 20s. Lewis rates elite or above average in some important areas for a KPD - spoils, intercept marks, 1 %s, rebound 50s, intercept possessions. Where he is below the standard is in disposal efficiency and kicking efficiency (deadly for a deep defender), tackles, contested marks and contested possessions.

What these stats tell me is that he has performed well as an intercept defender playing a fairly unaccountable role. However he needs to develop the contested side of his game and tidy up his kicking as we all know when the likes of Cordy of Gardner spray a kick it invariably results in a goal for the opposition. He needs look no further than Alex Keath as an intercept player that has successfully transitioned to a more lock down role.

Also, as has been pointed out many, many times, there are obviously reasons why Young has not been picked more other than what he has displayed on the field at AFL level. I hold out hope he can still become a player for us, however, if he was a lay down misere to make it I have no doubt another club would have come after him in the trade period and I suspect we would have listened to any halfway decent offer.

[Danjul]

You can find this stat for every player on the AFL website. A tip for everyone - particularly Danjul - the StatsPro (https://www.afl.com.au/stats/stats-pro#/) section of the AFL Website has great stats for every player - AFL tables is useful for only very basic information.

Young's ..... is below the standard is in disposal efficiency and kicking efficiency (deadly for a deep defender), tackles, contested marks and contested possessions.

He needs look no further than Alex Keath as an intercept player that has successfully transitioned to a more lock down role.



Thanks for this, I found it very interesting and I appreciate the detail.

When I looked at Keath’s figures with us I find:

disposals - 6 ,6 , 6 , 7 , 8, 8, ...... In one third of his games he is barely getting the ball. Contested or not. Best - 15

tackles - 0,0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0. ....... That’s right. 0 tackles in half his games. In six of the others he had only 1. That’s 14 games for 6 tackles, your measure for success.

Contested marks - rounds 2 to 18 ..... inclusive Keath took only 8. And never more than 1 in a game.

Similarly, Gardner took 1 contested mark for the season. Tackles - 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1 ....... that’s more than half of his games.

And he got consecutive games as a key defender.

This is not criticism of Keath or Gardner, but it again highlights how in any direct comparison everyone is better than Young.

Personally I think contested marks, for example, are overrated because they are rare and that’s why they are memorable. I like the way Keath plays close to his opponents. It is his most valuable characteristics and wish Cordy would follow his example.

[Nuggety Back Pocket]

The decision to recruit and play Gardner Bruce and Keath in 2020 didn’t improve our position on the ladder from 2019. Not having Footscray play last year certainly didn’t help both Lew Young and Schache gain more senior games.
The fact that both have been retained on the list would suggest that the MC still acknowledges their worth. Neither our key defence and forwards have shown that we are good enough to progress to a final 4 contender.
Both Young and Schache have shown the potential to improve our goal to goal line as a prerequisite to our team performances from what has been shown over the past two years.

[Axe Man]

The fact that both have been retained on the list would suggest that the MC still acknowledges their worth.

I imagine them being contracted and likely a lack of suitors played a significant part in them remaining on the list.

[Mofra]

I imagine them being contracted and likely a lack of suitors played a significant part in them remaining on the list.
Gardner is a good trainer by all accounts and would surely be on base salary, so there's the cap management issue to consider.

[Axe Man]

Gardner is a good trainer by all accounts and would surely be on base salary, so there's the cap management issue to consider.

This was only in reference to Young and Schache.

[AshMac]

He only played 7 games in his first year. And apart from the last they were excellent for an 18?? year old.

The previous week he had 7 one percenters, equal to Dale Morris. They also had the same number of possessions and marks ! Nobody questioned MorrisÂ’ endeavour.

In the game against GWS in round 22 in 2019, his first game back after being dropped for 20, he took 7 marks. That was the most for the whole team. His 17 possessions was more than double CordyÂ’s 7 and just behind DureyaÂ’s 19, two popular backmen on Woof .

unfortunately he had less marks the following week, only 5. The same as Naughton. And Naughton had nearly as many disposals, 9 compared to YoungÂ’s 14.

HeÂ’s only had 2 games since then.

Your comments highlight the fact that everyone holds Young to an impossible standard.

