What builds belief? Wins? Or Losses?

[mjp]

As we draw closer to the game vs the orange - and with the background of the recent news article comparing the start of our season in 2016 to these past five weeks - and I have been wondering whether wins or losses build more belief in footy teams.

I mean, of course you have to win to believe...but.

I have always had the feeling that the loss to Geelong back in 2016 was absolutely key to the premiership. We played well that day. Copped a heap of injuries but didn't give in...and ultimately lost the 'battle' - then went on to win the 'war' (though that is pretty inappropriate terminology at any time and REALLY inappropriate with ANZAC Day approaching).

Did that 'LOSS' - because it really showed the players (and coaches no doubt) that when effort was strong and we were executing the numbers to the footy based game-style, we could beat 'anyone, anywhere'. And would the players or coaches have given it a second thought if we had gone on to win the game or would it have been 'great job, 4-points, onto the next week we go'.

I wonder if the Saints would have been better off in the game versus Richmond if their comeback victory against WC had ultimately been unsuccessful....and instead of the internal message been 'we can do it' it had been 'We can do it IF....'.

Where is the challenge coming from THIS WEEK? Is it history? Is it defending a forward of the quality of Greene? Is it coping with Kelly back playing his inside/outside role?

[1eyedog]

I think we would have won that game at the Cattery if Jack and Libba had of played 4 quarters. Not that it matters I get what you mean.

I think wins away against good opposition cannot be understated. The Sydney win up there is 2015 is a case in point. I think that was a massive turning point for the new Bulldogs era. It drew the group together, inspired the supporters who rode the team home for the remainder of 2015 (all the way to the G for our EF against Adelaide). That win for me had tremendous power and Bevo and Murph rode it all the way and we rode with them.

Outside of the 4 points it's really a combination of things I think, much of it to do with the inner machinations of a football club. Building belief. Honourable losses can be turned into positives and are a great learning curve, but team synergy, real mateship and trust and love for each other i.e. playing as a connected unit is critical, and, for me, this comes down to a combination of player personalities i.e. how they relate on a social level (a life level), and this is why a no dickhead policy is critical.

The whole Dunkley / Treloar thing for example is bloody fantastic and I think this relationship will be (already is) a determining factor why Dunks and Treloar are playing so well (and perhaps why Dunks may choose to stay at the Dogs at the end of this year (and possibly the next when his contract is up). For me, this is an example of solid citizens coming together, and I believe this is where the personality and approach of the coach is critical. Bevo has fostered this togetherness, he thrives on it. He is a mountain when it comes to bringing young men together with love and care, and it's funny just how effective his approach is.

Years ago when I played footy there wasn't really any love or outward expression of emotion at any of the clubs I played at, but there is now at grass roots level. Bevo has shown that this approach is highly effective and we're reaping the dividends. He really is at the frontier of this stuff, and the players are responding to it. We have a I don't care about external factors, we love and die for each other on the footy field, powerful stuff and the closest you can get to the camaraderie of war amongst a group a young men.

Happy times.

[comrade]

I think the challenge will be internal. We should want to keep pushing as hard as possible to show the footballing world we are true contenders. Travelling interstate, hated rivals, a game with Richmond on the horizon. If we can’t get up for this and put in a good performance, we’re not winning the whole thing.

[Bulldog Joe]

That is a great question.

I am certainly on the side of success builds belief, but easy success just brings complacency.

I agree that the Geelong loss in 2016 was critical in building that belief, but feel that a win then would not have harmed the ultimate success for 2016. What that game did show was the capacity and a narrow victory would have also done that, much as the Sydney win in 2015.

The St Kilda win over West Coast was a different sense as that despite the turnaround, was not a win that they had to fight all the way for. They were clearly unprepared for Richmond, but had simply put the Tigers on notice, that turning up was not enough.

[comrade]

As an aside, speaking of that Geelong game: what sort of freak is Tom Liberatore. Came back from syndesmosis surgery after just 41 days and was critical in every one of our 4 cut throat wins.

[The bulldog tragician]

Really interesting question. The loss v the Cats in 2016 was...the best loss I've ever seen! It was the week after Mitch Wallis broke his leg. I vividly remember in the press conference in the leadup, someone asked Bevo if this was an end to our premiership dream. He said: 'You try telling them they can't win it.' I remember feeling shocked, amazed, proud...and we then played like contenders. I knew this group was really special at that moment..

There's another kind of loss too - the loss that shows (or feels like it shows) that you're a pretender. I remember us heading down to the Cattery in 2008 as one of the challengers to the crown, after an exciting start to the season. We were annihilated, it somehow felt like we were shown to be not in that league and that seeped into our consciousness.

