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View Full Version : Bulldogs, Saints, Premiership Clock, Were We Been & Going With Skill & Luck



bulldogtragic
26-04-2021, 03:15 PM
I started doing some reading as I wanted to be able to understand the variables that go into ‘The Premiership Clock’. What are/were the decisions in a decade long period between two clubs that have made on field and off field consequences. The concept that a club moves ‘passed midnight’ and automatically moves around is at best a naive concept that some folks in the media push. The idea of indicating where a club is at a given time is fine, but that’s not always how the progression of any given team is. So I picked a team against who we were both at a decade ago, with similar finishes and list profiles.

So we are looking at our club and St Kilda. Obviously we both finished the 2000’s as strong teams, ultimately losing Prelim & Grand Finals. Both with seasoned playing lists and old school coaches, with a drought of premierships and facing challenges off field in a general sense.

So we start with trades in and selected draftees of any note:

2010

Dogs: Wallis, Liberatore, Dahl, and we’re wasteful with Vez & Sherman
Saints: Cripps

2011

Dogs: Roberts, Dickson, C. Smith, Roberts
Saints: Milera, Ross, Michington

2012

Dogs: K. Stevens, Stringer, Macrae, Hrovat, Hamling
Saints: Roberton

2013

Dogs: Crameri, Bontempelli
Saints: Bruce, Savage, Longer, Billing’s, Dunstan, Weller, Acres

2014

Dogs: Boyd, Biggs, McLean, Webb, Dale, Daniel, Cordy
Saints: Membrey, McCartin, Steele, Lonie

2015

Dogs: Suckling, Dunkley, Adams, Williams
Saints: Carlisle, Freeman, Gresham

2016

Dogs: English, Lipinski, Lewis Young (for Koby Stevens Pick), Cloke
Saints: Steele, Long, Battle, Marshall, Koby Stevens (just 17 games for Saints)

2017

Dogs: Schache, Crozier, Naughton, Richards
Saints: Taken directly before Naughton, Clark, Coffield

2018

Dogs: Smith, West, VDM,
Saints: M. King, Bytel, Hannerbury

2019

Dogs: Weightman, Keath, Duryea, Bruce from Saints
Saints: Hill, Howard, Ryder, Jones, Butler

2020

Dogs: Treloar, Hannan, Martin, Ugle-Hagan
Saints: Crouch, Higgins, McKernan, Frawley


Now this part is an ink blot Test. You’ll see what you see. But as obvious it is to say it, you need to trade AND draft well. There is a lot of unfulfilled talent in their better picks over the journey. Trading is important to fill the gaps, but there were a lot of gaps. We on the other hand, have executed those top picks really well across multiple recruiters and list managers. Both clubs have found gold late. Both clubs have lost a #1 KPF to injury too. So bad luck isn’t a major factor.

Where is some luck, Father Sons. Liberatore, Wallis, Cordy, West. The NGA: Jamarra Ugle-Hagan at Pick 1 with lax points rules for last year, plus Buku. But West & Jamarra haven’t played a senior game yet. But I acknowledge this is a good source of talent for us. The luck of the AFEL allowing us to amass points without opening up spots is beyond luck.

But when you consider they had the direct pick before Bontempelli and Naughton, and offered up Bruce and gave us the pick that got us Lewy Young. St Kilda could’ve literally had a huge forwardline of King-Bruce-Naughton being fed by Bontempelli. But that’s us this year.

As for trading, their recent record has the Dodoro’s to it. Looking to win the trade period and sell memberships even if it’s too much. They were so quick to ‘win’ they signed up Crouch, while the very last trade was Treloar (a much better player) for less money. It’s young bull, old bull stuff. Over the recent years we’ve been going after the same players. After woofers announced that Tom Boyd was gettable they tried to get into Tom’s ear to no success. They wanted Crozier & Keath but got nervous by the extra year and money our offer had. I’d argue our best two current defensive aerialists are Keath & Crozier. I guess we should be happy they walked off and let us get both players for 3rd Rounders.