Did you just compare Lewis Young to Dale Morris because he had the same number of 1%'ers in a game?

Ridiculously long bow to draw that the expectations placed on him are "impossibly high". His final games of 2018 he was tentative and ineffective. Stats only work in an argument is they have substance and no. of 1%'ers just doesnt stack up in this instance.

[Danjul]

Did you just compare Lewis Young to Dale Morris because he had the same number of 1%'ers in a game?

Ridiculously long bow to draw that the expectations placed on him are "impossibly high". His final games of 2018 he was tentative and ineffective. Stats only work in an argument is they have substance and no. of 1%'ers just doesnt stack up in this instance.
What I compared are actual events.

If Young has the same number of marks in a game as Naughton, then he has the same number of marks as Naughton.
Most contributors here on Woof would argue that he hasn’t because only Naughton can have the same number of marks as Naughton.

When Young had 21 possessions and 9 marks in his first game that became a fact. When Morris took 52 (consecutive??) games to beat those measures of performance he does not cancel out Young’s achievement.

Now I am quite comfortable with people using a two step evaluation of performance. First, what is the number? Second, who got it. But the second shouldn’t cancel the first because it is the wrong name.

What Young has done on a number of occasions has been creditable and that should be recognised and appreciated. When he has a poor game that should be recognised. Fair is fair.

You referred to his final games of 2018, he only had two games in 2018. Games 8 and 9 for him.

They were pretty ordinary, 10 and 9 possessions- 7 kicks in each. And 14 and 10 one percenters.
For comparison, in his 13th game Morris had 2 kicks and 3 handballs. And 8 one percenters, his equal maximum for the year.

And was selected the next week.

And how did Morris do in his games 8 and 9? 11 and 9 possessions and 2 and 4 one percenters.

The comparison is: 19 possessions and 24 one percenters against 20 possessions and 6 one percenters. Yes, I see what you mean. One player is clearly rubbish and the other is a superstar.

And in his first 17 games Morris had 8 possessions 5 times. And 9 possessions 5 times. Looked at another way, in 11 games in a season Morris could not exceed the standard that you use to dismiss Young.

It was only after he had played 20 consecutive games that Morris started to generate consistent performances that were better than what you use to dismiss Young. And many people are confident that Young won’t get to 20.

And never once in his first 17 games, did Morris kick the ball 7 times. I like the fact that Young had a natural tendency to kick.

I like Morris and he became a true champion, but that only happened because people had faith in his talent and gave him time. Even when he was tentative and ineffective and worse than Young. In my opinion Morris would struggle to get a game if he was starting out now. It is unfortunate that people use what he eventually became as an excuse to diminish others.

[Mofra]

I like Morris and he became a true champion, but that only happened because people had faith in his talent and gave him time. Even when he was tentative and ineffective and worse than Young. In my opinion Morris would struggle to get a game if he was starting out now. It is unfortunate that people use what he eventually became as an excuse to diminish others.
Morris shut down Andrew McLeod in is first game, completely.
These stats comparisons simply reinforce that stats don't tell the whole story. If they did, Lynch would still be on our list.

[Mitcha]

Stats are not a defenders benchmark and never will be. Dale Morris had the uncanny ability to either win or neutralize most one v one contests he was involved in and that is why we love him. Lewy Young is quite poor in this area and until he improves this part of his game he will struggle to play regular senior football. (And yes I am aware that Cordy is not great in this area either).

[Happy Days]

I can't think of a less apt comparison for Young than Morris. Young's whole deal is playing off/in front of his man and looking to intercept. I reckon the only time Morris got goal side of an opponent was when he happened to fall to Buddy's left while tackling him in the grand final.

[Danjul]

Morris shut down Andrew McLeod in is first game, completely.
These stats comparisons simply reinforce that stats don't tell the whole story. If they did, Lynch would still be on our list.

McLeod had 7 bounces in that game. He only exceeded that number 4 times (max 9) in 330 games. He also got a goal.

Shut down completely? Don’t think so. That’s exaggeration. But OK.

Neutralised, maybe more accurate.


possibly relevant,
the Dogs had 35 scoring shots so were generally dominant. Confirmed by the fact that the Dogs had 100 more disposals.