In 2008-10 we lost our first finals after finishing top four. Again, it felt like we were imposters when it came to the big time, and even though we came back to feature in prelims, something had eroded in our self-belief. That is why that 2016 win v the Eagles was so magnificent (of course we'd have been out immediately if we lost) but it forged something that carried us through that month of footy.

[Ozza]

OP poses an interesting question and example.

If I recall correctly, from the 'Outsiders' doco, we do get a look at Bevo's post game address, where is was upbeat and proud of their efforts at Geelong.

I think 2015 and 2016 were littered with examples of wins and losses that generated belief.
The 2015 pre season win v Collingwood and then round 1 v West Coast.
Sydney in Sydney (both seasons)
The Hawthorn loss in Round 3 2016....showed how close we were to the best, but gave us that little bit to chase. Perhaps losing that one in a close one, gave us that bit extra killer instinct for the final?
Port Adelaide over in Adelaide was another one that comes to mind, where we outlasted them in a great game.

I think that whether they are wins or losses, belief is probably built by the 'how' you do it.
This current team is very different to '16, in that I think this team has the depth of talent, where the bar is set so high amongst the group and it is so competitive to get into the seniors, that they are all pushing each other and there is a underlying confidence.

The Richmond game will tell us what we need to know.

I actually think this weeks game is a risk. First time travelling, been up for 5 weeks, 1 degree in Canberra on a Friday night.....I expect we win, but I'm nervous.

[bornadog]

I think losses can build belief, if you feel the loss was unlucky. If you were in the game for long periods, but threw it away with bad misses for goal, or like that 2016 Geelong loss, losing Libba and Macrae when we were seemingly on top of Geelong. The players will think, well we were good enough, but those injuries, or those close misses was our fault and we know we should have won.

However, answering the OP, I think both a win and a loss can build belief, depending on the game, the circumstances and what happens in the game, so it is not one or the other.

This year, the West Coast game really made us believe as we came from behind and WC looked like taking that game out, but some how we never stopped trying and we got over the line. Currently our confidence is sky high, and hopefully we can stay up there.

[SonofScray]

I think perhaps it’s the narrative we tell ourselves about the performance and not the result that generates that belief, or really takes us down a peg.

My feeling since 2015, with the exception of perhaps a few patches where we’ve looked awful, is that we are good enough on our day. 2015/2016 I thought we had enough of “our days” in us. The Sydney wins were really telling on that front. The Geelong loss is 2016 was similar, I remember saying to a mate that we’ve probably just taken one too many knocks there and the prospect of the flag might be out of reach, we’d run out of days, but were we to find some, we had two hands on the cup. The Hawks game, “we’ll roll them next time.”

West Coast this year. Was affirming.

Hopefully tomorrow night and then the Tigers game will frank our form.Put us in no doubt that it’s purely about performance. Our best beats your best. Then it’s just about bringing our best often enough and when it matters most.

[DOG GOD]

I agree, but this week is 100% win at all costs because we (the dogs) literally hate their guts. We don’t just want to beat them, but beat them into oblivion. The smugness, and the attitude of that team needs a boot to the face, and I’m hopeful we have very pointed studs this week.

Next week against the Tigers, we are coming up against the best on the holy grail of grounds. We need to put in a performance that shows them and ourselves that we believe. It’s about the attitude we bring. Belief comes from performance. We may lose, but how do we lose? 10 goals? It suddenly weaps disbelief in being able to battle it with the big boys. Everything we have done so far this year means squat if we cow down to GWS in the fight, and bend over to Richmond the following week.

2 huge weeks to play out.

[WBFC4FFC]

I think we would have won that game at the Cattery if Jack and Libba had of played 4 quarters. Not that it matters I get what you mean.

I think wins away against good opposition cannot be understated. The Sydney win up there is 2015 is a case in point. I think that was a massive turning point for the new Bulldogs era. It drew the group together, inspired the supporters who rode the team home for the remainder of 2015 (all the way to the G for our EF against Adelaide). That win for me had tremendous power and Bevo and Murph rode it all the way and we rode with them.

Outside of the 4 points it's really a combination of things I think, much of it to do with the inner machinations of a football club. Building belief. Honourable losses can be turned into positives and are a great learning curve, but team synergy, real mateship and trust and love for each other i.e. playing as a connected unit is critical, and, for me, this comes down to a combination of player personalities i.e. how they relate on a social level (a life level), and this is why a no dickhead policy is critical.