But for some bad decisions to not trade and poor picks etc, they have a defensive unit of Lewy Young, Keath, Crozier, Bonts in the middle, tall forwards King, Bruce, Naughton.

But then the mind turns to coaching. Our Premiership coach is Luke Beveridge. He was going to be a St Kilda Football Club employee before we offered him the head coaching role. St Kilda had Bevo and all they had to go was make the move. They didn’t or wouldn’t, and he was allowed to impart his thoughts on footy in 2015 & 2016 as coach of the year and a premiership coach. In both clubs decade between 2010 and now, we’ve had three coaches and Saints have had 4. So stability in this area isn’t definitive of the likelihood of success.

In the off field study the AFEL tried them for Good Friday Footy, but we got it back and hopefully can keep it. Meet Bain’s had excelled in virtually every job at St Kilda and was overlooked for the CEO vacancy. So what do the dogs do, sign him up immediately to take over as CEO and the runs he has on the board so far are excellent, while St Kilda continue to look erratic especially its the Frankston fiasco.

Just twisting fate a little, we have acquired because of St Kilda: Bains, Bevo, Bonts, Naughton, Bruce, Lewy Young, Keath & Crozier.

Now back to the topic, the media can say that Dogs & Saints finished around the same mark last year and are thus around spot on the Premiership Clock. St Kilda have tried desperately to trade into success, and I can’t think of a team that missed so many good picks winning the big dance. Whether they’re gone for the year or next few is anyone’s guess. Whether they are going to be throwing good money after bad with some recent trades, I suspect they will. Brad Hill is cream in a winning team. $800,000 or so in a losing team, well... but their fans won’t accept the need for a refresh. Then they are back to trying to win the trade period to sell memberships.

On us. Josh Bruce said after he kicked 10 that our Premiership window is now, looking at the age profile. I don’t disagree, but I think that’s the result, not the method. I think we are in a window because no one is worrying about bills not getting paid, something the big clubs have. We have a stubborn coach, high is not all bad. We have (at least for 10 years) good scouts, head recruiters and list managers who have executed at the pointy end of the draft, round some talent on and been focused with being executing really good trades irrespective of winning trade period.

The net result over the decade is us winning a Premiership in 2016. People on the outside look at us both around 2010 and 2020. Our Premiership Clock is carefully crafted and tells impeccable time, but it’s our Clock, not the generic media commentating one. As we aspire higher, and St Kilda lower, we should be able to attract some more talent on limited salary cap who are looking for a flag.

My only advice to St Kilda is look at the last decade in more detail than I. I think a good refresh could turn it around in a couple of years. I hope our understudies in coaching, recruiting, list managing and CEO’ing are ready to keep things going as other clubs come to poach our leaders.

So is that simplistic, or do you see more going on in this decade long snapshot?

bornadog
26-04-2021, 04:00 PM
You are incredible BT

EasternWest
26-04-2021, 04:10 PM
I just think the world's better when BT's on a roll.

Grantysghost
26-04-2021, 04:11 PM
I was thinking the same re attracting talent. We are looking like a great destination right now for those thinking of a move next season or two.

EasternWest
26-04-2021, 04:12 PM
double

EasternWest
26-04-2021, 04:14 PM
St Kilda could’ve literally had a huge forwardline of King-Bruce-Naughton being fed by Bontempelli. But that’s us this year.


That's stark when written like that.

I just think the world's better when BT's on a roll.

bornadog
26-04-2021, 04:16 PM
I just think the world's better when BT's on a roll.
triple

azabob
26-04-2021, 04:19 PM
Far out how I've missed the BT mega post...

azabob
26-04-2021, 04:22 PM
I was thinking the same re attracting talent. We are looking like a great destination right now for those thinking of a move next season or two.

Funnily enough, that's what we said after 2016.