Scott West had 38. Even Gia had a day out with 21 kicks, the most in his first 100 games.

5 Adelaide players had over 15 possessions, 5 of the Dogs had more than Adelaide‘s best (only 25).


I’m not criticising Morris or any other player. Just presenting facts which make me believe that many others don’t, beyond the fact that some players are/were great. The stats can paint a more nuanced picture than Using selective memory, which is not in the club’s best interest if it goes beyond WOOF.

Personally, I just want all recruits to be given a chance contribute to the club’s success (the way Bruce was).

[jeemak]

It's not only stats you can selectively pull from the interwebs these days, here's a match report of the game:

https://www.smh.com.au/sport/morris-makes-impressive-debut-20050425-gdl6ve.html

Pretty emphatic endorsement of Morris's performance.

So while seven bounces is great for McLeod, I think the major theme for his review the following week would have been how to make sure when tagged he can still get his hands on the ball as a prime mover for Adelaide.

[jeemak]

Is the hypothesis that not only are contributors to this web page not putting enough emphasis on stats accumulated, but it's also the entire industry and most who follow and comment on it who are making the error?

I can understand the frustration of players seeming to be measured differently on face value, though not every player plays the same role in the team and not every role is equal.

Additionally, a one percenter for spoils awarded doesn't mean the spoils were the same or enacted under the same circumstances. A running bounce in open space isn't the same as a running bounce bursting away from congestion after a disputed ball, but they're running bounces nonetheless.

That's why people are saying you need to add some context to the statistics you see, rather than just presenting them as a definitive measure of what took place on the day.

[Danjul]

Is the hypothesis that not only are contributors to this web page not putting enough emphasis on stats accumulated, but it's also the entire industry and most who follow and comment on it who are making the error?

I can understand the frustration of players seeming to be measured differently on face value, though not every player plays the same role in the team and not every role is equal.

Additionally, a one percenter for spoils awarded doesn't mean the spoils were the same or enacted under the same circumstances. A running bounce in open space isn't the same as a running bounce bursting away from congestion after a disputed ball, but they're running bounces nonetheless.

That's why people are saying you need to add some context to the statistics you see, rather than just presenting them as a definitive measure of what took place on the day.

I have not done that.

What i have said is Young has played some good footy and I don’t think he has received sufficient credit.

I have raised stats as a way of reinforcing that conclusion. And every reference to a measure of performance has been dismissed.

So here is my opinion:

When Lewis Young played in his first 2 AFL games as an 18 year old and had 37 disposals (8 contested) 19 marks and 8 one percenters - 5 easy to address measures of a footballer, he had rare start to his career and showed special talent. And he has been quite reasonable is most other games. I am very disappointed in what the club has done to benefit from that opportunity. I also think the club is worse off for his extended absences since his debut.

So nail your flag to the mast.

Be the first to give a contrasting opinion supported by evidence.

[hujsh]

I have not done that.

What i have said is Young has played some good footy and I don’t think he has received sufficient credit.

I have raised stats as a way of reinforcing that conclusion. And every reference to a measure of performance has been dismissed.

So here is my opinion:

When Lewis Young played in his first 2 AFL games as an 18 year old and had 37 disposals (8 contested) 19 marks and 8 one percenters - 5 easy to address measures of a footballer, he had rare start to his career and showed special talent. And he has been quite reasonable is most other games. I am very disappointed in what the club has done to benefit from that opportunity. I also think the club is worse off for his extended absences since his debut.

So nail your flag to the mast.

Be the first to give a contrasting opinion supported by evidence.


I can't be bothered to do so but you could make the same post and replace Lewis Young with Jason Tutt using his initial stats. No one is going to argue he didn't have a good first 2 games.

One problem with this line of reasoning is that all your statistics point to past performance (and while I have issues with the validity of some of these let's put it to the side for now). What evidence is there that in 2020 he deserved any game time beyond what he got? The frustrating conclusion is there is none and we don't know if that's because he didn't deserve them or because he was ignored since we have no real footage and limited reports on his performances in scratch matches and such.

[jazzadogs]

I have not done that.

What i have said is Young has played some good footy and I don’t think he has received sufficient credit.

