This is our biggest test since October 2016

[bulldogtragic]

Win: Finish the round on Top of Ladder with 20% buffer. Plus breathing space within top 2, plus 20%+.

The last time we finished on top Round 14+ was in 1998. The chance to equal this club best for 23 years. We ticked off best start to a season since 1948 earlier this year. Now we have the opportunity to turn best start since 1946 into best ladder position (on top) since 1998. With many games against bottom 6 teams coming up, this could lead us to our first minor premiership.

This is our biggest test since GF day 2016.

Whilst we are travelling to Geelong, it’s a bus trip and not flights and airports. Routines in place. The home ground advantage is watered down significantly by 30,000 fans pumping the pressure on umpires and giving them enthusiasm and momentum banned from attending. Pluses for us include a hard game for them at Port last week, while we are fresh. Plus there’s numerous possible inclusions from Maclean, Richards, Garcia, Lipinski, McNeil, Wood?, Martin?, Jamarra.


Alternatively, lose and we fall back in the pack chasing top 2. Albeit with better percentage.


Huge reward. Huge risk. Huge stakes... Huge Test. I think we are that good. Now it’s time to stand up to the test and be that good.

[bornadog]

I know we can do it.

Our midfield have a real challenge on their hands and a lot weighs on their shoulders.

[The bulldog tragician]

I feel jittery too but I think we can sometimes overstate the meanings of every single match. In 2009 I thought we’d banished the Geelong hoodoo at last when we beat them towards the end of the year to establish ourselves as top 4. They still beat us first week in finals. Having said that, with our disappointing efforts v Melb and Richmond it’s important for our credibility and self belief to perform strongly.

[BornInDroopSt'54]

Yes and quite simply we are in a great position if we win; on top with only ten matches before finals.
Over and above that reality is the chance for revenge, to level the ledger somewhat and start a new plot versus Cats and GMBH.
This is personal and historic.

[bulldogsthru&thru]

Realistically we are 1-2 in crunch games this year. I'm not counting the eagles game as it was too early in the season.

This shapes up to be the biggest of the season. We're playing the very team trying to take our top 2 spot away from us. A win gives us breathing space. A loss sends us into the pack and threatens not only a top 4 finish but our credibility as genuine threats.

Win or lose, what I want to see is a solid effort, especially from our mids when they don't have the ball. Our effort was well down in that 1st quarter against Melbourne, but we were also totally outplayed by Richmond for a half and Melbourne for most of the game. Geelong will be no different. Chris Scott is an excellent coach and we all remember what happened last year when we played them. Got out to an early 6 goal lead and still lost. How? Geelong maintained possession. We'll need to be harder and smarter than we've shown in our 2 losses this year. I'm confident we can win if we do that but it's a big question mark for us in crunch games.

[bulldogtragic]

Delving into our records of being top of the ladder from Round 14+ (Deep into the season)

From 1925, Joinging the VFL:

1938 (finals year): Best was second spot on the ladder
* 1944 (finals year): One Round on top of the ladder
1945 (missed finals): Best was second spot on the ladder
1946 (best start to a year): Best was second spot on the ladder
1953 (prelim year): Best was second spot on the ladder
1954 (premiership year): Best was second spot on the ladder
1961 (GF year): None
1985 (prelim year): Best was second spot on the ladder
* 1992 (prelim year): One Round on top of the ladder
* 1997 (prelim year): One Round on top of the ladder
* 1998 (prelim year): Five Rounds on top of the ladder
2008 (prelim year): Best was second spot on the ladder
2009 & 2010 (prelim years): None
2016 (premiership year): None
2021: ????

Only just four of our teams/squads in nearly a century has been a top of the ladder at Round 14 onwards, so deep into a season. This team of ours could be just the fifth to do it in our Cubs VFL/AFL history if they take the opportunity Friday night.

[SonofScray]

Huge game to really cement the belief. We need to get the job done in this type of scenario I think, given the Richmond and Melbourne losses.