It appears Bains, Power and co M.O is not to over pay or over contract (length) which makes it tough to attract out and out talent looking to change clubs via trade or free agency.

Mantis
26-04-2021, 04:59 PM
Sliding doors and all that, but taking Clark & Coffield with successive picks (who are decent enough players) instead of one of the WA talls (Naughton or Allen) looks a rather poor decision in hindsight.

Billings over Bont was the correct decision at the time given it was thought we reached for Bont at the time... obviously an easy decision now... or even 8-9 months after the draft when it was clear to see the type of player Marcus was going to develop into.

bulldogsthru&thru
26-04-2021, 05:18 PM
Funnily enough, that's what we said after 2016.

It appears Bains, Power and co M.O is not to over pay or over contract (length) which makes it tough to attract out and out talent looking to change clubs via trade or free agency.
I’m ok with this. We’ve got so much talent to retain.

DOG GOD
26-04-2021, 05:23 PM
What an unbelievable read BT. Thank you for taking the time to post that.

comrade
26-04-2021, 05:37 PM
Imagine the Saints with Bont, Petracca, Naughton and Bevo at the helm.

bulldogsthru&thru
26-04-2021, 05:47 PM
Imagine the Saints with Bont, Petracca, Naughton and Bevo at the helm.

I mean...we’ve got 3 out of the 4 and take your pick out of Macrae/Treloar/Libba/Dunkley instead of Petracca. Not bad.

comrade
26-04-2021, 06:00 PM
I mean...we’ve got 3 out of the 4 and take your pick out of Macrae/Treloar/Libba/Dunkley instead of Petracca. Not bad.

Feels good man. God bless the Saints.

jeemak
26-04-2021, 06:15 PM
I stopped reading after you called Patty Vesz a wasted acquisition. With the right support around him he could still make it!

In honesty, look forward to reading this a bit later once/ if I finish work for the evening!

azabob
26-04-2021, 06:51 PM
I’m ok with this. We’ve got so much talent to retain.

Agree 100%. Pick out targets, Crozier, Keith, Duyrea, Martin, Bruce etc.

EasternWest
26-04-2021, 06:57 PM
I stopped reading after you called Patty Vesz a wasted acquisition. With the right support around him he could still make it!


I'd rather get Suckling back.

bulldogsthru&thru
26-04-2021, 07:03 PM
What’s amusing about this comparison is that the saints hold their heads high for their victories against us, whilst we aim for bigger things. Remember, they beat us the year we won the flag and Billings is better than Bont because of one game in 2015 where he was unstoppable.

What’s less amusing is that we nevertheless often lose to them and Billings does carve us up. But I’d still rather win premierships so long may we aim far and they aim short.

Twodogs
26-04-2021, 07:08 PM
Just twisting fate a little, we have acquired because of St Kilda: Bains, Bevo, Bonts, Naughton, Bruce, Lewy Young, Keath & Crozier.



Actually that's twisting the knife a little! Great thread BT.

jeemak
26-04-2021, 07:19 PM
Funnily enough, that's what we said after 2016.

It appears Bains, Power and co M.O is not to over pay or over contract (length) which makes it tough to attract out and out talent looking to change clubs via trade or free agency.

It's becoming reasonably clear that being a destination club isn't all it's cracked up to be. We're not doing too badly as a result of not overpaying big name recruits.

As an aside BT has forgotten Dad, who was drafted alongside Dunkley in the early parts of the 2015 draft.........

Twodogs
26-04-2021, 07:24 PM
It's becoming reasonably clear that being a destination club isn't all it's cracked up to be. We're not doing too badly as a result of not overpaying big name recruits.

As an aside BT has forgotten Dad, who was drafted alongside Dunkley in the early parts of the 2015 draft.........

And a couple of others. Roberts is named twice in 20111, Hamling was recruited in 2014 not 2012 and we also drafted Hamilton in 2014. ( I only remember because I looked them up yesterday or the day before)

jeemak
26-04-2021, 07:26 PM
No Mitch Honeychurch either. And who could forget Fuller!