I have raised stats as a way of reinforcing that conclusion. And every reference to a measure of performance has been dismissed.

So here is my opinion:

When Lewis Young played in his first 2 AFL games as an 18 year old and had 37 disposals (8 contested) 19 marks and 8 one percenters - 5 easy to address measures of a footballer, he had rare start to his career and showed special talent. And he has been quite reasonable is most other games. I am very disappointed in what the club has done to benefit from that opportunity. I also think the club is worse off for his extended absences since his debut.

So nail your flag to the mast.

Be the first to give a contrasting opinion supported by evidence.


Stats aren't the only form of evidence. A match report which says Dale Morris effectively shut down Mcleod in his first game is also evidence. People who watched the game and recall his performance can provide the evidence of what they saw.

Plenty of people are surprised that Young hasn't played more, but you can't argue that he should be playing in 2020 based on stats from 2017.

[jeemak]

I have not done that.

What i have said is Young has played some good footy and I don’t think he has received sufficient credit.

I have raised stats as a way of reinforcing that conclusion. And every reference to a measure of performance has been dismissed.

So here is my opinion:

When Lewis Young played in his first 2 AFL games as an 18 year old and had 37 disposals (8 contested) 19 marks and 8 one percenters - 5 easy to address measures of a footballer, he had rare start to his career and showed special talent. And he has been quite reasonable is most other games. I am very disappointed in what the club has done to benefit from that opportunity. I also think the club is worse off for his extended absences since his debut.

So nail your flag to the mast.

Be the first to give a contrasting opinion supported by evidence.


He definitely did play two good games to start his career, but he tapered off in his first season thereafter due to shaky kicking and not being allowed to intercept as freely because teams having watched him figured it's best not to let him do that.

Career wise on basic stats alone, he sits pretty close to Cordy. However, he averages roughly 50% more clangers a game than Cordy does and goes at 65% disposal efficiency versus Cordy's 78%.

Against Keath from a career perspective, the story is pretty much the same. 30% more clangers versus Keath, and Keath goes at 77% disposal efficiency.

Interestingly at the age of 21, which is the same age Young was at the end of the 2020 season Cordy was going at a couple more possessions than Young has for his career, and at 84% disposal efficiency with Young delivering more than 70% more clangers than Cordy had.

The story here is possibly that Cordy has slipped, and I don't think you'll find a poster on this site that doesn't think that's the case. However, it doesn't mean that because of that Young should be getting a game because of how well he played week one and two of his career because at that time Cordy was playing pretty good footy and was safer with the footy.

But again, that's only part of the story because what the stats don't tell you is what role each of these players have been playing over time and how we set the ground up etc.......or whatever else you care to think about.

[Danjul]

He definitely did play two good games to start his career, but he tapered off in his first season thereafter due to shaky kicking and not being allowed to intercept as freely because teams having watched him figured it's best not to let him do that.

Career wise on basic stats alone, he sits pretty close to Cordy. However, he averages roughly 50% more clangers a game than Cordy does and goes at 65% disposal efficiency versus Cordy's 78%.

Against Keath from a career perspective, the story is pretty much the same. 30% more clangers versus Keath, and Keath goes at 77% disposal efficiency.

Interestingly at the age of 21, which is the same age Young was at the end of the 2020 season Cordy was going at a couple more possessions than Young has for his career, and at 84% disposal efficiency with Young delivering more than 70% more clangers than Cordy had.

The story here is possibly that Cordy has slipped, and I don't think you'll find a poster on this site that doesn't think that's the case. However, it doesn't mean that because of that Young should be getting a game because of how well he played week one and two of his career because at that time Cordy was playing pretty good footy and was safer with the footy.

But again, that's only part of the story because what the stats don't tell you is what role each of these players have been playing over time and how we set the ground up etc.......or whatever else you care to think about.

I like that reply, thanks.

[Danjul]

Stats aren't the only form of evidence. A match report which says Dale Morris effectively shut down Mcleod in his first game is also evidence. People who watched the game and recall his performance can provide the evidence of what they saw.

Plenty of people are surprised that Young hasn't played more, but you can't argue that he should be playing in 2020 based on stats from 2017.

I haven’t done that. I use his first two games to suggest that he has talent.