[Eastdog]

Huge match. Would be a big scalp if we got the win down there. Would put us back on top of the ladder. I hope the week off has recharged the batteries and we are roaring to go come matchday.

[jeemak]

Realistically we are 1-2 in crunch games this year. I'm not counting the eagles game as it was too early in the season.

This shapes up to be the biggest of the season. We're playing the very team trying to take our top 2 spot away from us. A win gives us breathing space. A loss sends us into the pack and threatens not only a top 4 finish but our credibility as genuine threats.

Win or lose, what I want to see is a solid effort, especially from our mids when they don't have the ball. Our effort was well down in that 1st quarter against Melbourne, but we were also totally outplayed by Richmond for a half and Melbourne for most of the game. Geelong will be no different. Chris Scott is an excellent coach and we all remember what happened last year when we played them. Got out to an early 6 goal lead and still lost. How? Geelong maintained possession. We'll need to be harder and smarter than we've shown in our 2 losses this year. I'm confident we can win if we do that but it's a big question mark for us in crunch games.

We also had a fair lick of the injury lollie and they simply out ran us.

I know I can be a lot more forgiving of our losses than some/ most here, what I'm looking for though is a four quarter effort where we've shown up, we're competitive and our attention to detail either gets us over the line or theirs does for them. Because that's the difference between good sides who are both up for the task.

The talking heads may make a big deal of the outcome of the game either way, but the reality is we're just beyond the half way mark in the season and there's a lot of water to go under the bridge between now and when the whips start to crack.

As for the OP, our final against St Kilda was our biggest test since 2016 and remains so even to date. However there are parallels and we need to account for ourselves much better than we did in that game.

[jeemak]

If that's too contrary to the OP then here's an alternative, BT you're amazing and we're stoked to have you back posting.

[boydogs]

Melbourne game was bigger, we won't be at our best for these games until we get Dunkley & Treloar back

[jeemak]

Melbourne game was bigger, we won't be at our best for these games until we get Dunkley & Treloar back

Does having Dunkley and Trelaor back in the future really account for how we show up? I know it's an intangible to an extent, but does a poor showing get excused because we we're undermanned?

[boydogs]

Does having Dunkley and Trelaor back in the future really account for how we show up? I know it's an intangible to an extent, but does a poor showing get excused because we we're undermanned?

I reckon we would stand a little taller with them in the side

[MrMahatma]

Melbourne game was bigger, we won't be at our best for these games until we get Dunkley & Treloar back

Against Melb we were missing AT, Dunks and Martin.
Against Rich we were missing English and Dunks.

We haven’t been “full strength” much at all this season. That’s the nature of the beast. Few teams ever are full strength. Injury luck will have a fair say in the season as it always does.

[AshMac]

Big game - every chance to beat them with the circumstances. I think we’ll struggle with their forward line whick makes dominance through the middle and efficiency up front more important. Big match. I’ll be happy with a solid effort for 4 quarters - can’t be another game like the demons

[Bumper Bulldogs]

I agree with mort here. Huge game and the key take out will be, does our game stand up and do the coaches and posher group believe in it. A loss will start to have the little man on the shoulder start whispering in the ears of the boys.

A win and we are set with full momentum rolling into the back end of the season.

I still think we will get over them but it’s gonna take a 4 quarter grind to get them. It won’t come easy

[Mantis]

Against Melb we were missing AT, Dunks and Martin.
Against Rich we were missing English and Dunks.

We haven’t been “full strength” much at all this season. That’s the nature of the beast. Few teams ever are full strength. Injury luck will have a fair say in the season as it always does.

Wood, Hannan & Gardner also missed against Melb.

As mentioned you're likely to never have your best 22 on the park given the nature of the game, but we've had to chop & change more than the other challengers as per the amount of players we've played this year.

[1eyedog]

Cats have a full list to choose from really wishing we had one of Treloar or Dunks to throw in there, but we don’t.