I'm getting the feeling these dudes were left off for expediency, and not carelessness.

Carry on BT.

comrade
26-04-2021, 07:27 PM
BT did mention 'select draftees'. No one needs reminding that we drafted Collins and Hamilton.

Twodogs
26-04-2021, 07:27 PM
No Mitch Honeychurch either. And who could forget Fuller!

Fergus Greene in 2016.

Twodogs
26-04-2021, 07:29 PM
BT did mention 'select draftees'. No one needs reminding that we drafted Collins and Hamilton.

Fair point. You're certainly right about not needing to be reminded.

jeemak
26-04-2021, 07:29 PM
BT did mention 'select draftees'. No one needs reminding that we drafted Collins and Hamilton.

Ah yes, selected draftees of any note, and not notoriety!

bulldogtragic
26-04-2021, 07:43 PM
BT did mention 'select draftees'. No one needs reminding that we drafted Collins and Hamilton.

Just doing my bit to reduce list management PTSD.

bulldogtragic
26-04-2021, 07:58 PM
Having thought about it some more, how both clubs were in a similar spot a decade ago and where we are, I think it’s like playing Federer or Nadal. Both clubs are the hard working 20’s ranked players playing them in the quarters. Things go bad quickly if you don’t take your chances.

St Kilda look to have missed chances at the draft, trade and with key personnel notably Bevo & Bain’s at a minimum. Then two sets down they’re are trying to hit (trade week) winners non stop which only works for a while. You can’t smash your way out it.

We haven’t been perfect, but we’ve taken our chances brilliantly at the top end of the draft for the most part. Picked the right shots at the right time in trade weeks to strengthen our game, in a deliberate strategic way to beat the competition. Be it Bains, Bevo, Bonts, Naughton, Smith, Bruce, Keath, Treloar etc. . Of course there’s the role of luck, Jamarra for #1 too. We make really smart decisions from top to bottom. I think reflecting on it this arvo, it might be our clubs greatest strength

EasternWest
26-04-2021, 08:01 PM
Fergus Greene in 2016.

Fergus was alright. Would have liked to see him get more opportunity.

bulldogtragic
26-04-2021, 08:10 PM
You are incredible BT


I just think the world's better when BT's on a roll.


Far out how I've missed the BT mega post...

Not seeing the footy last year as legitimate and therefore unable to post about it, I was like George Constanza when he was abstinent. Lots of time, smarter, achieving things. Me, I tons of time and was really productive and learning new things I’d wanted to do but hadn’t done so. Then I thought I’d watch the Good Friday Game. Now I’m back spending an arvo looking at 10 years of Dogs & Saints history while doing absolutely nothing I planned on doing. Now to not read this book I’ve been wanting to read, nor mow tomorrow to create some draft point analysis that gives me a headache for a week.

Grantysghost
26-04-2021, 08:12 PM
Not seeing the footy last year as legitimate and therefore unable to post about it, I was like George Constanza when he was abstinent . Lots of time, smarter, achieving things. Me, I tons of time and was really productive and learning new things I’d wanted to do but hadn’t done so. Then I thought I’d watch the Good Friday Game. Now I’m back spending an arvo looking at 10 years of Dogs & Saints history while doing absolutely nothing I planned on doing. Now to not read this book I’ve been wanting to read, nor mow tomorrow to create some draft point analysis that gives me a headache for a week.

Absolute zero!

Twodogs
26-04-2021, 08:13 PM
Fergus was alright. Would have liked to see him get more opportunity.

I'm always a big fan of the Bendigo boys so I would have loved him to kick on took. Even if he was from Sandhurst FC.

comrade
26-04-2021, 08:14 PM
Not seeing the footy last year as legitimate and therefore unable to post about it, I was like George Constanza when he was abstinent. Lots of time, smarter, achieving things. Me, I tons of time and was really productive and learning new things I’d wanted to do but hadn’t done so. Then I thought I’d watch the Good Friday Game. Now I’m back spending an arvo looking at 10 years of Dogs & Saints history while doing absolutely nothing I planned on doing. Now to not read this book I’ve been wanting to read, nor mow tomorrow to create some draft point analysis that gives me a headache for a week.