His career stats with the Dogs are reasonable (to me), but easily dismissed unless placed against what people see as an acceptable standard. The problem is finding a standard which is free of emotion already attached.

If I select Keath, as others have suggested he is competing with Young, I see:

Keath with consecutive games with the Dogs. Disposals- 179 Marks - 70 Clangers- 23. 1% - 81 tackles 15

Young (3 less games ) with the Dogs. Disposals- 174 Marks - 66 Clangers- 39 1% - 87. Tackles 24

On these stats Young warrants interest. But what is more valuable, 15 more tackles and 1% for Young or 16 less clangers for Keath.

Personally I believe all 3 stats are in Young’s favour because they reflect the fact that he has played more closely to opponents, which has been my observation. And that suits our key position needs.


Keath was was a great pick up, no doubt. I think he should be playing with Young, not competing for a position. He would be a great mentor for him.

Also, like Bruce, Keath has the advantage of playing at another club where he was subjected to less scrutiny by Dogs supporters. Their view of him is boosted by the knowledge that he was getting 60% more disposals and marks per game in 2019 with Adelaide. Similar to us knowing Bruce got a lot more goals at the Saints. They have expectations in their favour too.


Not criticising anyone, just trying to understand the reality.

[Danjul]

I can't be bothered to do so but you could make the same post and replace Lewis Young with Jason Tutt using his initial stats. No one is going to argue he didn't have a good first 2 games.

One problem with this line of reasoning is that all your statistics point to past performance (and while I have issues with the validity of some of these let's put it to the side for now). What evidence is there that in 2020 he deserved any game time beyond what he got? The frustrating conclusion is there is none and we don't know if that's because he didn't deserve them or because he was ignored since we have no real footage and limited reports on his performances in scratch matches and such.

I’ve done it for you.

Tutt had an exceptional first game, 26 possessions. If I remember correctly his first few kicks were goals.

But unlike Young he had 18 games with the Dogs in seasons 3 and 4 whereas Young got 6. In his third he missed a block of 8 games, after a 1 possession game (injury?) , before coming back to finish the season, rounds 15-22. .

In his 3 and 4th season with us Tutt consistently got around 15 possessions but never got over 20 after his first game.

When he went to Carlton his output went back up. He played 13 games (again in blocks such as rounds 14-23 ). In his second and third games with Carlton he had 23 and 24 possessions, they would have been happy with that. In round 21 he repeated his 26 disposals in his debut game with us.

I don’t know why his career suddenly came to an end shortly after, but I don’t see much similarity with Young.

Tutt had career best 26 possessions in his first game and his close to last, game 37.

Will Young do that?

[Mofra]

I have not done that.

What i have said is Young has played some good footy and I don’t think he has received sufficient credit.

I have raised stats as a way of reinforcing that conclusion. And every reference to a measure of performance has been dismissed.

So here is my opinion:

When Lewis Young played in his first 2 AFL games as an 18 year old and had 37 disposals (8 contested) 19 marks and 8 one percenters - 5 easy to address measures of a footballer, he had rare start to his career and showed special talent. And he has been quite reasonable is most other games. I am very disappointed in what the club has done to benefit from that opportunity. I also think the club is worse off for his extended absences since his debut.

So nail your flag to the mast.

Be the first to give a contrasting opinion supported by evidence.

He was playing very loose in his early games though - the fact is if he were to be selected in the side, he would need to do so as a legitimate KPD and not as a loose interceptor. Again, stats vs reality.

The kid is only 22 - there is still plenty of development left. Personally if he's not best 22 by the end of the year but has shown good signs I'm not willing to write him off. Moz was only rookied as a 22 year old by way of comparison.

I'm sure plenty of us remember Fozzie who was a classic late bloomer but became an absolute rock at CHB for us.

[The Pie Man]

Can you think of anyone where you thought 'ahh, he's a bit soft*' at some point early in their career, and they overcome it and 'made it'?

I don't see it.

*I get that's a horrible term to throw around about senior footballers, they're all brave to cross the line and play. Some have a greater 'urgency at the contest' than others (to borrow a Ross Lyonism)

[Bulldog Joe]

I’ve done it for you.