[1eyedog]

Does having Dunkley and Trelaor back in the future really account for how we show up? I know it's an intangible to an extent, but does a poor showing get excused because we we're undermanned?

Of course not but it makes it that much tougher to win. They’re at full strength and we are missing two top 10 players. It’s harder. Agree that the effort needs to be there.

[Yankee Hotel Foxtrot]

Of course not but it makes it that much tougher to win. They’re at full strength and we are missing two top 10 players. It’s harder. Agree that the effort needs to be there.


Which is why this could be a season defining win, should we pull it off.
I am really confident our energy will be right this time without a crowd.
As to whether we're good enough, time will tell.
Should we win, I suspect this could be similar in effect to our win against Sydney in 2015. It would send belief amongst the group through the roof that we're capable of beating the top teams.

[DOG GOD]

Geel at full strength and at home is pretty much going to be our biggest test this year. A shocking record down there, and the addition of Cameron makes them even harder. The fact we have Dunks and Treloar out is massive bad luck, and they both would thrive on this match.

As much as the mids get a say in the result, the fwds will have a massive say as well. If we expect to just bomb it in and Naughton, Bruce and English to pluck them, it most likely won’t happen against Stewart and Co, however if Geel play a similar style, I’m not that hopeful that Cordy and Gardner in particular will be able to nullify Geel’s fwds.

[Vred]

Agree with everybody here. Biggest game of the season coming up, gotta pinch this one.

Question is, now that 7000 fans are allowed to attend, does that help or hinder us? I've started to notice that this team is thriving on the negative energy given by oppo' fans, you could see it vs Port and vs Freo, so maybe having fans no matter what the skew of Dogs/Cats fans are, is a good thing.

[comrade]

Agree with everybody here. Biggest game of the season coming up, gotta pinch this one.

Question is, now that 7000 fans are allowed to attend, does that help or hinder us? I've started to notice that this team is thriving on the negative energy given by oppo' fans, you could see it vs Port and vs Freo, so maybe having fans no matter what the skew of Dogs/Cats fans are, is a good thing.

I think it’ll be fine. Just enough fan noise to provide some energy and spark to the atmosphere, not enough to intimidate umpires into making home town decisions all night.

[bulldogsthru&thru]

Agree with everybody here. Biggest game of the season coming up, gotta pinch this one.

Question is, now that 7000 fans are allowed to attend, does that help or hinder us? I've started to notice that this team is thriving on the negative energy given by oppo' fans, you could see it vs Port and vs Freo, so maybe having fans no matter what the skew of Dogs/Cats fans are, is a good thing.

One thing's for sure. Cody will thrive on the fans' energy.

[ratsmac]

One thing's for sure. Cody will thrive on the fans' energy.

Send Cody to the backline to stir up Cameron just for fun I say!

[The Bulldogs Bite]

Let's hope it's a tight, contested finals like game so that Cameron and Rohan can generate 3 kicks between them.

[Bulldog Joe]

Let's hope it's a tight, contested finals like game so that Cameron and Rohan can generate 3 kicks between them.

Happy for a contested finals like game, but prefer it to be not to tight.

Lets come up firing and put them away.

[Bulldog4life]

I think it’ll be fine. Just enough fan noise to provide some energy and spark to the atmosphere, not enough to intimidate umpires into making home town decisions all night.

Agree. Jacko said the other night he was happy with the supporters being there. Commented how sterile it is with no crowd...or words to that effect. Mentioned Melbourne's game.

[BornInDroopSt'54]

Send Cody to the backline to stir up Cameron just for fun I say!
You made me realise JJ owes Cameron a long lay off with a busted clavical.

[bulldogtragic]

We were one good last minute from fully passing that test. But the change of fixture has me thinking it again.

Beat Melbourne. Go to top of the ladder.

With games vs 16th & 17th, plus an average playing Essendon & Port who should’ve been beaten by a poor St Kilda on the weekend. Get in front of the rest, stay in front of the rest.