The whole Dunkley / Treloar thing for example is bloody fantastic and I think this relationship will be (already is) a determining factor why Dunks and Treloar are playing so well (and perhaps why Dunks may choose to stay at the Dogs at the end of this year (and possibly the next when his contract is up). For me, this is an example of solid citizens coming together, and I believe this is where the personality and approach of the coach is critical. Bevo has fostered this togetherness, he thrives on it. He is a mountain when it comes to bringing young men together with love and care, and it's funny just how effective his approach is.

Years ago when I played footy there wasn't really any love or outward expression of emotion at any of the clubs I played at, but there is now at grass roots level. Bevo has shown that this approach is highly effective and we're reaping the dividends. He really is at the frontier of this stuff, and the players are responding to it. We have a I don't care about external factors, we love and die for each other on the footy field, powerful stuff and the closest you can get to the camaraderie of war amongst a group a young men.

Happy times.

That last paragraph is spot-on.

A colleague of mine was chatting to Bevo a few days after the GF win at Melb Airport. Bevo was on his way to Bali to surf with some mates. My colleague said you can tell after a 5 minute chat with Bevo he just operates as if he's still coaching St.Bede's/Mentone still. A real local footy club feel.

[AshMac]

Honestly, I hope we’re past this. I hope GWS are a good team, but a real threat of years gone by. I hope we treat it as any other team - ready to address any aggression and focussed on our style of footy.

That being said - if it’s on, I hope we’re ready!

[1eyedog]

That last paragraph is spot-on.

A colleague of mine was chatting to Bevo a few days after the GF win at Melb Airport. Bevo was on his way to Bali to surf with some mates. My colleague said you can tell after a 5 minute chat with Bevo he just operates as if he's still coaching St.Bede's/Mentone still. A real local footy club feel.

Bevo's awesome. He just engages you. I've spoken to him a few times at the club and once in Anglesea and had him sign a professionally drawn cartoon image of him holding the cup while surfing for my old man's birthday. He loved it. Took a picture of it and spoke to me and my kids for a good 15 minutes after training. Just wanted to know all about my kids and the story behind us (and my Dad) supporting the Bulldogs.

[Mofra]

Neither?
I'll say Trust. Born from 'little moments' in games.

It was 2018 or 2019, late in a game at Marvel and an opposition mid had the ball. English who had just rucked all game gave chase at 100% effort, late in the fourth quarter. On the back of that every teammate would have absolute trust in Tim giving his all at any time during the game.

If we want a more recent example, against West Coast late in the game we get a break and Bontempelli marks the ball 40m on an angle for a set shot on goal. Bont's one knock is his set shot kicking. A player (English) is running towards goal and Bont could have passed it off, but he goes back and takes his full 30 seconds and nails the set shot. It ices the game for us.

What we have now is a host of players who have demonstrated, at different times, that they can be 'trusted' by their teammates. I think that's the key behind our current style of play.

[SonofScray]

Did last night’s win build belief?

We did the business in a game where we had some adversity with injury, were down a little on the sort of effort we have been seeing but still found enough to bust it open and break them.

The performance was fairly mediocre in the grand scheme of things. Less about the team’s belief and more perhaps about a few individuals.

[Bulldog Joe]

Did last night’s win build belief?

We did the business in a game where we had some adversity with injury, were down a little on the sort of effort we have been seeing but still found enough to bust it open and break them.

The performance was fairly mediocre in the grand scheme of things. Less about the team’s belief and more perhaps about a few individuals.

I think that is the type of win that certainly helps.

While not getting headed after the first goal, they were under pressure throughout. When we lost Dunkley and English the game was still on the line, but they found another gear when it was really needed.

[SonofScray]

I think that is the type of win that certainly helps.

While not getting headed after the first goal, they were under pressure throughout. When we lost Dunkley and English the game was still on the line, but they found another gear when it was really needed.

Agree. We always looked like we had that extra little bit to pull away if we wanted. That we did it with the bench situation and where a team was hanging on a little longer than we might have expected was good.

[DOG GOD]

Next week against the tigers is the game for mine. MCG, Friday night, what should be a pretty big crowd and tv audience.
The Tigers will be hunting us for sure. Dunks/English will be huge outs.

I noticed on Sportsbet yesterday the Tigers were $1.70 favourites. Now after the Dunks/English injuries, they have dropped to $1.58

It’s going to be a HUGE game, both mentally and physically. We need to be switched on 100% from the first bounce, and we need to come out hungry. For mine, the belief will shine through in THIS game. Reigning premiers on their home turf. Win this, and the belief should be sky high.