Tutt had an exceptional first game, 26 possessions. If I remember correctly his first few kicks were goals.

But unlike Young he had 18 games with the Dogs in seasons 3 and 4 whereas Young got 6. In his third he missed a block of 8 games, after a 1 possession game (injury?) , before coming back to finish the season, rounds 15-22. .

In his 3 and 4th season with us Tutt consistently got around 15 possessions but never got over 20 after his first game.

When he went to Carlton his output went back up. He played 13 games (again in blocks such as rounds 14-23 ). In his second and third games with Carlton he had 23 and 24 possessions, they would have been happy with that. In round 21 he repeated his 26 disposals in his debut game with us.

I don’t know why his career suddenly came to an end shortly after, but I don’t see much similarity with Young.

Tutt had career best 26 possessions in his first game and his close to last, game 37.

Will Young do that?

If Jason Tutt is the benchmark for anything, it will be failure.

Despite the stats Tutt never was a true AFL standard player. He was a ground ball player without the ability to handle the ball cleanly.

He had kicking ability, but fumbled always under pressure. Looked good when things were easy, but every other time he was a liability.

[AshMac]

What I compared are actual events.

If Young has the same number of marks in a game as Naughton, then he has the same number of marks as Naughton.
Most contributors here on Woof would argue that he hasn’t because only Naughton can have the same number of marks as Naughton.

When Young had 21 possessions and 9 marks in his first game that became a fact. When Morris took 52 (consecutive??) games to beat those measures of performance he does not cancel out Young’s achievement.

Now I am quite comfortable with people using a two step evaluation of performance. First, what is the number? Second, who got it. But the second shouldn’t cancel the first because it is the wrong name.

What Young has done on a number of occasions has been creditable and that should be recognised and appreciated. When he has a poor game that should be recognised. Fair is fair.

You referred to his final games of 2018, he only had two games in 2018. Games 8 and 9 for him.

They were pretty ordinary, 10 and 9 possessions- 7 kicks in each. And 14 and 10 one percenters.
For comparison, in his 13th game Morris had 2 kicks and 3 handballs. And 8 one percenters, his equal maximum for the year.

And was selected the next week.

And how did Morris do in his games 8 and 9? 11 and 9 possessions and 2 and 4 one percenters.

The comparison is: 19 possessions and 24 one percenters against 20 possessions and 6 one percenters. Yes, I see what you mean. One player is clearly rubbish and the other is a superstar.

And in his first 17 games Morris had 8 possessions 5 times. And 9 possessions 5 times. Looked at another way, in 11 games in a season Morris could not exceed the standard that you use to dismiss Young.

It was only after he had played 20 consecutive games that Morris started to generate consistent performances that were better than what you use to dismiss Young. And many people are confident that Young won’t get to 20.

And never once in his first 17 games, did Morris kick the ball 7 times. I like the fact that Young had a natural tendency to kick.

I like Morris and he became a true champion, but that only happened because people had faith in his talent and gave him time. Even when he was tentative and ineffective and worse than Young. In my opinion Morris would struggle to get a game if he was starting out now. It is unfortunate that people use what he eventually became as an excuse to diminish others.

Firstly - it’s worth pointing out no one I have seen, and certainly not my post is using a comparison of Lew Young and Morris to “diminish” Young.

Secondly - you are obsessed w possessions and I find them to the most part to be irrelevant. No. of kicks means nothing without the context of efficacy. No. of marks means nothing without understanding the context and situation of those marks.

Thirdly - my original comment had to do with Lewis Young’s body language and my perception of his intensity during his games. He could play 1 game or 100 games and the hunger, competitiveness and intensity is comparable (across a whole game). I’d love him to come out and cement his spot on the list - he has a lot of physical attributes which give him everything he needs to succeed in that department. Again, and in case it still isn’t clear - I get the impression he is in his own head more than anything else holding him back.

Lastly - I’m not sure there is a single number for evaluating performance. It’s a combination of stats; yes possessions - where they were on the ground, when in the game they happened and efficiency - but there is also an unstructured analysis - a gut feel - it’s Mabo, it’s the constitution - and an essay quoting possession stats with zero context on them just doesn’t cover enough of the equation.