Beat Melbourne and if we win four winnable games (3 and possibly all 4 in Victoria if Tassie knock the Hawks game back). 1st time minor premiers and 100% lock in a home final. Send a message back to the Dees and other finalists. Get Port or Brisbane in week one.

Lose, and hopefully it’s a matter of fighting with Geelong which makes no real difference.

Huge test. Huge reward on offer. Chance to redeem the previous poor loss. As big as it gets.

[1eyedog]

I'm OK with a loss this week as long as we win the rest of our matches. Wood, Dunks, VDM back in two weeks will set us up for a push nicely.

[comrade]

We were one good last minute from fully passing that test. But the change of fixture has me thinking it again.

Beat Melbourne. Go to top of the ladder.

With games vs 16th & 17th, plus an average playing Essendon & Port who should’ve been beaten by a poor St Kilda on the weekend. Get in front of the rest, stay in front of the rest.

Beat Melbourne and if we win four winnable games (3 and possibly all 4 in Victoria if Tassie knock the Hawks game back). 1st time minor premiers and 100% lock in a home final. Send a message back to the Dees and other finalists. Get Port or Brisbane in week one.

Lose, and hopefully it’s a matter of fighting with Geelong which makes no real difference.

Huge test. Huge reward on offer. Chance to redeem the previous poor loss. As big as it gets.

Yep, it's time we make a statement.

[bulldogtragic]

I'm OK with a loss this week as long as we win the rest of our matches. Wood, Dunks, VDM back in two weeks will set us up for a push nicely.

Pretty much rules out the minor premiership (6 points behind the Dees). This group should have a red hot crack at finally achieving it. A win puts us in a very strong position for that and securing the home final. This is a special group. I’d love for them to deliver something no other side has, while setting us up for finals. I’d love to put some demons in the Dees players heads too.

[1eyedog]

Pretty much rules out the minor premiership (6 points behind the Dees). This group should have a red hot crack at finally achieving it. A win puts us in a very strong position for that and securing the home final. This is a special group. I’d love for them to deliver something no other side has, while setting us up for finals. I’d love to put some demons in the Dees players heads too.

Yeah 100%. I think I'm just accepting of a loss now and I'll be OK with it as the alternative will still be pretty good (unless we lose copious amounts of % which seems unlikely).

[Grantysghost]

I'm pretty resigned to a loss this week and I have no idea why.

Dunkley missing this game, fmd!

[DOG GOD]

I'm pretty resigned to a loss this week and I have no idea why.

Dunkley missing this game, fmd!

Dunks missing, English main ruck against Gawn, the lever/May factor (with Naughton in we will just bomb like we did against GC), no crowd.

[comrade]

Dunks missing, English main ruck against Gawn, the lever/May factor (with Naughton in we will just bomb like we did against GC), no crowd.

I'm hopeful that Bevo has learnt from the earlier loss along with observing what the Hawks and GWS have done in recent times. If we lose in the same way I'll be ropeable.

[Grantysghost]

I'm hopeful that Bevo has learnt from the earlier loss along with observing what the Hawks and GWS have done in recent times. If we lose in the same way I'll be ropeable.

No Harmes last week, I expect he goes to Libba. Was he injured or dropped?

Edit : He had an ear infection probably be back.

[comrade]

No Harmes last week, I expect he goes to Libba. Was he injured or dropped?

Edit : He had an ear infection probably be back.

Yep, that's pretty much as bad as it gets for the Demons this year. Never seen a team get such a dream run.

[Grantysghost]

Yep, that's pretty much as bad as it gets for the Demons this year. Never seen a team get such a dream run.

Of all the games to lose Dunks with their hard tag on Libba. I need to move on ha.

[comrade]

Of all the games to lose Dunks with their hard tag on Libba. I need to move on ha.

To make it worse, we should have actually been playing them after their slog in the NT.