And don't we all love it!

Happy Days
26-04-2021, 10:07 PM
Ferg is playing pretty well for Box Hill. I always thought he had a bit of Jack Gunston in him, maybe he’s not done.

comrade
26-04-2021, 10:19 PM
Ferg is playing pretty well for Box Hill. I always thought he had a bit of Jack Gunston in him, maybe he’s not done.

He’s a bit of a Bailey Fritsch type, wiry weird shape but knows where to go and how to catch it. Only 23, I’d like to see him get another crack.

bulldogtragic
23-05-2021, 05:20 PM
I started doing some reading as I wanted to be able to understand the variables that go into ‘The Premiership Clock’. What are/were the decisions in a decade long period between two clubs that have made on field and off field consequences. The concept that a club moves ‘passed midnight’ and automatically moves around is at best a naive concept that some folks in the media push. The idea of indicating where a club is at a given time is fine, but that’s not always how the progression of any given team is. So I picked a team against who we were both at a decade ago, with similar finishes and list profiles.

So we are looking at our club and St Kilda. Obviously we both finished the 2000’s as strong teams, ultimately losing Prelim & Grand Finals. Both with seasoned playing lists and old school coaches, with a drought of premierships and facing challenges off field in a general sense.

So we start with trades in and selected draftees of any note:

2010

Dogs: Wallis, Liberatore, Dahl, and we’re wasteful with Vez & Sherman
Saints: Cripps

2011

Dogs: Roberts, Dickson, C. Smith, Roberts
Saints: Milera, Ross, Michington

2012

Dogs: K. Stevens, Stringer, Macrae, Hrovat, Hamling
Saints: Roberton

2013

Dogs: Crameri, Bontempelli
Saints: Bruce, Savage, Longer, Billing’s, Dunstan, Weller, Acres

2014

Dogs: Boyd, Biggs, McLean, Webb, Dale, Daniel, Cordy
Saints: Membrey, McCartin, Steele, Lonie

2015

Dogs: Suckling, Dunkley, Adams, Williams
Saints: Carlisle, Freeman, Gresham

2016

Dogs: English, Lipinski, Lewis Young (for Koby Stevens Pick), Cloke
Saints: Steele, Long, Battle, Marshall, Koby Stevens (just 17 games for Saints)

2017

Dogs: Schache, Crozier, Naughton, Richards
Saints: Taken directly before Naughton, Clark, Coffield

2018

Dogs: Smith, West, VDM,
Saints: M. King, Bytel, Hannerbury

2019

Dogs: Weightman, Keath, Duryea, Bruce from Saints
Saints: Hill, Howard, Ryder, Jones, Butler

2020

Dogs: Treloar, Hannan, Martin, Ugle-Hagan
Saints: Crouch, Higgins, McKernan, Frawley


Now this part is an ink blot Test. You’ll see what you see. But as obvious it is to say it, you need to trade AND draft well. There is a lot of unfulfilled talent in their better picks over the journey. Trading is important to fill the gaps, but there were a lot of gaps. We on the other hand, have executed those top picks really well across multiple recruiters and list managers. Both clubs have found gold late. Both clubs have lost a #1 KPF to injury too. So bad luck isn’t a major factor.

Where is some luck, Father Sons. Liberatore, Wallis, Cordy, West. The NGA: Jamarra Ugle-Hagan at Pick 1 with lax points rules for last year, plus Buku. But West & Jamarra haven’t played a senior game yet. But I acknowledge this is a good source of talent for us. The luck of the AFEL allowing us to amass points without opening up spots is beyond luck.