[bulldogsthru&thru]

Ok what works in our favour and not in theirs? I’m yet to see anything go against them this year and it’s continuing.

[Grantysghost]

To make it worse, we should have actually been playing them after their slog in the NT.

https://media.giphy.com/media/ORdLCdjmBHtte/giphy.gif

[The Bulldogs Bite]

What's the odds we lose, finish third and have to play Geelong at their shit heap first week of finals?

[josie]

This is just the kind of game we would win in years gone by-backs against the wall, injuries to key players…..

A statement game. Can imagine Bevo revving up the boys. We might just pull it off. We are not in red hot form but neither are the Dees.

[The bulldog tragician]

Stats aren’t everything, but this is interesting. Champion Data say there are for pillars to premiership success: clearances, post-clearance contest numbers, ball movement and defending the opposition’s ball movement…and Geelong is the only team highly rated in On this week’s episode of Pure Footy, analyst Daniel Hoyne said the four “premiership pillars” were clearances, post-clearance contest numbers, ball movement and defending the opposition’s ball movement. Geelong rate best.

The Cats rank second in the AFL for clearances, second for winning post-clearance contests, third for ball movement and fourth for depending ball movement.

The Bulldogs are second on the premiership pillars ladder, ranking No.1 for clearances and defending ball movement and No.3 for post-clearance contests, but No.10 for moving the footy.

Melbourne is third with clearances (No.11) a surprising weakness, while the Lions are fourth despite being the third-worst team in the competition at moving the footy.

I wonder if our “ moving the footy” metric has dropped off relatively recently. Also Melbourne aren’t the great clearance team I thought they were.

https://i.postimg.cc/ZKNFqF3x/17-ADB38-A-3-DE2-455-A-A721-0750-C9-A4-FC50.jpg (https://postimages.org/)

[Happy Days]

Yep, that's pretty much as bad as it gets for the Demons this year. Never seen a team get such a dream run.

But Adam Tomlinson is so important to their structure!

[josie]

Interesting analysis bulldogstragic.

Such an open year. Been thinking for a few weeks Geelong look damn good. Will they ever fall off the cliff? Swans with a fit & firing Buddy and more run & carry than in 2016 scary too.

The fact we almost beat Cats at Geelong makes me think if we play with ferocity and kick truly we can beat anyone.

[comrade]

But Adam Tomlinson is so important to their structure!

Haha.

His job was (and Harrison Petty's is now) basically standing in front of his opponent to make sure Jake Lever is on his own.

[Happy Days]

Haha.

His job was (and Harrison Petty's is now) basically standing in front of his opponent to make sure Jake Lever is on his own.

Petty is a better player than Tomlinson and has been the whole time; I was really impressed by him as a forward when we played them in 2019 and if he stayed out of their side any longer I was going to advocate for us to look at bringing him in.

[bornadog]

Also Melbourne aren’t the great clearance team I thought they were.



The other metric is Contested Poss, and Melbourne are ranked first. We are 4th and surprisingly Cats 7th.

I want the win this week as we need to show we can beat the top teams.

[dog town]

Our ball movement has dropped away for a few reasons.

1- our territory game has dropped away so we are not winning it back where we want .
2- Teams are refusing to go quick against us when we do get territory. Really trying not to give the ball back to us in bad spots which would allow our half backs to line up and create those scoring chains.
3-I also think going a bit taller down back at times has had an impact. Daniel moving up field to help cover Treloar/Dunkley would also be a reason.

[Mitcha]

Looking at the North Melbourne result and Gold Coast’s first half today puts our recent games against them in perspective. We are not at our best but still finding ways to win, unlike the full strength Dees. Learn from our last meeting and we win tonight.

[GVGjr]

Looking at the North Melbourne result and Gold Coast’s first half today puts our recent games against them in perspective. We are not at our best but still finding ways to win, unlike the full strength Dees. Learn from our last meeting and we win tonight.

It's a good point, both teams are performing so our wins were in the end more than decent.