But when you consider they had the direct pick before Bontempelli and Naughton, and offered up Bruce and gave us the pick that got us Lewy Young. St Kilda could’ve literally had a huge forwardline of King-Bruce-Naughton being fed by Bontempelli. But that’s us this year.

As for trading, their recent record has the Dodoro’s to it. Looking to win the trade period and sell memberships even if it’s too much. They were so quick to ‘win’ they signed up Crouch, while the very last trade was Treloar (a much better player) for less money. It’s young bull, old bull stuff. Over the recent years we’ve been going after the same players. After woofers announced that Tom Boyd was gettable they tried to get into Tom’s ear to no success. They wanted Crozier & Keath but got nervous by the extra year and money our offer had. I’d argue our best two current defensive aerialists are Keath & Crozier. I guess we should be happy they walked off and let us get both players for 3rd Rounders.

But for some bad decisions to not trade and poor picks etc, they have a defensive unit of Lewy Young, Keath, Crozier, Bonts in the middle, tall forwards King, Bruce, Naughton.

But then the mind turns to coaching. Our Premiership coach is Luke Beveridge. He was going to be a St Kilda Football Club employee before we offered him the head coaching role. St Kilda had Bevo and all they had to go was make the move. They didn’t or wouldn’t, and he was allowed to impart his thoughts on footy in 2015 & 2016 as coach of the year and a premiership coach. In both clubs decade between 2010 and now, we’ve had three coaches and Saints have had 4. So stability in this area isn’t definitive of the likelihood of success.

In the off field study the AFEL tried them for Good Friday Footy, but we got it back and hopefully can keep it. Meet Bain’s had excelled in virtually every job at St Kilda and was overlooked for the CEO vacancy. So what do the dogs do, sign him up immediately to take over as CEO and the runs he has on the board so far are excellent, while St Kilda continue to look erratic especially its the Frankston fiasco.

Just twisting fate a little, we have acquired because of St Kilda: Bains, Bevo, Bonts, Naughton, Bruce, Lewy Young, Keath & Crozier.

Now back to the topic, the media can say that Dogs & Saints finished around the same mark last year and are thus around spot on the Premiership Clock. St Kilda have tried desperately to trade into success, and I can’t think of a team that missed so many good picks winning the big dance. Whether they’re gone for the year or next few is anyone’s guess. Whether they are going to be throwing good money after bad with some recent trades, I suspect they will. Brad Hill is cream in a winning team. $800,000 or so in a losing team, well... but their fans won’t accept the need for a refresh. Then they are back to trying to win the trade period to sell memberships.

On us. Josh Bruce said after he kicked 10 that our Premiership window is now, looking at the age profile. I don’t disagree, but I think that’s the result, not the method. I think we are in a window because no one is worrying about bills not getting paid, something the big clubs have. We have a stubborn coach, high is not all bad. We have (at least for 10 years) good scouts, head recruiters and list managers who have executed at the pointy end of the draft, round some talent on and been focused with being executing really good trades irrespective of winning trade period.

The net result over the decade is us winning a Premiership in 2016. People on the outside look at us both around 2010 and 2020. Our Premiership Clock is carefully crafted and tells impeccable time, but it’s our Clock, not the generic media commentating one. As we aspire higher, and St Kilda lower, we should be able to attract some more talent on limited salary cap who are looking for a flag.

My only advice to St Kilda is look at the last decade in more detail than I. I think a good refresh could turn it around in a couple of years. I hope our understudies in coaching, recruiting, list managing and CEO’ing are ready to keep things going as other clubs come to poach our leaders.

So is that simplistic, or do you see more going on in this decade long snapshot?

Feel free to have a read of the OP above. Seems pretty topical right now.

Bulldog Joe
24-05-2021, 09:57 AM
Feel free to have a read of the OP above. Seems pretty topical right now.

You can only agree from that information, that we have performed very well on our list management.

Added to the success of our off field and we are clearly in the best shape in club history.